Pembina Pipeline (TSE:PPL)
TSX:PPL
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Pembina Pipeline
(TSX:PPL)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$71.00
â–²(12.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong margins and steady free-cash-flow generation, supported by constructive guidance and visible project execution/recontracting progress. Offsetting factors are a near-term leverage/FCF pressure period tied to peak 2026 investment and technically stretched momentum that raises pullback risk, while valuation is reasonable with an attractive yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash flow / self-funding
Management’s stated ability to self-fund roughly $1.5 billion annually, combined with steady operating cash generation, provides durable internal capital for sanctioned growth, dividend coverage and debt service. This reduces dependence on external financing and supports long-term capital allocation flexibility.
Negative Factors
Peak 2026 leverage and FCF shortfall
A planned peak in Cedar LNG spending raises proportionate leverage and produces a near‑term free cash flow deficit. Elevated debt ratios and lower FCF during the multi‑year construction window constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing and covenant risk, and compress optionality until projects begin producing cash.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash flow / self-funding
Management’s stated ability to self-fund roughly $1.5 billion annually, combined with steady operating cash generation, provides durable internal capital for sanctioned growth, dividend coverage and debt service. This reduces dependence on external financing and supports long-term capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Pembina Pipeline (PPL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$36.65B
Dividend Yield5.44%
Average Volume (3M)2.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.9
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth2.81%
EPS Growth-14.92%
CountryCA
Employees2,997
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding581,231,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,578,901
30 Day Avg. Volume2,978,613
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.81
Price to Sales (P/S)3.95
P/FCF Ratio12.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$60.62Price Target Upside-3.85% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$7.57B
Pembina Pipeline Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides transportation and midstream services for the energy industry. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands an...
How the Company Makes Money
Pembina primarily makes money by charging customers fees under contracts for transporting, processing, storing, and handling hydrocarbons across its midstream and pipeline infrastructure. A major revenue stream is pipeline tolls/transportation fee...
Pembina Pipeline Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and strategic wins — record annual volumes, large recontracting achievements (200,000 bpd), sanctioned and on-schedule projects (RFS IV, Wapiti, K3), export and LNG progress (50,000 bpd propane export access, Cedar LNG remarketing), and a clear 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range with a mid-point implying ~5% CAGR. Offsetting these positives were near-term financial pressures: Q4 adjusted EBITDA and earnings declines (-14% and -15% YoY), marketing headwinds (notably narrower NGL frac spreads and U.S. gas-driven volatility), higher operating and incentive costs, and a temporary peak in leverage in 2026 due to Cedar LNG capex. Overall, highlights and ongoing growth initiatives materially outweigh the near-term headwinds, which management expects to be transient and manageable.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financials
Q4 earnings of $489 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.075 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $731 million ($1.26/share) in Q4. Full-year earnings of $1.694 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share) and cash flow from operating activities of $3.301 billion ($5.68/share).
Negative Updates
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA and Earnings Declines
Q4 adjusted EBITDA decreased $179 million (approx. -14% year-over-year) and Q4 earnings declined ~15% year-over-year to $489 million. Declines were primarily driven by weaker Marketing & New Ventures and toll/revenue-sharing changes on Alliance.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financials
Q4 earnings of $489 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.075 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $731 million ($1.26/share) in Q4. Full-year earnings of $1.694 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share) and cash flow from operating activities of $3.301 billion ($5.68/share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Pembina guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion (the midpoint implies ~5% fee‑based adjusted EBITDA per‑share CAGR from 2023–2026) and said 2026 will be the peak investment year for Cedar LNG; Cedar is expected in service in late‑2028. Management expects year‑end proportionately consolidated debt/adjusted EBITDA of roughly 3.7–4.0x in 2026 (3.4–3.7x excluding Cedar LNG construction debt) and expects leverage to trend back toward the lower end of its 3.5–4.25x target range as projects enter service; it also noted a modest free‑cash‑flow deficit in 2026 with meaningful free cash flow projected in 2027 and beyond. For context, 2025 results included adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion, earnings of $1.694 billion, Q4 adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.075 billion and Q4 earnings of $489 million, Q4 adjusted cash flow from operations of $731 million ($1.26/share) and full‑year adjusted CFOA of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share); management said it can historically fund roughly ~$1.5 billion of annual investment from cash flow after dividends.Pembina Pipeline Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.68B | 7.38B | 6.33B | 11.61B | 8.63B |
| Gross Profit | 2.81B | 2.99B | 2.52B | 2.73B | 2.49B |
| EBITDA | 3.40B | 3.37B | 2.71B | 2.85B | 2.61B |
| Net Income | 1.69B | 1.86B | 1.78B | 2.97B | 1.24B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 35.55B | 35.97B | 32.62B | 31.48B | 31.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 106.00M | 141.00M | 137.00M | 94.00M | 43.00M |
| Total Debt | 13.85B | 13.32B | 11.14B | 11.28B | 11.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.78B | 18.46B | 16.80B | 15.69B | 17.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.77B | 17.51B | 15.81B | 15.73B | 14.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.49B | 2.23B | 2.01B | 2.30B | 1.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.27B | 3.19B | 2.62B | 2.91B | 2.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -3.89B | -774.00M | -133.00M | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.24B | 678.00M | -1.80B | -2.72B | -1.67B |
Pembina Pipeline Technical Analysis
Positive
63.05
Price Trends
58.14
Positive
55.03
Positive
52.83
Positive
Market Momentum
1.12
Negative
75.89
Negative
84.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.56, above the 50-day MA of 58.14, and above the 200-day MA of 52.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.89 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PPL.
Pembina Pipeline Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$36.65B | 17.93 | 9.91% | 5.44% | 2.81% | -14.92% | |
75 Outperform | C$164.27B | 17.39 | 12.34% | 5.80% | 33.06% | -12.36% | |
69 Neutral | C$92.42B | 22.34 | 12.80% | 4.41% | -3.98% | -33.45% | |
67 Neutral | C$14.91B | 16.39 | 9.01% | 2.99% | -0.68% | 49.61% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$5.17B | 20.80 | 16.47% | 6.61% | -12.18% | -29.17% | |
61 Neutral | C$12.48B | 23.33 | 15.39% | 4.81% | -4.09% | -3.57% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
63.05
8.85
16.32%
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Pembina Pipeline Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pembina Pipeline Declares Preferred Share Dividends and Sets Investor Webcasts
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Pembina Pipeline Corporation has declared quarterly cash dividends on eight series of its preferred shares, maintaining its regular dividend schedule with specified payment and record dates across Series 1, 3, 5, 7, 15, 17, 21, and 25, reinforcing...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pembina Pipeline Declares Preferred Share Dividends and Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results Call
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
Pembina Pipeline Corporation has declared its regular quarterly dividends on eight series of preferred shares—Series 1, 3, 5, 7, 15, 17, 21 and 25—setting specific per-share amounts and confirming the record and payment dates in line w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.