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UWM Holding (UWMC)
NYSE:UWMC
US Market

UWM Holding (UWMC) AI Stock Analysis

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UW

UWM Holding

(NYSE:UWMC)

Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-5.66%Downside)
UWM Holding's stock score is influenced by significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, which adds to the stock's risk profile. Despite these concerns, the company is making strategic investments and maintaining a high dividend yield. The earnings call and recent corporate events indicate a focus on growth and operational improvements, but the financial risks weigh heavily on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Market Position
UWMC appears poised to be one of the main beneficiaries of a normalizing mortgage market given its dominant position in the purchase market and increasing share in the refi market.
Technology Innovation
Official launch of 'Mia', industry's first AI-generated loan officer calling assistant, which could boost volumes and enhance broker efficiency.
Negative Factors
Earnings Forecast
The 2025 EPS estimate is moving lower after incorporating the 1Q guide, lower investment income, and slightly higher run-rate expenses.
Technology Adoption
The effectiveness of 'Mia' is uncertain as customers and/or brokers may be resistant to an AI assistant making phone calls.

UWM Holding (UWMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

UWM Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUWM Holding Corp., operating through its subsidiary United Wholesale Mortgage, is one of the largest wholesale mortgage lenders in the United States. The company operates in the financial services and real estate sectors, with a focus on providing mortgage lending services. Its core offerings include residential mortgage loan products, which the company originates through a network of independent mortgage brokers across the country.
How the Company Makes MoneyUWM Holding Corp. generates revenue primarily through the origination and sale of residential mortgage loans. The company earns money by charging fees for loan origination, underwriting, and servicing. Additionally, UWM Holding profits from the sale of these loans on the secondary market, often to government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The company also benefits from its strategic partnerships with a vast network of independent mortgage brokers, which enhances its ability to reach a large pool of potential borrowers and maintain a high volume of loan originations. These partnerships, along with a focus on technology and efficient loan processing, contribute significantly to the company's revenue streams.

UWM Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -11.11%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a strong focus on growth and investment in technology, with significant achievements in increasing market share and operational improvements. However, the net loss and increased expenses pose challenges. The outlook remains optimistic with new initiatives and expected growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Growth in Mortgage Broker Channel
The mortgage broker channel share of the industry increased by almost 40%, from about 19.7% to almost 28%, marking the highest level since 2008.
In-House Servicing Initiative
UWM plans to bring servicing in-house, aiming for cost savings estimated between $40 and $100 million per year, leveraging technology and AI.
Strong Loan Production Numbers
Closed $32.4 billion of production for the quarter, a 17% growth year over year, which outperformed the industry.
Improved Operational Metrics
Submission to close time improved to 12.7 days from 13.9 days year over year, with an NPS score of 87.3.
Solid Liquidity Position
UWM reported $485 million in cash and $2.4 billion in total accessible liquidity.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in Q1 2025
Reported a $247 million net loss, inclusive of a $388 million reduction in the fair value of the MSR portfolio.
Increased Expenses
Expenses are up compared to Q1 of 2024, aligning with the strategy of investing for continued growth.
Lower Gain Margin
Gain margin was at 94 basis points, slightly lower than desired, though trending higher overall.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, UWM Holdings Corporation reported significant growth and strategic developments. The company achieved a 17% year-over-year increase in production, closing $32.4 billion, with a notable $10.6 billion in refinanced value. Despite a net loss of $247 million, influenced by a $388 million reduction in the fair value of their MSR portfolio, UWM maintained a strong operational performance, with a submission-to-close time of 12.7 days and a high net promoter score of 87.3. The company announced plans to bring servicing in-house, estimating annual cost savings between $40 and $100 million. For Q2 2025, UWM forecasts production between $38 billion and $45 billion, with a gain margin of 90 to 115 basis points, underscoring their focus on technology and operational excellence.

UWM Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UWM Holding faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, high leverage, and negative cash flows. While some operational efficiencies are present, the company needs strategic adjustments to improve profitability and stabilize its financial health. Addressing debt levels and enhancing revenue growth are crucial for future sustainability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows fluctuating performance with a notable decline in total revenue from the previous annual period. The gross profit margin has decreased from prior periods, suggesting potential cost control issues. Net profit margin is low and has shown volatility, indicating unstable profitability. Revenue growth is negative, highlighting a challenge in maintaining sales momentum. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain reasonably healthy, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reflects a highly leveraged position with a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant financial risk. Return on equity is low, indicating poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is also low, underscoring the company's reliance on debt financing. The company needs to address its capital structure for better financial stability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, indicating issues with liquidity and cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow inadequacy to cover profits. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio shows potential for improvement if operational adjustments are made.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.66B2.16B2.17B1.84B2.53B2.53B
Gross Profit
1.43B1.42B1.88B1.84B2.53B2.53B
EBIT
152.15M1.86B1.09B0.000.00108.29M
EBITDA
187.36M384.73M1.14B0.000.000.00
Net Income Common Stockholders
30.23M14.40M-13.23M41.72M98.44M1.57B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
133.28M610.35M497.47M818.19M818.19M731.09M
Total Assets
6.65B15.67B11.87B13.60B13.60B22.53B
Total Debt
5.68B12.84B8.73B9.43B9.43B18.11B
Net Debt
5.54B12.33B8.23B8.73B8.73B17.38B
Total Liabilities
5.99B13.62B9.40B10.43B10.43B19.36B
Stockholders Equity
661.32M2.05B112.55M143.56M143.56M142.40M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-3.50B-6.28B138.81M8.24B8.24B-10.02B
Operating Cash Flow
-3.44B-6.24B165.24M8.27B8.27B-9.96B
Investing Cash Flow
2.32B2.68B1.83B1.29B1.29B199.75M
Financing Cash Flow
1.01B3.58B-2.20B-9.58B-9.58B9.26B

UWM Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price4.24
Price Trends
50DMA
4.48
Negative
100DMA
5.27
Negative
200DMA
6.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Negative
RSI
50.87
Neutral
STOCH
56.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UWMC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.17, below the 50-day MA of 4.48, and below the 200-day MA of 6.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UWMC.

UWM Holding Risk Analysis

UWM Holding disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UWM Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

UWM Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MTMTG
79
Outperform
$6.25B8.7515.12%1.98%4.64%15.36%
79
Outperform
$5.86B8.4713.29%2.04%9.87%3.41%
PRPRI
74
Outperform
$8.92B18.3223.87%1.43%10.18%-9.75%
73
Outperform
$8.40B15.0112.39%6.44%-7.86%
64
Neutral
$12.86B9.797.78%16985.65%12.28%-7.82%
62
Neutral
$4.94B14.689.32%1.25%23.79%121.61%
41
Neutral
$6.72B37.74-5.74%9.52%9.19%-171.38%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UWMC
UWM Holding
4.24
-2.60
-38.01%
MTG
MGIC Investment
26.05
6.01
29.99%
PRI
Primerica
262.23
44.43
20.40%
PFSI
PennyMac Financial
96.95
9.57
10.95%
ESNT
Essent Group
57.52
3.60
6.68%
COOP
Mr Cooper Group
135.45
54.52
67.37%

UWM Holding Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
UWM Holding Concludes Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

On June 4, 2025, UWM Holdings Corporation conducted its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Stockholders voted to elect three directors to serve until 2028, ratified Deloitte & Touche, LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved the executive compensation package on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to maintaining strong leadership and financial accountability, potentially impacting its operational stability and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (UWMC) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UWM Holding stock, see the UWMC Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
UWM Holding Announces Cash Dividend Amidst Q1 Loss
Negative
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, UWM Holdings Corporation announced a cash dividend of $0.10 per share for Class A common stock, payable on July 10, 2025. The company reported first-quarter 2025 results with a loan origination volume of $32.4 billion, marking a 17% increase year-over-year. Despite this growth, UWM experienced a net loss of $247 million, attributed to a decline in the fair value of mortgage servicing rights. The company’s strategic focus remains on long-term value creation, leveraging its ability to quickly adapt to market changes.

Executive/Board Changes
UWM Holding Appoints Rami Hasani as New CFO
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

On March 28, 2025, UWM Holdings Corporation announced that Andrew Hubacker would transition to a senior advisor role, and Rami Hasani would be appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective April 1, 2025. Mr. Hasani, who has been with the company since 2020, will also take on the role of principal accounting officer. His promotion comes with a salary increase, a higher annual bonus target, and a long-term incentive plan award. The Compensation Committee also approved a one-time promotion award of restricted stock units valued at $1 million, which will vest in seven years.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.