Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)
NASDAQ:NVDA
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Nvidia
(NASDAQ:NVDA)
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Rating:87Outperform
Price Target:
$251.00
▲(24.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by standout financial performance (best-in-class margins, massive and high-quality free cash flow, and a very strong balance sheet) plus supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is a moderate offset due to a premium P/E, while the earnings call adds confidence via strong guidance but highlights execution/geopolitical risks (China uncertainty, supply constraints, rising OpEx and commitments).
Positive Factors
Data center leadership & scale
NVIDIA's dominant data‑center position reflects platform leadership in AI training and inference, driving structural demand across hyperscalers and enterprises. Scale yields network effects for software, partner integrations and unit economics that support durable high-margin sales and long sales visibility.
Negative Factors
China revenue & geopolitical risk
Export controls and China uncertainty structurally constrain a large addressable market and increase revenue visibility risk. Prolonged restrictions or development of local Chinese competitors could reduce TAM and force strategic changes in go‑to‑market or product design, impacting long‑term growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Data center leadership & scale
NVIDIA's dominant data‑center position reflects platform leadership in AI training and inference, driving structural demand across hyperscalers and enterprises. Scale yields network effects for software, partner integrations and unit economics that support durable high-margin sales and long sales visibility.
Read all positive factors
Nvidia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Splits sales across regions (U.S., China, EMEA, APAC) to show where Nvidia earns its money and how exposed it is to regional demand swings, currency moves, or trade and regulatory risks.
Splits sales across regions (U.S., China, EMEA, APAC) to show where Nvidia earns its money and how exposed it is to regional demand swings, currency moves, or trade and regulatory risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNvidia (NVDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.38T
Dividend Yield0.02%
Average Volume (3M)150.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.4
Beta (1Y)2.08
Revenue Growth65.47%
EPS Growth66.12%
CountryUS
Employees36,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.93
Shares Outstanding24,220,525,000
10 Day Avg. Volume156,076,460
30 Day Avg. Volume150,150,163
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)28.81
Price to Sales (P/S)20.99
P/FCF Ratio46.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue24.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit34.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda36.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$281.97Price Target Upside39.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering42
EPS Forecast (FY)8.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$371.01B
Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and ...
How the Company Makes Money
NVIDIA primarily makes money by selling computing hardware and related software that enable accelerated workloads, with revenue concentrated in a few major platforms. (1) Data Center: The largest driver of revenue in recent years comes from data c...
Nvidia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call is strongly positive: NVIDIA reported record revenue, margins, operating income and free cash flow, with outsized growth in data center and networking and multiple product/platform wins (Blackwell, Rubin/Vera) and deepening partnerships. Notable challenges include China revenue uncertainty, expected near-term supply constraints for gaming and rising operating expenses and inventory/purchase commitments that increase execution risk. Overall momentum, product leadership and large cash generation outweigh the risks highlighted.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Growth
Total revenue of $68.0B in Q4, up 73% year-over-year, with record sequential growth driven by a $11B increase in data center revenue.
Negative Updates
China Revenue Uncertainty
Small amounts of H200 products were approved for China but NVIDIA reported no revenue yet and does not assume any China data center compute revenue in its outlook; management acknowledged potential long-term disruption from Chinese competitors.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Growth
Total revenue of $68.0B in Q4, up 73% year-over-year, with record sequential growth driven by a $11B increase in data center revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NVIDIA guided Q1 FY2027 revenue of $78.0 billion ±2% (with most growth driven by Data Center and no Data Center compute revenue from China assumed), GAAP gross margin of ~74.9% and non‑GAAP gross margin of ~75.0% (each ±50 bps) and reiterated full‑year gross margins in the mid‑70s; GAAP operating expenses of roughly $7.7 billion and non‑GAAP operating expenses of roughly $7.5 billion for the quarter (including $1.9 billion of stock‑based compensation, which will now be included in non‑GAAP results), full‑year non‑GAAP operating expense growth expected in the low‑40s % year‑over‑year, and a full‑year GAAP and non‑GAAP tax rate outlook of 7%–19% (excluding discrete items).Nvidia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
97
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
95
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 215.94B | 130.50B | 60.92B | 26.97B | 26.91B |
| Gross Profit | 153.46B | 97.86B | 44.30B | 15.36B | 17.48B |
| EBITDA | 144.55B | 86.14B | 35.58B | 5.99B | 11.35B |
| Net Income | 120.07B | 72.88B | 29.76B | 4.37B | 9.75B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 206.80B | 111.60B | 65.73B | 41.18B | 44.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 62.56B | 43.21B | 25.98B | 13.30B | 21.21B |
| Total Debt | 11.41B | 10.27B | 11.06B | 12.03B | 11.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.51B | 32.27B | 22.75B | 19.08B | 17.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 157.29B | 79.33B | 42.98B | 22.10B | 26.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 96.68B | 60.85B | 27.02B | 3.81B | 8.13B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 102.72B | 64.09B | 28.09B | 5.64B | 9.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.23B | -20.42B | -10.57B | 7.38B | -9.83B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -48.47B | -42.36B | -13.63B | -11.62B | 1.86B |
Nvidia Technical Analysis
Positive
201.68
Price Trends
194.72
Positive
190.29
Positive
186.42
Positive
Market Momentum
8.60
Negative
59.95
Neutral
60.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 201.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 212.35, above the 50-day MA of 194.72, and above the 200-day MA of 186.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVDA.
Nvidia Risk Analysis
Nvidia disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nvidia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
87 Outperform | $5.38T | 26.37 | 104.37% | 0.02% | 65.47% | 66.12% | |
82 Outperform | $214.64B | 4.59 | 40.19% | 2.01% | 5.21% | -6.72% | |
82 Outperform | $1.83T | 24.44 | 36.93% | 0.82% | 37.40% | 54.80% | |
79 Outperform | $1.99T | 53.40 | 32.85% | 0.69% | 25.22% | 145.70% | |
78 Outperform | $686.47B | 60.29 | 8.05% | ― | 34.97% | 123.87% | |
63 Neutral | $543.66B | -14.70 | -2.95% | ― | 1.36% | 86.07% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
NVDA
Nvidia
220.61
86.26
64.21%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
414.05
300.54
264.77%
AVGO
Broadcom
411.07
181.25
78.87%
INTC
Intel
110.80
89.53
420.92%
QCOM
Qualcomm
195.61
45.31
30.15%
TSM
TSMC
392.61
201.01
104.91%
Nvidia Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Nvidia Adds Suzanne Nora Johnson to Board
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Nvidia’s board of directors appointed Suzanne Nora Johnson as a new board member and Audit Committee member, effective July 13, 2026, increasing the board size from ten to eleven directors. Her start date was set later to acc...
Executive/Board Changes
Nvidia Names New Chief Accounting Officer Amid Transition
Neutral
Apr 27, 2026
On April 24, 2026, Nvidia announced that longtime Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer Donald Robertson plans to retire from his VP and CAO roles effective May 4, 2026, and will stay on as VP, Finance supporting projects until July 1, 2026,...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Nvidia Links Executive Bonuses to Fiscal 2027 Revenue Performance
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Nvidia’s board compensation committee approved a Fiscal Year 2027 Variable Compensation Plan that ties executive cash bonuses to company revenue performance for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027. The plan establishes ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.