Green Thumb Industries (GTII) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.67B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 254.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 61.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.36
• Revenue Growth: 7.06%
• EPS Growth: -54.16%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 4,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 50
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 207,177,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 380,167
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 254,716
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.61
• 1Y Price Target: $17.34
• Price Target Upside: 67.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$13.00 ▲(25.36% Upside)

Green Thumb Industries' overall stock score reflects strong technical performance and stable financial health. However, high valuation and mixed earnings call sentiment, with challenges in profitability and regulatory uncertainties, moderate the score. The company's strong market presence and strategic investments are positive, but price compression and increased expenses pose risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Resilience

The company generated $74M in operating cash flow, reinforcing its reputation for capital discipline and financial resilience despite persistent pricing pressure, rising retail competition, and increasing macro and regulatory uncertainty.

Regulatory Developments

Recent reports indicate President Trump is considering reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, a move that would ease federal restrictions and improve industry profitability.

Revenue Growth

Green Thumb delivered Q2 2025 revenue of $293.3M, up 4.7% YoY and ahead of the $281M consensus estimate, driven by strength in the Consumer Packaged Goods segment.

Negative Factors

Margin Pressure

Management warned that AEBITDA margins are expected to fall below 30%, compared to Q1’s 31% and consensus expectations of $88M in AEBITDA, reflecting continued pricing pressure, a highly competitive retail environment, and cautious consumer spending.

Price Compression

Price compression remains industry-wide, affecting both retail and wholesale, but management emphasized maintaining brand strength and consumer loyalty through experiential marketing and product innovation.

Retail Competition

Comparable sales fell 5% YoY on a 90-store base, with retail revenue down 3% as competition and price compression accelerated in core markets like Illinois and New Jersey.

Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Thumb Industries Inc. engages in manufacture, distribution, and sale of various cannabis products for medical and adult-use in the United States. It offers cannabis flower; and processed and packaged products, including pre-rolls, concentrates, vapes, tinctures, edibles, topicals, and other cannabis-related products under the Beboe, Dogwalkers, Doctor Solomon's, Good Green, incredibles, and RHYTHM brands. The company distributes its products primarily to third-party retail stores, as well as sells finished products directly to consumers in its own retail stores. As of April 11, 2022, it owned and operated 77 retail stores in the United States. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Thumb Industries generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the sale of cannabis products in its retail dispensaries and through wholesale distribution to other retailers. The company's retail segment, which includes its own branded dispensaries, contributes significantly to its revenue by offering a diverse range of cannabis products, including flower, concentrates, edibles, and topicals. Additionally, GTII engages in partnerships with various brands to expand its product offerings and reach a broader audience. The company also benefits from regulatory frameworks in various states that allow for cannabis sales, contributing to its earnings growth. Their focus on innovation and product development, alongside efficient supply chain management, enhances profitability and helps to secure their position in the competitive cannabis market.

Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Thumb Industries shows strong revenue growth and stable financial health, with effective operating performance. However, challenges remain in enhancing profitability margins and ensuring consistent free cash flow growth. The balance sheet is strong with a solid equity base and moderate leverage, providing a foundation for potential future growth.

Income Statement

Green Thumb Industries has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from $556 million in 2020 to $1.14 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin remains robust, consistently above 50%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has been relatively low, with TTM figures showing a net profit margin of 4.41%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting effective operating performance, but the slight decline in EBIT margin from prior periods needs monitoring.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Green Thumb Industries shows a strong equity base with an equity ratio of approximately 70% in TTM, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.29, suggesting reasonable leverage levels. ROE has improved over the years, supported by increasing net income, but remains modest, indicating potential for higher returns on shareholder equity. The company's cash position has improved, with increased cash and short-term investments since 2020.

Cash Flow

Green Thumb Industries has shown a positive trend in operating cash flow, with TTM operating cash flow at $185 million. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, with a decrease in TTM compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests good cash generation relative to profits. The company must address fluctuations in free cash flow to enhance liquidity and support strategic investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.15B	1.14B	1.05B	1.02B	893.56M	556.57M
Gross Profit	595.19M	601.11M	526.50M	503.96M	491.93M	304.17M
EBITDA	338.34M	392.00M	324.14M	270.28M	329.53M	200.39M
Net Income	28.96M	73.08M	36.27M	11.98M	75.44M	14.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.55B	2.54B	2.49B	2.43B	2.39B	1.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	176.92M	171.69M	161.63M	177.68M	230.42M	83.76M
Total Debt	522.74M	530.70M	570.28M	535.86M	421.69M	249.34M
Total Liabilities	748.82M	747.93M	786.80M	768.10M	766.37M	444.39M
Stockholders Equity	1.79B	1.79B	1.70B	1.67B	1.62B	910.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	127.61M	115.00M	4.93M	-20.94M	-55.80M	36.12M
Operating Cash Flow	221.68M	195.18M	224.97M	158.56M	132.05M	95.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-153.45M	-89.54M	-227.91M	-219.95M	-280.73M	-57.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-87.44M	-95.59M	-13.11M	8.64M	295.34M	-1.55M

Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.69, above the 50-day MA of 8.32, and above the 200-day MA of 9.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GTII.

Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GTII	71 Outperform	$2.67B	61.00	1.63%	―	7.06%	-54.16%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.73B	-0.08	-40.59%	2.23%	22.72%	-1.44%
ACB	―	$287.64M	97.05	-0.70%	―	―	―
CURLF	―	$2.20B	―	-24.93%	―	―	―
TCNNF	―	$1.53B	―	-12.60%	―	―	―
CRLBF	―	$501.83M	―	-10.02%	―	―	―
VRNOF	―	$1.56B	―	-32.20%	―	―	―

Green Thumb Industries Corporate Events

Green Thumb Industries Revamps Executive Compensation Strategy

Green Thumb Industries Inc. revamped its executive compensation plan, rewarding top leaders with significant Restricted Share Units (RSUs) to recognize their leadership and encourage retention. CEO Benjamin Kovler and President Anthony Georgiadis will each receive 750,000 RSUs and a $300,000 cash bonus, while CFO Mathew Faulkner and General Counsel Bret Kravitz will each get 300,000 RSUs. Additionally, annual cash bonus targets for Kovler and Georgiadis have been increased to 325% and 300% of their base salaries, respectively, underlining the company’s commitment to rewarding its key executives.