Gibson Energy (TSE:GEI)
TSX:GEI
Want to see TSE:GEI full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Gibson Energy
(TSX:GEI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
C$29.00
▲(6.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening cash flow and high leverage, despite a modest return to revenue growth. Earnings-call guidance and project execution (Gateway recovery, Chauvin integration/expansion, cost savings) provide a constructive medium-term outlook, while technicals are slightly weak in the near term. Valuation is supported by the high dividend yield, but the negative P/E and elevated payout ratio temper the income appeal.
Positive Factors
Hub throughput growth (Gateway)
Sustained recovery of Gateway throughput toward ~1.0M bpd increases utilization of core terminal capacity, boosting fee-based throughput revenue and spreading fixed costs. Higher, stable volumes improve long-term cash generation and strengthen Gibson’s strategic hub position in Western Canada.
Negative Factors
Weakened cash generation
Declining operating and free cash flow materially reduces financial flexibility to fund capex, acquisitions and dividends. Low cash conversion versus accounting earnings increases refinancing and payout risk, slowing the pace at which management can de-lever or invest in long-term growth without external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Hub throughput growth (Gateway)
Sustained recovery of Gateway throughput toward ~1.0M bpd increases utilization of core terminal capacity, boosting fee-based throughput revenue and spreading fixed costs. Higher, stable volumes improve long-term cash generation and strengthen Gibson’s strategic hub position in Western Canada.
Read all positive factors
Gibson Energy (GEI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.95B
Dividend Yield6.61%
Average Volume (3M)618.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.6
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth-4.83%
EPS Growth-9.94%
CountryCA
Employees460
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.89
Shares Outstanding172,500,000
10 Day Avg. Volume622,415
30 Day Avg. Volume618,093
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.72
Price to Book (P/B)5.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio19.83
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$30.50Price Target Upside11.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$9.95B
Gibson Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gibson Energy Inc., a liquids infrastructure company, engages in the gathering, storage, optimization, processing, and marketing of liquids and refined products in North America. It operates through two segments, Infrastructure and Marketing. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Gibson primarily makes money by charging fees for midstream infrastructure services, with earnings driven mainly by contracted and spot-based storage and terminaling arrangements. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Storage and terminaling ...
Gibson Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call delivered several substantive strategic and operational positives: a major Gateway milestone and clear pathway to record throughput, the accretive $400M Chauvin acquisition with near-term capacity expansion (30k → 45k bpd), modest improvement in infrastructure EBITDA and stronger balance-sheet metrics (net debt/EBITDA down to ~3.8x), a 10% headcount reduction with $10M gross annual savings targeted for 2027, and explicit reinvestment in automation and commercialization capabilities. Offsetting these positives were near-term macro headwinds that depressed Q1 export volumes and consolidated EBITDA, an ~18.7% decline in distributable cash flow, elevated G&A from upfront technology and cloud migration costs, a volatile Marketing environment driven by backwardated curves, and a temporarily high 90% dividend payout ratio (impacted by lower cash flow and equity dilution). Management conveyed confidence that many negatives are temporary and that strategic actions (acquisition integration, Wink-to-Gateway projects, cost savings, automation) will drive recovery and medium-term growth. Overall, the call tilted more positive than negative due to strong strategic execution, balance-sheet stability and clear growth projects that are expected to drive future cash flow.Positive Updates
Gateway milestone and record throughput trajectory
Safely loaded the 1 billionth barrel at Gateway; management expects to push close to 1.0 million barrels per day throughput in the back half of Q2. Recent monthly trajectory: ~800,000 bpd average in Jan–Feb, a March dip to ~600,000 bpd (freight-rate driven), and a quick recovery through April toward the 1.0 million bpd level.
Negative Updates
Q1 export disruption and volatile macro impacts
Geopolitical developments and elevated freight rates disrupted crude exports in March, reducing Gateway volumes (to ~600,000 bpd in March) and negatively impacting Infrastructure results for the quarter. Management characterizes these export pressures as temporary but they caused near-term performance headwinds.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Gateway milestone and record throughput trajectory
Safely loaded the 1 billionth barrel at Gateway; management expects to push close to 1.0 million barrels per day throughput in the back half of Q2. Recent monthly trajectory: ~800,000 bpd average in Jan–Feb, a March dip to ~600,000 bpd (freight-rate driven), and a quick recovery through April toward the 1.0 million bpd level.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a long‑term infrastructure EBITDA-per-share growth target of greater than 7% through 2030 and maintained 2026 guidance of ~5% infrastructure EBITDA-per-share growth (with consolidated EBITDA-per-share growth of 5%+), while reporting Q1 results of ~ $156M infrastructure adjusted EBITDA, ~ $3M marketing adjusted EBITDA (up $2.5M YoY) and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of ~ $139M; distributable cash flow was ~ $74M (down ~$17M YoY). Key financial metrics and guidance points: net debt/adjusted EBITDA ~3.8x (from 3.9x at year-end), infrastructure-only leverage 3.9x (below <4x target), trailing‑12‑month dividend payout ratio ~90% (infrastructure-only 83%) with a long‑term payout target of 70–80% (infrastructure-only <100%), and quarterly corporate costs expected to be ~$17–18M in 2026. Operational and capital guidance included a ~10% headcount reduction yielding ~$10M annual gross cost savings in 2027 (supporting a ~2% capital‑free upside), closing the $400M Chauvin acquisition (with projects expected to bring the acquisition multiple below 7x and Chauvin capacity expansion from 30,000 to 45,000 bpd to be sanctioned this year with benefits beginning in Q2), Gateway throughput recovering from ~800k bpd in Jan–Feb and ~600k in March toward ~1.0M bpd in late Q2, and marketing quarterly EBITDA expected to remain roughly $0–$10M given current market volatility.Gibson Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.70B | 10.69B | 11.78B | 11.01B | 11.04B | 7.21B |
| Gross Profit | 441.15M | 427.44M | 423.64M | 483.33M | 394.44M | 298.33M |
| EBITDA | 526.89M | 527.05M | 496.05M | 494.33M | 449.44M | 381.24M |
| Net Income | 146.33M | 197.64M | 152.17M | 214.21M | 223.25M | 145.05M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.07B | 4.63B | 4.97B | 4.95B | 3.19B | 3.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.97M | 55.85M | 57.07M | 143.76M | 83.60M | 62.69M |
| Total Debt | 2.77B | 2.84B | 2.65B | 2.77B | 1.72B | 1.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.09B | 3.81B | 4.00B | 4.03B | 2.62B | 2.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 982.54M | 821.02M | 972.07M | 912.47M | 573.02M | 644.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 119.25M | 207.30M | 284.31M | 376.89M | 398.68M | 44.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 286.87M | 383.21M | 459.56M | 507.31M | 539.06M | 162.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -171.47M | -179.76M | -142.28M | -1.60B | -134.40M | -127.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -42.09M | -201.33M | -405.10M | 1.14B | -386.26M | -28.20M |
Gibson Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
27.34
Price Trends
28.82
Negative
28.00
Positive
26.17
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
49.01
Neutral
34.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GEI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.87, below the 50-day MA of 28.82, and above the 200-day MA of 26.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GEI.
Gibson Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$38.25B | 22.38 | 9.98% | 5.44% | -5.92% | -12.92% | |
72 Outperform | C$4.95B | 32.66 | 10.95% | 4.91% | 4.94% | 93.71% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$12.95B | 72.84 | 6.59% | 4.81% | -11.59% | -67.03% | |
54 Neutral | C$4.95B | 32.61 | 16.60% | 6.61% | -4.83% | -9.94% | |
50 Neutral | C$363.29M | -3.36 | -54.09% | ― | -7.72% | -127.37% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
28.45
7.24
34.11%
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
64.31
15.47
31.68%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
57.19
17.26
43.23%
TSE:TWM
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure
16.65
12.65
316.25%
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
31.79
7.85
32.80%
Gibson Energy Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Gibson Energy Sets Dates for Q1 2026 Results and Hybrid Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
Gibson Energy has scheduled the release of its 2026 first quarter financial and operating results for May 4, 2026, after the close of North American markets, with related documents to be posted on its website and SEDAR+. The company will host a co...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Gibson Energy Posts Record Infrastructure EBITDA, Lifts Dividend and Expands Footprint With Chauvin Deal
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Gibson Energy reported record Infrastructure EBITDA of $622 million in 2025, driven by strong volume growth, lower operating costs and new capital projects such as the Cactus II connection and its Duvernay infrastructure partnership with Baytex, e...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Gibson Energy Raises $215 Million to Fund Chauvin Infrastructure Acquisition
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Gibson Energy has completed a bought deal equity offering of 8,160,325 common shares at $26.35 per share, raising gross proceeds of about $215 million through a syndicate of underwriters co-led by CIBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The company p...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Gibson Energy to Buy $400 Million Chauvin Assets and Expand Hardisty Platform
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
Gibson Energy has agreed to acquire Teine Energy’s Chauvin Infrastructure Assets for $400 million in cash, adding a 75-kilometre crude oil gathering pipeline, treating facility and truck terminal that connect producing regions in eastern Alb...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.