Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.10B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 449.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1056.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 14.80%
• EPS Growth: 530.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 50,342,968
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 505,147
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 449,132
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 123.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.61
• 1Y Price Target: $60.00
• Price Target Upside: 52.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $47.00 ▲(19.26%Upside)

Vericel's overall stock score is driven by strong financial guidance and strategic growth prospects highlighted in the earnings call. However, high valuation metrics and technical weaknesses temper the score. Shareholder support in recent corporate events adds a positive note, reflecting confidence in the company's direction.

Positive Factors

Financial Guidance

VCEL maintained FY25 revenue guidance while raising profitability guidance.

Market Expansion

Arthro opens the use of MACI by arthroscopic-only surgeons, potentially adding around 2,000 additional surgeons to its target base.

Product Innovation

Doctors are supportive of the Arthro launch, observing positive early outcomes for patients and quicker procedure times.

Negative Factors

Price Target Adjustment

The price target has been lowered to $61 from $67 as comparative multiples for the high-growth comp group have retracted.

Revenue and Earnings

The company reported total revenues of $52.6M for the quarter, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $53.8M, and a net loss of $0.23 per share, compared to the consensus estimated net loss of $0.13 per share.

Revenue Performance

VCEL reported lower-than-expected Epicel sales, which contributed to a decline in overall sales performance.

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vericel Corporation (VCEL) is a leading biotechnology company specializing in advanced cell therapies for the treatment of patients with severe diseases and conditions. The company primarily operates in the regenerative medicine sector, focusing on developing and commercializing innovative therapies that repair and regenerate damaged tissues. Vericel's core products include MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the treatment of cartilage defects in the knee, and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement for patients with severe burns.

How the Company Makes Money

Vericel Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cell therapy products, MACI and Epicel. The company markets MACI for orthopedic applications, particularly targeting patients with knee cartilage damage. Revenue from MACI is driven by the number of procedures performed and the adoption of the therapy by orthopedic surgeons. Epicel is marketed for the treatment of severe burn victims, with revenue dependent on the number of patients treated and the extent of their injuries. Vericel also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with hospitals and healthcare providers to expand the reach and adoption of its products, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory approvals, healthcare reimbursement policies, and the overall demand for regenerative medicine solutions.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vericel demonstrates strong revenue growth and cost management with robust gross margins. The balance sheet is solid with manageable debt, but profitability measures like net margins and ROE are modest. Cash flow has improved significantly, indicating a solid operational foundation.

Income Statement

Vericel shows a consistent revenue growth over the years, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 0.55% from the previous year. The gross profit margin is robust at 72.53%, indicating strong cost control relative to revenue. However, net profit margin dropped to 1.25% in the TTM period due to a decrease in EBIT. The EBITDA margin is healthy at 4.42%, reflecting operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

Vericel maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 69.60%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 indicates moderate leverage, which is manageable. Return on Equity (ROE) improved to 1.01% in the TTM period, though still relatively low, suggesting room for improving profitability.

Cash Flow

The company has demonstrated a strong improvement in free cash flow, with a significant turn from negative in 2024 to positive $43.58 million in the TTM period. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 19.33, showing efficient cash generation capability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 14.63, indicating a need for further improvement in cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	238.54M	237.22M	197.52M	164.37M	156.18M	124.18M
Gross Profit	173.03M	172.11M	135.58M	109.79M	106.03M	84.23M
EBITDA	10.55M	16.63M	2.86M	-11.64M	-4.61M	9.88M
Net Income	2.98M	10.36M	-3.18M	-16.71M	-7.47M	2.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	424.59M	432.72M	353.66M	273.00M	243.71M	205.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	112.90M	116.21M	109.56M	119.54M	103.40M	75.81M
Total Debt	98.97M	98.85M	88.04M	47.57M	50.10M	53.18M
Total Liabilities	129.10M	140.75M	127.70M	80.73M	73.24M	71.35M
Stockholders Equity	295.49M	291.97M	225.95M	192.27M	170.46M	134.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	43.58M	-5.81M	7.80M	10.09M	21.13M	14.95M
Operating Cash Flow	57.56M	58.16M	35.31M	17.69M	29.04M	17.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-68.72M	-79.03M	-3.13M	-36.21M	-3.50M	-17.16M
Financing Cash Flow	20.13M	19.05M	3.62M	1.04M	9.17M	6.44M

Vericel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.31, below the 50-day MA of 41.58, and below the 200-day MA of 48.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	76 Outperform	$1.85B	12.29	24.71%	―	20.62%	14.08%
HRMY	76 Outperform	$1.85B	12.29	24.71%	―	20.62%	14.08%
VCEL	71 Outperform	$2.10B	1,056.71	1.13%	―	14.80%	530.21%
VCYT	66 Neutral	$2.06B	62.79	2.86%	―	23.42%	―
VCYT	66 Neutral	$2.06B	62.79	2.86%	―	23.42%	―
Sector *	59 Neutral	HK$15.37B	5.69	-7.44%	4.08%	11.55%	-28.15%
LGND	55 Neutral	$2.19B	48.01	-16.56%	―	53.40%	-230.86%
LGND	55 Neutral	$2.19B	48.01	-16.56%	―	53.40%	-230.86%
TARS	51 Neutral	$1.68B	―	-33.98%	―	449.03%	42.86%
TARS	51 Neutral	$1.68B	―	-33.98%	―	449.03%	42.86%
ARQT	48 Neutral	$1.60B	―	-70.58%	―	100.03%	64.22%
ARQT	48 Neutral	$1.60B	―	-70.58%	―	100.03%	64.22%

Vericel Corporate Events

Vericel Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At its recent Annual Meeting, Vericel‘s shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm, and adoption of the company’s amended plans. These decisions reflect shareholder support for the company’s current leadership and strategic direction, potentially strengthening Vericel’s position in its industry.

Vericel Sees Minimal Impact from U.S. Tariffs

Vericel Corporation anticipates minimal impact from the recent U.S. government tariffs on foreign goods, as its operations and revenue are entirely U.S.-based. The company expects that current and future tariffs will have an insignificant effect on its cost of goods sold and gross margin due to its reliance on domestic suppliers and significant safety stock of materials.