BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $728.03M
• Dividend Yield: 10.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 724.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: -12.57%
• EPS Growth: 70.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 128,627,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 884,793
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 724,889
• PEG Ratio: 0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 46.21
• 1Y Price Target: $6.40
• Price Target Upside: 13.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $254.49M

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(6.01% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

BRSP scores as mixed: improving leverage and generally positive cash generation support the profile, but recurring net losses and weak/unclear revenue visibility materially constrain financial performance. The earnings call adds moderate support via a clear 2026 growth/funding plan, though REO/watch-list and credit-cost risks remain significant. Technically, indicators lean mildly bearish, while valuation is helped by a high dividend yield but tempered by a negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Improving leverage

Material deleveraging in 2025 meaningfully reduces financial fragility and interest‑rate sensitivity. If sustained, a lower debt load supports more durable dividend coverage, gives flexibility to originate loans, and reduces refinancing risk across the next several quarters.

Strong origination momentum

A clear and sizeable origination cadence signals the firm can redeploy capital into yield‑generating assets, restoring recurring net interest income. Sustained origination momentum supports loan book growth to management targets and underpins longer‑run earnings recovery.

Expanded funding and CLO execution

Successful CLO issuance plus amended facility covenants materially increases long‑dated, SOFR‑based funding capacity. Structural funding improvements reduce liquidity strain and enable scale in originating and matching loans to capital over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Large REO exposure

Concentrated REO ties up capital and depresses cash generation until assets are monetized. Large, illiquid holdings can force discounted sales, raise impairment risk, and limit the pace of loan origination or dividend restoration over the coming quarters if resolution lags.

Volatile profitability and revenue trend

Inconsistent revenue and recurring GAAP losses indicate earnings quality issues and reliance on one‑off items or portfolio sales. Without sustained positive net income, restoring durable dividend coverage and rebuilding book value faces execution risk over the next several quarters.

Specific CECL reserves and charge‑offs

Material specific reserves and charge‑offs show realized credit stress in portions of the portfolio. Elevated loss recognition can compress future distributable earnings and capital available for originations, constraining growth and dividend sustainability until credit trends normalize.

BrightSpire Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BrightSpire Capital, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust in the United States. It focuses on originating, acquiring, financing, and managing a portfolio of CRE senior mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, debt securities, and net leased properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. The company was formerly known as Colony Credit Real Estate, Inc. and changed its name to BrightSpire Capital, Inc. in June 2021. BrightSpire Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

BrightSpire Capital generates revenue primarily through the collection of rental income from its owned properties, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. Additionally, the company earns income from interest on loans it provides to real estate owners and operators, which is a key revenue stream. BrightSpire may also engage in property management and leasing services, further contributing to its revenue. The company's financial performance is bolstered by partnerships with institutional investors and real estate operators, which allow it to access a broader range of investment opportunities and enhance its capital structure. Furthermore, BrightSpire's focus on strategic acquisitions and asset management allows it to optimize property values and increase cash flow, driving profitability.

BrightSpire Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is mixed: leverage appears to be improving and operating/free cash flow is generally positive, but profitability is volatile with recurring net losses and weak/unclear top-line visibility (including the anomalous zero 2025 revenue figure). Free cash flow has also been drifting down recently, limiting flexibility despite better balance-sheet positioning.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have been inconsistent. Revenue declined in 2024 and is reported at zero in 2025, making the latest-year trend difficult and unfavorable to interpret. Earnings have also been volatile: net income swung from a profit in 2022 to losses in 2023–2025, with 2024 showing particularly weak profitability and negative operating performance. A positive in 2025 is that EBIT is positive, but negative EBITDA and continued net losses point to ongoing earnings quality and cost/valuation headwinds.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears to be improving sharply in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to ~0.44 versus roughly 2.3–3.3 in 2020–2024, which is a meaningful de-risking if sustained. However, returns on equity are negative in most years (including 2025), indicating the capital base has not been consistently profitable. Total assets have also trended lower since 2020, suggesting balance-sheet contraction alongside the deleveraging.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in most years (except 2021), including 2025. That said, free cash flow has been drifting down recently (negative growth in 2024 and 2025), and cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt in 2025 (operating cash flow is ~18% of debt), leaving less flexibility if operating conditions weaken.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	331.60M	347.22M	392.11M	358.54M	323.09M
Gross Profit	164.60M	159.42M	192.16M	193.07M	191.86M
EBITDA	111.97M	-66.81M	35.91M	112.52M	101.59M
Net Income	-31.15M	-131.98M	-15.55M	45.79M	-101.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.56B	3.72B	4.20B	4.75B	5.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	66.79M	302.17M	257.51M	306.32M	259.72M
Total Debt	2.51B	2.52B	3.66B	3.19B	4.87B
Total Liabilities	2.64B	2.68B	2.92B	3.36B	4.15B
Stockholders Equity	938.43M	1.05B	1.28B	1.39B	1.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	73.03M	103.41M	137.62M	125.28M	-21.27M
Operating Cash Flow	73.03M	103.41M	137.62M	125.28M	-21.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-419.93M	313.08M	384.16M	89.34M	-555.79M
Financing Cash Flow	68.93M	-327.95M	-558.60M	-161.45M	384.36M

BrightSpire Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.66
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.86, below the 50-day MA of 5.87, and above the 200-day MA of 5.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRSP.

BrightSpire Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLP	71 Outperform	$504.33M	15.07	10.91%	9.03%	7.71%	-5.37%
CTO	69 Neutral	$632.96M	247.31	1.71%	8.56%	23.84%	-312.04%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AHH	61 Neutral	$476.11M	-76.74	―	9.50%	-39.94%	―
GOOD	55 Neutral	$609.39M	90.61	5.53%	11.56%	4.95%	-6.49%
PKST	54 Neutral	$775.58M	-2.25	-30.58%	5.44%	-16.50%	-640.43%
BRSP	53 Neutral	$728.03M	-21.68	-3.14%	10.83%	-12.57%	70.50%

BrightSpire Capital Corporate Events

BrightSpire Capital Launches New 2026 Real Estate CLO

On February 17, 2026, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. closed a new real estate CLO, BRSP 2026-FL3, through its Sub-REIT and affiliated issuers in the Cayman Islands and Delaware, issuing multiple classes of rated and unrated notes plus 71,625 preferred shares backed by commercial mortgage and combined loans. Proceeds were used to acquire an initial collateral portfolio, fund a ramp-up account for up to roughly $98.3 million of additional loans over six months, refinance pre-closing facilities and establish a 30‑month reinvestment window, while BrightSpire or affiliates retained all of the riskier Class F, Class G and preferred equity tranches.

The transaction, which features note protection tests, a long legal final maturity in August 2043 and optional exchange of the junior notes into interest‑only and principal‑and‑interest MASCOT notes, reinforces BrightSpire’s reliance on securitization funding and tight structural protections for senior investors. The issuer vehicle is treated as a taxable mortgage pool and qualified REIT subsidiary of the Sub‑REIT, meaning BrightSpire expects to bear corporate tax on any excess inclusion income rather than passing it through to shareholders, though transfer restrictions on junior tranches and equity may limit liquidity and flexibility in managing these positions.

In a related move completed by February 19, 2026, BrightSpire fully redeemed the legacy BRSP 2021‑FL1 CLO notes and preferred shares by depositing the full redemption price in cash with the trustee, resulting in the release and sale of the underlying collateral to the preferred shareholder. This redemption, funded from cash on hand, effectively retires the older 2021 structure and recycles its collateral base into the firm’s new 2026 CLO platform, potentially optimizing financing costs and aligning the loan book with updated structural and market terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSP) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BrightSpire Capital stock, see the BRSP Stock Forecast page.

BrightSpire Capital Expands Key Credit Facilities and Covenants

On December 16–17, 2025, BrightSpire Capital’s subsidiaries executed a new series of amendments across four major repurchase and guaranty facilities with Wells Fargo, Barclays, Citibank and Morgan Stanley, collectively expanding debt capacity, extending maturities and further easing guarantor net worth covenants. The Wells Fargo facility tied to BrightSpire Credit 8 was upsized from $400 million to $500 million, with potential to reach $600 million subject to lender approval, while the minimum consolidated tangible net worth covenant for the BrightSpire operating guarantor was cut to $900 million; prior amendments since 2018 had already extended its maturity to June 22, 2028, added SOFR-based lending, and increased overall facility size. With Barclays, BrightSpire Credit 7’s master repurchase agreement—originally a $500 million line launched in 2018 and now sized at $600 million with maturity out to April 25, 2028—was supplemented by a fourth guaranty amendment on December 16, 2025 that likewise reduced the guarantor’s minimum tangible net worth requirement to $900 million. On the Citibank platform, which provides up to $400 million of financing and has gradually been updated for benchmark transitions and narrowed foreign-asset eligibility, BrightSpire replaced the existing guaranty on December 16, 2025 with an amended and restated guaranty that also lowered the required minimum consolidated tangible net worth to $900 million. Separately, on December 17, 2025, Morgan Stanley agreed under an eleventh omnibus amendment to reduce the guarantor’s minimum tangible net worth threshold to $900 million on a repurchase facility that has historically provided up to $600 million in capacity and now runs through April 20, 2027, after a series of prior amendments that cut the facility size, restored it, shifted to SOFR and extended the term. Taken together, these coordinated covenant reductions and capacity enhancements across four key lending relationships give BrightSpire more balance sheet flexibility and long-dated, SOFR-based financing to support its commercial real estate lending strategy through a challenging property and capital markets cycle.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSP) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BrightSpire Capital stock, see the BRSP Stock Forecast page.

BrightSpire Capital Amends Credit Agreement with JPMorgan

On December 9, 2025, BrightSpire Capital Operating Company, LLC entered into an amendment to its existing credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, allowing for a revolving credit facility of up to $120 million, with the potential to increase to $180 million. This amendment provides BrightSpire with financial flexibility, as it includes options for borrowing in multiple currencies and is backed by a robust borrowing base valuation. The agreement outlines various financial covenants and guarantees, ensuring the company’s obligations are secured by its subsidiaries and assets, which could impact its operational strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSP) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BrightSpire Capital stock, see the BRSP Stock Forecast page.