Nvidia (NVDA) AI Stock Analysis

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Nvidia

(NASDAQ:NVDA)

Rating:85Outperform

Price Target:

$159.00

▲(9.66%Upside)

Nvidia's overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong financial performance and robust technical indicators, which reflect significant growth and positive momentum. Although the valuation suggests a premium, the company's strategic focus on AI and infrastructure positions it well for future expansion. Earnings call insights support a positive outlook, despite some geopolitical risks.

Positive Factors

AI Infrastructure Expansion

Significant AI investment in Europe was the most notable takeaway, with NVDA highlighting country and regional-level proliferation of AI Factories, driving a 10x increase in Europe's AI infrastructure capacity.

Enterprise AI Market

NVDA's deepening partnership with Cisco and support from a broad ecosystem of server partners emphasize its strong position in the enterprise AI market.

Negative Factors

Revenue Challenges

The team assumes no revenue going forward from China domestic customers due to adequate alternatives like Huawei XPU accelerator.

Nvidia (NVDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.51T

Dividend Yield0.03%

Average Volume (3M)208.16M

Price to Earnings (P/E)46.4

Beta (1Y)2.32

Revenue Growth86.17%

EPS Growth81.36%

CountryUS

Employees36,000

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength82

IndustrySemiconductors

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.81

Shares Outstanding24,400,000,000

10 Day Avg. Volume218,923,620

30 Day Avg. Volume208,156,540

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.78

Price to Book (P/B)12.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio34.27

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.04

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.28

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.33

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.44

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$172.36

Price Target Upside18.87% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering40

Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyNvidia generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from the sale of its GPUs, which are utilized in gaming, data centers, and professional visualization markets. The gaming sector remains a significant revenue driver, with Nvidia's GeForce line being particularly popular among gamers. Another major revenue stream comes from data center solutions, where Nvidia's GPUs are used for AI and high-performance computing tasks, catering to businesses and research institutions. Additionally, Nvidia earns from its automotive segment by providing AI-based solutions for autonomous vehicles. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with tech giants and automotive manufacturers, further enhancing its market penetration and revenue potential. Nvidia's software and services offerings, including its AI platforms and cloud-based solutions, contribute to its diversified revenue model, ensuring steady growth across multiple sectors.

Nvidia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from various business segments, indicating which areas are contributing most to Nvidia’s top line and where strategic focus might be needed.

Chart InsightsNVIDIA's data center segment is experiencing explosive growth, with revenue surging due to strong demand for AI infrastructure, particularly from its Blackwell architecture. Despite challenges from export controls affecting the China market, the company is positioned well with a strategic focus on AI solutions. Gaming revenue also shows robust growth, setting a new record. However, the automotive segment faces headwinds, with a slight sequential decline. NVIDIA's strategic initiatives and capital returns underscore its confidence in navigating market challenges and capitalizing on AI-driven opportunities.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Nvidia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: 4.18%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

While NVIDIA experienced significant revenue growth across multiple segments, including data center, gaming, and networking, challenges in the China market due to export controls and potential long-term impacts on access to the China AI accelerator market pose significant risks. The company is actively expanding its AI and inference capabilities, which could offset these challenges in the future.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Record-Breaking Revenue

NVIDIA delivered a strong quarter with revenue of $44 billion, up 69% year over year, exceeding expectations in a challenging environment.

Data Center Growth

Data center revenue reached $39 billion, growing 73% year over year, with Blackwell contributing nearly 70% of data center compute revenue.

AI and Inference Demand Surge

There is a sharp jump in inference demand with Microsoft processing over 100 trillion tokens in Q1, representing a fivefold increase year over year.

Gaming Revenue Increase

Gaming revenue set a record at $3.8 billion, increasing 48% sequentially and 42% year on year.

Networking Revenue Growth

Networking revenue increased by 64% quarter over quarter to $5 billion, driven by strong adoption of NVIDIA's Ethernet solutions.

Strong Shareholder Returns

NVIDIA returned a record $14.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and cash dividends.

Negative Updates

China Export Controls Impact

New export controls on H20 GPUs in China led to a $4.5 billion write-down in inventory and purchase obligations, and $2.5 billion in unsellable H20 revenue.

Potential Loss of China Market

Losing access to the China AI accelerator market, projected to grow to nearly $50 billion, could have a material adverse impact on NVIDIA's business.

Automotive Revenue Decline

Automotive revenue was $567 million, down 1% sequentially, despite a year-on-year increase of 72%.

Company Guidance

During NVIDIA Corporation's First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided several metrics and guidance for the upcoming quarter. NVIDIA reported a strong quarter with revenue reaching $44 billion, a 69% increase year-over-year, driven primarily by data center revenue of $39 billion, which grew 73% year-on-year. The call highlighted the impact of new export controls on the H20 data center GPU, leading to a $4.5 billion charge for inventory and purchase obligations. For the second quarter, NVIDIA expects total revenue of $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins anticipated at 71.8% and 72%, respectively. The company continues to see robust demand for its Blackwell architecture, which contributed significantly to its data center revenue, and forecasts a continued ramp in Blackwell adoption. NVIDIA also highlighted its capital return program, with $14.3 billion returned to shareholders, and discussed its strategic focus on expanding infrastructure capabilities and AI solutions. The call concluded with the outlook that the AI industry is poised for substantial growth, with NVIDIA positioned to capitalize on the expanding market for AI infrastructure and services.

Nvidia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nvidia shows exceptional financial performance with high revenue and profit growth, an efficient capital structure, and robust cash generation. The income statement reflects strong demand and market expansion, while the balance sheet indicates financial stability with low leverage. Despite high profitability posing potential risks if growth slows, Nvidia's financial foundation supports future growth.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Nvidia demonstrates exceptional growth and profitability in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 70.13%, indicating strong cost management. The net profit margin stands at 51.68%, reflecting high profitability. Revenue growth is outstanding, with a 146.25% increase from the prior year, underscoring robust demand and market expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins are impressive at 58.02% and 61.25%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, Nvidia's income statement is a testament to its leading position in the semiconductor industry.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

Nvidia's balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is a remarkable 91.56%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder capital. The equity ratio stands at 66.94%, suggesting a strong equity position relative to total assets. Nvidia's balance sheet highlights a well-capitalized company with prudent financial management, though the high ROE may indicate potential risks if growth slows.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Nvidia's cash flow analysis reveals strong operational cash generation with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.99, indicating high conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow has grown significantly by 18.42% from the previous year, reflecting effective capital expenditure management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.94, showing efficient cash utilization. Nvidia's cash flow statements underscore robust liquidity and financial flexibility, supporting continued growth and investment.

TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
148.51B	130.50B	60.92B	26.97B	26.91B	16.68B
	Gross Profit
104.12B	97.86B	44.30B	15.36B	17.48B	10.40B
	EBIT
86.18B	81.45B	32.97B	4.22B	10.04B	4.53B
	EBITDA
90.97B	86.14B	35.58B	5.99B	11.35B	5.69B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
76.77B	72.88B	29.76B	4.37B	9.75B	4.33B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
52.69B	43.21B	25.98B	13.30B	21.21B	11.56B
	Total Assets
125.25B	111.60B	65.73B	41.18B	44.19B	28.79B
	Total Debt
10.29B	10.27B	11.06B	12.03B	11.83B	7.72B
	Net Debt
-4.95B	1.68B	3.78B	8.64B	9.84B	6.87B
	Total Liabilities
41.41B	32.27B	22.75B	19.08B	17.57B	11.90B
	Stockholders Equity
83.84B	79.33B	42.98B	22.10B	26.61B	16.89B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
72.06B	60.85B	27.02B	3.81B	8.13B	4.69B
	Operating Cash Flow
76.16B	64.09B	28.09B	5.64B	9.11B	5.82B
	Investing Cash Flow
-19.94B	-20.42B	-10.57B	7.38B	-9.83B	-19.68B
	Financing Cash Flow
-48.57B	-42.36B	-13.63B	-11.62B	1.86B	3.80B

Nvidia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price145.00

Price Trends

50DMA

121.09

Positive

100DMA

122.48

Positive

200DMA

127.53

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

6.11

Positive

RSI

69.32

Neutral

STOCH

91.11

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 145 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.86, above the 50-day MA of 121.09, and above the 200-day MA of 127.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVDA.

Nvidia Risk Analysis

Nvidia disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nvidia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVDA	85 Outperform	$3.51T	46.37	115.46%	0.03%	86.17%	81.36%
AMD	81 Outperform	$196.42B	86.86	3.90%	―	21.71%	99.00%
AVGO	80 Outperform	$1.19T	95.07	18.98%	0.93%	33.85%	14.43%
QCOM	80 Outperform	$174.72B	16.20	42.21%	2.23%	16.15%	32.28%
TSM	77 Outperform	$908.81B	27.33	32.11%	1.29%	35.45%	47.97%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$11.92B	10.48	-7.50%	2.95%	7.40%	-8.18%
INTC	60 Neutral	$96.31B	―	-18.66%	2.42%	-3.97%	-562.40%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NVDA

Nvidia

145.00

15.43

11.91%

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

118.50

-41.40

-25.89%

AVGO

Broadcom

256.07

90.20

54.38%

INTC

Intel

20.77

-9.50

-31.38%

QCOM

Qualcomm

158.70

-54.43

-25.54%

TSM

TSMC

215.43

44.45

26.00%

Nvidia Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Nvidia Appoints Ellen Ochoa to Board of Directors

Neutral

Nov 7, 2024

NVIDIA Corporation has appointed Ellen Ochoa to its Board of Directors, increasing the board count to thirteen. Ochoa will join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, receiving initial and pro-rated equity grants as part of her compensation, along with a cash retainer. This move reflects NVIDIA’s commitment to strengthening its governance and leadership framework.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.