Guild Holdings (GHLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.24B
• Dividend Yield: 2.49%
• Average Volume (3M): 80.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 51.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.04
• Revenue Growth: 34.62%
• EPS Growth: -7.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,270
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.66
• Shares Outstanding: 21,916,409
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 43,816
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 80,481
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 47.39
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: 0.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(5.47% Upside)

Guild Holdings' overall stock score reflects a balance of mixed financial performance and technical indicators. The company's high leverage and liquidity issues are significant risks, while recent corporate events and strategic initiatives provide potential upside. The stock's current overvaluation adds to the cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

Guild announced it has agreed to be acquired by Bayview Asset Management for $20/share, representing a 27% premium to GHLD's tangible book value.

Business Model

If calibrated properly, Bayview's MSR portfolio could be leveraged by GHLD's successful direct-to-consumer origination model, which emphasizes a 'high touch' approach with the borrower.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

Beneath GHLD is still a wide and very scattered field of small originators and de-novo networks of loan officers, whose 'distributed retail' model can easily plug into a company like Guild's.

Guild Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guild Holdings Company, a mortgage company, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates approximately 260 branches with licenses in 49 states. It originates residential mortgages through retail and correspondent channels. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Guild Holdings makes money primarily through the origination, sale, and servicing of residential mortgage loans. The company generates revenue from loan origination fees, gain on sale of loans to the secondary market, and servicing income from managing the ongoing relationship with borrowers and collecting payments. Key revenue streams include the fees charged during the loan origination process, premiums received when selling loans to investors, and recurring servicing fees. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as interest rates, housing market conditions, and its ability to effectively manage loan servicing operations. Additionally, Guild Holdings may engage in strategic partnerships with real estate agents and homebuilders to drive loan origination volumes.

Guild Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guild Holdings exhibits mixed financial performance. Modest revenue growth is overshadowed by declining profitability margins, high leverage, and liquidity challenges. Despite improvements in free cash flow, the company's financial stability is at risk due to high debt levels and negative operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Guild Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a modest revenue growth rate of 3.26%, indicating a slight recovery from previous declines. However, the gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 90.65% in 2024 to 73.91% in TTM, suggesting increased costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin also dropped to 2.37% in TTM from 8.27% in 2024, reflecting reduced profitability. While EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, they remain positive, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, the company faces challenges in maintaining high profitability levels.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Guild Holdings indicates a high leverage position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.72 in TTM, up from 2.42 in 2024, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has decreased to 2.14% in TTM from 7.75% in 2024, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 24.19%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. While the company has a strong asset base, the increasing debt levels and declining ROE suggest potential financial stability concerns.

Cash Flow

Guild Holdings' cash flow statement reveals significant challenges. The operating cash flow is negative at -$648.68 million in TTM, and free cash flow is also negative, although it shows a notable improvement with a 74.09% growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that free cash flow is in line with net income. Despite improvements in free cash flow, the overall negative cash flow position raises concerns about liquidity and operational sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.09B	1.17B	721.55M	1.16B	1.56B	1.56B
Gross Profit	805.59M	1.06B	721.55M	473.93M	1.53B	1.68B
EBITDA	93.69M	156.84M	59.49M	840.77M	486.15M	619.94M
Net Income	25.81M	97.13M	-39.01M	328.60M	283.77M	370.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.03B	4.77B	3.68B	3.24B	4.38B	4.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	107.36M	118.20M	136.82M	137.89M	243.11M	334.62M
Total Debt	3.32B	3.03B	2.06B	1.58B	3.01B	2.39B
Total Liabilities	3.82B	3.51B	2.49B	1.99B	3.46B	4.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.22B	1.25B	1.18B	1.25B	919.98M	735.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-659.26M	-668.99M	-97.23M	1.26B	675.85M	-476.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-648.68M	-659.62M	-91.72M	1.26B	680.46M	-468.04M
Investing Cash Flow	469.05M	-152.39M	-136.60M	-7.18M	-104.66M	-18.02M
Financing Cash Flow	186.26M	809.69M	208.95M	-1.35B	-667.31M	718.96M

Guild Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.82, above the 50-day MA of 19.67, and above the 200-day MA of 14.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 71.09 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHLD.

Guild Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.88B	11.68	10.28%	3.72%	9.78%	1.27%
VEL	68 Neutral	$733.41M	8.73	15.02%	―	35.12%	25.28%
WD	67 Neutral	$2.90B	26.23	6.26%	3.13%	11.18%	24.94%
PFSI	67 Neutral	$5.69B	15.26	10.05%	1.09%	20.77%	96.22%
RKT	61 Neutral	$37.40B	68.51	>-0.01%	―	21.52%	-103.65%
GHLD	58 Neutral	$1.24B	51.05	2.12%	2.49%	34.62%	-7.94%
LDI	57 Neutral	$708.18M	―	-23.67%	―	6.60%	44.77%

Guild Holdings Corporate Events

Guild Holdings Declares Special Cash Dividend

Guild Holdings Company reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with total originations reaching $7.5 billion, a significant increase from previous quarters. The company achieved a net income of $18.7 million and an adjusted net income of $41.4 million, highlighting the success of its strategic focus on growth and efficiency. The board of directors also declared a special cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on September 2, 2025, indicating confidence in the company’s financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Guild Holdings Announces Merger with Gulf MSR HoldCo

On June 17, 2025, Guild Holdings Company entered into a Merger Agreement with Gulf MSR HoldCo, LLC and Gulf MSR Merger Sub Corporation, resulting in Guild Holdings becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf MSR HoldCo. The merger, unanimously approved by Guild Holdings’ board, involves converting each share of common stock into $20.00 in cash, with potential dividends not affecting this consideration. The merger is expected to complete in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals and other conditions. McCarthy Capital Mortgage Investors, LLC, holding a majority of voting power, has already consented to the merger, ensuring necessary stockholder approval. The merger is not subject to financing conditions, and termination fees are stipulated for both parties under certain circumstances.

Guild Holdings Announces Merger with Gulf MSR

On June 17, 2025, Guild Holdings Company announced a merger agreement with Gulf MSR Holdco, LLC, under which Guild will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf MSR. Guild stockholders will receive $20 per share in cash, a premium to its previous stock price. The transaction, valued at approximately $1.3 billion, will see Guild operate as a private entity in partnership with Lakeview Loan Servicing. The merger is expected to enhance Guild’s mortgage origination and servicing platform, providing growth opportunities without altering its current operations or brand. The transaction is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Guild Holdings Stockholders Approve Key Amendments

On May 27, 2025, Guild Holdings Company, a player in the financial sector, held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made. The stockholders approved an amendment to limit the monetary liability of the company’s officers, aligning with Delaware law, and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, they voted in favor of the compensation of the company’s named executive officers and elected two Class II directors to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting.