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AltaGas Ltd. (TSE:ALA)
TSX:ALA
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AltaGas (ALA) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:ALA

AltaGas

(TSX:ALA)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$46.00
▲(11.46% Upside)
AltaGas's overall stock score of 73 reflects a strong earnings call performance and positive technical indicators, which are the most significant factors. The company's financial performance shows operational efficiency but is challenged by declining revenue and cash flow. The valuation is fair, supporting a stable investment outlook. Positive sentiment from strategic advancements and project progress further enhances the score.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
AltaGas has delivered strong Q4 results, exceeding guidance for the sixth consecutive year.
Market Reaction
The market reacted positively to AltaGas's results, with shares rising 3.5% likely due to enthusiasm about a potential sale and positive data center commentary.
Negative Factors
Debt Management
AltaGas maintains a focus on debt reduction driven by self-funded organic growth and attractive relative valuation.
Earnings Protection
AltaGas is highly hedged on global LPG exports and frac spreads, protecting earnings and EBITDA downside.

AltaGas (ALA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

AltaGas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAltaGas Ltd. is a North American energy infrastructure company based in Calgary, Alberta. The company operates in three primary segments: Gas, Power, and Utilities. AltaGas is involved in the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas, as well as the generation and distribution of electricity. It also provides utility services such as natural gas and electricity distribution to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. With a focus on sustainable energy solutions, AltaGas is committed to delivering reliable energy products while minimizing its environmental impact.
How the Company Makes MoneyAltaGas generates revenue through multiple key streams. The Gas segment earns income by providing natural gas gathering, processing, and transmission services, as well as through the sale of processed natural gas. The Power segment contributes revenue from electricity generation and wholesale power sales, particularly from its renewable energy assets. The Utilities segment derives income from regulated rates for the distribution of natural gas and electricity to end-users. Additionally, AltaGas benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with other energy companies, which provide stable cash flows and enhance its market position. Factors such as regulatory frameworks, commodity prices, and operational efficiencies also significantly influence the company's earnings.

AltaGas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.88%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong quarter for AltaGas with significant financial growth and successful progress on key projects, particularly in the midstream and utilities segments. However, the company faces regulatory challenges in Maryland and delays in construction due to weather, alongside a slight decline in retail contributions. The sentiment remains positive due to the outweighing highlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Normalized EBITDA of $342 million in Q2, a 16% increase from Q2 2024. Normalized EPS was $0.27, nearly double the $0.14 per share in 2024.
Record Export Volumes
Record second quarter global export volumes of LPGs, with almost 128,000 barrels per day delivered to Asia.
Successful Midstream Growth
Midstream throughput grew by 6% year-over-year, driven by Montney assets, and normalized EBITDA for the Midstream segment increased by 23% from the same period last year.
Utilities Segment Growth
Utilities delivered a 10% growth in normalized EBITDA from Q2 2024, driven by modernization investments, improved asset optimization, and colder weather in Michigan.
Expansion Projects on Track
Construction on REEF and Pipestone II projects is progressing well, with REEF on time and on budget, and Pipestone II expected to be in service by late 2025.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Challenges in Maryland
Ongoing issues with the Next Generation Energy Act and gas ban activities, leading to potential economic impacts and legal challenges.
Weather Delays in Construction
Progress on the Jetty at REEF was delayed due to weather conditions, although recovery efforts are underway.
Retail Contribution Decline
Utilities segment faced a decline in retail contributions during the quarter.
Dependence on External Factors for MVP Monetization
Sale of Mountain Valley Pipeline interest delayed due to operational due diligence and expansion project dependencies.
Company Guidance
During the AltaGas Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance indicating strong performance and strategic advancements. AltaGas reported a 16% increase in normalized EBITDA to $342 million and a nearly doubled normalized EPS of $0.27 compared to Q2 2024. They achieved record global export volumes of LPGs, reaching approximately 128,000 barrels per day. The company has exceeded its 2027 NGL year tolling target of 100,000 barrels per day and filed a $65 million rate case in Virginia. AltaGas continues to focus on strategic priorities, including maximizing asset returns, reducing financial leverage, and advancing growth projects like the REEF and Pipestone II, which are on schedule and within budget. The company remains committed to disciplined capital allocation, strong organic growth, and maintaining its 2025 guidance, while also emphasizing the importance of delivering reliable, affordable energy to its customers.

AltaGas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
AltaGas shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, a stable balance sheet, and positive cash flow. The income statement reflects robust gross profit margins and stable net profit margins. The balance sheet indicates reasonable leverage, and the cash flow analysis shows healthy cash conversion despite some volatility.
Income Statement
75
Positive
AltaGas exhibits strong income statement performance with consistent revenue growth, though recent periods show a slight decline. Gross profit margins are robust, and the company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins. The net profit margin is stable, reflecting good cost control despite competitive pressures.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a solid equity base with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating reasonable leverage. Return on equity is decent, showing effective use of equity capital, while the equity ratio suggests a stable asset base with sufficient shareholder equity.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates positive free cash flow growth, although fluctuations in operating cash flow and capital expenditures are observed. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, showing efficient cash conversion from profits, albeit slight volatility in free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.87B12.45B13.00B14.09B10.57B5.59B
Gross Profit3.47B3.25B2.88B2.95B2.87B2.41B
EBITDA1.94B1.68B1.70B1.48B1.41B1.34B
Net Income799.00M596.00M673.00M399.00M283.00M552.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets25.27B26.09B23.47B23.96B21.59B21.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments320.00M85.00M95.00M53.00M63.00M32.00M
Total Debt10.28B10.57B9.88B10.17B8.71B8.64B
Total Liabilities16.20B17.05B15.61B16.35B13.99B13.87B
Stockholders Equity8.62B8.75B7.71B7.46B6.95B7.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow8.00M149.00M178.00M-419.00M-76.00M-70.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.52B1.54B1.12B539.00M738.00M773.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.45B-1.38B-199.00M-997.00M-483.00M-1.21B
Financing Cash Flow198.00M-175.00M-882.00M435.00M-245.00M392.00M

AltaGas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price41.27
Price Trends
50DMA
39.25
Positive
100DMA
38.81
Positive
200DMA
36.24
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.58
Negative
RSI
65.76
Neutral
STOCH
62.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ALA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.52, above the 50-day MA of 39.25, and above the 200-day MA of 36.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ALA.

AltaGas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$9.93B18.7218.92%4.80%1.57%55.82%
74
Outperform
$2.80B8.2714.64%-9.78%5.12%
73
Outperform
$12.50B15.999.15%2.93%-1.95%78.65%
70
Outperform
C$6.65B22.309.44%3.74%-10.91%-21.14%
68
Neutral
$4.15B26.0217.22%6.60%-14.27%-11.69%
64
Neutral
C$1.55B31.562.90%4.57%5.71%320.62%
56
Neutral
C$4.16B2.2516.25%5.63%6.44%-50.90%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
41.77
9.51
29.47%
TSE:NVA
NuVista Energy
14.27
1.21
9.26%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
25.46
5.36
26.69%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
43.34
5.52
14.60%
TSE:SPB
Superior Plus
6.89
-0.61
-8.13%
TSE:PKI
Parkland
37.97
3.38
9.77%

AltaGas Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AltaGas Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Record LPG Exports
Positive
Aug 1, 2025

AltaGas reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with a significant increase in earnings and EBITDA driven by robust performance in its Midstream and Utilities segments. The company achieved record LPG export volumes and secured long-term agreements with major partners, enhancing its global export capabilities and strengthening its market position. These developments indicate a positive impact on AltaGas’ operations and industry positioning, with potential benefits for stakeholders through increased capacity and strategic partnerships.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALA) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AltaGas stock, see the TSE:ALA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
BASF and AltaGas Forge Long-Term Butane Supply Agreement
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

BASF and AltaGas have signed a long-term agreement for the supply of butane, set to commence in 2027, through the Ridley Island Energy Export Facility in British Columbia. This partnership will diversify BASF’s cracker feedstock portfolio, enhancing its supply chain resilience and supporting its growth in Asia. For AltaGas, the agreement de-risks its export platform by adding BASF as a high-quality counterparty, reinforcing the strategic value of its west coast LPG export operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALA) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AltaGas stock, see the TSE:ALA Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
AltaGas to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 4, 2025

AltaGas Ltd. announced that it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 1, 2025, before the market opens. A conference call and webcast will follow to discuss the results and other corporate developments, highlighting the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALA) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AltaGas stock, see the TSE:ALA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
AltaGas Secures Expanded LPG Export Agreement with Keyera
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

AltaGas has announced a new long-term tolling agreement with Keyera Corp., which will see an additional 12,500 barrels per day of liquified petroleum gases flow through AltaGas’ west coast export facilities starting in 2028. This agreement, which builds on a previous contract, increases Keyera’s total LPG export capacity to 25,000 barrels per day, aimed at accessing premium markets in Asia. The deal underscores AltaGas’ strategic focus on market diversification and leveraging its global exports platform to mitigate tariff impacts and connect Canadian energy products to high-value global markets. Construction on the Ridley Island Energy Export Facility is progressing, with significant milestones achieved, further de-risking the project execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALA) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AltaGas stock, see the TSE:ALA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 11, 2025