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UWM Holding (UWMC)
NYSE:UWMC
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UWM Holding (UWMC) AI Stock Analysis

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UWMC

UWM Holding

(NYSE:UWMC)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(8.70% Upside)
UWM Holding's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including high leverage and cash flow constraints. Despite strong technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum, the valuation is hampered by a negative P/E ratio. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, driven by strong production volumes and technological advancements, provides some optimism but is not enough to offset the financial weaknesses.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a strong market position and the ability to expand its customer base, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Technological Advancements
AI integration enhances operational efficiency and broker support, positioning UWM as a leader in mortgage technology and improving competitive advantage.
Production Volume
Record production volumes reflect strong demand and effective market strategies, bolstering UWM's market leadership and revenue potential.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Significant leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.
Cash Flow Constraints
Cash flow challenges can hinder operational capabilities and strategic investments, affecting the company's ability to sustain growth and manage debt.
Decline in MSR Portfolio Value
A decline in MSR portfolio value reduces asset strength and could impact future revenue from servicing, affecting financial performance.

UWM Holding (UWMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

UWM Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUWM Holdings Corporation engages in the residential mortgage lending business in the United States. The company originates mortgage loans through wholesale channel. It originates primarily conforming and government loans. UWM Holdings Corporation was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Pontiac, Michigan.
How the Company Makes MoneyUWM Holding generates revenue primarily through the origination and sale of mortgage loans. The company earns money by charging origination fees, which are typically a percentage of the loan amount, and by selling mortgages to investors in the secondary market, often at a premium. Additionally, UWMC benefits from interest income on loans held in its portfolio before they are sold. The company's revenue model is significantly bolstered by its relationships with thousands of independent mortgage brokers, who rely on UWMC for competitive pricing and efficient service. Strategic partnerships with investors and technology providers also enhance its operational efficiency and revenue potential.

UWM Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong production volumes, significant technological advancements with AI integration, and robust financial performance. However, there were concerns regarding potential declines in future production guidance and a decrease in MSR portfolio value, though these were overshadowed by overall positive achievements and strategic growth initiatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Volume
Closed $39.7 billion of production, marking the best quarter since 2021 and nearly 20% higher than last year's second quarter.
Significant Refinancing Volume
Achieved $12.4 billion in refinancing volume, doubling last year's second quarter and representing about 11% of the industry volume.
AI Technology Integration
Integrated AI-based systems like BOLT, ChatUWM, LEO, and Mia, enhancing efficiency and broker support.
Strong Financial Metrics
Reported net income of $314.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $195.7 million. Gain on sale margin increased to 113 basis points.
Strategic Investments and Growth
Continued investments in technology, people, and processes, with a focus on scalability and preparing for market opportunities.
Negative Updates
Decline in Market Guidance
Third quarter production guidance of $33 billion to $40 billion implies a potential decline compared to previous quarters.
MSR Portfolio Value Decline
Reported a $111 million decline in the fair value of MSRs due to market conditions.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, UWM Holdings Corporation reported strong financial performance and provided optimistic guidance for the future. The company achieved a production volume of $39.7 billion, marking its best quarter since 2021 and a nearly 20% increase from the previous year's second quarter. This included $12.4 billion in refinance volume and $27.3 billion in purchase originations. UWM reported a net income of $314.5 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $195.7 million, despite a $111 million decline in the fair value of its Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs). The gain on sale margin improved to 113 basis points, and the company's MSR portfolio reached $3.4 billion. For the third quarter, UWM projected production between $33 billion and $40 billion and raised its gain margin guidance to 100-125 basis points, reflecting confidence in market conditions and its strategic positioning. The company also highlighted the successful implementation of AI technologies, such as its AI-based underwriting system BOLT, and digital tools like ChatUWM and Mia, which are enhancing operational efficiency and broker-client engagement. UWM's strategic investments in technology and in-house servicing aim to drive future growth and maintain its leadership in the mortgage industry.

UWM Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UWM Holding faces significant financial challenges, particularly with high leverage and cash flow constraints. While revenue growth is positive, profitability and cash flow metrics indicate underlying operational and financial pressures. The company needs to address its debt levels and improve cash flow generation to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
UWM Holding's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 21.65%, but the net profit margin is low at 0.63%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. The gross profit margin remains strong at 69.37%, suggesting efficient cost management. However, declining EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight pressure on operating profitability.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reveals significant leverage with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.43 in the TTM period, indicating potential financial risk. The return on equity is low at 2.16%, suggesting limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is weak, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period, with a concerning free cash flow growth rate of -29.73%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive, but overall cash flow management appears strained.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.88B1.91B1.11B2.15B2.83B4.85B
Gross Profit1.31B1.37B755.02M1.81B2.48B4.65B
EBITDA194.17M384.73M-26.23M984.07M1.62B3.96B
Net Income11.85M14.40M-13.23M41.72M98.44M3.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.89B15.67B11.87B13.60B22.53B11.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments489.98M507.34M497.47M704.90M731.09M1.22B
Total Debt11.24B12.84B8.73B9.43B18.79B8.21B
Total Liabilities12.14B13.62B9.40B10.43B19.36B9.12B
Stockholders Equity176.17M161.52M112.55M143.56M142.40M2.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.46B-6.28B138.81M8.24B-10.02B-876.00K
Operating Cash Flow-2.39B-6.24B165.24M8.27B-9.96B56.41M
Investing Cash Flow1.89B2.68B1.83B1.29B199.75M231.88M
Financing Cash Flow314.85M3.58B-2.20B-9.58B9.26B802.26M

UWM Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.44
Price Trends
50DMA
5.31
Positive
100DMA
4.69
Positive
200DMA
5.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.34
Positive
RSI
62.58
Neutral
STOCH
31.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UWMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.24, above the 50-day MA of 5.31, and above the 200-day MA of 5.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UWMC.

UWM Holding Risk Analysis

UWM Holding disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UWM Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

UWM Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
13.61B24.3211.18%2.27%-17.46%
64
Neutral
6.38B17.078.13%0.97%20.77%96.22%
61
Neutral
41.23B-402.26>-0.01%21.52%-103.65%
58
Neutral
1.08B-9.64-15.29%6.60%44.77%
58
Neutral
1.24B51.132.12%34.62%-7.94%
53
Neutral
$10.11B37.748.18%6.21%12.27%-21.43%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UWMC
UWM Holding
6.44
-1.33
-17.12%
PFSI
PennyMac Financial
123.32
12.40
11.18%
COOP
Mr Cooper Group
212.68
122.80
136.63%
LDI
loanDepot
3.26
0.47
16.85%
RKT
Rocket Companies
19.59
1.78
9.99%
GHLD
Guild Holdings
19.94
3.78
23.39%

UWM Holding Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UWM Holding Sells $1 Billion in Senior Notes
Positive
Sep 10, 2025

On September 9, 2025, UWM Holdings Corporation announced that its subsidiary, UWM Holdings, LLC, entered into a Purchase Agreement to sell $1.0 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2031, guaranteed by United Wholesale Mortgage, LLC. The proceeds are intended to repay existing senior notes and reduce outstanding amounts under MSR Facilities. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen UWM Holdings’ financial position and support its operational goals, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a robust market presence and enhancing stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (UWMC) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UWM Holding stock, see the UWMC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 16, 2025