ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

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ASML Holding

(NASDAQ:ASML)

Rating:81Outperform

Price Target:

$870.00

▲(15.47% Upside)

ASML's strong financial performance and positive earnings call results are the primary drivers of its high stock score. The company's robust growth in EUV revenue and solid order book position it well for future success. However, high valuation and geopolitical risks, particularly related to China, temper the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Bookings

Bookings exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand from China.

Revenue Outlook

ASML has updated its 2025 revenue outlook to reflect a 15% year-over-year growth.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin Expectations

The gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be below analyst expectations.

Growth Uncertainty

There is increasing uncertainty about growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

ASML Holding (ASML) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$293.01B

Dividend Yield0.9%

Average Volume (3M)1.55M

Price to Earnings (P/E)28.2

Beta (1Y)1.47

Revenue Growth27.09%

EPS Growth40.94%

CountryUS

Employees43,129

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength84

IndustrySemiconductors

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)6.84

Shares Outstanding393,830,700

10 Day Avg. Volume1,200,877

30 Day Avg. Volume1,551,940

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05

Enterprise Value/Revenue9.55

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.18

Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.81

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$864.71

Price Target Upside14.77% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionASML Holding N.V. is a Dutch company and currently the largest supplier in the world of photolithography systems for the semiconductor industry. Founded in 1984, ASML operates in the technology sector, focusing on the production of advanced machinery used in the manufacturing of integrated circuits (ICs). The company is best known for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are critical for producing smaller, more powerful microchips. ASML's core products and services include lithography equipment, maintenance services, and software solutions that enhance the efficiency of semiconductor manufacturing processes.

How the Company Makes MoneyASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lithography systems, which are essential for semiconductor fabrication. The company's revenue model consists of two main components: system sales and service revenue. System sales involve the sale of lithography machines to semiconductor manufacturers, which can account for a significant portion of ASML's earnings. Additionally, ASML provides ongoing maintenance and support services, which create a recurring revenue stream. The company also benefits from a strong partnership ecosystem, collaborating with major semiconductor manufacturers like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, which helps drive demand for its advanced equipment. Moreover, ASML invests heavily in research and development to innovate and improve its product offerings, further solidifying its position as a leader in the industry and contributing to its long-term revenue growth.

ASML Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Lithography Systems Sold

Lithography Systems Sold
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Chart InsightsASML's lithography systems sales have shown volatility, with a notable dip in early 2024, followed by recovery. The latest earnings call highlights strong demand driven by AI, boosting EUV sales and gross margins. However, geopolitical uncertainties, especially tariffs and challenges in China, pose risks. Despite these, ASML anticipates a 15% revenue increase in 2025, supported by AI-related growth. Investors should watch for potential impacts on future growth due to these external factors.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

ASML Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

ASML demonstrated strong financial results in Q2 2025 with significant growth in EUV revenue and a robust order book. However, the company faces uncertainties due to geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges, particularly concerning tariffs, which may affect future growth. Revenue dependency on China is increasing, and there are gross margin challenges projected for the latter half of the year.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

ASML's net sales for Q2 2025 were EUR 7.7 billion, at the upper end of guidance, with a gross margin above guidance at 53.7%.

EUV Revenue Growth

EUV revenue is expected to grow by around 30% in 2025 versus 2024, driven by increased demand from AI and advanced DRAM nodes.

Increase in Installed Base Management Sales

Sales in Installed Base Management exceeded guidance at EUR 2.1 billion, with a growth expectation of more than 20% over last year.

Strong Order Book

Q2 net system bookings were EUR 5.5 billion, with a backlog of around EUR 33 billion.

Negative Updates

Uncertainty in Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Environment

ASML faces uncertainties due to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, particularly related to tariffs impacting the business.

Lower Growth in 2026

ASML cannot confirm 2026 as a growth year due to customer uncertainties and challenges in navigating tariff discussions.

Higher Revenue Dependency on China

Revenue from China is expected to account for over 25% of total revenue this year, increasing dependency amidst geopolitical tensions.

Gross Margin Challenges Ahead

Gross margin in the second half of the year is expected to be lower due to margin dilutive effects, lower upgrade revenue, and lack of first-half one-off benefits.

Company Guidance

During the ASML 2025 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call, the company reported total net sales of EUR 7.7 billion, surpassing their guidance due to strong revenue recognition from one High NA system and additional upgrade business. Net system sales were EUR 5.6 billion, with EUR 2.7 billion from EUV sales and EUR 2.9 billion from non-EUV sales. The logic segment accounted for 69% of system sales, while memory contributed 31%. Installed Base Management sales exceeded expectations at EUR 2.1 billion. The gross margin was reported at 53.7%, above guidance, attributed to increased upgrade business and lower costs. Operating expenses were in line with projections, with R&D at EUR 1.2 billion and SG&A at EUR 299 million. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 18.1%, with an anticipated annual rate of approximately 17% for 2025. Net income was EUR 2.3 billion, representing 29.8% of total net sales, equating to earnings per share of EUR 5.90. As of the end of the quarter, ASML had EUR 7.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The order book showed net system bookings of EUR 5.5 billion, with Logic accounting for 84% and Memory 16%. ASML's backlog was approximately EUR 33 billion, reflecting a EUR 1.4 billion adjustment due to customer responses. The company also declared a quarterly interim dividend of EUR 1.60 per share, payable on August 6, 2025, and repurchased shares totaling EUR 1.4 billion during the quarter.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ASML exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth, high profit margins, and robust cash flow. The company's low financial leverage and efficient equity use further enhance its financial stability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ASML has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a TTM revenue increase of 13.8% over the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at 52.5% and the net profit margin at 29.3%, both of which are impressive within the semiconductor industry. The EBIT margin is 34.8% and the EBITDA margin is 38.5%, reflecting robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is solid with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating low financial leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is a commendable 53.4%, showcasing efficient use of equity. The equity ratio is 39.3%, suggesting a healthy proportion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

ASML's cash flow is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 1.5% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.19, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.98, demonstrating robust cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.16B	28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B	13.98B
Gross Profit	16.89B	14.49B	14.14B	10.70B	9.81B	6.80B
EBITDA	12.38B	10.12B	9.98B	7.10B	7.23B	4.55B
Net Income	9.42B	7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B	3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	44.85B	48.59B	39.96B	38.83B	30.23B	27.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.25B	12.74B	7.01B	7.38B	7.59B	7.35B
Total Debt	3.70B	4.99B	4.86B	4.26B	4.08B	4.66B
Total Liabilities	27.23B	30.11B	26.51B	27.54B	20.09B	13.40B
Stockholders Equity	17.62B	18.48B	13.45B	11.29B	10.14B	13.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.23B	9.10B	3.25B	7.22B	9.91B	3.63B
Operating Cash Flow	11.18B	11.17B	5.44B	9.43B	10.85B	4.63B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.29B	-2.61B	-2.69B	-1.92B	-72.00M	-1.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.45B	-2.83B	-3.00B	-7.19B	-9.89B	-753.00M

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price753.43

Price Trends

50DMA

750.17

Positive

100DMA

735.84

Positive

200DMA

721.54

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

2.69

Negative

RSI

53.42

Neutral

STOCH

39.49

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 753.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 744.61, above the 50-day MA of 750.17, and above the 200-day MA of 721.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Risk Analysis

ASML Holding disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ASML Holding reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASML	81 Outperform	$293.01B	28.21	56.14%	0.90%	27.09%	40.94%
LRCX	80 Outperform	$122.80B	23.36	58.24%	0.92%	23.68%	43.16%
KLAC	80 Outperform	$111.69B	27.87	100.78%	0.85%	24.04%	49.69%
TSM	77 Outperform	$980.88B	26.00	33.29%	1.15%	38.65%	57.18%
AMAT	69 Neutral	$125.53B	18.79	35.64%	1.09%	6.70%	-5.95%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.51B	8.11	-11.05%	1.89%	8.55%	-8.72%
INTC	58 Neutral	$105.97B	―	-19.24%	0.52%	-3.72%	-2120.70%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ASML

ASML Holding

753.43

7.05

0.94%

AMAT

Applied Materials

158.24

-14.71

-8.51%

INTC

Intel

24.61

5.72

30.28%

KLAC

KLA

873.29

177.21

25.46%

LRCX

Lam Research

100.42

27.88

38.43%

TSM

TSMC

235.21

80.14

51.68%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025