Pembina Pipeline Corp. (TSE:PPL)
NYSE:PPL
Want to see TSE:PPL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Pembina Pipeline
(NYSE:PPL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$70.00
â–²(20.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality (strong profitability and cash generation, with moderate leverage) and supportive earnings-call guidance/strategy, partially offset by near-term free-cash-flow pressure and a temporary leverage peak in 2026. Technicals are positive (price above major moving averages) and valuation is supported by a strong dividend yield, with the P/E suggesting reasonable—not deeply discounted—pricing.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and profitability
Pembina’s operating cash flow consistently covers reported earnings and capital needs, with Q4 CFOA of $731m and FY adjusted CFOA of $2.854bn. This durable cash generation underpins dividend capacity, funds recurring capex, and supports disciplined financing of growth projects without continual equity issuance.
Negative Factors
Softening revenue and free-cash-flow momentum
Declining revenue and a materially lower trailing‑12‑month free cash flow versus the prior year reduce internal funding capacity and raise reliance on external financing for peak investment years. Sustained softness would pressure discretionary investments, cushion for volatility, and dividend sustainability if persistent.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and profitability
Pembina’s operating cash flow consistently covers reported earnings and capital needs, with Q4 CFOA of $731m and FY adjusted CFOA of $2.854bn. This durable cash generation underpins dividend capacity, funds recurring capex, and supports disciplined financing of growth projects without continual equity issuance.
Read all positive factors
Pembina Pipeline (PPL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$38.25B
Dividend Yield5.44%
Average Volume (3M)1.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.4
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth-5.92%
EPS Growth-12.92%
CountryCA
Employees2,997
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.66
Shares Outstanding581,231,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,401,112
30 Day Avg. Volume1,944,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.81
Price to Sales (P/S)3.95
P/FCF Ratio12.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$69.02Price Target Upside18.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)3.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$8.33B
Pembina Pipeline Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides transportation and midstream services for the energy industry. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands an...
How the Company Makes Money
Pembina primarily makes money by charging customers fees under contracts for transporting, processing, storing, and handling hydrocarbons across its midstream and pipeline infrastructure. A major revenue stream is pipeline tolls/transportation fee...
Pembina Pipeline Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and strategic wins — record annual volumes, large recontracting achievements (200,000 bpd), sanctioned and on-schedule projects (RFS IV, Wapiti, K3), export and LNG progress (50,000 bpd propane export access, Cedar LNG remarketing), and a clear 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range with a mid-point implying ~5% CAGR. Offsetting these positives were near-term financial pressures: Q4 adjusted EBITDA and earnings declines (-14% and -15% YoY), marketing headwinds (notably narrower NGL frac spreads and U.S. gas-driven volatility), higher operating and incentive costs, and a temporary peak in leverage in 2026 due to Cedar LNG capex. Overall, highlights and ongoing growth initiatives materially outweigh the near-term headwinds, which management expects to be transient and manageable.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financials
Q4 earnings of $489 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.075 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $731 million ($1.26/share) in Q4. Full-year earnings of $1.694 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share) and cash flow from operating activities of $3.301 billion ($5.68/share).
Negative Updates
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA and Earnings Declines
Q4 adjusted EBITDA decreased $179 million (approx. -14% year-over-year) and Q4 earnings declined ~15% year-over-year to $489 million. Declines were primarily driven by weaker Marketing & New Ventures and toll/revenue-sharing changes on Alliance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financials
Q4 earnings of $489 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.075 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $731 million ($1.26/share) in Q4. Full-year earnings of $1.694 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share) and cash flow from operating activities of $3.301 billion ($5.68/share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Pembina guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion (the midpoint implies ~5% fee‑based adjusted EBITDA per‑share CAGR from 2023–2026) and said 2026 will be the peak investment year for Cedar LNG; Cedar is expected in service in late‑2028. Management expects year‑end proportionately consolidated debt/adjusted EBITDA of roughly 3.7–4.0x in 2026 (3.4–3.7x excluding Cedar LNG construction debt) and expects leverage to trend back toward the lower end of its 3.5–4.25x target range as projects enter service; it also noted a modest free‑cash‑flow deficit in 2026 with meaningful free cash flow projected in 2027 and beyond. For context, 2025 results included adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion, earnings of $1.694 billion, Q4 adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.075 billion and Q4 earnings of $489 million, Q4 adjusted cash flow from operations of $731 million ($1.26/share) and full‑year adjusted CFOA of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share); management said it can historically fund roughly ~$1.5 billion of annual investment from cash flow after dividends.Pembina Pipeline Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.61B | 7.68B | 7.38B | 6.33B | 11.61B | 8.63B |
| Gross Profit | 2.90B | 2.81B | 2.99B | 2.52B | 2.73B | 2.49B |
| EBITDA | 3.41B | 3.40B | 3.37B | 2.71B | 2.85B | 2.61B |
| Net Income | 1.69B | 1.69B | 1.86B | 1.78B | 2.97B | 1.24B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.17B | 35.55B | 35.97B | 32.62B | 31.48B | 31.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 173.00M | 106.00M | 141.00M | 137.00M | 94.00M | 43.00M |
| Total Debt | 13.92B | 13.85B | 13.32B | 11.14B | 11.28B | 11.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.27B | 18.78B | 18.46B | 16.80B | 15.69B | 17.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.90B | 16.77B | 17.51B | 15.81B | 15.73B | 14.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.97B | 2.49B | 2.23B | 2.01B | 2.30B | 1.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.77B | 3.27B | 3.19B | 2.62B | 2.91B | 2.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.30B | -1.06B | -3.89B | -774.00M | -133.00M | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.45B | -2.24B | 678.00M | -1.80B | -2.72B | -1.67B |
Pembina Pipeline Technical Analysis
Positive
58.17
Price Trends
62.55
Positive
59.69
Positive
55.87
Positive
Market Momentum
1.47
Positive
53.39
Neutral
24.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.08, below the 50-day MA of 62.55, and above the 200-day MA of 55.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PPL.
Pembina Pipeline Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$38.25B | 22.38 | 9.98% | 5.44% | -5.92% | -12.92% | |
71 Outperform | C$98.18B | 28.20 | 12.53% | 4.41% | 1.37% | -24.17% | |
69 Neutral | C$169.76B | 22.09 | 11.41% | 5.80% | 13.47% | 9.15% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$16.79B | 32.37 | 5.92% | 2.99% | 1.11% | -13.38% | |
64 Neutral | C$13.05B | 71.91 | 6.59% | 4.81% | -11.59% | -67.03% | |
54 Neutral | C$4.99B | 32.91 | 16.60% | 6.61% | -4.83% | -9.94% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
65.11
16.27
33.32%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
76.58
16.08
26.59%
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
93.19
26.74
40.24%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
28.71
7.50
35.34%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
54.17
16.97
45.62%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
56.46
16.53
41.40%
Pembina Pipeline Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pembina Maps 3Cs Growth Strategy With 2030 EBITDA Target
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
Pembina outlined a long-term growth strategy built around its 3Cs framework – Capture, Connect, and Catalyze – aimed at expanding core pipeline, gas processing, and fractionation capacity, enhancing market access for Canadian hydrocarb...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pembina Pipeline Declares Preferred Share Dividends and Sets Investor Webcasts
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Pembina Pipeline Corporation has declared quarterly cash dividends on eight series of its preferred shares, maintaining its regular dividend schedule with specified payment and record dates across Series 1, 3, 5, 7, 15, 17, 21, and 25, reinforcing...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.