CTO Realty Growth (CTO)
NYSE:CTO
Top Page
CTO Realty Growth
(NYSE:CTO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(7.75% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by improved balance-sheet risk and a constructive 2026 operating/guidance backdrop, reinforced by an uptrend in price. The main constraints are inconsistent profitability (including negative EBITDA margin in 2025) and uneven free cash flow, with valuation support coming more from the high dividend yield than earnings-based metrics.
Positive Factors
Material Deleveraging
Eliminating total debt in 2025 materially lowers financial risk and interest burden, expanding strategic flexibility for acquisitions, capital recycling, and dividend support. This durable balance-sheet improvement gives management optionality to pursue accretive investments or return capital without near-term refinancing pressure.
Negative Factors
Volatile Profitability
Large swings in net income and a negative EBITDA margin in 2025 signal inconsistent operating profitability. For a REIT, this undermines predictability of FFO-driven dividends and makes multi-quarter forecasting sensitive to timing of asset sales, lease commencements, and noncore disruptions, elevating execution risk for sustained earnings improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Material Deleveraging
Eliminating total debt in 2025 materially lowers financial risk and interest burden, expanding strategic flexibility for acquisitions, capital recycling, and dividend support. This durable balance-sheet improvement gives management optionality to pursue accretive investments or return capital without near-term refinancing pressure.
Read all positive factors
CTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$636.54M
Dividend Yield8.56%
Average Volume (3M)252.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)58.9
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth23.84%
EPS Growth-312.04%
CountryUS
Employees37
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.82
Shares Outstanding32,559,590
10 Day Avg. Volume203,443
30 Day Avg. Volume252,339
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.48
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio12.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-152.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.00Price Target Upside12.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$159.35M
CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a Florida-based publicly traded real estate company, which owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.4 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States and an approximately 23.5% interest in Alpi...
How the Company Makes Money
CTO Realty Growth generates revenue primarily through rental income derived from its portfolio of leased properties. The company typically enters into long-term lease agreements with tenants, ensuring a stable and predictable cash flow. Additional...
CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive operational and strategic picture: strong leasing momentum (Q4 and full-year), record occupancy, accretive acquisitions and dispositions, improved liquidity and an upward earnings outlook for 2026. Headwinds include modest total same-property NOI growth driven by a few noncore issues, timing shifts in signed-not-open recognition (reduced near-term visibility), temporary downtime from anchor conversions, and still-elevated leverage that will require asset recycling or pipeline rent to meaningfully reduce. On balance the positive operational trends, clear pipeline, and forward guidance outweigh the challenges, but execution on timing and deleveraging will be important to sustain the outlook.Positive Updates
Record High Leased Occupancy
Leased occupancy reached a record 95.9% at year-end, reflecting strong leasing and portfolio demand.
Negative Updates
Lower Total Same-Property NOI (Impact from Noncore Assets)
Total same-property NOI (including 4 noncore properties) increased only 1.1% in Q4, negatively impacted by noncore issues including Fidelity vacating nearly half of a 212k sq ft office property in Albuquerque and reduced percentage rent from beachfront restaurants in Daytona Beach.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record High Leased Occupancy
Leased occupancy reached a record 95.9% at year-end, reflecting strong leasing and portfolio demand.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CTO's initial 2026 guidance calls for core FFO per diluted share of $1.98–$2.03 and AFFO per diluted share of $2.11–$2.16, built on assumptions of $100–$200 million of investment activity (including structured investments) at a weighted average initial yield of 8.0%–8.5%, shopping‑center same‑property NOI growth of 3.5%–4.5% and G&A of $19.5–$20.0 million; management also highlighted a $6.1 million signed‑not‑open pipeline (≈5.8% of annual cash base rents) with roughly half expected to be recognized in 2026 and 100% in 2027, noted that NOI cadence should improve through the year, and reminded investors of a strong liquidity position ($167 million total: $149 million revolver availability and $18 million cash), net debt/EBITDA of 6.4x (down from 6.7x), only $17.8 million maturing in 2026 and that the planned ~$83 million Texas acquisition may temporarily raise leverage before anticipated deleveraging via asset sales and rent commencements.CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 149.54M | 124.52M | 109.12M | 82.32M | 70.27M |
| Gross Profit | -8.41M | 91.30M | 78.94M | 59.46M | 47.84M |
| EBITDA | 97.48M | 75.03M | 71.70M | 46.56M | 55.78M |
| Net Income | 10.09M | -1.97M | 5.53M | 3.16M | 29.94M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.26B | 1.18B | 989.67M | 986.54M | 733.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.79M | 48.68M | 49.66M | 61.37M | 49.65M |
| Total Debt | 648.06M | 534.41M | 506.23M | 455.53M | 284.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 696.56M | 568.85M | 532.14M | 481.77M | 302.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 567.35M | 612.80M | 457.53M | 504.77M | 430.48M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 49.44M | 69.35M | 46.42M | -257.83M | 27.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 64.60M | 69.35M | 46.42M | 56.10M | 27.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -71.50M | -242.15M | -52.56M | -267.63M | -102.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 30.66M | 172.35M | 2.77M | 201.38M | 72.91M |
CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis
Positive
19.49
Price Trends
18.72
Positive
18.11
Positive
16.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
65.14
Neutral
87.45
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.78, above the 50-day MA of 18.72, and above the 200-day MA of 16.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTO.
CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis
CTO Realty Growth disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $462.76M | -76.15 | -1.04% | 5.74% | ― | ― | |
69 Neutral | $636.54M | 58.86 | 1.78% | 8.56% | 23.84% | -312.04% | |
66 Neutral | $496.25M | 16.62 | 8.41% | 9.03% | 7.71% | -5.37% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $777.96M | 38.05 | -37.92% | 5.44% | -16.50% | -640.43% | |
54 Neutral | $595.10M | 26.11 | 8.70% | 11.56% | 4.95% | -6.49% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
19.49
2.95
17.86%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.25
-0.36
-2.85%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
22.70
0.51
2.30%
PKST
Peakstone Realty Trust
20.93
9.56
84.08%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
16.81
5.46
48.05%
CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
CTO Realty Growth Reports Strong Q4 and 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, CTO Realty Growth reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by net income of $0.82 per diluted share for the quarter and $0.08 for the year, alongside c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.