ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $395.66B
• Dividend Yield: 0.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: 24.91%
• EPS Growth: 39.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 43,129
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 6.38
• Shares Outstanding: 388,147,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,195,317
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,533,333
• PEG Ratio: -21.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 14.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.83
• 1Y Price Target: $1,049.34
• Price Target Upside: 3.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $870.00 ▼(-14.45% Downside)

ASML's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlight robust profitability and strategic growth initiatives. Technical analysis supports a positive momentum, though valuation concerns and potential demand challenges from China are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Performance

ASML's robust financial performance with high sales and margins indicates strong operational efficiency and market demand, supporting long-term growth.

Technological Advancements

Advancements in EUV technology enhance ASML's competitive edge, ensuring it remains a leader in semiconductor manufacturing technology.

Strategic Partnerships

The partnership with Mistral AI strengthens ASML's product offerings, potentially increasing market share and driving future revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Reduced Demand from China

Decreased demand from China could impact ASML's revenue, as China is a significant market for semiconductor equipment.

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow growth may affect ASML's ability to invest in R&D and expansion, potentially impacting future innovation and competitiveness.

Potential Demand Challenges

Potential demand challenges, particularly from China, could hinder ASML's growth prospects, affecting long-term revenue and market position.

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

ASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lithography systems, which are essential for semiconductor fabrication. The company's revenue model consists of two main components: system sales and service revenue. System sales involve the sale of lithography machines to semiconductor manufacturers, which can account for a significant portion of ASML's earnings. Additionally, ASML provides ongoing maintenance and support services, which create a recurring revenue stream. The company also benefits from a strong partnership ecosystem, collaborating with major semiconductor manufacturers like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, which helps drive demand for its advanced equipment. Moreover, ASML invests heavily in research and development to innovate and improve its product offerings, further solidifying its position as a leader in the industry and contributing to its long-term revenue growth.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ASML demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth, high profit margins, and robust cash flow generation. The low debt-to-equity ratio and high return on equity further highlight efficient financial management.

Income Statement

ASML has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a TTM revenue increase of 13.8% over the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at 52.5% and the net profit margin at 29.3%, both of which are impressive within the semiconductor industry. The EBIT margin is 34.8% and the EBITDA margin is 38.5%, reflecting robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating low financial leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is a commendable 53.4%, showcasing efficient use of equity. The equity ratio is 39.3%, suggesting a healthy proportion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

ASML's cash flow is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 1.5% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.19, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.98, demonstrating robust cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.21B	28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B	13.98B
Gross Profit	16.89B	14.49B	14.14B	10.70B	9.81B	6.80B
EBITDA	13.15B	10.12B	9.98B	7.10B	7.23B	4.55B
Net Income	9.85B	7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B	3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.10B	48.59B	40.11B	36.00B	30.32B	27.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.13B	12.74B	7.04B	7.32B	7.61B	7.34B
Total Debt	2.70B	4.99B	4.88B	4.42B	4.76B	4.85B
Total Liabilities	26.10B	30.11B	26.61B	27.26B	20.15B	13.39B
Stockholders Equity	18.99B	18.48B	13.50B	8.74B	10.17B	13.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.45B	9.50B	3.23B	7.04B	10.37B	3.41B
Operating Cash Flow	11.88B	11.66B	5.35B	8.29B	11.31B	4.31B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.62B	-2.73B	-2.64B	-1.00B	-75.06M	-1.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.61B	-2.96B	-2.95B	-6.97B	-10.31B	-700.69M

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1016.96
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1016.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1033.06, above the 50-day MA of 951.35, and above the 200-day MA of 780.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 23.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASML	81 Outperform	$395.66B	38.51	51.72%	0.69%	24.91%	39.95%
TSM	81 Outperform	$1.23T	29.64	34.89%	1.01%	39.73%	―
KLAC	79 Outperform	$161.23B	38.53	99.17%	0.60%	22.27%	45.32%
AMAT	77 Outperform	$186.04B	27.84	35.64%	0.75%	6.70%	-5.95%
LRCX	77 Outperform	$207.31B	36.37	62.26%	0.59%	25.66%	46.68%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
INTC	61 Neutral	$173.92B	3,597.17	0.19%	―	-1.49%	―

ASML Holding Corporate Events

ASML Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Positive Outlook

ASML Holding NV reported its third-quarter 2025 results with total net sales of €7.5 billion and a net income of €2.1 billion. The company expects a full-year 2025 sales growth of around 15% and a gross margin of approximately 52%. ASML anticipates fourth-quarter sales between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion. The company has also announced an interim dividend and continued its share buyback program, although it does not expect to complete the current program within the 2022–2025 timeframe. ASML’s advancements in EUV technology and partnerships in AI are expected to enhance its market position, despite anticipated declines in sales to China in 2026.