Nvidia (NVDA) AI Stock Analysis

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Nvidia

(NASDAQ:NVDA)

80Outperform

Nvidia's overall stock score is bolstered by its robust financial performance, evidenced by significant revenue growth and strong profitability. Technical indicators show moderate strength but suggest caution due to overbought conditions and potential resistance levels. The valuation appears high, reflecting market optimism but also potential risks of overvaluation. Positive earnings call sentiment and strong guidance further support the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Demand and Growth

Strong demand for AI infrastructure is supported by positive data points from hyperscale capex, cloud revenues, and trade data.

International Agreements

Nvidia's deal with Saudi company HUMAIN is seen as a positive start to a new country-to-country negotiation approach by the US government.

Market Position

Nvidia commands a leading and dominant market share in the AI-chips.

Negative Factors

Customer Dependency

A large customer of SuperMicro, potentially linked to Nvidia, saw a significant revenue decline, which could impact Nvidia's sales.

Inventory Concerns

SuperMicro's inventory increase suggests potential overstocking, which might lead to reduced future orders from Nvidia.

Regulatory and Export Controls

The US Bureau of Industry and Security announced actions to strengthen export controls for overseas AI chips, which could impact Nvidia's international business.

Nvidia (NVDA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.30T

Dividend Yield0.03%

Average Volume (3M)289.45M

Price to Earnings (P/E)46.1

Beta (1Y)2.31

Revenue Growth114.20%

EPS Growth146.26%

CountryUS

Employees36,000

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength80

IndustrySemiconductors

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.89

Shares Outstanding24,387,557,000

10 Day Avg. Volume208,437,854

30 Day Avg. Volume289,447,872

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.11

Price to Book (P/B)30.14

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio39.15

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$164.51

Price Target Upside21.50% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering40

Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNvidia Corporation (NVDA) is a leading technology company primarily engaged in designing and manufacturing graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive markets. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Nvidia has pioneered developments in computer graphics and parallel computing, extending its reach into sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC). Its core products include GPUs under the GeForce brand for gaming, the Quadro brand for professional graphics, the Tesla and DGX brands for AI data centers, and DRIVE platform for autonomous vehicles.

How the Company Makes MoneyNvidia generates revenue through the sale of its GPUs and related hardware, software, and services. The company's primary revenue streams include its Gaming segment, which sells GeForce GPUs for gaming and gaming laptops, and the Data Center segment, where it provides powerful computing solutions for AI, deep learning, and data analytics. Additional revenue comes from the Professional Visualization segment, which targets industries requiring high-end graphics capabilities, and the Automotive segment, which offers AI-based solutions for autonomous driving and in-car infotainment systems. Nvidia also earns through licensing its technology and forming strategic partnerships with leading tech companies, contributing to its sustained growth and innovation in the AI and HPC markets.

Nvidia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business unit contributes to total revenue, indicating core strengths and areas for potential expansion or diversification.

Chart InsightsNvidia's data center segment is driving substantial growth, with fiscal 2025 revenue more than doubling from the previous year, fueled by the successful Blackwell architecture launch. Despite this, the gaming segment faces challenges, with a notable revenue decline due to supply constraints. Automotive and professional visualization segments show promising growth, supported by strategic partnerships and increased demand. Looking ahead, Nvidia anticipates strong demand for Blackwell to continue boosting data center and gaming revenues, although margin pressures during the Blackwell ramp could pose challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Nvidia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nvidia's financial performance is exceptional, demonstrating strong growth, profitability, and stability. The income statement reflects significant revenue and profit growth, the balance sheet shows a strong equity foundation and minimal leverage, and cash flow metrics indicate excellent cash generation and management.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Nvidia's income statement demonstrates robust financial health. The gross profit margin of 75.0% (2025) indicates strong production efficiency. The net profit margin surged to 55.8%, reflecting excellent cost management. Revenue growth is exceptional, with a 114.2% increase from 2024 to 2025, showcasing rapid expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 62.4% and 65.6%, respectively, highlighting operational efficiency and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, indicating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is outstanding at 91.8%, suggesting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 71.1%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets. Overall, Nvidia maintains a stable financial position with limited leverage risk.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals strong liquidity and cash management. Free cash flow grew by 125.2% from 2024 to 2025, underscoring excellent cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.88, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.84 highlights a robust cash flow relative to profits, supporting ongoing operations and investments.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
130.50B	60.92B	26.97B	26.91B	16.68B
	Gross Profit
97.86B	44.30B	15.36B	17.48B	10.40B
	EBIT
81.45B	32.97B	4.22B	10.04B	4.53B
	EBITDA
86.14B	35.58B	5.99B	11.35B	5.69B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
72.88B	29.76B	4.37B	9.75B	4.33B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
43.21B	25.98B	13.30B	21.21B	11.56B
	Total Assets
111.60B	65.73B	41.18B	44.19B	28.79B
	Total Debt
10.27B	11.06B	12.03B	11.83B	7.72B
	Net Debt
1.68B	3.78B	8.64B	9.84B	6.87B
	Total Liabilities
32.27B	22.75B	19.08B	17.57B	11.90B
	Stockholders Equity
79.33B	42.98B	22.10B	26.61B	16.89B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
60.85B	27.02B	3.81B	8.13B	4.69B
	Operating Cash Flow
64.09B	28.09B	5.64B	9.11B	5.82B
	Investing Cash Flow
-20.42B	-10.57B	7.38B	-9.83B	-19.68B
	Financing Cash Flow
-42.36B	-13.63B	-11.62B	1.86B	3.80B

Nvidia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price135.40

Price Trends

50DMA

112.67

Positive

100DMA

122.45

Positive

200DMA

125.48

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

6.13

Negative

RSI

72.92

Negative

STOCH

96.71

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 135.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.28, above the 50-day MA of 112.67, and above the 200-day MA of 125.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.92 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVDA.

Nvidia Risk Analysis

Nvidia disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nvidia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AMD	82 Outperform	$190.87B	84.29	3.90%	―	21.71%	99.00%
NVDA	80 Outperform	$3.30T	46.06	119.18%	0.03%	114.20%	146.26%
QCOM	79 Outperform	$167.44B	15.54	42.21%	2.23%	16.15%	32.28%
TSM	77 Outperform	$860.86B	25.06	32.11%	0.99%	35.45%	47.97%
AVGO	75 Outperform	$1.09T	111.96	14.85%	0.96%	40.30%	-22.79%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$11.62B	10.48	-7.27%	2.93%	7.46%	-10.64%
INTC	48 Neutral	$93.87B	―	-18.66%	2.32%	-3.97%	-562.40%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NVDA

Nvidia

135.40

42.95

46.46%

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

117.17

-47.30

-28.76%

AVGO

Broadcom

228.61

90.77

65.85%

INTC

Intel

21.66

-9.97

-31.52%

QCOM

Qualcomm

152.50

-37.55

-19.76%

TSM

TSMC

194.22

44.19

29.45%

Nvidia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: 3.15%|

Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted NVIDIA's record-breaking revenue and strong growth in data center and automotive segments. However, challenges remain in the gaming and networking sectors, and the company faces margin pressures during the Blackwell ramp. The positive aspects of revenue growth and successful product launches outweigh the lowlights, indicating a generally positive outlook.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record-Breaking Quarterly Revenue

Revenue of $39.3 billion was up 12% sequentially and up 78% year-on-year, exceeding the outlook of $37.5 billion.

Data Center Revenue Surge

Data center revenue for fiscal 2025 was $115.2 billion, more than doubling from the prior year. Fourth-quarter data center revenue was a record $35.6 billion, up 16% sequentially and 93% year-on-year.

Successful Blackwell Product Launch

Blackwell sales exceeded expectations with $11 billion in revenue and marked the fastest product ramp in the company's history.

Automotive Vertical Growth

Automotive revenue was a record $570 million, up 27% sequentially and up 103% year-on-year, driven by autonomous vehicles and partnerships with companies like Toyota and Aurora.

Professional Visualization Business Growth

Revenue of $511 million was up 5% sequentially and 10% year-on-year, with full-year revenue of $1.9 billion increasing 21% year-on-year.

Strong Outlook for Fiscal 2026

Total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be $43 billion, with continued strong demand for Blackwell.

Negative Updates

Gaming Revenue Decline

Gaming revenue of $2.5 billion decreased 22% sequentially and 11% year-on-year, impacted by supply constraints.

Networking Revenue Decline

Networking revenue declined 3% sequentially, despite robust attachment to GPU compute systems.

China Market Constraints

Data center sales in China remained well below previous levels due to export controls, with shipments expected to remain at current percentages.

Gross Margin Pressure

GAAP gross margins were 73%, and non-GAAP were 73.5%, down sequentially with expectations to remain in the low seventies during Blackwell ramp.

Company Guidance

During NVIDIA's fourth-quarter earnings call for fiscal 2025, Colette Kress provided guidance highlighting robust financial performance and future expectations. Q4 revenue reached a record $39.3 billion, up 12% sequentially and 78% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of $37.5 billion. The full-year revenue for fiscal 2025 was $130.5 billion, a 114% increase from the previous year. Data center revenue was a significant contributor, with fiscal 2025 revenue totaling $115.2 billion, more than doubling from the prior year. The Blackwell architecture played a crucial role in this growth, generating $11 billion in Q4 alone, marking the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA's history. Looking ahead, NVIDIA expects Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue to be approximately $43 billion, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins projected at 70.6% and 71%, respectively. The company anticipates continued strong demand for its Blackwell architecture, which is expected to drive sequential growth in both data center and gaming sectors.

Nvidia Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Nvidia Appoints Ellen Ochoa to Board of Directors

Neutral

Nov 7, 2024

NVIDIA Corporation has appointed Ellen Ochoa to its Board of Directors, increasing the board count to thirteen. Ochoa will join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, receiving initial and pro-rated equity grants as part of her compensation, along with a cash retainer. This move reflects NVIDIA’s commitment to strengthening its governance and leadership framework.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.