Pembina Pipeline (TSE:PPL)
TSX:PPL
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Pembina Pipeline (PPL) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:PPL

Pembina Pipeline

(TSX:PPL)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$58.00
â–²(9.41% Upside)
Pembina Pipeline's overall stock score reflects solid profitability and strategic initiatives that support long-term growth, despite challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow. The technical analysis suggests a neutral outlook, while the valuation is fair with an attractive dividend yield. The earnings call provided positive guidance and strategic wins, though financial challenges remain.
Positive Factors
Long-term Contract with PETRONAS
This long-term contract enhances Pembina's revenue stability and growth prospects by securing a steady demand for its liquefaction capacity, supporting its export business.
Greenlight Electricity Center Progress
Progress on the Greenlight project signifies strategic diversification into electricity, potentially reducing reliance on traditional hydrocarbon markets and enhancing long-term growth.
Strong Profit Margins
High profit margins indicate efficient cost management and operational effectiveness, providing a buffer against market volatility and supporting sustainable financial health.
Negative Factors
Decline in Revenue Growth
Slowing revenue growth can hinder Pembina's ability to expand and invest in new projects, potentially impacting its competitive position and market share over time.
Decreased Earnings
A significant drop in earnings reflects operational challenges and cost pressures, which could affect Pembina's ability to fund future growth initiatives and maintain investor confidence.
Declining Free Cash Flow Growth
Reduced free cash flow growth limits Pembina's financial flexibility, potentially constraining its ability to invest in strategic projects and manage debt effectively.

Pembina Pipeline (PPL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Pembina Pipeline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPembina Pipeline Corporation is a leading North American provider of integrated infrastructure solutions for the energy sector. The company operates through various segments, including pipeline transportation, facilities, and marketing services, primarily focusing on the transportation and processing of hydrocarbons. Pembina's core products and services encompass crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids transportation, as well as the operation of processing and fractionation facilities, providing a comprehensive suite of services to its customers in the oil and gas industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyPembina Pipeline generates revenue primarily through its pipeline transportation and processing services. The company charges fees for the transportation of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through its extensive network of pipelines, which includes long-term contracts that provide stable cash flows. Additionally, Pembina earns revenue from its facilities segment, which involves the operation of processing and fractionation plants that extract valuable components from natural gas and liquids. Other significant revenue streams include marketing services, where Pembina acts as an intermediary in the sale of hydrocarbons, and fee-based contracts that help mitigate exposure to commodity price fluctuations. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, further contributing to its earnings stability and growth potential.

Pembina Pipeline Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted strong operational performance and strategic contract wins, including a deal with PETRONAS and progress on the Greenlight project. However, there were concerns about decreased earnings, marketing business challenges, and commodity price pressures. Overall, Pembina's achievements and strategic initiatives were significant, yet there were notable financial challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA
Pembina reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.034 billion, a 1% increase over the same period in the prior year.
Updated 2025 Guidance
Pembina has updated and narrowed its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $4.25 billion to $4.35 billion.
Long-term Contract with PETRONAS
Pembina signed a 20-year agreement with PETRONAS for 1 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG facility.
Greenlight Electricity Center Progress
Pembina secured a 907-megawatt power grid allocation and signed an agreement with a reputable equipment manufacturer for turbines to support the first phase of Greenlight.
Pipeline and Facilities Volume Growth
Total volumes in the Pipelines and Facilities divisions were 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, a 2% increase over the same period in the prior year.
Successful Contract Renewals
Pembina recontracted volumes totaling approximately 50,000 barrels per day on the Peace Pipeline system with a weighted average term of approximately 10 years.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Earnings
Third quarter earnings were $286 million, a 26% decrease over the same period in the prior year, due to factors such as higher depreciation and amortization and a share of loss in PGI.
Marketing Business Weakness
The marketing business faced lower net revenue due to a decrease in NGL margins as a result of lower NGL prices and higher input natural gas prices.
Commodity Price Pressures
Lower propane prices and a strengthening AECO price are putting pressure on frac spreads, impacting Pembina's outlook for Q4.
Company Guidance
During Pembina Pipeline Corporation's Q3 2025 results conference call, the company provided updated guidance for the fiscal year, narrowing its adjusted EBITDA range to $4.25 billion to $4.35 billion. The call highlighted several key developments, including a 20-year agreement with PETRONAS for 1 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG facility, supporting Pembina's export business growth. The company is also advancing the Greenlight Electricity Center with partner Kineticor, securing a 907-megawatt power grid allocation for the project, which is expected to start up in 2030. Pembina's pipeline and facilities divisions reported total volumes of 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3, a 2% increase from the previous year. Despite some weakness in the marketing business, Pembina remains confident in delivering solid financial performance, with plans to release its 2026 outlook and capital budget in mid-December.

Pembina Pipeline Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pembina Pipeline shows solid profitability and a stable balance sheet, but faces challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow generation. The company maintains efficient operations and a balanced capital structure, yet the recent decline in revenue and free cash flow growth could impact future financial flexibility.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Pembina Pipeline's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data reveals a decline in revenue growth rate, indicating challenges in maintaining top-line growth. However, the company maintains strong profitability with a net profit margin of 23.72% and an EBIT margin of 36.90%, suggesting efficient cost management. The gross profit margin has slightly decreased compared to previous periods, which may indicate rising costs or pricing pressures.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is healthy at 11.12%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 48.10%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the company's total debt has increased slightly, which could pose a risk if not managed properly.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, which is a concern for future liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.63, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests that a significant portion of earnings is being converted into free cash flow, although the recent decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.06B7.38B6.33B11.61B8.63B5.95B
Gross Profit3.26B2.99B2.52B2.73B2.49B2.07B
EBITDA3.67B3.37B2.71B2.85B2.61B2.44B
Net Income1.87B1.86B1.78B2.97B1.24B-316.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets35.42B35.97B32.62B31.48B31.46B31.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments210.00M141.00M137.00M94.00M43.00M81.00M
Total Debt13.38B13.32B11.14B11.28B11.96B11.65B
Total Liabilities18.39B18.46B16.80B15.69B17.09B16.40B
Stockholders Equity17.04B17.51B15.81B15.73B14.30B14.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.56B2.23B2.01B2.30B1.97B1.18B
Operating Cash Flow3.43B3.19B2.62B2.91B2.63B2.21B
Investing Cash Flow-1.13B-3.89B-774.00M-133.00M-1.01B-1.44B
Financing Cash Flow-2.35B678.00M-1.80B-2.72B-1.67B-809.00M

Pembina Pipeline Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price53.01
Price Trends
50DMA
54.09
Negative
100DMA
52.17
Positive
200DMA
51.86
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.32
Negative
RSI
47.07
Neutral
STOCH
67.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PPL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 53.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.02, below the 50-day MA of 54.09, and above the 200-day MA of 51.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:PPL.

Pembina Pipeline Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$76.72B23.5212.96%4.42%-3.98%-33.45%
72
Outperform
C$9.28B17.4918.92%5.02%1.57%55.82%
69
Neutral
C$148.87B26.638.98%5.52%33.06%-12.36%
67
Neutral
$31.00B19.0210.22%5.28%2.81%-14.92%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
63
Neutral
C$12.81B17.159.01%2.92%-0.68%49.61%
59
Neutral
$3.90B25.8416.47%7.27%-12.18%-29.17%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
53.01
-2.77
-4.97%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
67.76
10.66
18.67%
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
76.37
11.01
16.84%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
23.38
1.81
8.38%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
42.55
10.00
30.71%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
41.80
-0.57
-1.35%

Pembina Pipeline Corporate Events

Pembina Pipeline Corp. Reports Q3 2025 Earnings
Nov 8, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation is a leading energy transportation and midstream service provider in North America, specializing in hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas pipelines, gas gathering and processing facilities, and export terminals. In the third quarter of 2025, Pembina Pipeline Corp. reported a decrease in earnings compared to the previous year, with significant impacts from various segments. The company’s revenue decreased to $1,791 million from $1,844 million, while net revenue also saw a decline. Despite these challenges, Pembina’s adjusted EBITDA increased slightly, reflecting higher net revenue from certain pipeline assets. Key factors affecting the quarter included gains from the sale of the North segment of the Western Pipeline, higher seasonal contract demand on the Alliance Pipeline, and increased volumes on the Peace Pipeline system. However, these were offset by lower net revenue in the Marketing & New Ventures Division due to decreased gains on derivatives and lower NGL margins. Looking forward, Pembina remains focused on its strategic priorities, including sustaining and decarbonizing its businesses, investing in energy transition, and creating a differentiated experience for stakeholders.

Pembina Pipeline Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 6, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation released its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a decrease in revenue and gross profit compared to the same period in 2024. Despite these declines, the company reported an increase in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting improved operational efficiency. Pembina remains committed to its strategic priorities, including investing in energy transition and enhancing its business resilience, which are crucial for meeting global energy demand and ensuring long-term success.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Reports Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Updates
Nov 6, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation reported its financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting earnings of $286 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1,034 million. The company has updated its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance and signed new transportation agreements on the Peace Pipeline. Additionally, Pembina is advancing over $1 billion in proposed pipeline expansions and has strengthened the Alliance Pipeline’s contractual profile. The company is also progressing on the Cedar LNG project and the Greenlight Electricity Centre, with significant developments expected in the coming months.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina and PETRONAS Sign 20-Year Cedar LNG Agreement
Nov 5, 2025

On November 5, 2025, Pembina Pipeline Corporation and PETRONAS announced a 20-year agreement for 1.0 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG facility. This agreement provides PETRONAS with an additional natural gas export outlet and offers Pembina a stable long-term revenue stream. It underscores the companies’ commitment to Canadian LNG, supporting energy security and cleaner fuel transition in Asia. The Cedar LNG project, a partnership with the Haisla Nation, remains on schedule and budget, with an expected in-service date in late 2028.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Updates Code of Ethics Policy to Strengthen Integrity
Nov 4, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has released its updated Code of Ethics Policy, emphasizing the importance of integrity and ethical behavior among its personnel. The policy outlines expectations for officers, employees, and directors to maintain the company’s reputation by avoiding conflicts of interest, acting with integrity, and complying with legal and regulatory standards. This policy aims to uphold Pembina’s standing in the community and ensure consistent ethical conduct across its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pembina Pipeline Completes $225 Million Note Offering and Plans Redemption of Preferred Shares
Positive
Oct 10, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has successfully closed a $225 million offering of 5.95% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes, Series 2, due in 2055. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem all outstanding Series 9 Class A Preferred Shares on December 1, 2025, at a redemption price of $25.00 per share. This strategic financial move is expected to optimize Pembina’s capital structure and support its general corporate purposes. The redemption process has been communicated to shareholders, ensuring a smooth transition and maintaining investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Sell with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pembina Pipeline Announces $225 Million Subordinated Note Offering
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced a $225 million issuance of 5.95% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes, Series 2, due in 2055. This issuance follows a previous $200 million issuance of the same series, bringing the total to $425 million. The proceeds will be used to redeem outstanding preferred shares and for general corporate purposes. This move is expected to optimize Pembina’s capital structure and support its financial strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and providing benefits to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Sell with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pembina Pipeline Declares Dividends and Announces Q3 2025 Results Call
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has announced the declaration of quarterly dividends for its preferred shares across several series, with payment dates set for December 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders. Additionally, Pembina will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on November 7, 2025, to discuss the results with investors and stakeholders. These announcements are part of Pembina’s efforts to maintain transparency and engagement with its investors, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Sell with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pembina Pipeline Considers Subordinated Note Offering
Neutral
Oct 8, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced its consideration of a subordinated note offering under its short form base shelf prospectus. If successful, the proceeds will be used to redeem outstanding preferred shares and for general corporate purposes. The announcement reflects Pembina’s strategic financial management and could impact its capital structure and shareholder value, although there is no certainty regarding the completion or terms of the offering.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Sell with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Advances Greenlight Electricity Centre Project
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Pembina Pipeline Corporation, in partnership with Kineticor, provided updates on the Greenlight Electricity Centre project in Alberta. The project, a gas-fired power generation facility with a capacity of up to 1,800 MW, aims to support Alberta’s innovation economy by providing reliable and scalable power solutions. Recent milestones include securing a 907 MW allocation from the Alberta Electric System Operator, a land purchase agreement, and a major equipment reservation. The project is expected to begin operations as early as 2027, with a final investment decision anticipated in the first half of 2026. This development is set to enhance Pembina’s growth by integrating with its existing assets and expanding its natural gas value chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pembina Pipeline Secures Regulatory Approval for Alliance Pipeline Settlement
Positive
Sep 16, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced that the Canada Energy Regulator has approved a negotiated settlement for the Canadian portion of the Alliance Pipeline. This approval establishes a tolling structure for the next decade, enhancing Pembina’s ability to deliver exceptional service and maximize the value of its North American energy infrastructure. The settlement is expected to positively impact Pembina’s operations and strengthen its industry positioning, benefiting stakeholders by ensuring a stable and predictable framework for the pipeline’s operation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Corp. Earnings Call Insights
Aug 12, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corp.’s recent earnings call reflected a balanced sentiment, highlighting positive strides in project execution and export capability expansions, while also acknowledging challenges in decreased earnings and the marketing segment. Despite competitive threats, management remains confident in their strategic positioning.

Pembina Pipeline Reports Q2 2025 Earnings and Strategic Updates
Aug 9, 2025

Pembina Pipeline Corporation is a prominent energy transportation and midstream service provider in North America, specializing in hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas pipelines, gas gathering and processing facilities, and export terminals. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, Pembina Pipeline Corporation reported earnings of $417 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1,013 million. The company has updated its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $4.225 billion to $4.425 billion. Key strategic developments include enhanced propane export capabilities, acquisitions in the Duvernay Complex, and ongoing pipeline expansions to meet rising transportation demands. Pembina is also advancing significant projects like the Cedar LNG Project and the Greenlight Electricity Centre, reflecting its commitment to growth and sustainability. Looking ahead, Pembina remains optimistic about its growth prospects, driven by strong fundamentals in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and strategic investments in infrastructure and partnerships.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 08, 2025