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Green Thumb Industries (OTC) (TSE:GTII)
OTHER OTC:GTII
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Green Thumb Industries
(OTC:GTII)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$9.50
▼(-16.00% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven by solid financial performance—especially strong recent free cash flow and improved net profitability—partly offset by margin compression and rising leverage. Technical indicators are a meaningful drag, with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation (P/E ~13.1) is supportive but not enough to overcome weak momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistently positive and sharply improved free cash flow in 2025 provides durable internal funding for capex, working capital and brand investment, reducing reliance on external financing. Sustained FCF strengthens strategic optionality and supports longer-term deleveraging or M&A.
Improved net profitability
A meaningful rise in net margin signals better earnings conversion and operational leverage at the bottom line. Higher profitability improves retained earnings and reinvestment capacity, supporting sustained returns on capital and resilience through cyclical or regulatory shifts in the cannabis industry.
Vertical integration and branded retail footprint
Control across cultivation, manufacturing and retail plus owned brands delivers durable competitive advantages: higher captured margins, quality control, product differentiation, and better retail economics. Multi-state retail scale spreads fixed costs and diversifies state-level demand risk.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
An upward debt trend reduces financial flexibility and increases interest burden, limiting ability to weather sustained margin pressure or fund growth without external support. Higher leverage constrains strategic moves and raises refinancing and covenant risks if cash flows deteriorate.
Operating margin compression
Widespread margin compression points to structural cost pressures or weakening pricing power. If persistent, this erodes cash generation and makes it harder to sustain the improved net income and FCF profile, forcing either cost restructuring or increased investment to restore competitiveness.
Modest revenue growth
Slowing revenue growth limits operating leverage and reduces room to absorb fixed costs, signaling possible market saturation or intensifying competition in key states. Over the medium term this constrains scale benefits and makes sustained margin expansion and EPS growth more challenging.
Green Thumb Industries (GTII) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)150.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth6.18%
EPS Growth-28.69%
CountryCA
Employees4,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding207,620,380
10 Day Avg. Volume119,589
30 Day Avg. Volume150,747
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.58
P/FCF Ratio8.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$21.63Price Target Upside91.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.21B
Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreen Thumb Industries Inc. engages in manufacture, distribution, and sale of various cannabis products for medical and adult-use in the United States. It offers cannabis flower; and processed and packaged products, including pre-rolls, concentrates, vapes, tinctures, edibles, topicals, and other cannabis-related products under the Beboe, Dogwalkers, Doctor Solomon's, Good Green, incredibles, and RHYTHM brands. The company distributes its products primarily to third-party retail stores, as well as sells finished products directly to consumers in its own retail stores. As of April 11, 2022, it owned and operated 77 retail stores in the United States. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Thumb Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis products across its retail locations and wholesale distribution to third-party retailers. The company has multiple revenue streams, including direct sales from its RISE dispensaries, wholesale supply agreements with other dispensaries, and the sale of its branded product lines. Additionally, GTII benefits from partnerships with cultivators and manufacturers that enhance its product offerings and market reach. The expanding legalization of cannabis in various states and GTII's strategic acquisitions further contribute to its earnings, allowing the company to tap into new markets and increase its customer base.
Green Thumb Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While the company reported revenue growth, strong brand performance, and strategic investments, it faced challenges from price compression, regulatory uncertainties, and increased expenses. The sentiment is cautious with a focus on long-term growth and market expansion amidst the industry's ongoing challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Green Thumb Industries reported Q2 revenue of $293 million, a 5% increase over the comparable period, and adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, representing 28% of revenue.
Strong Brand Performance
Brands like Rythm, Dogwalkers, and incredibles showed significant strength and high awareness, contributing to the company's strong market presence.
Expansion in Key Markets
The company expanded its CPG market share in key states like Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, and is preparing for adult-use sales in Minnesota.
Strategic Investments
Green Thumb became a major investor in Agrify Corporation, focusing on THC drinks, and plans to introduce Rythm THC beverages to more markets.
Strong Cash Flow and Share Buyback
The company generated $56 million in cash flow from operations and bought back 5.6 million shares at an average cost of $4.28 per share.
Negative Updates
Price Compression Challenges
The company faced persistent price compression across key markets, affecting gross profit margins which decreased from 54% to 50% year-over-year.
Regulatory and Market Uncertainties
Lack of clarity on cannabis policy and institutional investment continues to challenge the sector, impacting long-term strategic planning.
Decline in Comparable Store Sales
Comparable sales for stores open at least 12 months decreased by 4% compared to the prior year period, attributed to price compression.
Increased SG&A Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $107 million, representing 36% of revenue, up from 34% in the prior year period.
Net Loss and EBITDA Decline
The company reported a net loss of $1 million, and adjusted EBITDA decreased from $94 million in Q2 2024 to $83 million in Q2 2025.
Company Guidance
During Green Thumb Industries' second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue, totaling $293 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, representing 28% of the revenue. The company's cash flow from operations was $56 million, and they bought back 5.6 million shares for $24 million at an average cost of $4.28 per share. Green Thumb highlighted their strategic focus on brand expansion, with successful initiatives like the Rythm Bud Balls events and the launch of Rythm THC beverages. They also invested $19 million in capital expenditures during the quarter, focusing on store relocations, renovations, and openings in several states. Despite challenges such as price compression and regulatory uncertainty, Green Thumb remains optimistic about the long-term THC market, with a strong balance sheet featuring $177 million in cash and $226 million in working capital.Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are solid, led by strong cash flow improvement (free cash flow up sharply in 2025 and consistently positive since 2023) and better net profitability (net margin rose to ~9.7%). Offsetting this, operating margins compressed in 2025 and leverage increased (debt-to-equity ~0.41 vs. ~0.30 in 2024), which raises risk if cost/price pressure persists.Income Statement
Revenue has grown steadily since 2022, but the latest year shows only modest top-line growth (2025: +3.2% vs. 2024: +7.8%). Profitability improved at the bottom line (net margin rose to ~9.7% in 2025 from ~6.4% in 2024), indicating better earnings conversion. However, operating profitability compressed materially in 2025 (gross, operating, and EBITDA margins all declined versus 2024), which suggests higher costs and/or weaker pricing power despite higher net income.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet remains equity-supported with moderate leverage (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.41), but leverage has increased versus 2024 (~0.30) as total debt stepped up. Equity has continued to build over time, and returns on equity improved in 2025 (~6.1%) from 2024 (~4.1%), signaling better profitability on the capital base. The key watch item is the upward debt trend, which reduces flexibility if margin pressure persists.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation strengthened meaningfully in 2025 with operating cash flow of ~$300M and free cash flow of ~$218M, up sharply from 2024 (free cash flow ~$115M). Free cash flow has improved from negative levels in 2021–2022 to consistently positive in 2023–2025, indicating better capital discipline and cash conversion. A limitation is that free cash flow still trails net income in 2025 (about 73% of net income), implying some earnings are not fully translating into free cash after investment needs.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.14B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 893.56M |
| Gross Profit | 548.94M | 601.11M | 526.50M | 503.96M | 491.93M |
| EBITDA | 340.57M | 392.00M | 324.14M | 270.28M | 329.53M |
| Net Income | 116.15M | 73.08M | 36.27M | 11.98M | 75.44M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.78B | 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.43B | 2.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 284.76M | 171.69M | 161.63M | 177.68M | 230.42M |
| Total Debt | 772.04M | 530.70M | 570.28M | 535.86M | 431.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 877.81M | 747.93M | 786.80M | 768.10M | 766.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.67B | 1.62B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 217.60M | 115.00M | 4.93M | -20.94M | -55.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 300.09M | 195.18M | 224.97M | 158.56M | 132.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -132.67M | -89.54M | -227.91M | -219.95M | -280.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.83M | -95.59M | -13.11M | 8.64M | 295.34M |
Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.31
Price Trends
9.65
Negative
9.71
Negative
9.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Negative
48.08
Neutral
71.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.87, above the 50-day MA of 9.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GTII.
Green Thumb Industries Risk Analysis
Green Thumb Industries disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Thumb Industries reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | C$2.08B | 16.23 | 6.29% | ― | 6.18% | -28.69% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.67B | -13.95 | -9.71% | ― | 4.27% | 3.41% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | C$2.45B | -8.05 | -28.58% | ― | -3.38% | -31.35% | |
48 Neutral | C$2.17B | -1.75 | -30.10% | ― | -4.58% | -141.91% | |
47 Neutral | C$137.69M | -2.14 | 88.51% | ― | 3.17% | -24.07% | |
45 Neutral | C$601.92M | -1.18 | -33.00% | ― | -6.48% | 22.63% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TSE:GTII
Green Thumb Industries
8.99
0.48
5.64%
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TSE:TRUL
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50.00%
TSE:CL
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TSE:VRNO
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0.00
0.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.