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Trulieve Cannabis (TSE:TRUL)
:TRUL
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Trulieve Cannabis
(TRUL)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
C$9.00
▲(7.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/01/26
The score is primarily supported by strong recent cash flow and improving operating profitability, reinforced by earnings-call focus on sustained cash generation and stable gross margins. It is held back by sharp TTM revenue decline, ongoing net losses, and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, sizable operating and free cash flows give Trulieve durable financial flexibility: they fund capex, store openings and refreshes, support debt paydowns and reduce reliance on dilutive financing. Strong cash conversion cushions the business through top-line volatility and enables strategic investments that sustain long-term growth.
High gross margins and operating profitability
Sustained ~60% gross margins and record adjusted EBITDA indicate structural cost advantages from vertical integration and scale. High margins provide resilience against pricing pressure, enable reinvestment in branding/loyalty, and improve the odds of converting operating gains into consistent net profitability as revenue stabilizes.
Scale in retail and production footprint
A large retail network and multi-million sqft production base create lasting competitive advantages: better supply security, lower per-unit production costs, and broader distribution for new SKUs. Scale supports national expansion, wholesale growth and loyalty economics that improve margins over time.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue contraction
A near‑term but persistent top‑line decline of this magnitude signals demand, pricing or mix challenges that impair leverage on fixed costs. Revenue recovery is essential to sustain margin improvements and cash generation; prolonged contraction would erode operating leverage and strain long‑term profitability.
Net losses persist
Despite strong operating cash flow, recurring net losses and a negative net margin reflect tax, interest and non‑operational items that still impair retained earnings. Persistent bottom‑line deficits limit reinvestment capacity and increase pressure to convert operating strength into sustained GAAP profitability.
Regulatory and market uncertainty
Unresolved ballot outcomes and pending licensure create structural uncertainty about addressable markets and timing of expansion. Regulatory delays constrain rollout of stores and investments, can alter tax/tariff dynamics and materially affect long‑term revenue prospects and strategic decisions tied to state approvals.
Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.61B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)124.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.84
Revenue Growth4.27%
EPS Growth3.41%
CountryCA
Employees6,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.30
Shares Outstanding167,931,950
10 Day Avg. Volume133,563
30 Day Avg. Volume124,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)1.37
P/FCF Ratio7.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$20.50Price Target Upside144.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.17B
Trulieve Cannabis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTrulieve Cannabis Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a medical cannabis company. It cultivates and produces products in-house and distributes its products to Trulieve branded stores (dispensaries) in Florida, as well as through home delivery. The company produces flower, edible, vaporizer cartridge, concentrate, topical, capsule, tincture, dissolvable powder, and nasal spray products under the Avenue, Cultivar Collection, Muse, Modern Flower, Alchemy, Momenta, Sweet Talk, Co2lors, Loveli, and Roll One brands. As of March 16, 2022, it operated 162 dispensaries, which included 113 dispensaries in Florida, 19 affiliated dispensaries in Pennsylvania, 17 dispensaries in Arizona, five dispensaries in California, three dispensaries in Maryland, two dispensaries in Massachusetts, two dispensaries in West Virginia, and one dispensary in Connecticut. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. also operated cultivation and processing facilities in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The company was formerly known as Schyan Exploration Inc./Exploration Schyan Inc. and changed its name to Trulieve Cannabis Corp. in September 2018. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. was incorporated in 1940 and is headquartered in Quincy, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrulieve generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis products in its dispensaries and online platforms. The company operates a retail network of dispensaries that cater to both medical and recreational cannabis consumers. Key revenue streams include sales of flower, concentrates, edibles, and wellness products. In addition to retail sales, Trulieve benefits from its cultivation and production facilities, which enable the company to maintain control over its supply chain and product quality. Strategic partnerships with local suppliers and involvement in community initiatives also enhance its market position and brand loyalty. The company's growth is further supported by expanding its footprint into new markets and increasing its product offerings to capture a wider customer base.
Trulieve Cannabis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial accomplishments — record adjusted EBITDA, industry-leading gross margins (60%), robust operating cash flow ($273M), significant wholesale growth (+23%), branded product momentum (50M units sold) and meaningful customer engagement and loyalty gains. These positives were balanced against near-term headwinds: retail pricing compression, softer consumer behavior that produced a Q4 revenue decline (-3% YoY) and a full-year net loss ($160M), plus tax and regulatory uncertainties (Florida ballot, pending Texas license, 280E UTP). Management emphasized cash generation, balance sheet actions and strategic investments (Project Hyper, store refreshes, Texas build-out) to sustain momentum. Overall, the highlights — strong margins, cash flow, debt reduction, and scale — substantially outweigh the lowlights tied mainly to near-term top-line pressure and regulatory timing risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Units Sold
Full year revenue of $1.2 billion (comparable to 2024) with traffic and units sold up 5% each; record units sold for the year.
Strong Gross Margins
Full year and fourth quarter gross margin of 60%, driven by operational efficiencies, lower production costs and disciplined promotional activity.
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margins
Record adjusted EBITDA of $427 million, up ~1% year-over-year, representing a ~36% adjusted EBITDA margin for the year.
Robust Cash Generation and Balance Sheet Actions
Full year operating cash flow of $273 million (exceeding $250M target); ended year with $256 million in cash after retiring over $368 million of senior notes and completing $140M private placement (plus $60M raised post-year).
Wholesale Revenue Growth
Wholesale revenue grew 23% in 2025, driven by strength in Maryland and Pennsylvania and ramp in Ohio via production partner sales of branded products.
Branded Product and SKU Momentum
Sold over 50 million branded product units in 2025; launched 175+ new SKUs including Roll One Clutch (sold over 200,000 units in Florida in Q4) with positive initial sell-through in new markets.
Customer Engagement & Loyalty
Rewards program reached 915,000 members (Q4 growth +12%); rewards members spend ~2.5x more and comprised 78% of Q4 transactions; mobile app launched in Florida with 115,000+ downloads and 3.5 million user sessions in first 90 days.
Scale of Retail and Production Footprint
Exiting 2025 with 233 retail locations and over 4 million square feet of production capacity; plans to add at least 5 new retail locations, complete 5 relocations and refresh ~45 stores in 2026.
Negative Updates
Retail Revenue Pressure and YoY Q4 Decline
Fourth quarter revenue of $293 million declined 3% year-over-year (up 2% sequentially); ongoing pricing compression and softer consumer wallet trends pressured retail revenue.
Net Losses Persist
Full year net loss of $160 million (versus $155M in 2024); fourth quarter net loss of $43 million ($0.22 per share), though Q4 adjusted EPS excluding nonrecurring items would be $0.02.
Quarterly SG&A Pressure
Fourth quarter SG&A was $126 million or 43% of revenue (despite full-year SG&A improving to 38% of revenue from 43% in 2024), indicating near-term expense leverage volatility.
Guidance Signals Near-Term Softness
Company expects Q1 2026 revenue to decline sequentially by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage (seasonality and consumer trends); gross margin may fluctuate quarter-to-quarter.
Tax Uncertainty (280E / UTP)
Company continues to accrue an uncertain tax position (UTP) tied to Section 280E; while $114M+ in refunds received to date, final resolution remains uncertain and dependent on tax/regulatory developments.
Regulatory & Market Uncertainties
Florida adult-use ballot inclusion remains unresolved after validation shortfall (1.7M signatures submitted; >90k signatures invalidated contested); Texas final license remains pending (provisional license received, diligence ongoing).
Dependence on Promotional and Mix Management
Management highlighted reliance on refined product mix, promotions and segmentation (Project Hyper investment) to offset pricing compression—indicating exposure if those initiatives underperform or take longer to deliver ROI.
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 calls for first‑quarter revenue to decline sequentially by a low‑ to mid‑single‑digit percentage (seasonal), quarterly gross margin to fluctuate but remain broadly in line with recent ~60% performance, and full‑year targets of at least $250 million in operating cash flow and up to $85 million in capital expenditures (CapEx); the company plans to open at least 5 new stores, complete 5 relocations and refresh at least 45 stores, may accelerate investments in Texas pending regulatory approvals, and cautions that consumer trends, product/market mix, inventory sell‑through, promotions and idle capacity costs will influence results and that the outlook may be updated as regulatory and market catalysts evolve.Trulieve Cannabis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operating profitability and cash generation are improving, with strong TTM operating cash flow (~$274M) and free cash flow (~$226M). Offsetting this, the company remains net-loss making (TTM net margin ~-11.2%) and TTM revenue contracted sharply (~-29%), keeping fundamentals mixed despite manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.68).Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability improved materially at the operating level (EBIT margin ~11.7% vs. ~8.8% in 2024 and negative in 2023), with solid gross margins holding around ~61%. However, the company remains net-loss making (TTM net margin ~-11.2%), and the top line contracted sharply in TTM (revenue growth ~-29%), which is a key near-term concern despite margin recovery.44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity around ~0.68 in TTM (broadly in line with 2024), and equity remains sizable relative to the asset base. That said, returns on equity are still negative (TTM ROE ~-10.8%), and equity has trended down versus prior years, indicating the business has not yet consistently converted its asset base into bottom-line profitability.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM operating cash flow is strong (~$274M) and free cash flow is meaningfully positive (~$226M), with free cash flow up sharply versus 2024 (growth ~51%). Cash flow also compares favorably to accounting earnings (net loss), indicating good cash conversion and improving self-funding capacity, though results have been volatile historically (negative free cash flow in 2021–2022).78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.19B | 1.13B | 1.24B | 938.38M |
| Gross Profit | 603.92M | 715.75M | 588.63M | 682.00M | 566.13M |
| EBITDA | 338.01M | 282.80M | -21.98M | 239.75M | 283.59M |
| Net Income | -118.42M | -155.10M | -526.80M | -205.10M | 18.03M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.87B | 2.73B | 3.40B | 3.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 255.07M | 299.20M | 201.37M | 212.30M | 230.65M |
| Total Debt | 670.28M | 824.46M | 792.57M | 1.03B | 859.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.61B | 1.62B | 1.32B | 1.47B | 1.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.16B | 1.26B | 1.41B | 1.93B | 2.15B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 232.63M | 116.82M | 146.35M | -161.49M | -293.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 277.60M | 271.48M | 201.84M | 23.10M | 12.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 13.74M | -206.62M | -37.47M | -215.06M | -215.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -275.23M | -33.44M | -175.59M | 177.80M | 289.23M |
Trulieve Cannabis Technical Analysis
Negative
8.40
Price Trends
10.48
Negative
10.02
Negative
8.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.51
Negative
39.26
Neutral
32.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRUL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.97, below the 50-day MA of 10.48, and below the 200-day MA of 8.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TRUL.
Trulieve Cannabis Risk Analysis
Trulieve Cannabis disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trulieve Cannabis reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trulieve Cannabis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | C$2.03B | 12.92 | 6.18% | ― | 6.18% | -28.69% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.61B | -9.86 | -9.14% | ― | 4.27% | 3.41% | |
52 Neutral | C$565.05M | -6.15 | -11.79% | ― | -6.48% | 22.63% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | C$2.41B | -7.01 | -27.48% | ― | -3.38% | -31.35% | |
49 Neutral | C$2.17B | -4.68 | -33.01% | ― | -4.58% | -141.91% | |
47 Neutral | C$123.92M | -1.34 | ― | ― | 3.17% | -24.07% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.