Ardelyx (ARDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.61B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 58.12%
• EPS Growth: 24.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 395
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 245,247,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,254,746
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,417,648
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.45
• P/FCF Ratio: -31.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -59.56
• 1Y Price Target: $16.38
• Price Target Upside: 149.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $542.64M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-0.91% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is weighed down primarily by weak financial quality—ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and higher leverage—despite strong revenue growth and high gross margins. Technical signals are also soft (below the 20-day average with negative MACD). Offsetting these are constructive earnings call takeaways, including strong 2026 revenue guidance, improved cash dynamics, and pipeline/IP progress, but higher planned spending and XPHOZAH reimbursement headwinds temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Commercial Revenue Growth

Sustained, high-single-year growth for IBSRELA demonstrates durable commercial adoption and prescriber traction. Management guidance to $410–$430M in 2026 and a $1B target by 2029 shows a scalable revenue base that can underpin larger investments and franchise economics over multiple years.

Very High Gross Margins

Exceptionally high gross margins (~85–92%, ~90% in 2025) indicate strong product economics and large incremental profitability as sales scale. This structural margin advantage for small‑molecule oral therapies supports cash generation potential and resilience versus competitors with higher COGS.

Pipeline Progress and IP Protection

Initiation of a powered Phase III (ACCEL) and a preclinical next‑gen NHE3 program with a targeted IND, combined with an Orange Book‑listed formulation patent to 2042, create durable pipeline optionality and extended formulation exclusivity that can protect revenue and enable long-term franchise extension.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow raises reliance on external financing to fund growth and R&D. Although cash burn improved versus earlier years, FCF deterioration in 2025 and ongoing negative operating cash means self‑funding is not yet consistent and increases financing risk over the medium term.

Rising Leverage

Meaningful buildup in debt to ~$208M and debt/equity near 1.25x materially increases financial leverage. With continued operating losses and negative returns on equity, higher leverage reduces flexibility, raises refinancing and interest risk, and constrains runway if commercial momentum slows.

Reimbursement & Execution Exposure

A policy change that removed Part D reimbursement drove a 36% XPHOZAH revenue decline, highlighting structural sensitivity to payer decisions. The business also depends on specialty pharmacy pull‑through and reimbursement teams; execution or further coverage shifts could durably depress revenues across brands.

Ardelyx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ardelyx, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat gastrointestinal and cardiorenal therapeutic areas in the United States and internationally. The company's lead product candidate is tenapanor, which has completed Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, as well as in Phase III clinical trial to control serum phosphorus in adult patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD)on dialysis, or hyperphosphatemia. It is also developing RDX013, a potassium secretagogue, for the treatment of elevated serum potassium, or hyperkalemia, a problem among certain patients with kidney and/or heart disease; and RDX020, an early-stage program in metabolic acidosis, a serious electrolyte disorder in patients with CKD. The company has agreements with Kyowa Kirin in Japan, Fosun Pharmaceutical Industrial Development Co. Ltd. in China, and Knight Therapeutics, Inc. in Canada for the development and commercialization of tenapanor in their respective territories. The company was formerly known as Nteryx, Inc. and changed its name to Ardelyx, Inc. in June 2008. Ardelyx, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ardelyx generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its pharmaceutical products, including tenapanor, which is marketed for specific indications. The company earns money through direct sales to healthcare providers and pharmacies. Additionally, Ardelyx may also receive milestone payments and royalties from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies that help in the development and distribution of its products. These partnerships can provide significant financial support and facilitate market access for its therapies, contributing to its overall revenue stream.

Ardelyx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue acceleration and very high gross margins are positives, but the company remains loss-making with negative operating profitability, negative free cash flow, and rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.25x in 2025), which increases financing risk.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been exceptionally strong over the last several years (accelerating to 168% in 2024 and 228% in 2025), and gross profitability is very high (gross margin ~85%–92%, reaching ~90% in 2025). The key weakness is that the business is still loss-making: net margins remain negative (about -12% in 2024 to -15% in 2025), and operating profitability is also negative in recent years, indicating the company has not yet converted scale into sustained earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage build as the company scaled: debt rose from ~$56M (2023) to ~$153M (2024) and ~$208M (2025), pushing debt relative to equity up to ~1.25x in 2025 (from ~0.89x in 2024). Equity remains positive (~$167M in 2025), but persistent losses are reflected in negative returns on equity (about -23% in 2024 and -37% in 2025), increasing financial risk if profitability does not improve.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a weak point: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative across all periods shown, including 2025 (operating cash flow about -$42M; free cash flow about -$44M). There is improvement versus earlier years (cash burn was much higher in 2021–2023), but free cash flow deteriorated again in 2025 (free cash flow growth ~-20.5%), suggesting the path to self-funding operations is not yet consistent.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	407.32M	333.62M	124.46M	52.16M	10.10M
Gross Profit	367.78M	283.06M	106.66M	48.04M	9.10M
EBITDA	-29.17M	-16.71M	-55.35M	-60.98M	-150.85M
Net Income	-61.60M	-39.14M	-66.07M	-67.21M	-158.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	501.60M	435.75M	297.58M	190.07M	149.91M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	264.69M	250.10M	184.30M	123.91M	116.69M
Total Debt	211.59M	153.44M	55.98M	36.46M	45.50M
Total Liabilities	334.65M	262.46M	130.76M	91.74M	67.30M
Stockholders Equity	166.95M	173.29M	166.82M	98.33M	82.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-43.98M	-45.82M	-90.06M	-70.10M	-154.42M
Operating Cash Flow	-42.48M	-44.81M	-89.72M	-70.04M	-152.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.96M	-18.32M	-131.25M	18.41M	50.95M
Financing Cash Flow	54.51M	106.59M	146.29M	75.34M	83.00M

Ardelyx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 6.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARDX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.06, below the 50-day MA of 6.76, and above the 200-day MA of 5.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ARDX.

Ardelyx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VCEL	65 Neutral	$1.93B	154.03	4.52%	―	14.05%	241.86%
VRDN	60 Neutral	$2.81B	-8.19	-47.40%	―	23340.07%	18.06%
DNTH	56 Neutral	$2.28B	-14.85	-28.57%	―	-42.64%	-39.78%
PHVS	56 Neutral	$1.79B	-8.59	-51.80%	―	―	-20.08%
EWTX	55 Neutral	$3.27B	-19.10	-30.02%	―	―	-5.73%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ARDX	49 Neutral	$1.61B	―	-36.21%	―	58.12%	24.08%

Ardelyx Corporate Events

Ardelyx Posts Strong 2025 Results, Projects 2026 Growth

On February 19, 2026, Ardelyx reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting a 73% surge in IBSRELA revenue to $274.2 million and total revenue of $407.3 million, alongside $103.6 million from XPHOZAH. Despite higher R&D and SG&A expenses tied to commercialization and pipeline investments, the company ended 2025 with $264.7 million in cash and a net loss of $61.6 million, while projecting strong 2026 revenue growth for both products and outlining plans to expand IBSRELA’s indications and advance a next-generation NHE3 inhibitor, underpinned by new patent protection extending to 2042.

Ardelyx also detailed strategic progress including a Phase 3 ACCEL trial of tenapanor in chronic idiopathic constipation initiated in early 2026, a development program for new NHE3 inhibitor RDX10531, and increased scientific visibility through multiple poster presentations at major nephrology and gastroenterology meetings. The issuance of a new U.S. patent covering the commercial formulations of IBSRELA and XPHOZAH, along with a patient-first strategy that has supported XPHOZAH uptake, strengthens Ardelyx’s competitive position and supports its ambition to grow IBSRELA into a billion-dollar franchise by 2029.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARDX) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardelyx stock, see the ARDX Stock Forecast page.

Ardelyx files procedural regulatory disclosure update notice

Ardelyx issued a brief regulatory filing note stating that information previously provided under Item 2.02 has been formally incorporated by reference into Item 8.01. The disclosure is purely procedural and does not provide new operational, financial, or strategic details for investors or other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARDX) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardelyx stock, see the ARDX Stock Forecast page.

Ardelyx Announces Key Leadership Transitions

Ardelyx, Inc., a company operating in the pharmaceutical or healthcare sector, announced leadership transitions involving two key executives. On December 17, 2025, Elizabeth Grammer, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer, informed the company of her resignation effective December 31, 2025. Following this, she will continue to serve as General Counsel until a successor is appointed and later transition to a Senior Advisor role for two years. Her transition is structured under a detailed agreement that includes salary continuation, bonuses, and other benefits tailored to her role during the advisory period. Additionally, Edward Conner, M.D., Chief Medical Officer, also announced his resignation for personal reasons, effective December 31, 2025. Dr. Laura Williams will temporarily take over as interim Chief Medical Officer, ensuring continuity in the company’s clinical development programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARDX) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ardelyx stock, see the ARDX Stock Forecast page.