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CTO Realty Growth
(NYSE:CTO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(9.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
CTO’s score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and a positive earnings update: revenue and operating cash flow are growing, and management raised 2026 FFO/AFFO guidance alongside strong leasing and same-store NOI trends. The score is tempered by profitability volatility (including negative gross profit), meaningful leverage with low ROE, and mixed valuation signals (high dividend yield but very high P/E). Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages, but momentum indicators were not provided.
Positive Factors
Leasing and Occupancy Strength
Sustained leasing momentum and high portfolio occupancy indicate durable demand for CTO's retail assets and strong rent reversion potential. A 14% average cash rent increase and 95.4% leased portfolio reduce long-term vacancy risk, support same-property NOI growth, and enhance predictability of rental cash flows and distributions.
Negative Factors
Balance‑Sheet Data Inconsistencies
Inconsistent or anomalous balance-sheet reporting undermines reliable assessment of leverage, asset quality, and liquidity. For a capital‑intensive REIT, unclear asset and debt reporting impedes accurate stress testing, refinancing planning, and covenant monitoring, increasing uncertainty around long‑term financial resilience and capital strategy.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Leasing and Occupancy Strength
Sustained leasing momentum and high portfolio occupancy indicate durable demand for CTO's retail assets and strong rent reversion potential. A 14% average cash rent increase and 95.4% leased portfolio reduce long-term vacancy risk, support same-property NOI growth, and enhance predictability of rental cash flows and distributions.
Read all positive factors
CTO Realty Growth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Separates rental and related income by property type or business line so you can see which segments drive the bulk of cash flow, identify growth engines, and assess dependence on any single market or tenant mix.
Separates rental and related income by property type or business line so you can see which segments drive the bulk of cash flow, identify growth engines, and assess dependence on any single market or tenant mix.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$823.56M
Dividend Yield6.92%
Average Volume (3M)361.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth14.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees42
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding37,485,455
10 Day Avg. Volume269,185
30 Day Avg. Volume361,992
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.87
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio9.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.60Price Target Upside11.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$173.45M
CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTO Realty Growth, Inc., a publicly traded real estate enterprise headquartered in Florida, manages a diverse portfolio of income-generating properties. These assets span various markets throughout the United States, collectively encompassing arou...
How the Company Makes Money
CTO primarily makes money through (1) rental revenue from leasing space in its commercial real estate portfolio to tenants (base rent under long-term leases, and in some cases additional rent components such as reimbursements for property operatin...
CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was largely positive: leasing momentum, solid same-store NOI growth, accretive acquisition activity, attractive structured investment yields, and raised full-year guidance drove strong operational and financial progress. Challenges are present but largely manageable, including timing of certain lease commencements (notably a large Albuquerque vacancy), one center with sub-90% occupancy (Carolina Pavilion), some dependency on later-year recognition from the Signed-Not-Open pipeline, and increased allocation to structured investments which raises concentration risk. On balance, the positives materially outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Activity and Rent Growth
Executed leases, renewals and extensions totaling 153,000 sq ft (146,000 sq ft comparable) with an average cash rent increase of 14%.
Negative Updates
Notable Anchor Vacancy Impact
One tenant vacated 98,000 sq ft at the Albuquerque property (vacancy impacted same-property NOI growth); replacement lease to the state of New Mexico expected to commence paying rent in late 2026 (timing delay).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Leasing Activity and Rent Growth
Executed leases, renewals and extensions totaling 153,000 sq ft (146,000 sq ft comparable) with an average cash rent increase of 14%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CTO raised its 2026 outlook to core FFO $2.06–$2.11 and AFFO $2.19–$2.24 per diluted share (ranges that imply ≈12% growth at the midpoint), driven by assumptions of $175M–$250M of incremental investment (including structured investments), shopping-center same‑property NOI growth of 3.5%–4.5% and G&A of $19.7M–$20.2M; the company pointed to Q1 operating metrics—core FFO $16.9M ($0.52/sh), AFFO $18.2M ($0.56/sh), portfolio 95.4% leased, Signed‑Not‑Open pipeline $6.2M (≈5.5% of in‑place cash rent), shopping-center same‑store NOI +6.8% (+4.2% ex nonrecurring), total same‑property NOI +3.4%—and balance‑sheet capacity with $651.8M total debt at a 4.6% weighted rate, ~$125M liquidity and 6.4x net debt/adj. EBITDA; management also highlighted structured investments rising to $158M post‑quarter (11.6% weighted yield, including a $75M 12% preferred) and $30M of outparcel capital expected to generate low‑double‑digit unlevered yields (primarily contributing in 2027–2028).CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 161.10M | 149.54M | 124.52M | 109.12M | 82.32M | 70.27M |
| Gross Profit | 922.00K | -8.41M | 91.30M | 78.94M | 59.46M | 47.84M |
| EBITDA | 151.95M | 97.48M | 75.03M | 71.70M | 46.56M | 55.78M |
| Net Income | 52.68M | 10.09M | -1.97M | 5.53M | 3.16M | 29.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.40B | 1.26B | 1.18B | 989.67M | 986.54M | 733.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 59.37M | 47.79M | 48.68M | 49.66M | 61.37M | 49.65M |
| Total Debt | 690.28M | 616.57M | 519.29M | 495.79M | 445.65M | 284.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 742.55M | 696.56M | 568.85M | 532.14M | 481.77M | 302.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 663.18M | 567.35M | 612.80M | 457.53M | 504.77M | 430.48M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.19M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | -257.83M | 27.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 66.94M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | 56.10M | 27.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -123.67M | -71.50M | -232.67M | -52.56M | -267.63M | -102.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 81.40M | 30.66M | 172.35M | 2.77M | 201.38M | 72.91M |
CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis
Positive
22.00
Price Trends
21.15
Positive
20.14
Positive
18.65
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Positive
56.04
Neutral
39.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.90, above the 50-day MA of 21.15, and above the 200-day MA of 18.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTO.
CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis
CTO Realty Growth disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $572.00M | -143.04 | -0.68% | 5.08% | ― | ― | |
66 Neutral | $823.56M | 15.44 | 8.92% | 6.91% | 14.26% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $530.43M | 21.32 | 8.11% | 7.16% | 10.12% | -7.92% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $609.73M | 27.64 | 9.74% | 8.49% | 9.64% | -38.93% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
22.07
6.88
45.27%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.47
0.51
4.24%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
24.34
3.48
16.71%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
20.24
8.96
79.42%
CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
CTO Realty Growth Posts Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
CTO Realty Growth reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026, posting net income of $0.38 per diluted share, Core FFO of $0.53 per diluted share and AFFO of $0.55 per diluted share, marking a sharp improvement from prior-year losses. Th...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CTO Realty Stockholders Approve Directors and Equity Plan
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 17, 2026, at which investors elected six directors, including John P. Albright and five other nominees, to serve on the board until the 2027 annual meeting. Shareholders ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
CTO Realty Expands ATM Equity and Preferred Stock Programs
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. expanded the sales syndicate for its existing at-the-market preferred stock program by adding Cantor Fitzgerald Co. and Huntington Securities, Inc. as additional sales agents for up to $25 million of its...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.