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CTO Realty Growth (CTO)
NYSE:CTO
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CTO Realty Growth
(NYSE:CTO)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(8.02% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by improved balance-sheet risk and a constructive 2026 operating/guidance backdrop, reinforced by an uptrend in price. The main constraints are inconsistent profitability (including negative EBITDA margin in 2025) and uneven free cash flow, with valuation support coming more from the high dividend yield than earnings-based metrics.
Positive Factors
Material Deleveraging
Eliminating total debt in 2025 materially lowers financial risk and interest burden, expanding strategic flexibility for acquisitions, capital recycling, and dividend support. This durable balance-sheet improvement gives management optionality to pursue accretive investments or return capital without near-term refinancing pressure.
Strong Leasing & NOI Trends
Record occupancy and mid-single-digit same‑property NOI growth reflect durable tenant demand and pricing power at the portfolio level. Combined with large rent spreads and an SNO pipeline, this supports recurring rental cash flows and underpins multi-quarter FFO/AFFO growth if leasing momentum continues to translate into stabilized cash rents.
Revenue Growth & Cash Conversion
Sustained revenue growth with stable, high gross margins points to resilient property-level economics. Operating cash flow strengthened in 2024–2025 and improved cash conversion (>3x net income in 2025), providing a more reliable base to fund dividends, capex, and reinvestment over the medium term despite episodic capital spending.
Negative Factors
Volatile Profitability
Large swings in net income and a negative EBITDA margin in 2025 signal inconsistent operating profitability. For a REIT, this undermines predictability of FFO-driven dividends and makes multi-quarter forecasting sensitive to timing of asset sales, lease commencements, and noncore disruptions, elevating execution risk for sustained earnings improvement.
Elevated Leverage Risk
Despite zero total debt at year-end, pro forma leverage metrics (net debt/EBITDA ~6.4x) remain elevated and the Texas acquisition will temporarily push leverage higher. Reliance on timely asset sales and pipeline rent to delever creates structural refinancing and execution risk if market or leasing timing slips, constraining strategic flexibility.
Volatile Free Cash Flow
Lumpy capex and uneven free cash flow reduce predictability of discretionary spending, capital recycling, and dividend coverage. Persistent FCF volatility forces reliance on asset sales or revolver liquidity for growth or deleveraging, raising the structural risk that funding plans and return targets will be missed if capital markets or disposals slow.
CTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$632.96M
Dividend Yield8.56%
Average Volume (3M)229.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)243.3
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth23.84%
EPS Growth-312.04%
CountryUS
Employees37
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.82
Shares Outstanding32,559,590
10 Day Avg. Volume220,374
30 Day Avg. Volume229,229
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.30
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio9.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-74.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside8.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$159.68M
CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a Florida-based publicly traded real estate company, which owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.4 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States and an approximately 23.5% interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease real estate investment trust (NYSE: PINE).
How the Company Makes MoneyCTO Realty Growth generates revenue primarily through rental income derived from its portfolio of leased properties. The company typically enters into long-term lease agreements with tenants, ensuring a stable and predictable cash flow. Additionally, CTO may realize profits through property appreciation and strategic property sales. The company's revenue model is bolstered by its focus on acquiring properties in high-demand locations, which attracts reliable tenants and supports rental growth. Significant partnerships with property management firms and real estate brokers further enhance its ability to identify and acquire lucrative investment opportunities, contributing to its overall earnings.
CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive operational and strategic picture: strong leasing momentum (Q4 and full-year), record occupancy, accretive acquisitions and dispositions, improved liquidity and an upward earnings outlook for 2026. Headwinds include modest total same-property NOI growth driven by a few noncore issues, timing shifts in signed-not-open recognition (reduced near-term visibility), temporary downtime from anchor conversions, and still-elevated leverage that will require asset recycling or pipeline rent to meaningfully reduce. On balance the positive operational trends, clear pipeline, and forward guidance outweigh the challenges, but execution on timing and deleveraging will be important to sustain the outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Leased Occupancy
Leased occupancy reached a record 95.9% at year-end, reflecting strong leasing and portfolio demand.
Strong Shopping Center Same-Property NOI Growth
Same-property NOI for shopping centers increased 4.3% in Q4 2025 (shopping centers represent 93% of total same-property NOI), driving portfolio operating growth.
Robust Leasing Activity and Rent Escalation
Q4 signed 189,000 sq ft (167,000 sq ft comparable) with a cash rent increase of 31%; full-year signed 671,000 sq ft (592,000 sq ft comparable) with a cash rent increase of 24%.
Progress Re-Tenanting Anchor Spaces and Strong Rent Spread
Resolved 7 of 10 anchor vacancies in 2025 totaling 177,000 sq ft; company expects a positive cash rent spread of ~60% (high end of previously disclosed target).
Signed-Not-Open Pipeline Supporting Near-Term Earnings
Signed-not-open (SNO) pipeline totals $6.1 million (~5.8% of annual cash base rents) with almost half expected to be recognized in 2026 and 100% in 2027, positioning for meaningful earnings growth.
Acquisitions and Yield Profile
Acquired Pompano Citi Center for $65.2M (509k sq ft, 92% occupied plus 62k sq ft shelf space) and closed $166M of investments in 2025 at a weighted average initial cash yield of 9%.
Capital Recycling and Disposition Execution
Sold The Shops at Legacy North for $78M at a cash exit cap in the low 5%, demonstrating ability to execute value-add strategy and recycle proceeds into higher-yielding assets.
Solid Liquidity and Improved Leverage
Year-end liquidity of $167M ( $149M revolver availability + $18M cash); net debt/EBITDA improved to 6.4x from 6.7x in prior quarter and only $17.8M of debt maturing in 2026.
Share Repurchases and Capital Return
Repurchased $9.3M of common stock in 2025 at a weighted average price of $16.27 per share, reflecting capital return activity.
2026 Financial Guidance
Initial 2026 guidance: core FFO $1.98–$2.03 / diluted share and AFFO $2.11–$2.16 / diluted share; key assumptions include $100M–$200M of investments at 8.0%–8.5% initial yield and shopping center same-property NOI growth of 3.5%–4.5%.
Negative Updates
Lower Total Same-Property NOI (Impact from Noncore Assets)
Total same-property NOI (including 4 noncore properties) increased only 1.1% in Q4, negatively impacted by noncore issues including Fidelity vacating nearly half of a 212k sq ft office property in Albuquerque and reduced percentage rent from beachfront restaurants in Daytona Beach.
Timing Changes in Signed-Not-Open Recognition
The portion of SNO expected to be recognized in 2026 declined (quarter-to-quarter reconciliation fell from prior disclosed levels due in part to sale of the Legacy asset and timing shifts), creating less near-term certainty for 2026 recognition.
Temporary Downtime and Leasing Lag from Anchor Conversions
Backfilling large anchor boxes caused temporary downtime; while this drove higher eventual rents, it reduced near-term occupancy/rent contribution and will ramp (~half) into 2026 and be fully online in 2027.
Leverage Still Elevated
Net debt/EBITDA remains relatively elevated at 6.4x; the planned Texas acquisition will temporarily increase leverage back toward the start-of-quarter level and management expects to rely on asset sales and pipeline rent to deleverage.
Core FFO Per Share Flat YoY Despite Higher Aggregate FFO
Full-year core FFO increased to $60.5M (+26.3% YoY) but core FFO per diluted share was $1.87 vs $1.88 prior year (a slight decline of ~0.5%), reflecting share count/leverage changes.
Lengthy Lease-Up at Some Assets
Certain value-add projects (e.g., Shops at Legacy North) took longer to lease up than anticipated, delaying expected returns before disposition and affecting short-term pipeline composition.
Concentration and Market Allocation Considerations
Geographic concentration (large allocations in Southeast markets such as Atlanta historically) and selective avoidance of low-yield grocer-driven assets may limit immediate deployable inventory in target yield ranges.
Uncertainty Around Structured Investment/Loan Repayments
Management expects certain loans to be repaid (e.g., Watters/founders expected to repay) and forecasted draws on other development loans (e.g., Revana) — creating some variability in near-term liquidity and reinvestment plans.
Company Guidance
CTO's initial 2026 guidance calls for core FFO per diluted share of $1.98–$2.03 and AFFO per diluted share of $2.11–$2.16, built on assumptions of $100–$200 million of investment activity (including structured investments) at a weighted average initial yield of 8.0%–8.5%, shopping‑center same‑property NOI growth of 3.5%–4.5% and G&A of $19.5–$20.0 million; management also highlighted a $6.1 million signed‑not‑open pipeline (≈5.8% of annual cash base rents) with roughly half expected to be recognized in 2026 and 100% in 2027, noted that NOI cadence should improve through the year, and reminded investors of a strong liquidity position ($167 million total: $149 million revolver availability and $18 million cash), net debt/EBITDA of 6.4x (down from 6.7x), only $17.8 million maturing in 2026 and that the planned ~$83 million Texas acquisition may temporarily raise leverage before anticipated deleveraging via asset sales and rent commencements.CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue growth and stable gross margins support the business, and leverage risk improved materially with debt eliminated in 2025. Offsetting this are volatile profitability (2024 loss and negative EBITDA margin in 2025) and uneven free cash flow driven by lumpy capex.Income Statement
Revenue has grown consistently over the last several years (notably accelerating in 2025), and gross margins have remained strong and stable (~68%–75%), supporting resilient property-level economics. However, earnings quality is uneven: net profit swung from very strong profits (2020–2021) to a loss in 2024 before turning modestly positive again in 2025. Profitability also looks volatile at the operating level given the sharp EBITDA margin reversal in 2025 (negative), which is a meaningful red flag despite higher revenue.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved materially: total debt moved from elevated levels in 2021–2024 to zero in 2025, driving the debt-to-equity ratio down to 0.0 and meaningfully reducing financial risk. Equity and total assets are sizable and have generally grown over time, supporting balance-sheet capacity. The trade-off is that returns on shareholder capital are currently low (ROE ~2% in 2025), and prior years included periods of negative or modest returns, suggesting the asset base is not consistently generating strong bottom-line results.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is consistently positive and strengthened in 2024–2025, which is important for a REIT’s funding flexibility. Cash generation relative to net income improved sharply in 2025 (operating cash flow was over 3x net income), indicating better cash conversion that year. Offsetting this, free cash flow has been highly volatile, including very large negative free cash flow in 2020 and 2022, and free cash flow declined in 2025 versus 2024, pointing to lumpy capital spending and less predictable residual cash generation.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 149.54M | 124.52M | 109.12M | 82.32M | 70.27M |
| Gross Profit | -8.41M | 91.30M | 78.94M | 59.46M | 47.84M |
| EBITDA | 97.48M | 75.03M | 71.70M | 46.56M | 55.78M |
| Net Income | 10.09M | -1.97M | 5.53M | 3.16M | 29.94M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.26B | 1.18B | 989.67M | 986.54M | 733.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.79M | 48.68M | 49.66M | 61.37M | 49.65M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 534.41M | 506.23M | 455.53M | 284.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 696.56M | 568.85M | 532.14M | 481.77M | 302.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 567.35M | 612.80M | 457.53M | 504.77M | 430.48M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 64.60M | 69.35M | 46.42M | -257.83M | 27.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 64.60M | 69.35M | 46.42M | 56.10M | 27.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -71.50M | -242.15M | -52.56M | -267.63M | -102.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 30.66M | 172.35M | 2.77M | 201.38M | 72.91M |
CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis
Positive
19.44
Price Trends
18.29
Positive
17.39
Positive
16.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.41
Negative
63.52
Neutral
72.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.54, above the 50-day MA of 18.29, and above the 200-day MA of 16.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTO.
CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis
CTO Realty Growth disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $504.33M | 15.11 | 10.91% | 9.03% | 7.71% | -5.37% | |
69 Neutral | $632.96M | 243.30 | 1.71% | 8.56% | 23.84% | -312.04% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $465.36M | -75.02 | -4.39% | 5.74% | ― | ― | |
61 Neutral | $476.11M | -76.87 | ― | 9.50% | -39.94% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $609.39M | 88.98 | 5.53% | 11.56% | 4.95% | -6.49% | |
54 Neutral | $775.58M | -2.25 | -30.58% | 5.44% | -16.50% | -640.43% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
19.53
2.35
13.68%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.48
-2.13
-14.56%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
23.48
-0.80
-3.31%
AHH
Armada Hoffler Properties
5.95
-2.68
-31.01%
PKST
Peakstone Realty Trust
20.84
10.37
99.04%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
16.43
0.35
2.18%
CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
CTO Realty Growth Reports Strong Q4 and 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, CTO Realty Growth reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by net income of $0.82 per diluted share for the quarter and $0.08 for the year, alongside core FFO of $1.87 and AFFO of $1.97 per diluted share for 2025. Shopping center same-property NOI rose 4.4% for the year, with leased occupancy reaching a record 95.9% as the company executed 671,000 square feet of leasing at strong rent spreads and built a $6.1 million signed-not-open pipeline.
The company closed $165.9 million of investments in 2025, including the acquisition of two shopping centers in Atlanta and South Florida and the Pompano Citi Centre near Fort Lauderdale, while agreeing to buy a 384,000-square-foot center in South Texas after year-end. It also completed $85.1 million of property sales at mid-5% cap rates, realized $20.9 million of gains, managed net debt at 6.4 times pro forma adjusted EBITDA with $167.1 million in liquidity, and repurchased $9.3 million of common stock, underscoring an active capital recycling strategy and a push to enhance portfolio quality and earnings growth.
The most recent analyst rating on (CTO) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CTO Realty Growth stock, see the CTO Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.