Uwm Holdings Corporation (UWMC)
NYSE:UWMC
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UWM Holding
(NYSE:UWMC)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-48.98% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/23/26
The score is held back primarily by financial risk (extreme leverage and multi-year negative operating/free cash flow) and weak technicals (downtrend with very low RSI and negative MACD). These are partly offset by supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook driven by strong volume growth and resilient gain-on-sale margins.
Positive Factors
Strong origination volume growth
Sustained, sizable origination growth in the wholesale channel demonstrates durable distribution strength and product-market fit with brokers. Higher, recurring volume supports fee income, scale economies in operations, and the ability to monetize MSRs and gain-on-sale margins over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage
Very high debt-to-equity materially limits financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk: asset or margin shocks can rapidly impair equity, borrowing costs may spike, and covenant or refinancing stress becomes more likely, constraining strategic actions over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong origination volume growth
Sustained, sizable origination growth in the wholesale channel demonstrates durable distribution strength and product-market fit with brokers. Higher, recurring volume supports fee income, scale economies in operations, and the ability to monetize MSRs and gain-on-sale margins over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
UWM Holding (UWMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.28B
Dividend Yield8.64%
Average Volume (3M)23.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth37.10%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees9,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding339,225,520
10 Day Avg. Volume30,269,112
30 Day Avg. Volume23,062,725
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-0.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside14.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.34B
UWM Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UWM Holdings Corporation is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the provision of residential mortgage financing. The company originates home loans predominantly through a wholesale distribution model, with its offerings primarily consisting of...
How the Company Makes Money
UWM primarily makes money by originating and selling residential mortgage loans and earning fees tied to loan production in the wholesale channel. Its key revenue drivers generally include: (1) Gain on sale / loan sale margins: After a loan is ori...
UWM Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and strategic outlook: strong quarterly volume (+~41% YoY), robust gain‑on‑sale margins (~123 bps), successful in‑house servicing transition efforts, rapid AI deployment (Mia) driving substantial closings and refis, a live BILT partnership, and productive VantageScore rollout. Management also highlighted expense stabilization and an ambitious five‑year $1.3 trillion originations target. Notable risks discussed include market rate volatility and competition, near‑term leverage/ratio fluctuations tied to MSR trades, uncertainty around the Two Harbors transaction, and potential consumer impacts from the trigger lead rule. Overall, the positives (strong growth, margin performance, technology/partnership wins, and clear multi‑year plan) materially outweigh the operational and execution risks noted.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Volume and YoY Growth
Q1 originations were about $45 billion versus $32 billion in prior-year Q1, representing roughly a +41% year‑over‑year increase. Management noted Q1 is typically the slowest quarter, making the outperformance notable.
Negative Updates
Competitive Landscape and Rate Volatility
Management described the market as very competitive with heightened rate volatility (10‑year rose to ~3.95% in March). Volatility favors purchase activity over refis and requires frequent intra‑day rate sheet adjustments, which can pressure execution and margins.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Volume and YoY Growth
Q1 originations were about $45 billion versus $32 billion in prior-year Q1, representing roughly a +41% year‑over‑year increase. Management noted Q1 is typically the slowest quarter, making the outperformance notable.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that it will bring all servicing in‑house this year (currently with fewer than 100,000 loans live on the new platform and moving the remainder of ~700,000 consumers onto it), reported Q1 gain‑on‑sale margins near prior strong levels (about 122–123 bps in Q4/Q1) and year‑over‑year volume growth (Q1 volume ~ $45B vs. $32B a year ago), and reiterated a five‑year ambition of doing over $1.3 trillion of mortgages (with a potential peak year near $400B and a low year $150–$200B) while keeping quarterly expenses roughly flat at about $590–600M and growing “other” revenue by ~20–25%; other metrics included Mia producing roughly 80k–100k closings over the last year with a ~40% call pick‑up (≈16k of 40k calls on a high‑volume day) driving 12–13% of refinances despite only 2–3% of the servicing book, ~12.0–12.5k brokers (only ~400–500 not “all‑in”), a pro‑channel market share ~44.7–44.8%, current broker channel share ~28% (from ~14–15% in early 2020) with a 50.1% broker goal, BILT partnership access to >6M consumers (8–10% of whom buy homes annually), rapid VantageScore rollout (live within days, ~20‑point comparability haircut to FICO), and an early view that the March 4 trigger‑lead rule reduced the typical consumer outreach from ~50 lenders to ~3–4, which may modestly support margins.UWM Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.10B | 3.16B | 1.91B | 1.11B | 2.15B | 2.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.56B | 2.71B | 1.37B | 755.02M | 1.81B | 2.48B |
| EBITDA | 1.03B | 831.73M | 384.73M | -26.23M | 984.07M | 1.62B |
| Net Income | 66.36M | 27.38M | 14.40M | -13.23M | 41.72M | 98.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.27B | 16.93B | 15.67B | 11.87B | 13.60B | 22.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 424.00M | 503.36M | 507.34M | 497.47M | 704.90M | 731.09M |
| Total Debt | 16.22B | 14.44B | 12.84B | 8.73B | 9.78B | 18.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.67B | 15.34B | 13.62B | 9.40B | 10.43B | 19.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 229.52M | 199.52M | 161.52M | 112.55M | 143.56M | 142.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.55B | -2.72B | -6.28B | 138.81M | 8.24B | -10.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -5.47B | -2.65B | -6.24B | 165.24M | 8.27B | -9.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.86B | 2.26B | 2.68B | 1.83B | 1.29B | 199.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.58B | 384.02M | 3.58B | -2.20B | -9.58B | 9.26B |
UWM Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
3.92
Price Trends
2.98
Negative
3.46
Negative
4.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
19.86
Positive
7.04
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UWMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.50, above the 50-day MA of 2.98, and below the 200-day MA of 4.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.86 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UWMC.
UWM Holding Risk Analysis
UWM Holding disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UWM Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UWM Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $4.14B | 8.20 | 12.02% | 0.90% | 24.55% | 43.82% | |
54 Neutral | $3.28B | 7.62 | 33.91% | 8.64% | 37.10% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $37.74B | 207.55 | 1.53% | ― | 73.75% | 269.75% | |
42 Neutral | $374.98M | -3.28 | -32.25% | ― | 14.29% | 21.88% |
* Financial Sector Average
UWMC
UWM Holding
2.03
-1.69
-45.36%
PFSI
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80.24
-16.14
-16.74%
LDI
loanDepot
1.14
-0.16
-12.31%
RKT
Rocket Companies
13.47
-0.86
-6.00%
UWM Holding Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
UWM Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
At its June 3, 2026 annual meeting, UWM Holdings Corporation shareholders elected four directors, including Stacey Coopes, Jeffrey A. Ishbia, Laura Lawson and Isiah Thomas, with each receiving strong support despite varying levels of withheld vote...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Challenges Two Harbors Board Over Rejected Offer
Negative
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, UWMC publicly criticized the board of Two Harbors Investment Corp. for rejecting its May 11 proposal to acquire Two Harbors for $12.50 per share in cash or UWMC stock, in favor of a lower-value merger with CrossCountry Mortgage. U...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Challenges Two Harbors–CrossCountry Merger After ISS Pushback
Negative
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, UWM Holdings announced that proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services recommended that stockholders of Two Harbors Investment Corp. vote against the proposed merger with CrossCountry Mortgage at a special meeting sche...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Submits Revised All-Cash or Stock Bid
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, UWM Holdings said it will submit a revised bid to acquire all shares of Two Harbors Investment Corp., offering either $12.50 in cash per share or 2.3328 shares of UWMC stock, a package it argues delivers superior value to Two Harb...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
UWM Holding Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Performance
Positive
May 6, 2026
UWM Holdings Corporation reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, posting loan origination volume of $44.9 billion, up 39% year over year and the company’s second-highest first-quarter production. Revenue rose to $901.4 million an...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
UWM Holding Challenges Two Harbors Board Over Rejected Bid
Negative
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, UWM Holdings sharply criticized Two Harbors Investment Corp.’s board for rejecting its $12.00-per-share acquisition proposal in favor of an $11.30-per-share cash deal with CrossCountry Mortgage. UWM argued that its fully fina...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Revises Bid to Acquire Two Harbors
Positive
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, UWM Holdings issued an open letter to stockholders of Two Harbors Investment Corp. detailing a revised proposal to acquire the company, allowing Two Harbors investors to elect for each share either $12 in cash or 2.3328 shares o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.