TC Energy (TRP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $92.28B
• Dividend Yield: 4.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: -3.98%
• EPS Growth: -33.45%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,668
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 1,041,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,789,226
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,455,015
• PEG Ratio: -0.85
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 37.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.17
• 1Y Price Target: $86.03
• Price Target Upside: -2.96% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $16.12B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: C$93.00 ▲(4.91% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by solid operating performance but meaningfully constrained by leverage and uneven free-cash-flow conversion. Technicals support the longer-term uptrend, though overbought readings temper the near-term outlook. Valuation is mixed (good yield but higher P/E), while the latest earnings call adds support through strong execution, project growth, and a clear deleveraging target.

Positive Factors

Contracted & regulated cash flows

TC Energy’s core earnings arise from long-term shipper contracts and regulated tariffs, creating relatively predictable cash flows and lower commodity exposure. That structural revenue mix supports durable earnings visibility, underwriting capital spending, dividend policy and project financing over multi-year horizons.

Re-accelerating revenue and strong margins

A material revenue re-acceleration and consistently high operating margins indicate robust core throughput and network economics. Sustained margin strength improves internal cash generation potential, helps absorb cyclical dips and supports reinvestment into growth projects and maintenance of distributions over the medium term.

Consistent project execution and growth pipeline

Strong delivery track record—most sanctioned projects on/ ahead of schedule and under budget—lowers execution risk and preserves projected returns. Combined with a pipeline of sanctioned and new projects and favorable demand trends, this provides durable organic growth and clearer cash flow expansion paths over coming years.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Substantially higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk, especially for a capital-intensive midstream business. A diminished equity base limits cushion for shocks and leaves the company more reliant on steady operating cash to meet obligations and execute deleveraging targets over multiple years.

Inconsistent free cash flow conversion

While operating cash is solid, inconsistent free cash flow and low cash conversion mean internal funding for dividends, debt paydown, or large growth capex is constrained. Persistent capex requirements could keep FCF volatility elevated and slow progress toward stated leverage targets without external financing.

Regulatory & operational execution risks

Ongoing regulatory friction and operational disruptions (e.g., planned outages at equity investments) can delay projects, raise costs, and introduce earnings volatility despite long-term contracts. These structural execution and approval risks can extend timelines and pressure returns on new investments over multiple quarters.

TC Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. It operates through five segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; Liquids Pipelines; and Power and Storage. The company builds and operates 93,300 km network of natural gas pipelines, which transports natural gas from supply basins to local distribution companies, power generation plants, industrial facilities, interconnecting pipelines, LNG export terminals, and other businesses. It also has regulated natural gas storage facilities with a total working gas capacity of 535 billion cubic feet. In addition, it has approximately 4,900 km liquids pipeline system that connects Alberta crude oil supplies to refining markets in Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas, and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Further, the company owns or has interests in seven power generation facilities with a combined capacity of approximately 4,300 megawatts that are powered by natural gas and nuclear fuel sources located in Alberta, Ontario, Québec, and New Brunswick; and owns and operates approximately 118 billion cubic feet of non-regulated natural gas storage capacity in Alberta. The company was formerly known as TransCanada Corporation and changed its name to TC Energy Corporation in May 2019. TC Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TC Energy generates revenue primarily through the transportation and storage of natural gas and liquids, as well as power generation. The company earns a significant portion of its income from its regulated natural gas and liquids pipelines, which operate under long-term contracts that provide stable cash flows. Additionally, TC Energy's power generation segment contributes revenue through the sale of electricity in regulated and competitive markets. Key revenue streams include fees charged for the transportation of natural gas and crude oil, and revenue from the sale of electricity. The company also engages in partnerships and joint ventures to expand its infrastructure and services, which can enhance its earnings potential and operational efficiency.

TC Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating profile with re-accelerating 2025 revenue and consistently high margins, but overall quality is held back by elevated leverage (rising debt-to-equity with debt above $60B), a declining equity base, and inconsistent free-cash-flow generation/cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue re-accelerated in 2025 (up ~22% vs. near-flat growth in 2024), and profitability remains strong with consistently high gross and operating margins. However, net income is volatile (notably weaker in 2022 and lower in 2025 vs. 2024), indicating earnings sensitivity and less consistent bottom-line conversion despite solid operating performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-heavy, but leverage is elevated: debt-to-equity has risen to ~2.23 in 2025 from ~1.59 in 2020, with total debt now above $60B. Equity has trended down from 2022–2025, reducing cushion and financial flexibility, even though returns on equity improved from low levels in 2022 and were solid in 2024.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is steady (~$6.4B–$7.7B annually), supporting the core business, and free cash flow turned positive again in 2024–2025 with modest growth. Still, free cash flow has been inconsistent (negative in multiple years including 2022–2023 and 2020), and in 2025 free cash flow covers only a modest portion of net income (~28%), suggesting meaningful capital intensity and thinner cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.20B	13.77B	13.27B	12.31B	13.39B
Gross Profit	7.60B	6.61B	6.67B	5.80B	6.68B
EBITDA	9.49B	11.22B	8.66B	5.24B	6.70B
Net Income	3.52B	4.70B	2.92B	748.00M	1.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	118.75B	118.24B	125.03B	114.35B	104.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	261.00M	801.00M	3.68B	620.00M	673.00M
Total Debt	61.00B	59.88B	63.66B	58.68B	53.15B
Total Liabilities	81.85B	79.88B	86.03B	80.23B	70.82B
Stockholders Equity	27.30B	27.59B	29.55B	33.99B	33.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.08B	1.34B	-881.00M	-352.00M	966.00M
Operating Cash Flow	7.35B	7.70B	7.27B	6.38B	6.89B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.46B	-6.91B	-12.29B	-7.01B	-7.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.52B	-3.87B	8.09B	487.00M	-88.00M

TC Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 88.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 88.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.65, above the 50-day MA of 79.61, and above the 200-day MA of 72.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.80 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TRP.

TC Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	77 Outperform	C$35.30B	17.93	9.91%	5.44%	2.81%	-14.92%
ENB	69 Neutral	C$162.11B	22.97	11.70%	5.80%	33.06%	-12.36%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
TRP	65 Neutral	$92.28B	22.34	13.64%	4.41%	-3.98%	-33.45%
ALA	64 Neutral	C$14.54B	-188.74	9.01%	2.99%	-0.68%	49.61%
KEY	61 Neutral	C$12.01B	23.33	15.28%	4.81%	-4.09%	-3.57%
GEI	58 Neutral	$5.08B	20.80	16.47%	6.61%	-12.18%	-29.17%

TC Energy Corporate Events

TC Energy Files 2025 Annual Disclosure Documents in Canada and U.S.

TC Energy has filed its audited consolidated financial statements and related management’s discussion and analysis, along with its annual information form, for the year ended Dec. 31, 2025 with Canadian securities regulators. The company also submitted its Form 40-F for the same period to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, making its latest annual disclosure package available to investors through securities filings and its website.

These filings provide shareholders and analysts with updated, comprehensive information on TC Energy’s financial performance and operations, reinforcing the company’s regulatory compliance across both Canadian and U.S. markets. By ensuring timely access to its annual reports, TC Energy supports transparency for stakeholders and underpins informed decision-making in assessing its role in North American energy infrastructure and power generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TC Energy Lifts Dividend Again as 2025 Results Show Strong Operations and Growth Outlook

TC Energy reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting its best safety performance in five years and 15 flow records across its systems. Comparable EBITDA from continuing operations rose to $3.0 billion in the quarter and $11.0 billion for the year, while the board approved a 3.2% increase in the quarterly common share dividend, extending a 26-year streak of dividend growth.

Management signaled confidence in sustained growth, citing progress in commercial discussions that supports fully allocating roughly $6 billion in net annual capital expenditures through 2030. For 2026, the company expects higher comparable EBITDA and earnings per share than in 2025, with forecast comparable EBITDA of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion and net capital spending of $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion, underscoring continued investment in its pipeline and energy infrastructure portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TC Energy to Consolidate Preferred Shares Into Single Series 5 Issue

TC Energy will consolidate its preferred share capital into a single listed series after determining that fewer than one million Series 6 floating rate preferred shares would remain outstanding following shareholder conversion elections. As a result, no Series 5 fixed rate shares will convert into Series 6, all existing Series 6 shares will be automatically exchanged into Series 5 on a one-for-one basis on January 30, 2026, leaving 14 million Series 5 shares outstanding, which will continue to trade on the TSX under TRP.PR.C and pay a fixed annual dividend rate of 4.501 per cent for the next five years, with future conversion opportunities every fifth year, affecting income-oriented investors and simplifying the company’s preferred share structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TC Energy Schedules Feb. 13 Call to Discuss Q4 2025 Results

TC Energy will hold a teleconference and webcast on Feb. 13, 2026, to review its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, with President and CEO François Poirier, CFO Sean O’Donnell and other executives set to brief analysts and investors on recent performance and company developments. The call, which will be accessible to the investment community and other stakeholders via phone and online webcast with replay options, underscores the company’s ongoing investor engagement and transparency around its financial health and strategic direction in the North American energy infrastructure market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TC Energy Sets New Dividend Rates and Conversion Terms for Series 5 and 6 Preferred Shares

TC Energy has confirmed it will not redeem its Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 5 and Series 6, on Jan. 30, 2026, instead allowing investors in both series to either retain their existing shares or convert them on a one-for-one basis between a fixed and a floating dividend structure. Holders of Series 5 shares who keep them will receive a fixed annual dividend rate of 4.501 per cent for the five-year term beginning Jan. 30, 2026, while those who opt to switch to Series 6, and existing Series 6 holders who remain, will receive a floating quarterly dividend initially set at 3.732 per cent for the three months from Jan. 30 to April 30, 2026, with the rate reset every quarter. The company has set a Jan. 16, 2026, 5 p.m. ET deadline for beneficial owners to instruct their brokers on conversion elections, and it has outlined automatic one-for-one conversions between the two series if fewer than one million shares of either series remain outstanding after Jan. 30, 2026. Investors will also have recurring opportunities to convert between the two series every five years starting in 2031, underscoring TC Energy’s continued use of preferred share structures to manage its capital base while offering shareholders a choice between rate stability and potential upside from floating dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.