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Intel (INTC)
NASDAQ:INTC
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Intel (INTC) AI Stock Analysis

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INTC

Intel

(NASDAQ:INTC)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(1.45%Upside)
Intel's overall stock score reflects significant profitability and valuation challenges, with negative earnings and cash flow issues. While the earnings call provided some positive guidance, macroeconomic uncertainties and competitive pressures remain significant risks.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Intel posted a fairly positive June quarter, with about a $930 million upside in revenue and a $0.09 beat on EPS, excluding one-time charges.
Operating Margin
Intel made a significant improvement in its segment operating margin, growing to 16.1% from 13.9% quarter-over-quarter, and from just 6.4% last year.
Strategic Restructuring
Intel's plan to spin off its Network & Edge Group as a standalone company aims to streamline operations and improve the balance sheet.
Negative Factors
Foundry Business Challenges
Continued losses in Intel's merchant foundry business, losing roughly a billion per quarter, contribute to a Neutral rating.
Gross Margin Pressure
There is risk in the second half due to customer pull-ins and gross margins are expected to continue declining.
Market Competition
Intel continues to lose market share to AMD in the server and Data Center market, affecting its competitive edge.

Intel (INTC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Intel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIntel Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of computer products and technologies worldwide. The company operates through CCG, DCG, IOTG, Mobileye, NSG, PSG, and All Other segments. It offers platform products, such as central processing units and chipsets, and system-on-chip and multichip packages; and non-platform or adjacent products, including accelerators, boards and systems, connectivity products, graphics, and memory and storage products. The company also provides high-performance compute solutions for targeted verticals and embedded applications for retail, industrial, and healthcare markets; and solutions for assisted and autonomous driving comprising compute platforms, computer vision and machine learning-based sensing, mapping and localization, driving policy, and active sensors. In addition, it offers workload-optimized platforms and related products for cloud service providers, enterprise and government, and communications service providers. The company serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, and cloud service providers. Intel Corporation has a strategic partnership with MILA to develop and apply advances in artificial intelligence methods for enhancing the search in the space of drugs. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntel makes money primarily through the sale of its semiconductor products, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from the sales of microprocessors used in personal computers and data centers. The company operates through several business units, including the Client Computing Group, which focuses on consumer and commercial PC platforms, and the Data Center Group, which provides high-performance processors for server, network, and storage platforms. Additionally, Intel generates revenue through its Internet of Things Group, offering processors and system-on-chip solutions for IoT applications, and the Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which develops memory and storage products. Intel also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other technology firms to enhance its product offerings and market reach, contributing to its revenue streams.

Intel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units, highlighting which segments drive Intel's growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Chart InsightsIntel's revenue dynamics reveal a mixed picture. While the Data Center segment struggles with competition from ARM, the Client Computing segment shows resilience, likely buoyed by strong Raptor Lake sales. Foundry Services, despite ongoing losses, show potential for growth, aligning with strategic priorities outlined by new leadership. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and capacity constraints pose risks. The earnings call highlights a focus on cost reduction and cultural transformation, suggesting a strategic pivot to bolster competitiveness and operational efficiency.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Intel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.53%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call revealed positive revenue performance and strategic progress in organizational restructuring and foundry strategy. However, significant challenges remain in managing gross margins, server business competition, and CapEx constraints, leading to a mixed outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Exceeds Guidance
Revenue for Q2 2025 came in at $12.9 billion, surpassing the high end of the guidance range, driven by strong demand in client and data center segments.
Organizational Restructuring Progress
Intel completed actions to achieve a year-end target of 75,000 employees, reducing management layers by approximately 50% to streamline operations.
Foundry Strategy and Intel 18A Progress
Intel 18A reached key milestones with the start of production wafers in Arizona, preparing for a Q4 launch of Panther Lake, with a focus on building trust with customers.
Cost Management and Cash Flow Improvement
Intel lowered its CapEx guidance by $5 billion year-to-date and raised $900 million through Mobileye offering, aiming to deleverage the balance sheet.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Impacted by Impairments
Q2 non-GAAP gross margin was 29.7% due to $800 million in noncash impairments and accelerated depreciation, alongside $200 million in one-time period costs.
Server Business Challenges
Server ASPs decreased by 8% year-over-year due to competitive pressures, with expectations of continued challenges in high-performance server market segments.
CapEx Constraints and Project Delays
Intel decided not to continue manufacturing projects in Germany and Poland, and slowed construction in Ohio to align spending with market demand.
Company Guidance
During the call, Intel provided several financial metrics and forward-looking guidance. In Q2 2025, Intel achieved a revenue of $12.9 billion, surpassing the high end of their guidance range. The non-GAAP gross margin was reported at 29.7%, and non-GAAP EPS was minus $0.10, impacted by approximately $800 million in noncash impairment charges and $200 million in onetime period costs. Looking ahead to Q3, Intel anticipates revenue between $12.6 billion and $13.6 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin around 36% and breakeven EPS. For the fiscal year 2025, Intel aims to reduce operating expenses to $17 billion and plans further reductions to $16 billion in 2026. The company is also targeting a net capital expenditure of $8 billion to $11 billion for the year. Intel is focused on improving its balance sheet, emphasizing cash flow generation through operating leverage and capital spending management. Additionally, the company has already lowered its CapEx guidance by approximately $5 billion year-to-date and expects further reductions in 2026.

Intel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Intel faces significant profitability challenges with negative net income and declining revenue. Despite a solid capital structure with manageable leverage, cash flow issues persist with negative free cash flow, raising concerns over liquidity and operational cash generation.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Intel's TTM revenue has slightly decreased from the previous year, indicating a revenue contraction trend. The gross profit margin for TTM stands at 29.76%, showing a substantial decline from historical levels, reflecting deteriorating cost management or pricing pressures. The net profit margin is deeply negative at -38.65%, highlighting significant profitability challenges, further accentuated by a negative EBIT margin of -19.28%. Despite a positive EBITDA margin of 2.10%, overall income statement performance is weak, with substantial negative net income impacting overall profitability.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is strong at 50.84%, reflecting a solid capital structure. Return on equity is severely negative at -20.95%, pointing to challenges in generating returns for shareholders in the current period. Overall, the balance sheet displays a stable capital base with manageable leverage, but profitability issues are a concern.
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
Intel's free cash flow remains negative at -$10.94 billion, though it has shown some improvement from the previous year's -$15.66 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.49, highlighting cash flow generation challenges relative to net income losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further reflecting cash outflows. Cash flow performance indicates significant room for improvement, especially in light of negative free cash flow and operating cash flow issues.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue53.10B54.23B63.05B79.02B77.87B
Gross Profit17.34B21.71B26.87B43.81B43.61B
EBITDA1.20B11.24B21.30B33.87B36.12B
Net Income-18.76B1.69B8.01B19.87B20.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets196.49B191.57B182.10B168.41B153.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments22.06B25.03B28.34B28.41B23.89B
Total Debt50.01B49.28B42.05B38.10B36.40B
Total Liabilities91.45B81.61B78.82B73.02B72.05B
Stockholders Equity99.27B105.59B101.42B95.39B81.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-15.66B-14.28B-9.62B9.13B20.93B
Operating Cash Flow8.29B11.47B15.43B29.46B35.38B
Investing Cash Flow-18.26B-24.04B-10.23B-24.28B-20.80B
Financing Cash Flow11.14B8.51B1.11B-6.21B-12.92B

Intel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price20.70
Price Trends
50DMA
21.66
Negative
100DMA
21.53
Negative
200DMA
21.81
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Positive
RSI
37.39
Neutral
STOCH
37.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INTC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.84, below the 50-day MA of 21.66, and below the 200-day MA of 21.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for INTC.

Intel Risk Analysis

Intel disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intel reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Intel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$4.23T55.89115.46%0.02%86.17%81.36%
80
Outperform
$269.92B122.033.90%21.71%99.00%
80
Outperform
$149.02B22.6036.37%0.89%6.12%-5.66%
77
Outperform
$1.01T27.9633.29%<0.01%38.65%
71
Outperform
$113.06B62.025.21%1.68%-6.17%-14.16%
52
Neutral
$90.60B-19.24%2.42%-3.72%-2120.70%
51
Neutral
AU$1.67B2.26-31.66%3.53%16.55%-7.79%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
INTC
Intel
20.70
-9.94
-32.44%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
166.47
26.72
19.12%
ADI
Analog Devices
227.82
4.26
1.91%
AMAT
Applied Materials
185.69
-17.95
-8.81%
NVDA
Nvidia
173.50
61.95
55.54%
TSM
TSMC
245.60
87.37
55.22%

Intel Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Intel Announces Major Restructuring Initiative in July 2025
Negative
Jul 24, 2025

In the second quarter of 2025, Intel announced a significant restructuring initiative aimed at simplifying operations, enhancing transparency, and reallocating resources to core business areas. This plan, approved by the Audit Committee on July 10, 2025, includes a 15% reduction in the workforce and is expected to incur $1.9 billion in restructuring charges, primarily recognized in the second quarter. The initiative aims to improve efficiency and financial discipline, with a focus on strengthening Intel’s core product portfolio and AI roadmap. Despite these efforts, Intel reported a flat revenue of $12.9 billion for Q2 2025 and a GAAP EPS loss of $(0.67), impacted by restructuring charges. The company is targeting $17 billion in non-GAAP operating expenses for 2025 and $18 billion in gross capital expenditures.

The most recent analyst rating on (INTC) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intel stock, see the INTC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Intel Stockholder Meeting Approves Key Proposals
Neutral
May 9, 2025

At Intel Corporation’s annual stockholder meeting on May 6, 2025, 76.3% of outstanding shares were represented. Key outcomes included the election of 11 directors, approval of executive compensation, and amendments to the 2006 Equity Incentive Plan. However, stockholder proposals for ethical impact assessment, charitable giving report, and shareholder rights to act by written consent were not approved.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Intel’s EVP Resignation Announced April 2025
Negative
Apr 30, 2025

Christopher Schell, Intel‘s Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, announced his resignation on April 28, 2025, effective June 30, 2025, to pursue another career opportunity. This departure may impact Intel’s sales, marketing, and communications strategies, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relationships.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 27, 2025