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Nvidia (NVDA)
NASDAQ:NVDA

Nvidia (NVDA) AI Stock Analysis

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Nvidia

(NASDAQ:NVDA)

Rating:85Outperform
Price Target:
$159.00
▲(9.29%Upside)
Nvidia's overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong financial performance and robust technical indicators, which reflect significant growth and positive momentum. Although the valuation suggests a premium, the company's strategic focus on AI and infrastructure positions it well for future expansion. Earnings call insights support a positive outlook, despite some geopolitical risks.
Positive Factors
AI Infrastructure
NVIDIA's significant beat/raise after accounting for $2.5B/$8.0B H20 impact in F1Q/F2Q once again demonstrate that demand for AI infrastructure remains very robust, and NVIDIA is leading the industry.
Market Leadership
NVIDIA continues to be the market leader.
Strategic Partnerships
Strategic partnership to build AI cloud infrastructure with French startup Mistral AI.
Negative Factors
China Market Competition
The team assumes no revenue going forward from China domestic customers due to adequate alternatives like Huawei XPU accelerator.
China Restrictions
China-related revenues will see a significant decrease in F2Q, with limited future options given strict restrictions at the moment.
Revenue Impact
Ex-China restriction, NVIDIA's revenue would have been $10B higher across JanQ/AprQ, a healthy beat above Street pre-adjustments and larger in magnitude than NVIDIA's recent standard.

Nvidia (NVDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNvidia Corporation, commonly known as Nvidia, is a leading technology company specializing in the design and manufacturing of graphics processing units (GPUs) and related software. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Nvidia operates primarily in the computing and semiconductor sectors. The company is renowned for its high-performance GPUs, which are used in a wide range of applications, including gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive technology. Nvidia's innovations in AI computing have positioned it as a key player in the advancement of artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies.
How the Company Makes MoneyNvidia generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from the sale of its GPUs, which are utilized in gaming, data centers, and professional visualization markets. The gaming sector remains a significant revenue driver, with Nvidia's GeForce line being particularly popular among gamers. Another major revenue stream comes from data center solutions, where Nvidia's GPUs are used for AI and high-performance computing tasks, catering to businesses and research institutions. Additionally, Nvidia earns from its automotive segment by providing AI-based solutions for autonomous vehicles. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with tech giants and automotive manufacturers, further enhancing its market penetration and revenue potential. Nvidia's software and services offerings, including its AI platforms and cloud-based solutions, contribute to its diversified revenue model, ensuring steady growth across multiple sectors.

Nvidia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from various business segments, indicating which areas are contributing most to Nvidia’s top line and where strategic focus might be needed.
Chart InsightsNVIDIA's data center segment is experiencing explosive growth, with revenue surging due to strong demand for AI infrastructure, particularly from its Blackwell architecture. Despite challenges from export controls affecting the China market, the company is positioned well with a strategic focus on AI solutions. Gaming revenue also shows robust growth, setting a new record. However, the automotive segment faces headwinds, with a slight sequential decline. NVIDIA's strategic initiatives and capital returns underscore its confidence in navigating market challenges and capitalizing on AI-driven opportunities.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Nvidia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 4.53%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While NVIDIA experienced significant revenue growth across multiple segments, including data center, gaming, and networking, challenges in the China market due to export controls and potential long-term impacts on access to the China AI accelerator market pose significant risks. The company is actively expanding its AI and inference capabilities, which could offset these challenges in the future.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue
NVIDIA delivered a strong quarter with revenue of $44 billion, up 69% year over year, exceeding expectations in a challenging environment.
Data Center Growth
Data center revenue reached $39 billion, growing 73% year over year, with Blackwell contributing nearly 70% of data center compute revenue.
AI and Inference Demand Surge
There is a sharp jump in inference demand with Microsoft processing over 100 trillion tokens in Q1, representing a fivefold increase year over year.
Gaming Revenue Increase
Gaming revenue set a record at $3.8 billion, increasing 48% sequentially and 42% year on year.
Networking Revenue Growth
Networking revenue increased by 64% quarter over quarter to $5 billion, driven by strong adoption of NVIDIA's Ethernet solutions.
Strong Shareholder Returns
NVIDIA returned a record $14.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and cash dividends.
Negative Updates
China Export Controls Impact
New export controls on H20 GPUs in China led to a $4.5 billion write-down in inventory and purchase obligations, and $2.5 billion in unsellable H20 revenue.
Potential Loss of China Market
Losing access to the China AI accelerator market, projected to grow to nearly $50 billion, could have a material adverse impact on NVIDIA's business.
Automotive Revenue Decline
Automotive revenue was $567 million, down 1% sequentially, despite a year-on-year increase of 72%.
Company Guidance
During NVIDIA Corporation's First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided several metrics and guidance for the upcoming quarter. NVIDIA reported a strong quarter with revenue reaching $44 billion, a 69% increase year-over-year, driven primarily by data center revenue of $39 billion, which grew 73% year-on-year. The call highlighted the impact of new export controls on the H20 data center GPU, leading to a $4.5 billion charge for inventory and purchase obligations. For the second quarter, NVIDIA expects total revenue of $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins anticipated at 71.8% and 72%, respectively. The company continues to see robust demand for its Blackwell architecture, which contributed significantly to its data center revenue, and forecasts a continued ramp in Blackwell adoption. NVIDIA also highlighted its capital return program, with $14.3 billion returned to shareholders, and discussed its strategic focus on expanding infrastructure capabilities and AI solutions. The call concluded with the outlook that the AI industry is poised for substantial growth, with NVIDIA positioned to capitalize on the expanding market for AI infrastructure and services.

Nvidia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nvidia shows exceptional financial performance with high revenue and profit growth, an efficient capital structure, and robust cash generation. The income statement reflects strong demand and market expansion, while the balance sheet indicates financial stability with low leverage. Despite high profitability posing potential risks if growth slows, Nvidia's financial foundation supports future growth.
Income Statement
95
Very Positive
Nvidia demonstrates exceptional growth and profitability in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 70.13%, indicating strong cost management. The net profit margin stands at 51.68%, reflecting high profitability. Revenue growth is outstanding, with a 146.25% increase from the prior year, underscoring robust demand and market expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins are impressive at 58.02% and 61.25%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, Nvidia's income statement is a testament to its leading position in the semiconductor industry.
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Nvidia's balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is a remarkable 91.56%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder capital. The equity ratio stands at 66.94%, suggesting a strong equity position relative to total assets. Nvidia's balance sheet highlights a well-capitalized company with prudent financial management, though the high ROE may indicate potential risks if growth slows.
Cash Flow
92
Very Positive
Nvidia's cash flow analysis reveals strong operational cash generation with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.99, indicating high conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow has grown significantly by 18.42% from the previous year, reflecting effective capital expenditure management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.94, showing efficient cash utilization. Nvidia's cash flow statements underscore robust liquidity and financial flexibility, supporting continued growth and investment.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
148.51B130.50B60.92B26.97B26.91B16.68B
Gross Profit
104.12B97.86B44.30B15.36B17.48B10.40B
EBIT
86.18B81.45B32.97B4.22B10.04B4.53B
EBITDA
90.97B86.14B35.58B5.99B11.35B5.69B
Net Income Common Stockholders
76.77B72.88B29.76B4.37B9.75B4.33B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
52.69B43.21B25.98B13.30B21.21B11.56B
Total Assets
125.25B111.60B65.73B41.18B44.19B28.79B
Total Debt
10.29B10.27B11.06B12.03B11.83B7.72B
Net Debt
-4.95B1.68B3.78B8.64B9.84B6.87B
Total Liabilities
41.41B32.27B22.75B19.08B17.57B11.90B
Stockholders Equity
83.84B79.33B42.98B22.10B26.61B16.89B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
72.06B60.85B27.02B3.81B8.13B4.69B
Operating Cash Flow
76.16B64.09B28.09B5.64B9.11B5.82B
Investing Cash Flow
-19.94B-20.42B-10.57B7.38B-9.83B-19.68B
Financing Cash Flow
-48.57B-42.36B-13.63B-11.62B1.86B3.80B

Nvidia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price145.48
Price Trends
50DMA
124.53
Positive
100DMA
122.46
Positive
200DMA
127.92
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.39
Positive
RSI
66.26
Neutral
STOCH
79.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 145.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.67, above the 50-day MA of 124.53, and above the 200-day MA of 127.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVDA.

Nvidia Risk Analysis

Nvidia disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nvidia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
85
Outperform
$3.53T46.61115.46%0.03%86.17%81.36%
AMAMD
81
Outperform
$204.93B93.173.90%21.71%99.00%
80
Outperform
$1.17T93.7418.98%0.94%33.85%14.43%
80
Outperform
$169.60B15.7342.21%2.32%16.15%32.28%
TSTSM
77
Outperform
$899.82B27.7532.11%1.28%35.45%47.97%
62
Neutral
$11.95B9.93-7.21%4.85%7.32%-8.25%
47
Neutral
$90.47B-18.66%2.33%-3.97%-562.40%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NVDA
Nvidia
145.48
14.74
11.27%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
126.79
-34.99
-21.63%
AVGO
Broadcom
251.26
79.90
46.63%
INTC
Intel
21.49
-8.94
-29.38%
QCOM
Qualcomm
153.63
-57.21
-27.13%
TSM
TSMC
213.50
40.07
23.10%

Nvidia Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Nvidia Appoints Ellen Ochoa to Board of Directors
Neutral
Nov 7, 2024

NVIDIA Corporation has appointed Ellen Ochoa to its Board of Directors, increasing the board count to thirteen. Ochoa will join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, receiving initial and pro-rated equity grants as part of her compensation, along with a cash retainer. This move reflects NVIDIA’s commitment to strengthening its governance and leadership framework.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.