Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.39B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.75
• Revenue Growth: -0.33%
• EPS Growth: -3.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 159,299,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,282,833
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,250,666
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.27
• 1Y Price Target: $17.60
• Price Target Upside: 101.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▼(-2.63%Downside)

Ocular Therapeutix's stock score is primarily driven by financial performance challenges and valuation concerns due to negative profitability. Despite strong revenue growth, high operational losses and reliance on external funding are significant risks. Technical indicators show some positive momentum, but caution is advised due to proximity to long-term moving averages.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

The rapid pace of enrollment denotes enthusiasm among wet AMD patients and healthcare providers for a treatment option with 6- to 12-month dosing.

Market Opportunity

There is a large market opportunity and unmet need for an extended wAMD treatment, which benefits both Axpaxli and Duravyu.

Regulatory Progress

FDA has agreed that SOL-1 and SOL-R together could constitute two complementary and adequate trials to support a potential New Drug Application (NDA) for AXPAXLI in wet AMD.

Negative Factors

Enrollment Risks

There is a risk that the current enrollment does not result in the expected number of patients for randomization.

Financial Performance

Total revenue was $10.7M, representing 27% YoY decline and missing our projection of $16.6M.

Revenue Decline

During the first quarter, Ocular reported net revenue of $10.7 million, reflecting a 27.7% year-over-year decline.

Ocular Therapeutix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. The company has a strategic collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Regeneron) for the development and commercialization of products using the Company's sustained-release hydrogel in combination with Regeneron's large molecule VEGF-targeting compounds for the treatment of retinal diseases; and AffaMed Therapeutics Limited for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC, as well as a discovery collaboration with Mosaic Biosciences to identify new targets and therapeutic agents for the treatment of dry age-related macular degeneration (dMAD). Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocular Therapeutix generates revenue primarily through the sale of its approved product, DEXTENZA, to healthcare providers and facilities. The company also engages in collaborative partnerships and licensing agreements to advance its pipeline products, which can involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Additionally, Ocular Therapeutix may receive funding through research grants and government contracts to support its development activities. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include the successful commercialization of its products, the expansion of its market presence, and the advancement of its research and development pipeline.

Ocular Therapeutix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ocular Therapeutix has shown strong revenue growth and a solid cash position, but faces challenges with high operational losses and negative cash flows. The company needs to improve operational efficiency and achieve profitability to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Ocular Therapeutix has shown a steady increase in revenue over the years, with a notable TTM revenue of approximately $59.58 million from $17.40 million in 2020. However, the company consistently reports negative net income, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is healthy, but both the EBIT and EBITDA margins are significantly negative, reflecting substantial operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a strong cash position, with cash and equivalents exceeding total debt, resulting in negative net debt. Equity has grown significantly to $265.93 million in the TTM, and the company maintains a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio. However, the return on equity remains negative due to ongoing losses, highlighting profitability concerns despite a solid asset base.

Cash Flow

Ocular Therapeutix's cash flow statement shows consistent negative operating cash flow, with significant free cash flow deficits. Although the company has successfully raised financing in the past, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable, indicating reliance on external funding rather than operational efficiency to sustain cash flows.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
59.58M	63.72M	58.44M	51.49M	43.52M	17.40M
	Gross Profit
54.02M	58.10M	53.16M	46.95M	39.12M	15.32M
	EBIT
-204.08M	-171.78M	-82.38M	-78.65M	-78.04M	-62.85M
	EBITDA
-180.18M	-176.14M	-66.42M	-61.91M	-75.62M	-146.09M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-192.71M	-193.51M	-80.74M	-63.42M	-10.80M	-159.63M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
349.68M	392.10M	195.81M	102.30M	164.16M	228.06M
	Total Assets
405.92M	457.94M	252.06M	149.29M	204.89M	261.86M
	Total Debt
76.22M	75.78M	83.39M	64.28M	58.98M	58.44M
	Net Debt
-273.46M	-316.32M	-112.42M	-38.02M	-105.18M	-169.62M
	Total Liabilities
139.99M	142.59M	160.93M	113.91M	116.89M	185.77M
	Stockholders Equity
265.93M	315.34M	91.13M	35.38M	88.00M	76.09M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-148.43M	-135.97M	-76.32M	-63.32M	-66.74M	-54.40M
	Operating Cash Flow
-145.46M	-134.68M	-70.23M	-59.60M	-65.55M	-53.55M
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.97M	-1.29M	-6.09M	-3.71M	-1.19M	-841.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
15.07M	332.11M	169.83M	1.45M	2.85M	228.01M

Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCUL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.09, above the 50-day MA of 7.67, and above the 200-day MA of 8.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OCUL.

Ocular Therapeutix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VRDN	64 Neutral	$1.30B	―	-49.41%	―	4.86%	10.13%
PCRX	59 Neutral	$1.13B	―	-12.27%	―	3.08%	-247.82%
BLFS	56 Neutral	$1.05B	―	-3.29%	―	-23.12%	97.46%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
OPK	52 Neutral	$1.05B	―	-3.04%	―	-13.79%	82.82%
OCUL	49 Neutral	$1.39B	―	-57.19%	―	-0.33%	-3.59%
ETNB	42 Neutral	$1.52B	―	-69.30%	―	―	-68.13%

Ocular Therapeutix Corporate Events

Ocular Therapeutix Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

On June 11, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key amendments were approved. These included increasing shares under the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan and the 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, as well as updating the company’s Certificate of Incorporation to include officer exculpation. Additionally, the company completed enrollment for its SOL-R Phase 3 clinical trial for AXPAXLI, a treatment for wet AMD, on May 31, 2025, ensuring sufficient subjects for its target randomization.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.