Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 515.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 156.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 14.05%
• EPS Growth: 241.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 50,574,024
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 455,017
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 515,274
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -461.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 80.06
• 1Y Price Target: $57.67
• Price Target Upside: 52.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(3.45% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a strong, upbeat earnings call highlighting record results and constructive guidance. This is tempered by expensive valuation (very high P/E with no dividend) and mixed-to-weak technical positioning with the stock trading below key moving averages.

Positive Factors

MACI Adoption

Sustained double-digit MACI growth and rapid surgeon training indicate durable procedural adoption and network effects. A growing base of trained surgeons increases repeat implant volume, supports pricing power, and underpins multi-year revenue scalability as MACI Arthro and utilization expand.

High Margin Profile

Very high gross margins and expanding adjusted EBITDA reflect meaningful pricing power and operating leverage typical of specialized cell therapies. This margin durability funds R&D, commercial expansion, and manufacturing investments while enhancing resilience to cost variability as revenue scales.

Strong Liquidity & Capacity Plans

A substantial cash balance with no debt provides long-term financial flexibility to fund commercialization, clinical programs, and capacity expansion without near-term external financing. Planned manufacturing scale-up reduces supply constraints and supports sustainable revenue growth execution.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Conversion

Negative FCF growth and subunitary conversion from net income signal working-capital or capex pressure despite GAAP profitability. Persistent conversion shortfalls can limit self-funding for commercial expansion and manufacturing, forcing tighter cash management or external financing as growth continues.

Reimbursement & Government Risks

Reimbursement uncertainties and government process delays are structural headwinds: payer size limits can cap addressable procedures for MACI Arthro, while BARDA or regulatory delays can postpone revenue streams. Policy and procurement timelines often take many quarters to resolve, limiting upside visibility.

Revenue Concentration & Variability

Heavy reliance on MACI for the bulk of revenue plus variable burn-care sales (Epicel/NexoBrid) raises concentration and volatility risk. If MACI adoption slows or Epicel demand swings seasonally, consolidated revenue and cash-flow predictability could be meaningfully affected over the medium term.

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Vericel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its proprietary cell therapy products, MACI and Epicel. The company has a direct sales force that markets these products to hospitals and specialty healthcare providers, which allows it to retain a larger share of the revenue. Additionally, Vericel may benefit from partnerships with healthcare organizations and research institutions that can help in the development and commercialization of new therapies. The company's revenue model is also supported by the growing acceptance of regenerative medicine and the increasing number of surgical procedures that utilize its products. Furthermore, ongoing research and development efforts may lead to new product offerings, which could enhance future revenue streams.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are solid (73.81% gross margin and improved 5.06% net margin), and leverage looks manageable (debt-to-equity 0.30 with a strong 70.99% equity ratio). The main offset is cash-flow quality: free cash flow growth is negative (-29.39%) and conversion from earnings to free cash flow is only moderate (FCF/net income 0.77).

Income Statement

Vericel has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.85% and a solid gross profit margin of 73.81%. The net profit margin has improved to 5.06% in the TTM, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin remains relatively low at 3.33%, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.30, indicating a stable leverage position. Return on equity has increased to 4.30%, reflecting better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at 70.99%, showcasing a strong equity base, although there is potential for further improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong with a coverage ratio of 1.30, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow growth is negative at -29.39%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.77, suggesting challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	258.72M	237.22M	197.52M	164.37M	156.18M	124.18M
Gross Profit	190.97M	172.11M	135.58M	109.79M	106.03M	84.23M
EBITDA	23.79M	16.63M	2.86M	-11.64M	-4.61M	5.43M
Net Income	13.08M	10.36M	-3.18M	-16.71M	-7.47M	2.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	453.27M	432.72M	353.66M	273.00M	243.71M	205.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	135.38M	116.21M	109.56M	119.54M	103.40M	75.81M
Total Debt	98.01M	98.85M	88.04M	47.57M	50.18M	53.30M
Total Liabilities	131.42M	140.75M	127.70M	80.73M	73.24M	71.35M
Stockholders Equity	321.86M	291.97M	225.95M	192.27M	170.46M	134.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	42.72M	-5.81M	7.80M	10.09M	21.13M	14.95M
Operating Cash Flow	59.14M	58.16M	35.31M	17.69M	29.04M	17.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-42.20M	-79.03M	-3.13M	-36.21M	-3.50M	-17.16M
Financing Cash Flow	13.11M	19.05M	3.62M	1.04M	9.17M	6.44M

Vericel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 37.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.77, below the 50-day MA of 37.99, and below the 200-day MA of 37.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AUPH	79 Outperform	$1.94B	26.22	20.65%	―	20.62%	―
VCEL	65 Neutral	$1.91B	156.56	4.52%	―	14.05%	241.86%
ARDX	59 Neutral	$1.90B	-32.93	-36.18%	―	58.12%	24.08%
EWTX	55 Neutral	$2.97B	-17.77	-30.02%	―	―	-5.73%
CLDX	53 Neutral	$1.77B	-7.86	-32.44%	―	-73.94%	-31.70%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
BCRX	51 Neutral	$1.70B	-145.03	―	―	45.38%	92.85%

Vericel Corporate Events

Vericel Issues Strong Preliminary 2025 Financial Results

On January 13, 2026, Vericel reported preliminary, unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, expecting total 2025 net revenue of about $276 million, including $239.5 million from MACI and $36.5 million from its burn care portfolio. The company anticipates a 74% gross margin, a 26% adjusted EBITDA margin, GAAP net income profitability for a second consecutive year, and a cash and investments balance of $200 million with no debt, driven by 23% fourth-quarter revenue growth and at least 20% annual MACI revenue growth for the third straight year. Operationally, Vericel reported record quarterly volumes in MACI implants and biopsies, a completed MACI sales force expansion, more than 900 MACI Arthro-trained surgeons by year-end 2025, the initiation of the MACI Ankle MASCOT clinical study, and continued progress toward starting MACI commercial manufacturing at a new facility in 2026, underscoring its strengthening position in cell-based sports medicine therapies and capacity expansion to support future demand. These results remain subject to completion of internal controls, review and audit procedures and may change once final financial statements are issued.

The most recent analyst rating on (VCEL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vericel stock, see the VCEL Stock Forecast page.