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Trulieve Cannabis (TSE:TRUL)
:TRUL
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Trulieve Cannabis
(OTC:TRUL)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(11.11%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Guidance
Guidance for Q4 includes gross margins above prior forecast with low single digit sequential growth in revenues.
Financial Performance
Trulieve reported strong gross margins that led to EBITDA above expectations.
Financial Position
Sizable cash pile creates optionality: With $356 million of cash on hand, Trulieve has plenty of firepower to invest in growth catalysts across the board.
Investment Prospects
Given Trulieve’s healthy financial position, access to capital, and best-in-class profitability metrics, the stock is attractive for investors looking for cannabis exposure to a high-quality operator.
Negative Factors
Market Volatility
Volatility in the stock is likely due to the Amendment 3 vote occurring in Florida.
Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$1.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)120.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.12
Revenue Growth7.23%
EPS Growth64.93%
CountryCA
Employees6,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength41
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.24
Shares Outstanding167,851,060
10 Day Avg. Volume58,678
30 Day Avg. Volume120,532
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio30.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.85Price Target Upside304.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Trulieve Cannabis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTrulieve Cannabis Corp. (TRUL) is a leading, vertically integrated cannabis company based in the United States. It operates in the healthcare and consumer goods sectors, focusing primarily on the cultivation, production, and sale of medical and recreational cannabis products. Trulieve offers a comprehensive range of cannabis products, including flowers, edibles, concentrates, and topicals, catering to a diverse clientele across multiple states where cannabis is legally permitted.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrulieve Cannabis makes money through a vertically integrated business model that encompasses the entire supply chain from cultivation to retail. The primary revenue streams include the sale of cannabis products at its own retail dispensaries, as well as wholesale distribution to other licensed cannabis businesses. The company benefits from significant in-house production capabilities, reducing costs and ensuring product quality. Trulieve's earnings are bolstered by its extensive retail network, strategic acquisitions of other cannabis companies, and expansion into new markets as legislation permits. Additionally, partnerships with other industry players and a strong brand presence contribute to its revenue generation.
Trulieve Cannabis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -11.91%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strong operational performance with increased revenue and improved margins, alongside significant growth in loyalty program and wholesale segments. However, challenges such as a slight decline in retail revenue and increased SG&A expenses contributed to a net loss for the quarter.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Revenue
First quarter revenue of $298 million, slightly increased compared to an atypically strong first quarter last year.
Improved Gross Margin
Gross margin improved to 62% versus 58% last year, driven by lower production costs and disciplined promotional activity.
Increase in Wholesale Revenue
Momentum in wholesale business with revenue up 25% versus last year, driven by demand for Trulieve branded products and expanded relationships in Maryland and Pennsylvania.
Loyalty Program Growth
Loyalty program reached over 625,000 members, growing by almost 20% in the first quarter, with loyalty program members spending 2.3x more per month than non-loyalty members.
Retail Traffic and Unit Sales Increase
Retail traffic and units sold both increased 7% year over year.
Product Expansion and Innovation
Launch of new branded products including THC beverages like 'Onward' and upcoming 'Upward' energy drink.
Positive Cash Flow
Operating cash flow of $51 million contributed to cash approximately $330 million at quarter end.
Positive Customer Metrics
Net Promoter Score increased by four points compared to last year, with every market scoring within the target range.
Negative Updates
Slight Decline in Retail Revenue
Despite increased retail traffic and units sold, pricing compression and loyalty point redemptions pressured retail revenue to decline slightly by 1%.
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses were $119 million or 40% of revenue, compared to $101 million or 34% last year, due to new store opening expenses, technology and infrastructure investments, and campaign support.
Net Loss for the Quarter
First quarter net loss was $33 million, compared to a loss of $23 million last year.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Trulieve Cannabis Corporation reported revenue of $298 million, marking a slight increase compared to the previous year. The company achieved a gross margin of 62%, up from 58% last year, due to lower production costs and disciplined promotional activities. Adjusted EBITDA reached $109 million, representing a 37% margin, which is a 1% improvement year-over-year. Operating cash flow totaled $51 million, contributing to a cash position of approximately $330 million at quarter-end. Retail traffic and units sold both increased by 7% year-over-year, although retail revenue declined slightly by 1% due to pricing compression and loyalty point redemptions. Wholesale revenue rose 25%, driven by demand for Trulieve-branded products and expanded partnerships in Maryland and Pennsylvania. The loyalty program grew by nearly 20% in the first quarter, reaching over 625,000 members, with loyalty members spending 2.3 times more per month than non-members. Trulieve opened six new dispensaries and relocated one in Pennsylvania, bringing the total to 229 dispensaries across eight states. The company remains focused on four key areas for growth: customers, distribution, branded products, and regulatory reform, with an emphasis on pushing for cannabis reform at the federal level.Trulieve Cannabis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Trulieve Cannabis shows promising revenue growth and a healthy gross profit margin. However, profitability challenges and fluctuating cash flows present significant risks. A stable debt position is positive, but declining equity raises concerns about long-term financial health. Improvements in net income and cash flow stability are needed for enhanced financial stability.Income Statement
Trulieve Cannabis has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase from 2020 to 2025. However, the company has faced challenges in maintaining profitability, evident from the negative net income figures in recent periods. The gross profit margin remains healthy at around 61.1% TTM, indicating efficient production and sales processes. Despite a positive EBIT margin, the net profit margin is negative, highlighting issues in controlling overall expenses or other non-operational costs.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.67 TTM, which is reasonable for the industry. The equity ratio of 42.7% TTM suggests a balanced capital structure. However, there is a declining trend in stockholders' equity over the years, which may signal potential risks in asset management or retained earnings.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Trulieve's cash flow statements reveal a volatile free cash flow, with recent periods showing limited growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting operational cash efficiency, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating challenges in generating free cash flow from earnings. This inconsistency in cash flow growth may affect future liquidity and investment capabilities.54
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.19B | 1.19B | 1.13B | 1.24B | 938.38M | 521.53M | Gross Profit |
| 725.16M | 715.75M | 588.63M | 682.00M | 566.13M | 386.42M | EBIT |
| 85.01M | 97.78M | -221.61M | 109.40M | 196.95M | 218.37M | EBITDA |
| 272.16M | 282.80M | -21.98M | 239.75M | 283.59M | 207.87M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -164.90M | -155.10M | -526.80M | -205.10M | 18.03M | 63.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 328.45M | 299.20M | 201.37M | 212.30M | 230.65M | 146.71M | Total Assets |
| 2.89B | 2.87B | 2.73B | 3.40B | 3.41B | 816.11M | Total Debt |
| 823.78M | 824.46M | 792.57M | 1.03B | 859.02M | 168.60M | Net Debt |
| 495.33M | 585.65M | 591.20M | 817.00M | 628.38M | 21.88M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.67B | 1.62B | 1.32B | 1.47B | 1.26B | 368.21M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.23B | 1.26B | 1.41B | 1.93B | 2.15B | 447.90M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 28.49M | 116.82M | 146.35M | -161.49M | -293.22M | -47.10M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 183.07M | 271.48M | 201.84M | 23.10M | 12.90M | 99.64M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -144.24M | -206.62M | -37.47M | -215.06M | -215.18M | -174.65M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -36.38M | -33.44M | -175.59M | 177.80M | 289.23M | 129.91M |
Trulieve Cannabis Technical Analysis
Negative
5.40
Price Trends
5.62
Negative
6.03
Negative
9.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
39.50
Neutral
20.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRUL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.87, below the 50-day MA of 5.62, and below the 200-day MA of 9.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TRUL.
Trulieve Cannabis Risk Analysis
Trulieve Cannabis disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trulieve Cannabis reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trulieve Cannabis Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | C$1.02B | 14.57 | 4.61% | ― | 38.16% | ― | |
64 Neutral | C$738.24M | 358.20 | 0.27% | 3.79% | 14.11% | -102.18% | |
63 Neutral | C$1.69B | 23.99 | 2.83% | ― | 8.77% | -10.79% | |
55 Neutral | $1.04B | ― | -12.39% | ― | 7.23% | 64.93% | |
54 Neutral | $908.75M | ― | -25.08% | ― | -0.11% | 11.22% | |
54 Neutral | $5.28B | 3.29 | -45.38% | 2.80% | 16.77% | -0.08% | |
51 Neutral | $312.30M | ― | -17.34% | ― | -4.38% | 46.68% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:TRUL
Trulieve Cannabis
5.40
-7.20
-57.14%
TSE:CRON
Cronos Group
2.61
-0.77
-22.78%
TSE:GTII
Green Thumb Industries
7.00
-9.79
-58.31%
TSE:CURA
Curaleaf Holdings
1.18
-5.00
-80.91%
TSE:CL
Cresco Labs
0.72
-1.68
-70.00%
TSE:DHT.UN
DRI Healthcare
12.99
-1.53
-10.54%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.