Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) AI Stock Analysis

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Trulieve Cannabis

(OTC:TRUL)

Rating:61Neutral

Price Target:

C$7.50

▼(-0.53% Downside)

Trulieve Cannabis's overall score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call highlights. However, financial performance concerns, particularly profitability and valuation challenges, weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

EBITDA Performance

Adjusted EBITDA of $110.6M was above both the analyst's estimate and consensus.

Gross Margin

Trulieve reported an impressive gross margin of 60.6%, which was higher than expected.

Product Sales

Over 12.5M branded products were sold in the quarter, an increase of 9% year over year.

Negative Factors

Revenue Guidance

Guidance for Q3 is for revenues to decline mid-single digits due to typical seasonal impact.

Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

$1.41B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)185.12K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.59

Revenue Growth7.23%

EPS Growth64.93%

CountryCA

Employees6,000

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength37

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.10

Shares Outstanding167,851,060

10 Day Avg. Volume203,941

30 Day Avg. Volume185,116

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.30

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.13

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.67

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$23.32

Price Target Upside209.23% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Trulieve Cannabis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrulieve Cannabis Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a medical cannabis company. It cultivates and produces products in-house and distributes its products to Trulieve branded stores (dispensaries) in Florida, as well as through home delivery. The company produces flower, edible, vaporizer cartridge, concentrate, topical, capsule, tincture, dissolvable powder, and nasal spray products under the Avenue, Cultivar Collection, Muse, Modern Flower, Alchemy, Momenta, Sweet Talk, Co2lors, Loveli, and Roll One brands. As of March 16, 2022, it operated 162 dispensaries, which included 113 dispensaries in Florida, 19 affiliated dispensaries in Pennsylvania, 17 dispensaries in Arizona, five dispensaries in California, three dispensaries in Maryland, two dispensaries in Massachusetts, two dispensaries in West Virginia, and one dispensary in Connecticut. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. also operated cultivation and processing facilities in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The company was formerly known as Schyan Exploration Inc./Exploration Schyan Inc. and changed its name to Trulieve Cannabis Corp. in September 2018. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. was incorporated in 1940 and is headquartered in Quincy, Florida.

How the Company Makes MoneyTrulieve makes money through its vertically integrated operations that span the entire cannabis supply chain. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of cannabis products through its extensive network of retail dispensaries, direct-to-consumer sales, and wholesale distribution to other cannabis businesses. Trulieve benefits from owning and operating its own cultivation and production facilities, allowing for control over product quality and cost efficiencies. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its market reach and product offerings, which contribute to its revenue growth. Additionally, Trulieve's focus on brand development and customer loyalty programs helps drive repeat business, further bolstering its financial performance.

Trulieve Cannabis Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 3.29%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Trulieve reported a strong second quarter with improvements in gross margin and EBITDA, significant cash reserves, and successful branded product growth. However, challenges such as pricing compression, projected revenue decline, and a reported net loss due to tax expenses remain. The company continues to focus on federal reform and market expansion.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Second quarter revenue was $302 million, with a gross margin of 61%, a 1% improvement from last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $111 million, reflecting a 37% margin, up by 2% compared to last year.

Cash Flow and Debt Management

Operating cash flow of $86 million contributed to cash reserves of $401 million at the quarter's end. The company plans to retire half of its $368 million senior secured notes later this year.

Growth in Wholesale and Retail

Wholesale revenue grew 27% year-over-year. Retail traffic and units sold increased by 8% and 9% respectively, with significant market share growth in Arizona and Florida.

Branded Product Success

Modern Flower was the #1 or #2 flower brand in Pennsylvania throughout the first half of the year. The company sold over 12.5 million branded product units in the second quarter.

Federal Reform Advocacy

Trulieve is actively engaged in pushing for federal cannabis reform, including rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III and supporting SAFER Banking legislation.

Innovative Product Launches

The company launched Redemption Cannabis and expanded its Onward THC beverage line, with the latter seeing a 300% increase in cases sold.

Negative Updates

Pricing Compression and Wallet Pressure

Despite increased retail traffic, pricing compression and consumer wallet pressure continue to affect overall revenue growth.

Projected Revenue Decline

Third quarter revenue is expected to decline mid-single digits sequentially due to historical seasonal patterns.

Net Loss Reported

The second quarter net loss was $14 million, compared to a loss of $12 million last year, primarily due to income tax expenses, including punitive 280E tax.

Company Guidance

During Trulieve Cannabis Corporation's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance indicating a robust financial performance with revenue reaching $302 million, reflecting a 1% sequential increase. The gross margin improved by 1% year-over-year, standing at an industry-leading 61%. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $111 million, a 37% margin, indicating a 2% increase from the previous year. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $86 million, contributing to a cash reserve of $401 million at the quarter's end. Retail traffic and units sold saw an 8% and 9% increase, respectively, though these were offset by pricing compression. Wholesale revenue also grew by 27% compared to the previous year. For the full year, Trulieve anticipates maintaining a gross margin comparable to 2024, with expected cash flow from operations of at least $250 million and capital expenditures up to $40 million. The company remains optimistic about the prospects of federal cannabis reform, which could further influence financial performance.

Trulieve Cannabis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Trulieve Cannabis shows promising revenue growth and a solid gross profit margin. However, persistent profitability challenges and fluctuating cash flows pose significant risks. The balance sheet is stable, but declining equity raises concerns about long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Neutral

Trulieve Cannabis has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase from 2020 to 2025. However, the company has faced challenges in maintaining profitability, evident from the negative net income figures in recent periods. The gross profit margin remains healthy at around 61.1% TTM, indicating efficient production and sales processes. Despite a positive EBIT margin, the net profit margin is negative, highlighting issues in controlling overall expenses or other non-operational costs.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.67 TTM, which is reasonable for the industry. The equity ratio of 42.7% TTM suggests a balanced capital structure. However, there is a declining trend in stockholders' equity over the years, which may signal potential risks in asset management or retained earnings.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Trulieve's cash flow statements reveal a volatile free cash flow, with recent periods showing limited growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting operational cash efficiency, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating challenges in generating free cash flow from earnings. This inconsistency in cash flow growth may affect future liquidity and investment capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.19B	1.19B	1.13B	1.24B	938.38M	521.53M
Gross Profit	725.16M	715.75M	588.63M	682.00M	566.13M	386.42M
EBITDA	272.16M	282.80M	-21.98M	239.75M	283.59M	207.87M
Net Income	-164.90M	-155.10M	-526.80M	-205.10M	18.03M	63.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.89B	2.87B	2.73B	3.40B	3.41B	816.11M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	328.45M	299.20M	201.37M	212.30M	230.65M	146.71M
Total Debt	823.78M	824.46M	792.57M	1.03B	859.02M	168.60M
Total Liabilities	1.67B	1.62B	1.32B	1.47B	1.26B	368.21M
Stockholders Equity	1.23B	1.26B	1.41B	1.93B	2.15B	447.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	28.49M	116.82M	146.35M	-161.49M	-293.22M	-47.10M
Operating Cash Flow	183.07M	271.48M	201.84M	23.10M	12.90M	99.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-144.24M	-206.62M	-37.47M	-215.06M	-215.18M	-174.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-36.38M	-33.44M	-175.59M	177.80M	289.23M	129.91M

Trulieve Cannabis Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price7.54

Price Trends

50DMA

5.66

Positive

100DMA

5.66

Positive

200DMA

7.03

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.43

Negative

RSI

69.09

Neutral

STOCH

89.93

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRUL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.33, above the 50-day MA of 5.66, and above the 200-day MA of 7.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TRUL.

Trulieve Cannabis Risk Analysis

Trulieve Cannabis disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trulieve Cannabis reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Trulieve Cannabis Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	64 Neutral	€5.97B	18.68	-1.87%	2.14%	0.91%	-39.98%
TRUL	61 Neutral	$1.41B	―	-12.60%	―	7.23%	64.93%
CRON	―	$793.87M	16.44	4.61%	―	―	―
CURLF	―	$1.28B	―	-24.93%	―	―	―
GTBIF	―	$1.69B	32.64	1.63%	―	―	―
CRLBF	―	$314.97M	―	-17.34%	―	―	―
DHT.UN	72 Outperform	C$793.55M	391.80	0.27%	4.92%	5.65%	-98.77%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:TRUL

Trulieve Cannabis

7.54

-6.57

-46.56%

CRON

Cronos Group

2.27

-0.05

-2.16%

CURLF

Curaleaf Holdings

1.79

-1.59

-47.04%

GTBIF

Green Thumb Industries

6.98

-4.78

-40.65%

CRLBF

Cresco Labs

0.68

-0.94

-58.02%

TSE:DHT.UN

DRI Healthcare

14.64

2.85

24.17%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2025