Intel (INTC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $107.72B
• Dividend Yield: 0.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 124.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.59
• Revenue Growth: -3.72%
• EPS Growth: -2120.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 108,900
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 4,377,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 101,459,207
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 124,558,991
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.64
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 122.80
• 1Y Price Target: $22.34
• Price Target Upside: -8.78% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 29

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(6.17% Upside)

Intel's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. While technical analysis shows positive momentum, valuation metrics suggest potential overvaluation. The earnings call and corporate events provide some positive outlook with strategic initiatives and investments, but significant challenges remain in improving margins and competitive positioning.

Positive Factors

Asset Sale

Intel stated that the Altera sale to Silver Lake is expected to close and will generate $3.5 billion.

Product Development

Intel stated its upcoming leading-edge CPU Panther Lake (18A technology) remains on track to be introduced.

Strategic Investment

Softbank’s $2 billion strategic stake in Intel suggests greater interest in engaging with Intel manufacturing as part of Softbank’s Stargate initiative.

Negative Factors

Market Position

Government intervention or new investors are not expected to help Intel close its manufacturing, AI, or CPU share gaps against competitors.

Shareholder Impact

A potential 10% equity stake by the US government could dilute existing shareholders without offering immediate benefits.

Stock Performance

Intel's stock is likely to remain range-bound due to uncertainties around its manufacturing progress and external customer engagement.

Intel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Intel Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of computer products and technologies worldwide. The company operates through CCG, DCG, IOTG, Mobileye, NSG, PSG, and All Other segments. It offers platform products, such as central processing units and chipsets, and system-on-chip and multichip packages; and non-platform or adjacent products, including accelerators, boards and systems, connectivity products, graphics, and memory and storage products. The company also provides high-performance compute solutions for targeted verticals and embedded applications for retail, industrial, and healthcare markets; and solutions for assisted and autonomous driving comprising compute platforms, computer vision and machine learning-based sensing, mapping and localization, driving policy, and active sensors. In addition, it offers workload-optimized platforms and related products for cloud service providers, enterprise and government, and communications service providers. The company serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, and cloud service providers. Intel Corporation has a strategic partnership with MILA to develop and apply advances in artificial intelligence methods for enhancing the search in the space of drugs. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Intel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its semiconductor products, including microprocessors and chipsets. The company's key revenue streams include the Client Computing Group, which focuses on PC processors, and the Data Center Group, which provides solutions for data center operations and cloud services. Additionally, Intel earns revenue from its Internet of Things Group and Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group. Strategic partnerships with major technology firms, such as collaborations with cloud service providers and OEMs (original equipment manufacturers), enhance its market reach and contribute significantly to its earnings. Intel also invests in R&D to innovate and maintain its competitive edge in the rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Intel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Intel faces significant profitability challenges with negative net income and declining revenue. The balance sheet remains relatively strong with reasonable leverage and a solid equity ratio, but cash flow issues persist with negative free cash flow, raising concerns over liquidity and operational cash generation.

Income Statement

Intel's TTM revenue has slightly decreased from the previous year, indicating a revenue contraction trend. The gross profit margin for TTM stands at 29.76%, showing a substantial decline from historical levels, reflecting deteriorating cost management or pricing pressures. The net profit margin is deeply negative at -38.65%, highlighting significant profitability challenges, further accentuated by a negative EBIT margin of -19.28%. Despite a positive EBITDA margin of 2.10%, overall income statement performance is weak, with substantial negative net income impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is strong at 50.84%, reflecting a solid capital structure. Return on equity is severely negative at -20.95%, pointing to challenges in generating returns for shareholders in the current period. Overall, the balance sheet displays a stable capital base with manageable leverage, but profitability issues are a concern.

Cash Flow

Intel's free cash flow remains negative at -$10.94 billion, though it has shown some improvement from the previous year's -$15.66 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.49, highlighting cash flow generation challenges relative to net income losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further reflecting cash outflows. Cash flow performance indicates significant room for improvement, especially in light of negative free cash flow and operating cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	53.07B	53.10B	54.23B	63.05B	79.02B	77.87B
Gross Profit	15.79B	17.34B	21.71B	26.87B	43.81B	43.61B
EBITDA	1.11B	1.20B	11.24B	21.30B	33.87B	36.12B
Net Income	-20.50B	-18.76B	1.69B	8.01B	19.87B	20.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	192.52B	196.49B	191.57B	182.10B	168.41B	153.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.21B	22.06B	25.03B	28.34B	28.41B	23.89B
Total Debt	50.76B	50.01B	49.28B	42.05B	38.10B	36.40B
Total Liabilities	86.77B	91.45B	81.61B	78.82B	73.02B	72.05B
Stockholders Equity	97.88B	99.27B	105.59B	101.42B	95.39B	81.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-10.94B	-15.66B	-14.28B	-9.62B	9.13B	20.93B
Operating Cash Flow	10.08B	8.29B	11.47B	15.43B	29.46B	35.38B
Investing Cash Flow	-8.53B	-18.26B	-24.04B	-10.23B	-24.28B	-20.80B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.14B	11.14B	8.51B	1.11B	-6.21B	-12.92B

Intel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INTC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.71, above the 50-day MA of 22.68, and above the 200-day MA of 21.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INTC.

Intel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVDA	86 Outperform	$4.17T	48.56	109.42%	0.02%	71.55%	64.54%
ASML	81 Outperform	$294.28B	28.85	56.14%	0.87%	27.09%	40.94%
AVGO	78 Outperform	$1.44T	78.24	27.08%	0.69%	28.01%	235.66%
AMD	77 Outperform	$262.56B	93.13	4.70%	―	27.17%	108.67%
TSM	77 Outperform	$982.89B	26.34	33.29%	1.15%	38.65%	57.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.52B	8.84	-11.06%	1.87%	8.55%	-8.14%
INTC	58 Neutral	$107.72B	―	-19.24%	0.51%	-3.72%	-2120.70%

Intel Corporate Events

Intel Registers Stock Resale with SEC

On September 5, 2025, Intel Corporation filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC to register the potential resale of a warrant and shares of common stock by the U.S. Department of Commerce. This filing, required by a prior agreement, does not involve a sale by Intel, and the company will not receive proceeds from any resale by the Department of Commerce.

Intel Amends Funding Agreement with U.S. Commerce

On August 27, 2025, Intel Corporation and the U.S. Department of Commerce amended their Direct Funding Agreement, removing several obligations for Intel, including project milestone requirements and workforce policy mandates, while maintaining certain restrictions under the CHIPS Act. This amendment facilitated the closing of the Purchase Agreement, resulting in Intel receiving $5.695 billion in accelerated disbursements and issuing shares and warrants to the DOC, impacting Intel’s financial operations and strategic positioning in the semiconductor industry.

Intel Secures $8.9 Billion Investment from U.S. Government

On August 22, 2025, Intel Corporation entered into a significant agreement with the United States Department of Commerce, involving an $8.9 billion investment by the U.S. government in Intel’s common stock. This transaction, part of the CHIPS Act and Secure Enclave program, aims to bolster Intel’s role in expanding the domestic semiconductor industry. The agreement includes the issuance of shares and warrants to the U.S. government, with the government holding a 9.9% stake in Intel. This investment reflects confidence in Intel’s ability to advance national priorities and strengthen the U.S. semiconductor supply chain. However, the transaction also presents risks, such as potential dilution of existing shareholders and uncertainties regarding funding and regulatory changes. The U.S. government’s involvement may impact Intel’s operations and strategic decisions, particularly in international markets.

Intel Announces $2 Billion Investment from SoftBank

On August 18, 2025, Intel Corporation announced a $2 billion investment agreement with SoftBank Group Corp., under which SoftBank will purchase 86,956,522 shares of Intel’s common stock at $23 per share. This strategic investment aims to bolster semiconductor innovation in the U.S. and supports SoftBank’s vision of accelerating the AI revolution by enhancing access to advanced technologies. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals.

Intel Amends Altera Sale Agreement with SLP VII

On April 14, 2025, Intel Corporation entered into a transaction agreement to sell a majority interest in its Altera business to SLP VII Gryphon Aggregator, L.P. An amendment to this agreement was made on August 11, 2025, adjusting the purchase price calculations and extending the closing date to September 13, 2025. The transaction is expected to impact Intel’s operations, with potential risks including regulatory approval delays, changes in business relationships, and competition in the semiconductor industry.

Intel Announces Major Restructuring Initiative in July 2025

In the second quarter of 2025, Intel announced a significant restructuring initiative aimed at simplifying operations, enhancing transparency, and reallocating resources to core business areas. This plan, approved by the Audit Committee on July 10, 2025, includes a 15% reduction in the workforce and is expected to incur $1.9 billion in restructuring charges, primarily recognized in the second quarter. The initiative aims to improve efficiency and financial discipline, with a focus on strengthening Intel’s core product portfolio and AI roadmap. Despite these efforts, Intel reported a flat revenue of $12.9 billion for Q2 2025 and a GAAP EPS loss of $(0.67), impacted by restructuring charges. The company is targeting $17 billion in non-GAAP operating expenses for 2025 and $18 billion in gross capital expenditures.