Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.14B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.01
• Revenue Growth: -7.26%
• EPS Growth: -15.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 173,995,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,957,216
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,025,173
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 22.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.30
• 1Y Price Target: $17.38
• Price Target Upside: 41.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(1.63% Upside)

The overall stock score of 56 reflects significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses being the most impactful factors. However, positive technical indicators and a promising strategic outlook from the earnings call provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Market Opportunity

Diabetic eye disease represents a significant opportunity for Axpaxli.

Regulatory Progress

FDA alignment under SPA for registrational trial in NPDR provides a clear regulatory path forward.

Trial Progress

The SOL-1 trial is on track to report topline data, indicating strong progress in the ongoing Phase 3 trial.

Negative Factors

Competitive Positioning

Stock is down 4%-7% on the surprise news of the rescue criteria change and confirmation of timelines that put Axpaxli behind Eyepoint's Duravyu in terms of NDA filing.

Investor Concerns

The change in rescue criteria for the SOL-R trial reflects a more stringent measure, causing concern among investors.

Trial Changes

Ocular is changing the rescue criteria in SOL-R to align more closely with real-world practice, which management believes will help facilitate easy adoption in the commercial setting, if approved.

Ocular Therapeutix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. The company has a strategic collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Regeneron) for the development and commercialization of products using the Company's sustained-release hydrogel in combination with Regeneron's large molecule VEGF-targeting compounds for the treatment of retinal diseases; and AffaMed Therapeutics Limited for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC, as well as a discovery collaboration with Mosaic Biosciences to identify new targets and therapeutic agents for the treatment of dry age-related macular degeneration (dMAD). Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocular Therapeutix generates revenue through the sale of its commercialized products, primarily Dextenza, which is marketed directly to healthcare providers and hospitals. The company also explores partnerships and collaboration agreements with other pharmaceutical companies for the development and commercialization of its pipeline products. Additionally, Ocular Therapeutix may receive milestone payments and royalties from partners based on the successful commercialization of its products. The company's revenue model is bolstered by ongoing research and development aimed at expanding its product offerings and entering new markets, as well as its focus on addressing unmet needs in the ocular therapeutics space.

Ocular Therapeutix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ocular Therapeutix is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. While the company maintains a strong gross profit margin, operational inefficiencies and high costs are evident. The balance sheet reflects manageable leverage but poor returns on equity. Cash flow remains a concern, with negative operating and free cash flows. The company needs to focus on improving revenue growth and operational efficiency to enhance its financial health.

Income Statement

Ocular Therapeutix has experienced declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -5.11% TTM, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The company shows strong gross profit margins consistently above 89%, but net profit margins are deeply negative, reflecting significant losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25 TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating profit from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the company needs to improve profitability to enhance financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, although there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that free cash flow is somewhat aligned with net income, despite both being negative.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	56.60M	63.72M	58.44M	51.49M	43.52M	17.40M
Gross Profit	50.60M	58.10M	53.16M	46.95M	39.12M	15.32M
EBITDA	-204.33M	-176.14M	-66.42M	-61.91M	-75.62M	-146.09M
Net Income	-216.75M	-193.51M	-80.74M	-63.42M	-10.80M	-159.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	451.33M	457.94M	252.06M	149.29M	204.89M	261.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	391.13M	392.10M	195.81M	102.30M	164.16M	228.06M
Total Debt	76.94M	75.78M	83.39M	64.28M	58.98M	58.44M
Total Liabilities	145.42M	142.59M	160.93M	113.91M	116.89M	185.77M
Stockholders Equity	305.92M	315.34M	91.13M	35.38M	88.00M	76.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-179.37M	-135.97M	-76.32M	-63.32M	-66.74M	-54.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-175.90M	-134.68M	-70.23M	-59.60M	-65.55M	-53.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.34M	-1.29M	-6.09M	-3.71M	-1.19M	-841.00K
Financing Cash Flow	110.68M	332.11M	169.83M	1.45M	2.85M	228.01M

Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCUL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.20, above the 50-day MA of 10.92, and above the 200-day MA of 8.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OCUL.

Ocular Therapeutix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OCUL	56 Neutral	$2.14B	―	-63.41%	―	-7.26%	-15.33%
TARS	54 Neutral	$2.42B	―	-31.46%	―	254.45%	48.06%
SPRY	52 Neutral	$1.33B	174.05	-23.56%	―	22367.80%	-5.15%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.89B	-0.12	-39.83%	2.16%	21.38%	-1.56%
BLTE	43 Neutral	$2.10B	―	-37.34%	―	―	-26.26%
ETNB	42 Neutral	$1.40B	―	-86.86%	―	―	-82.75%
BEAM	41 Neutral	$1.68B	―	-41.94%	―	-82.90%	-155.64%

Ocular Therapeutix Corporate Events

Ocular Therapeutix Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

On June 11, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key amendments were approved. These included increasing shares under the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan and the 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, as well as updating the company’s Certificate of Incorporation to include officer exculpation. Additionally, the company completed enrollment for its SOL-R Phase 3 clinical trial for AXPAXLI, a treatment for wet AMD, on May 31, 2025, ensuring sufficient subjects for its target randomization.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.