Uwm Holdings Corporation (UWMC)
NYSE:UWMC
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UWM Holding
(NYSE:UWMC)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-23.47% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held back primarily by high financial risk (extreme leverage and persistently negative recent operating/free cash flow) and weak technical trend signals. These are partially offset by a favorable valuation profile (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a positive, growth- and execution-focused earnings call featuring strong volume and margin performance.
Positive Factors
Broker-channel leadership & scale
Sustained #1 wholesale originator status and ~45% pro-channel share reflect durable distribution advantages. Scale in the broker network supports consistent loan flow, better pricing/underwriting leverage and faster product rollout, enabling volume growth without proportional cost increases.
Negative Factors
Extreme leverage and weak equity base
Very high debt-to-equity magnifies downside risk: small equity cushions mean asset mark‑to‑market moves or MSR valuation shifts can sharply deteriorate capital ratios, constrain strategic flexibility, and increase refinancing and covenant vulnerability during market stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broker-channel leadership & scale
Sustained #1 wholesale originator status and ~45% pro-channel share reflect durable distribution advantages. Scale in the broker network supports consistent loan flow, better pricing/underwriting leverage and faster product rollout, enabling volume growth without proportional cost increases.
Read all positive factors
UWM Holding (UWMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.98B
Dividend Yield8.64%
Average Volume (3M)16.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth37.10%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees9,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding339,225,520
10 Day Avg. Volume19,409,759
30 Day Avg. Volume16,662,296
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-0.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.51Price Target Upside40.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.16B
UWM Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UWM Holdings Corporation engages in the residential mortgage lending business in the United States. The company originates mortgage loans through wholesale channel. It originates primarily conforming and government loans. UWM Holdings Corporation ...
How the Company Makes Money
UWMC makes money primarily through mortgage banking activities tied to the origination and sale of residential mortgage loans.
Key revenue streams and how they work:
1) Gain on sale of loans / loan production income: UWMC originates (or purchases...
UWM Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and strategic outlook: strong quarterly volume (+~41% YoY), robust gain‑on‑sale margins (~123 bps), successful in‑house servicing transition efforts, rapid AI deployment (Mia) driving substantial closings and refis, a live BILT partnership, and productive VantageScore rollout. Management also highlighted expense stabilization and an ambitious five‑year $1.3 trillion originations target. Notable risks discussed include market rate volatility and competition, near‑term leverage/ratio fluctuations tied to MSR trades, uncertainty around the Two Harbors transaction, and potential consumer impacts from the trigger lead rule. Overall, the positives (strong growth, margin performance, technology/partnership wins, and clear multi‑year plan) materially outweigh the operational and execution risks noted.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Volume and YoY Growth
Q1 originations were about $45 billion versus $32 billion in prior-year Q1, representing roughly a +41% year‑over‑year increase. Management noted Q1 is typically the slowest quarter, making the outperformance notable.
Negative Updates
Competitive Landscape and Rate Volatility
Management described the market as very competitive with heightened rate volatility (10‑year rose to ~3.95% in March). Volatility favors purchase activity over refis and requires frequent intra‑day rate sheet adjustments, which can pressure execution and margins.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Volume and YoY Growth
Q1 originations were about $45 billion versus $32 billion in prior-year Q1, representing roughly a +41% year‑over‑year increase. Management noted Q1 is typically the slowest quarter, making the outperformance notable.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that it will bring all servicing in‑house this year (currently with fewer than 100,000 loans live on the new platform and moving the remainder of ~700,000 consumers onto it), reported Q1 gain‑on‑sale margins near prior strong levels (about 122–123 bps in Q4/Q1) and year‑over‑year volume growth (Q1 volume ~ $45B vs. $32B a year ago), and reiterated a five‑year ambition of doing over $1.3 trillion of mortgages (with a potential peak year near $400B and a low year $150–$200B) while keeping quarterly expenses roughly flat at about $590–600M and growing “other” revenue by ~20–25%; other metrics included Mia producing roughly 80k–100k closings over the last year with a ~40% call pick‑up (≈16k of 40k calls on a high‑volume day) driving 12–13% of refinances despite only 2–3% of the servicing book, ~12.0–12.5k brokers (only ~400–500 not “all‑in”), a pro‑channel market share ~44.7–44.8%, current broker channel share ~28% (from ~14–15% in early 2020) with a 50.1% broker goal, BILT partnership access to >6M consumers (8–10% of whom buy homes annually), rapid VantageScore rollout (live within days, ~20‑point comparability haircut to FICO), and an early view that the March 4 trigger‑lead rule reduced the typical consumer outreach from ~50 lenders to ~3–4, which may modestly support margins.UWM Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.10B | 3.16B | 1.91B | 1.11B | 2.15B | 2.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.56B | 2.71B | 1.37B | 755.02M | 1.81B | 2.48B |
| EBITDA | 1.03B | 831.73M | 384.73M | -26.23M | 984.07M | 1.62B |
| Net Income | 66.36M | 27.38M | 14.40M | -13.23M | 41.72M | 98.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.27B | 16.93B | 15.67B | 11.87B | 13.60B | 22.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 424.00M | 503.36M | 507.34M | 497.47M | 704.90M | 731.09M |
| Total Debt | 16.22B | 14.44B | 12.84B | 8.73B | 9.78B | 18.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.67B | 15.34B | 13.62B | 9.40B | 10.43B | 19.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 229.52M | 199.52M | 161.52M | 112.55M | 143.56M | 142.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.55B | -2.72B | -6.28B | 138.81M | 8.24B | -10.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -5.47B | -2.65B | -6.24B | 165.24M | 8.27B | -9.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.86B | 2.26B | 2.68B | 1.83B | 1.29B | 199.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.58B | 384.02M | 3.58B | -2.20B | -9.58B | 9.26B |
UWM Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
3.92
Price Trends
3.51
Negative
4.10
Negative
4.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
38.25
Neutral
63.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UWMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.24, above the 50-day MA of 3.51, and below the 200-day MA of 4.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UWMC.
UWM Holding Risk Analysis
UWM Holding disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UWM Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UWM Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
56 Neutral | $4.47B | 13.84 | 12.02% | 0.90% | 24.55% | 43.82% | |
53 Neutral | $39.73B | 33.93 | 1.53% | ― | 73.75% | 269.75% | |
50 Neutral | $4.98B | 10.45 | 33.91% | 8.64% | 37.10% | ― | |
42 Neutral | $429.04M | -2.17 | -32.25% | ― | 14.29% | 21.88% |
* Financial Sector Average
UWMC
UWM Holding
3.10
-0.73
-19.12%
PFSI
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87.39
-7.41
-7.81%
LDI
loanDepot
1.29
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RKT
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10.88%
UWM Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Challenges Two Harbors Board Over Rejected Offer
Negative
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, UWMC publicly criticized the board of Two Harbors Investment Corp. for rejecting its May 11 proposal to acquire Two Harbors for $12.50 per share in cash or UWMC stock, in favor of a lower-value merger with CrossCountry Mortgage. U...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Challenges Two Harbors–CrossCountry Merger After ISS Pushback
Negative
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, UWM Holdings announced that proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services recommended that stockholders of Two Harbors Investment Corp. vote against the proposed merger with CrossCountry Mortgage at a special meeting sche...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Submits Revised All-Cash or Stock Bid
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, UWM Holdings said it will submit a revised bid to acquire all shares of Two Harbors Investment Corp., offering either $12.50 in cash per share or 2.3328 shares of UWMC stock, a package it argues delivers superior value to Two Harb...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
UWM Holding Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Performance
Positive
May 6, 2026
UWM Holdings Corporation reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, posting loan origination volume of $44.9 billion, up 39% year over year and the company’s second-highest first-quarter production. Revenue rose to $901.4 million an...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
UWM Holding Challenges Two Harbors Board Over Rejected Bid
Negative
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, UWM Holdings sharply criticized Two Harbors Investment Corp.’s board for rejecting its $12.00-per-share acquisition proposal in favor of an $11.30-per-share cash deal with CrossCountry Mortgage. UWM argued that its fully fina...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Revises Bid to Acquire Two Harbors
Positive
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, UWM Holdings issued an open letter to stockholders of Two Harbors Investment Corp. detailing a revised proposal to acquire the company, allowing Two Harbors investors to elect for each share either $12 in cash or 2.3328 shares o...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Ramps Up Efforts for Two Harbors Acquisition
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, UWM Holdings Corporation said it had hired proxy solicitation and advisory firm Okapi Partners to assist in gathering shareholder support for its planned acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., under a merger agreement sign...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
UWM Holding Highlights Two Harbors Acquisition in Investor Update
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, UWM Holdings Corporation released an investor presentation detailing its pending acquisition of Two Harbors, Inc., highlighting how UWM’s top‑ranked origination platform will be paired with Two Harbors’ high...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Raises 2026 Outlook, Highlights AI Efficiency
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 9, 2026, UWM Holdings updated its outlook ahead of Two Harbors Investment Corp.’s upcoming stockholder meeting, highlighting that fourth-quarter 2025 loan originations reached $49.6 billion, its highest quarterly volume since 2021. ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
UWM Highlights Mortgage Leadership and Growth Strategy in Earnings
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
In its February 2026 earnings presentation, UWM highlighted its entrenched leadership in the U.S. mortgage market, reporting fourth-quarter 2025 loan production of $49.6 billion, including $18.9 billion of purchase production, and servicing unpaid...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
UWM Holding Reports Strong Q4 2025 Results, Dividend Declared
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, UWM Holdings Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 loan originations of $49.6 billion, its largest quarterly volume since 2021, and full-year 2025 originations of $163.4 billion. Fourth-quarter revenue rose to $945.2 milli...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.