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Green Thumb Industries (OTC) (TSE:GTII)
OTHER OTC:GTII
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Green Thumb Industries
(OTC:GTII)
Select Model
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$12.50
▲(17.92% Upside)
Green Thumb Industries benefits from strong technical momentum and solid financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow generation. However, the high P/E ratio indicates a premium valuation, which could limit upside potential. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.
Positive Factors
Regulatory Tailwinds
Rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III could reduce regulatory burdens and enhance market access, benefiting GTII's growth prospects.
Revenue Growth
Robust revenue growth indicates strong demand and effective market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion.
Cash Flow Generation
Improved cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and debt management.
Negative Factors
Profitability Pressures
Declining profit margins indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, which could hinder long-term profitability if not addressed.
Return on Equity Decline
A declining return on equity suggests reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' investments, impacting investor confidence.
Margin Sustainability
Decreasing EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect increased operational costs, challenging the sustainability of current profit levels.
Green Thumb Industries (GTII) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)309.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.1
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth6.18%
EPS Growth-28.69%
CountryCA
Employees4,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding207,360,930
10 Day Avg. Volume675,318
30 Day Avg. Volume309,673
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio17.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$21.44Price Target Upside102.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.59B
Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreen Thumb Industries Inc. engages in manufacture, distribution, and sale of various cannabis products for medical and adult-use in the United States. It offers cannabis flower; and processed and packaged products, including pre-rolls, concentrates, vapes, tinctures, edibles, topicals, and other cannabis-related products under the Beboe, Dogwalkers, Doctor Solomon's, Good Green, incredibles, and RHYTHM brands. The company distributes its products primarily to third-party retail stores, as well as sells finished products directly to consumers in its own retail stores. As of April 11, 2022, it owned and operated 77 retail stores in the United States. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Thumb Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis products across its retail locations and wholesale distribution to third-party retailers. The company has multiple revenue streams, including direct sales from its RISE dispensaries, wholesale supply agreements with other dispensaries, and the sale of its branded product lines. Additionally, GTII benefits from partnerships with cultivators and manufacturers that enhance its product offerings and market reach. The expanding legalization of cannabis in various states and GTII's strategic acquisitions further contribute to its earnings, allowing the company to tap into new markets and increase its customer base.
Green Thumb Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While the company reported revenue growth, strong brand performance, and strategic investments, it faced challenges from price compression, regulatory uncertainties, and increased expenses. The sentiment is cautious with a focus on long-term growth and market expansion amidst the industry's ongoing challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Green Thumb Industries reported Q2 revenue of $293 million, a 5% increase over the comparable period, and adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, representing 28% of revenue.
Strong Brand Performance
Brands like Rythm, Dogwalkers, and incredibles showed significant strength and high awareness, contributing to the company's strong market presence.
Expansion in Key Markets
The company expanded its CPG market share in key states like Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, and is preparing for adult-use sales in Minnesota.
Strategic Investments
Green Thumb became a major investor in Agrify Corporation, focusing on THC drinks, and plans to introduce Rythm THC beverages to more markets.
Strong Cash Flow and Share Buyback
The company generated $56 million in cash flow from operations and bought back 5.6 million shares at an average cost of $4.28 per share.
Negative Updates
Price Compression Challenges
The company faced persistent price compression across key markets, affecting gross profit margins which decreased from 54% to 50% year-over-year.
Regulatory and Market Uncertainties
Lack of clarity on cannabis policy and institutional investment continues to challenge the sector, impacting long-term strategic planning.
Decline in Comparable Store Sales
Comparable sales for stores open at least 12 months decreased by 4% compared to the prior year period, attributed to price compression.
Increased SG&A Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $107 million, representing 36% of revenue, up from 34% in the prior year period.
Net Loss and EBITDA Decline
The company reported a net loss of $1 million, and adjusted EBITDA decreased from $94 million in Q2 2024 to $83 million in Q2 2025.
Company Guidance
During Green Thumb Industries' second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue, totaling $293 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, representing 28% of the revenue. The company's cash flow from operations was $56 million, and they bought back 5.6 million shares for $24 million at an average cost of $4.28 per share. Green Thumb highlighted their strategic focus on brand expansion, with successful initiatives like the Rythm Bud Balls events and the launch of Rythm THC beverages. They also invested $19 million in capital expenditures during the quarter, focusing on store relocations, renovations, and openings in several states. Despite challenges such as price compression and regulatory uncertainty, Green Thumb remains optimistic about the long-term THC market, with a strong balance sheet featuring $177 million in cash and $226 million in working capital.Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Green Thumb Industries demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, as evidenced by solid profit margins and cash flow metrics. However, the decline in net profit margin and return on equity suggests potential areas for improvement in profitability and shareholder returns. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage, supporting the company's growth prospects.Income Statement
Green Thumb Industries shows a solid revenue growth trajectory with a TTM growth rate of 14.9%, indicating strong market demand. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 52.5%, though slightly lower than previous years. Net profit margin has decreased to 4.4% TTM from 6.4% in 2024, suggesting some pressure on net earnings. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operational management.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is stable at 0.29 TTM, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity has decreased to 1.6% TTM, which may point to challenges in generating returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid asset base relative to liabilities.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is strong, with a coverage ratio close to 1, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has grown significantly by 41.7% TTM, showing improved cash efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, reflecting effective cash management.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 1.14B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 893.56M | 556.57M |
| Gross Profit | 591.63M | 601.11M | 526.50M | 503.96M | 491.93M | 304.17M |
| EBITDA | 369.09M | 392.00M | 324.14M | 270.28M | 329.53M | 200.39M |
| Net Income | 43.63M | 73.08M | 36.27M | 11.98M | 75.44M | 14.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.64B | 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.43B | 2.39B | 1.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 235.41M | 171.69M | 161.63M | 177.68M | 230.42M | 83.76M |
| Total Debt | 518.06M | 530.70M | 570.28M | 535.86M | 431.69M | 249.34M |
| Total Liabilities | 804.27M | 747.93M | 786.80M | 768.10M | 766.37M | 444.39M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.83B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.67B | 1.62B | 910.62M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 154.54M | 115.00M | 4.93M | -20.94M | -55.80M | 36.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 248.12M | 195.18M | 224.97M | 158.56M | 132.05M | 95.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -147.34M | -89.54M | -227.91M | -219.95M | -280.73M | -57.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -39.01M | -95.59M | -13.11M | 8.64M | 295.34M | -1.55M |
Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis
Positive
10.60
Price Trends
9.76
Positive
10.47
Positive
9.13
Positive
Market Momentum
0.57
Negative
52.24
Neutral
39.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.97, above the 50-day MA of 9.76, and above the 200-day MA of 9.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GTII.
Green Thumb Industries Risk Analysis
Green Thumb Industries disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Thumb Industries reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$2.46B | 41.07 | 2.42% | ― | 6.18% | -28.69% | |
60 Neutral | C$2.04B | -10.87 | -9.95% | ― | 4.27% | 3.41% | |
58 Neutral | C$2.97B | -7.90 | -27.61% | ― | -3.38% | -31.35% | |
52 Neutral | C$734.12M | -7.99 | -11.79% | ― | -6.48% | 22.63% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | C$361.20M | -6.19 | -10.76% | ― | 23.87% | -19.57% | |
49 Neutral | $2.17B | -4.68 | -33.01% | ― | -4.58% | -141.91% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TSE:GTII
Green Thumb Industries
10.60
-0.59
-5.27%
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55.93%
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Green Thumb Industries Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Green Thumb Industries Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results and Expands Adult-Use Cannabis Sales
Positive
Nov 5, 2025
Green Thumb Industries reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a revenue of $291.4 million, a 1.6% increase from the previous year. The company achieved a GAAP net income of $23.3 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $80.2 million, representing 27.5% of revenue. Significant operational highlights include the commencement of adult-use cannabis sales at seven RISE Dispensaries in Minnesota, with the eighth following shortly after. These developments underscore Green Thumb’s strategic expansion in the adult-use cannabis market, potentially enhancing its market positioning and stakeholder value.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.