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CTO Realty Growth (CTO)
NYSE:CTO
US Market

CTO Realty Growth (CTO) AI Stock Analysis

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CTO Realty Growth

(NYSE:CTO)

Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▼(-0.23%Downside)
CTO Realty Growth's overall stock score is primarily influenced by strong revenue and cash flow growth, despite challenges in profitability and debt management. The earnings call provided a positive outlook, though technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. The high dividend yield is attractive, but negative earnings impact valuation. These factors combined reflect moderate investment potential with notable risks.

CTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a Florida-based publicly traded real estate company, which owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.4 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States and an approximately 23.5% interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease real estate investment trust (NYSE: PINE).
How the Company Makes MoneyCTO Realty Growth generates revenue primarily through leasing commercial real estate properties to tenants, which provides a steady stream of rental income. The company also engages in strategic property sales and acquisitions to optimize its portfolio and enhance returns. Additionally, CTO may earn income from property management fees, and joint ventures or partnerships that leverage its expertise in real estate operations. The firm's careful selection of properties and diversified tenant base help mitigate risk and support consistent earnings.

CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.07%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
CTO Realty Growth demonstrated robust investment and leasing activities, with significant progress in managing anchor space vacancies and strategic financial management. However, challenges remain with tenant bankruptcies impacting earnings, and a slight decline in FFO per share.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Investment Activity
CTO Realty Growth acquired Ashley Park for $79.8 million at a high cap rate, with significant lease-up potential and below-market rents.
Positive Leasing Activity
Signed over 112,000 square feet of new leases, renewals, and extensions at an average rent 25% higher than the existing portfolio.
Anchor Space Re-leasing Progress
Executed leases for two anchor spaces and expecting positive cash leasing spread of 40% to 60% on the remaining spaces.
Financial Stability
Core FFO increased by $3.7 million compared to the previous year, and net debt to EBITDA improved to 6.6x, with liquidity of almost $140 million.
Interest Rate Management
Executed SOFR swaps reducing interest rate by nearly 100 basis points to 4.8%.
Negative Updates
Bankrupt Tenant Spaces
Ten anchor spaces were vacated due to tenant bankruptcies, impacting earnings with $9 million to $12 million expected in re-leasing CapEx.
Convertible Notes Settlement
Settlement of 3.875% convertible notes resulted in an extinguishment of debt charge of approximately $20.5 million.
Core FFO Per Share Decline
Core FFO per share decreased by $0.02 compared to the previous year due to leverage reduction and downtime from re-leasing activities.
Company Guidance
During CTO Realty Growth's First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance indicating a strong performance driven by investment and leasing activities. The acquisition of Ashley Park for $79.8 million was highlighted, with the property offering significant lease-up potential and below-market rents. Leasing activity was robust, with over 112,000 square feet of new leases, renewals, and extensions signed at an average rent of $24.14 per square foot, marking a 25% increase over the in-place portfolio average. The company expects a positive cash leasing spread of 40% to 60% from re-leasing anchor spaces vacated due to tenant bankruptcies. At quarter-end, the portfolio was 93.8% leased and 91% occupied, with a signed-not-open leasing pipeline representing $4 million of annual base rent. For full-year 2025, CTO reaffirmed its guidance for core FFO at $1.80 to $1.86 and AFFO at $1.93 to $1.98, despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CTO Realty Growth is experiencing solid revenue growth but is facing profitability challenges, as reflected in its negative net income in 2024. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage and a stable equity position, though increased debt levels are a risk factor. Cash flow metrics are a bright spot, with strong operating cash flow and improved free cash flow. Overall, the company shows growth potential, but profitability and debt management require attention.
Income Statement
65
Positive
CTO Realty Growth has shown a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, with a notable revenue growth rate of 14.09% from 2023 to 2024. However, the company reported a net loss in 2024, leading to a negative net profit margin of -7.05%. The EBIT margin remains positive at 14.14%, indicating operational efficiency, but the EBITDA margin is negative due to high depreciation and amortization expenses. Overall, the revenue growth is promising, but profitability issues impact the score.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.85, highlighting a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity has turned negative in 2024 due to net losses, indicating challenges in generating shareholder value. The equity ratio of 51.85% suggests a relatively balanced capital structure. While the balance sheet shows stability, the decrease in stockholders' equity and increased debt burden are concerns.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
CTO Realty Growth exhibited strong operating cash flow growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, reflecting effective cash generation despite reported net losses. Free cash flow has improved significantly, showing a positive trajectory after previous deficits. The cash flow performance is strong, reflecting good liquidity management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue132.20M124.52M109.12M82.32M70.27M56.38M
Gross Profit86.11M91.30M78.94M59.46M47.84M41.17M
EBITDA40.50M75.03M71.70M46.56M36.64M29.60M
Net Income-5.55M-1.97M5.53M3.16M29.94M78.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.24B1.18B989.67M986.54M733.14M665.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments47.93M48.68M49.66M61.37M49.65M34.86M
Total Debt0.00534.41M506.23M496.25M278.27M273.06M
Total Liabilities650.02M568.85M532.14M481.77M302.66M315.03M
Stockholders Equity593.88M612.80M457.53M504.77M430.48M350.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow63.18M69.35M46.42M-257.83M-228.80M-150.88M
Operating Cash Flow67.90M69.35M46.42M56.10M27.58M16.93M
Investing Cash Flow-270.85M-242.15M-52.56M-267.63M-102.97M-91.12M
Financing Cash Flow203.49M172.35M2.77M201.38M72.91M-26.89M

CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price17.54
Price Trends
50DMA
17.81
Negative
100DMA
18.07
Negative
200DMA
18.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.13
Positive
RSI
47.88
Neutral
STOCH
47.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.91, below the 50-day MA of 17.81, and below the 200-day MA of 18.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTO.

CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis

CTO Realty Growth disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
OLOLP
74
Outperform
$523.01M17.909.57%7.43%1.82%-1.03%
AHAHH
68
Neutral
$718.55M124.393.05%7.90%-12.13%-14.54%
66
Neutral
$679.34M50.417.51%8.23%3.01%
60
Neutral
$498.27M-6.09%6.64%-8.41%88.62%
CTCTO
57
Neutral
$577.67M36.87-1.05%8.66%17.48%-172.41%
54
Neutral
$682.32M-6.29%12.24%-14.92%-3.27%
53
Neutral
$1.20B3.25-0.13%7.08%-1.64%-127.49%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
17.54
1.51
9.42%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
14.58
1.44
10.96%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
24.22
2.45
11.25%
AHH
Armada Hoffler Properties
7.09
-3.06
-30.15%
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital
5.23
0.03
0.58%
PKST
Peakstone Realty Trust
13.55
4.05
42.63%

CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CTO Realty Growth Holds 2025 Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 18, 2025, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made, including the election of board members and the ratification of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, stockholders approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, indicating continued support for the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTO) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CTO Realty Growth stock, see the CTO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
CTO Realty Growth Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, CTO Realty Growth announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a net income of $0.01 per diluted share and a core FFO of $0.46 per diluted share. The company acquired a property in Atlanta for $79.8 million and reported a 37.2% increase in cash rent spread from signed leases. Despite a decrease in net income compared to the previous year, the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and reported strong leasing spreads and a solid pipeline, indicating robust operational fundamentals.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 26, 2025