Green Thumb Industries (GTII) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 145.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.37
• Revenue Growth: 8.77%
• EPS Growth: -10.79%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 4,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 212,603,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 171,948
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 145,536
• PEG Ratio: -1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.16
• 1Y Price Target: $17.56
• Price Target Upside: 108.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$9.00 ▲(7.02%Upside)

Green Thumb Industries' strong financial foundation and growth prospects are offset by challenges in profitability and pricing pressures. Technical indicators and valuation suggest caution, while the earnings call reflects a mixed outlook with both growth and challenges.

Positive Factors

Brand Positioning

The company’s strong brand positioning continues to drive market share gains across key states, with upside from THC beverages and alternative distribution models.

Financial Performance

The company generated $74M in operating cash flow, reinforcing its reputation for capital discipline and financial resilience despite persistent pricing pressure.

Investment Strategy

Green Thumb’s $211M cash position and $258M in working capital support continued investment, opportunistic M&A, and downside protection amid sector volatility.

Negative Factors

Margin Pressure

Management warned that AEBITDA margins are expected to fall below 30%, reflecting continued pricing pressure and a highly competitive retail environment.

Regulatory Environment

Management remains skeptical about significant federal cannabis reform, citing regulatory uncertainty under the new administration.

Sales Performance

Comparable sales fell 5% YoY on a 90-store base, with retail revenue down 3% as competition and price compression accelerated in core markets like Illinois and New Jersey.

Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Thumb Industries (GTII) is a leading national cannabis consumer packaged goods company and retailer in the United States. GTII is involved in the cultivation, manufacturing, and distribution of cannabis products, catering to both medicinal and recreational markets. The company operates under various brand names and owns a network of retail stores across multiple states, providing a broad selection of cannabis products including flower, edibles, concentrates, and topicals.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Thumb Industries generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale of cannabis products. The company operates a vertically integrated model, which involves cultivation, processing, and retail distribution, allowing GTII to control the entire supply chain and maximize profit margins. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to other dispensaries and direct sales through their own branded retail outlets. GTII's strategic partnerships and acquisitions further enhance its market presence and expand its distribution network. Additionally, the company benefits from regulatory developments that expand cannabis legalization, thus increasing its potential market size.

Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Thumb Industries shows strong revenue growth and stable financial health, with effective operating performance. However, challenges in profitability margins and inconsistent free cash flow growth remain. A solid equity base and moderate leverage provide a foundation for potential growth.

Income Statement

Green Thumb Industries has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from $556 million in 2020 to $1.14 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin remains robust, consistently above 50%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has been relatively low, with TTM figures showing a net profit margin of 4.41%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting effective operating performance, but the slight decline in EBIT margin from prior periods needs monitoring.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Green Thumb Industries shows a strong equity base with an equity ratio of approximately 70% in TTM, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.29, suggesting reasonable leverage levels. ROE has improved over the years, supported by increasing net income, but remains modest, indicating potential for higher returns on shareholder equity. The company's cash position has improved, with increased cash and short-term investments since 2020.

Cash Flow

Green Thumb Industries has shown a positive trend in operating cash flow, with TTM operating cash flow at $185 million. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, with a decrease in TTM compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests good cash generation relative to profits. The company must address fluctuations in free cash flow to enhance liquidity and support strategic investments.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.14B	1.05B	1.02B	893.56M	556.57M
Gross Profit	601.11M	526.50M	503.96M	491.93M	304.17M
EBITDA	392.00M	324.14M	270.28M	329.53M	200.39M
Net Income	73.08M	36.27M	11.98M	75.44M	14.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.54B	2.49B	2.43B	2.39B	1.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	171.69M	161.63M	177.68M	230.42M	83.76M
Total Debt	530.70M	570.28M	535.86M	421.69M	249.34M
Total Liabilities	747.93M	786.80M	768.10M	766.37M	444.39M
Stockholders Equity	1.79B	1.70B	1.67B	1.62B	910.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	115.00M	4.93M	-20.94M	-55.80M	36.12M
Operating Cash Flow	195.18M	224.97M	158.56M	132.05M	95.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-89.54M	-227.91M	-219.95M	-280.73M	-57.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-95.59M	-13.11M	8.64M	295.34M	-1.55M

Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.16, above the 50-day MA of 7.52, and below the 200-day MA of 9.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GTII.

Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GTII	67 Neutral	$1.97B	28.82	2.83%	―	8.77%	-10.79%
TRUL	63 Neutral	$1.21B	―	-12.39%	―	7.23%	64.93%
CURA	62 Neutral	$1.47B	―	-25.08%	―	-0.11%	11.22%
ACB	57 Neutral	$344.23M	107.03	3.05%	―	26.98%	―
CL	55 Neutral	$370.30M	―	-17.34%	―	-4.38%	46.68%
VRNO	49 Neutral	$2.17B	―	-31.94%	―	-4.13%	-218.59%
Sector *	46 Neutral	C$202.78M	-3.27	-23.14%	2.83%	20.78%	-1.17%

Green Thumb Industries Corporate Events

Green Thumb Industries Revamps Executive Compensation Strategy

Green Thumb Industries Inc. revamped its executive compensation plan, rewarding top leaders with significant Restricted Share Units (RSUs) to recognize their leadership and encourage retention. CEO Benjamin Kovler and President Anthony Georgiadis will each receive 750,000 RSUs and a $300,000 cash bonus, while CFO Mathew Faulkner and General Counsel Bret Kravitz will each get 300,000 RSUs. Additionally, annual cash bonus targets for Kovler and Georgiadis have been increased to 325% and 300% of their base salaries, respectively, underlining the company’s commitment to rewarding its key executives.