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Vericel Corporation (VCEL)
:VCEL

Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

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Vericel

(NASDAQ:VCEL)

71Outperform
Vericel's overall stock score benefits from strong financial performance and positive earnings call guidance, indicating robust growth prospects. However, the technical analysis suggests caution due to bearish indicators, and the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. While the company’s strong revenue growth and strategic expansions present opportunities, investors should be mindful of the potential risks associated with its current valuation and technical trends.
Positive Factors
MACI Growth
There are several positive KPI trends for MACI, with a significant increase in the number of MACI biopsies.
Profitability Guidance
VCEL maintained FY25 revenue guidance while raising profitability guidance.
Negative Factors
Epicel Sales
VCEL reported lower-than-expected Epicel sales, which contributed to a decline in overall sales performance.
Revenue Target
The price target has been lowered to $61 from $67 as comparative multiples for the high-growth comp group have retracted.

Vericel (VCEL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyVericel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cell therapy products, MACI and Epicel. The company earns income by manufacturing and delivering these products to hospitals and healthcare providers, who then use them to treat patients. Revenue is largely driven by the volume of MACI and Epicel procedures performed, which is influenced by factors such as the prevalence of knee cartilage injuries and burn incidents, physician adoption rates, and insurance reimbursement policies. Vericel may also engage in strategic partnerships or collaborations that can contribute to its revenue, although the primary focus remains on its proprietary products.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vericel is showing promising financial health with strong revenue and cash flow growth, supported by effective cost management and a manageable debt profile. The company's profitability is improving, although there is room to enhance net margins. With a solid balance sheet and strong cash generation, Vericel is well-positioned for continued growth in the biotechnology sector.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Vericel has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 20.1% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating a solid upward trajectory. The gross profit margin improved to 72.5% in 2024, reflecting effective cost management. However, net profit margin at 4.4% remains modest, suggesting room for improvement in profitability optimization. EBIT margin turned positive at 1.9%, a notable recovery from negative margins, enhancing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity improved to 3.5%, signaling enhanced shareholder value. The equity ratio stands at 67.5%, highlighting a strong equity base. These metrics reflect a solid financial footing but suggest potential for increased returns on equity.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Vericel's cash flow performance is robust, with a significant increase in free cash flow, driven by a 64.6% rise in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 5.6 indicates strong cash generation capability relative to net income. These positive cash flow dynamics underpin financial stability and growth potential.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
237.22M197.52M164.37M156.18M124.18M
Gross Profit
172.11M135.58M109.79M106.03M84.23M
EBIT
4.52M-6.46M-17.06M-7.85M667.00K
EBITDA
16.63M2.86M-11.64M-4.61M9.88M
Net Income Common Stockholders
10.36M-3.18M-16.71M-7.47M2.86M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
116.21M109.56M119.54M103.40M75.81M
Total Assets
432.72M353.66M273.00M243.71M205.61M
Total Debt
98.85M88.04M47.57M50.10M53.18M
Net Debt
24.33M18.95M-3.50M-18.23M19.56M
Total Liabilities
140.75M127.70M80.73M73.24M71.35M
Stockholders Equity
291.97M225.95M192.27M170.46M134.26M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
58.16M7.80M10.09M21.13M14.95M
Operating Cash Flow
58.16M35.31M17.69M29.04M17.57M
Investing Cash Flow
-79.03M-3.13M-36.21M-3.50M-17.16M
Financing Cash Flow
19.05M3.62M1.04M9.17M6.44M

Vericel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price42.54
Price Trends
50DMA
42.70
Positive
100DMA
49.50
Negative
200DMA
49.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Negative
RSI
56.69
Neutral
STOCH
75.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 42.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.71, below the 50-day MA of 42.70, and below the 200-day MA of 49.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Risk Analysis

Vericel disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vericel reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vericel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$2.06B13.5824.71%20.62%14.08%
71
Outperform
$2.14B1,101.771.13%14.80%530.21%
71
Outperform
$2.27B68.682.86%23.42%
66
Neutral
$2.03B48.01-16.56%53.40%-230.86%
54
Neutral
$1.89B-33.98%449.03%42.86%
52
Neutral
$5.19B3.04-44.20%2.82%16.59%-0.39%
51
Neutral
$1.75B-70.58%100.03%64.22%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VCEL
Vericel
43.52
-8.01
-15.54%
LGND
Ligand Pharma
104.92
17.92
20.60%
VCYT
Veracyte
28.81
7.03
32.28%
ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics
14.51
5.03
53.06%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
35.62
5.97
20.13%
TARS
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals
44.88
7.05
18.64%

Vericel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.11%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue performance and promising growth from new product launches such as MACI Arthro. Despite challenges in Epicel revenue and increased operating expenses leading to a net loss, the company maintains a positive outlook with reaffirmed and raised financial guidance, driven by strong cash flow and strategic growth initiatives.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Revenue
Vericel achieved record first quarter revenue, with MACI revenue surpassing $46 million, driven by strong underlying fundamentals and expansion of the MACI surgeon customer base.
Strong MACI Arthro Launch
The MACI Arthro launch shows significant strength, with trained surgeons driving over 30% biopsy growth. Approximately 400 MACI Arthro surgeons have been trained, surpassing the pace of the 2017 MACI launch.
NexoBrid Revenue Growth
NexoBrid revenue increased over 200% compared to the previous year and over 30% sequentially, with a higher proportion of business from consistent ordering centers.
Positive Financial Guidance
Vericel reaffirms full-year revenue guidance of 20% to 23% growth and raises profitability guidance, expecting a strong second quarter with total company revenue growth of 22% to 25%.
Strong Cash Position
The company generated $6.6 million in operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $162 million in cash, restricted cash, and investments, with no debt.
Negative Updates
Decline in Epicel Revenue
Epicel revenue was lower than anticipated due to a high percentage of canceled orders related to patient health issues and timing of surgeries moving to the second quarter.
Increased Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses for the quarter were $49.1 million, up from $40.8 million in the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased headcount and additional costs related to the company’s new facility.
Net Loss Reported
The company reported a net loss for the quarter of $11.2 million or $0.23 per share, with non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA at $3.2 million or 6% of net revenue.
Company Guidance
In the Vericel Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, guidance was provided with several key metrics highlighted. The company projected strong second quarter performance with total revenue growth expected to be between 22% and 25%, amounting to approximately $64 million to $66 million. For the full year, Vericel reaffirmed its revenue growth guidance of 20% to 23% and raised its profitability guidance. MACI achieved record first quarter revenue of over $46 million, with an anticipated second quarter revenue growth of 22% to 24%. NexoBrid revenue increased by over 200% year-over-year and 31% sequentially, while Epicel revenue showed potential for significant improvement in the second quarter despite a first-quarter shortfall. The gross margin is expected to be in the low 70% range for the second quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%. For the full year, the company raised its gross margin guidance to 75% and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 26%. Additionally, plans for a MACI sales force expansion were discussed, aimed at supporting continued growth.

Vericel Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vericel Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Positive
May 2, 2025

At its recent Annual Meeting, Vericel‘s shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm, and adoption of the company’s amended plans. These decisions reflect shareholder support for the company’s current leadership and strategic direction, potentially strengthening Vericel’s position in its industry.

Spark’s Take on VCEL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, VCEL is a Neutral.

Vericel’s overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call guidance, indicating robust growth prospects. However, the technical analysis suggests caution due to bearish indicators, and the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. While the company’s strong revenue growth and strategic expansions present opportunities, investors should be mindful of the potential risks associated with its current valuation and technical trends.

To see Spark’s full report on VCEL stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Vericel Sees Minimal Impact from U.S. Tariffs
Neutral
Apr 14, 2025

Vericel Corporation anticipates minimal impact from the recent U.S. government tariffs on foreign goods, as its operations and revenue are entirely U.S.-based. The company expects that current and future tariffs will have an insignificant effect on its cost of goods sold and gross margin due to its reliance on domestic suppliers and significant safety stock of materials.

Spark’s Take on VCEL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, VCEL is a Neutral.

Vericel Corporation’s stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, indicating a solid growth trajectory. However, technical analysis shows bearish signals, and the valuation appears stretched with a high P/E ratio. While the company demonstrates a robust operational outlook, potential investors should be cautious about the current stock price level and market trends.

To see Spark’s full report on VCEL stock, click here.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.