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Pembina Pipeline (TSE:PPL)
TSX:PPL
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Pembina Pipeline (PPL) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:PPL

Pembina Pipeline

(TSX:PPL)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$57.00
â–²(12.18%Upside)
Pembina Pipeline's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic corporate actions. The main strengths include robust profitability and efficient cash management, alongside a stable dividend yield. Technical analysis presents some bearish signals, indicating caution in the short term. While earnings call highlights and corporate events support a positive outlook, market volatility and project delays pose risks. The stock is fairly valued, offering balanced prospects for investors.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Strong Q4 results with a record $1,254M adjusted EBITDA, surpassing consensus estimates of $1,128M, indicate robust financial performance.
Growth Projects
PPL unveiled a suite of potential new organic-growth projects, including gas power for a data center, straddle plant, and de-ethanizer, which are not yet included in the current valuation.
Negative Factors
Project Risks
Cedar LNG is still expected to be in service in late 2028 and could face further de-risking challenges despite receiving non-binding proposals exceeding its contracted capacity.

Pembina Pipeline (PPL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Pembina Pipeline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPembina Pipeline Corporation is a leading transportation and midstream service provider based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The company operates primarily in the energy infrastructure sector, focusing on the transportation, storage, and processing of hydrocarbons. Pembina serves a diverse range of customers in the conventional and oil sands sectors, providing essential services that facilitate the movement of energy products across North America. Its core offerings include pipeline transportation systems, natural gas processing facilities, and logistics services.
How the Company Makes MoneyPembina Pipeline Corporation generates revenue through several key streams. The company earns money primarily by charging fees for the transportation of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) through its extensive network of pipelines. Additionally, Pembina operates natural gas processing facilities, where it derives income from processing fees. The company also engages in marketing and logistics services, including storage and terminal operations, which provide additional revenue. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies enhance Pembina's service offerings and market reach, contributing to its financial performance. Long-term contracts with customers provide stable and predictable cash flows, underpinning the company's earnings.

Pembina Pipeline Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.11%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Pembina demonstrated a strong start to 2025 with record adjusted EBITDA and a dividend increase, reflecting confidence in their financial outlook. They also continued to secure significant commercial agreements and successfully integrated recent acquisitions. However, challenges such as the delay in the Dow project and uncertainties surrounding the Alliance pipeline tolls, along with market volatility, temper the positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025 with Record Adjusted EBITDA
Pembina reported a first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.167 billion, marking a 12% increase over the same period in the prior year. This positions the company towards the midpoint of their 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion.
Dividend Increase Reflects Confidence
Pembina announced a $0.02 per share or 3% increase in the quarterly common share dividend, highlighting their commitment to sustainable and reliable dividend growth for shareholders.
Commercial Agreements and Expansions
Pembina entered into commercial agreements with a leading Montney producer, including long-term take-or-pay volume commitments, supporting higher utilization of Pembina’s Redwater complex and other systems.
Successful Integration and Acquisition Impact
The acquisition of Alliance Aux Sable contributed to higher ownership interests and increased contributions to pipelines and facilities, enhancing Pembina's performance.
Negative Updates
Dow Project Delay
Dow announced a delay in their path to zero project, which impacts the timeline but not the capital spending of Pembina's ethane supply agreement. The delay gives Pembina more time to execute related projects.
Uncertain Future Tolls on Alliance Pipeline
Pembina is in negotiations regarding future tolls on the Alliance pipeline, with expectations of lower future tolls on the Canadian portion, impacting profitability.
Market Volatility Impacts Guidance and Revenue
Global economic uncertainty and lower commodity prices are expected to impact marketing and new ventures division results, though the full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook remains unchanged.
Company Guidance
During Pembina Pipeline Corporation's Q1 2025 results conference call, the company provided guidance indicating that they are on track to achieve the midpoint of their adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion for the year. The company reported a strong start to the fiscal year with a quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.167 billion, representing a 12% increase over the previous year. Pembina also announced a 3% increase in their quarterly dividend, reflecting confidence in their fee-based business growth. The company highlighted significant commercial agreements, including new and extended long-term take-or-pay commitments. Additionally, Pembina is advancing construction projects and evaluating a $4 billion portfolio of potential projects, while maintaining a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.4x. The company anticipates a higher contribution from the Alliance Pipeline due to increased ownership and favorable market conditions, while also noting some impact from lower commodity prices due to global economic uncertainty.

Pembina Pipeline Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pembina Pipeline demonstrates strong financial health across all verticals. The income statement highlights profitability and operational efficiency, though with some revenue volatility. The balance sheet shows a solid financial position with manageable debt levels. Cash flow metrics reflect robust cash generation and effective cash management, supporting continued investment and operational stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The company's income statement shows strong profitability metrics with a TTM gross profit margin of 41.93% and a net profit margin of 23.73%. Both EBIT margin at 36.01% and EBITDA margin at 41.10% reflect efficient operations. Revenue growth has been volatile, with a decrease of 36.78% in 2024 from 2023 but a recovery in TTM revenue growth of 10.06% compared to the 2024 annual figure. Overall, the income statement indicates robust profitability and operational efficiency despite some fluctuations in revenue.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75, indicating a stable capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM stands at 10.97%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 49.20%, reflecting a solid equity base. The balance sheet suggests financial stability with manageable leverage, which is crucial for sustaining operations in the capital-intensive oil & gas industry.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement displays healthy cash flow management with a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.87, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow growth rate of 17.77% from 2024 to TTM demonstrates effective cash flow management. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.38 underscores efficient cash conversion mechanisms. Overall, the cash flow metrics suggest a strong ability to generate and manage cash effectively.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.38B9.13B11.61B8.63B6.20B
Gross Profit3.32B2.84B3.12B2.65B2.01B
EBITDA3.18B3.01B4.00B2.55B418.00M
Net Income1.86B1.78B2.97B1.24B-316.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets35.97B32.62B31.48B31.46B31.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments141.00M137.00M94.00M43.00M81.00M
Total Debt13.32B11.14B11.28B11.96B11.65B
Total Liabilities18.46B16.80B15.69B17.09B16.40B
Stockholders Equity17.51B15.81B15.73B14.30B14.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.26B2.03B2.32B1.99B1.22B
Operating Cash Flow3.21B2.63B2.93B2.65B2.25B
Investing Cash Flow-3.89B-789.00M-154.00M-1.04B-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow678.00M-1.80B-2.72B-1.67B-809.00M

Pembina Pipeline Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price50.81
Price Trends
50DMA
50.90
Negative
100DMA
52.14
Negative
200DMA
52.80
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Negative
RSI
48.29
Neutral
STOCH
51.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.68, below the 50-day MA of 50.90, and below the 200-day MA of 52.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PPL.

Pembina Pipeline Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$134.83B22.809.51%5.99%43.97%2.65%
78
Outperform
C$9.82B17.9919.55%4.85%8.00%52.89%
75
Outperform
$12.07B21.416.56%3.04%2.27%-9.19%
74
Outperform
$29.52B16.5611.55%5.47%-5.42%-1.70%
72
Outperform
C$4.02B24.7417.23%6.84%-5.85%-8.05%
64
Neutral
C$67.98B15.5415.89%5.37%0.72%60.40%
57
Neutral
HK$89.26B4.03-2.25%3.05%-4.44%-41.07%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
50.81
0.76
1.52%
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
65.41
15.82
31.89%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
40.26
8.79
27.93%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
24.66
3.47
16.35%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
61.84
14.61
30.94%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
42.63
5.46
14.69%

Pembina Pipeline Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline Completes Consent Solicitation for Note Exchange
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced the successful completion of its solicitation for consent and proxy from holders of its 4.80% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes, Series 1. The solicitation received strong support, allowing the company to pass an extraordinary resolution to amend the indenture and exchange the Series 1 Notes for Series 3 Notes. This move is expected to streamline Pembina’s financial operations and potentially enhance its market positioning by aligning its debt structure more effectively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pembina Pipeline Declares Quarterly Dividends and Announces Q2 2025 Results Call
Neutral
Jul 8, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced the declaration of quarterly dividends for its preferred shares across various series, with payment dates set for September and October 2025. Additionally, Pembina will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on August 8, 2025, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline Initiates Consent and Proxy Solicitation for Series 1 Notes
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has initiated a consent and proxy solicitation process for its 4.80% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes, Series 1, seeking approval for proposed amendments to the indenture governing these notes. The amendments would allow noteholders to exchange their Series 1 Notes for a new series of subordinated notes, Series 3, which have similar economic terms but differ in bankruptcy provisions. This move could impact the company’s financial structure and offer potential tax implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline Announces $200 Million Subordinated Note Offering
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced a $200 million subordinated note offering, with proceeds intended to fund the redemption of existing preferred shares and for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move aims to optimize Pembina’s capital structure and enhance its financial flexibility, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline to Redeem Series 19 Preferred Shares
Neutral
May 30, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced its intention to redeem all 8,000,000 of its issued and outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares, Series 19, on June 30, 2025, at a redemption price of $25.00 per share, totaling $200 million. This move is part of Pembina’s strategic financial management, and the final dividend for these shares will be paid on the same date, marking the end of any accrued dividends, which could impact stakeholders by altering the company’s financial structure and investor returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline Corporation Announces 2025 Shareholder Meeting Results
Positive
May 10, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced the results of its 2025 annual meeting of shareholders, where 63.54% of the company’s common shares were voted. Key outcomes included the election of 11 directors, the appointment of KPMG LLP as auditors, the continuation of the shareholder rights plan, and the approval of the company’s approach to executive compensation. These results reflect strong shareholder support for Pembina’s governance and strategic direction.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025