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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH)
NASDAQ:AUPH
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:AUPH)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(9.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by the improved fundamentals (revenue scale-up, strong cash generation, and low leverage) and a generally positive earnings call with double-digit 2026 growth guidance. These strengths are tempered by weak technical signals and uncertainties around the sustainability of reported profitability given the material one-time tax benefits, alongside competitive and regulatory risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Commercial Traction
Sustained double-digit LUPKYNIS sales growth and explicit 2026 guidance indicate durable market adoption in lupus nephritis. Continued top-line expansion supports scale economics, stronger gross margins, broader clinical uptake, and a more predictable revenue base for reinvestment and commercialization.
Improved Cash Generation
Material swing to positive operating and free cash flow provides self-funded growth capacity and reduces reliance on external financing. Strong FCF enhances ability to fund R&D, commercial expansion, and regulatory work while absorbing variability from clinical timelines or reimbursement headwinds.
Balance Sheet Strength & Capital Flexibility
Low leverage, substantial cash reserves and active buybacks signal financial flexibility to support pipeline programs, defend market share, or pursue partnerships. A strong balance sheet reduces short-term funding risk and provides optionality for strategic investments or regulatory contingencies.
Negative Factors
Profitability Driven by One-Time Tax Benefit
A large, non-recurring tax benefit materially inflated 2025 net income and EPS, making reported profitability an unreliable indicator of ongoing operating performance. If one-time benefits are absent in future years, net margins and retained earnings could contract despite steady product sales.
Regulatory Uncertainty from Pediatric Study Termination
Termination triggers regulatory follow-up and negotiations with FDA, creating uncertainty on labeling commitments, potential additional trials, and timing. Such regulatory obligations can increase development costs, delay market expansions, and complicate global reimbursement or guideline adoption.
Emerging Competition in Lupus Nephritis
A newly approved competitor introduces sustained pressure on market share, pricing and sequencing decisions. Durable revenue outcomes depend on maintaining clinical differentiation and payer coverage; competitive shifts could slow adoption or require higher commercial spend to defend share.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)823.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth20.62%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees130
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.53
Shares Outstanding131,840,560
10 Day Avg. Volume710,035
30 Day Avg. Volume823,218
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.69
Price to Sales (P/S)7.57
P/FCF Ratio15.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.25Price Target Upside14.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$326.80M
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies to treat various diseases with unmet medical need in the United States and internationally. The company offers LUPKYNIS for the treatment of adult patients with active lupus nephritis. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company is headquartered in Victoria, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyAurinia Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the sale of its flagship product, LUPKYNIS, which is prescribed to patients with lupus nephritis. The company has established a revenue model that includes direct sales to healthcare providers, as well as potential partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical distributors and other stakeholders in the healthcare sector. Additionally, Aurinia may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing agreements related to its product and technology. The company's financial performance can also be influenced by factors such as market demand for lupus nephritis treatments, reimbursement policies from insurance providers, and the overall competitive landscape in the biopharmaceutical industry.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights robust commercial momentum for LUPKYNIS with double-digit top-line growth, materially improved cash generation, a strong balance sheet and share repurchases. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance and disclosed promising early clinical results for aritinercept. Offsetting these positives are a significant one-time tax benefit that materially boosted reported net income, termination of a pediatric study (creating regulatory follow-up risk), emerging competition (Gazyva), limited near-term transparency on quarterly performance, and early-stage development uncertainties (ADAs). Overall, the positives—sustained product revenue growth, strong cash flow, and advancing pipeline—outweigh the headwinds, though some risks remain.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong LUPKYNIS Commercial Growth
Net product sales of LUPKYNIS for full year 2025 were $271.3M, up 25% year-over-year from $216.2M. Management reported LUPKYNIS sales grew 25% in 2025 and expects 2026 net product sales of $305M–$315M (up 12%–16% vs. 2025).
Quarterly Revenue and Sales Upside
Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $77.1M, up 29% from $59.9M in Q4 2024. Q4 net product sales of LUPKYNIS were $74.2M, up 29% from $57.6M in Q4 2024.
Substantial Improvement in Profitability and EPS
Reported net income for FY2025 was $287.2M (vs. $5.8M in 2024, up 4,852%) and diluted EPS was $2.07 (up 5,075% from $0.04). Q4 2025 diluted EPS was $1.53 (up 15,200% from $0.01).
Strong Cash Generation and Balance Sheet Actions
Cash flows from operating activities for FY2025 were $135.7M, up 206% from $44.4M in 2024; Q4 cash flow from ops was $45.7M, up 52% YoY. Cash, cash equivalents and investments totaled $398M (vs. $358.5M at 12/31/2024). Company repurchased 12.2M common shares for $98.2M, reducing fully diluted shares from 149.8M to 139.7M.
2026 Revenue Guidance Reflects Continued Growth
Company expects total revenue of $315M–$325M for 2026 (up 11%–15% vs. 2025) and net product sales of $305M–$315M (up 12%–16% vs. 2025), reflecting continued commercial momentum.
Promising Early-Stage Clinical Progress for Aritinercept
Aritinercept (dual BAFF–APRIL inhibitor) completed Phase I single-ascending-dose testing with good tolerability. Single doses produced robust, durable reductions in immunoglobulins supportive of once-monthly dosing. Company initiated a clinical study in one autoimmune indication and plans a second study in H1 2026; additional details expected in Q2 2026.
Negative Updates
Net Income Heavily Influenced by One-Time Tax Benefit
Q4 2025 net income included an income tax benefit of $175.1M and FY2025 included $173M related to the release of a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets. Management notes this benefit primarily drove the large YoY net income and EPS improvements, indicating part of the profitability gain is non-recurring.
Pediatric Study Termination and Regulatory Uncertainty
A pediatric (vocal) study was terminated due to technical/recruitment issues. Company will negotiate with FDA on fulfilling pediatric commitments for lupus nephritis — a regulatory path and timing uncertainty.
Emerging Competition (Gazyva) in Lupus Nephritis
Roche's Gazyva was recently approved for LN. Management reported no near-term impact to date but acknowledged the guidance accounts for competition. Competitive dynamics introduce market share and sequencing uncertainty even though company emphasizes LUPKYNIS' rapid proteinuria reduction.
Geographic and Market Penetration Limitations Outside U.S.
Management does not expect other global markets (Europe, Japan) to match U.S. penetration due to pricing, reimbursement and guideline implementation differences; ex-U.S. contribution is expected to remain a smaller percentage of overall revenue.
Antidrug Antibodies Observed (Low Titers)
In clinical testing of aritinercept, antidrug antibodies (ADAs) were observed at low titers at doses ≥25 mg. Management reported no current impact on injection site reactions or pharmacokinetics, but ADA presence will require ongoing monitoring in development.
Conservative Near-Term Commercial Visibility
Management declined to provide Q1 2026 sales guidance/steer and described their 2026 guidance as conservative relative to recent run-rate; lack of quarter-level guidance reduces near-term transparency for investors.
Company Guidance
On the call Aurinia provided 2026 guidance of total revenue of $315–$325 million (up 11%–15% vs. 2025) and net product sales of LUPKYNIS of $305–$315 million (up 12%–16% vs. 2025); that outlook is framed by FY‑2025 results of total revenue $283.1M (up 20% vs. $235.1M in 2024, or +26% excluding a $10M 2024 milestone), LUPKYNIS sales $271.3M (up 25% YoY), net income $287.2M (driven in part by a $173M income tax benefit), diluted EPS $2.07, operating cash flow $135.7M (up 206% YoY), cash and investments of $398M, and recent share repurchases of 12.2M shares for $98.2M that reduced fully diluted shares from 149.8M to 139.7M; Q4 highlights included revenue $77.1M, LUPKYNIS sales $74.2M (both +29% YoY), Q4 net income $210.8M (driven by a $175.1M tax benefit), diluted EPS $1.53, and Q4 operating cash flow $45.7M (up 52% YoY).Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong financial inflection with revenue scaling to $283M in 2025, profitability and EBITDA strength, and a low-leverage balance sheet. Operating cash flow and free cash flow turned solidly positive in 2024–2025, supporting earnings quality. Main risk is sustainability given prior multi-year losses and 2025 net results being boosted by significant tax benefits.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the last several years (from ~$50M in 2020 to $283M in 2025), with positive growth continuing in 2024 and 2025. Profitability has improved sharply: after sizable losses from 2020–2023, the company generated strong profits in 2024 and a very strong 2025 with high gross profitability and solid EBITDA margin (~37%). The main weakness is earnings volatility—profitability is relatively new and the 2025 net margin above 100% suggests results may include meaningful non-operating or one-time benefits, making the sustainability of that level of net income less certain.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears conservative, with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity improved to ~0.13 in 2025 after being ~0.21 in 2024). Equity and assets expanded materially in 2025, and returns to shareholders strengthened significantly alongside the swing to profitability. The key watch-out is that the balance sheet strength is tied to recent earnings momentum—given the company’s history of losses, future profitability consistency is important to maintain these improved returns.83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation improved dramatically: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned strongly positive in 2024 and expanded further in 2025 (to ~$136M), with healthy year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2025. Free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings in both 2024 and 2025, which supports earnings quality. The weakness is the historical instability—cash flows were significantly negative from 2020–2023, so the durability of the new cash flow profile still needs to be proven across cycles.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 283.06M | 235.13M | 175.51M | 134.03M | 45.60M |
| Gross Profit | 250.39M | 206.88M | 161.37M | 128.37M | 44.51M |
| EBITDA | 127.76M | 31.73M | -63.05M | -103.65M | -177.44M |
| Net Income | 287.20M | 5.75M | -78.02M | -108.18M | -180.97M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 751.59M | 550.64M | 548.06M | 470.86M | 543.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 398.00M | 358.48M | 350.49M | 389.39M | 466.08M |
| Total Debt | 74.81M | 79.37M | 97.61M | 8.09M | 8.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 170.26M | 173.17M | 170.11M | 65.42M | 64.28M |
| Stockholders Equity | 581.33M | 377.48M | 377.95M | 405.44M | 479.09M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 135.41M | 44.11M | -34.18M | -79.82M | -159.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 135.66M | 44.39M | -33.46M | -79.53M | -157.69M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.77M | 39.26M | -6.71M | -60.63M | -103.87M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -106.11M | -49.09M | -5.13M | 2.43M | 221.11M |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Negative
14.17
Price Trends
15.03
Negative
14.48
Negative
12.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
42.03
Neutral
35.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUPH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.49, below the 50-day MA of 15.03, and above the 200-day MA of 12.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AUPH.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.88B | 6.82 | 20.65% | ― | 20.62% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $2.19B | 7.27 | ― | ― | 45.38% | 92.85% | |
56 Neutral | $2.00B | -7.72 | -40.62% | ― | -73.94% | -31.70% | |
55 Neutral | $1.01B | 34.78 | ― | ― | 17.44% | 24.15% | |
53 Neutral | $1.64B | -45.59 | -9.59% | ― | 27.51% | 38.72% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.76B | -1.99 | -63.17% | ― | 47.15% | -311.26% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AUPH
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
14.17
6.22
78.24%
BCRX
BioCryst
8.75
0.14
1.63%
CLDX
Celldex
30.09
9.52
46.28%
MNKD
MannKind
3.28
-2.06
-38.58%
SRPT
Sarepta Therapeutics
16.76
-89.99
-84.30%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
32.30
2.93
9.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.