Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 551.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 163.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 14.05%
• EPS Growth: 241.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 50,574,024
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 355,346
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 551,157
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -461.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 89.46
• 1Y Price Target: $53.20
• Price Target Upside: 35.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $43.00 ▲(9.30% Upside)

Vericel's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive technical indicators, indicating a solid growth trajectory. The earnings call further supports this with record revenue and strategic initiatives for future growth. However, the high P/E ratio suggests the stock may be overvalued, which is a risk factor to consider.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue growth, particularly in MACI, underscores strong market demand and positions Vericel for continued expansion in regenerative medicine.

International Expansion

Expanding into international markets like the U.K. can significantly broaden Vericel's customer base and revenue potential, enhancing long-term growth prospects.

Profitability and Cash Generation

Improved profitability and strong cash generation indicate efficient operations and financial health, supporting sustainable business growth.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Conversion Challenges

Negative free cash flow growth may limit Vericel's ability to reinvest in business expansion and innovation, potentially impacting future growth.

Reimbursement Challenges

Insurance reimbursement restrictions could hinder MACI Arthro's market penetration, affecting revenue growth and market expansion efforts.

Epicel Revenue Variability

Unpredictable revenue from Epicel introduces uncertainty in financial projections, complicating strategic planning and resource allocation.

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Vericel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its proprietary cell therapy products, MACI and Epicel. The company has a direct sales force that markets these products to hospitals and specialty healthcare providers, which allows it to retain a larger share of the revenue. Additionally, Vericel may benefit from partnerships with healthcare organizations and research institutions that can help in the development and commercialization of new therapies. The company's revenue model is also supported by the growing acceptance of regenerative medicine and the increasing number of surgical procedures that utilize its products. Furthermore, ongoing research and development efforts may lead to new product offerings, which could enhance future revenue streams.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vericel demonstrates a solid financial position with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable leverage position and strong equity base. However, the company faces challenges in cash flow conversion, with negative free cash flow growth. Overall, Vericel is on a positive trajectory but needs to focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow management.

Income Statement

Vericel has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.85% and a solid gross profit margin of 73.81%. The net profit margin has improved to 5.06% in the TTM, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin remains relatively low at 3.33%, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.30, indicating a stable leverage position. Return on equity has increased to 4.30%, reflecting better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at 70.99%, showcasing a strong equity base, although there is potential for further improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong with a coverage ratio of 1.30, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow growth is negative at -29.39%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.77, suggesting challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	258.72M	237.22M	197.52M	164.37M	156.18M	124.18M
Gross Profit	190.97M	172.11M	135.58M	109.79M	106.03M	84.23M
EBITDA	23.79M	16.63M	2.86M	-11.64M	-4.61M	5.43M
Net Income	13.08M	10.36M	-3.18M	-16.71M	-7.47M	2.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	453.27M	432.72M	353.66M	273.00M	243.71M	205.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	135.38M	116.21M	109.56M	119.54M	103.40M	75.81M
Total Debt	98.01M	98.85M	88.04M	47.57M	50.18M	53.30M
Total Liabilities	131.42M	140.75M	127.70M	80.73M	73.24M	71.35M
Stockholders Equity	321.86M	291.97M	225.95M	192.27M	170.46M	134.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	42.72M	-5.81M	7.80M	10.09M	21.13M	14.95M
Operating Cash Flow	59.14M	58.16M	35.31M	17.69M	29.04M	17.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-42.20M	-79.03M	-3.13M	-36.21M	-3.50M	-17.16M
Financing Cash Flow	13.11M	19.05M	3.62M	1.04M	9.17M	6.44M

Vericel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.85, above the 50-day MA of 37.65, and above the 200-day MA of 38.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AUPH	79 Outperform	$2.02B	27.52	20.65%	―	20.62%	―
VCEL	71 Outperform	$1.88B	163.37	4.52%	―	14.05%	241.86%
BCRX	55 Neutral	$1.56B	-160.25	―	―	45.38%	92.85%
ARDX	55 Neutral	$1.48B	-23.47	-36.18%	―	58.12%	24.08%
EWTX	55 Neutral	$2.50B	-14.54	-30.02%	―	―	-5.73%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CLDX	41 Neutral	$1.70B	-7.77	-32.44%	―	-73.94%	-31.70%