United Homes Group (UHG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $116.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 144.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: -6.20%
• EPS Growth: 24.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 175
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 21,839,762
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 129,947
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 144,444
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -10.15
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(85.19% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, net loss, and balance-sheet leverage/instability), with some offset from improving near-term technical momentum (positive MACD and strength vs. 20/50-day averages). Valuation is also constrained by losses (negative P/E) and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Focused business model

A clear, vertically integrated single-family homebuilding model focused on entry-level and move-up buyers supports repeatable operations: land acquisition, development, construction and sales. This specialization aids operational planning, inventory turnover and customer targeting over the medium term.

Operating cash generation

A strong operating cash flow relative to net income indicates the business converts sales into cash efficiently, providing staying power despite accounting losses. That cash generation can fund lot development, working capital and near-term deleveraging over the next several quarters.

Management incentive alignment

Linking executive bonuses to pretax profit, revenue and closings aligns management priorities with operational execution and financial outcomes. This structural incentive design should promote disciplined cost control, volume growth and margin focus across the 2026 performance period.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

A persistent mid-single-digit TTM revenue decline signals weakening demand or loss of market share. Reduced top-line scale impairs fixed-cost absorption and constrains the ability to restore margins, making multi-quarter profit recovery and investment in growth more difficult.

Sustained unprofitability

Ongoing net losses deplete retained earnings and limit internally available capital for land purchases and community openings. Even with positive operating cash flow, sustained unprofitability increases reliance on external financing or equity issuance, stressing strategic flexibility over months.

Balance-sheet leverage and instability

A history of negative equity and a high debt-to-equity profile raises refinancing and solvency risk. Leverage instability can elevate borrowing costs, restrict access to capital and force defensive actions (asset sales or dilution), undermining growth plans through the medium term.

United Homes Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United Homes Group (UHG) is a diversified real estate company that specializes in the development, construction, and sale of residential properties across various markets. The company operates primarily in the homebuilding sector, delivering a wide range of housing options, including single-family homes, townhouses, and condominiums. UHG focuses on creating sustainable communities by integrating modern design and innovative building practices into its projects, while also providing related services such as property management and real estate investment solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

United Homes Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of newly constructed residential properties. The company profits by purchasing land, developing it into residential communities, and selling homes at a markup. In addition to home sales, UHG also earns revenue from ancillary services, such as property management fees and the sale of warranties or home-related products. The company may engage in partnerships with local governments or other developers to enhance project financing and expand its market reach, which can further contribute to its earnings. Additionally, fluctuations in the housing market and interest rates can significantly impact the company's revenue, as demand for new homes directly influences sales volume.

United Homes Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak profitability and stability: revenue growth is negative (-6.25% TTM) with a net loss, and the balance sheet shows leverage/instability (negative equity in the past and negative ROE). Cash generation is a relative bright spot with strong operating cash flow vs. net income, but free cash flow growth is negative and volatile.

Income Statement

United Homes Group's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The TTM data indicates a negative revenue growth rate of -6.25% and a net loss, reflecting challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth and decreasing margins, suggesting instability in income generation.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning debt-to-equity ratio, with TTM data showing a negative equity position in the past. Although the company has managed to reduce its debt over time, the negative return on equity and fluctuating equity ratios indicate financial instability and potential risks in leveraging.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio in the TTM period, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting challenges in sustaining cash flow growth. Historical data shows fluctuating free cash flow growth, highlighting potential volatility in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	418.11M	463.71M	421.47M	477.05M	432.89M	327.25M
Gross Profit	75.27M	80.79M	79.73M	96.67M	87.84M	67.14M
EBITDA	-23.66M	8.51M	15.96M	73.20M	62.51M	37.43M
Net Income	-18.79M	46.91M	125.06M	69.49M	62.41M	38.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	293.11M	265.38M	298.65M	208.34M	202.26M	131.60M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.65M	22.63M	56.67M	12.24M	51.50M	29.18M
Total Debt	149.25M	120.30M	154.06M	121.80M	102.50M	74.82M
Total Liabilities	240.21M	198.51M	329.83M	149.34M	135.70M	97.43M
Stockholders Equity	52.91M	66.87M	-31.18M	59.00M	66.56M	34.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.16M	15.41M	28.06M	34.45M	57.91M	70.98M
Operating Cash Flow	6.42M	15.44M	28.22M	34.62M	58.32M	71.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.02M	-12.59M	-24.30M	-206.88K	-394.05K	-785.29K
Financing Cash Flow	-4.11M	-33.98M	40.51M	-73.68M	-35.60M	-51.42M

United Homes Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UHG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.77, below the 50-day MA of 1.46, and below the 200-day MA of 2.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UHG.

United Homes Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LEGH	72 Outperform	$495.28M	10.55	9.62%	―	10.25%	-10.52%
LGIH	65 Neutral	$1.16B	11.06	5.21%	―	-20.62%	-45.74%
CCS	63 Neutral	$1.83B	13.16	8.37%	1.99%	-6.28%	-31.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HOV	60 Neutral	$662.37M	15.56	7.69%	―	-0.84%	-76.30%
BZH	54 Neutral	$636.46M	70.24	3.67%	―	1.77%	-66.27%
UHG	51 Neutral	$116.45M	-6.21	-51.69%	―	-6.20%	24.90%

United Homes Group Corporate Events

United Homes Group Sets 2026 Executive Pay Framework

On January 13, 2026, United Homes Group’s board-level Compensation Committee approved a 2026 executive compensation framework that sets base salaries and performance-based cash bonus opportunities for its senior leadership, including the named executive officers. Under the plan, Executive Chairman Michael Nieri will receive a base salary of $608,000 with no cash bonus opportunity listed, while CEO and President Jack Micenko and CFO Keith Feldman will receive base salaries of $650,000 and $400,000, respectively, each with target cash bonuses equal to 100% of their base salaries. The bonus structure for Micenko and Feldman ties payouts to the company’s 2026 performance on pretax profit, revenue, and closings, with payout levels ranging from 50% of the applicable bonus portion at threshold performance to 125% at maximum performance, aligning executive incentives with the company’s financial results and operational scale and maintaining consistency with the prior year’s compensation framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (UHG) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Homes Group stock, see the UHG Stock Forecast page.

United Homes Group Directors Resign on November 7, 2025

United Homes Group announced the resignation of directors Nikki Haley and James M. Pirrello, effective November 7, 2025. The company is reviewing candidates to replace them, while existing directors have agreed to stay on temporarily to ensure compliance with Nasdaq rules. Additionally, on November 6, 2025, the company entered into retention agreements with key executives, offering them a cash retention amount equal to their 2025 base salaries, with conditions for repayment if they leave before March 31, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (UHG) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Homes Group stock, see the UHG Stock Forecast page.