Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.95B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.56
• Revenue Growth: -9.21%
• EPS Growth: -8.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 217,691,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,884,639
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,561,533
• PEG Ratio: -0.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 43.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 27.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 31.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.64
• 1Y Price Target: $24.13
• Price Target Upside: 154.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.34
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $56.78M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▼(-15.79% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large and widening losses plus accelerating cash burn) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook centered on strong trial progress, upcoming SOL-1 data, and an extended cash runway, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Proprietary sustained‑release platform

Owning a differentiated hydrogel sustained‑release delivery platform with a commercial product (Dextenza) lowers development risk and creates a repeatable product engine. This technology can drive durable market differentiation, stronger uptake for pipeline assets, and higher switching costs versus generics.

Very high gross margins

Sustained gross margins near 90% reflect favorable product economics and low COGS, enabling scalable revenue growth to flow to the operating line if R&D and SG&A are controlled. High margins support long‑term profitability potential as commercial scale increases.

Substantial cash runway from financing

A multi‑year cash runway backed by recent financing materially reduces near‑term refinancing risk and funds pivotal programs (SOL‑1, HELIOS). This allows the company to execute clinical catalysts and commercialization planning without immediate dilution, supporting multi‑year strategic execution.

Negative Factors

Worsening cash burn

Deepening annual cash consumption materially increases the probability of future financing or dilution if revenue improvements lag. Persistent negative cash flow constrains investment optionality, weakens financial resilience, and is a durable risk until operating cash generation improves or costs are cut.

Widening net losses

Accelerating net losses indicate the business remains unprofitable despite strong unit economics. Continued widening losses erode equity returns and limit strategic flexibility, increasing reliance on capital markets and making long‑term sustainability contingent on successful commercialization or materially lower operating spend.

Commercial and clinical execution risks

Structural pricing pressure in the anti‑VEGF market and potential difficulty enrolling NPDR patients threaten addressable market capture and timing of label expansions. These durable headwinds can compress revenue potential and delay or reduce returns from pivotal programs even if efficacy is demonstrated.

Ocular Therapeutix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. The company has a strategic collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Regeneron) for the development and commercialization of products using the Company's sustained-release hydrogel in combination with Regeneron's large molecule VEGF-targeting compounds for the treatment of retinal diseases; and AffaMed Therapeutics Limited for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC, as well as a discovery collaboration with Mosaic Biosciences to identify new targets and therapeutic agents for the treatment of dry age-related macular degeneration (dMAD). Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocular Therapeutix generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercialized products, with Dextenza being the main contributor to its earnings. The company also engages in various partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to develop and commercialize additional therapies, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the sales of these products. Additionally, the company may receive funding through grants or research agreements to support the development of its pipeline products, further contributing to its overall revenue stream.

Ocular Therapeutix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong gross margins and a much improved leverage profile (low debt-to-equity by 2025) are positives, but they are outweighed by widening net losses in 2025 and substantially worsening operating/free cash flow, raising ongoing funding risk if burn continues.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown over the long run (2020–2024) but declined in 2025 (down ~7% year over year). Gross margin remains very strong (roughly ~87%–91%), indicating solid product economics. However, profitability is the key weakness: operating losses and net losses are large and have widened materially in 2025 versus 2024 (net loss of ~$266M vs. ~$194M), keeping net margins deeply negative.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved significantly, with debt-to-equity dropping from very elevated levels in 2022 to low levels by 2025 (~0.12), supported by a sharp increase in equity. Total debt is relatively stable (~$64M–$83M range across the period) while the equity base expanded meaningfully, which strengthens financial flexibility. The main weakness is continued negative returns on equity driven by ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Cash burn is substantial and worsening: operating cash flow fell from about -$135M in 2024 to about -$205M in 2025, and free cash flow was about -$217M in 2025. While free cash flow tracked net losses closely (free cash flow roughly in line with net income), the company is still consuming significant cash each year, increasing funding/refinancing risk if losses persist.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	51.82M	63.72M	58.44M	51.49M	43.52M
Gross Profit	45.25M	58.10M	53.16M	46.95M	39.12M
EBITDA	-249.78M	-176.14M	-66.42M	-61.91M	2.54M
Net Income	-265.94M	-193.51M	-80.74M	-71.04M	-6.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	808.06M	457.94M	252.06M	149.29M	204.89M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	737.06M	392.10M	195.81M	102.30M	164.16M
Total Debt	79.78M	75.78M	83.39M	64.28M	58.98M
Total Liabilities	153.75M	142.59M	160.93M	113.91M	116.89M
Stockholders Equity	654.31M	315.34M	91.13M	35.38M	88.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-216.89M	-135.97M	-76.32M	-63.32M	-66.74M
Operating Cash Flow	-204.88M	-134.68M	-70.23M	-59.60M	-65.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.88M	-1.29M	-6.09M	-3.71M	-1.19M
Financing Cash Flow	561.72M	332.11M	169.83M	1.45M	2.85M

Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCUL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.74, below the 50-day MA of 10.68, and below the 200-day MA of 10.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OCUL.

Ocular Therapeutix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BEAM	63 Neutral	$3.28B	-29.15	-8.11%	―	-84.07%	-157.71%
TARS	62 Neutral	$3.19B	-45.13	-23.39%	―	182.44%	47.21%
BLTE	62 Neutral	$6.49B	-97.95	-32.30%	―	―	-73.27%
SPRY	54 Neutral	$903.48M	-11.40	-45.92%	―	5459.66%	-59.70%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
OCUL	51 Neutral	$1.95B	-6.60	-54.85%	―	-9.21%	-8.84%

Ocular Therapeutix Corporate Events

Ocular Therapeutix appoints Jason Robins interim CFO

Effective January 20, 2026, Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. announced that Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer Donald Notman has taken a temporary medical leave of absence. On the same date, the board appointed Jason Robins, previously Senior Vice President of Finance, as interim Chief Financial Officer and as the company’s principal financial and accounting officer, granting him a stock option for 33,000 shares vesting over four years under the company’s 2021 Stock Incentive Plan. Robins, 49, joined Ocular Therapeutix in January 2025 after serving as Vice President of Finance at Fusion Pharmaceuticals Inc., and his appointment involves no related-party transactions or special arrangements with other company insiders, signaling a routine, internally sourced leadership transition with standard indemnification protections during Notman’s absence.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.

Ocular Therapeutix Enters Quiet Period Ahead of SOL-1 Milestone

On December 18, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix announced it will enter a quiet period starting December 20, 2025 as it prepares for database lock of its SOL-1 Phase 3 clinical trial of AXPAXLI (also known as OTX-TKI) for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration. The company said its next investor communication is planned for early February 2026, tied to the release of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, when it also expects to update investors on the timing of SOL-1 trial data, which remains scheduled for the first quarter of 2026, signaling a potentially important near-term clinical and strategic milestone for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.

Ocular Therapeutix Prepares NDA Submission for Wet AMD Drug

Ocular Therapeutix plans to submit a new drug application for its product candidate AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) for wet AMD treatment based on year 1 data from its SOL-1 Phase 3 clinical trial, following recent FDA guidance. The company anticipates reporting top-line data from this trial in the first quarter of 2026, potentially accelerating its regulatory pathway and impacting its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.