Ardelyx (ARDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $947.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: 127.33%
• EPS Growth: 21.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 395
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 43
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 239,255,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,480,946
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,151,000
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -17.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.65
• 1Y Price Target: $11.11
• Price Target Upside: 179.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲( 0.76% Upside)

Ardelyx shows strong revenue growth potential, particularly with its key products, but faces significant profitability and operational challenges. The stock's technical indicators point to a bearish trend, and its valuation metrics, particularly the negative P/E ratio, highlight ongoing financial struggles. While the earnings call was positive on growth prospects, the overall financial health and market conditions temper enthusiasm, leading to a moderate overall stock score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

4Q24 was ARDX's first product-driven profitable quarter, and minimal cash impact from operations is expected through FY25.

Market Opportunity

Ibsrela and Xphozah continue to build momentum in large market opportunities with no second-line competition, supporting a clear path to returned profitability.

Product Launch

Tenapanor (Ibsrela) for the treatment of IBS-C was launched in the U.S. and continues to see favorable uptake.

Negative Factors

Market Uncertainty

Litigation against CMS presents uncertainty, with the outcome and date for oral arguments still pending.

Revenue Forecast

Revenue forecasts for Ibsrela and Xphozah were incrementally lowered to reflect the weaker 1Q performance.

Sales Performance

Ibsrela sales contracted more than expected in 1Q, with reported net sales significantly below consensus estimates.

Ardelyx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ardelyx, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat gastrointestinal and cardiorenal therapeutic areas in the United States and internationally. The company's lead product candidate is tenapanor, which has completed Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, as well as in Phase III clinical trial to control serum phosphorus in adult patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD)on dialysis, or hyperphosphatemia. It is also developing RDX013, a potassium secretagogue, for the treatment of elevated serum potassium, or hyperkalemia, a problem among certain patients with kidney and/or heart disease; and RDX020, an early-stage program in metabolic acidosis, a serious electrolyte disorder in patients with CKD. The company has agreements with Kyowa Kirin in Japan, Fosun Pharmaceutical Industrial Development Co. Ltd. in China, and Knight Therapeutics, Inc. in Canada for the development and commercialization of tenapanor in their respective territories. The company was formerly known as Nteryx, Inc. and changed its name to Ardelyx, Inc. in June 2008. Ardelyx, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ardelyx generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its proprietary product, tenapanor. The company earns money by selling this medication to healthcare providers and pharmacies, which distribute it to patients. Additionally, Ardelyx may engage in licensing agreements and strategic partnerships to expand its product's reach and enhance its market penetration. Such collaborations can include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on sales, contributing to the company's revenue streams. Ardelyx's revenue model is heavily reliant on the successful adoption and market acceptance of tenapanor, as well as its ability to establish and maintain strong partnerships within the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors.

Ardelyx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ardelyx demonstrates strong revenue growth but faces profitability and cash flow challenges. The balance sheet is stable, yet net losses and negative cash flows are concerning. Improvement in operational efficiency is essential.

Income Statement

Ardelyx has shown a strong revenue growth trajectory with substantial increases in total revenue over recent periods. Gross profit margin is healthy, but the company is still facing challenges with profitability as reflected by a negative net profit margin. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational challenges and cost management issues.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach in leveraging financing through debt. However, the return on equity remains negative due to consistent net losses, indicating the need for improved profitability to enhance shareholder returns. The equity ratio suggests a stable capital structure, but overall asset utilization needs improvement for better financial health.

Cash Flow

Despite negative operating cash flows, Ardelyx has managed to maintain adequate liquidity through financing activities. However, the free cash flow remains negative, indicating challenges in generating surplus cash from operations. The ratios of operating and free cash flow to net income are unfavorable, highlighting persistent cash flow management difficulties.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
361.71M	333.62M	124.46M	52.16M	10.10M	7.57M
	Gross Profit
307.75M	283.06M	106.66M	48.04M	9.10M	7.43M
	EBIT
-39.62M	-27.95M	-63.28M	-63.76M	-154.35M	-90.78M
	EBITDA
-31.16M	-16.71M	-55.35M	-60.98M	-150.85M	-85.24M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-53.76M	-39.14M	-66.07M	-67.21M	-158.16M	-94.31M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
202.58M	250.10M	184.30M	123.91M	116.69M	186.48M
	Total Assets
342.38M	435.75M	297.58M	190.07M	149.91M	201.56M
	Total Debt
104.93M	153.44M	55.98M	36.46M	45.50M	53.32M
	Net Debt
68.78M	88.51M	34.51M	-59.68M	-26.92M	-37.71M
	Total Liabilities
191.49M	262.46M	130.76M	91.74M	67.30M	75.45M
	Stockholders Equity
150.89M	173.29M	166.82M	98.33M	82.62M	126.11M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-48.73M	-45.82M	-90.06M	-70.10M	-154.42M	-81.76M
	Operating Cash Flow
-47.54M	-44.81M	-89.72M	-70.04M	-152.55M	-81.44M
	Investing Cash Flow
-12.89M	-18.32M	-131.25M	18.41M	50.95M	-31.44M
	Financing Cash Flow
55.10M	106.59M	146.29M	75.34M	83.00M	22.78M

Ardelyx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.17, below the 50-day MA of 4.61, and below the 200-day MA of 5.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARDX.

Ardelyx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MDXG	76 Outperform	$992.56M	24.92	22.29%	―	5.34%	-50.52%
AUPH	74 Outperform	$1.12B	29.94	11.23%	―	29.20%	―
ARDX	57 Neutral	$947.45M	―	-36.26%	―	127.33%	21.31%
CLDX	54 Neutral	$1.36B	―	-23.20%	―	24.49%	5.14%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.06	-43.57%	2.81%	16.81%	-0.12%
LQDA	51 Neutral	$1.33B	―	-188.03%	―	-11.42%	0.26%
OCUL	47 Neutral	$1.15B	―	-57.19%	―	-0.33%	-3.59%

Ardelyx Corporate Events

Ardelyx Appoints Dr. Merdad Parsey to Board

On April 28, 2025, Ardelyx, Inc. appointed Dr. Merdad Parsey to its Board of Directors as a Class I director, with his term extending until the 2027 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Dr. Parsey, deemed independent by Nasdaq standards, will also join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee starting June 18, 2025. His compensation includes stock options, restricted stock units, and annual cash retainers, aligning with the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Program.