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Trulieve Cannabis (TSE:TRUL)
:TRUL

Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) AI Stock Analysis

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Trulieve Cannabis

(OTC:TRUL)

56Neutral
Trulieve Cannabis's overall stock score reflects a company with mixed financial performance and moderate technical momentum. The primary strengths are operational recovery and strategic expansions, but profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh down the score. Although the earnings call highlighted positive trends and strategic progress, the company must overcome profitability and valuation hurdles to achieve a stronger overall rating.
Positive Factors
Financial Guidance
Guidance for Q4 includes gross margins above prior forecast with low single digit sequential growth in revenues.
Financial Performance
Trulieve reported strong gross margins that led to EBITDA above expectations.
Financial Position
Sizable cash pile creates optionality: With $356 million of cash on hand, Trulieve has plenty of firepower to invest in growth catalysts across the board.
Investment Prospects
Given Trulieve’s healthy financial position, access to capital, and best-in-class profitability metrics, the stock is attractive for investors looking for cannabis exposure to a high-quality operator.
Negative Factors
Market Volatility
Volatility in the stock is likely due to the Amendment 3 vote occurring in Florida.

Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Trulieve Cannabis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrulieve Cannabis Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a medical cannabis company. It cultivates and produces products in-house and distributes its products to Trulieve branded stores (dispensaries) in Florida, as well as through home delivery. The company produces flower, edible, vaporizer cartridge, concentrate, topical, capsule, tincture, dissolvable powder, and nasal spray products under the Avenue, Cultivar Collection, Muse, Modern Flower, Alchemy, Momenta, Sweet Talk, Co2lors, Loveli, and Roll One brands. As of March 16, 2022, it operated 162 dispensaries, which included 113 dispensaries in Florida, 19 affiliated dispensaries in Pennsylvania, 17 dispensaries in Arizona, five dispensaries in California, three dispensaries in Maryland, two dispensaries in Massachusetts, two dispensaries in West Virginia, and one dispensary in Connecticut. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. also operated cultivation and processing facilities in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The company was formerly known as Schyan Exploration Inc./Exploration Schyan Inc. and changed its name to Trulieve Cannabis Corp. in September 2018. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. was incorporated in 1940 and is headquartered in Quincy, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrulieve Cannabis makes money through a vertically integrated business model that encompasses the entire supply chain from cultivation to retail. The primary revenue streams include the sale of cannabis products at its own retail dispensaries, as well as wholesale distribution to other licensed cannabis businesses. The company benefits from significant in-house production capabilities, reducing costs and ensuring product quality. Trulieve's earnings are bolstered by its extensive retail network, strategic acquisitions of other cannabis companies, and expansion into new markets as legislation permits. Additionally, partnerships with other industry players and a strong brand presence contribute to its revenue generation.

Trulieve Cannabis Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trulieve Cannabis shows signs of operational recovery with improving margins and cash flow. However, persistent net losses, declining equity, and a negative net profit margin present ongoing challenges. Moderate leverage and effective cost management are positive, but consistent profitability remains uncertain.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Trulieve Cannabis experienced a mixed performance in its income statement. The gross profit margin remained strong at approximately 60.3% in 2024, indicating effective cost management in production. However, the net profit margin is negative due to substantial net losses in recent years, which raises concerns about profitability. The revenue growth rate between 2023 and 2024 was approximately 5.1%, showcasing moderate growth but below industry expectations. EBIT and EBITDA margins showed improvement, with positive EBITDA in 2024, signaling operational recovery. Despite this, sustained net losses highlight ongoing financial challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet presents a mixed picture of stability and risk. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at approximately 0.65 in 2024, indicating moderate leverage but manageable debt levels compared to equity. Return on equity remains negative due to consecutive net losses, underscoring profitability challenges. The equity ratio of 44% reflects an average capital structure with potential room for improvement in equity utilization. While the company maintains a solid asset base, the decline in stockholders' equity raises concerns about financial resilience.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a mixed trajectory. Operating cash flow has increased significantly in 2024, indicating improved operational cash management. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative due to increased capital expenditures, which may limit cash availability for other investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting efficient cash conversion despite net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates ongoing challenges in generating cash relative to earnings. The overall cash flow position suggests improving operations but ongoing pressures on free cash generation.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.19B1.13B1.24B938.38M521.53M
Gross Profit
715.75M588.63M682.00M566.13M386.42M
EBIT
97.78M-221.61M109.40M196.95M218.37M
EBITDA
282.80M-21.98M239.75M283.59M207.87M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-155.10M-526.80M-205.10M18.03M63.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
299.20M201.37M212.30M230.65M146.71M
Total Assets
2.87B2.73B3.40B3.41B816.11M
Total Debt
824.46M792.57M1.03B859.02M168.60M
Net Debt
585.65M591.20M817.00M628.38M21.88M
Total Liabilities
1.62B1.32B1.47B1.26B368.21M
Stockholders Equity
1.26B1.41B1.93B2.15B447.90M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
116.82M146.35M-161.49M-293.22M-47.10M
Operating Cash Flow
271.48M201.84M23.10M12.90M99.64M
Investing Cash Flow
-206.62M-37.47M-215.06M-215.18M-174.65M
Financing Cash Flow
-33.44M-175.59M177.80M289.23M129.91M

Trulieve Cannabis Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.40
Price Trends
50DMA
5.65
Positive
100DMA
6.34
Positive
200DMA
9.96
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.24
Negative
RSI
60.64
Neutral
STOCH
71.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRUL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.30, above the 50-day MA of 5.65, and below the 200-day MA of 9.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TRUL.

Trulieve Cannabis Risk Analysis

Trulieve Cannabis disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trulieve Cannabis reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Trulieve Cannabis Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
56
Neutral
$1.22B-12.12%6.27%67.62%
52
Neutral
$5.28B3.75-42.72%2.86%17.70%2.03%
41
Neutral
C$213.77M-955.11%-29.40%-58.95%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRUL
Trulieve Cannabis
6.40
-10.59
-62.33%
TSE:TILT
TILT Holdings Inc
0.58
0.00
0.00%
CURLF
Curaleaf Holdings
0.98
-4.67
-82.65%
GTBIF
Green Thumb Industries
6.26
-6.94
-52.58%
CRLBF
Cresco Labs
0.91
-1.27
-58.26%
VRNOF
Verano Holdings
0.82
-4.33
-84.08%

Trulieve Cannabis Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 8.47%|
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Trulieve showcased strong financial performance with revenue, gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA improvements. Despite a net loss and increased SG&A expenses, the company's strategic initiatives and expansion efforts contributed positively. The setback in Florida's adult-use legalization was notable, but overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Full year 2024 revenue grew by 5% compared to 2023, with fourth quarter revenue increasing 6% sequentially and 5% year-over-year.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin improved to 62% in Q4 2024, driven by lower production costs, representing a significant improvement from 52% in 2023.
Adjusted EBITDA Increase
Adjusted EBITDA increased by $98 million to $420 million for full year 2024, a 30% increase from 2023, with a 37% margin in Q4 2024.
Customer Retention and Loyalty Program Success
Customer retention improved to 68% overall and 76% in medical-only markets, with loyalty program members spending 2.3 times more than non-members.
Successful Expansion and Retail Optimization
Trulieve added 33 new stores in 2024, ending the year with 225 locations, and plans to open 10 more in 2025 while refreshing or remodeling up to 45 dispensaries.
Negative Updates
Net Loss
Trulieve reported a net loss of $155 million for full year 2024, although this was an improvement from a loss of $527 million in 2023.
SG&A Expenses Increase
SG&A expenses increased to $510 million or 43% of revenue in 2024 compared to $386 million or 34% of revenue in 2023.
Challenges in Florida Market
Amendment 3 for adult-use legalization fell short of the required 60% approval, receiving support from approximately 56% of voters.
Company Guidance
During Trulieve Cannabis Corporation's fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results call, several key metrics were highlighted. Full year revenue grew by 5% from the previous year, reaching $1.2 billion, with fourth quarter revenue increasing by 6% sequentially to $301 million. The gross margin improved to 62% in the fourth quarter, driven by lower production costs, while the adjusted EBITDA increased by $15 million to $111 million, reflecting a 37% margin. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was a record $420 million, marking a 30% increase from 2023. Trulieve also reported a full year operating cash flow of $271 million, surpassing their $250 million target. The company ended the year with $300 million in cash and investments, and plans to focus on balance sheet improvement by retiring at least half of its private placement notes maturing in October 2026. Additionally, Trulieve expanded its retail network by adding 33 new stores in 2024, bringing the total to 225 locations, with plans to open 10 more stores in 2025.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.