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Vericel
(NASDAQ:VCEL)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(45.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/27/26
Overall score reflects a compelling fundamental turnaround with strong recent cash flow and a bullish guidance update from the latest earnings call. The rating is tempered by stretched technical conditions that raise pullback risk and a very expensive valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield), which increases sensitivity to execution and BARDA timing.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for commercial expansion, manufacturing build-out and clinical programs without heavy external financing. Strong cash conversion (OCF above net income and multi-quarter FCF) reduces liquidity risk and supports execution over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
BARDA Revenue Uncertainty
While BARDA provides a meaningful addressable opportunity, the bulk is contingent on future options and timelines. Reliance on optional procurement creates planning uncertainty; materially relying on these contingent dollars for near-term growth or margin targets increases execution and timing risk over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for commercial expansion, manufacturing build-out and clinical programs without heavy external financing. Strong cash conversion (OCF above net income and multi-quarter FCF) reduces liquidity risk and supports execution over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Vericel (VCEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)668.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)105.2
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth22.45%
EPS Growth602.15%
CountryUS
Employees357
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding51,068,230
10 Day Avg. Volume663,036
30 Day Avg. Volume668,686
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.91
Price to Book (P/B)5.14
Price to Sales (P/S)6.59
P/FCF Ratio73.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda56.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.00Price Target Upside70.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$332.18M
Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vericel Corporation operates as a biopharmaceutical firm that has reached the commercialization phase, specializing in the research, development, production, and distribution of cell-based treatments. Its primary therapeutic areas are sports medic...
How the Company Makes Money
Vericel primarily makes money by selling its FDA-approved commercial products to healthcare providers (e.g., hospitals, burn centers, and orthopedic/sports-medicine providers) and recognizing revenue when product is delivered/provided and the rela...
Vericel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial quarter: record revenue, double-digit MACI growth, materially improved margins, robust cash generation, successful sales force expansion, regulatory and manufacturing milestones, and a meaningful BARDA award. The key near-term risks are timing and contingent nature of BARDA-related revenue, the need to sustain biopsy-to-implant conversion, modest near-term margin variability due to investments, and external macro/access uncertainties. On balance, the positives substantially outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Total revenue of $68.4M in Q1 2026, up 30% year-over-year and significantly above company guidance.
Negative Updates
BARDA-Related Revenue Timing and Uncertainty
While BARDA award is sizable (up to $197M), only a portion is contracted now (base $35M) and optional awards/ramps (additional procurement, blast-indication development, room-temperature formulation) are contingent and will materialize over multiple years; expected H2 2026 procurement revenue is modest (~$5M–$6M).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Total revenue of $68.4M in Q1 2026, up 30% year-over-year and significantly above company guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vericel raised full-year 2026 guidance by $10 million to $326–$336 million in total revenue (≈20% growth at the midpoint), driven by a strong Q1 beat (Q1 revenue $68.4M, +30% YoY), MACI strength and expected NexoBrid BARDA procurement; MACI guidance was nudged to $282–$288M with Q2 MACI expected at ~$62.5–$63.5M (MACI Q1 $56.4M, +22%, trailing-4Q growth 23%), Burn Care guidance was raised to ~$44–$48M (Q1 Burn Care $12M, +90%+, Q2 Burn Care ~$9–$10M), and management expects ~$5–$6M of NexoBrid BARDA procurement revenue in H2 (procurement to begin in Q3) from a BARDA award up to $197M (base $35M); profitability/cash targets were reiterated with full-year gross margin ~75% (Q2 ~72%), full-year adjusted EBITDA margin ~27% (Q2 ~18%), Q1 gross margin 72% (+300 bps), adjusted EBITDA nearly $10M (Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin 14%, up ~800 bps; adj. EBITDA +195% YoY), operating cash flow $16.4M and free cash flow $15.1M (third consecutive quarter ≥$12M) and ~$211M in cash and investments at quarter end.Vericel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 292.09M | 276.26M | 237.22M | 197.52M | 164.37M | 156.18M |
| Gross Profit | 218.59M | 205.60M | 172.11M | 135.58M | 109.79M | 106.03M |
| EBITDA | 35.26M | 30.29M | 16.63M | 2.86M | -11.64M | -4.61M |
| Net Income | 21.46M | 16.52M | 10.36M | -3.18M | -16.71M | -7.47M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 485.63M | 487.97M | 432.72M | 353.66M | 273.00M | 243.71M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 145.34M | 137.50M | 116.21M | 109.56M | 119.54M | 103.40M |
| Total Debt | 94.54M | 98.27M | 98.85M | 88.04M | 47.57M | 50.18M |
| Total Liabilities | 129.40M | 133.33M | 140.75M | 127.70M | 80.73M | 73.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | 356.23M | 354.64M | 291.97M | 225.95M | 192.27M | 170.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 57.81M | 24.75M | -5.81M | 7.80M | 10.09M | 21.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 61.69M | 51.91M | 58.16M | 35.31M | 17.69M | 29.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -33.00M | -43.94M | -79.03M | -3.13M | -36.21M | -3.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 893.00K | 7.07M | 19.05M | 3.62M | 1.04M | 9.17M |
Vericel Technical Analysis
Positive
35.68
Price Trends
36.64
Positive
35.45
Positive
35.85
Positive
Market Momentum
2.57
Negative
73.60
Negative
79.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.77, below the 50-day MA of 36.64, and below the 200-day MA of 35.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.60 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VCEL.
Vericel Risk Analysis
Vericel disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vericel reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vericel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.03B | 7.05 | 64.48% | ― | 20.62% | 696.05% | |
74 Outperform | $2.31B | 105.24 | 6.41% | ― | 22.45% | 602.15% | |
66 Neutral | $4.21B | -23.58 | -32.55% | ― | ― | -7.28% | |
62 Neutral | $2.45B | -5.58 | 123.57% | ― | 75.92% | -569.22% | |
56 Neutral | $2.89B | -8.61 | -50.72% | ― | -88.54% | -58.13% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $1.27B | -21.94 | -38.11% | ― | 18.24% | -5.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
VCEL
Vericel
45.15
3.41
8.17%
BCRX
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CLDX
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67.18%
ARDX
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20.84%
AUPH
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15.80
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EWTX
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39.15
26.12
200.46%
Vericel Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vericel Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay Plan, Auditor
Positive
May 1, 2026
At Vericel Corporation’s April 29, 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, investors re-elected seven directors, including CEO Dominick Colangelo, to one-year terms ending at the 2027 meeting, signaling continued support for the companyR...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.