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TC Energy (TSE:TRP)
TSX:TRP
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TC Energy (TRP) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TRP

TC Energy

(TSX:TRP)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$79.00
â–²(10.27% Upside)
TC Energy's strong earnings call, highlighting robust financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, is the most significant factor driving the score. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, while the valuation remains attractive. Financial performance is solid but tempered by high leverage, which requires careful management.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors

TC Energy (TRP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

TC Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTC Energy Corporation (TRP) is a leading North American energy infrastructure company based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It primarily operates in the natural gas and liquids sectors, owning and managing a vast network of pipelines that transport natural gas, crude oil, and refined products across Canada and the United States. The company also has interests in power generation, with a portfolio that includes renewable energy projects. TC Energy is committed to providing safe, reliable, and efficient energy solutions to meet the growing demands of its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyTC Energy generates revenue primarily through its regulated and non-regulated business segments. The regulated operations, which involve the transportation of natural gas and liquids, provide stable and predictable cash flows through long-term contracts with customers. This segment includes its extensive pipeline network, where it earns fees for transporting energy products. In addition to pipeline operations, TC Energy also generates revenue from its power generation portfolio, which includes both traditional and renewable energy sources. The company often engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its infrastructure capabilities and enhance its service offerings. Factors contributing to TC Energy's earnings include demand for energy transportation, regulatory frameworks that support infrastructure development, and its ability to efficiently manage operational costs.

TC Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted TC Energy's strong financial performance, successful project completions, and increased forecasts for natural gas demand, outweighing the challenges posed by lower Alberta power prices and currency impacts. The company's strategic investments and sustainability efforts further emphasize a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
TC Energy delivered a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA, with an increased 2025 outlook to $10.8 billion to $11 billion, representing an approximately 9% increase over 2024.
Columbia Gas System Settlement
Reached a settlement in principle with customers on the Columbia Gas system, resulting in a 26% increase in pre-filed FTS rates, underscoring demand and effective collaboration with stakeholders.
Completion of Major Projects
Approximately $5.8 billion of capacity projects were completed or placed into service, including Southeast Gateway and East Lateral XPress Project.
Increased Natural Gas Demand Forecast
North American natural gas demand is now forecast to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035, up from a prior forecast of 40 Bcf per day.
Improved Project Returns
The average unlevered after-tax IRR of sanctioned projects increased to approximately 12% in 2025, up from 8.5% a few years ago.
Bruce Power Investment
Bruce Power's availability improved to an expected average in the low 90s for 2025, with investments expected to nearly double equity income by 2035.
Sustainability Achievements
TC Energy reduced absolute methane emissions by 12% over the last 5 years while increasing throughput by 15%.
Negative Updates
Lower Alberta Power Prices
Alberta power prices continued to average approximately $40 per megawatt hour in the second quarter, impacting contributions from the Power and Energy Solutions business.
Strengthening Peso Impact
Lower equity earnings from Sur de Texas due to the strengthening peso and higher income tax expense.
Company Guidance
During TC Energy's second-quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided robust guidance metrics, demonstrating strong performance and future growth prospects. The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for the second quarter and raised its 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to between $10.8 billion and $11 billion, marking an approximate 9% increase over 2024. This growth is supported by a 26% increase in pre-filed FTS rates on the Columbia Gas system and the completion or activation of around $5.8 billion in capacity projects. TC Energy expects to place about $8.5 billion of assets into service in 2025, with a focus on brownfield expansions. The fundamentals of their business remain strong, with North American natural gas demand forecasted to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035. Their financial outlook anticipates further deleveraging to about 4.75x by 2026, with a projected EBITDA growth rate of 5% to 7% over three years.

TC Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TC Energy demonstrates strong profitability and operational efficiency with robust EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the high leverage indicated by the debt-to-equity ratio poses a potential risk. The company shows promising cash flow growth, supporting its financial stability, but needs to focus on revenue growth and debt management.
Income Statement
75
Positive
TC Energy's income statement shows a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating efficient operations. However, the company experienced a decline in revenue growth rate, which is a concern. The net profit margin remains healthy, reflecting good profitability despite the revenue dip.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed well. However, the return on equity is solid, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, reflecting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a strong free cash flow growth rate, which is a positive indicator for future investments and debt repayment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.81B13.77B13.27B12.31B13.39B13.00B
Gross Profit6.34B6.61B6.67B5.80B6.68B6.53B
EBITDA10.88B11.22B8.66B5.24B6.70B9.53B
Net Income4.35B4.70B2.92B748.00M1.96B4.62B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets116.84B118.24B125.03B114.35B104.22B100.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.42B801.00M3.68B620.00M673.00M1.53B
Total Debt59.43B59.88B63.66B58.68B53.15B49.99B
Total Liabilities79.46B79.88B86.03B80.23B70.82B66.83B
Stockholders Equity27.52B27.59B29.55B33.99B33.27B31.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.44B1.34B-881.00M-352.00M966.00M-1.08B
Operating Cash Flow7.53B7.70B7.27B6.38B6.89B7.06B
Investing Cash Flow-6.59B-6.91B-12.29B-7.01B-7.71B-6.05B
Financing Cash Flow-2.19B-3.87B8.09B487.00M-88.00M-800.00M

TC Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price71.64
Price Trends
50DMA
68.51
Positive
100DMA
67.91
Positive
200DMA
66.59
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.92
Positive
RSI
58.42
Neutral
STOCH
66.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.46, above the 50-day MA of 68.51, and above the 200-day MA of 66.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TRP.

TC Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$74.86B17.6415.25%4.84%-2.93%23.33%
74
Outperform
147.36B23.7610.13%5.54%48.78%9.69%
73
Outperform
10.22B19.2818.75%4.70%1.57%55.82%
67
Neutral
30.91B17.9111.00%5.26%-3.86%-9.35%
66
Neutral
12.55B16.069.27%2.95%-1.95%78.65%
66
Neutral
4.29B26.9118.61%6.41%-14.27%-11.69%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
71.64
17.46
32.22%
ENB
Enbridge
48.89
10.71
28.05%
PBA
Pembina Pipeline
39.35
1.22
3.20%
GBNXF
Gibson Energy
19.22
4.00
26.28%
ATGFF
AltaGas
30.46
5.31
21.11%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
45.16
5.92
15.09%

TC Energy Corporate Events

Dividends
TC Energy Declares Quarterly Dividends, Reinforces Shareholder Value
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

TC Energy Corporation announced the declaration of a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per common share for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The dividends are designated as eligible for tax purposes, providing an enhanced dividend tax credit for Canadian residents. This move reflects TC Energy’s commitment to providing consistent returns to its shareholders and may impact investor confidence positively. Additionally, the company’s Dividend Reinvestment and Share Purchase Plan allows shareholders to reinvest dividends, potentially increasing their holdings in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
TC Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Announces New Growth Projects
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

TC Energy reported strong second-quarter 2025 results, highlighting solid execution and asset performance that support an improved financial outlook for the year. The company announced $4.5 billion in new growth projects over the past nine months to meet increasing customer demand for incremental capacity. TC Energy expects to place approximately $8.5 billion of capital projects into service this year, with costs tracking about 15% below budget. The company’s disciplined strategy and focus on high-value, low-risk opportunities are expected to drive long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
TC Energy to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 12, 2025

TC Energy announced it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 31, 2025, with a teleconference and webcast scheduled for the same day. The event will feature discussions by key executives, including the CEO and CFO, on the company’s financial performance and developments. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s operational and financial health, potentially impacting its market position and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
TC Energy Commences Tolls on Under-Budget Southeast Gateway Pipeline
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

TC Energy has begun collecting tolls on the Southeast Gateway pipeline, a major natural gas infrastructure project completed under budget and ahead of schedule. This pipeline, constructed in partnership with Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), is crucial for supporting Mexico’s energy demand and economic growth. The project underscores TC Energy’s commitment to enhancing energy security and transitioning to more sustainable energy sources in Mexico.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
TC Energy Announces Preferred Shares Conversion Options
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

TC Energy announced that it will not redeem its Series 3 and Series 4 preferred shares on June 30, 2025. Shareholders of these series have options to either retain their shares and receive dividends at new rates or convert them between Series 3 and Series 4 to switch between fixed and floating dividend rates. The decision impacts the company’s financial structuring and offers flexibility to shareholders, with potential implications for market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025