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Topaz Energy Corp (TSE:TPZ)
TSX:TPZ
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Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TPZ

Topaz Energy Corp

(TSX:TPZ)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$27.00
▲(8.13% Upside)
Topaz Energy Corp's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results, highlighting significant growth in production and financial metrics. However, financial performance challenges such as declining revenue and increased leverage, along with a high P/E ratio, temper the score. Technical indicators suggest a lack of strong momentum, adding to the cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Company Model
Topaz Energy Corp's differentiated model and diversified upstream exposure are appreciated by analysts.
Dividend
Investors should have increased confidence with another dividend bump, production guidance unchanged and a record 19% market-share of WCSB rig activity.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure also performed well and the recently acquired interest in LGN's new plant should provide further support to the dividend.
Market Share
Topaz Energy Corp's share of total WCSB drilling activity increased to 21%, matching a record high.
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic Environment
As a royalty company, it benefits from inherent advantages, notably its high-quality infrastructure assets and royalties on premier plays within Canada.
Market Conditions
Topaz continues to be a well-positioned, defensive name amid uncertainties in the current macro environment.

Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Topaz Energy Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTopaz Energy Corp (TPZ) is a Canadian-based oil and gas royalty and energy infrastructure company. The company primarily operates in the natural resources sector, focusing on acquiring and managing oil and gas royalty interests and infrastructure assets. Topaz Energy's core services include the development and management of energy infrastructure, as well as securing revenue streams from oil and gas production without being directly involved in exploration and production activities.
How the Company Makes MoneyTopaz Energy Corp generates revenue through a combination of royalty income and energy infrastructure services. The company's royalty income is derived from its ownership of royalty interests in various oil and gas properties, which entitles Topaz Energy to a percentage of the revenue from oil and gas production on those properties. This model allows the company to benefit from production without incurring the costs and risks associated with exploration and extraction. Additionally, Topaz Energy earns money from its energy infrastructure assets by providing services such as processing, transportation, and storage to other energy companies. These revenue streams are often supported by long-term contracts and partnerships with exploration and production companies, which contribute to the stability and predictability of Topaz Energy's earnings.

Topaz Energy Corp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial and operational performance for Topaz, with significant increases in royalty production, infrastructure revenue, and net income. While there are some challenges related to commodity prices and cautious hedging strategies, the overall growth and promising discoveries indicate a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Royalty Production
Topaz reported a 19% increase in royalty production to 22,300 BOE per day in Q2 2025, with crude and heavy oil production increasing by 9% and natural gas and liquids production increasing by 23% over Q2 2024.
Strong Financial Performance
Topaz generated total Q2 revenue of $81.2 million, with a 46% contribution from crude and heavy oil royalties. Free cash flow was $74 million, resulting in a 91% free cash flow margin, up from 89% last year. Net income was $28.2 million, a 50% increase from the prior year.
Infrastructure Revenue Growth
Quarterly infrastructure processing revenue increased by 37%, contributing to total processing revenue and other income of $22.8 million, a 25% increase over the prior year.
Successful Drilling Activity
Drilling activity was robust with 125 gross wells drilled, capturing 21% of total WCSB activity, up from 15% in Q2 last year.
Promising Discoveries
The Grand Rapids play discovery by Headwater, potentially extending into Tamarack acreage with an estimated 180 million barrels of oil in place, adds significant value to Topaz's portfolio.
Negative Updates
Challenging Commodity Prices
The market for gas remains tough, and oil prices have been backing off into the $60s, which could impact future drilling activity on some acreage.
Hedging Adjustments
The weighted average hedge price for gas for summer 2025 was lowered from CAD 3.30 to CAD 2.88 per Mcf, reflecting a cautious approach due to market conditions.
Company Guidance
During the Topaz Energy Corp Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance and updates on various metrics. Royalty production surged by 19% compared to the previous year, reaching 22,300 BOE per day, with crude and heavy oil production at 5,400 barrels per day (up 9%) and natural gas and liquids production at 16,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (up 23%). Total quarterly revenue was reported at $81.2 million, with a 46% contribution from crude and heavy oil royalties, 26% from natural gas and NGL royalties, and 28% from infrastructure, with processing revenue and other income increasing by 25% to $22.8 million. The company achieved a free cash flow of $74 million, resulting in a 91% free cash flow margin, an improvement from the previous year's 89%. Net income was $28.2 million, or $0.18 per share, marking a 50% increase. The company distributed $52.3 million in quarterly dividends, reflecting a 5.5% trailing annualized dividend yield. Topaz also reconfirmed its 2025 guidance ranges, expecting to end the year with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.2x and a payout ratio at the low end of the 60% to 90% target range, highlighting its financial flexibility for acquisition growth.

Topaz Energy Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Topaz Energy Corp shows strengths in maintaining a consistent EBITDA margin and a strong equity position. However, challenges such as declining revenue, increased leverage, and negative free cash flow highlight areas for improvement. The company needs to focus on revenue growth and managing its capital structure to ensure long-term financial health.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Topaz Energy Corp shows a stable gross profit margin and a positive EBITDA margin. However, the net profit margin is relatively low, and there is a decrease in total revenue from the previous year, indicating a challenge in revenue growth. The company's ability to maintain profitability through EBITDA is a positive sign, but the declining trend in EBIT and net income growth rate requires attention.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, suggesting a rise in leverage which might pose a risk if not managed properly. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid financial position. Return on equity shows potential, but the increasing debt levels and reduced cash reserves could impact financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Operating cash flow remains robust, though the free cash flow has turned negative due to significant capital expenditures. The company has a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, but the free cash flow decline indicates a need for careful management of capital expenditures to maintain liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue316.85M299.80M306.69M356.74M198.61M89.64M
Gross Profit111.50M103.36M89.30M147.28M43.19M4.15M
EBITDA322.37M293.16M315.42M351.57M193.10M88.22M
Net Income62.91M46.39M47.64M99.36M27.56M3.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.83B1.89B1.65B1.84B1.61B1.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.91M10.75M3.46M6.24M801.00K220.19M
Total Debt525.49M540.40M391.64M464.58M276.86M0.00
Total Liabilities578.60M578.33M403.37M473.44M286.83M2.82M
Stockholders Equity1.26B1.32B1.24B1.36B1.32B1.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-68.60M-161.63M246.03M-36.81M-757.08M82.39M
Operating Cash Flow297.65M276.27M300.58M317.88M165.02M83.64M
Investing Cash Flow-384.76M-439.99M-51.96M-354.10M-921.40M-172.63M
Financing Cash Flow87.41M160.41M-245.16M36.22M536.20M301.04M

Topaz Energy Corp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price24.97
Price Trends
50DMA
25.37
Negative
100DMA
24.92
Positive
200DMA
25.04
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.09
Negative
RSI
45.49
Neutral
STOCH
53.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TPZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.07, below the 50-day MA of 25.37, and below the 200-day MA of 25.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TPZ.

Topaz Energy Corp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
C$3.88B60.555.17%5.33%1.92%11.06%
66
Neutral
$15.26B7.303.22%5.27%4.16%-60.82%
$3.08B26.9217.22%6.35%
$1.58B17.4911.89%8.02%
$4.18B26.628.08%4.11%
82
Outperform
C$3.74B10.9712.21%7.09%7.02%7.16%
73
Outperform
C$10.22B19.2818.92%4.71%1.57%55.82%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
24.97
0.87
3.61%
GBNXF
Gibson Energy
18.94
3.88
25.76%
FRHLF
Freehold Royalties
9.62
0.75
8.46%
PREKF
PrairieSky Royalty
17.81
-0.79
-4.25%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
44.19
5.53
14.30%
TSE:PEY
Peyto Exploration & Dev
18.61
5.73
44.49%

Topaz Energy Corp Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Topaz Energy Corp. Reports Robust Q2 2025 Financial Growth
Positive
Jul 28, 2025

Topaz Energy Corp. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with notable growth in royalty and infrastructure sectors. The company achieved a 19% increase in royalty production and a 37% rise in processing revenue from its infrastructure assets. Topaz’s strategic acquisitions and development activities have contributed to increased production and revenue, enhancing its market position. The company also maintained a robust financial standing with a significant cash flow increase and a healthy dividend payout, while extending its credit facility to support future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TPZ) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Topaz Energy Corp stock, see the TSE:TPZ Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Topaz Energy Corp. Secures Shareholder Approval for Key Resolutions
Positive
May 7, 2025

Topaz Energy Corp. announced that all resolutions were approved at its annual shareholders’ meeting, including the appointment of eight directors and KPMG LLP as auditors. The company’s approach to executive compensation also received strong support. This outcome reflects shareholder confidence in Topaz’s strategic direction and governance, potentially strengthening its market position and stakeholder relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025