Trulieve Cannabis (OTC) (TSE:TRUL)
OTHER OTC:TRUL
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Trulieve Cannabis
(OTC:TRUL)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.50
▼(-8.87% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/01/26
The score is primarily supported by strong recent cash flow and improving operating profitability, reinforced by earnings-call focus on sustained cash generation and stable gross margins. It is held back by sharp TTM revenue decline, ongoing net losses, and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently strong operating and free cash flow improves self-funding capacity, cushioning the business against revenue volatility. Durable cash generation supports debt paydown, capex for store refreshes and Project Hyper, and strategic investments without reliance on dilutive capital.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue contraction
A near-term structural decline in top line reduces operating leverage and increases break-even risk. Sustained revenue contraction limits the ability to fully realize scale benefits, pressures discretionary investment pacing, and makes future margin and cash outcomes more sensitive to demand recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently strong operating and free cash flow improves self-funding capacity, cushioning the business against revenue volatility. Durable cash generation supports debt paydown, capex for store refreshes and Project Hyper, and strategic investments without reliance on dilutive capital.
Read all positive factors
Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.78B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)92.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.67
Revenue Growth4.27%
EPS Growth3.41%
CountryCA
Employees6,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.30
Shares Outstanding169,080,760
10 Day Avg. Volume96,427
30 Day Avg. Volume92,106
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)1.37
P/FCF Ratio7.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$17.00Price Target Upside106.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.17B
Trulieve Cannabis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trulieve Cannabis Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a medical cannabis company. It cultivates and produces products in-house and distributes its products to Trulieve branded stores (dispensaries) in Florida, as well as through hom...
How the Company Makes Money
Trulieve makes money primarily by selling cannabis products directly to consumers through its own dispensaries (vertical retail model). Revenue is generated from: (1) Retail cannabis sales: the largest and most direct stream, where Trulieve sells ...
Trulieve Cannabis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial accomplishments — record adjusted EBITDA, industry-leading gross margins (60%), robust operating cash flow ($273M), significant wholesale growth (+23%), branded product momentum (50M units sold) and meaningful customer engagement and loyalty gains. These positives were balanced against near-term headwinds: retail pricing compression, softer consumer behavior that produced a Q4 revenue decline (-3% YoY) and a full-year net loss ($160M), plus tax and regulatory uncertainties (Florida ballot, pending Texas license, 280E UTP). Management emphasized cash generation, balance sheet actions and strategic investments (Project Hyper, store refreshes, Texas build-out) to sustain momentum. Overall, the highlights — strong margins, cash flow, debt reduction, and scale — substantially outweigh the lowlights tied mainly to near-term top-line pressure and regulatory timing risks.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Units Sold
Full year revenue of $1.2 billion (comparable to 2024) with traffic and units sold up 5% each; record units sold for the year.
Negative Updates
Retail Revenue Pressure and YoY Q4 Decline
Fourth quarter revenue of $293 million declined 3% year-over-year (up 2% sequentially); ongoing pricing compression and softer consumer wallet trends pressured retail revenue.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue and Units Sold
Full year revenue of $1.2 billion (comparable to 2024) with traffic and units sold up 5% each; record units sold for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 calls for first‑quarter revenue to decline sequentially by a low‑ to mid‑single‑digit percentage (seasonal), quarterly gross margin to fluctuate but remain broadly in line with recent ~60% performance, and full‑year targets of at least $250 million in operating cash flow and up to $85 million in capital expenditures (CapEx); the company plans to open at least 5 new stores, complete 5 relocations and refresh at least 45 stores, may accelerate investments in Texas pending regulatory approvals, and cautions that consumer trends, product/market mix, inventory sell‑through, promotions and idle capacity costs will influence results and that the outlook may be updated as regulatory and market catalysts evolve.Trulieve Cannabis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.19B | 1.13B | 1.24B | 938.38M |
| Gross Profit | 603.92M | 715.75M | 588.63M | 682.00M | 566.13M |
| EBITDA | 338.01M | 282.80M | -21.98M | 239.75M | 283.59M |
| Net Income | -118.42M | -155.10M | -526.80M | -205.10M | 18.03M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.87B | 2.73B | 3.40B | 3.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 255.07M | 299.20M | 201.37M | 212.30M | 230.65M |
| Total Debt | 670.28M | 824.46M | 792.57M | 1.03B | 859.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.61B | 1.62B | 1.32B | 1.47B | 1.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.16B | 1.26B | 1.41B | 1.93B | 2.15B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 232.63M | 116.82M | 146.35M | -161.49M | -293.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 277.60M | 271.48M | 201.84M | 23.10M | 12.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 13.74M | -206.62M | -37.47M | -215.06M | -215.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -275.23M | -33.44M | -175.59M | 177.80M | 289.23M |
Trulieve Cannabis Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.23
Price Trends
8.60
Positive
9.58
Negative
9.42
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
51.09
Neutral
70.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRUL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.41, below the 50-day MA of 8.60, and below the 200-day MA of 9.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TRUL.
Trulieve Cannabis Risk Analysis
Trulieve Cannabis disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trulieve Cannabis reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trulieve Cannabis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | C$2.20B | 16.23 | 6.29% | ― | 6.18% | -28.69% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.78B | -13.95 | -9.71% | ― | 4.27% | 3.41% | |
56 Neutral | C$2.79B | -8.05 | -28.58% | ― | -3.38% | -31.35% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | C$153.77M | -2.48 | 75.97% | ― | 3.17% | -24.07% | |
48 Neutral | C$2.17B | -1.75 | -30.10% | ― | -4.58% | -141.91% | |
45 Neutral | C$596.74M | -3.01 | -33.00% | ― | -6.48% | 22.63% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.