Gibson Energy (GEI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$5.13B
• Dividend Yield: 6.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 618.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -12.18%
• EPS Growth: -29.17%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 460
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 172,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 622,415
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 618,093
• PEG Ratio: 0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$29.19
• Price Target Upside: -2.10% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$8.97B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: C$29.00 ▼(-2.75% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is held back primarily by elevated and rising leverage alongside uneven revenue trends and thin margins, despite generally positive free cash flow. Technicals show an established uptrend but with overbought signals that raise near-term risk. A high dividend yield helps, while earnings call updates were constructive on operations and cost savings but still flagged above-target leverage and marketing weakness.

Positive Factors

Fee-based midstream business model

Gibson’s core earnings derive from fee-based storage, terminaling and logistics with many committed or take-or-pay style arrangements. That contract orientation reduces direct commodity exposure and supports predictable cash flows over multi-month to multi-year horizons, enhancing durability.

Consistent cash generation

The company has generated positive operating and free cash flow across recent years, with free cash flow averaging roughly 54%–74% of net income in periods. Reliable cash generation supports distributions, capital maintenance and gradual deleveraging when paired with disciplined capex.

Strong operational execution & strategic projects

Record throughput across terminals plus targeted cost-savings initiatives and completion of strategic connections (e.g., Cactus II, Baytex partnership) improve asset utilization and unit economics. These operational gains and strategic links should sustain cash flow quality over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Leverage near 3.9x increases financial risk and constrains strategic optionality if volumes or margins deteriorate. High debt servicing needs reduce flexibility to invest or weather cyclical lows; management guidance expects a return to target only in early 2026, so near-term balance sheet risk remains elevated.

Volatile revenue and thin margins

Revenue swings and structurally thin net margins make earnings and distributable cash less predictable. Mid-single-digit gross margins and narrow net returns increase sensitivity to utilization shifts and contract mix changes, limiting sustainable margin expansion absent structural revenue improvement.

Weak marketing segment contribution

A materially underperforming marketing arm reduces diversification and exposes consolidated results to commodity spread volatility. Low marketing profitability limits incremental cash flow upside and increases reliance on infrastructure fees to support distributions and deleveraging plans.

Gibson Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gibson Energy Inc., a liquids infrastructure company, engages in the gathering, storage, optimization, processing, and marketing of liquids and refined products in North America. It operates through two segments, Infrastructure and Marketing. The Infrastructure segment operates a network of infrastructure assets that include oil terminals, rail loading and unloading facilities, gathering pipelines, and a crude oil processing facility. The Marketing segment purchases, sells, stores, and optimizes hydrocarbon products, including crude oil, natural gas liquids, road asphalt, roofing flux, frac oils, light and heavy straight run distillates, vacuum gas oil, and an oil-based mud product. The company was formerly known as Gibson Energy Holdings ULC and changed its name to Gibson Energy Inc. in April 2011. Gibson Energy Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Gibson Energy generates revenue through multiple streams including its logistics and storage operations, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. The company operates a network of pipelines and storage facilities that facilitate the transportation and storage of crude oil, enabling it to charge fees for these services. Additionally, the marketing segment of Gibson Energy allows it to buy and sell crude oil, providing another revenue stream through the margins earned on these transactions. Strategic partnerships with producers and refineries, along with long-term contracts for storage and transportation services, further bolster its revenue. The company's ability to adapt to market conditions and leverage its infrastructure capabilities is crucial for sustaining its financial performance.

Gibson Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash generation is generally supportive with consistently positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, but the balance sheet is the main constraint: leverage is elevated and moved higher in 2025 as equity fell. Revenue and earnings are also uneven, with a sharp revenue decline in 2025 and structurally thin net margins.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile: strong growth in 2021–2022, flat in 2023, modestly up in 2024, then a sharp decline in 2025. Profitability is steady but thin, with gross profit and cash earnings margins generally in the mid-single-digits and net margin around ~1%–2% most years. Net income improved in 2025 versus 2024, but overall earnings have not shown a clear upward trajectory and are sensitive to revenue swings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated for the period, with debt consistently around ~2.3x–3.5x equity and equity relatively modest versus the asset base. Debt increased in 2025 while equity declined, pushing leverage higher. Returns on equity are strong in several years (mid-teens to high-30s), but that strength is partly supported by high leverage, which increases financial risk if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive, supporting an overall solid cash generation profile. However, cash conversion versus accounting earnings is mixed: free cash flow is typically about ~54%–74% of net income in recent years, and the ability of operating cash flow to cover key obligations fluctuates materially (notably weak in 2021 and better in 2022 and 2023–2025). Free cash flow growth is also volatile, including a large reported jump in 2025 following declines in 2023–2024.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.69B	11.78B	11.01B	11.04B	7.21B
Gross Profit	427.44M	423.64M	483.33M	394.44M	298.33M
EBITDA	527.05M	496.05M	494.33M	449.44M	381.24M
Net Income	197.64M	152.17M	214.21M	223.25M	145.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.63B	4.97B	4.95B	3.19B	3.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	55.85M	57.07M	143.76M	83.60M	62.69M
Total Debt	2.84B	2.65B	2.77B	1.72B	1.74B
Total Liabilities	3.81B	4.00B	4.03B	2.62B	2.79B
Stockholders Equity	821.02M	972.07M	912.47M	573.02M	644.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	207.30M	284.31M	376.89M	398.68M	44.38M
Operating Cash Flow	383.21M	459.56M	507.31M	539.06M	162.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-179.76M	-142.28M	-1.60B	-134.40M	-127.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-201.33M	-405.10M	1.14B	-386.26M	-28.20M

Gibson Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.36, above the 50-day MA of 27.59, and above the 200-day MA of 25.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GEI.

Gibson Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	77 Outperform	C$35.43B	17.93	9.91%	5.44%	2.81%	-14.92%
TPZ	70 Outperform	C$4.90B	32.90	9.77%	4.91%	6.52%	-13.92%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
KEY	61 Neutral	C$12.39B	23.33	15.39%	4.81%	-4.09%	-3.57%
GEI	58 Neutral	C$5.13B	20.80	16.47%	6.61%	-12.18%	-29.17%
TWM	43 Neutral	C$169.83M	-0.98	-33.98%	―	-23.30%	76.16%

Gibson Energy Corporate Events

Gibson Energy Posts Record Infrastructure EBITDA, Lifts Dividend and Expands Footprint With Chauvin Deal

Gibson Energy reported record Infrastructure EBITDA of $622 million in 2025, driven by strong volume growth, lower operating costs and new capital projects such as the Cactus II connection and its Duvernay infrastructure partnership with Baytex, even as consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell to $581 million amid weaker marketing results. The company increased its quarterly dividend by 5%, executed long-term contract extensions in Edmonton, and closed a $215 million equity financing.

Subsequent to quarter-end, Gibson announced a $400 million acquisition of Teine Energy’s Chauvin Infrastructure Assets, which will expand its Canadian crude footprint and is expected to be accretive to distributable cash flow per share. Together with the Wink-to-Gateway integration and approximately $100 million of planned organic growth capital in 2026, these moves support Gibson’s targeted Infrastructure EBITDA per-share growth and reinforce the stability of its infrastructure-driven cash flows, though leverage has risen with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 3.9x.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEI) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gibson Energy stock, see the TSE:GEI Stock Forecast page.

Gibson Energy Raises $215 Million to Fund Chauvin Infrastructure Acquisition

Gibson Energy has completed a bought deal equity offering of 8,160,325 common shares at $26.35 per share, raising gross proceeds of about $215 million through a syndicate of underwriters co-led by CIBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The company plans to use the net proceeds to fund part of the purchase price for Teine Energy’s Chauvin Infrastructure Assets, with the transaction expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals, underscoring Gibson’s strategy to expand its liquids infrastructure footprint.

The financing strengthens Gibson’s balance sheet flexibility as it pursues growth in core midstream infrastructure, potentially enhancing its competitive position in key Canadian and U.S. energy hubs. For stakeholders, the move signals ongoing consolidation and expansion in the liquids infrastructure space, while introducing the usual execution and regulatory risks associated with large asset acquisitions and equity-funded growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEI) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gibson Energy stock, see the TSE:GEI Stock Forecast page.

Gibson Energy to Buy $400 Million Chauvin Assets and Expand Hardisty Platform

Gibson Energy has agreed to acquire Teine Energy’s Chauvin Infrastructure Assets for $400 million in cash, adding a 75-kilometre crude oil gathering pipeline, treating facility and truck terminal that connect producing regions in eastern Alberta to the Hardisty hub. The assets, supported largely by long-term take-or-pay and fee-for-service agreements with Teine and other producers, are expected to be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow per share and to support Gibson’s goal of more than 7% annual growth in infrastructure EBITDA per share through 2030.

The company also conditionally sanctioned its Hardisty Connection Project, identified a potential expansion that could boost the Chauvin system’s effective capacity by 50% by the end of 2026, and launched a $200 million bought-deal equity financing to fully fund the transaction while keeping leverage neutral. Together, the acquisition and related projects extend Gibson’s strategic footprint from Hardisty into the Mannville Stack region, enhance the stability and visibility of cash flows, and reinforce its position as a key heavy crude midstream provider in Western Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gibson Energy stock, see the TSE:GEI Stock Forecast page.

Gibson Energy Sets Date for 2025 Year-End Results and Investor Call

Gibson Energy said it will release its 2025 fourth-quarter and year-end financial and operating results after North American markets close on February 17, 2026, with accompanying management’s discussion and analysis and audited financial statements to be posted on its website and on SEDAR+. The company will host a conference call and live webcast the following morning, February 18, 2026, to review the results, underscoring its ongoing investor-relations focus and providing analysts and shareholders with structured access to management’s assessment of performance across its North American liquids infrastructure network.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEI) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gibson Energy stock, see the TSE:GEI Stock Forecast page.

Gibson Energy Secures Long-Term Contracts and Sanctions New Infrastructure Project

Gibson Energy has announced significant contract extensions at its Edmonton Terminal, including a 20-year take-or-pay agreement for refined products services and a 10-year extension for terminal storage, highlighting the terminal’s critical role in the global energy landscape. Additionally, Gibson has sanctioned a new infrastructure project in Texas, the Wink-to-Gateway integration, as part of its 2026 growth capital guidance of $150 million, which aims to enhance infrastructure capabilities and support customer demand, reinforcing its strategic growth and financial discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEI) stock is a Hold with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gibson Energy stock, see the TSE:GEI Stock Forecast page.

Gibson Energy to Host Investor Day in December 2025

Gibson Energy announced it will host an Investor Day on December 2, 2025, in Toronto, Ontario, with a live webcast available for participants. During the event, the senior executive team will update on the company’s strategy, operations, recent developments, and long-term plans, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEI) stock is a Hold with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gibson Energy stock, see the TSE:GEI Stock Forecast page.