Green Thumb Industries (OTC) (TSE:GTII)
OTHER OTC:GTII
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Green Thumb Industries
(OTC:GTII)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$10.50
▲(11.23% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven by solid financial performance—especially strong recent free cash flow and improved net profitability—partly offset by margin compression and rising leverage. Technical indicators are a meaningful drag, with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation (P/E ~13.1) is supportive but not enough to overcome weak momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, materially higher free cash flow since 2023 means the business now funds operations and investments from internal cash. That improves resilience to regulatory cycles, supports reinvestment in stores and brands, and gives scope to pay down debt or fund M&A without relying on capital markets.
Negative Factors
Operating margin compression
Material margin compression signals structural cost or pricing pressure rather than transitory items. If higher input, labor, or compliance costs persist, margin erosion can outpace revenue gains, weakening free cash flow conversion and reducing the cushion for reinvestment or debt reduction over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, materially higher free cash flow since 2023 means the business now funds operations and investments from internal cash. That improves resilience to regulatory cycles, supports reinvestment in stores and brands, and gives scope to pay down debt or fund M&A without relying on capital markets.
Read all positive factors
Green Thumb Industries (GTII) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.13B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)131.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth6.18%
EPS Growth-28.69%
CountryCA
Employees4,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding207,620,380
10 Day Avg. Volume143,414
30 Day Avg. Volume131,510
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.58
P/FCF Ratio8.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$20.93Price Target Upside121.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.21B
Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Thumb Industries Inc. engages in manufacture, distribution, and sale of various cannabis products for medical and adult-use in the United States. It offers cannabis flower; and processed and packaged products, including pre-rolls, concentrat...
How the Company Makes Money
GTI primarily makes money by selling cannabis products through two main channels: (1) retail sales at company-owned dispensaries and (2) wholesale sales to third-party dispensaries and other licensed operators. In retail, GTI generates revenue dir...
Green Thumb Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While the company reported revenue growth, strong brand performance, and strategic investments, it faced challenges from price compression, regulatory uncertainties, and increased expenses. The sentiment is cautious with a focus on long-term growth and market expansion amidst the industry's ongoing challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Green Thumb Industries reported Q2 revenue of $293 million, a 5% increase over the comparable period, and adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, representing 28% of revenue.
Negative Updates
Price Compression Challenges
The company faced persistent price compression across key markets, affecting gross profit margins which decreased from 54% to 50% year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Green Thumb Industries reported Q2 revenue of $293 million, a 5% increase over the comparable period, and adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, representing 28% of revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Green Thumb Industries' second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue, totaling $293 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, representing 28% of the revenue. The company's cash flow from operations was $56 million, and they bought back 5.6 million shares for $24 million at an average cost of $4.28 per share. Green Thumb highlighted their strategic focus on brand expansion, with successful initiatives like the Rythm Bud Balls events and the launch of Rythm THC beverages. They also invested $19 million in capital expenditures during the quarter, focusing on store relocations, renovations, and openings in several states. Despite challenges such as price compression and regulatory uncertainty, Green Thumb remains optimistic about the long-term THC market, with a strong balance sheet featuring $177 million in cash and $226 million in working capital.Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.14B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 893.56M |
| Gross Profit | 548.94M | 601.11M | 526.50M | 503.96M | 491.93M |
| EBITDA | 340.57M | 392.00M | 324.14M | 270.28M | 329.53M |
| Net Income | 116.15M | 73.08M | 36.27M | 11.98M | 75.44M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.78B | 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.43B | 2.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 284.76M | 171.69M | 161.63M | 177.68M | 230.42M |
| Total Debt | 772.04M | 530.70M | 570.28M | 535.86M | 431.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 877.81M | 747.93M | 786.80M | 768.10M | 766.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.67B | 1.62B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 217.60M | 115.00M | 4.93M | -20.94M | -55.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 300.09M | 195.18M | 224.97M | 158.56M | 132.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -132.67M | -89.54M | -227.91M | -219.95M | -280.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.83M | -95.59M | -13.11M | 8.64M | 295.34M |
Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis
Positive
9.44
Price Trends
9.04
Positive
9.58
Negative
9.82
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
54.52
Neutral
62.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.96, above the 50-day MA of 9.04, and below the 200-day MA of 9.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GTII.
Green Thumb Industries Risk Analysis
Green Thumb Industries disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Thumb Industries reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | C$2.13B | 16.23 | 6.29% | ― | 6.18% | -28.69% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.67B | -13.95 | -9.71% | ― | 4.27% | 3.41% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | C$2.61B | -8.05 | -28.58% | ― | -3.38% | -31.35% | |
49 Neutral | C$139.79M | -2.48 | 75.97% | ― | 3.17% | -24.07% | |
48 Neutral | C$2.17B | -1.75 | -30.10% | ― | -4.58% | -141.91% | |
45 Neutral | C$561.12M | -3.01 | -33.00% | ― | -6.48% | 22.63% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TSE:GTII
Green Thumb Industries
9.22
2.20
31.34%
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TSE:TRUL
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TSE:CL
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.