CTO Realty Growth (CTO)
NYSE:CTO
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CTO Realty Growth
(NYSE:CTO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
▲(12.05% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven by constructive technical momentum and a positive earnings update with raised 2026 outlook and strong leasing/NOI trends. Offsetting factors are uneven underlying profitability quality (including negative gross profit) and balance-sheet risk/low ROE, while valuation is mixed (high yield but elevated P/E).
Positive Factors
Leasing Momentum & Occupancy
Sustained high occupancy (95%+) and strong lease spreads (14% average) indicate durable tenant demand and pricing power in core markets. This supports recurring rental cash flows, steadier same-store NOI growth and lower vacancy-driven volatility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage & Low ROE
Capital structure shows moderate-to-elevated leverage and very low returns on equity. High net leverage (6.4x net debt/adj. EBITDA noted elsewhere) and thin ROE constrain balance-sheet flexibility, increase sensitivity to rate moves and limit long-term shareholder return potential absent sustained NOI improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Leasing Momentum & Occupancy
Sustained high occupancy (95%+) and strong lease spreads (14% average) indicate durable tenant demand and pricing power in core markets. This supports recurring rental cash flows, steadier same-store NOI growth and lower vacancy-driven volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
CTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$686.82M
Dividend Yield8.56%
Average Volume (3M)209.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.2
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth17.17%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees37
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding33,783,592
10 Day Avg. Volume214,771
30 Day Avg. Volume209,590
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.48
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio9.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-307.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside14.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$159.35M
CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a Florida-based publicly traded real estate company, which owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.4 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States and an approximately 23.5% interest in Alpi...
How the Company Makes Money
CTO primarily makes money through rental income generated by leasing space in its owned commercial real estate portfolio to tenants. A major revenue stream is base rent under long-term lease agreements (often with contractual rent escalations), wh...
CTO Realty Growth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was largely positive: leasing momentum, solid same-store NOI growth, accretive acquisition activity, attractive structured investment yields, and raised full-year guidance drove strong operational and financial progress. Challenges are present but largely manageable, including timing of certain lease commencements (notably a large Albuquerque vacancy), one center with sub-90% occupancy (Carolina Pavilion), some dependency on later-year recognition from the Signed-Not-Open pipeline, and increased allocation to structured investments which raises concentration risk. On balance, the positives materially outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Activity and Rent Growth
Executed leases, renewals and extensions totaling 153,000 sq ft (146,000 sq ft comparable) with an average cash rent increase of 14%.
Negative Updates
Notable Anchor Vacancy Impact
One tenant vacated 98,000 sq ft at the Albuquerque property (vacancy impacted same-property NOI growth); replacement lease to the state of New Mexico expected to commence paying rent in late 2026 (timing delay).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Leasing Activity and Rent Growth
Executed leases, renewals and extensions totaling 153,000 sq ft (146,000 sq ft comparable) with an average cash rent increase of 14%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CTO raised its 2026 outlook to core FFO $2.06–$2.11 and AFFO $2.19–$2.24 per diluted share (ranges that imply ≈12% growth at the midpoint), driven by assumptions of $175M–$250M of incremental investment (including structured investments), shopping-center same‑property NOI growth of 3.5%–4.5% and G&A of $19.7M–$20.2M; the company pointed to Q1 operating metrics—core FFO $16.9M ($0.52/sh), AFFO $18.2M ($0.56/sh), portfolio 95.4% leased, Signed‑Not‑Open pipeline $6.2M (≈5.5% of in‑place cash rent), shopping-center same‑store NOI +6.8% (+4.2% ex nonrecurring), total same‑property NOI +3.4%—and balance‑sheet capacity with $651.8M total debt at a 4.6% weighted rate, ~$125M liquidity and 6.4x net debt/adj. EBITDA; management also highlighted structured investments rising to $158M post‑quarter (11.6% weighted yield, including a $75M 12% preferred) and $30M of outparcel capital expected to generate low‑double‑digit unlevered yields (primarily contributing in 2027–2028).CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 154.91M | 149.54M | 124.52M | 109.12M | 82.32M | 70.27M |
| Gross Profit | -4.32M | -8.41M | 91.30M | 78.94M | 59.46M | 47.84M |
| EBITDA | 132.24M | 97.48M | 75.03M | 71.70M | 46.56M | 55.78M |
| Net Income | 14.15M | 10.09M | -1.97M | 5.53M | 3.16M | 29.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.30B | 1.26B | 1.18B | 989.67M | 986.54M | 733.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.77M | 47.79M | 48.68M | 49.66M | 61.37M | 49.65M |
| Total Debt | 649.73M | 616.57M | 519.29M | 495.79M | 445.65M | 284.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 724.30M | 696.56M | 568.85M | 532.14M | 481.77M | 302.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 575.36M | 567.35M | 612.80M | 457.53M | 504.77M | 430.48M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 68.89M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | -257.83M | 27.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 68.89M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | 56.10M | 27.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -59.51M | -71.50M | -232.67M | -52.56M | -267.63M | -102.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.88M | 30.66M | 172.35M | 2.77M | 201.38M | 72.91M |
CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis
Positive
20.08
Price Trends
18.90
Positive
18.24
Positive
17.05
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
72.21
Negative
97.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.96, above the 50-day MA of 18.90, and above the 200-day MA of 17.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.21 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTO.
CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis
CTO Realty Growth disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $491.94M | -19.56 | -1.04% | 5.74% | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $686.82M | 24.23 | 2.16% | 8.56% | 17.17% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $493.41M | 43.92 | 8.41% | 9.03% | 7.36% | -18.15% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
58 Neutral | $780.19M | 38.05 | -37.92% | 5.44% | -28.63% | -3131.14% | |
54 Neutral | $623.39M | 23.37 | 8.70% | 11.56% | 8.00% | -44.67% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
20.33
3.78
22.87%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.78
<0.01
<0.01%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
22.62
0.14
0.60%
PKST
Peakstone Realty Trust
20.98
9.90
89.35%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
17.46
5.70
48.49%
CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
CTO Realty Expands ATM Equity and Preferred Stock Programs
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. expanded the sales syndicate for its existing at-the-market preferred stock program by adding Cantor Fitzgerald Co. and Huntington Securities, Inc. as additional sales agents for up to $25 million of its...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
CTO Realty Growth Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Raises Outlook
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
CTO Realty Growth reported solid first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, 2026, with net income attributable to common stockholders rising to $0.13 per diluted share and Core FFO and AFFO per diluted share increasing to $0.52 and $0.56, respectivel...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
CTO Realty Growth Reports Strong Q4 and 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, CTO Realty Growth reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by net income of $0.82 per diluted share for the quarter and $0.08 for the year, alongside c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.