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Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)
:NVDA

Nvidia (NVDA) AI Stock Analysis

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Nvidia

(NASDAQ:NVDA)

Rating:85Outperform
Price Target:
$159.00
▲(12.19%Upside)
Nvidia's overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong financial performance and robust technical indicators, which reflect significant growth and positive momentum. Although the valuation suggests a premium, the company's strategic focus on AI and infrastructure positions it well for future expansion. Earnings call insights support a positive outlook, despite some geopolitical risks.
Positive Factors
AI demand
AI demand and visibility remain strong, positioning NVDA as a top pick in the sector.
Data center opportunities
Each gigawatt of data center installation represents a $50bn opportunity for NVDA across its data center stack.
Negative Factors
Competition
Key risks include increased competition from other chipmakers eyeing the AI/ML space, geopolitical risks, and slowdown in AI growth momentum.
Geopolitical risks
Key risks include increased competition from other chipmakers eyeing the AI/ML space, geopolitical risks, and slowdown in AI growth momentum.

Nvidia (NVDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyNvidia generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from the sale of its GPUs, which are utilized in gaming, data centers, and professional visualization markets. The gaming sector remains a significant revenue driver, with Nvidia's GeForce line being particularly popular among gamers. Another major revenue stream comes from data center solutions, where Nvidia's GPUs are used for AI and high-performance computing tasks, catering to businesses and research institutions. Additionally, Nvidia earns from its automotive segment by providing AI-based solutions for autonomous vehicles. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with tech giants and automotive manufacturers, further enhancing its market penetration and revenue potential. Nvidia's software and services offerings, including its AI platforms and cloud-based solutions, contribute to its diversified revenue model, ensuring steady growth across multiple sectors.

Nvidia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from various business segments, indicating which areas are contributing most to Nvidia’s top line and where strategic focus might be needed.
Chart InsightsNVIDIA's data center segment is experiencing explosive growth, with revenue surging due to strong demand for AI infrastructure, particularly from its Blackwell architecture. Despite challenges from export controls affecting the China market, the company is positioned well with a strategic focus on AI solutions. Gaming revenue also shows robust growth, setting a new record. However, the automotive segment faces headwinds, with a slight sequential decline. NVIDIA's strategic initiatives and capital returns underscore its confidence in navigating market challenges and capitalizing on AI-driven opportunities.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Nvidia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 1.82%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While NVIDIA experienced significant revenue growth across multiple segments, including data center, gaming, and networking, challenges in the China market due to export controls and potential long-term impacts on access to the China AI accelerator market pose significant risks. The company is actively expanding its AI and inference capabilities, which could offset these challenges in the future.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue
NVIDIA delivered a strong quarter with revenue of $44 billion, up 69% year over year, exceeding expectations in a challenging environment.
Data Center Growth
Data center revenue reached $39 billion, growing 73% year over year, with Blackwell contributing nearly 70% of data center compute revenue.
AI and Inference Demand Surge
There is a sharp jump in inference demand with Microsoft processing over 100 trillion tokens in Q1, representing a fivefold increase year over year.
Gaming Revenue Increase
Gaming revenue set a record at $3.8 billion, increasing 48% sequentially and 42% year on year.
Networking Revenue Growth
Networking revenue increased by 64% quarter over quarter to $5 billion, driven by strong adoption of NVIDIA's Ethernet solutions.
Strong Shareholder Returns
NVIDIA returned a record $14.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and cash dividends.
Negative Updates
China Export Controls Impact
New export controls on H20 GPUs in China led to a $4.5 billion write-down in inventory and purchase obligations, and $2.5 billion in unsellable H20 revenue.
Potential Loss of China Market
Losing access to the China AI accelerator market, projected to grow to nearly $50 billion, could have a material adverse impact on NVIDIA's business.
Automotive Revenue Decline
Automotive revenue was $567 million, down 1% sequentially, despite a year-on-year increase of 72%.
Company Guidance
During NVIDIA Corporation's First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided several metrics and guidance for the upcoming quarter. NVIDIA reported a strong quarter with revenue reaching $44 billion, a 69% increase year-over-year, driven primarily by data center revenue of $39 billion, which grew 73% year-on-year. The call highlighted the impact of new export controls on the H20 data center GPU, leading to a $4.5 billion charge for inventory and purchase obligations. For the second quarter, NVIDIA expects total revenue of $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins anticipated at 71.8% and 72%, respectively. The company continues to see robust demand for its Blackwell architecture, which contributed significantly to its data center revenue, and forecasts a continued ramp in Blackwell adoption. NVIDIA also highlighted its capital return program, with $14.3 billion returned to shareholders, and discussed its strategic focus on expanding infrastructure capabilities and AI solutions. The call concluded with the outlook that the AI industry is poised for substantial growth, with NVIDIA positioned to capitalize on the expanding market for AI infrastructure and services.

Nvidia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nvidia's financial performance is exceptional, demonstrating strong growth, profitability, and stability. The income statement reflects significant revenue and profit growth, the balance sheet shows a strong equity foundation and minimal leverage, and cash flow metrics indicate excellent cash generation and management.
Income Statement
95
Very Positive
Nvidia's income statement demonstrates robust financial health. The gross profit margin of 75.0% (2025) indicates strong production efficiency. The net profit margin surged to 55.8%, reflecting excellent cost management. Revenue growth is exceptional, with a 114.2% increase from 2024 to 2025, showcasing rapid expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 62.4% and 65.6%, respectively, highlighting operational efficiency and profitability.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, indicating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is outstanding at 91.8%, suggesting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 71.1%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets. Overall, Nvidia maintains a stable financial position with limited leverage risk.
Cash Flow
92
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong liquidity and cash management. Free cash flow grew by 125.2% from 2024 to 2025, underscoring excellent cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.88, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.84 highlights a robust cash flow relative to profits, supporting ongoing operations and investments.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
130.50B60.92B26.97B26.91B16.68B
Gross Profit
97.86B44.30B15.36B17.48B10.40B
EBIT
81.45B32.97B4.22B10.04B4.53B
EBITDA
86.14B35.58B5.99B11.35B5.69B
Net Income Common Stockholders
72.88B29.76B4.37B9.75B4.33B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
43.21B25.98B13.30B21.21B11.56B
Total Assets
111.60B65.73B41.18B44.19B28.79B
Total Debt
10.27B11.06B12.03B11.83B7.72B
Net Debt
1.68B3.78B8.64B9.84B6.87B
Total Liabilities
32.27B22.75B19.08B17.57B11.90B
Stockholders Equity
79.33B42.98B22.10B26.61B16.89B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
60.85B27.02B3.81B8.13B4.69B
Operating Cash Flow
64.09B28.09B5.64B9.11B5.82B
Investing Cash Flow
-20.42B-10.57B7.38B-9.83B-19.68B
Financing Cash Flow
-42.36B-13.63B-11.62B1.86B3.80B

Nvidia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price141.72
Price Trends
50DMA
118.40
Positive
100DMA
122.13
Positive
200DMA
127.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.29
Negative
RSI
67.32
Neutral
STOCH
80.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 141.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.39, above the 50-day MA of 118.40, and above the 200-day MA of 127.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVDA.

Nvidia Risk Analysis

Nvidia disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nvidia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
85
Outperform
$3.46T45.65115.46%0.03%86.17%81.36%
AMAMD
81
Outperform
$188.39B85.173.90%21.71%99.00%
81
Outperform
$163.87B15.2042.21%2.28%16.15%32.28%
80
Outperform
$1.16T92.7818.98%0.91%33.85%14.43%
TSTSM
77
Outperform
$862.03B26.4032.11%0.94%35.45%47.97%
62
Neutral
$11.81B10.34-7.44%2.91%7.41%-7.93%
45
Neutral
$87.50B-18.66%2.49%-3.97%-562.40%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NVDA
Nvidia
141.72
19.97
16.40%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
116.19
-44.15
-27.54%
AVGO
Broadcom
246.93
104.62
73.52%
INTC
Intel
20.06
-10.66
-34.70%
QCOM
Qualcomm
149.24
-55.61
-27.15%
TSM
TSMC
205.18
38.85
23.36%

Nvidia Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Nvidia Appoints Ellen Ochoa to Board of Directors
Neutral
Nov 7, 2024

NVIDIA Corporation has appointed Ellen Ochoa to its Board of Directors, increasing the board count to thirteen. Ochoa will join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, receiving initial and pro-rated equity grants as part of her compensation, along with a cash retainer. This move reflects NVIDIA’s commitment to strengthening its governance and leadership framework.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.