Nvidia (NVDA) AI Stock Analysis

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Nvidia

(NASDAQ:NVDA)

Rating:85Outperform

Price Target:

$159.00

▲(12.19%Upside)

Nvidia's overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong financial performance and robust technical indicators, which reflect significant growth and positive momentum. Although the valuation suggests a premium, the company's strategic focus on AI and infrastructure positions it well for future expansion. Earnings call insights support a positive outlook, despite some geopolitical risks.

Positive Factors

AI demand

AI demand and visibility remain strong, positioning NVDA as a top pick in the sector.

Data center opportunities

Each gigawatt of data center installation represents a $50bn opportunity for NVDA across its data center stack.

Negative Factors

Competition

Key risks include increased competition from other chipmakers eyeing the AI/ML space, geopolitical risks, and slowdown in AI growth momentum.

Geopolitical risks

Key risks include increased competition from other chipmakers eyeing the AI/ML space, geopolitical risks, and slowdown in AI growth momentum.

Nvidia (NVDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.46T

Dividend Yield0.03%

Average Volume (3M)211.64M

Price to Earnings (P/E)45.6

Beta (1Y)2.32

Revenue Growth86.17%

EPS Growth81.36%

CountryUS

Employees36,000

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength83

IndustrySemiconductors

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.81

Shares Outstanding24,400,000,000

10 Day Avg. Volume217,752,048

30 Day Avg. Volume211,640,108

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.11

Price to Book (P/B)30.14

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio39.15

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$172.36

Price Target Upside21.62% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering40

Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyNvidia generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from the sale of its GPUs, which are utilized in gaming, data centers, and professional visualization markets. The gaming sector remains a significant revenue driver, with Nvidia's GeForce line being particularly popular among gamers. Another major revenue stream comes from data center solutions, where Nvidia's GPUs are used for AI and high-performance computing tasks, catering to businesses and research institutions. Additionally, Nvidia earns from its automotive segment by providing AI-based solutions for autonomous vehicles. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with tech giants and automotive manufacturers, further enhancing its market penetration and revenue potential. Nvidia's software and services offerings, including its AI platforms and cloud-based solutions, contribute to its diversified revenue model, ensuring steady growth across multiple sectors.

Nvidia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from various business segments, indicating which areas are contributing most to Nvidia’s top line and where strategic focus might be needed.

Chart InsightsNVIDIA's data center segment is experiencing explosive growth, with revenue surging due to strong demand for AI infrastructure, particularly from its Blackwell architecture. Despite challenges from export controls affecting the China market, the company is positioned well with a strategic focus on AI solutions. Gaming revenue also shows robust growth, setting a new record. However, the automotive segment faces headwinds, with a slight sequential decline. NVIDIA's strategic initiatives and capital returns underscore its confidence in navigating market challenges and capitalizing on AI-driven opportunities.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Nvidia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: 1.82%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

While NVIDIA experienced significant revenue growth across multiple segments, including data center, gaming, and networking, challenges in the China market due to export controls and potential long-term impacts on access to the China AI accelerator market pose significant risks. The company is actively expanding its AI and inference capabilities, which could offset these challenges in the future.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Record-Breaking Revenue

NVIDIA delivered a strong quarter with revenue of $44 billion, up 69% year over year, exceeding expectations in a challenging environment.

Data Center Growth

Data center revenue reached $39 billion, growing 73% year over year, with Blackwell contributing nearly 70% of data center compute revenue.

AI and Inference Demand Surge

There is a sharp jump in inference demand with Microsoft processing over 100 trillion tokens in Q1, representing a fivefold increase year over year.

Gaming Revenue Increase

Gaming revenue set a record at $3.8 billion, increasing 48% sequentially and 42% year on year.

Networking Revenue Growth

Networking revenue increased by 64% quarter over quarter to $5 billion, driven by strong adoption of NVIDIA's Ethernet solutions.

Strong Shareholder Returns

NVIDIA returned a record $14.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and cash dividends.

Negative Updates

China Export Controls Impact

New export controls on H20 GPUs in China led to a $4.5 billion write-down in inventory and purchase obligations, and $2.5 billion in unsellable H20 revenue.

Potential Loss of China Market

Losing access to the China AI accelerator market, projected to grow to nearly $50 billion, could have a material adverse impact on NVIDIA's business.

Automotive Revenue Decline

Automotive revenue was $567 million, down 1% sequentially, despite a year-on-year increase of 72%.

Company Guidance

During NVIDIA Corporation's First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided several metrics and guidance for the upcoming quarter. NVIDIA reported a strong quarter with revenue reaching $44 billion, a 69% increase year-over-year, driven primarily by data center revenue of $39 billion, which grew 73% year-on-year. The call highlighted the impact of new export controls on the H20 data center GPU, leading to a $4.5 billion charge for inventory and purchase obligations. For the second quarter, NVIDIA expects total revenue of $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins anticipated at 71.8% and 72%, respectively. The company continues to see robust demand for its Blackwell architecture, which contributed significantly to its data center revenue, and forecasts a continued ramp in Blackwell adoption. NVIDIA also highlighted its capital return program, with $14.3 billion returned to shareholders, and discussed its strategic focus on expanding infrastructure capabilities and AI solutions. The call concluded with the outlook that the AI industry is poised for substantial growth, with NVIDIA positioned to capitalize on the expanding market for AI infrastructure and services.

Nvidia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nvidia's financial performance is exceptional, demonstrating strong growth, profitability, and stability. The income statement reflects significant revenue and profit growth, the balance sheet shows a strong equity foundation and minimal leverage, and cash flow metrics indicate excellent cash generation and management.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Nvidia's income statement demonstrates robust financial health. The gross profit margin of 75.0% (2025) indicates strong production efficiency. The net profit margin surged to 55.8%, reflecting excellent cost management. Revenue growth is exceptional, with a 114.2% increase from 2024 to 2025, showcasing rapid expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 62.4% and 65.6%, respectively, highlighting operational efficiency and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, indicating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is outstanding at 91.8%, suggesting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 71.1%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets. Overall, Nvidia maintains a stable financial position with limited leverage risk.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals strong liquidity and cash management. Free cash flow grew by 125.2% from 2024 to 2025, underscoring excellent cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.88, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.84 highlights a robust cash flow relative to profits, supporting ongoing operations and investments.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
130.50B	60.92B	26.97B	26.91B	16.68B
	Gross Profit
97.86B	44.30B	15.36B	17.48B	10.40B
	EBIT
81.45B	32.97B	4.22B	10.04B	4.53B
	EBITDA
86.14B	35.58B	5.99B	11.35B	5.69B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
72.88B	29.76B	4.37B	9.75B	4.33B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
43.21B	25.98B	13.30B	21.21B	11.56B
	Total Assets
111.60B	65.73B	41.18B	44.19B	28.79B
	Total Debt
10.27B	11.06B	12.03B	11.83B	7.72B
	Net Debt
1.68B	3.78B	8.64B	9.84B	6.87B
	Total Liabilities
32.27B	22.75B	19.08B	17.57B	11.90B
	Stockholders Equity
79.33B	42.98B	22.10B	26.61B	16.89B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
60.85B	27.02B	3.81B	8.13B	4.69B
	Operating Cash Flow
64.09B	28.09B	5.64B	9.11B	5.82B
	Investing Cash Flow
-20.42B	-10.57B	7.38B	-9.83B	-19.68B
	Financing Cash Flow
-42.36B	-13.63B	-11.62B	1.86B	3.80B

Nvidia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price141.72

Price Trends

50DMA

118.40

Positive

100DMA

122.13

Positive

200DMA

127.21

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

6.29

Negative

RSI

67.32

Neutral

STOCH

80.48

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 141.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.39, above the 50-day MA of 118.40, and above the 200-day MA of 127.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVDA.

Nvidia Risk Analysis

Nvidia disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nvidia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVDA	85 Outperform	$3.46T	45.65	115.46%	0.03%	86.17%	81.36%
AMD	81 Outperform	$188.39B	85.17	3.90%	―	21.71%	99.00%
QCOM	81 Outperform	$163.87B	15.20	42.21%	2.28%	16.15%	32.28%
AVGO	80 Outperform	$1.16T	92.78	18.98%	0.91%	33.85%	14.43%
TSM	77 Outperform	$862.03B	26.40	32.11%	0.94%	35.45%	47.97%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$11.81B	10.34	-7.44%	2.91%	7.41%	-7.93%
INTC	45 Neutral	$87.50B	―	-18.66%	2.49%	-3.97%	-562.40%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NVDA

Nvidia

141.72

19.97

16.40%

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

116.19

-44.15

-27.54%

AVGO

Broadcom

246.93

104.62

73.52%

INTC

Intel

20.06

-10.66

-34.70%

QCOM

Qualcomm

149.24

-55.61

-27.15%

TSM

TSMC

205.18

38.85

23.36%

Nvidia Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Nvidia Appoints Ellen Ochoa to Board of Directors

Neutral

Nov 7, 2024

NVIDIA Corporation has appointed Ellen Ochoa to its Board of Directors, increasing the board count to thirteen. Ochoa will join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, receiving initial and pro-rated equity grants as part of her compensation, along with a cash retainer. This move reflects NVIDIA’s commitment to strengthening its governance and leadership framework.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.