Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.71B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 388.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 52
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 54,038,590
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 473,530
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 388,499
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 356.14
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 229.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 232.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.72
• 1Y Price Target: $52.25
• Price Target Upside: 93.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▼(-7.30% Downside)

Upstream Bio, Inc. faces significant financial challenges with negative profitability and cash flow issues, which are partially offset by a strong balance sheet. The technical analysis shows positive price trends, but the valuation indicates potential overvaluation due to ongoing losses. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with low debt levels provides financial stability and flexibility, allowing for sustained investment in R&D and strategic initiatives.

Innovative Product Pipeline

The successful trial results for verekitug indicate a promising product pipeline, enhancing long-term growth prospects and competitive positioning in the biopharmaceutical market.

Strategic Collaborations

Strategic partnerships and collaborations provide additional revenue streams and resources, supporting sustainable growth and innovation in drug development.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flow trends highlight operational inefficiencies and reliance on external funding, which could hinder long-term financial sustainability if not addressed.

Profitability Issues

Ongoing profitability issues indicate operational challenges that may limit reinvestment capabilities and affect long-term growth unless strategic improvements are made.

Revenue Growth Concerns

Stagnant or declining revenue growth can signal market saturation or competitive pressures, potentially impacting the company's ability to scale and innovate.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with unmet medical needs. The company operates primarily in the biopharmaceutical sector, specializing in the research and development of novel treatments for various diseases, particularly in the fields of oncology and autoimmune disorders. Upstream Bio aims to leverage its proprietary technology platform to advance its pipeline of drug candidates, ultimately seeking to improve patient outcomes through targeted therapies.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstream Bio generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model includes several key streams: first, revenue from collaborations and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies that may involve milestone payments and royalties on sales of jointly developed products. Second, the company may receive funding from grants or research programs aimed at supporting innovative therapies. Additionally, once their products receive regulatory approval, Upstream Bio can generate significant income through direct sales of its therapeutics to healthcare providers and hospitals. Strategic collaborations, licensing agreements, and potential acquisitions also contribute to the overall financial health of the company, enhancing its revenue potential.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Upstream Bio, Inc.'s financial statements reflect a company in the growth phase, with significant operational and cash flow challenges. While the balance sheet is strong due to high equity, profitability issues and reliance on external financing present risks. Strategic improvements in profitability and cash flow management are essential for future stability.

Income Statement

Upstream Bio, Inc. has experienced minimal revenue growth of 95.45% from 2022 to 2023, but revenue decreased slightly by 0.42% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 100%, reflecting the absence of COGS. However, the company faces significant challenges with negative EBIT and net profit margins, indicating ongoing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The company displays a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0039 and an equity ratio of 97.55% as of 2024. Despite a high level of stockholders' equity, consistent net losses could erode this strength over time if not addressed.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow deteriorated from -$19.1 million in 2022 to -$59.7 million in 2024. The company's operating cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, highlighting cash flow challenges. Positive financing cash flow suggests reliance on external funding to manage operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.80M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
Gross Profit	2.77M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
EBITDA	-136.26M	-77.67M	-40.05M	-23.90M
Net Income	-122.23M	-62.81M	-20.54M	-23.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	391.19M	481.72M	117.20M	18.48M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	372.43M	470.45M	109.81M	17.05M
Total Debt	1.42M	1.83M	45.00K	94.00K
Total Liabilities	12.61M	11.87M	240.32M	124.63M
Stockholders Equity	378.58M	469.85M	-123.13M	-106.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-122.44M	-59.68M	-38.07M	-19.10M
Operating Cash Flow	-122.26M	-59.17M	-37.93M	-19.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-110.51M	-59.48M	-82.84M	-82.00K
Financing Cash Flow	271.99M	418.91M	129.55M	9.96M

Upstream Bio, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.77, below the 50-day MA of 27.12, and above the 200-day MA of 17.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPB.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	67 Neutral	$995.71M	36.14	14.03%	―	27.12%	―
BCAX	56 Neutral	$954.85M	-7.86	-26.64%	―	―	-103.95%
UPB	52 Neutral	$1.71B	-14.27	-40.80%	―	―	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PRME	50 Neutral	$772.59M	-2.82	-112.34%	―	647.13%	26.79%
ZBIO	47 Neutral	$1.06B	-4.76	-68.33%	―	―	-38.04%
BCYC	45 Neutral	$456.04M	-1.79	-34.63%	―	-23.43%	-9.84%