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TC Energy (TSE:TRP)
TSX:TRP

TC Energy (TRP) AI Stock Analysis

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TC Energy

(TSX:TRP)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$71.00
â–²(8.51%Upside)
TC Energy's overall score is driven by strong earnings call insights and reasonable valuation, offset by financial performance challenges and bearish technical indicators. The company's strategic growth initiatives and solid financial outlook contribute positively, while high leverage and weak technicals weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The settlement with Columbia Gas sets interim transportation rates 26% higher than previous rates, which is beneficial for TRP.
Growth Potential
TRP announced a $0.9B USD data center project & signaled there's more to come, leading to an increase in capex estimates.
Operational Efficiency
TRP has begun toll collection on Southeast Gateway from CFE, removing a stock overhang.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
TRP announced a final investment decision on a 0.4 bcf/d ANR expansion and the Unit 5 MCR project, likely increasing capital expenditure.
Earnings Challenges
EPS was slightly below consensus, indicating some challenges in meeting earnings expectations.
Earnings Volatility
TRP has underperformed due to Southeast Gateway Pipeline uncertainty.

TC Energy (TRP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

TC Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTC Energy Corporation (TRP) is a leading North American energy infrastructure company engaged in the development and operation of energy infrastructure in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The company primarily focuses on natural gas and liquids pipelines, power generation, and storage facilities. TC Energy's extensive pipeline network transports natural gas and crude oil, playing a vital role in connecting key supply basins with domestic and international markets. Additionally, the company operates a diverse portfolio of power generation assets, including nuclear, wind, and natural gas-fired facilities.
How the Company Makes MoneyTC Energy generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from its natural gas pipelines, liquids pipelines, and power and storage segments. The natural gas pipelines segment involves the transportation of natural gas through an extensive network of pipelines, where the company earns fees based on the volume of gas transported and the distance covered. The liquids pipelines segment works similarly but focuses on crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons. The power and storage segment generates revenue through the operation of power generation facilities and the provision of energy storage solutions. Additionally, TC Energy benefits from long-term contracts and regulatory frameworks that provide stable and predictable cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies also enhance its business operations and revenue potential through shared infrastructure and resources.

TC Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.85%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance with significant project completions and a solid financial outlook. However, regulatory delays and some operational challenges in specific segments present lowlights. The overall sentiment is positive, driven by notable achievements and strategic growth initiatives.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2025
Safety incident rates are trending at five-year lows, and the business model continues to deliver strong results despite market volatility. Multiple drivers for future growth have been identified.
Southeast Gateway Project Completion
The Southeast Gateway project is complete and ready for service, finished 13% below the original budget. It is contracted until 2055, representing a significant inflection point in long-term cash flow.
Record Operational Performance
TC Energy set 13 all-time delivery records since early 2024. Throughput increased by 6% in the quarter, highlighting strong demand and operational efficiency.
Northwoods Project Announcement
The US $900 million Northwoods project has been approved, expanding the ANR pipeline system. It is expected to enter service in 2029, backed by a 20-year take-or-pay contract.
Bruce Power Major Component Replacement Program
Unit 5 MCR has been sanctioned, a $1.1 billion investment in emission-less nuclear energy, extending the life of Unit 5 by over 35 years.
Financial Outlook Reaffirmed
The 2025-2027 EBITDA outlook is reaffirmed, showing resilience against market volatility. The 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook remains $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, a 7% to 9% increase over 2024.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Approval Pending for Southeast Gateway
The project is awaiting final regulatory approval from the National Energy Commission (CNE) to commence service, which is expected by the end of May.
Bruce Power Availability
Bruce Power achieved 87% availability, which was in line with the plan but lower due to the planned outage on Unit 5.
Lower Contributions from Power and Energy Solutions
Decreased contributions from Bruce Power given units 3 and 4 undergoing MCR and the planned outage on unit 5, partially offset by a higher average realized price.
Company Guidance
During TC Energy's First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the company provided several key financial and operational metrics. They reported that their net capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be between $5.5 billion and $6 billion, and they are on track to place $8.5 billion of assets into service this year, with these projects currently tracking approximately 15% below budget. The company reaffirmed its 2025 EBITDA outlook, projecting between $10.7 billion and $10.9 billion, a 7% to 9% increase over 2024 results. For 2027, TC Energy targets EBITDA of $11.7 billion to $11.9 billion, indicating a 5% to 7% three-year growth rate. The Southeast Gateway project, a major endeavor contracted until 2055, was completed 13% below budget and is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's long-term cash flow profile. Additionally, the approved $0.9 billion Northwoods project will expand the ANR system, backed by a 20-year take-or-pay contract, and is expected to enter service in 2029. Overall, TC Energy emphasized its strong start to the year, resilient business model, and multiple growth drivers amidst market volatility.

TC Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TC Energy demonstrates strong profitability but faces challenges with revenue growth and high leverage. The company maintains robust operating margins and satisfactory return on equity. Cash flow management shows potential weaknesses with declining free cash flow. The financial stability is influenced by high debt levels, posing potential risks if revenue contraction persists.
Income Statement
72
Positive
TC Energy shows solid profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 48.32% and a net profit margin of 34.04%, indicating efficient cost management and strong bottom-line performance. However, the company has faced revenue contraction over the past year, with a decline of 4.50% from 2024 to 2025. The TTM EBIT margin remains robust at 42.11% while the EBITDA margin is at 84.00%, showcasing strong operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 2.24, reflecting significant leverage, which poses potential financial risk. Return on equity stands strong at 16.16%, demonstrating effective equity utilization to generate profits. The equity ratio is 22.97%, indicating a moderate level of equity funding relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
The free cash flow growth rate is negative, showing a substantial decline from previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.57, indicating that operating cash flows are well-aligned with net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.15, suggesting limited free cash flow generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue13.15B13.77B15.03B12.31B13.39B13.00B
Gross Profit6.36B6.61B6.85B5.80B6.68B6.53B
EBITDA11.05B11.45B8.66B5.48B6.39B8.87B
Net Income4.48B4.70B2.92B748.00M1.96B4.62B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets120.55B118.24B125.03B114.35B104.22B100.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.96B801.00M3.68B620.00M673.00M1.53B
Total Debt61.99B59.88B63.66B58.68B53.15B49.99B
Total Liabilities82.11B79.88B86.03B80.23B70.82B66.83B
Stockholders Equity27.69B27.59B29.55B33.99B33.27B31.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow690.00M1.34B-881.00M-352.00M966.00M-1.08B
Operating Cash Flow7.01B7.70B7.27B6.38B6.89B7.06B
Investing Cash Flow-6.79B-6.91B-12.29B-7.01B-7.71B-6.05B
Financing Cash Flow-1.65B-3.87B8.09B487.00M-88.00M-800.00M

TC Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price65.43
Price Trends
50DMA
67.31
Negative
100DMA
66.35
Negative
200DMA
64.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.59
Negative
RSI
45.66
Neutral
STOCH
32.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 65.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.61, below the 50-day MA of 67.31, and above the 200-day MA of 64.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TRP.

TC Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSPPL
76
Outperform
$29.34B16.4711.55%5.60%-5.42%-1.70%
TSKEY
76
Outperform
C$9.85B18.0419.55%4.84%8.00%52.89%
TSENB
75
Outperform
C$132.76B22.459.51%6.19%43.97%2.65%
TSGEI
73
Outperform
$3.88B23.8617.23%7.23%-5.85%-8.05%
TSTRP
68
Neutral
$68.14B15.5815.89%5.20%0.72%60.40%
TSALA
67
Neutral
$11.49B20.376.56%3.23%2.27%-9.19%
52
Neutral
C$2.91B-1.09-3.26%6.12%5.32%-43.41%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
65.43
21.23
48.03%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
38.42
8.64
29.02%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
23.78
2.88
13.80%
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
50.73
2.45
5.09%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
60.89
15.54
34.28%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
42.98
7.37
20.70%

TC Energy Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
TC Energy Commences Tolls on Under-Budget Southeast Gateway Pipeline
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

TC Energy has begun collecting tolls on the Southeast Gateway pipeline, a major natural gas infrastructure project completed under budget and ahead of schedule. This pipeline, constructed in partnership with Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), is crucial for supporting Mexico’s energy demand and economic growth. The project underscores TC Energy’s commitment to enhancing energy security and transitioning to more sustainable energy sources in Mexico.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
TC Energy Announces Preferred Shares Conversion Options
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

TC Energy announced that it will not redeem its Series 3 and Series 4 preferred shares on June 30, 2025. Shareholders of these series have options to either retain their shares and receive dividends at new rates or convert them between Series 3 and Series 4 to switch between fixed and floating dividend rates. The decision impacts the company’s financial structuring and offers flexibility to shareholders, with potential implications for market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TC Energy Confirms Board of Directors Election Results at 2025 Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 8, 2025

TC Energy announced the election results for its Board of Directors at the 2025 annual meeting, where all 13 nominees were elected to serve until the next meeting. This election solidifies the company’s leadership structure, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relationships. The final voting results will be available on SEDAR+ and EDGAR, as well as the company’s website.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
TC Energy to Announce Q1 2025 Results and Hold Virtual Annual Meeting
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

TC Energy announced that it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 1, followed by its annual meeting of common shareholders on May 8, which will be held virtually. The financial results will be discussed by the company’s executive leadership, providing insights into recent company developments. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it offers an opportunity to assess the company’s financial health and strategic direction. The virtual format of the annual meeting ensures broader accessibility for shareholders, reflecting TC Energy’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025