The earnings call highlighted strong growth in advanced technologies and high-performance computing, driven by robust AI demand and global expansion efforts. However, challenges remain with overseas fab costs and geopolitical risks. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook for 2025 is positive with significant growth expected.

Company Guidance

During the Q4 2024 earnings call, TSMC provided detailed guidance for Q1 2025, projecting a revenue range between USD 25 billion and USD 25.8 billion, which reflects a 5.5% sequential decline but a 34.7% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Gross margin is expected to be between 57% and 59%, while the operating margin is projected to be between 46.5% and 48.5%. The effective tax rate for 2025 is anticipated to be between 16% and 17%. TSMC also outlined its 2025 capital expenditure plans, with a budget of USD 38 billion to USD 42 billion, predominantly allocated to advanced process technologies. The company emphasized its focus on maintaining a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher, despite anticipated cost pressures from overseas expansion and inflationary impacts.

Strong Revenue and Growth in Advanced Technologies

Fourth quarter revenue increased 14.3% sequentially, driven by demand for 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies. Advanced technologies accounted for 74% of wafer revenue in Q4 and 69% for the full year, up from 58% in 2023.

Record Growth in High-Performance Computing (HPC) Segment

HPC revenue increased 19% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 53% of Q4 revenue. On a full-year basis, HPC increased 58% year-on-year.

Improved Financial Performance

Full-year revenue increased 30% in USD terms to $90 billion. Gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 56.1%, and EPS increased by 39.9% to TWD 45.25.

Positive Outlook for 2025

Expected revenue growth of close to mid-20% in USD terms for 2025, driven by AI demand and a mild recovery in other segments.

Expansion in Global Manufacturing

Successful ramp-up of the Arizona fab with production in Q4 2024, and ongoing expansion plans in Japan and Europe.

AI-Related Demand Surges

AI accelerator revenue accounted for mid-teens percent of 2024 total revenue, with expectations to double in 2025.

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TSMC (TSM) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

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TSM Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
Apr 17, 2025	2025 (Q1)	2.07 / -	1.345	―	―	―
Jan 16, 2025	2024 (Q4)	2.19 / 2.19	1.458	50.48% (+0.74)
Oct 17, 2024	2024 (Q3)	1.79 / 1.95	1.258	55.01% (+0.69)
Jul 18, 2024	2024 (Q2)	1.41 / 1.47	1.128	29.96% (+0.34)
Apr 18, 2024	2024 (Q1)	1.30 / 1.34	1.303	3.22% (+0.04)
Jan 18, 2024	2023 (Q4)	1.39 / 1.46	1.874	-22.20% (-0.42)
Oct 19, 2023	2023 (Q3)	1.16 / 1.26	1.698	-25.91% (-0.44)
Jul 20, 2023	2023 (Q2)	1.07 / 1.13	1.529	-26.23% (-0.40)
Apr 20, 2023	2023 (Q1)	1.21 / 1.30	1.349	-3.41% (-0.05)
Jan 12, 2023	2022 (Q4)	1.79 / 1.87	1.16	61.55% (+0.71)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

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TSM Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
Jan 16, 2025	$206.80	$214.79	+3.86%
Oct 17, 2024	$187.01	$205.32	+9.79%
Jul 18, 2024	$170.28	$170.94	+0.39%
Apr 18, 2024	$137.94	$131.23	-4.86%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.

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