Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.68B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 388.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 52
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 54,038,590
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 473,530
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 388,499
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 356.14
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 569.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 575.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.69
• 1Y Price Target: $48.80
• Price Target Upside: 61.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▼(-17.49% Downside)

Upstream Bio, Inc. faces significant financial challenges with negative profitability and cash flow issues, which are partially offset by a strong balance sheet. The technical analysis shows positive price trends, but the valuation indicates potential overvaluation due to ongoing losses. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with low debt levels provides financial stability and flexibility, allowing for sustained investment in R&D and strategic initiatives.

Innovative Product Pipeline

The successful trial results for verekitug indicate a promising product pipeline, enhancing long-term growth prospects and competitive positioning in the biopharmaceutical market.

Strategic Collaborations

Strategic partnerships and collaborations provide additional revenue streams and resources, supporting sustainable growth and innovation in drug development.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flow trends highlight operational inefficiencies and reliance on external funding, which could hinder long-term financial sustainability if not addressed.

Profitability Issues

Ongoing profitability issues indicate operational challenges that may limit reinvestment capabilities and affect long-term growth unless strategic improvements are made.

Revenue Growth Concerns

Stagnant or declining revenue growth can signal market saturation or competitive pressures, potentially impacting the company's ability to scale and innovate.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with unmet medical needs. The company operates primarily in the biopharmaceutical sector, specializing in the research and development of novel treatments for various diseases, particularly in the fields of oncology and autoimmune disorders. Upstream Bio aims to leverage its proprietary technology platform to advance its pipeline of drug candidates, ultimately seeking to improve patient outcomes through targeted therapies.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstream Bio generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model includes several key streams: first, revenue from collaborations and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies that may involve milestone payments and royalties on sales of jointly developed products. Second, the company may receive funding from grants or research programs aimed at supporting innovative therapies. Additionally, once their products receive regulatory approval, Upstream Bio can generate significant income through direct sales of its therapeutics to healthcare providers and hospitals. Strategic collaborations, licensing agreements, and potential acquisitions also contribute to the overall financial health of the company, enhancing its revenue potential.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating fundamentals are weak: the company remains deeply unprofitable with expanding operating and net losses and highly negative margins, alongside worsening operating cash flow and free cash flow (elevated cash burn). This is partially offset by a conservatively levered balance sheet with very low debt and a sizable equity base, which reduces near-term financial risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is small but shows a sharp rebound versus the prior annual period, while reported gross profit is near revenue. However, the company remains deeply unprofitable: TTM operating loss and net loss expanded materially versus 2024, and profit margins are highly negative, indicating an elevated cost structure relative to current revenue scale.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered with very low debt relative to equity in both TTM and 2024, which reduces financial risk. Equity and total assets are sizable, supporting funding capacity, but returns on equity are negative in the most recent periods due to ongoing losses, signaling that capital is not currently generating positive earnings.

Cash Flow

Cash burn is significant: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are both deeply negative and have worsened versus 2024, implying increased spending and/or weaker working-capital dynamics. A positive point is that free cash flow broadly tracks net loss (cash burn roughly in line with accounting losses), but the overall trajectory still indicates elevated funding needs if the current run-rate persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.80M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
Gross Profit	2.77M	2.37M	2.38M	1.21M
EBITDA	-136.26M	-77.67M	-40.05M	-23.90M
Net Income	-122.23M	-62.81M	-20.54M	-23.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	391.19M	481.72M	117.20M	18.48M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	372.43M	470.45M	109.81M	17.05M
Total Debt	1.42M	1.83M	45.00K	94.00K
Total Liabilities	12.61M	11.87M	240.32M	124.63M
Stockholders Equity	378.58M	469.85M	-123.13M	-106.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-122.44M	-59.68M	-38.07M	-19.10M
Operating Cash Flow	-122.26M	-59.17M	-37.93M	-19.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-110.51M	-59.48M	-82.84M	-82.00K
Financing Cash Flow	271.99M	418.91M	129.55M	9.96M

Upstream Bio, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.50, above the 50-day MA of 28.98, and above the 200-day MA of 18.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPB.

Upstream Bio, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	67 Neutral	$959.74M	35.25	14.03%	―	27.12%	―
BCAX	56 Neutral	$920.34M	―	-26.64%	―	―	-103.95%
UPB	52 Neutral	$1.68B	-13.11	-40.80%	―	―	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ZBIO	51 Neutral	$986.09M	-4.01	-68.33%	―	―	-38.04%
PRME	50 Neutral	$687.75M	-2.58	-112.34%	―	647.13%	26.79%
BCYC	45 Neutral	$445.34M	-1.79	-34.63%	―	-23.43%	-9.84%