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TSMC (TSM)
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TSMC (TSM) AI Stock Analysis

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TSM

TSMC

(NYSE:TSM)

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Outperform 81 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$341.00
▲(19.02% Upside)
TSMC's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its high score. While technical indicators show a positive trend, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The company's strategic focus on advanced technologies and AI positions it well for future growth, despite challenges from overseas expansions and foreign exchange impacts.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
TSMC's consistent revenue growth highlights its strong market demand and effective business model, ensuring long-term financial stability and expansion.
Advanced Technology Leadership
Leadership in advanced technology nodes like 3nm strengthens TSMC's competitive edge, attracting high-value clients and sustaining market dominance.
Strong Balance Sheet
A strong balance sheet with low leverage enhances TSMC's financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and resilience against market fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Overseas Expansion Challenges
The margin impact from overseas expansions could strain profitability, posing a risk to TSMC's financial performance as it scales operations globally.
Foreign Exchange Rate Impact
Currency fluctuations can erode profitability, impacting TSMC's financial results and complicating financial planning and forecasting.
Cash Flow Decline
Declining cash flow growth could limit TSMC's ability to fund new projects and investments, potentially affecting future growth and innovation capacity.

TSMC (TSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TSMC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides a range of wafer fabrication processes, including processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also offers customer and engineering support services; manufactures masks; and invests in technology start-up companies; researches, designs, develops, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells color filters; and provides investment services. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
How the Company Makes MoneyTSMC generates revenue primarily through its semiconductor fabrication services. The company operates on a business model where it manufactures chips for clients who design their own semiconductors, charging them based on the complexity and volume of the chips produced. Key revenue streams include contracts with major technology firms such as Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, which account for a significant portion of TSMC's sales. Additionally, TSMC invests heavily in research and development to enhance its manufacturing processes and technologies, allowing it to offer state-of-the-art production capabilities, including advanced nodes like 5nm and 3nm processes. Partnerships with leading technology companies also bolster TSMC's earnings, as it plays a critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain, ensuring its clients have access to the latest manufacturing technologies. The increasing demand for high-performance chips in various sectors, including AI and IoT, further contributes to TSMC's revenue growth.

TSMC Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue By Technology
Revenue By Technology
Breaks down revenue by technology type, providing insight into which innovations are most profitable and where the company might invest in further development.
Chart InsightsTSMC's shift towards advanced technologies is evident, with 3nm and 5nm processes driving significant revenue growth, now comprising a substantial portion of total revenue. This aligns with the earnings call highlighting strong demand in HPC and smartphones, despite challenges like foreign exchange impacts. The company's strategic global expansion and investment in advanced fabs underscore its commitment to maintaining technological leadership. However, margin pressures from overseas operations and currency fluctuations pose ongoing risks, which TSMC aims to mitigate through scale and innovation.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

TSMC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 16, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in the third quarter with notable revenue and margin improvements. TSMC is optimistic about future growth driven by AI demand and advanced technology contributions, although it faces challenges from overseas fab dilutions and foreign exchange impacts.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Third quarter revenue increased 10.1% sequentially in U.S. dollar terms to $33.1 billion, slightly ahead of guidance.
Improved Profit Margins
Gross margin increased 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 59.5%, and operating margin rose 1.0 percentage points to 50.6%.
Advanced Technology Revenue Contribution
3-nanometer process technology contributed 23% of wafer revenue, with advanced technologies accounting for 74% of wafer revenue.
Positive AI Demand Outlook
TSMC sees robust AI-related demand, expecting full-year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-30s percent year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms.
Global Manufacturing Expansion
Progress in overseas fabs in Arizona, Japan, and Germany, with plans to expand advanced packaging facilities.
Negative Updates
Challenges from Overseas Fabs
Gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of overseas fabs is expected to be 2% to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% later.
Decreased Revenue in DCE Platform
DCE revenue decreased 20% to account for 1% of total revenue.
Foreign Exchange Rate Impact
Unfavorable foreign exchange rate partially offset the benefits of cost improvements and higher capacity utilization.
Company Guidance
During TSMC's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025. TSMC expects revenue to range between USD 32.2 billion and USD 33.4 billion, which would represent a 1% sequential decrease but a 22% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Gross margin is projected to be between 59% and 61%, while operating margin is anticipated to be between 49% and 51%. The guidance assumes an exchange rate of USD 1 to TWD 30.6. This outlook reflects TSMC's confidence in continued strong demand for its leading-edge process technologies, particularly in the AI sector, despite external uncertainties such as tariff policies.

TSMC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TSMC demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, high profit margins, and a solid balance sheet. The company's efficient cash flow generation supports its growth and operational strategies, positioning it well in the semiconductor industry.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
TSMC demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth of 8.29% in TTM, supported by high gross profit margin of 58.58% and net profit margin of 42.92%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 51.06% and 71.02% respectively, indicating efficient operational management and profitability.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is strong at 33.60%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 65.39%, suggesting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a free cash flow growth rate of 2.77% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.57, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.43 highlights efficient cash conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.63T2.89T2.16T2.26T1.59T1.34T
Gross Profit2.14T1.62T1.18T1.35T819.54B711.13B
EBITDA2.71T1.98T1.52T1.59T1.09T918.55B
Net Income1.57T1.16T851.74B992.92B592.36B510.74B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.35T6.69T5.53T4.96T3.73T2.76T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.75T2.49T1.71T1.59T1.20T799.89B
Total Debt956.66B1.05T956.26B888.17B753.63B367.79B
Total Liabilities2.32T2.41T2.08T2.05T1.57T924.84B
Stockholders Equity5.00T4.24T3.43T2.90T2.15T1.83T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow889.87B870.17B286.57B520.97B262.72B301.19B
Operating Cash Flow2.17T1.83T1.24T1.61T1.11T822.67B
Investing Cash Flow-1.09T-864.84B-906.12B-1.19T-836.37B-505.78B
Financing Cash Flow-433.39B-346.30B-204.89B-200.24B136.61B-88.62B

TSMC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price286.50
Price Trends
50DMA
279.80
Positive
100DMA
256.62
Positive
200DMA
219.88
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.99
Positive
RSI
45.99
Neutral
STOCH
16.02
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 286.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 297.10, above the 50-day MA of 279.80, and above the 200-day MA of 219.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSM.

TSMC Risk Analysis

TSMC disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TSMC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TSMC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$1.22T30.1034.89%1.01%39.73%
81
Outperform
$399.61B39.0551.72%0.69%24.91%39.95%
80
Outperform
$415.98B117.485.32%31.83%80.45%
77
Outperform
$186.04B27.8435.64%0.75%6.70%-5.95%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
$173.92B3,597.170.19%-1.49%
58
Neutral
$19.70B-1.01%-0.65%-114.26%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSM
TSMC
286.50
94.55
49.26%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
233.54
86.19
58.49%
AMAT
Applied Materials
230.07
43.45
23.28%
ASML
ASML Holding
1,016.96
351.05
52.72%
INTC
Intel
38.13
13.08
52.22%
GFS
GlobalFoundries Inc
34.08
-8.62
-20.19%

TSMC Corporate Events

TSMC Announces Key Financial and Operational Updates for September 2025
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, TSMC reported several significant changes and activities for September 2025, including alterations in the shareholdings of its board members and major shareholders, asset acquisitions and dispositions, capital appropriations, issuance of unsecured bonds, and the cancellation of common shares. These developments reflect TSMC’s ongoing strategic adjustments and financial maneuvers, which are likely to impact its operational efficiency and market positioning.

TSMC Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results with Significant Growth
Oct 16, 2025

On October 16, 2025, TSMC reported its third-quarter financial results, showcasing a significant year-over-year growth with a 30.3% increase in revenue and a 39.1% rise in net income. The company achieved consolidated revenue of NT$989.92 billion and a net income of NT$452.30 billion, with a diluted earnings per share of NT$17.44. The results were driven by strong demand for TSMC’s advanced process technologies, particularly in the 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer segments, which accounted for a substantial portion of the wafer revenue. The company’s robust performance is expected to continue into the fourth quarter of 2025, with projected revenues between US$32.2 billion and US$33.4 billion.

TSMC Reports Strong Revenue Growth Despite Monthly Dip
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, TSMC reported its net revenue for September 2025, revealing a slight decrease of 1.4% from August 2025, but a significant increase of 31.4% compared to September 2024. The cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2025 showed a robust growth of 36.4% year-over-year, highlighting the company’s strong market performance and its strategic importance in the semiconductor industry.

TSMC Announces Strategic Investments and Shareholding Changes in August 2025
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, TSMC reported several significant changes and approvals impacting its operations. In August 2025, there were changes in the shareholdings of TSMC’s board of directors and executive officers, with a slight increase in shares held by Vice President Jonathan Lee. TSMC also approved substantial capital appropriations for machinery equipment and real estate, totaling over US$20 billion, indicating a strategic investment in advanced technology and capacity expansion. Additionally, TSMC acquired NT$13.5 billion in fixed-income investments, reflecting its ongoing asset management strategy.

TSMC Arizona Announces Leadership Changes Effective October 2025
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, TSMC Arizona Corporation, a key subsidiary of TSMC, announced significant leadership changes. Y.L. Wang will step down as Director, and Ray Chuang will assume the roles of both Director and CEO, effective October 1, 2025. These changes are part of a strategic realignment within the subsidiary, potentially impacting its operations and positioning within the industry.

TSMC Reports Strong Revenue Growth in August 2025
Sep 10, 2025

On September 10, 2025, TSMC reported its net revenue for August 2025, which reached approximately NT$335.77 billion. This figure represents a 3.9% increase from July 2025 and a significant 33.8% rise from August 2024. The cumulative revenue from January to August 2025 was NT$2,431.98 billion, marking a 37.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024. These results highlight TSMC’s robust growth trajectory, reinforcing its strong position in the semiconductor industry and signaling positive implications for its stakeholders.

TSMC Adjusts Q1 2025 Cash Dividend Per Share
Sep 2, 2025

On May 13, 2025, TSMC’s Board of Directors approved a cash dividend distribution of NT$129,663,077,605, equating to NT$5.00 per common share for the first quarter of 2025. However, due to changes in the number of common shares outstanding, the dividend per share has been slightly adjusted to NT$5.00001754, with the payment scheduled for October 9, 2025. This adjustment reflects TSMC’s commitment to maintaining shareholder value despite minor fluctuations in share numbers.

TSMC Announces Board of Directors Change Effective September 2025
Sep 2, 2025

On September 1, 2025, TSMC announced a change in its Board of Directors as Mr. Chun-Hsien Yeh was appointed by the National Development Fund, Executive Yuan of Taiwan, to replace Mr. Chin-Ching Liu. This change reflects TSMC’s ongoing adjustments in its governance structure, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relationships.

TSMC Announces Key Financial Activities and Shareholding Changes for July 2025
Aug 25, 2025

In August 2025, TSMC reported several key changes and activities for July 2025, including modifications in the shareholdings of its board members and significant shareholders, as well as the acquisition and disposition of fixed-income investments totaling NT$10.2 billion and NT$0.4 billion respectively. Additionally, TSMC issued unsecured bonds worth NT$12.3 billion with varied maturity periods and interest rates, reflecting strategic financial maneuvers to support its operations and market positioning.

TSMC Releases Mid-Year Financial Statements for 2025
Aug 14, 2025

On August 14, 2025, TSMC released its consolidated financial statements for the six months ended June 30, 2025, and 2024, along with an independent auditors’ review report. The review, conducted by Deloitte & Touche, concluded that the financial statements fairly present the company’s financial position and performance in accordance with the relevant regulations and standards. This release provides stakeholders with a transparent view of TSMC’s financial health and operational performance, reinforcing its position in the semiconductor industry.

TSMC Global Approves $10 Billion Capital Increase
Aug 12, 2025

On August 12, 2025, TSMC Global Ltd., a subsidiary of TSMC, approved a capital increase of up to US$10 billion from its parent company, subject to regulatory approval. This strategic move is expected to enhance TSMC’s financial capabilities, potentially strengthening its market position and benefiting its stakeholders.

TSMC Announces Q2 2025 Financials and Strategic Investments
Aug 12, 2025

On August 12, 2025, TSMC’s Board of Directors approved several key resolutions during their meeting. These included the approval of the second quarter 2025 financial results, which reported a consolidated revenue of NT$933.79 billion and a net income of NT$398.27 billion. The Board also approved a cash dividend distribution and significant capital appropriations to expand capacity and technology development, amounting to approximately US$20.66 billion. Additionally, the issuance of unsecured corporate bonds up to NT$60 billion was approved to finance capacity expansion and green initiatives, alongside a capital injection of up to US$10 billion into TSMC Global to reduce foreign exchange hedging costs.

TSMC Reports Strong Revenue Growth in July 2025
Aug 8, 2025

On August 8, 2025, TSMC announced its net revenue for July 2025, reporting a consolidated revenue of approximately NT$323.17 billion. This represents a 22.5% increase from June 2025 and a 25.8% increase from July 2024. The revenue for the first seven months of 2025 totaled NT$2,096.21 billion, marking a 37.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024. These figures highlight TSMC’s robust growth and strong market positioning, reflecting its significant impact on the semiconductor industry and positive implications for its stakeholders.

TSMC Appoints New Treasurer for Global Subsidiary
Aug 1, 2025

On August 2, 2025, TSMC announced the appointment of Alex Huang as the new Treasurer of TSMC Global Ltd., a significant subsidiary of the company. This change in leadership is expected to impact the financial management and strategic direction of TSMC Global Ltd., potentially influencing the company’s operations and its stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 26, 2025