ASML Holding (ASML)
NASDAQ:ASML
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ASML Holding
(NASDAQ:ASML)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$1,659.00
▲(25.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, strong balance sheet, robust 2025 free cash flow) and a positive earnings outlook centered on EUV/installed-base momentum and supportive 2026 guidance. This is tempered by a stretched technical setup (overbought signals) and a rich valuation (high P/E and low yield), plus execution risk from the planned reorganization and China normalization.
Positive Factors
Technological leadership — EUV & High-NA
Commercializing the first High-NA tool and strong EUV momentum signals a durable technology moat. High-NA and EUV are critical for advanced nodes, creating high switching costs, strong customer lock-in and multi-year demand visibility that supports pricing power and R&D leverage.
Negative Factors
Revenue cyclicality and 2025 decline
A negative revenue trend in 2025 highlights semiconductor capex cyclicality and sensitivity to regional demand shifts. Inconsistent top-line growth complicates capacity planning, R&D pacing and cash-flow forecasting, increasing execution risk during downturns or normalization phases.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Technological leadership — EUV & High-NA
Commercializing the first High-NA tool and strong EUV momentum signals a durable technology moat. High-NA and EUV are critical for advanced nodes, creating high switching costs, strong customer lock-in and multi-year demand visibility that supports pricing power and R&D leverage.
Read all positive factors
ASML Holding (ASML) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$510.43B
Dividend Yield0.63%
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.8
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth24.91%
EPS Growth39.95%
CountryUS
Employees43,129
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.78
Shares Outstanding388,147,670
10 Day Avg. Volume1,895,947
30 Day Avg. Volume1,647,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)18.05
Price to Sales (P/S)10.83
P/FCF Ratio33.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit25.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda35.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,672.47Price Target Upside26.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)35.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.30B
ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company a...
How the Company Makes Money
ASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lithography equipment, particularly its EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems. The company also earns significant income from service agreements, which include maintenance, upgrades, and pa...
ASML Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Lithography Systems Sold
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyASML Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and financial momentum: record quarter/year results, robust EUV growth (39%), double-digit guidance for 2026 midpoint, sizable installed-base and metrology/inspection expansions, and clear demand drivers from AI. The primary negatives are a targeted but sizable reorganization (approx. 1,700 roles), normalization-related China revenue declines, and some weakness in Deep UV. Management framed the workforce action as strategic to improve engineering agility and long-term innovation. Overall the positive financial performance, constructive outlook and technology milestones substantially outweigh the operational and regional headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarter and Year
Q4 2025 was a record quarter for ASML in sales, order intake and cash flow; FY2025 net revenue EUR 32.7 billion, net income EUR 9.6 billion, and EPS approximately EUR 25 per ordinary share.
Negative Updates
Workforce Reduction and Reorganization
Planned reduction of approximately 1,700 roles (about 1,600 in the technology organization and ~100 in IT). Management described significant leadership reductions (from ~4,500 leaders to ~1,500) and stated this is painful but aimed at increasing engineering bandwidth. Short-term disruption and uncertainty for employees were acknowledged.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarter and Year
Q4 2025 was a record quarter for ASML in sales, order intake and cash flow; FY2025 net revenue EUR 32.7 billion, net income EUR 9.6 billion, and EPS approximately EUR 25 per ordinary share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ASML guided Q1 2026 net revenue of EUR 8.2–8.9 billion with a gross margin of 51–53% (installed‑base sales ~EUR 2.4 billion), and for full‑year 2026 expects net revenue of EUR 34–39 billion (midpoint implying ~12% growth after 16% in 2025), gross margin 51–53% and an annualized effective tax rate of ~17%; management said China should normalize to about 20% of total sales, flagged EUV as the primary growth engine and reiterated longer‑term 2030 targets of EUR 44–60 billion revenue and 56–60% gross margin. They proposed total dividend of EUR 7.50 (interim EUR 1.60 this quarter, proposed final EUR 2.70 subject to AGM), completed EUR 7.6 billion of a prior EUR 12 billion buyback and announced a new EUR 12 billion buyback program over three years.ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 32.67B | 28.26B | 27.56B | 21.17B | 18.61B |
| Gross Profit | 17.26B | 14.49B | 14.14B | 10.70B | 9.81B |
| EBITDA | 12.55B | 10.12B | 9.98B | 7.10B | 7.23B |
| Net Income | 9.61B | 7.57B | 7.84B | 5.62B | 5.88B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 50.55B | 48.59B | 40.11B | 36.00B | 30.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.32B | 12.74B | 7.04B | 7.32B | 7.61B |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 4.99B | 4.88B | 4.42B | 4.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.94B | 30.11B | 26.61B | 27.26B | 20.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.60B | 18.48B | 13.50B | 8.74B | 10.17B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.65B | 9.50B | 3.23B | 7.04B | 10.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.16B | 11.66B | 5.35B | 8.29B | 11.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.63B | -2.73B | -2.64B | -1.00B | -75.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.33B | -2.96B | -2.95B | -6.97B | -10.31B |
ASML Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
1317.23
Price Trends
1394.52
Negative
1252.68
Positive
1050.39
Positive
Market Momentum
-17.84
Positive
45.80
Neutral
51.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1317.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1348.39, below the 50-day MA of 1394.52, and above the 200-day MA of 1050.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -17.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASML.
ASML Holding Risk Analysis
ASML Holding disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ASML Holding reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ASML Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.47T | 28.45 | 35.12% | 0.82% | 36.10% | 51.55% | |
80 Outperform | $272.78B | 34.75 | 62.59% | 0.56% | 25.66% | 46.68% | |
78 Outperform | $510.43B | 36.81 | 52.14% | 0.63% | 24.91% | 39.95% | |
75 Outperform | $198.82B | 34.87 | 95.22% | 0.58% | 22.27% | 45.32% | |
72 Outperform | $276.55B | 31.26 | 38.90% | 0.69% | 4.47% | 0.48% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
48 Neutral | $251.65B | -658.38 | -0.26% | ― | -0.47% | 98.20% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASML
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ASML Holding Corporate Events
ASML Delivers Record 2025 Results, Unveils €12 Billion Buyback and Strong 2026 Outlook
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, ASML reported record 2025 results, with total net sales of €32.7 billion, a gross margin of 52.8% and net income of €9.6 billion, driven by strong fourth-quarter sales of €9.7 billion and robust demand for EU...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.