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ASML Holding (ASML)
NASDAQ:ASML

ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

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ASML Holding

(NASDAQ:ASML)

Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$891.00
▲(11.43%Upside)
ASML's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, although valuation concerns and macroeconomic challenges like tariffs and order book volatility temper the score slightly.
Positive Factors
China Revenue Contribution
ASML now expects total China revenue to be a bit over 25% of total revenue, an improvement from prior expectations.
Revenue Guidance
ASML reiterated its €30-€35B revenue guide for 2025, with EUV backlog covering the guide midpoint.
Negative Factors
Bookings Performance
1Q25 system bookings were lower than expected, with EUV bookings significantly below buyside expectations.
Tariff Uncertainty
Tariff uncertainty remains a key unknown variable with risk of demand destruction.

ASML Holding (ASML) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its photolithography systems, including both Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. The company also provides maintenance and upgrade services for these machines, ensuring their optimal performance. A significant portion of ASML's revenue comes from long-term service agreements and the sale of spare parts. Additionally, ASML engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with major semiconductor manufacturers and suppliers, which further enhances its revenue streams. The company's success is largely driven by the continuous demand for advanced semiconductor technologies in various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, and data centers.

ASML Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Lithography Systems Sold
Lithography Systems Sold
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Chart InsightsASML's lithography systems sales show significant fluctuations, with a notable dip in early 2024 followed by a recovery. The earnings call highlights strong EUV technology milestones and AI-driven growth expectations, which may drive future sales. However, challenges such as negative free cash flow, tariff uncertainties, and order book volatility could impact sales stability. Despite these risks, the company's strategic focus on EUV advancements and AI demand suggests potential for sustained growth in the coming years.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

ASML Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 17.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
ASML reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, with positive developments in EUV technology and a positive outlook driven by AI demand. However, the company faces challenges from negative free cash flow, tariff uncertainties, and order book volatility, creating a balanced sentiment overall.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Financial Performance
ASML reported total net sales of EUR7.7 billion in Q1 2025, in line with guidance. Net system sales were EUR5.7 billion, driven by EUR3.2 billion from EUV sales and EUR2.5 billion from non-EUV sales. Gross margin was above guidance at 54%.
EUV Technology Milestones
ASML achieved significant milestones in EUV technology, including the rollout of the NXE:3800E system at full specification and advancements in High NA EUV systems, with promising reports from customers such as Intel and Samsung.
Dividend and Share Buyback
ASML paid a third quarterly interim dividend of EUR1.52 per ordinary share and completed share buybacks totaling around EUR2.7 billion in Q1 2025.
Positive Outlook for AI-Driven Growth
ASML's management indicated that the growth in Artificial Intelligence remains a key driver for the industry, with expectations for both 2025 and 2026 to be growth years.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow
ASML reported a free cash flow of minus EUR475 million in Q1 2025, attributed to customer payment dynamics and continued investments in fixed assets.
Tariff Uncertainty
ASML faces elevated uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with potential direct and indirect impacts on the business. The situation remains dynamic and unresolved.
Order Book Challenges
Q1 net system bookings were EUR3.9 billion, indicating some volatility and uncertainty in the order environment, potentially impacted by macroeconomic factors and tariff discussions.
Company Guidance
During ASML's 2025 first quarter financial results conference call, the company provided detailed guidance and insights into its financial performance and future outlook. ASML reported total net sales of EUR7.7 billion, with net system sales accounting for EUR5.7 billion, including EUR3.2 billion from EUV sales. The gross margin exceeded expectations at 54%, attributed to favorable EUV product mix and customer productivity milestones. Operating expenses aligned with guidance, with R&D at EUR1.161 billion and SG&A at EUR281 million. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 16.7%, with an annualized expectation of around 17% for 2025. ASML's Q1 net income was EUR2.4 billion, leading to earnings per share of EUR6. The company ended the quarter with EUR9.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, despite a free cash flow of minus EUR475 million. Order book activity indicated EUR3.9 billion in net system bookings, with a 60% focus on Logic. ASML anticipates Q2 net sales between EUR7.2 billion and EUR7.7 billion, with gross margins expected between 50% and 53%, influenced by tariff uncertainties. For the full year 2025, ASML projects revenues between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion, with growth anticipated for 2026.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ASML demonstrates strong financial performance with high profitability margins and effective cash flow management. The income statement shows robust growth and efficient operations, while the balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and high ROE. Minor improvements can be made in asset utilization.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
ASML's income statement shows robust performance with a gross profit margin of 52.0% and a net profit margin of 28.3% for TTM. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 10.1% increase in the recent annual period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 33.8% and 36.8%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The balance sheet reflects solid financial health, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is high at 49.7%, showcasing effective management of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 38.5%, ASML maintains a stable capital structure, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization.
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
ASML has a healthy cash flow position, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.31, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.07, indicating efficient capital expenditure management and positive cash flow growth of 2.2% over the previous period.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue30.71B28.26B27.56B21.17B18.61B13.98B
Gross Profit15.98B14.49B14.14B10.51B9.81B6.80B
EBITDA11.31B9.94B9.98B7.16B6.99B4.53B
Net Income8.70B7.57B7.84B5.62B5.88B3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets45.48B48.59B39.96B38.83B30.23B27.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.10B12.74B7.01B7.38B7.59B7.35B
Total Debt3.68B4.69B4.63B4.26B4.08B4.66B
Total Liabilities27.98B30.11B26.51B27.54B20.09B13.40B
Stockholders Equity17.50B18.48B13.45B11.29B10.14B13.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow9.29B9.08B3.25B7.22B9.91B3.63B
Operating Cash Flow11.36B11.17B5.44B9.43B10.85B4.63B
Investing Cash Flow-2.30B-2.61B-2.69B-1.92B-72.00M-1.35B
Financing Cash Flow-5.06B-2.83B-3.00B-7.19B-9.89B-753.00M

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price799.59
Price Trends
50DMA
740.81
Positive
100DMA
720.05
Positive
200DMA
725.20
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
16.52
Positive
RSI
60.02
Neutral
STOCH
73.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 799.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 778.86, above the 50-day MA of 740.81, and above the 200-day MA of 725.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Risk Analysis

ASML Holding disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ASML Holding reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$305.78B33.2955.21%0.96%16.46%21.29%
80
Outperform
$152.48B23.1336.37%0.97%6.12%-5.66%
80
Outperform
$118.87B32.67104.10%0.83%20.44%44.14%
80
Outperform
$126.42B27.5353.14%0.93%20.33%31.89%
TSTSM
77
Outperform
$975.84B30.0532.11%1.17%35.45%47.97%
49
Neutral
C$2.91B2.04-80.91%2.67%12.55%-24.32%
47
Neutral
$95.44B-18.66%2.29%-3.97%-562.40%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ASML
ASML Holding
799.59
-266.59
-25.00%
AMAT
Applied Materials
190.01
-50.31
-20.93%
INTC
Intel
21.88
-9.94
-31.24%
KLAC
KLA
921.10
73.77
8.71%
LRCX
Lam Research
98.83
-8.69
-8.08%
TSM
TSMC
233.60
51.66
28.39%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 10, 2025