Guild Holdings (GHLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.23B
• Dividend Yield: 2.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 124.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.05
• Revenue Growth: 42.92%
• EPS Growth: 64.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,270
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 21,903,383
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 81,951
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 124,408
• PEG Ratio: -0.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.08
• 1Y Price Target: $17.67
• Price Target Upside: -10.94% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▼(-26.92%Downside)

The overall stock score reflects a balance of financial challenges and operational pressures against strong technical momentum and positive corporate events. The merger announcement provides a growth catalyst, but financial and valuation concerns limit the overall score.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

Guild announced it has agreed to be acquired by Bayview Asset Management for $20/share, representing a 27% premium to GHLD's tangible book value.

Financial Performance

GHLD's recent valuation pullback sets up for a potential rally on good 4Q results and guidance, led in part by some mark-to-market upside expected for its MSR portfolio.

Partnership

The transaction will lead to Guild operating as a privately held independent company, where it will partner with Lakeview Loan Servicing, Bayview's affiliate mortgage servicer.

Negative Factors

Interest Rate Dynamics

The stock could offer an effective way to tactically hedge a portfolio which is more geared for rates to fall, especially versus higher-beta lenders whose earnings and stock valuation may be more conditioned on realizing higher refi activity.

Market Competition

Beneath GHLD is still a wide and very scattered field of small originators and de-novo networks of loan officers, whose 'distributed retail' model can easily plug into a company like Guild's.

Guild Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guild Holdings Company, a mortgage company, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates approximately 260 branches with licenses in 49 states. It originates residential mortgages through retail and correspondent channels. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Guild Holdings makes money primarily through the origination, sale, and servicing of residential mortgage loans. The company generates revenue from loan origination fees, gain on sale of loans to the secondary market, and servicing income from managing the ongoing relationship with borrowers and collecting payments. Key revenue streams include the fees charged during the loan origination process, premiums received when selling loans to investors, and recurring servicing fees. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as interest rates, housing market conditions, and its ability to effectively manage loan servicing operations. Additionally, Guild Holdings may engage in strategic partnerships with real estate agents and homebuilders to drive loan origination volumes.

Guild Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guild Holdings is facing operational and profitability pressures with declining revenue and margins, as well as cash flow challenges. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but limited financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Guild Holdings shows declining revenue growth with a 10.14% decrease in TTM compared to the previous annual report. The gross profit margin is strong at 73.0% for TTM, but net profit margin has declined to 4.24%, indicating reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has diminished to 3.73% in TTM, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio of 26.39% shows a stable asset base but suggests limited financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates challenges with negative free cash flow growth, worsening to -43.39% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting operational cash challenges. However, free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly better at -8.47%, indicating some ability to convert net income to cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.17B	663.86M	1.16B	1.58B	1.62B
Gross Profit	1.06B	677.89M	473.93M	489.19M	1.59B
EBITDA	156.84M	59.49M	840.77M	486.15M	619.94M
Net Income	97.13M	-39.01M	328.60M	283.77M	370.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.77B	3.68B	3.24B	4.38B	4.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	118.20M	136.82M	137.89M	243.11M	334.62M
Total Debt	300.00M	526.78M	925.91M	2.28B	2.39B
Total Liabilities	3.51B	2.49B	1.99B	3.46B	4.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.25B	1.18B	1.25B	919.98M	735.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-668.99M	-97.23M	1.26B	675.85M	-476.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-659.62M	-91.72M	1.26B	680.46M	-468.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-152.39M	-136.60M	-7.18M	-104.66M	-18.02M
Financing Cash Flow	809.69M	208.95M	-1.35B	-667.31M	718.96M

Guild Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.80, above the 50-day MA of 16.59, and above the 200-day MA of 14.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 80.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHLD.

Guild Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VEL	68 Neutral	$637.14M	9.21	13.62%	―	32.62%	16.91%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$16.93B	11.67	9.79%	3.89%	11.83%	-7.56%
PFSI	63 Neutral	$5.39B	14.46	10.05%	1.15%	23.65%	96.22%
WD	61 Neutral	$2.45B	24.71	5.62%	3.49%	6.68%	6.08%
GHLD	57 Neutral	$1.23B	28.57	3.71%	2.52%	42.92%	64.72%
RKT	55 Neutral	$29.43B	68.51	0.45%	―	24.58%	-88.86%
LDI	48 Neutral	$620.23M	―	-29.48%	―	3.76%	16.19%

Guild Holdings Corporate Events

Guild Holdings Announces Merger with Gulf MSR HoldCo

On June 17, 2025, Guild Holdings Company entered into a Merger Agreement with Gulf MSR HoldCo, LLC and Gulf MSR Merger Sub Corporation, resulting in Guild Holdings becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf MSR HoldCo. The merger, unanimously approved by Guild Holdings’ board, involves converting each share of common stock into $20.00 in cash, with potential dividends not affecting this consideration. The merger is expected to complete in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals and other conditions. McCarthy Capital Mortgage Investors, LLC, holding a majority of voting power, has already consented to the merger, ensuring necessary stockholder approval. The merger is not subject to financing conditions, and termination fees are stipulated for both parties under certain circumstances.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.

Guild Holdings Announces Merger with Gulf MSR

On June 17, 2025, Guild Holdings Company announced a merger agreement with Gulf MSR Holdco, LLC, under which Guild will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf MSR. Guild stockholders will receive $20 per share in cash, a premium to its previous stock price. The transaction, valued at approximately $1.3 billion, will see Guild operate as a private entity in partnership with Lakeview Loan Servicing. The merger is expected to enhance Guild’s mortgage origination and servicing platform, providing growth opportunities without altering its current operations or brand. The transaction is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.

Guild Holdings Stockholders Approve Key Amendments

On May 27, 2025, Guild Holdings Company, a player in the financial sector, held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made. The stockholders approved an amendment to limit the monetary liability of the company’s officers, aligning with Delaware law, and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, they voted in favor of the compensation of the company’s named executive officers and elected two Class II directors to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.

Guild Holdings Explores Strategic Options with Bayview

On May 23, 2025, Guild Holdings Company announced that it is in preliminary discussions with Bayview Asset Management regarding a potential corporate transaction, which could include a significant minority investment, merger, or other business combinations. While Bayview currently owns 7.3% of Guild’s Class A common stock, no agreement has been reached, and there is no certainty that discussions will lead to a transaction. The announcement reflects Guild’s strategic exploration of opportunities to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Sell with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.