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UWM Holding
(NYSE:UWMC)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(9.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet and cash-flow risk (extreme leverage and recent negative operating/free cash flow), reinforced by weak technical momentum with the stock trading below major moving averages. These are partially offset by a low P/E valuation and an earnings-call narrative focused on materially improved capitalization and steadier operating profitability, though dividend suspension and warrant dilution remain notable overhangs.
Positive Factors
Large origination scale & broker channel
UWM’s wholesale broker-focused model and claimed capacity ($250–300B) give it durable distribution reach and scale advantages. Capturing ~12–13% of refinances while owning only ~2–3% servicing shows strong origination relationships and channel competitiveness that support long-term volume resilience.
Negative Factors
Extreme leverage on balance sheet
Very high debt-to-equity historically leaves UWM highly sensitive to margin compressions, rate moves or asset write-downs. A tiny equity base amplifies shocks, constrains strategic optionality, and increases the risk that operational swings could erode capital, necessitating external funding or asset sales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large origination scale & broker channel
UWM’s wholesale broker-focused model and claimed capacity ($250–300B) give it durable distribution reach and scale advantages. Capturing ~12–13% of refinances while owning only ~2–3% servicing shows strong origination relationships and channel competitiveness that support long-term volume resilience.
Read all positive factors
UWM Holding (UWMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.91B
Dividend Yield21.98%
Average Volume (3M)21.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth37.10%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees9,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding339,225,520
10 Day Avg. Volume15,074,743
30 Day Avg. Volume20,997,472
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-0.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.97Price Target Upside62.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.82B
UWM Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UWM Holdings Corporation is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the provision of residential mortgage financing. The company originates home loans predominantly through a wholesale distribution model, with its offerings primarily consisting of...
How the Company Makes Money
UWM primarily makes money by originating and selling residential mortgage loans and earning fees tied to loan production in the wholesale channel. Its key revenue drivers generally include: (1) Gain on sale / loan sale margins: After a loan is ori...
UWM Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strengthened balance sheet, a large strategic capital infusion with Oaktree, and consistent operating profitability (adjusted EBITDA $160M–$200M and ~$40B originations), all framed as positioning UWM for long-term growth. Management acknowledged near-term negatives — a one-time hedge loss, higher servicing costs during the transition, the failed Two Harbors deal and potential warrant dilution — but presented these as transactional or temporary impacts offset by the capital raise, fortified equity (~$3B), and improved debt ratios (nonfunding debt-to-equity down to ~1.2x). Overall, management’s tone was optimistic about long-term prospects and viewed the negatives as manageable or one-time events.Positive Updates
Consistent Adjusted EBITDA and Quarterly Originations
Management reported adjusted EBITDA of roughly $160M–$200M consistently and noted operating income/adjusted EBITDA 'over $180M' in the second quarter. Originations were about $40B in the quarter (down from $45B the prior quarter, ~11% sequential decline), demonstrating a large, functioning origination engine.
Negative Updates
Dividend Suspension
Management announced a pause/suspension of the regular dividend to prioritize retaining equity and bolstering liquidity following the capital transaction. They left open the possibility of special or resumed dividends in the future.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Adjusted EBITDA and Quarterly Originations
Management reported adjusted EBITDA of roughly $160M–$200M consistently and noted operating income/adjusted EBITDA 'over $180M' in the second quarter. Originations were about $40B in the quarter (down from $45B the prior quarter, ~11% sequential decline), demonstrating a large, functioning origination engine.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that following the $2B+ capital raise (Oaktree ~ $1.5B and Mathew Ishbia ~ $500–550M) UWM’s total equity should rise from roughly $1B to over $3B and the non‑funding debt‑to‑equity ratio has fallen from ~5.6x (post hedge loss) to ~1.2x (well below industry norms of ~1.5–2x); they have suspended the regular dividend to retain liquidity and will reevaluate each quarter. They noted interest savings of roughly $100M from paying down MSR lines versus paying about $165M on the new preferred at a ~10% coupon, and emphasized the structure includes 330M warrants (165M exercisable at $2, 165M at $6; average ~$4). Operational guidance reiterated steady adjusted EBITDA of roughly $160–200M per quarter (management cited >$180M operating income and $400–500M annual operating results), originations of ~$40B in Q2 (≈$45B prior quarter) with capacity to handle $250–300B, and servicing exposure of ~2–3% of the servicing market while capturing ~12–13% of refinances; the recent hedge loss was described as a one‑time, transaction‑specific event and hedging policies will be tightened.UWM Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.21B | 3.16B | 1.91B | 1.11B | 2.15B | 2.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.73B | 2.71B | 1.37B | 755.02M | 1.81B | 2.48B |
| EBITDA | 736.67M | 831.73M | 384.73M | -26.23M | 984.07M | 1.62B |
| Net Income | -37.14M | 27.38M | 14.40M | -13.23M | 41.72M | 98.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.94B | 16.93B | 15.67B | 11.87B | 13.60B | 22.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 498.41M | 503.36M | 507.34M | 497.47M | 704.90M | 731.09M |
| Total Debt | 14.65B | 14.44B | 12.84B | 8.73B | 9.78B | 18.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.96B | 15.34B | 13.62B | 9.40B | 10.43B | 19.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 133.71M | 199.52M | 161.52M | 112.55M | 143.56M | 142.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.26B | -2.72B | -6.28B | 138.81M | 8.24B | -10.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -5.21B | -2.65B | -6.24B | 165.24M | 8.27B | -9.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.23B | 2.26B | 2.68B | 1.83B | 1.29B | 199.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.94B | 384.02M | 3.58B | -2.20B | -9.58B | 9.26B |
UWM Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
1.83
Price Trends
2.13
Negative
2.74
Negative
3.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
27.40
Positive
28.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UWMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.84, below the 50-day MA of 2.13, and below the 200-day MA of 3.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.40 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UWMC.
UWM Holding Risk Analysis
UWM Holding disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UWM Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UWM Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $688.54M | 6.20 | 15.76% | ― | 38.14% | 34.02% | |
59 Neutral | $3.92B | 9.97 | 9.14% | 1.42% | 29.40% | 0.67% | |
51 Neutral | $36.50B | 198.77 | 1.53% | ― | 73.75% | 269.75% | |
47 Neutral | $2.91B | 6.83 | 33.91% | 21.86% | 37.10% | ― | |
44 Neutral | $331.47M | -2.82 | -26.91% | ― | 14.29% | 21.88% | |
43 Neutral | $443.44M | -2.00 | -428.29% | ― | 50.09% | 13.27% |
* Financial Sector Average
UWMC
UWM Holding
1.28
-2.78
-68.44%
PFSI
PennyMac Financial
77.41
-19.53
-20.15%
LDI
loanDepot
0.95
-0.78
-45.03%
VEL
Velocity Financial
18.46
0.88
5.01%
RKT
Rocket Companies
13.72
-3.09
-18.38%
BETR
Better Home & Finance
15.46
2.44
18.74%
UWM Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
UWM Holding Secures Major Preferred Equity Investment
Negative
Aug 6, 2026
On August 5, 2026, UWM Holdings closed a $1.65 billion financing through the issuance of Series A-1 and A-2 preferred stock and long-dated warrants to affiliates of Oaktree Capital Management and Ishbia family entities, as part of a broader $2.05 ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
UWM Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
At its June 3, 2026 annual meeting, UWM Holdings Corporation shareholders elected four directors, including Stacey Coopes, Jeffrey A. Ishbia, Laura Lawson and Isiah Thomas, with each receiving strong support despite varying levels of withheld vote...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Challenges Two Harbors Board Over Rejected Offer
Negative
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, UWMC publicly criticized the board of Two Harbors Investment Corp. for rejecting its May 11 proposal to acquire Two Harbors for $12.50 per share in cash or UWMC stock, in favor of a lower-value merger with CrossCountry Mortgage. U...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Challenges Two Harbors–CrossCountry Merger After ISS Pushback
Negative
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, UWM Holdings announced that proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services recommended that stockholders of Two Harbors Investment Corp. vote against the proposed merger with CrossCountry Mortgage at a special meeting sche...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Submits Revised All-Cash or Stock Bid
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, UWM Holdings said it will submit a revised bid to acquire all shares of Two Harbors Investment Corp., offering either $12.50 in cash per share or 2.3328 shares of UWMC stock, a package it argues delivers superior value to Two Harb...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
UWM Holding Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Performance
Positive
May 6, 2026
UWM Holdings Corporation reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, posting loan origination volume of $44.9 billion, up 39% year over year and the company’s second-highest first-quarter production. Revenue rose to $901.4 million an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.