Guild Holdings (GHLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 29.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 51.0
• Beta (1Y): -0.07
• Revenue Growth: 23.81%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,270
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 21,920,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 25,588
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 29,311
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.26
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $22.00 ▲(9.95% Upside)

Guild Holdings' strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and gross profit margins, is a key strength. However, increased leverage and declining cash flow metrics pose risks. The technical analysis suggests stability, while the valuation indicates the stock may be undervalued, offering potential upside.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates expanding market reach and effective business strategies, supporting long-term sustainability.

Gross Profit Margin

High gross profit margins reflect efficient cost management, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning over time.

Market Position

Strong market position and platform expansion efforts indicate potential for sustained growth and competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Increased Leverage

Higher leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially impacting long-term financial health if not managed.

Declining Cash Flow

Declining cash flow generation can strain operations and limit investment capacity, affecting future growth and stability.

Net Profit Margin

Lower net profit margins indicate potential inefficiencies, which could hinder profitability and competitiveness if not addressed.

Guild Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guild Holdings Company, a mortgage company, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates approximately 260 branches with licenses in 49 states. It originates residential mortgages through retail and correspondent channels. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Guild Holdings generates revenue primarily through the origination and sale of mortgage loans. The company earns money by charging origination fees, underwriting fees, and interest on the loans it provides. Additionally, Guild generates income from servicing loans, which includes collecting monthly payments and managing escrow accounts for property taxes and homeowners insurance. The sale of mortgage-backed securities also contributes to their revenue, as Guild bundles and sells loans to investors. Partnerships with various financial institutions and real estate networks further enhance their market reach and revenue opportunities, allowing Guild to tap into a larger customer base and optimize its operational efficiency.

Guild Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guild Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth and high gross profit margins, indicating robust operational performance. However, increased leverage and declining cash flow metrics highlight potential risks. The company needs to focus on improving cash flow generation and managing debt levels to ensure long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

Guild Holdings has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 18.57% in the TTM period, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin is exceptionally high at 94.83%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin of 9.75% suggests room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, though slightly lower than previous years, indicating stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 2.69, indicating higher leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity is moderate at 10.27%, showing decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 24.28% suggests a balanced capital structure, though there is a reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decline in cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.22, suggesting potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating that most of the net income is being converted into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.30B	1.17B	730.23M	1.22B	1.65B	1.69B
Gross Profit	1.19B	1.06B	663.86M	1.17B	1.59B	1.63B
EBITDA	199.50M	156.84M	-10.12M	451.52M	420.12M	520.17M
Net Income	126.03M	97.13M	-39.01M	328.60M	283.77M	370.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.10B	4.77B	3.68B	3.24B	4.38B	4.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	106.40M	118.20M	120.26M	137.89M	243.11M	334.62M
Total Debt	3.33B	3.03B	2.09B	1.58B	3.01B	5.81B
Total Liabilities	3.86B	3.51B	2.49B	1.99B	3.46B	4.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.24B	1.25B	1.18B	1.25B	919.98M	735.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.85M	-668.99M	-97.23M	1.26B	675.85M	-476.27M
Operating Cash Flow	33.91M	-659.62M	-91.72M	1.26B	680.46M	-468.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-127.22M	-152.39M	-136.60M	-7.18M	-104.66M	-18.02M
Financing Cash Flow	98.23M	809.69M	208.95M	-1.35B	-667.31M	718.96M

Guild Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.94, above the 50-day MA of 19.92, and above the 200-day MA of 17.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHLD.

Guild Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GHLD	70 Outperform	$1.24B	50.97	10.53%	―	23.81%	―
PFSI	68 Neutral	$6.59B	13.66	12.55%	0.91%	25.42%	190.85%
VEL	68 Neutral	$756.99M	8.12	16.04%	―	36.73%	27.50%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WD	65 Neutral	$2.16B	18.79	6.46%	4.16%	12.08%	20.13%
RKT	59 Neutral	$57.19B	255.79	-2.15%	―	22.56%	―
LDI	44 Neutral	$876.41M	-7.36	-25.72%	―	3.91%	27.78%

Guild Holdings Corporate Events

Guild Holdings Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance

Guild Holdings Company, a prominent player in the mortgage industry, focuses on providing residential mortgage products and services across the United States through a relationship-based loan sourcing strategy.

Guild Holdings Co. Faces Operational Challenges Amid Merger Uncertainties

The pending merger poses significant risks to Guild Holdings Co., as business uncertainties and contractual restrictions in the Merger Agreement may hinder its ability to capitalize on beneficial opportunities. The company may face challenges in retaining and motivating key personnel, potentially leading to distractions from its strategic objectives and daily operations. These limitations could adversely impact the company’s business and operational effectiveness during the merger process. The necessity for prior written consent from the Parent for certain actions further complicates the company’s ability to navigate this transitional period effectively.

Guild Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance

Guild Holdings Company, a prominent player in the mortgage industry, is known for its relationship-based loan sourcing strategy aimed at facilitating homeownership across the United States. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, Guild Holdings showcased robust financial performance despite challenging market conditions. The company reported total originations of $7.5 billion, a significant increase from the previous quarter, and a net revenue of $279.4 million. Notably, 89% of the loan volume was attributed to purchase originations, highlighting the company’s strong foothold in the purchase market.

Guild Holdings Declares Special Cash Dividend

Guild Holdings Company reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with total originations reaching $7.5 billion, a significant increase from previous quarters. The company achieved a net income of $18.7 million and an adjusted net income of $41.4 million, highlighting the success of its strategic focus on growth and efficiency. The board of directors also declared a special cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on September 2, 2025, indicating confidence in the company’s financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.