Pembina Pipeline (PPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.56B
• Dividend Yield: 5.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: -3.86%
• EPS Growth: -9.35%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,997
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.65
• Shares Outstanding: 580,908,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,473,932
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,611,339
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.44
• 1Y Price Target: $56.45
• Price Target Upside: 12.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$53.00 ▲(5.66% Upside)

Pembina Pipeline's strong financial performance and strategic project developments are key strengths, supporting a stable outlook. However, bearish technical indicators and recent earnings declines present risks. The fair valuation and attractive dividend yield offer some compensation for these challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Strong Q4/24 results with a record $1,254M adjusted EBITDA, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $1,128M.

Growth Opportunities

Pembina Pipeline Corp unveiled a suite of potential new organic-growth projects, including gas power for a data center, a straddle plant, and a de-ethanizer, which are not yet reflected in the current valuation.

Market Position

PPL shares are rated Outperform due to a positive free cash flow position and a strong balance sheet.

Negative Factors

Contract Expirations

Key contracts on the Peace pipeline are set to expire, and increasing competition could result in a significant loss of barrel volumes.

EBITDA Risks

There is a risk to EBITDA growth as marketing profits remain uncertain with largely unhedged future frac spreads.

Valuation Concerns

The company's valuation does not fully account for the risks it is facing, leading to concerns about its current trading price.

Pembina Pipeline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides transportation and midstream services for the energy industry. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands and heavy oil, and transmission assets with a transportation capacity of 3.1 millions of barrels of oil equivalent per day, ground storage of 11 millions of barrels, and rail terminalling capacity of approximately 105 thousands of barrels of oil equivalent per day serving markets and basins across North America. The Facilities segment offers infrastructure that provides customers with natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, butane, and condensate; and includes 354 thousands of barrels per day of NGL fractionation capacity, 21 millions of barrels of cavern storage capacity, and associated pipeline and rail terminalling facilities. The Marketing & New Ventures segment buys and sells hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas originating in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin and other basins. Pembina Pipeline Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Pembina Pipeline generates revenue primarily through its pipeline transportation and processing services. The company charges fees for the transportation of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through its extensive network of pipelines, which includes long-term contracts that provide stable cash flows. Additionally, Pembina earns revenue from its facilities segment, which involves the operation of processing and fractionation plants that extract valuable components from natural gas and liquids. Other significant revenue streams include marketing services, where Pembina acts as an intermediary in the sale of hydrocarbons, and fee-based contracts that help mitigate exposure to commodity price fluctuations. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, further contributing to its earnings stability and growth potential.

Pembina Pipeline Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pembina Pipeline demonstrates strong financial health across all verticals. The income statement highlights profitability and operational efficiency, though with some revenue volatility. The balance sheet shows a solid financial position with manageable debt levels. Cash flow metrics reflect robust cash generation and effective cash management, supporting continued investment and operational stability.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows strong profitability metrics with a TTM gross profit margin of 41.93% and a net profit margin of 23.73%. Both EBIT margin at 36.01% and EBITDA margin at 41.10% reflect efficient operations. Revenue growth has been volatile, with a decrease of 36.78% in 2024 from 2023 but a recovery in TTM revenue growth of 10.06% compared to the 2024 annual figure. Overall, the income statement indicates robust profitability and operational efficiency despite some fluctuations in revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75, indicating a stable capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM stands at 10.97%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 49.20%, reflecting a solid equity base. The balance sheet suggests financial stability with manageable leverage, which is crucial for sustaining operations in the capital-intensive oil & gas industry.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement displays healthy cash flow management with a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.87, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow growth rate of 17.77% from 2024 to TTM demonstrates effective cash flow management. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.38 underscores efficient cash conversion mechanisms. Overall, the cash flow metrics suggest a strong ability to generate and manage cash effectively.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.38B	9.13B	11.61B	8.63B	6.20B
Gross Profit	3.32B	2.84B	3.12B	2.65B	2.01B
EBITDA	3.18B	3.01B	4.00B	2.55B	418.00M
Net Income	1.86B	1.78B	2.97B	1.24B	-316.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.97B	32.62B	31.48B	31.46B	31.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	141.00M	137.00M	94.00M	43.00M	81.00M
Total Debt	13.32B	11.14B	11.28B	11.96B	11.65B
Total Liabilities	18.46B	16.80B	15.69B	17.09B	16.40B
Stockholders Equity	17.51B	15.81B	15.73B	14.30B	14.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.26B	2.03B	2.32B	1.99B	1.22B
Operating Cash Flow	3.21B	2.63B	2.93B	2.65B	2.25B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.89B	-789.00M	-154.00M	-1.04B	-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow	678.00M	-1.80B	-2.72B	-1.67B	-809.00M

Pembina Pipeline Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 50.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.59, below the 50-day MA of 50.71, and below the 200-day MA of 52.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PPL.

Pembina Pipeline Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	67 Neutral	$28.56B	16.55	10.69%	5.48%	-3.86%	-9.35%
Sector *	56 Neutral	C$4.17B	2.02	16.25%	5.63%	10.63%	-51.09%
ENB	―	$103.46B	23.27	9.76%	5.56%	―	―
TRP	―	$52.20B	17.08	15.25%	4.89%	―	―
GBNXF	―	$3.06B	26.66	17.22%	6.43%	―	―
ATGFF	―	$9.08B	16.35	9.15%	2.91%	―	―
KEY	78 Outperform	C$9.94B	18.74	18.92%	4.77%	1.57%	55.82%

Pembina Pipeline Corporate Events

Pembina Pipeline Reports Q2 2025 Results and Strategic Expansions

Pembina Pipeline Corporation reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting earnings of $417 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $1,013 million. The company has updated its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance and announced several strategic initiatives, including enhanced propane exports, acquisitions in gas infrastructure, and pipeline expansions. These developments are aimed at improving market access, reducing costs, and meeting growing transportation demands. Pembina’s capital investment program for 2025 has been revised to $1.3 billion, reflecting its commitment to expanding infrastructure and securing long-term agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Secures Long-term LPG Export Capacity with AltaGas

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has entered into a long-term agreement with AltaGas Ltd. to secure 30,000 barrels per day of liquified petroleum gas export capacity at AltaGas’ Ridley Island facilities. This agreement enhances Pembina’s market diversification and strengthens its position in connecting natural gas products to premium markets, particularly in Asia. The deal complements Pembina’s existing propane marketing capabilities and expands its global market access, benefiting its operations and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline’s Alliance Reaches Settlement with Shippers

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced that Alliance Pipeline Limited Partnership has reached a settlement with shippers on the Canadian portion of the Alliance Pipeline, pending approval from the Canada Energy Regulator. The settlement introduces a revised toll schedule with a 10-year term, reducing long-term firm tolls by an average of 14 percent and offering a one-time term extension option for shippers. This agreement is expected to impact Alliance’s revenue by approximately $50 million per year over the next decade, with additional effects from a new revenue-sharing provision contingent on future commodity prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Completes Consent Solicitation for Note Exchange

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced the successful completion of its solicitation for consent and proxy from holders of its 4.80% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes, Series 1. The solicitation received strong support, allowing the company to pass an extraordinary resolution to amend the indenture and exchange the Series 1 Notes for Series 3 Notes. This move is expected to streamline Pembina’s financial operations and potentially enhance its market positioning by aligning its debt structure more effectively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Declares Quarterly Dividends and Announces Q2 2025 Results Call

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced the declaration of quarterly dividends for its preferred shares across various series, with payment dates set for September and October 2025. Additionally, Pembina will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on August 8, 2025, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Initiates Consent and Proxy Solicitation for Series 1 Notes

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has initiated a consent and proxy solicitation process for its 4.80% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes, Series 1, seeking approval for proposed amendments to the indenture governing these notes. The amendments would allow noteholders to exchange their Series 1 Notes for a new series of subordinated notes, Series 3, which have similar economic terms but differ in bankruptcy provisions. This move could impact the company’s financial structure and offer potential tax implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline Announces $200 Million Subordinated Note Offering

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced a $200 million subordinated note offering, with proceeds intended to fund the redemption of existing preferred shares and for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move aims to optimize Pembina’s capital structure and enhance its financial flexibility, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.

Pembina Pipeline to Redeem Series 19 Preferred Shares

Pembina Pipeline Corporation announced its intention to redeem all 8,000,000 of its issued and outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares, Series 19, on June 30, 2025, at a redemption price of $25.00 per share, totaling $200 million. This move is part of Pembina’s strategic financial management, and the final dividend for these shares will be paid on the same date, marking the end of any accrued dividends, which could impact stakeholders by altering the company’s financial structure and investor returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PPL) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pembina Pipeline stock, see the TSE:PPL Stock Forecast page.