Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 444.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 110.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 14.05%
• EPS Growth: 241.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 50,763,317
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 528,172
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 444,736
• PEG Ratio: 1.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 57.50
• 1Y Price Target: $57.40
• Price Target Upside: 70.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $325.15M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(18.66% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (growth, profitability, high margins) and a constructive earnings outlook with strong cash and clear 2026 targets. These positives are tempered by a premium valuation (very high P/E) and mostly neutral technical setup with limited momentum signals.

Positive Factors

MACI Franchise Momentum

Sustained multi-year MACI growth and a large treated patient base create durable revenue visibility and adoption advantages. High surgeon training and repeated procedure flow reduce sales volatility, support predictable implant volumes, and establish MACI as a structurally entrenched franchise within sports medicine.

High and Expanding Margins

Exceptionally strong gross margins reflect product mix, manufacturing leverage, and pricing power for autologous therapies. Durable margin structure supports cash generation and reinvestment into commercial expansion and trials, making profitability less sensitive to near-term volume swings.

Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Generation

A robust cash balance and positive operating cash flow provide runway to fund manufacturing scale-up, the MACI Ankle trial, and sales expansion without near-term financing. Low leverage reduces financial risk and preserves strategic optionality for regulatory or commercial initiatives.

Negative Factors

Product Concentration Risk

MACI represents the vast majority of revenue, leaving the company exposed to reimbursement shifts, competitive entrants, or procedural volume changes. High concentration magnifies downside if adoption or pricing trends reverse, limiting diversification benefits until other franchises scale materially.

Execution Risk from Sales Expansion

A sizable sales-force expansion increases recurring SG&A (~$10M annualized) and depends on multi-quarter rep ramp and surgeon training. If productivity lags, operating leverage will compress margins and slow expected volume gains, making near-term cash conversion and guided growth outcomes contingent on execution.

BARDA/NexoBrid Timing Uncertainty

Material upside from NexoBrid/BARDA stockpiling is possible but depends on government funding and timing outside company control. Reliance on an uncertain public procurement event creates binary revenue risk and makes future burn-care contribution to durable growth unpredictable until awards are secured.

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Vericel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its proprietary cell therapy products, MACI and Epicel. The company has a direct sales force that markets these products to hospitals and specialty healthcare providers, which allows it to retain a larger share of the revenue. Additionally, Vericel may benefit from partnerships with healthcare organizations and research institutions that can help in the development and commercialization of new therapies. The company's revenue model is also supported by the growing acceptance of regenerative medicine and the increasing number of surgical procedures that utilize its products. Furthermore, ongoing research and development efforts may lead to new product offerings, which could enhance future revenue streams.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and sustained profitability with high gross margins (~74% TTM) and improving net margin, supported by a strengthening equity base and moderate leverage. The key drawback is uneven free-cash-flow consistency (negative in 2024, rebound in TTM but with declining YoY FCF growth).

Income Statement

VCEL shows a clear multi-year improvement in profitability with a return to sustained positive earnings. Revenue has grown from $124.2M (2020) to $237.2M (2024) and $276.3M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), while gross margin has remained strong and improved to ~73.8% in TTM. Net margin is positive and improving (about 5.1% in TTM vs. 4.4% in 2024), but operating profitability is still relatively modest (EBIT margin ~5.4% in TTM), suggesting the model is profitable but not yet highly scaled.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks supportive of growth with equity building meaningfully over time ($134.3M in 2020 to $292.0M in 2024 and $354.6M in TTM) and leverage remaining moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.30 in TTM, improved from ~0.39 in 2023). Returns on equity have turned positive but remain low (~4.3% in TTM), indicating improving quality of earnings but still limited efficiency versus more mature peers. Overall financial risk appears manageable given the debt load relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally solid with positive operating cash flow across the period and $51.9M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, free cash flow has been more volatile, including negative free cash flow in 2024 (-$5.8M) followed by a rebound to $35.1M in TTM, but still showing a year-over-year decline in TTM free cash flow growth (-17.9%). Cash conversion is decent in TTM (free cash flow at ~72% of net income), yet the variability in free cash flow reduces confidence in consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	276.26M	237.22M	197.52M	164.37M	156.18M
Gross Profit	205.60M	172.11M	135.58M	109.79M	106.03M
EBITDA	30.29M	16.63M	2.86M	-11.64M	-4.61M
Net Income	16.52M	10.36M	-3.18M	-16.71M	-7.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	487.97M	432.72M	353.66M	273.00M	243.71M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	137.50M	116.21M	109.56M	119.54M	103.40M
Total Debt	98.27M	98.85M	88.04M	47.57M	50.18M
Total Liabilities	133.33M	140.75M	127.70M	80.73M	73.24M
Stockholders Equity	354.64M	291.97M	225.95M	192.27M	170.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.75M	-5.81M	7.80M	10.09M	21.13M
Operating Cash Flow	51.91M	58.16M	35.31M	17.69M	29.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-43.94M	-79.03M	-3.13M	-36.21M	-3.50M
Financing Cash Flow	7.07M	19.05M	3.62M	1.04M	9.17M

Vericel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 33.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.08, below the 50-day MA of 36.87, and below the 200-day MA of 37.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BCRX	70 Outperform	$2.13B	6.20	―	―	45.38%	92.85%
AUPH	70 Outperform	$1.96B	7.46	59.91%	―	20.62%	―
VCEL	66 Neutral	$1.73B	110.29	5.11%	―	14.05%	241.86%
EWTX	61 Neutral	$3.05B	-12.72	-34.19%	―	―	-5.73%
CLDX	56 Neutral	$1.95B	-6.98	-40.62%	―	-73.94%	-31.70%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ARDX	49 Neutral	$1.54B	-22.81	-36.21%	―	58.12%	24.08%

Vericel Corporate Events

Vericel Issues Strong Preliminary 2025 Financial Results

On January 13, 2026, Vericel reported preliminary, unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, expecting total 2025 net revenue of about $276 million, including $239.5 million from MACI and $36.5 million from its burn care portfolio. The company anticipates a 74% gross margin, a 26% adjusted EBITDA margin, GAAP net income profitability for a second consecutive year, and a cash and investments balance of $200 million with no debt, driven by 23% fourth-quarter revenue growth and at least 20% annual MACI revenue growth for the third straight year. Operationally, Vericel reported record quarterly volumes in MACI implants and biopsies, a completed MACI sales force expansion, more than 900 MACI Arthro-trained surgeons by year-end 2025, the initiation of the MACI Ankle MASCOT clinical study, and continued progress toward starting MACI commercial manufacturing at a new facility in 2026, underscoring its strengthening position in cell-based sports medicine therapies and capacity expansion to support future demand. These results remain subject to completion of internal controls, review and audit procedures and may change once final financial statements are issued.

The most recent analyst rating on (VCEL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vericel stock, see the VCEL Stock Forecast page.