Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 616.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 297.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 16.13%
• EPS Growth: 670.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 50,460,205
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 525,296
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 616,259
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -461.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 131.44
• 1Y Price Target: $54.57
• Price Target Upside: 47.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(5.32% Upside)

Vericel's robust financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are strong positives, but the technical analysis reveals bearish momentum, and the valuation suggests potential overvaluation. The market should monitor profitability improvements and market sentiment shifts for future guidance.

Positive Factors

Innovation

Arthro opens use of MACI by arthroscopic-only surgeons, potentially expanding the target base significantly.

Product Development

FDA clearance for the Phase 3 MASCOT study with MACI ankle indicates progress in product development and potential future opportunities.

Surgeon Base Expansion

The expansion of the MACI surgeon customer base and growth in biopsies suggests increasing demand and market penetration.

Negative Factors

Revenue Concerns

Share pressure has been driven by concerns surrounding the revenue acceleration required to meet Street estimates.

Sales Performance

VCEL reported 2Q25 sales of $63.2mn, which is 2% below consensus of $64.5mn.

Valuation Concerns

Valuation now sits meaningfully below historical levels, with VCEL's current NTM EV/Sales multiple relative to the IHI of 1.1x near its 3Y trough of 0.9x, which is believed to reflect the variability in pro forma Burn Care numbers.

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Vericel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its advanced cell therapy products. Key revenue streams include sales from MACI and Epicel, which are marketed to hospitals and medical facilities specializing in orthopedic and burn care. The company also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions that facilitate the adoption of its therapies. Additionally, Vericel's revenue is supported by ongoing investments in the development of new therapies and enhancements to existing products, which may lead to expanded market opportunities and increased sales.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vericel shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability, with a solid balance sheet featuring low leverage. Positive cash flow trends further reinforce its financial health. However, there's room for increased profitability and shareholder returns.

Income Statement

Vericel's income statement shows strong growth with Total Revenue increasing by 26.6% from 2023 to TTM. The Gross Profit Margin is high at 73.5% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the Net Profit Margin is modest at 2.9%, signaling room for improvement in profitability. The company has turned profitable from previous losses, which is a positive trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.33, indicating low leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 70.4%, demonstrating strong equity financing. Return on Equity (ROE) for TTM is 2.3%, which, while positive, suggests potential for enhanced shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Vericel's cash flow shows improvement with Free Cash Flow turning positive in TTM. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is notably high at 9.04, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Operating Cash Flow remains robust, though the growth rate has fluctuated over the years.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	249.12M	237.22M	197.52M	164.37M	156.18M	124.18M
Gross Profit	183.04M	172.11M	135.58M	109.79M	106.03M	84.23M
EBITDA	16.19M	16.63M	2.86M	-11.64M	-4.61M	9.88M
Net Income	7.11M	10.36M	-3.18M	-16.71M	-7.47M	2.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	435.61M	432.72M	353.66M	273.00M	243.71M	205.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	116.88M	116.21M	109.56M	119.54M	103.40M	75.81M
Total Debt	101.54M	98.85M	88.04M	47.57M	50.10M	53.18M
Total Liabilities	128.80M	140.75M	127.70M	80.73M	73.24M	71.35M
Stockholders Equity	306.81M	291.97M	225.95M	192.27M	170.46M	134.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	64.23M	-5.81M	7.80M	10.09M	21.13M	14.95M
Operating Cash Flow	47.24M	58.16M	35.31M	17.69M	29.04M	17.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-60.03M	-79.03M	-3.13M	-36.21M	-3.50M	-17.16M
Financing Cash Flow	17.47M	19.05M	3.62M	1.04M	9.17M	6.44M

Vericel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 37.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.89, below the 50-day MA of 38.98, and below the 200-day MA of 47.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	81 Outperform	$2.18B	12.20	27.58%	―	17.74%	59.96%
VCYT	70 Outperform	$2.44B	93.18	2.24%	―	19.91%	―
VCEL	68 Neutral	$1.87B	296.95	2.59%	―	16.13%	670.90%
LGND	67 Neutral	$3.12B	48.01	-9.46%	―	40.54%	-264.26%
ARQT	58 Neutral	$1.92B	―	-57.33%	―	99.50%	65.91%
TARS	54 Neutral	$2.42B	―	-31.46%	―	254.45%	48.06%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.88B	-0.12	-39.83%	2.18%	21.38%	-1.56%

Vericel Corporate Events

Vericel Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At its recent Annual Meeting, Vericel‘s shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm, and adoption of the company’s amended plans. These decisions reflect shareholder support for the company’s current leadership and strategic direction, potentially strengthening Vericel’s position in its industry.