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Pembina Pipeline (TSE:PPL)
TSX:PPL

Pembina Pipeline (PPL) AI Stock Analysis

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Pembina Pipeline

(TSX:PPL)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$58.00
â–²(14.20%Upside)
Pembina Pipeline's overall stock score of 76 reflects robust financial performance and attractive valuation, bolstered by a strong dividend yield. The positive sentiment from the earnings call further enhances the outlook. However, technical indicators suggest a cautious near-term trading environment, and some corporate challenges temper the upside potential.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Strong Q4/24 results with a record $1,254M adjusted EBITDA, well above consensus $1,128M.
Financial Performance
PPL shares are rated Outperform given positive free cash flow position and strong balance sheet.
Growth Projects
PPL unveiled a suite of potential new organic-growth projects, including gas power for a data center, straddle plant, and de-ethanizer.
Negative Factors
Project Timeline
Cedar LNG is still expected in-service late 2028, and could be further de-risked with PPL recently in receipt of non-binding proposals covering well in excess of its contracted capacity.

Pembina Pipeline (PPL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Pembina Pipeline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPembina Pipeline Corporation is a leading transportation and midstream service provider in North America. The company operates primarily in the oil and gas sector, offering a range of services including the transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Pembina provides essential infrastructure that connects energy production to the market, ensuring the efficient and reliable delivery of resources. With a network of pipelines spanning the continent, Pembina is integral to the energy supply chain.
How the Company Makes MoneyPembina Pipeline Corporation generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from its fee-based transportation services, where the company charges customers for the volume of oil and natural gas transported through its extensive pipeline network. Additionally, Pembina earns money from its midstream services, which include processing, fractionation, and storage of natural gas liquids and other hydrocarbons. The company also derives revenue from its marketing and new ventures segment, where it buys, sells, and markets natural gas liquids and crude oil. Significant partnerships with energy producers and long-term contracts enhance revenue stability and predictability, contributing to the overall financial performance of the company.

Pembina Pipeline Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.14%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Pembina demonstrated a strong start to 2025 with record adjusted EBITDA and a dividend increase, reflecting confidence in their financial outlook. They also continued to secure significant commercial agreements and successfully integrated recent acquisitions. However, challenges such as the delay in the Dow project and uncertainties surrounding the Alliance pipeline tolls, along with market volatility, temper the positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025 with Record Adjusted EBITDA
Pembina reported a first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.167 billion, marking a 12% increase over the same period in the prior year. This positions the company towards the midpoint of their 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion.
Dividend Increase Reflects Confidence
Pembina announced a $0.02 per share or 3% increase in the quarterly common share dividend, highlighting their commitment to sustainable and reliable dividend growth for shareholders.
Commercial Agreements and Expansions
Pembina entered into commercial agreements with a leading Montney producer, including long-term take-or-pay volume commitments, supporting higher utilization of Pembina’s Redwater complex and other systems.
Successful Integration and Acquisition Impact
The acquisition of Alliance Aux Sable contributed to higher ownership interests and increased contributions to pipelines and facilities, enhancing Pembina's performance.
Negative Updates
Dow Project Delay
Dow announced a delay in their path to zero project, which impacts the timeline but not the capital spending of Pembina's ethane supply agreement. The delay gives Pembina more time to execute related projects.
Uncertain Future Tolls on Alliance Pipeline
Pembina is in negotiations regarding future tolls on the Alliance pipeline, with expectations of lower future tolls on the Canadian portion, impacting profitability.
Market Volatility Impacts Guidance and Revenue
Global economic uncertainty and lower commodity prices are expected to impact marketing and new ventures division results, though the full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook remains unchanged.
Company Guidance
During Pembina Pipeline Corporation's Q1 2025 results conference call, the company provided guidance indicating that they are on track to achieve the midpoint of their adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion for the year. The company reported a strong start to the fiscal year with a quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.167 billion, representing a 12% increase over the previous year. Pembina also announced a 3% increase in their quarterly dividend, reflecting confidence in their fee-based business growth. The company highlighted significant commercial agreements, including new and extended long-term take-or-pay commitments. Additionally, Pembina is advancing construction projects and evaluating a $4 billion portfolio of potential projects, while maintaining a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.4x. The company anticipates a higher contribution from the Alliance Pipeline due to increased ownership and favorable market conditions, while also noting some impact from lower commodity prices due to global economic uncertainty.

Pembina Pipeline Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pembina Pipeline demonstrates strong financial health across all verticals. The income statement highlights profitability and operational efficiency, with strong margins and cash flow metrics. The balance sheet shows a solid financial position with manageable debt levels.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The company's income statement shows strong profitability metrics with a TTM gross profit margin of 41.93% and a net profit margin of 23.73%. Both EBIT margin at 36.01% and EBITDA margin at 41.10% reflect efficient operations. Revenue growth has been volatile, with a decrease of 36.78% in 2024 from 2023 but a recovery in TTM revenue growth of 10.06% compared to the 2024 annual figure. Overall, the income statement indicates robust profitability and operational efficiency despite some fluctuations in revenue.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75, indicating a stable capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM stands at 10.97%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 49.20%, reflecting a solid equity base. The balance sheet suggests financial stability with manageable leverage, which is crucial for sustaining operations in the capital-intensive oil & gas industry.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement displays healthy cash flow management with a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.87, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow growth rate of 17.77% from 2024 to TTM demonstrates effective cash flow management. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.38 underscores efficient cash conversion mechanisms. Overall, the cash flow metrics suggest a strong ability to generate and manage cash effectively.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.13B7.38B9.13B11.61B8.63B6.20B
Gross Profit3.41B3.32B2.84B3.12B2.65B2.01B
EBITDA3.34B3.18B3.01B4.00B2.55B418.00M
Net Income1.93B1.86B1.78B2.97B1.24B-316.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets35.71B35.97B32.62B31.48B31.46B31.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments155.00M141.00M137.00M94.00M43.00M81.00M
Total Debt13.14B13.32B11.14B11.28B11.96B11.65B
Total Liabilities18.14B18.46B16.80B15.69B17.09B16.40B
Stockholders Equity17.57B17.51B15.81B15.73B14.30B14.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.66B2.26B2.03B2.32B1.99B1.22B
Operating Cash Flow3.60B3.21B2.63B2.93B2.65B2.25B
Investing Cash Flow-3.71B-3.89B-789.00M-154.00M-1.04B-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow-1.47B678.00M-1.80B-2.72B-1.67B-809.00M

Pembina Pipeline Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price50.79
Price Trends
50DMA
51.52
Negative
100DMA
52.23
Negative
200DMA
53.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Negative
RSI
47.44
Neutral
STOCH
45.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.94, below the 50-day MA of 51.52, and below the 200-day MA of 53.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PPL.

Pembina Pipeline Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSPPL
76
Outperform
$29.70B16.6711.55%5.59%-5.42%-1.70%
TSKEY
76
Outperform
C$10.00B18.3119.55%4.77%8.00%52.89%
TSENB
75
Outperform
$134.63B22.779.51%6.20%43.97%2.65%
TSGEI
73
Outperform
$3.91B24.0917.23%7.24%-5.85%-8.05%
TSTRP
68
Neutral
$69.09B15.8015.89%5.21%0.72%60.40%
TSALA
67
Neutral
$11.83B20.976.56%3.19%2.27%-9.19%
52
Neutral
C$2.91B-0.93-3.26%6.13%2.20%-43.43%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
50.79
1.99
4.08%
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
65.19
20.08
44.52%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
38.95
8.93
29.74%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
23.75
2.23
10.36%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
60.85
14.85
32.27%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
43.64
7.62
21.15%

Pembina Pipeline Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline Initiates Consent and Proxy Solicitation for Series 1 Notes
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has initiated a consent and proxy solicitation process for its 4.80% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes, Series 1, seeking approval for proposed amendments to the indenture governing these notes. The amendments would allow noteholders to exchange their Series 1 Notes for a new series of subordinated notes, Series 3, which have similar economic terms but differ in bankruptcy provisions. This move could impact the company’s financial structure and offer potential tax implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline Announces $200 Million Subordinated Note Offering
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced a $200 million subordinated note offering, with proceeds intended to fund the redemption of existing preferred shares and for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move aims to optimize Pembina’s capital structure and enhance its financial flexibility, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline to Redeem Series 19 Preferred Shares
Neutral
May 30, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced its intention to redeem all 8,000,000 of its issued and outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares, Series 19, on June 30, 2025, at a redemption price of $25.00 per share, totaling $200 million. This move is part of Pembina’s strategic financial management, and the final dividend for these shares will be paid on the same date, marking the end of any accrued dividends, which could impact stakeholders by altering the company’s financial structure and investor returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pembina Pipeline Corporation Announces 2025 Shareholder Meeting Results
Positive
May 10, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced the results of its 2025 annual meeting of shareholders, where 63.54% of the company’s common shares were voted. Key outcomes included the election of 11 directors, the appointment of KPMG LLP as auditors, the continuation of the shareholder rights plan, and the approval of the company’s approach to executive compensation. These results reflect strong shareholder support for Pembina’s governance and strategic direction.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pembina Pipeline Declares Dividends and Announces Q1 2025 Results Call
Positive
Apr 8, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has declared quarterly dividends for its preferred shares, with specific payment dates set for various series. This announcement underscores Pembina’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders. Additionally, Pembina will release its first quarter 2025 results on May 8, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on May 9, 2025, to discuss the results with investors and stakeholders, highlighting the company’s transparency and engagement with its financial community.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 29, 2025