BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $721.60M
• Dividend Yield: 10.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 884.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: -12.57%
• EPS Growth: 70.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 128,627,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 970,436
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 884,305
• PEG Ratio: 0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 134.67
• 1Y Price Target: $6.40
• Price Target Upside: 14.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $254.49M

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-1.96% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/19/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent profitability signals in the financial statements and soft technical momentum. These are partly offset by generally positive cash generation, constructive execution/guidance around loan growth and dividend coverage, and supportive financing actions, with the high dividend yield providing additional valuation support despite loss-driven negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Deleveraging

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio represents durable de-risking of the balance sheet. Sustained deleveraging reduces interest and refinancing sensitivity, expands capacity to absorb credit losses, and improves flexibility to originate loans and execute capital markets transactions over months.

Consistent cash generation

Recurring positive operating cash flow supports core operations, dividend funding and reinvestment. Reliable cash generation enhances liquidity resilience, enables share buybacks/CLO funding, and provides a buffer against CRE cycles across the medium term if maintained.

Securitization funding capacity

Access to large, structured CLO financing materially increases match‑funding ability and scales originations without immediate balance‑sheet strain. A repeatable CLO platform is a structural funding advantage that supports durable loan book growth if market access holds.

Negative Factors

Significant REO exposure

Large REO holdings tie up capital and produce little recurring income while carrying maintenance and disposition costs. Monetizing these assets is uncertain and can force fire sales or impairments, pressuring liquidity and returns until assets are resolved.

Volatile profitability & revenue

Inconsistent revenues and consecutive recent net losses undermine sustainable earnings power and retained capital accumulation. Persistent profitability volatility constrains reinvestment, dividend consistency and lenders' confidence, raising medium‑term funding and growth risk.

Funding covenants & secured financing reliance

Dependence on secured repo facilities with covenant tests creates structural constraints on capital deployment. In stress, covenant triggers can limit advances, force asset sales or rapid deleveraging, increasing execution risk for the origination and growth strategy over the coming quarters.

BrightSpire Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BrightSpire Capital, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust in the United States. It focuses on originating, acquiring, financing, and managing a portfolio of CRE senior mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, debt securities, and net leased properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. The company was formerly known as Colony Credit Real Estate, Inc. and changed its name to BrightSpire Capital, Inc. in June 2021. BrightSpire Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

BrightSpire Capital primarily makes money by earning income from its commercial real estate debt investments. The core revenue driver is net interest income: the company collects interest (and related fees such as origination, extension, or exit fees) on loans it makes or acquires and funds those assets using a mix of secured financing facilities and other forms of borrowing; the spread between asset yields and funding costs (after hedging and operating expenses) is a key contributor to earnings. In addition to recurring interest income, BrightSpire can generate revenue from loan origination and structuring economics (upfront fees recognized over the life of a loan or at closing, depending on accounting treatment), from purchasing loans or securities at discounts/premiums and realizing accretion/amortization or gains/losses, and from servicing or asset management-related activities where applicable (e.g., special servicing or workout-related fees when loans require restructuring), though the availability and magnitude of these items depend on portfolio composition and market conditions. Factors that significantly influence earnings include commercial real estate credit performance (defaults, modifications, recoveries), interest rate movements (asset and liability repricing and hedging effectiveness), access to and pricing of warehouse lines/secured financing and securitization markets, and the company’s ability to recycle capital by originating new loans and redeploying repayments into new investments. Specific significant partnerships are null.

BrightSpire Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed: cash flow is generally positive (Cash Flow Score 57) and leverage metrics show improvement in the statements (Balance Sheet Score 46), but profitability and revenue trends are weak/volatile with recurring net losses and an unfavorable latest-year revenue signal (Income Statement Score 34).

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have been inconsistent. Revenue declined in 2024 and is reported at zero in 2025, making the latest-year trend difficult and unfavorable to interpret. Earnings have also been volatile: net income swung from a profit in 2022 to losses in 2023–2025, with 2024 showing particularly weak profitability and negative operating performance. A positive in 2025 is that EBIT is positive, but negative EBITDA and continued net losses point to ongoing earnings quality and cost/valuation headwinds.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears to be improving sharply in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to ~0.44 versus roughly 2.3–3.3 in 2020–2024, which is a meaningful de-risking if sustained. However, returns on equity are negative in most years (including 2025), indicating the capital base has not been consistently profitable. Total assets have also trended lower since 2020, suggesting balance-sheet contraction alongside the deleveraging.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in most years (except 2021), including 2025. That said, free cash flow has been drifting down recently (negative growth in 2024 and 2025), and cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt in 2025 (operating cash flow is ~18% of debt), leaving less flexibility if operating conditions weaken.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	331.60M	347.22M	392.11M	358.54M	323.09M
Gross Profit	164.60M	159.42M	192.16M	193.07M	191.86M
EBITDA	111.97M	-66.81M	35.91M	112.52M	101.59M
Net Income	-31.15M	-131.98M	-15.55M	45.79M	-101.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.56B	3.72B	4.20B	4.75B	5.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	66.79M	302.17M	257.51M	306.32M	259.72M
Total Debt	2.49B	2.52B	3.66B	3.19B	4.87B
Total Liabilities	2.64B	2.68B	2.92B	3.36B	4.15B
Stockholders Equity	938.43M	1.05B	1.28B	1.39B	1.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	73.03M	103.41M	137.62M	125.28M	-21.27M
Operating Cash Flow	73.03M	103.41M	137.62M	125.28M	-21.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-419.93M	313.08M	384.16M	89.34M	-555.79M
Financing Cash Flow	68.93M	-327.95M	-558.60M	-161.45M	384.36M

BrightSpire Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.72, below the 50-day MA of 5.82, and above the 200-day MA of 5.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRSP.

BrightSpire Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CTO	69 Neutral	$610.82M	58.86	1.78%	8.56%	23.84%	-312.04%
OLP	66 Neutral	$492.32M	16.62	8.41%	9.03%	7.71%	-5.37%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
GOOD	55 Neutral	$586.00M	26.11	8.70%	11.56%	4.95%	-6.49%
PKST	54 Neutral	$774.84M	38.05	-37.92%	5.44%	-16.50%	-640.43%
BRSP	53 Neutral	$721.60M	-22.81	-3.16%	10.83%	-12.57%	70.50%

BrightSpire Capital Corporate Events

BrightSpire Capital Expands Flexible Commercial Real Estate Financing

On March 12, 2026, BrightSpire Credit 9, LLC, an indirect subsidiary of BrightSpire Capital, entered into a $250 million master repurchase agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank to finance first mortgage loans, senior loan participations and related mezzanine loans secured by commercial real estate. The facility functions as a revolving credit line indexed to the one‑month term secured overnight financing rate, carries an initial maturity of March 12, 2029 with two one‑year extension options, and allows JPMorgan to halt advances if customary conditions precedent are not met.

Concurrently on March 12, 2026, BrightSpire Capital Operating Company, LLC agreed to a partial recourse guarantee capped at 25% of amounts due, subject to certain exceptions, and accepted financial covenants on liquidity, tangible net worth, leverage and interest coverage. The new structure broadens BrightSpire’s flexible funding capacity for commercial real estate lending while imposing balance sheet discipline that may support creditor confidence and influence its leverage and liquidity management over the life of the facility.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSP) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BrightSpire Capital stock, see the BRSP Stock Forecast page.

BrightSpire Capital Launches New 2026 Real Estate CLO

On February 17, 2026, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. closed a new real estate CLO, BRSP 2026-FL3, through its Sub-REIT and affiliated issuers in the Cayman Islands and Delaware, issuing multiple classes of rated and unrated notes plus 71,625 preferred shares backed by commercial mortgage and combined loans. Proceeds were used to acquire an initial collateral portfolio, fund a ramp-up account for up to roughly $98.3 million of additional loans over six months, refinance pre-closing facilities and establish a 30‑month reinvestment window, while BrightSpire or affiliates retained all of the riskier Class F, Class G and preferred equity tranches.

The transaction, which features note protection tests, a long legal final maturity in August 2043 and optional exchange of the junior notes into interest‑only and principal‑and‑interest MASCOT notes, reinforces BrightSpire’s reliance on securitization funding and tight structural protections for senior investors. The issuer vehicle is treated as a taxable mortgage pool and qualified REIT subsidiary of the Sub‑REIT, meaning BrightSpire expects to bear corporate tax on any excess inclusion income rather than passing it through to shareholders, though transfer restrictions on junior tranches and equity may limit liquidity and flexibility in managing these positions.

In a related move completed by February 19, 2026, BrightSpire fully redeemed the legacy BRSP 2021‑FL1 CLO notes and preferred shares by depositing the full redemption price in cash with the trustee, resulting in the release and sale of the underlying collateral to the preferred shareholder. This redemption, funded from cash on hand, effectively retires the older 2021 structure and recycles its collateral base into the firm’s new 2026 CLO platform, potentially optimizing financing costs and aligning the loan book with updated structural and market terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSP) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BrightSpire Capital stock, see the BRSP Stock Forecast page.