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ASML Holding
(NASDAQ:ASML)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$1,760.00
▲(0.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/18/26
ASML scores well primarily due to outstanding financial quality (best-in-class margins, conservative leverage, strong free cash flow) and a very upbeat earnings update with raised 2026 guidance and strong demand/backlog indicators. The overall score is tempered by expensive valuation (high P/E and low yield) and only mixed near-term technical signals despite an intact longer-term uptrend.
Positive Factors
EUV Market Leadership
ASML’s leadership in EUV lithography is a durable competitive moat: EUV tools are critical, highly complex, and have few suppliers. This creates long multi-year customer relationships, high switching costs, and pricing/capacity leverage as fabs scale advanced-node production, supporting sustained structural demand.
Negative Factors
Supply-chain and lead-time risks
ASML’s ability to convert demand into revenue depends on a specialized global supply chain and long lead-time components. Supplier constraints or partner production shortfalls can materially delay shipments and compress near-term growth and margin, making scale-up of production capacity operationally risky over months to years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
EUV Market Leadership
ASML’s leadership in EUV lithography is a durable competitive moat: EUV tools are critical, highly complex, and have few suppliers. This creates long multi-year customer relationships, high switching costs, and pricing/capacity leverage as fabs scale advanced-node production, supporting sustained structural demand.
Read all positive factors
ASML Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Lithography Systems Sold
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
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The Fly
The FlyASML Holding (ASML) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$661.10B
Dividend Yield0.52%
Average Volume (3M)2.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)54.9
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth17.87%
EPS Growth23.14%
CountryUS
Employees43,938
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)27.58
Shares Outstanding388,147,670
10 Day Avg. Volume1,967,127
30 Day Avg. Volume2,001,028
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)18.05
Price to Sales (P/S)10.83
P/FCF Ratio33.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2,391.80Price Target Upside36.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)43.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$49.50B
ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also pr...
How the Company Makes Money
ASML primarily makes money by selling semiconductor manufacturing equipment—especially lithography systems—to integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) and foundries. The largest portion of revenue is generated from system sales, where customers purc...
ASML Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 15, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive: ASML beat Q2 guidance, raised full-year revenue guidance, reported robust profitability and cash generation, and outlined aggressive capacity expansion plans driven by very strong demand across advanced logic and DRAM. Key risks/negatives included higher-than-expected operating expenses (transformation-related R&D), limited near-term High-NA revenue, ongoing supply-chain and lead-time constraints, and the need to manage tool mix transitions. Overall the positives (revenue beat, raised guidance, multi-segment demand, large percentage growth expectations for EUV/non-EUV/IBM, strong cash returns and buybacks) substantially outweigh the highlighted challenges.Positive Updates
Q2 Revenue Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance
Total net sales of EUR 9.3 billion in Q2, above the high end of guidance; updated full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to EUR 43.0–45.0 billion (previous guidance lower); Q3 sales guided at EUR 11–12 billion.
Negative Updates
Higher-Than-Guided Operating Expenses
Operating expenses in Q2 were higher than guidance due to recognition of estimated costs related to technology and IT transformation, primarily increasing R&D to EUR 1.3 billion (SG&A ~EUR 0.3 billion).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Revenue Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance
Total net sales of EUR 9.3 billion in Q2, above the high end of guidance; updated full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to EUR 43.0–45.0 billion (previous guidance lower); Q3 sales guided at EUR 11–12 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ASML said Q2 2026 results beat expectations with total net sales of €9.3B (net system sales €6.6B: €3.8B EUV including one High‑NA, €2.8B non‑EUV), Installed Base Management €2.8B (~€300M above guidance), gross margin 54%, R&D €1.3B, SG&A ~€0.3B, effective tax rate 17.5%, net income €2.9B (31.3% of sales) and EPS €7.59; cash & short‑term investments €7.6B, free cash flow €1.3B, Q2 share buybacks ≈€1.1B, final 2025 dividend €2.70 (total 2025 dividend €7.50) and first 2026 interim dividend €1.88 payable Aug 5. For Q3 they guide total net sales of €11–12B, IBM ≈€2.9B, gross margin 55–57%, R&D ≈€1.2B and SG&A ≈€0.4B, and they raised full‑year 2026 guidance to €43–45B sales with a 54–56% gross margin. Operationally ASML now expects ~65 Low‑NA EUV shipments in 2026 (EUV net system sales growth >45%), ~130 immersion DUV shipments, non‑EUV system sales growth ~25%, Installed Base Management growth >30%, memory‑related net system sales growth >75% and advanced‑logic foundry‑related net system sales >25%; China should be ≈20% of total sales, ~4–5 High‑NA units are expected to be revenue‑recognized in 2026, and ASML plans to increase Low‑NA EUV and immersion capacity ~30% in 2027 (investigating a further ~30% in 2028, with significant Low‑NA orders already received, implied ~110 units).ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 35.33B | 32.67B | 28.26B | 27.56B | 21.17B | 18.61B |
| Gross Profit | 18.63B | 17.26B | 14.49B | 14.14B | 10.70B | 9.81B |
| EBITDA | 14.02B | 12.43B | 10.12B | 9.98B | 7.10B | 7.23B |
| Net Income | 10.64B | 9.61B | 7.57B | 7.84B | 5.62B | 5.88B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 50.21B | 50.55B | 48.59B | 40.11B | 36.00B | 30.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.58B | 13.32B | 12.74B | 7.04B | 7.32B | 7.61B |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 2.71B | 4.99B | 4.88B | 4.42B | 4.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.39B | 30.94B | 30.11B | 26.61B | 27.26B | 20.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.83B | 19.60B | 18.48B | 13.50B | 8.74B | 10.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.04B | 10.65B | 9.50B | 3.23B | 7.04B | 10.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.53B | 12.16B | 11.66B | 5.35B | 8.29B | 11.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.35B | -3.63B | -2.73B | -2.64B | -1.00B | -75.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.69B | -8.33B | -2.96B | -2.95B | -6.97B | -10.31B |
ASML Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
1757.09
Price Trends
1761.57
Negative
1604.55
Positive
1409.13
Positive
Market Momentum
-16.41
Negative
51.35
Neutral
82.83
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1757.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1714.36, below the 50-day MA of 1761.57, and above the 200-day MA of 1409.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -16.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASML.
ASML Holding Risk Analysis
ASML Holding disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ASML Holding reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ASML Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $428.06B | 48.84 | 39.78% | 0.36% | 3.35% | 29.52% | |
77 Outperform | $661.10B | 54.93 | 52.37% | 0.50% | 17.87% | 23.14% | |
77 Outperform | $1.91T | 27.59 | 39.35% | 0.87% | 34.60% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $258.84B | 52.32 | 85.38% | 0.38% | 11.72% | 20.58% | |
66 Neutral | $389.37B | 52.92 | 66.97% | 0.34% | 26.02% | 38.85% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
52 Neutral | $512.72B | -46.22 | -10.76% | ― | 7.47% | 55.56% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASML
ASML Holding
1,733.48
1,016.19
141.67%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.