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Guild Holdings (GHLD)
NYSE:GHLD
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Guild Holdings
(NYSE:GHLD)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(2.40%Upside)
Guild Holdings (GHLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$880.90M
Dividend Yield3.53%
Average Volume (3M)12.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.4
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth42.92%
EPS Growth64.72%
CountryUS
Employees5,270
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength83
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding21,877,157
10 Day Avg. Volume15,579
30 Day Avg. Volume12,027
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.36
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.80Price Target Upside4.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
Guild Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGuild Holdings (GHLD) is a leading independent mortgage company that operates primarily in the United States. It specializes in residential mortgage lending, providing a wide range of mortgage products designed to meet the diverse needs of homebuyers. The company offers conventional loans, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loans, and other government-backed loans, serving a broad customer base through its retail and correspondent channels.
How the Company Makes MoneyGuild Holdings generates revenue through the origination and sale of residential mortgage loans. The company earns money primarily from the fees and interest associated with originating mortgage loans and from selling these loans to secondary market investors, including government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Additionally, Guild Holdings generates income from the servicing of mortgage loans, earning fees for managing loan accounts and processing payments over the life of the loan. Significant partnerships with real estate agents, builders, and financial institutions help expand its customer base and drive loan origination volumes, contributing to its overall revenue.
Guild Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 13.28%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment with strong growth in originations and improved loan officer productivity as highlights. However, the net loss reported and decline in net revenue and servicing segment performance presented significant challenges. Despite these hurdles, the company showed resilience with strategic investments and a strong servicing portfolio.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Growth in Originations
Achieved 35% growth in originations year-over-year to $5.2 billion, showcasing the success of the growth strategy and market share gains.
Positive Adjusted Financial Performance
Delivered positive adjusted EBITDA of $36.4 million and adjusted net income of $21.6 million despite market volatility.
Increase in Loan Officer Headcount
More than doubled loan officer headcount since the end of 2020, contributing to increased productivity and market presence.
Strong Servicing Portfolio
Servicing portfolio expanded to more than $94 billion, providing financial stability and consistent cash flows.
Improved Origination Segment Profitability
Origination segment profitability improved by $21 million compared to the previous year due to acquisitions and organic growth.
High Loan Officer Productivity
Loan officers at Guild experienced 30% more productivity than the industry average, driven by superior technology and sales coaching.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in the First Quarter
Reported a net loss attributable to Guild of $24 million compared to a net income of $28 million in the prior year.
Decline in Net Revenue
Net revenue totaled $198 million, down from $232 million in the prior year and $373 million in the fourth quarter.
Servicing Segment Net Loss
Servicing segment reported a net loss of $5 million compared to a net income of $84 million in the prior year, primarily due to a $70 million downward valuation adjustment of MSRs.
Company Guidance
During the Guild Holdings Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 35% year-over-year increase in loan originations, reaching $5.2 billion, and achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA of $36.4 million alongside an adjusted net income of $21.6 million. The servicing portfolio expanded to over $94 billion despite market volatility, providing stability and fueling the "customers for life" strategy. The gain on sale margin for the first quarter was 376 basis points, with a pull-through adjusted lock volume of $5.9 billion. The company maintained a strong balance sheet with cash and equivalents of $112 million and a leverage ratio of 1.6x. Guild Holdings repurchased approximately 35,000 shares and paid a special cash dividend of $0.50 per share during the quarter. Looking ahead, the company anticipates continued market volatility but remains confident in its balanced business model and strategic growth initiatives, including organic recruiting and opportunistic acquisitions.Guild Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Guild Holdings is facing operational and profitability pressures with declining revenue and margins. While the balance sheet shows manageable leverage, cash flow challenges highlight potential difficulties in sustaining operations without adjustments.Income Statement
Guild Holdings shows declining revenue growth with a 10.14% decrease in TTM compared to the previous annual report. The gross profit margin is strong at 73.0% for TTM, but net profit margin has declined to 4.24%, indicating reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has diminished to 3.73% in TTM, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio of 26.39% shows a stable asset base but suggests limited financial flexibility.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement indicates challenges with negative free cash flow growth, worsening to -43.39% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting operational cash challenges. However, free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly better at -8.47%, indicating some ability to convert net income to cash.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.06B | 1.17B | 663.86M | 1.16B | 1.58B | 1.62B | Gross Profit |
| 770.88M | 1.06B | 677.89M | 473.93M | 489.19M | 1.59B | EBIT |
| 87.34M | 119.06M | 59.49M | 487.22M | 386.92M | 494.07M | EBITDA |
| 121.02M | 156.84M | 59.49M | 840.77M | 486.15M | 619.94M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 44.74M | 97.13M | -39.01M | 328.60M | 283.77M | 370.58M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 118.20M | 118.20M | 136.82M | 137.89M | 243.11M | 334.62M | Total Assets |
| 4.77B | 4.77B | 3.68B | 3.24B | 4.38B | 4.82B | Total Debt |
| 300.00M | 300.00M | 526.78M | 925.91M | 2.28B | 2.39B | Net Debt |
| 181.80M | 181.80M | 406.52M | 788.02M | 2.04B | 2.05B | Total Liabilities |
| 3.51B | 3.51B | 2.49B | 1.99B | 3.46B | 4.08B | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.18B | 1.25B | 919.98M | 735.99M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -378.70M | -668.99M | -97.23M | 1.26B | 675.85M | -476.27M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -367.65M | -659.62M | -91.72M | 1.26B | 680.46M | -468.04M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 7.89M | -152.39M | -136.60M | -7.18M | -104.66M | -18.02M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 378.29M | 809.69M | 208.95M | -1.35B | -667.31M | 718.96M |
Guild Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
14.16
Price Trends
13.43
Positive
12.91
Positive
13.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
56.45
Neutral
83.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.38, above the 50-day MA of 13.43, and above the 200-day MA of 13.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHLD.
Guild Holdings Risk Analysis
Guild Holdings disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guild Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
The geographic concentration of our loan originations may adversely affect our lending business, which would adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2024
Guild Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $929.36M | 12.75 | 6.01% | 5.18% | 4.33% | -11.14% | |
73 Outperform | $1.16B | 12.55 | 6.21% | 3.13% | 2.27% | -2.41% | |
72 Outperform | $1.01B | 11.31 | 5.51% | 4.63% | 1.38% | -10.46% | |
70 Outperform | $935.75M | 9.49 | 8.24% | 11.70% | 3.82% | -12.74% | |
64 Neutral | $12.85B | 9.81 | 7.59% | 16985.65% | 12.30% | -7.71% | |
57 Neutral | $880.90M | 20.39 | 3.71% | 3.53% | 42.92% | 64.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GHLD
Guild Holdings
14.16
0.21
1.51%
BRKL
Brookline Bancorp
10.43
2.54
32.19%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
17.29
3.63
26.57%
BBDC
Barings BDC
8.89
0.11
1.25%
CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp
23.02
5.58
32.00%
Guild Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Guild Holdings Stockholders Approve Key Amendments
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025
On May 27, 2025, Guild Holdings Company, a player in the financial sector, held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made. The stockholders approved an amendment to limit the monetary liability of the company’s officers, aligning with Delaware law, and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, they voted in favor of the compensation of the company’s named executive officers and elected two Class II directors to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting.
The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Guild Holdings Explores Strategic Options with Bayview
Neutral
May 23, 2025
On May 23, 2025, Guild Holdings Company announced that it is in preliminary discussions with Bayview Asset Management regarding a potential corporate transaction, which could include a significant minority investment, merger, or other business combinations. While Bayview currently owns 7.3% of Guild’s Class A common stock, no agreement has been reached, and there is no certainty that discussions will lead to a transaction. The announcement reflects Guild’s strategic exploration of opportunities to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.
The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Sell with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.