Green Thumb Industries (GTII) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.61B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 79.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 8.77%
• EPS Growth: -10.79%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 4,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 212,603,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 74,975
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 79,181
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -17.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.32
• 1Y Price Target: $17.42
• Price Target Upside: 159.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.50 ▲(11.77%Upside)

Green Thumb Industries scores moderately due to strong financial health and potential growth opportunities despite current profitability and pricing challenges. Technical indicators reflect weak momentum, and valuation suggests reasonable pricing. Mixed earnings call sentiment, with highlighted growth potential in new markets, balances the risks.

Positive Factors

Brand Positioning and Market Share

The company’s strong brand positioning continues to drive market share gains across key states, while upside exists from THC beverages and alternative distribution models.

Cash Flow and Financial Resilience

The company generated $74M in operating cash flow, reinforcing its reputation for capital discipline and financial resilience despite persistent pricing pressure, rising retail competition, and increasing macro and regulatory uncertainty.

Investment and Financial Position

Green Thumb’s $211M cash position and $258M in working capital support continued investment, opportunistic M&A, and downside protection amid sector volatility.

Negative Factors

Comparable Sales Decline

Comparable sales fell 5% YoY on a 90-store base, with retail revenue down 3% as competition and price compression accelerated in core markets like Illinois and New Jersey.

Federal Cannabis Reform Skepticism

Management remains skeptical about significant federal cannabis reform in 2025, citing regulatory uncertainty under the new administration.

Marginal Pressure and Pricing

Management warned that AEBITDA margins are expected to fall below 30%, compared to Q1’s 31% and consensus expectations of $88M in AEBITDA, reflecting continued pricing pressure, a highly competitive retail environment, and cautious consumer spending.

Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Thumb Industries (GTII) is a national cannabis consumer packaged goods company and retailer operating in the United States. It is involved in the cultivation, manufacturing, and distribution of a wide array of cannabis products. These products include flower, concentrates, edibles, and topicals, which are sold through its own retail stores as well as third-party dispensaries. The company focuses on delivering high-quality cannabis experiences through its family of brands, including RYTHM, Dogwalkers, and Beboe, among others.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Thumb Industries makes money primarily through the sale of cannabis products in both wholesale and retail markets. The company's revenue model is driven by its vertically integrated operations, which allow it to control the entire supply chain from cultivation to sale. Key revenue streams include direct sales from its network of retail stores under the Rise and Essence brands, as well as wholesale distribution to other dispensaries. Additionally, Green Thumb benefits from strategic partnerships and acquisitions that expand its market presence and product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Thumb Industries demonstrates strong revenue growth and a stable financial foundation. The company shows effective operating performance, but faces challenges in improving profitability margins and achieving consistent free cash flow growth. A solid equity base and moderate leverage support potential future growth.

Income Statement

Green Thumb Industries has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from $556 million in 2020 to $1.14 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin remains robust, consistently above 50%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has been relatively low, with TTM figures showing a net profit margin of 4.41%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting effective operating performance, but the slight decline in EBIT margin from prior periods needs monitoring.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Green Thumb Industries shows a strong equity base with an equity ratio of approximately 70% in TTM, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.29, suggesting reasonable leverage levels. ROE has improved over the years, supported by increasing net income, but remains modest, indicating potential for higher returns on shareholder equity. The company's cash position has improved, with increased cash and short-term investments since 2020.

Cash Flow

Green Thumb Industries has shown a positive trend in operating cash flow, with TTM operating cash flow at $185 million. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, with a decrease in TTM compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests good cash generation relative to profits. The company must address fluctuations in free cash flow to enhance liquidity and support strategic investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.14B	1.14B	1.05B	1.02B	893.56M	556.57M
	Gross Profit
599.46M	601.11M	526.50M	503.96M	491.93M	304.17M
	EBIT
196.24M	224.43M	184.63M	121.06M	214.84M	106.11M
	EBITDA
367.72M	392.00M	324.14M	270.28M	329.53M	200.39M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
50.31M	73.08M	36.27M	11.98M	75.44M	14.99M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
210.58M	171.69M	161.63M	177.68M	230.42M	83.76M
	Total Assets
2.57B	2.54B	2.49B	2.43B	2.39B	1.36B
	Total Debt
525.81M	530.70M	570.28M	535.86M	421.69M	249.34M
	Net Debt
315.23M	359.01M	408.65M	358.17M	191.27M	165.59M
	Total Liabilities
762.74M	747.93M	786.80M	768.10M	766.37M	444.39M
	Stockholders Equity
1.81B	1.79B	1.70B	1.67B	1.62B	910.62M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
90.06M	115.00M	4.93M	-20.94M	-55.80M	36.12M
	Operating Cash Flow
185.38M	195.18M	224.97M	158.56M	132.05M	95.92M
	Investing Cash Flow
-109.84M	-89.54M	-227.91M	-219.95M	-280.73M	-57.27M
	Financing Cash Flow
-88.90M	-95.59M	-13.11M	8.64M	295.34M	-1.55M

Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.26, below the 50-day MA of 7.56, and below the 200-day MA of 10.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GTII.

Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GTII	63 Neutral	$1.61B	23.00	2.83%	―	8.77%	-10.79%
CURA	56 Neutral	$840.60M	―	-25.08%	―	-0.11%	11.22%
TRUL	54 Neutral	C$976.41M	―	-12.39%	―	7.23%	64.93%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
CL	51 Neutral	C$298.92M	―	-17.34%	―	-4.38%	46.68%
ACB	50 Neutral	$454.44M	34.32	4.78%	―	16.39%	-98.10%
VRNO	49 Neutral	C$2.17B	―	-31.94%	―	-4.13%	-218.59%

Green Thumb Industries Corporate Events

Green Thumb Industries Revamps Executive Compensation Strategy

Green Thumb Industries Inc. revamped its executive compensation plan, rewarding top leaders with significant Restricted Share Units (RSUs) to recognize their leadership and encourage retention. CEO Benjamin Kovler and President Anthony Georgiadis will each receive 750,000 RSUs and a $300,000 cash bonus, while CFO Mathew Faulkner and General Counsel Bret Kravitz will each get 300,000 RSUs. Additionally, annual cash bonus targets for Kovler and Georgiadis have been increased to 325% and 300% of their base salaries, respectively, underlining the company’s commitment to rewarding its key executives.