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Guild Holdings Co. (GHLD)
:GHLD
US Market

Guild Holdings (GHLD) AI Stock Analysis

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Guild Holdings

(NYSE:GHLD)

Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
â–¼(-26.66%Downside)
The overall stock score reflects a balance of financial challenges and operational pressures against strong technical momentum and positive corporate events. The merger announcement provides a growth catalyst, but financial and valuation concerns limit the overall score.
Positive Factors
Acquisition
Guild announced it has agreed to be acquired by Bayview Asset Management for $20/share, or $1.3 billion in cash, representing a 27% premium to GHLD's tangible book value.
Strategic Partnership
The transaction will lead to Guild operating as a privately held independent company, where it will partner with Lakeview Loan Servicing, Bayview's affiliate mortgage servicer.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
GHLD is a top-20 originator by total loan volume, but beneath them is still a wide and very scattered field of small originators and de-novo networks of loan officers, whose 'distributed retail' model can easily plug into a company like Guild's.

Guild Holdings (GHLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Guild Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGuild Holdings Company, a mortgage company, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates approximately 260 branches with licenses in 49 states. It originates residential mortgages through retail and correspondent channels. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyGuild Holdings makes money primarily through the origination, sale, and servicing of residential mortgage loans. The company generates revenue from loan origination fees, gain on sale of loans to the secondary market, and servicing income from managing the ongoing relationship with borrowers and collecting payments. Key revenue streams include the fees charged during the loan origination process, premiums received when selling loans to investors, and recurring servicing fees. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as interest rates, housing market conditions, and its ability to effectively manage loan servicing operations. Additionally, Guild Holdings may engage in strategic partnerships with real estate agents and homebuilders to drive loan origination volumes.

Guild Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 58.16%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment with strong growth in originations and improved loan officer productivity as highlights. However, the net loss reported and decline in net revenue and servicing segment performance presented significant challenges. Despite these hurdles, the company showed resilience with strategic investments and a strong servicing portfolio.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Growth in Originations
Achieved 35% growth in originations year-over-year to $5.2 billion, showcasing the success of the growth strategy and market share gains.
Positive Adjusted Financial Performance
Delivered positive adjusted EBITDA of $36.4 million and adjusted net income of $21.6 million despite market volatility.
Increase in Loan Officer Headcount
More than doubled loan officer headcount since the end of 2020, contributing to increased productivity and market presence.
Strong Servicing Portfolio
Servicing portfolio expanded to more than $94 billion, providing financial stability and consistent cash flows.
Improved Origination Segment Profitability
Origination segment profitability improved by $21 million compared to the previous year due to acquisitions and organic growth.
High Loan Officer Productivity
Loan officers at Guild experienced 30% more productivity than the industry average, driven by superior technology and sales coaching.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in the First Quarter
Reported a net loss attributable to Guild of $24 million compared to a net income of $28 million in the prior year.
Decline in Net Revenue
Net revenue totaled $198 million, down from $232 million in the prior year and $373 million in the fourth quarter.
Servicing Segment Net Loss
Servicing segment reported a net loss of $5 million compared to a net income of $84 million in the prior year, primarily due to a $70 million downward valuation adjustment of MSRs.
Company Guidance
During the Guild Holdings Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 35% year-over-year increase in loan originations, reaching $5.2 billion, and achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA of $36.4 million alongside an adjusted net income of $21.6 million. The servicing portfolio expanded to over $94 billion despite market volatility, providing stability and fueling the "customers for life" strategy. The gain on sale margin for the first quarter was 376 basis points, with a pull-through adjusted lock volume of $5.9 billion. The company maintained a strong balance sheet with cash and equivalents of $112 million and a leverage ratio of 1.6x. Guild Holdings repurchased approximately 35,000 shares and paid a special cash dividend of $0.50 per share during the quarter. Looking ahead, the company anticipates continued market volatility but remains confident in its balanced business model and strategic growth initiatives, including organic recruiting and opportunistic acquisitions.

Guild Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Guild Holdings is facing operational and profitability pressures with declining revenue and margins. While the balance sheet shows manageable leverage, cash flow challenges highlight potential difficulties in sustaining operations without adjustments.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Guild Holdings shows declining revenue growth with a 10.14% decrease in TTM compared to the previous annual report. The gross profit margin is strong at 73.0% for TTM, but net profit margin has declined to 4.24%, indicating reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has diminished to 3.73% in TTM, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio of 26.39% shows a stable asset base but suggests limited financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
The cash flow statement indicates challenges with negative free cash flow growth, worsening to -43.39% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting operational cash challenges. However, free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly better at -8.47%, indicating some ability to convert net income to cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.06B1.17B663.86M1.16B1.58B1.62B
Gross Profit770.88M1.06B677.89M473.93M489.19M1.59B
EBITDA121.02M156.84M59.49M840.77M486.15M619.94M
Net Income44.74M97.13M-39.01M328.60M283.77M370.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.77B4.77B3.68B3.24B4.38B4.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments118.20M118.20M136.82M137.89M243.11M334.62M
Total Debt300.00M300.00M526.78M925.91M2.28B2.39B
Total Liabilities3.51B3.51B2.49B1.99B3.46B4.08B
Stockholders Equity1.25B1.25B1.18B1.25B919.98M735.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-378.70M-668.99M-97.23M1.26B675.85M-476.27M
Operating Cash Flow-367.65M-659.62M-91.72M1.26B680.46M-468.04M
Investing Cash Flow7.89M-152.39M-136.60M-7.18M-104.66M-18.02M
Financing Cash Flow378.29M809.69M208.95M-1.35B-667.31M718.96M

Guild Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.77
Price Trends
50DMA
14.65
Positive
100DMA
13.81
Positive
200DMA
13.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.68
Negative
RSI
81.97
Negative
STOCH
69.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.02, above the 50-day MA of 14.65, and above the 200-day MA of 13.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.97 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHLD.

Guild Holdings Risk Analysis

Guild Holdings disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guild Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Guild Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$1.21B13.126.21%3.11%2.27%-2.50%
71
Outperform
$1.06B11.925.51%4.54%1.38%-10.46%
71
Outperform
$946.29M12.986.01%5.12%4.33%-11.14%
70
Outperform
$965.22M9.798.24%13.57%3.82%-12.74%
60
Neutral
C$14.62B6.2020.17%5.63%26.93%-38.21%
57
Neutral
$1.23B28.493.71%2.53%42.92%64.72%
55
Neutral
$1.06B13.857.90%2.96%9.99%1.88%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GHLD
Guild Holdings
19.78
5.89
42.40%
BRKL
Brookline Bancorp
10.93
2.81
34.61%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
18.22
3.38
22.78%
FBMS
The First Bancshares
33.81
9.06
36.61%
BBDC
Barings BDC
9.17
0.37
4.20%
CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp
24.06
6.00
33.22%

Guild Holdings Corporate Events

M&A Transactions
Guild Holdings Announces Merger with Gulf MSR HoldCo
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 17, 2025, Guild Holdings Company entered into a Merger Agreement with Gulf MSR HoldCo, LLC and Gulf MSR Merger Sub Corporation, resulting in Guild Holdings becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf MSR HoldCo. The merger, unanimously approved by Guild Holdings’ board, involves converting each share of common stock into $20.00 in cash, with potential dividends not affecting this consideration. The merger is expected to complete in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals and other conditions. McCarthy Capital Mortgage Investors, LLC, holding a majority of voting power, has already consented to the merger, ensuring necessary stockholder approval. The merger is not subject to financing conditions, and termination fees are stipulated for both parties under certain circumstances.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Guild Holdings Announces Merger with Gulf MSR
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

On June 17, 2025, Guild Holdings Company announced a merger agreement with Gulf MSR Holdco, LLC, under which Guild will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf MSR. Guild stockholders will receive $20 per share in cash, a premium to its previous stock price. The transaction, valued at approximately $1.3 billion, will see Guild operate as a private entity in partnership with Lakeview Loan Servicing. The merger is expected to enhance Guild’s mortgage origination and servicing platform, providing growth opportunities without altering its current operations or brand. The transaction is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Guild Holdings Stockholders Approve Key Amendments
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On May 27, 2025, Guild Holdings Company, a player in the financial sector, held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made. The stockholders approved an amendment to limit the monetary liability of the company’s officers, aligning with Delaware law, and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, they voted in favor of the compensation of the company’s named executive officers and elected two Class II directors to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Guild Holdings Explores Strategic Options with Bayview
Neutral
May 23, 2025

On May 23, 2025, Guild Holdings Company announced that it is in preliminary discussions with Bayview Asset Management regarding a potential corporate transaction, which could include a significant minority investment, merger, or other business combinations. While Bayview currently owns 7.3% of Guild’s Class A common stock, no agreement has been reached, and there is no certainty that discussions will lead to a transaction. The announcement reflects Guild’s strategic exploration of opportunities to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Sell with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 19, 2025