TC Energy (TSE:TRP)
TSX:TRP
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TC Energy
(TSX:TRP)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$100.00
â–²(20.60% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:05/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and improving free cash flow, but constrained by high leverage). Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, though near-overbought signals add caution. Earnings-call commentary reinforces the outlook via reaffirmed guidance and strong execution, while valuation is moderate with a supportive dividend but a not-cheap P/E.
Positive Factors
Regulated & Contracted Revenue
TC Energy’s business model is anchored in regulated tariffs and long-term shipper contracts, which tie most revenue to capacity and regulated rates rather than commodity prices. This structural revenue base supports durable cash flow visibility, underwriting capex, dividends and lower earnings volatility over multi-year horizons.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Material structural leverage limits financial flexibility and heightens refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. With large capital programs, elevated debt increases reliance on timely asset starts, project financing or asset recycling to avoid stress on credit metrics, constraining aggressive balance-sheet-driven growth.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated & Contracted Revenue
TC Energy’s business model is anchored in regulated tariffs and long-term shipper contracts, which tie most revenue to capacity and regulated rates rather than commodity prices. This structural revenue base supports durable cash flow visibility, underwriting capex, dividends and lower earnings volatility over multi-year horizons.
Read all positive factors
TC Energy (TRP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$92.26B
Dividend Yield4.41%
Average Volume (3M)7.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.5
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth1.37%
EPS Growth-24.17%
CountryCA
Employees6,668
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.18
Shares Outstanding1,041,218,500
10 Day Avg. Volume6,061,574
30 Day Avg. Volume7,196,018
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.85
Price to Book (P/B)2.88
Price to Sales (P/S)5.17
P/FCF Ratio37.77
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$91.13Price Target Upside9.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)3.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$15.99B
TC Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. It operates through five segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; Liquids Pipelines; and Power and Stor...
How the Company Makes Money
TC Energy primarily makes money by charging regulated tariffs and/or contract-based fees for transporting energy commodities through its pipeline networks and by earning contracted or market-based revenues from its power assets. A major portion of...
TC Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution, notable project delivery and cost-out performance (including >15% under-budget delivery and sizable project placements), clear visibility to multi-year EBITDA growth (reaffirmed 2026 and 2028 ranges), and a deep pipeline (pending approval ~$8B and origination ~$12B). Offsetting items were temporary impacts from Bruce Power outages, evolving balance-sheet planning for larger projects and some regional currency/tax and regulatory complexities. Overall, the positives around execution, backlog and financial guidance materially outweighed the challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Comparable EBITDA Growth (Full Year and Q4)
Full-year comparable EBITDA increased ~9% year-over-year, and fourth-quarter comparable EBITDA grew 13% year-over-year, with the quarter generating nearly $3.0 billion of EBITDA.
Negative Updates
Bruce Power Availability and Unit Outages
Equity income from Bruce Power was lower quarter-over-quarter due to Unit 4 and Unit 3 being offline for Major Component Replacement (MCR) programs; Bruce reported 86% availability in 2025 (including planned outages), below the expected full-year low-90s percent availability for 2026.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Comparable EBITDA Growth (Full Year and Q4)
Full-year comparable EBITDA increased ~9% year-over-year, and fourth-quarter comparable EBITDA grew 13% year-over-year, with the quarter generating nearly $3.0 billion of EBITDA.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance of $11.6–$11.8 billion (and 2028 guidance of $12.6–$13.1 billion), declared a Q1‑2026 dividend of $0.8775/share (annualized $3.51, +3.2% YoY within the 3–5% target, 26th consecutive year of growth), and maintained a $6 billion/year net capital target through 2030 (expecting to have it fully allocated by end‑2026). They expect to place about $4 billion into service in 2026 (after placing $8.3 billion into service in 2025, including $2 billion in Q4), shifted $0.5 billion of capital into 2026, added $600 million of new projects in Q4, advanced $5 billion of projects in Q4, and have grown their late‑stage pending approval portfolio to roughly $8 billion (up ~ $2 billion) with an additional ~$12 billion in origination; targeted build multiples remain 5–7x and management sees scope to potentially surpass the $6 billion pace in the latter part of the decade. Operational and market metrics cited include North American gas demand growth of ~45 Bcf/d from 2025–2035, serving 7 LNG facilities (≈30% of North American LNG feed gas), 170 power plants, ~60% of projected U.S. data center growth, and expected electricity demand growth of ~65% through 2050. On Bruce Power, expected availability is in the low‑90s% for 2026 (Q4 availability 86%), every available unit drives roughly $1 million/day of incremental revenue, and MCR investments (currently ~ $1 billion/year) should shift to net cash flow (≈$0.5 billion returning by the end of the decade and >$2 billion once MCRs are complete).TC Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.76B | 15.20B | 13.77B | 13.27B | 12.31B | 13.39B |
| Gross Profit | 8.06B | 7.60B | 6.61B | 6.67B | 5.80B | 6.68B |
| EBITDA | 10.90B | 9.49B | 11.22B | 8.66B | 5.24B | 6.70B |
| Net Income | 3.44B | 3.52B | 4.70B | 2.92B | 748.00M | 1.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 120.83B | 118.75B | 118.24B | 125.03B | 114.35B | 104.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 261.00M | 801.00M | 3.68B | 620.00M | 673.00M |
| Total Debt | 61.81B | 61.00B | 59.88B | 63.66B | 58.68B | 53.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 83.67B | 81.85B | 79.88B | 86.03B | 80.23B | 70.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.53B | 27.30B | 27.59B | 29.55B | 33.99B | 33.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.80B | 2.08B | 1.34B | -881.00M | -352.00M | 966.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.59B | 7.35B | 7.70B | 7.27B | 6.38B | 6.89B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.99B | -6.46B | -6.91B | -12.29B | -7.01B | -7.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.50B | -1.52B | -3.87B | 8.09B | 487.00M | -88.00M |
TC Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
82.92
Price Trends
85.64
Negative
80.29
Positive
74.58
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.39
Positive
35.20
Neutral
8.90
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 82.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.61, below the 50-day MA of 85.64, and above the 200-day MA of 74.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TRP.
TC Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$159.99B | 17.39 | 12.34% | 5.80% | 21.76% | 37.87% | |
73 Outperform | C$36.37B | 18.16 | 9.91% | 5.44% | -5.92% | -12.92% | |
71 Outperform | C$92.26B | 24.46 | 12.80% | 4.41% | 1.37% | -24.17% | |
69 Neutral | C$15.80B | 25.03 | 8.74% | 2.99% | 1.11% | -13.38% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | C$11.81B | 27.94 | 15.39% | 4.81% | -6.30% | -11.17% | |
54 Neutral | C$4.82B | -916.52 | 16.60% | 6.61% | -4.83% | -9.94% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
88.61
22.83
34.70%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
73.33
12.58
20.70%
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
62.58
13.53
27.59%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
28.05
7.44
36.13%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
50.77
13.94
37.85%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
51.50
9.80
23.49%
TC Energy Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
TC Energy Sets Dates for Q1 2026 Results Call and Virtual Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
TC Energy will host a teleconference and webcast on May 1, 2026, to review its first-quarter financial results, led by President and CEO François Poirier and CFO Sean O’Donnell for analysts and other interested parties. The company will...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TC Energy Files 2025 Annual Disclosure Documents in Canada and U.S.
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
TC Energy has filed its audited consolidated financial statements and related management’s discussion and analysis, along with its annual information form, for the year ended Dec. 31, 2025 with Canadian securities regulators. The company als...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
TC Energy Lifts Dividend Again as 2025 Results Show Strong Operations and Growth Outlook
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
TC Energy reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting its best safety performance in five years and 15 flow records across its systems. Comparable EBITDA from continuing operations rose to $3.0 billion in the quarter an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.