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Intel (INTC)
NASDAQ:INTC

Intel (INTC) AI Stock Analysis

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Intel

(NASDAQ:INTC)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▼(-8.85%Downside)
Intel's overall score of 47 reflects substantial financial challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. While the earnings call provided some positive direction with exceeded guidance and strategic cost reductions, the technical analysis and valuation remain concerning. The resignation of a key executive adds to the uncertainty. To improve its score, Intel needs to address operational inefficiencies and competitive pressures in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
Positive Factors
Company Strategy
Focus on the core products is important, and deferring foundry and AI until 2027 could realign priorities in a positive direction.
Financial Strategy
Lowered operating and capital expenditures in model show first steps of new strategy on restructuring and investments.
Investor Relations
Intel Corp. will be participating in a virtual group investor meeting, indicating active engagement with investors.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Revenue beat, but guidance missed, with further gross margin downside and product push-outs.
Leadership Uncertainty
Without a permanent CEO in place, there is a lack of clarity on the long-term strategic direction of Intel.
Market Confidence
The potential halt of the 18A node for external clients could weigh on sentiment and confidence in Intel's recovery path.

Intel (INTC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Intel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIntel Corporation is a leading global technology company known for its semiconductor manufacturing and design. Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Intel is a major player in the technology sector, primarily focusing on designing and producing microprocessors, integrated graphics chips, and other semiconductor products that power a wide range of computing devices. The company's core products include processors for personal computers, data centers, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices, as well as memory solutions and programmable semiconductors.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntel makes money primarily through the sale of its semiconductor products, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from the sales of microprocessors used in personal computers and data centers. The company operates through several business units, including the Client Computing Group, which focuses on consumer and commercial PC platforms, and the Data Center Group, which provides high-performance processors for server, network, and storage platforms. Additionally, Intel generates revenue through its Internet of Things Group, offering processors and system-on-chip solutions for IoT applications, and the Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which develops memory and storage products. Intel also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other technology firms to enhance its product offerings and market reach, contributing to its revenue streams.

Intel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units, highlighting which segments drive Intel's growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Chart InsightsIntel's revenue dynamics reveal a mixed picture. While the Data Center segment struggles with competition from ARM, the Client Computing segment shows resilience, likely buoyed by strong Raptor Lake sales. Foundry Services, despite ongoing losses, show potential for growth, aligning with strategic priorities outlined by new leadership. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and capacity constraints pose risks. The earnings call highlights a focus on cost reduction and cultural transformation, suggesting a strategic pivot to bolster competitiveness and operational efficiency.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Intel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.65%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Intel's earnings call highlighted a solid start to the fiscal year with revenue and EPS exceeding guidance, driven by strong sales of Xeon and Raptor Lake processors. The company is implementing strategic cost reductions and a cultural transformation under new leadership. However, macroeconomic uncertainties, ongoing losses in the foundry segment, capacity constraints, and competitive pressures present significant challenges moving forward.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EPS Exceed Guidance
Intel reported first-quarter revenue of $12.7 billion, which was at the high end of their guidance range, driven by better-than-expected Xeon sales. Earnings per share were 13¢, above the guidance of breakeven EPS.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
The company announced plans to reduce operating expenses to $17 billion in 2025 and $16 billion in 2026, driven by simplification efforts and restructuring.
Positive Feedback on New Leadership
CEO Lip Bu Tan outlined strategic priorities to transform Intel’s culture, improve decision-making, and focus on innovation, with a particular emphasis on AI and foundry services.
Strong Cash Position
Intel ended the quarter with a cash balance of $21 billion and received $1.1 billion from CHIPS grants and $1.9 billion from the sale of its NAND business.
Strong Demand for Raptor Lake
Higher-than-expected sales of Raptor Lake processors contributed positively to the gross margin, with the mix being beneficial to Intel's financial performance.
Negative Updates
Uncertain Economic Environment
The macroeconomic landscape is increasingly uncertain, driven by shifting trade policies, persistent inflation, and increased regulatory risk, impacting forecasts and customer demand.
Continued Losses in Intel Foundry
Intel Foundry Services reported an operating loss of $2.3 billion, with challenges in ramping products and managing startup costs for Intel 18A.
Capacity Constraints on Older Nodes
Intel faces capacity constraints on its seven nanometer node due to higher-than-expected demand for Raptor Lake, impacting its ability to meet demand for newer products.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Adjusted free cash flow for the first quarter was negative at $3.7 billion, influenced by high capital expenditures and operational spend.
Challenges in Competitive Pressure
Intel continues to face competitive pressure in the market, particularly from ARM in the data center segment, impacting its ability to gain market share.
Company Guidance
During the Intel Corporation First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, guidance was provided for the second quarter and beyond. The company reported first-quarter revenue of $12.7 billion, exceeding guidance, driven by better-than-expected Xeon sales. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 39.2%, surpassing the guidance of 36% due to stronger-than-expected demand for Raptor Lake products. Earnings per share for the first quarter were 13¢, compared to a breakeven guidance. For the second quarter, Intel provided a revenue range of $11.2 to $12.4 billion, with a gross margin estimate of 36.5% and breakeven EPS, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts. The company also outlined OpEx targets of $17 billion for 2025 and $16 billion for 2026, alongside a revised CapEx target of $18 billion for 2025, aiming to drive operational efficiencies and reduce costs.

Intel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Intel faces significant financial challenges, including negative net income and declining revenue. The negative profit margins and cash flow difficulties highlight operational inefficiencies. Despite a strong asset base, the company must address market challenges to improve.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Intel's income statement reveals a challenging period with negative net income and declining revenue. For the TTM, the gross profit margin stands at 31.68%, which is a decrease from prior years, indicating cost pressure. The net profit margin is negative due to substantial net losses. Additionally, revenue growth is negative, revealing a downswing in sales. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational difficulties and a challenging market environment.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.50, suggesting a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio is 51.90%, which indicates a stable capital structure. However, the return on equity is negative due to the net losses, a concern for investors looking for profitability. The company's strong asset base and manageable debt levels provide some stability despite profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
The cash flow statement highlights a negative free cash flow growth rate, mostly driven by significant capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to negative net income, while the free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative. These figures point to a need for improved operational efficiency and better cost management to enhance cash generation capabilities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue53.04B53.10B54.23B63.05B79.02B77.87B
Gross Profit16.80B17.34B21.71B26.87B43.81B43.61B
EBITDA1.50B1.20B11.24B15.61B33.87B36.12B
Net Income-19.20B-18.76B1.69B8.01B19.87B20.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets192.24B196.49B191.57B182.10B168.41B153.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments21.05B22.06B25.03B28.34B28.41B23.89B
Total Debt50.15B50.01B49.28B42.05B38.10B36.40B
Total Liabilities85.83B91.45B81.61B78.82B73.02B72.05B
Stockholders Equity99.76B99.27B105.59B101.42B95.39B81.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-12.83B-15.66B-14.28B-9.62B9.13B20.93B
Operating Cash Flow10.32B8.29B11.47B15.43B29.46B35.38B
Investing Cash Flow-15.61B-18.26B-24.04B-10.23B-25.17B-20.80B
Financing Cash Flow7.31B11.14B8.51B1.11B-6.21B-12.92B

Intel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price22.49
Price Trends
50DMA
21.00
Positive
100DMA
21.64
Positive
200DMA
21.77
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.48
Negative
RSI
57.39
Neutral
STOCH
63.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INTC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.45, above the 50-day MA of 21.00, and above the 200-day MA of 21.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INTC.

Intel Risk Analysis

Intel disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intel reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Intel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
84
Outperform
$3.89T51.33115.46%0.03%86.17%81.36%
TSTSM
77
Outperform
$972.33B30.2132.11%1.17%35.45%47.97%
AMAMD
77
Outperform
$223.61B101.093.90%21.71%99.00%
AMAMD
77
Outperform
$223.61B101.093.90%21.71%99.00%
77
Outperform
$153.32B23.2536.37%0.96%6.12%-5.66%
77
Outperform
$153.32B23.2536.37%0.96%6.12%-5.66%
ADADI
75
Outperform
$121.92B66.885.21%1.61%-6.17%-14.16%
ADADI
75
Outperform
$121.92B66.885.21%1.61%-6.17%-14.16%
63
Neutral
£565.99M24.41-6.00%2.50%3.52%-29.29%
47
Neutral
$98.10B-18.66%2.22%-3.97%-562.40%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
INTC
Intel
22.49
-11.29
-33.42%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
137.91
-40.78
-22.82%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
137.91
-40.78
-22.82%
ADI
Analog Devices
245.68
16.28
7.10%
ADI
Analog Devices
245.68
16.28
7.10%
AMAT
Applied Materials
191.05
-52.93
-21.69%
AMAT
Applied Materials
191.05
-52.93
-21.69%
NVDA
Nvidia
159.34
31.18
24.33%
TSM
TSMC
234.80
50.25
27.23%

Intel Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Intel Stockholder Meeting Approves Key Proposals
Neutral
May 9, 2025

At Intel Corporation’s annual stockholder meeting on May 6, 2025, 76.3% of outstanding shares were represented. Key outcomes included the election of 11 directors, approval of executive compensation, and amendments to the 2006 Equity Incentive Plan. However, stockholder proposals for ethical impact assessment, charitable giving report, and shareholder rights to act by written consent were not approved.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Intel’s EVP Resignation Announced April 2025
Negative
Apr 30, 2025

Christopher Schell, Intel‘s Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, announced his resignation on April 28, 2025, effective June 30, 2025, to pursue another career opportunity. This departure may impact Intel’s sales, marketing, and communications strategies, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relationships.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 17, 2025