Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.54B
• Dividend Yield: 1.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 970.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 14.40%
• EPS Growth: 12.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 95,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 1.28
• Shares Outstanding: 65,925,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,075,143
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 970,851
• PEG Ratio: -4.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.89
• P/FCF Ratio: 32.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.16
• 1Y Price Target: $194.26
• Price Target Upside: 13.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.29
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.54B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $194.00 ▲(13.09% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

TXRH scores positively on fundamentals—strong revenue growth and excellent cash generation—driving most of the rating. The score is held back by higher 2025 leverage and earnings/margin pressure highlighted on the latest call (commodity and cost headwinds), plus weaker near-term technical momentum and a relatively premium P/E that raises execution risk.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Texas Roadhouse has consistently generated strong operating cash flow and improving free cash flow, with FCF covering net income in 2025. Durable cash conversion supports reinvestment, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks, providing financial flexibility to fund growth and weather cyclical restaurant pressures.

Unit economics & expansion

High average unit volumes and targeted mid‑teen IRR on new restaurants indicate strong unit economics. A disciplined rollout (company openings plus franchise acquisitions) leverages proven prototypes and supports scalable growth while preserving returns, a durable advantage in casual dining expansion.

Brand & consistent comps

A long track record of comparable sales growth signals sustained brand loyalty and repeat visitation. Consistent traffic and pricing power underpin revenue durability, helping the company better absorb cost cycles and support long-term unit economics and steady consumer demand.

Negative Factors

Commodity-driven margin pressure

Beef-driven commodity inflation is large, front-loaded in H1 2026 and guided near ~7% for the year. Given menu mix and to‑go trends, pricing may not fully offset higher COGS, creating sustained restaurant margin percent pressure and reducing operating leverage over multiple quarters.

Rising leverage

A meaningful increase in debt in 2025 (including a $50M draw) raises balance‑sheet risk versus prior years. With sizable planned capex and acquisitions, higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to margin deterioration or interest cost changes, limiting buffer during adverse cycles.

Margin & EPS compression with rising costs

Recent quarter showed notable EPS and restaurant margin percentage declines, driven by mix, to‑go dynamics, insurance reserves and higher G&A. With wage inflation and elevated operating expenses forecasted, sustaining prior profitability levels will require continued execution on pricing, contracting and productivity.

Texas Roadhouse Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Texas Roadhouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates and franchises restaurants under the Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers names. As of December 28, 2021, it operated 566 domestic restaurants and 101 franchise restaurants. Texas Roadhouse, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Texas Roadhouse generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages in its restaurants. The company's revenue model is built around its casual dining experience, which encourages repeat visits and customer loyalty. Key revenue streams include dine-in services, takeout, and catering options. Additionally, Texas Roadhouse benefits from its strategic focus on high-quality ingredients and value pricing, which attract a broad customer base. The company also engages in promotional campaigns and seasonal menu offerings to drive sales. While Texas Roadhouse does not typically rely on significant external partnerships, its strong brand recognition and reputation help maintain a loyal customer base, contributing to consistent earnings growth.

Texas Roadhouse Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and materially improved profitability vs. 2020, supported by robust and rising operating cash flow and improved free-cash-flow generation. Offsets include a 2025 step-down in net income despite higher revenue and a notable 2025 leverage increase (plus some inconsistent/missing latest-period fields) that raises balance-sheet risk and reduces flexibility if margins stay pressured.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly from 2020 to 2024, with continued growth into 2025, indicating solid demand and unit/economic momentum. Profitability has improved materially versus 2020, with healthier operating and net margins through 2021–2024, supporting resilient earnings power. The key watch-out is a step-down in net income in 2025 despite higher revenue, and reported operating margin data for 2025 appears inconsistent versus prior years, adding some uncertainty to year-to-year margin interpretation.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looked reasonable and improving through 2024 (debt at well under 1x equity), alongside strong returns for a restaurant operator. However, 2025 shows a sharp jump in total debt while equity rises only modestly, implying meaningfully higher balance-sheet risk and reduced flexibility if operating trends soften. Also, some 2025 leverage/return fields are missing or appear inconsistent, which limits confidence in a clean read on the latest-period balance-sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow is robust and has generally trended upward, and free cash flow improved substantially by 2024 and again in 2025. Cash conversion is solid, with free cash flow covering net income well in 2025 and improving versus weaker conversion in 2022–2023. The main weakness is volatility in free-cash-flow growth (notably dips in 2022–2023), suggesting sensitivity to reinvestment cycles and working-capital swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.88B	5.37B	4.63B	4.01B	3.46B
Gross Profit	729.92M	947.26M	735.08M	653.63M	606.50M
EBITDA	687.40M	695.90M	507.47M	459.03M	424.69M
Net Income	405.55M	433.59M	304.88M	269.82M	245.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.55B	3.19B	2.79B	2.53B	2.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	134.71M	245.22M	104.25M	173.86M	335.64M
Total Debt	1.89B	854.47M	770.89M	753.36M	744.84M
Total Liabilities	2.07B	1.82B	1.64B	1.50B	1.44B
Stockholders Equity	1.46B	1.36B	1.14B	1.01B	1.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	342.07M	399.29M	217.95M	265.60M	268.13M
Operating Cash Flow	730.07M	753.63M	564.98M	511.73M	468.83M
Investing Cash Flow	-480.52M	-336.90M	-367.17M	-263.73M	-195.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-360.07M	-275.75M	-267.43M	-409.77M	-301.23M

Texas Roadhouse Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 171.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXRH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 171.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 181.85, below the 50-day MA of 181.87, and below the 200-day MA of 176.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TXRH.

Texas Roadhouse Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	69 Neutral	$3.14B	15.71	33.74%	2.11%	4.90%	27.14%
TXRH	67 Neutral	$11.54B	32.67	28.77%	1.63%	14.40%	12.45%
DPZ	67 Neutral	$13.54B	23.81	―	1.63%	3.92%	4.98%
EAT	64 Neutral	$6.11B	13.13	177.80%	―	23.18%	138.17%
CAVA	64 Neutral	$9.24B	109.16	8.64%	―	23.93%	153.50%
WING	62 Neutral	$6.50B	41.12	―	0.45%	15.56%	79.02%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Texas Roadhouse Corporate Events

Texas Roadhouse Adds White Castle CEO to Board

On March 5, 2026, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. appointed Lisa (Elizabeth K.) Ingram, chief executive officer and chair of White Castle System, Inc., to its board of directors, determining that she qualifies as an independent director under Nasdaq rules and noting there were no special arrangements underlying her selection. Ingram brings deep restaurant industry, marketing and governance experience from leading White Castle’s restaurant and consumer packaged goods businesses and from board roles at M/I Homes and OhioHealth, a move expected to strengthen Texas Roadhouse’s strategic oversight and people-first culture as it continues its domestic and international expansion in casual dining.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXRH) stock is a Buy with a $202.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Roadhouse stock, see the TXRH Stock Forecast page.

Texas Roadhouse Hikes Dividend Despite Earnings Pressure

Texas Roadhouse reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rising 3.1% to $1.48 billion and full-year revenue up 9.4% to $5.88 billion, but income from operations and net income declined for both periods, reflecting commodity and labor inflation and the absence of the extra 2024 week. Comparable restaurant sales increased 4.2% in the quarter and 4.9% for the year, average weekly sales and to-go volumes improved, and the company opened 28 company units and four franchises in 2025 while spending heavily on capex, franchise buyouts, dividends, and share repurchases.

On February 18, 2026, the board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.75 per share and approved its payment on March 31, 2026, even as earnings per share slipped 26.1% in the quarter and 5.8% for the year. Management highlighted record franchise acquisitions, additional store openings, and early 2026 same-store sales growth of 8.2%, alongside a planned April menu price increase of about 1.9%, while also extending a $100,000-per-quarter stipend for Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer Keith Humpich through June 30, 2026 to support the CFO transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXRH) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Roadhouse stock, see the TXRH Stock Forecast page.

Texas Roadhouse updates executive compensation with performance incentives

On December 30, 2025, the Compensation Committee of Texas Roadhouse’s board approved a comprehensive adjustment to 2026 compensation for its principal executive, financial, accounting officers and other named executives, aligning base salary increases with parameters used for support center employees. Effective January 8, 2026, annual base salaries were raised, led by CEO Jerry Morgan at $1.475 million, and the committee also set 2026 short-term cash incentive targets tied to pre-tax profits, comparable restaurant traffic growth and store week growth, with payouts ranging from zero up to 200% of target for most executives and 150% of target for one executive. The committee further authorized sizable equity awards, including service-based restricted stock units vesting in 2027, performance-based restricted stock units vesting in 2029 contingent on achieving earnings-per-share growth of 33% versus 2025 and pre-tax profit goals, and long-term service stock units vesting between 2028 and 2031 with post-vesting sale restrictions for certain officers. The package underscores Texas Roadhouse’s emphasis on performance-linked and long-duration equity incentives to retain leadership, align executives with shareholder value creation, and support the company’s growth and profitability objectives over the medium and long term.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXRH) stock is a Hold with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Roadhouse stock, see the TXRH Stock Forecast page.