Green Thumb Industries (GTII) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 134.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 6.18%
• EPS Growth: -28.69%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 4,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 207,360,930
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 166,363
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 134,987
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$23.19
• Price Target Upside: 105.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$10.00 ▼(-11.58% Downside)

Green Thumb Industries benefits from strong technical momentum and solid financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow generation. However, the high P/E ratio indicates a premium valuation, which could limit upside potential. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Vertically integrated national CPG + retail model

Vertical integration across cultivation, manufacturing, distribution and owned RISE retail stores strengthens control over product quality, margins and shelf placement. This multi-channel model supports durable revenue diversification and market share gains as state markets expand over the next 2–6 months.

Robust revenue growth

A 39% TTM revenue increase signals persistent product demand and successful distribution/retail execution. Sustained top-line expansion provides scale benefits, higher utilization of fixed production capacity, and a stronger base to absorb costs, supporting medium-term growth initiatives and M&A integration.

Improving cash generation and free cash flow

Material improvement in operating cash flow and 21.1% FCF growth demonstrate the company's ability to convert earnings into cash. Strong cash generation enhances financial flexibility for store expansion, capex, debt management or brand investment, reducing dependence on external financing over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Profitability compression at net income level

Net margin decline from 6.43% to 2.51% shows shrinking retained profitability despite revenue growth. Persistently low net margins limit reinvestment capacity, raise sensitivity to cost inflation or tax changes, and make it harder to build sustainable EPS momentum without margin recovery or higher revenue quality.

Declining return on equity

ROE falling to 1.62% from 4.08% indicates weaker capital efficiency and lower returns on shareholder equity. Over the medium term this can constrain investor returns and signals the need for either higher margins, better asset utilization, or more accretive capital deployment to justify equity capital.

Lower operating margins and limited forward transparency

Decreases in EBIT/EBITDA margins point to operational cost pressure or pricing challenges. Coupled with no formal guidance disclosed, this reduces visibility into management's plan to restore margin levels, complicating medium-term planning and making cash reinvestment and profit recovery less certain.

Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Thumb Industries Inc. engages in manufacture, distribution, and sale of various cannabis products for medical and adult-use in the United States. It offers cannabis flower; and processed and packaged products, including pre-rolls, concentrates, vapes, tinctures, edibles, topicals, and other cannabis-related products under the Beboe, Dogwalkers, Doctor Solomon's, Good Green, incredibles, and RHYTHM brands. The company distributes its products primarily to third-party retail stores, as well as sells finished products directly to consumers in its own retail stores. As of April 11, 2022, it owned and operated 77 retail stores in the United States. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Thumb Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis products across its retail locations and wholesale distribution to third-party retailers. The company has multiple revenue streams, including direct sales from its RISE dispensaries, wholesale supply agreements with other dispensaries, and the sale of its branded product lines. Additionally, GTII benefits from partnerships with cultivators and manufacturers that enhance its product offerings and market reach. The expanding legalization of cannabis in various states and GTII's strategic acquisitions further contribute to its earnings, allowing the company to tap into new markets and increase its customer base.

Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Thumb Industries demonstrates strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, but faces challenges in maintaining profitability margins. The balance sheet remains stable with a healthy equity position, though return on equity has declined. Overall, the company is in a solid financial position, but needs to address profitability pressures.

Income Statement

Green Thumb Industries shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 39%, indicating robust demand. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 2.51% from 6.43% in the previous year, reflecting pressure on profitability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 51.58%, but has slightly declined from 52.86% in the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting increased operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is stable at 0.29, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity has decreased to 1.62% from 4.08%, showing reduced profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid financial structure with adequate equity backing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has improved significantly, with a TTM coverage ratio of 1.24, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow growth is positive at 21.10%, reflecting improved cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.58 suggests efficient conversion of profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.16B	1.14B	1.05B	1.02B	893.56M	556.57M
Gross Profit	591.63M	601.11M	526.50M	503.96M	491.93M	304.17M
EBITDA	369.09M	392.00M	324.14M	270.28M	329.53M	200.39M
Net Income	43.63M	73.08M	36.27M	11.98M	75.44M	14.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.64B	2.54B	2.49B	2.43B	2.39B	1.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	235.41M	171.69M	161.63M	177.68M	230.42M	83.76M
Total Debt	518.06M	530.70M	570.28M	535.86M	431.69M	249.34M
Total Liabilities	804.27M	747.93M	786.80M	768.10M	766.37M	444.39M
Stockholders Equity	1.83B	1.79B	1.70B	1.67B	1.62B	910.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	154.54M	115.00M	4.93M	-20.94M	-55.80M	36.12M
Operating Cash Flow	248.12M	195.18M	224.97M	158.56M	132.05M	95.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-147.34M	-89.54M	-227.91M	-219.95M	-280.73M	-57.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-39.01M	-95.59M	-13.11M	8.64M	295.34M	-1.55M

Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.60, above the 50-day MA of 10.31, and above the 200-day MA of 9.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GTII.

Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GTII	75 Outperform	C$2.29B	38.20	2.42%	―	6.18%	-28.69%
TRUL	60 Neutral	C$2.01B	-10.72	-9.95%	―	4.27%	3.41%
CURA	58 Neutral	C$2.44B	-6.48	-27.61%	―	-3.38%	-31.35%
CL	52 Neutral	C$658.48M	-7.17	-11.79%	―	-6.48%	22.63%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
VRNO	49 Neutral	C$2.17B	-4.68	-33.01%	―	-4.58%	-141.91%
JUSH	47 Neutral	C$161.29M	-1.75	―	―	3.17%	-24.07%

Green Thumb Industries Corporate Events

Green Thumb Industries Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results and Expands Adult-Use Cannabis Sales

Green Thumb Industries reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a revenue of $291.4 million, a 1.6% increase from the previous year. The company achieved a GAAP net income of $23.3 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $80.2 million, representing 27.5% of revenue. Significant operational highlights include the commencement of adult-use cannabis sales at seven RISE Dispensaries in Minnesota, with the eighth following shortly after. These developments underscore Green Thumb’s strategic expansion in the adult-use cannabis market, potentially enhancing its market positioning and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GTII) stock is a Hold with a C$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Thumb Industries stock, see the TSE:GTII Stock Forecast page.