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Cto Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)
:CTO
US Market
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CTO Realty Growth (CTO) AI Stock Analysis

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CTO

CTO Realty Growth

(NYSE:CTO)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▼(-2.41% Downside)
CTO Realty Growth's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The most significant factor is the company's financial performance, which shows strong cash flow generation but struggles with profitability and increased leverage. The technical analysis indicates moderate bullish momentum, while the valuation highlights risks with a negative P/E ratio but an attractive dividend yield. The earnings call adds a positive note with strong leasing activity, though tempered by occupancy challenges and debt costs.

CTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCTO Realty Growth (CTO) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on acquiring, owning, and managing a diversified portfolio of commercial properties, primarily in the retail and service sectors. The company operates through a strategic approach to property investment, targeting high-quality assets that generate stable cash flows. CTO is committed to enhancing shareholder value through prudent property management and disciplined capital allocation.
How the Company Makes MoneyCTO Realty Growth generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of commercial properties. The company leases its properties to various tenants, which provide a steady stream of cash flow. Additionally, CTO may engage in property sales and acquisitions, allowing for capital appreciation and potential gains from increased property values. The company's revenue model is supported by long-term lease agreements, which provide predictability in earnings. Furthermore, CTO may benefit from partnerships with property management firms that enhance operational efficiency and tenant relations, contributing to its overall profitability.

CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong leasing momentum and successful negotiation of anchor spaces, driving future earnings potential. However, challenges such as anchor tenant vacancies, temporary occupancy declines, and debt extinguishment costs were noted. The improvements in core FFO and debt management are positive indicators, but the balance of highlights and lowlights suggests a measured outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Momentum
Signed approximately 227,000 square feet of new leases, renewals, and extensions at an average cash base rent of $25.43 per square foot, including 190,000 square feet of comparable leases at a 22% cash rent spread.
Positive Anchor Space Developments
Full control of 10 anchor spaces with new leases executed for 5, including Burlington and Bob's Discount Furniture, anticipating a positive cash leasing spread of 40% to 60%.
Robust Signed Not Open Pipeline
Signed not open pipeline stands at $4.6 million, representing 4.6% of in-place cash rents, providing earnings tailwinds into 2026.
Carolina Pavilion Leasing Success
Leased 2 of 4 anchor spaces at Carolina Pavilion and in active negotiations for the remaining. Expect to achieve an unlevered double-digit yield.
Improved Debt Management
Settled 3.875% convertible notes with a balance of approximately $51 million, ending the quarter with $606.8 million of debt and net debt to EBITDA improved from 7.5x to 6.9x year-over-year.
Increased Core FFO
Core FFO was $14.7 million for the quarter, a $4.3 million increase compared to $10.3 million in the prior year.
Negative Updates
Anchor Tenant Vacancies
Party City and JOANN's vacated, leading to temporary occupancy challenges with Staples lease expiring and transitioning to Barnes & Noble.
Debt Extinguishment Costs
Repayment of convertible notes resulted in an extinguishment of debt charge of approximately $20.4 million.
Occupancy Rate Decline
Property portfolio was 93.9% leased and 90.2% occupied at the end of the quarter, slightly down due to vacated anchor spaces.
Fidelity Lease Downsize
Fidelity is reducing their space in an Albuquerque property to approximately half, though offset by a new lease with the state of New Mexico.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, CTO Realty Growth reported robust leasing activity, signing approximately 227,000 square feet of new leases, renewals, and extensions at an average cash base rent of $25.43 per square foot, achieving a 22% cash rent spread on 190,000 square feet of comparable leases. Year-to-date, the company completed 339,000 square feet of leasing, with a 27% cash rent spread on 299,000 square feet of comparable leases. The company's property portfolio was 93.9% leased and 90.2% occupied at the quarter's end. The signed not open pipeline stands at $4.6 million, representing 4.6% of in-place cash rents. On the investment front, the company ended the quarter with $606.8 million of debt, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.9x, and maintained liquidity of approximately $85 million. For the full year 2025, CTO Realty Growth reaffirmed guidance for core FFO of $1.80 to $1.86 per share and AFFO of $1.93 to $1.98 per share.

CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CTO Realty Growth exhibits mixed financial performance. The company has a strong gross profit margin and positive revenue growth, but faces profitability challenges with negative net income and EBIT margins. The balance sheet shows increased leverage, posing potential risks, although cash flow generation is improving.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
CTO Realty Growth shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 74% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -22.7% TTM. The EBIT margin is also negative, reflecting operational challenges. Revenue growth is positive at 6.65% TTM, but the overall profitability metrics suggest the company is facing significant headwinds.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet of CTO Realty Growth presents a moderate risk profile. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.08 TTM, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio stands at 46.5%, showing a reasonable level of equity financing relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
CTO Realty Growth's cash flow statement reveals some positive trends. The free cash flow has grown by 21.8% TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 5.22, suggesting robust cash flow relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, which is neutral, indicating that all net income is being converted into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue141.00M124.52M109.12M82.32M70.27M56.38M
Gross Profit104.62M91.30M78.94M59.46M47.84M41.17M
EBITDA19.16M75.03M71.70M46.56M36.64M29.60M
Net Income-32.02M-1.97M5.53M3.16M29.94M78.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.23B1.18B989.67M986.54M733.14M665.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments43.30M48.68M49.66M61.37M49.65M34.86M
Total Debt621.64M534.41M506.23M455.53M284.07M298.24M
Total Liabilities659.16M568.85M532.14M481.77M302.66M315.03M
Stockholders Equity574.06M612.80M457.53M504.77M430.48M350.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow76.95M69.35M46.42M-257.83M-228.80M-150.88M
Operating Cash Flow76.95M69.35M46.42M56.10M27.58M16.93M
Investing Cash Flow-289.86M-242.15M-52.56M-267.63M-102.97M-91.12M
Financing Cash Flow225.60M172.35M2.77M201.38M72.91M-26.89M

CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price17.42
Price Trends
50DMA
17.06
Positive
100DMA
17.45
Negative
200DMA
18.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.09
Negative
RSI
61.15
Neutral
STOCH
83.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.82, above the 50-day MA of 17.06, and below the 200-day MA of 18.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTO.

CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis

CTO Realty Growth disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$508.90M18.229.16%7.61%5.57%-14.50%
67
Neutral
$734.79M78.803.55%9.45%-25.73%
63
Neutral
$7.02B13.41-0.50%6.86%4.08%-25.24%
59
Neutral
$704.12M36.798.51%9.08%5.85%
58
Neutral
$498.15M-35.52%6.65%-6.69%-118.66%
56
Neutral
$766.96M-2.41%10.77%-14.73%79.63%
54
Neutral
$571.17M36.87-5.66%8.73%22.26%-328.46%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
17.42
-0.60
-3.33%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
13.22
-0.91
-6.44%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
23.64
-1.25
-5.02%
AHH
Armada Hoffler Properties
7.30
-3.63
-33.21%
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital
5.94
0.87
17.16%
PKST
Peakstone Realty Trust
13.59
0.95
7.52%

CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
CTO Realty Growth Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 29, 2025

On July 29, 2025, CTO Realty Growth announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $0.77 per diluted share. Despite the loss, the company signed 190,000 square feet of leases with a 21.6% positive cash rent spread, and reaffirmed its 2025 financial outlook. The company also highlighted significant progress in leasing vacant anchor spaces, which is expected to provide earnings tailwinds into 2026.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CTO Realty Growth Holds 2025 Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 18, 2025, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made, including the election of board members and the ratification of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, stockholders approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, indicating continued support for the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 04, 2025