ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $276.89B
• Dividend Yield: 0.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 27.09%
• EPS Growth: 40.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 43,129
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 6.84
• Shares Outstanding: 393,830,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,083,419
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,932,378
• PEG Ratio: 3.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 14.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $863.83
• Price Target Upside: 20.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $841.00 ▲(17.31%Upside)

ASML's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the primary drivers of its high score. Despite a high valuation, the company's growth potential justifies it. However, technical indicators suggest a stable price period, and geopolitical risks pose challenges.

Positive Factors

Bookings

Bookings exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand from China.

Revenue Guide

ASML's revenue guide for 1Q25 is higher than prior estimates, indicating strong expected performance in the near term.

Revenue Outlook

ASML has updated its 2025 revenue outlook to reflect a 15% year-over-year growth.

Valuation

Valuation is at >10% discount to 3-year average which analysts believe makes risk/reward particularly attractive.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin

The gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be below analyst expectations.

Tariff Uncertainty

Tariff uncertainty remains a key unknown variable with risk of demand destruction.

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

ASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its photolithography systems, including both Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. The company also provides maintenance and upgrade services for these machines, ensuring their optimal performance. A significant portion of ASML's revenue comes from long-term service agreements and the sale of spare parts. Additionally, ASML engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with major semiconductor manufacturers and suppliers, which further enhances its revenue streams. The company's success is largely driven by the continuous demand for advanced semiconductor technologies in various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, and data centers.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ASML exhibits strong financial performance with robust profitability margins, effective leverage management, and solid cash flow generation. The income statement is particularly strong, with high margins and consistent revenue growth. The balance sheet reflects solid financial health, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization. Overall, ASML's financials support its growth prospects in the semiconductor industry.

Income Statement

ASML's income statement shows robust performance with a gross profit margin of 52.0% and a net profit margin of 28.3% for TTM. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 10.1% increase in the recent annual period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 33.8% and 36.8%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and strong profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects solid financial health, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is high at 49.7%, showcasing effective management of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 38.5%, ASML maintains a stable capital structure, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

ASML has a healthy cash flow position, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.31, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.07, indicating efficient capital expenditure management and positive cash flow growth of 2.2% over the previous period.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B	13.98B
Gross Profit	14.49B	14.14B	10.70B	9.81B	6.80B
EBITDA	10.12B	9.98B	7.10B	7.23B	4.55B
Net Income	7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B	3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	48.59B	39.96B	38.83B	30.23B	27.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.74B	7.01B	7.38B	7.59B	7.35B
Total Debt	4.99B	4.86B	4.26B	4.08B	4.66B
Total Liabilities	30.11B	26.51B	27.54B	20.09B	13.40B
Stockholders Equity	18.48B	13.45B	11.29B	10.14B	13.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.10B	3.25B	7.22B	9.91B	3.63B
Operating Cash Flow	11.17B	5.44B	9.43B	10.85B	4.63B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.61B	-2.69B	-1.92B	-72.00M	-1.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.83B	-3.00B	-7.19B	-9.89B	-753.00M

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 716.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 716.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 774.69, below the 50-day MA of 766.28, and below the 200-day MA of 721.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -13.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KLAC	82 Outperform	$118.63B	32.60	104.10%	0.75%	20.44%	44.14%
AMAT	80 Outperform	$150.08B	22.76	36.37%	0.88%	6.12%	-5.66%
ASML	79 Outperform	$276.89B	27.45	56.14%	0.92%	27.09%	40.94%
LRCX	78 Outperform	$124.20B	27.05	53.14%	0.94%	20.33%	31.89%
TSM	77 Outperform	$1.01T	27.36	33.29%	<0.01%	38.65%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$34.55B	5.25	-11.40%	1.91%	5.47%	-20.39%
INTC	56 Neutral	$102.46B	―	-18.66%	2.21%	-3.97%	-562.40%