ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $550.42B
• Dividend Yield: 0.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.55
• Revenue Growth: 24.91%
• EPS Growth: 39.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 43,129
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 8.78
• Shares Outstanding: 388,147,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,455,421
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,702,638
• PEG Ratio: 1.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 18.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 38.18
• 1Y Price Target: $1,556.27
• Price Target Upside: 9.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $1,659.00 ▲(16.58% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, strong balance sheet, robust 2025 free cash flow) and a positive earnings outlook centered on EUV/installed-base momentum and supportive 2026 guidance. This is tempered by a stretched technical setup (overbought signals) and a rich valuation (high P/E and low yield), plus execution risk from the planned reorganization and China normalization.

Positive Factors

Technological leadership — EUV & High-NA

Commercializing the first High-NA tool and strong EUV momentum signals a durable technology moat. High-NA and EUV are critical for advanced nodes, creating high switching costs, strong customer lock-in and multi-year demand visibility that supports pricing power and R&D leverage.

Exceptional margins and profitability

Sustained high gross and net margins reflect pricing power and capital-efficient product economics. Durable margins support large R&D investment, buybacks and dividends, enabling long-term innovation and shareholder returns even if top-line growth fluctuates across semiconductor cycles.

Installed base and recurring services growth

Rapidly growing installed-base and service revenue strengthens recurring cash generation and reduces revenue volatility from equipment cycles. Services increase customer stickiness, higher lifetime margins and predictable follow-on revenue to fund R&D and capacity expansion over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Revenue cyclicality and 2025 decline

A negative revenue trend in 2025 highlights semiconductor capex cyclicality and sensitivity to regional demand shifts. Inconsistent top-line growth complicates capacity planning, R&D pacing and cash-flow forecasting, increasing execution risk during downturns or normalization phases.

Execution risk from large reorganization

A sizable reorganization to cut leadership and reassign engineers aims to improve agility but risks short-term disruption, loss of institutional knowledge and morale. That can delay product roadmaps, slow commercialization of High-NA/throughput gains and impair sustained innovation capacity.

Cash-flow timing volatility / working-capital swings

Material working-capital swings and mismatches between accounting profit and cash flow create funding-timing uncertainty. This raises risk for consistent funding of capex, R&D and buybacks, and can amplify stress if revenue softens or customer deliveries shift, despite strong FCF in 2025.

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

ASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lithography equipment, particularly its EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems. The company also earns significant income from service agreements, which include maintenance, upgrades, and parts for its machines. This service revenue is a crucial aspect of its business model, providing a steady income stream post-equipment sale. Additionally, ASML engages in partnerships with leading semiconductor manufacturers, which often involve long-term contracts and collaborative development projects, ensuring a consistent demand for its advanced technology. The company also benefits from a growing trend towards more complex semiconductor designs, which increases the demand for its cutting-edge lithography systems. Overall, ASML's strong market position, technological leadership, and strategic partnerships contribute significantly to its financial performance.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High-quality fundamentals: exceptional profitability (net margin near ~30% in 2025), conservative and improving leverage, and strong free cash flow in 2025. Offsetting factors are growth/cycle sensitivity (2025 revenue decline noted in the statements) and cash-flow timing volatility (working-capital swings and weaker cash conversion versus accounting profit).

Income Statement

Profitability remains exceptional, with strong gross and operating margins and a net margin near 30% in 2025. Earnings increased versus 2024 alongside expanding margins, underscoring solid pricing power and cost control. The key weakness is growth consistency: revenue turned negative in 2025 after modest growth in 2024, indicating a pause after prior strong expansion.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is conservative and improving, with debt-to-equity falling materially by 2025 and a low overall debt load relative to equity. Equity has grown and returns on equity are very high, reflecting strong capital efficiency. The main watch-out is that very high returns can be amplified by capital structure and cycle effects, so profitability durability matters if industry conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and improving recently: free cash flow rose in 2025 and remains robust relative to net income. However, cash flow has been more volatile across the period (notably weaker in 2023), and operating cash flow covers only about half of accounting operating profit in 2025, suggesting working-capital or timing swings that can create year-to-year variability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.38B	28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B
Gross Profit	16.58B	14.49B	14.14B	10.70B	9.81B
EBITDA	11.94B	10.12B	9.98B	7.10B	7.23B
Net Income	9.23B	7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	50.55B	48.59B	40.11B	36.00B	30.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.32B	12.74B	7.04B	7.32B	7.61B
Total Debt	2.71B	4.99B	4.88B	4.42B	4.76B
Total Liabilities	30.94B	30.11B	26.61B	27.26B	20.15B
Stockholders Equity	19.60B	18.48B	13.50B	8.74B	10.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.65B	9.50B	3.23B	7.04B	10.37B
Operating Cash Flow	12.16B	11.66B	5.35B	8.29B	11.31B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.63B	-2.73B	-2.64B	-1.00B	-75.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.33B	-2.96B	-2.95B	-6.97B	-10.31B

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1423.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1423 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1323.77, above the 50-day MA of 1167.93, and above the 200-day MA of 906.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 83.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSM	82 Outperform	$1.46T	31.94	36.46%	0.82%	39.73%	56.22%
ASML	78 Outperform	$550.42B	52.13	51.52%	0.63%	24.91%	39.95%
KLAC	78 Outperform	$187.62B	49.01	100.73%	0.58%	22.27%	45.32%
AMAT	77 Outperform	$255.58B	39.41	35.51%	0.69%	4.47%	0.48%
LRCX	76 Outperform	$291.54B	50.86	65.56%	0.56%	25.66%	46.68%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
INTC	57 Neutral	$232.12B	-567.40	-0.25%	―	-1.49%	―

ASML Holding Corporate Events

ASML Delivers Record 2025 Results, Unveils €12 Billion Buyback and Strong 2026 Outlook

On January 28, 2026, ASML reported record 2025 results, with total net sales of €32.7 billion, a gross margin of 52.8% and net income of €9.6 billion, driven by strong fourth-quarter sales of €9.7 billion and robust demand for EUV systems, which helped push quarterly net bookings to €13.2 billion and year-end backlog to €38.8 billion. The company guided for further growth in 2026, forecasting annual revenue between €34 billion and €39 billion with gross margins of 51–53%, launched a new share buyback program of up to €12 billion through 2028 alongside a 17% higher total dividend for 2025, and announced plans to streamline its Technology and IT organizations to sharpen its focus on engineering and innovation as it prepares for an anticipated upcycle in semiconductor demand, especially from AI-related applications.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASML) stock is a Buy with a $1642.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ASML Holding stock, see the ASML Stock Forecast page.