Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 546.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 52
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 53,909,428
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 614,703
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 546,864
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 72.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 72.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.63
• 1Y Price Target: $75.00
• Price Target Upside: 275.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▼(-9.86% Downside)

Upstream Bio, Inc. shows promising technical indicators and a strong corporate event with positive trial results, which are key strengths. However, financial performance and valuation concerns, including ongoing losses and reliance on external funding, present significant risks. The overall score reflects a balanced view of these factors.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Results

Upstream Bio's topline phase 2 results for verekitug in CRSwNP showed significant improvements in key secondary endpoints, exceeding expectations.

Investment Outlook

A constructive outlook on shares is maintained, with expectations for future data presentations and market potential.

Product Differentiation

Verekitug is the only therapy in development targeting the TSLP receptor, differentiating it from current biologic treatment options.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trial Challenges

There are nuances to measuring and analyzing change in NPS in clinical trials that make cross-trial comparisons difficult.

Financial Performance

Upstream Bio reported Q2 OpEx of ($45M), above the estimated ($36M).

Upcoming Data Expectations

Expectations are high for the upcoming Phase II readout in CRSwNP with verekitug, which is anticipated soon.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases that focuses on severe respiratory disorders. It develops verekitug, a monoclonal antibody that targets and inhibits the thymic stromal lymphopoietin receptor. The company also develops therapies to treat severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Upstream Bio, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstream Bio, Inc. primarily generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapies. The company may receive funding from venture capital investments, strategic partnerships, and licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, Upstream Bio might engage in collaborative research and development projects, which can provide milestone payments and royalties based on the success of its therapeutic products in clinical trials and eventual market approval. Government grants and incentives for biotechnology innovation could also contribute to their revenue streams.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Upstream Bio, Inc.'s financial statements reflect a company in the growth phase, with significant operational and cash flow challenges. While the balance sheet is strong due to high equity, profitability issues and reliance on external financing present risks. Strategic improvements in profitability and cash flow management are essential for future stability.

Income Statement

Upstream Bio, Inc. has experienced minimal revenue growth of 95.45% from 2022 to 2023, but revenue decreased slightly by 0.42% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 100%, reflecting the absence of COGS. However, the company faces significant challenges with negative EBIT and net profit margins, indicating ongoing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The company displays a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0039 and an equity ratio of 97.55% as of 2024. Despite a high level of stockholders' equity, consistent net losses could erode this strength over time if not addressed.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow deteriorated from -$19.1 million in 2022 to -$59.7 million in 2024. The company's operating cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, highlighting cash flow challenges. Positive financing cash flow suggests reliance on external funding to manage operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.72M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
Gross Profit	2.72M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
EBITDA	-121.42M	-77.67M	-40.05M	-23.90M
Net Income	-104.47M	-62.81M	-20.54M	-23.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	420.52M	481.72M	117.20M	18.48M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	393.58M	470.45M	109.81M	17.05M
Total Debt	1.56M	1.83M	45.00K	94.00K
Total Liabilities	11.78M	11.87M	240.32M	124.63M
Stockholders Equity	408.74M	469.85M	-123.13M	-106.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-114.54M	-59.68M	-38.07M	-19.10M
Operating Cash Flow	-113.98M	-59.17M	-37.93M	-19.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-157.29M	-59.48M	-82.84M	-82.00K
Financing Cash Flow	269.58M	418.91M	129.55M	9.96M

Upstream Bio, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.87, above the 50-day MA of 14.67, and above the 200-day MA of 12.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPB.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	66 Neutral	$702.54M	59.64	6.23%	―	24.49%	―
UPB	61 Neutral	$1.08B	―		―	―	―
ZBIO	58 Neutral	$863.68M	―	-88.40%	―	―	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.95B	-0.40	-42.50%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
BCAX	48 Neutral	$658.03M	―	-32.71%	―	―	―
BCYC	45 Neutral	$495.86M	―	-31.58%	―	-51.13%	7.57%
PRME	43 Neutral	$662.89M	―	-154.81%	―	739.42%	24.90%

Upstream Bio, Inc. Corporate Events

Upstream Bio Announces Positive Phase 2 Trial Results

On September 2, 2025, Upstream Bio announced positive results from the Phase 2 VIBRANT trial for verekitug in treating chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP). The trial demonstrated significant improvements in nasal polyp and congestion scores, with a favorable safety profile, suggesting potential advancements in CRSwNP treatment. The results may also indicate verekitug’s utility in other respiratory diseases, such as severe asthma, highlighting its potential to transform care in multiple indications.

Upstream Bio Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

Upstream Bio, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 10, 2025, where stockholders voted on two key proposals. The first proposal involved the election of Erez Chimovits and Marcella Kuhlman Ruddy as Class I directors, which was approved. The second proposal was the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, which was also ratified.