Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.80B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 568.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 285.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: 16.13%
• EPS Growth: 670.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 50,342,968
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 679,207
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 568,616
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 181.41
• 1Y Price Target: $58.57
• Price Target Upside: 64.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(9.46%Upside)

Vericel's robust financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are strong positives, but the technical analysis reveals bearish momentum, and the valuation suggests potential overvaluation. The market should monitor profitability improvements and market sentiment shifts for future guidance.

Positive Factors

Growth Potential

MACI is expected to become a billion-dollar franchise, indicating strong potential for growth.

Market Demand

The expansion of the MACI surgeon customer base and growth in biopsies suggests increasing demand and market penetration.

Product Development

FDA clearance for the Phase 3 MASCOT study with MACI ankle indicates progress in product development and potential future opportunities.

Negative Factors

Guidance Adjustment

The price target has been lowered to $61 from $67 as comparative multiples for the high-growth comp group have retracted.

Revenue Concerns

Share pressure has been driven by concerns surrounding the revenue acceleration required to meet Street estimates.

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Vericel Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cell therapy products, MACI and Epicel. The company markets MACI for orthopedic applications, particularly targeting patients with knee cartilage damage. Revenue from MACI is driven by the number of procedures performed and the adoption of the therapy by orthopedic surgeons. Epicel is marketed for the treatment of severe burn victims, with revenue dependent on the number of patients treated and the extent of their injuries. Vericel also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with hospitals and healthcare providers to expand the reach and adoption of its products, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory approvals, healthcare reimbursement policies, and the overall demand for regenerative medicine solutions.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vericel demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with a robust gross profit margin of 72.53%. While net profit and ROE are modest, the balance sheet is solid with manageable debt. Significant improvement in cash flow strengthens their financial position.

Income Statement

Vericel shows a consistent revenue growth over the years, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 0.55% from the previous year. The gross profit margin is robust at 72.53%, indicating strong cost control relative to revenue. However, net profit margin dropped to 1.25% in the TTM period due to a decrease in EBIT. The EBITDA margin is healthy at 4.42%, reflecting operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

Vericel maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 69.60%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 indicates moderate leverage, which is manageable. Return on Equity (ROE) improved to 1.01% in the TTM period, though still relatively low, suggesting room for improving profitability.

Cash Flow

The company has demonstrated a strong improvement in free cash flow, with a significant turn from negative in 2024 to positive $43.58 million in the TTM period. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 19.33, showing efficient cash generation capability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 14.63, indicating a need for further improvement in cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	249.12M	237.22M	197.52M	164.37M	156.18M	124.18M
Gross Profit	183.04M	172.11M	135.58M	109.79M	106.03M	84.23M
EBITDA	11.73M	16.63M	2.86M	-11.64M	-4.61M	9.88M
Net Income	7.11M	10.36M	-3.18M	-16.71M	-7.47M	2.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	435.61M	432.72M	353.66M	273.00M	243.71M	205.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	116.88M	116.21M	109.56M	119.54M	103.40M	75.81M
Total Debt	99.76M	98.85M	88.04M	47.57M	50.10M	53.18M
Total Liabilities	128.80M	140.75M	127.70M	80.73M	73.24M	71.35M
Stockholders Equity	306.81M	291.97M	225.95M	192.27M	170.46M	134.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	64.23M	-5.81M	7.80M	10.09M	21.13M	14.95M
Operating Cash Flow	47.24M	58.16M	35.31M	17.69M	29.04M	17.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-60.03M	-79.03M	-3.13M	-36.21M	-3.50M	-17.16M
Financing Cash Flow	17.47M	19.05M	3.62M	1.04M	9.17M	6.44M

Vericel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.63
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.70, below the 50-day MA of 40.79, and below the 200-day MA of 47.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	80 Outperform	$1.98B	13.11	24.71%	―	20.62%	14.08%
VCEL	68 Neutral	$1.80B	285.73	2.59%	―	16.13%	670.90%
VCYT	68 Neutral	$1.85B	56.35	2.86%	―	23.42%	―
LGND	58 Neutral	$2.54B	48.01	-16.56%	―	53.40%	-230.86%
TARS	52 Neutral	$1.71B	―	-33.98%	―	449.03%	42.86%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.37B	0.33	-68.94%	2.37%	16.27%	0.42%
ARQT	48 Neutral	$1.70B	―	-70.58%	―	100.03%	64.22%

Vericel Corporate Events

Vericel Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At its recent Annual Meeting, Vericel‘s shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm, and adoption of the company’s amended plans. These decisions reflect shareholder support for the company’s current leadership and strategic direction, potentially strengthening Vericel’s position in its industry.