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Asml Holding N.V. (ASML)
:ASML
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ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

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ASML

ASML Holding

(NASDAQ:ASML)

Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$841.00
▲(17.31%Upside)
ASML's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the primary drivers of its high score. Despite a high valuation, the company's growth potential justifies it. However, technical indicators suggest a stable price period, and geopolitical risks pose challenges.
Positive Factors
Bookings
Bookings exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand from China.
Revenue Guide
ASML's revenue guide for 1Q25 is higher than prior estimates, indicating strong expected performance in the near term.
Revenue Outlook
ASML has updated its 2025 revenue outlook to reflect a 15% year-over-year growth.
Valuation
Valuation is at >10% discount to 3-year average which analysts believe makes risk/reward particularly attractive.
Negative Factors
Gross Margin
The gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be below analyst expectations.
Tariff Uncertainty
Tariff uncertainty remains a key unknown variable with risk of demand destruction.

ASML Holding (ASML) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its photolithography systems, including both Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. The company also provides maintenance and upgrade services for these machines, ensuring their optimal performance. A significant portion of ASML's revenue comes from long-term service agreements and the sale of spare parts. Additionally, ASML engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with major semiconductor manufacturers and suppliers, which further enhances its revenue streams. The company's success is largely driven by the continuous demand for advanced semiconductor technologies in various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, and data centers.

ASML Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Lithography Systems Sold
Lithography Systems Sold
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Chart InsightsASML's lithography systems sales show significant fluctuations, with a notable dip in early 2024 followed by a recovery. The earnings call highlights strong EUV technology milestones and AI-driven growth expectations, which may drive future sales. However, challenges such as negative free cash flow, tariff uncertainties, and order book volatility could impact sales stability. Despite these risks, the company's strategic focus on EUV advancements and AI demand suggests potential for sustained growth in the coming years.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

ASML Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.89%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in Q2 2025 with significant growth in sales, EUV revenue, and gross margin, driven by AI demand. However, uncertainties regarding tariffs, challenges in the China market, and potential slowdown in 2026 growth are concerns.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Total net sales reached EUR 7.7 billion, at the upper end of ASML's guidance, with net income of EUR 2.3 billion, representing 29.8% of total net sales.
EUV Revenue Growth
EUV revenue is expected to grow around 30% in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by increased EUV capacity and higher ASP.
Record Gross Margin
Gross margin for Q2 was above guidance at 53.7%, driven by an increase in upgrade business and lower-than-expected impact from tariffs.
Strong Installed Base Management
Installed Base Management sales came in above guidance at EUR 2.1 billion, with expected revenue growth of more than 20% over last year.
Positive Outlook for AI-driven Demand
AI is a key driver of growth in Memory and Logic, with expectations for continued strong demand in both areas.
Negative Updates
Uncertainty with Tariffs
Increasing uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, specifically tariffs, may impact business operations and customer decision-making.
Challenges in China Market
EUR 1.4 billion adjustment in backlog due to export restrictions in China, impacting the Deep UV and application business.
Potential Slowdown in Growth for 2026
Due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and tariff concerns, there is hesitation to confirm growth for 2026 despite strong demand drivers like AI.
Lower Expected Gross Margin in Second Half of 2025
Gross margin is expected to be lower in the second half of 2025 due to the margin-dilutive effect of High NA systems and lower upgrade revenue.
Company Guidance
During ASML's 2025 second quarter financial results call, the company reported net sales of EUR 7.7 billion, surpassing guidance, with net system sales at EUR 5.6 billion, including EUR 2.7 billion from EUV sales and EUR 2.9 billion from non-EUV sales. The gross margin exceeded expectations at 53.7%, driven by increased upgrade business and lower costs, despite the dilutive impact from High NA system revenue recognition. Operating expenses were as planned, with R&D expenses at EUR 1.2 billion and SG&A expenses at EUR 299 million. The effective tax rate for Q2 was 18.1%, with an annualized rate of around 17% expected for 2025. ASML ended the quarter with EUR 7.2 billion in cash and investments and an order backlog of around EUR 33 billion. For 2025, ASML anticipates a 15% revenue increase, with a gross margin of 52%, driven by strong demand for EUV and AI-related growth in both Logic and Memory. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including tariffs, pose risks to future growth projections, particularly for 2026.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ASML exhibits strong financial performance with robust profitability margins, effective leverage management, and solid cash flow generation. The income statement is particularly strong, with high margins and consistent revenue growth. The balance sheet reflects solid financial health, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization. Overall, ASML's financials support its growth prospects in the semiconductor industry.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
ASML's income statement shows robust performance with a gross profit margin of 52.0% and a net profit margin of 28.3% for TTM. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 10.1% increase in the recent annual period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 33.8% and 36.8%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The balance sheet reflects solid financial health, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is high at 49.7%, showcasing effective management of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 38.5%, ASML maintains a stable capital structure, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization.
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
ASML has a healthy cash flow position, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.31, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.07, indicating efficient capital expenditure management and positive cash flow growth of 2.2% over the previous period.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.26B27.56B21.17B18.61B13.98B
Gross Profit14.49B14.14B10.70B9.81B6.80B
EBITDA10.12B9.98B7.10B7.23B4.55B
Net Income7.57B7.84B5.62B5.88B3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets48.59B39.96B38.83B30.23B27.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.74B7.01B7.38B7.59B7.35B
Total Debt4.99B4.86B4.26B4.08B4.66B
Total Liabilities30.11B26.51B27.54B20.09B13.40B
Stockholders Equity18.48B13.45B11.29B10.14B13.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow9.10B3.25B7.22B9.91B3.63B
Operating Cash Flow11.17B5.44B9.43B10.85B4.63B
Investing Cash Flow-2.61B-2.69B-1.92B-72.00M-1.35B
Financing Cash Flow-2.83B-3.00B-7.19B-9.89B-753.00M

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price716.93
Price Trends
50DMA
766.28
Negative
100DMA
724.44
Positive
200DMA
721.69
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-13.14
Positive
RSI
38.76
Neutral
STOCH
11.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 716.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 774.69, below the 50-day MA of 766.28, and below the 200-day MA of 721.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -13.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Risk Analysis

ASML Holding disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ASML Holding reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$118.63B32.60104.10%0.75%20.44%44.14%
80
Outperform
$150.08B22.7636.37%0.88%6.12%-5.66%
79
Outperform
$276.89B27.4556.14%0.92%27.09%40.94%
78
Outperform
$124.20B27.0553.14%0.94%20.33%31.89%
77
Outperform
$1.01T27.3633.29%<0.01%38.65%
63
Neutral
$34.55B5.25-11.40%1.91%5.47%-20.39%
56
Neutral
$102.46B-18.66%2.21%-3.97%-562.40%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ASML
ASML Holding
725.08
-130.89
-15.29%
AMAT
Applied Materials
188.12
-12.31
-6.14%
INTC
Intel
22.63
-8.27
-26.76%
KLAC
KLA
904.18
148.40
19.64%
LRCX
Lam Research
97.78
10.39
11.89%
TSM
TSMC
241.60
83.10
52.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025