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Superior Plus Corp. (TSE:SPB)
TSX:SPB
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Superior Plus
(TSX:SPB)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.50
â–¼(-2.99% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
The score is driven by solid 2025 cash flow and improved operating momentum, but is constrained by high leverage and a weak technical trend (price below major moving averages). Valuation is also a drag due to a very high P/E, while the earnings call was mixed with modest 2026 growth guidance but a downgraded multi-year outlook and delayed transformation benefits.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow in 2025 provides durable capacity to fund working capital, reinvest in logistics, service debt, and support targeted buybacks. Strong FCF improves resilience through seasonal cycles and gives management flexibility for strategic priorities.
Revenue rebound and profitability
A sharp revenue recovery and return to net profit indicate the core propane distribution model can re-achieve scale economics after downturns. This trend supports margin recovery, steadier cash conversion, and creates a more stable base for multi-year operational plans.
Distribution scale & operational execution
Expanded hubs, new commercial contracts and fleet digitization strengthen network advantages and service differentiation. Record CNG volumes and lower unit costs point to structural operational improvements that can sustain margins and support incremental growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
High and rising leverage
Elevated debt levels reduce financial flexibility and increase sensitivity to EBITDA shocks. High leverage limits the company's ability to invest or absorb commodity/seasonal swings, constrains optionality on buybacks vs. deleveraging, and raises refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.
Weakened multi-year growth outlook
Management’s lowered multi-year CAGR and delayed realization of transformation savings extend the timeline to meaningful margin expansion. Slower structural improvement compresses long-term earnings power, making execution and sustained cost discipline more critical to meet obligations.
CNG pricing and segment headwinds
Material CNG pricing pressure and near-term guidance for Certarus reduce consolidated EBITDA durability. Reliance on commodity-related margin pools exposes the company to structural pricing cycles, challenging margin sustainability until demand mix or pricing power improves.
Superior Plus (SPB) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.46B
Dividend Yield2.54%
Average Volume (3M)554.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.8
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth6.58%
EPS Growth9.33%
CountryCA
Employees4,261
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding217,281,400
10 Day Avg. Volume527,723
30 Day Avg. Volume554,972
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.45
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio5.34
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$7.80Price Target Upside16.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.59B
Superior Plus Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSuperior Plus Corp. engages in the energy distribution business. It operates through two segments, U.S. Propane Distribution and Canadian Propane Distribution. The U.S. Propane Distribution segment distributes and sells propane, heating oil, and other liquid fuels in the Northeast, Atlantic, the Southeast, the Midwest, and California. It also provides installation, maintenance, and repair services for propane and heating oil equipment. The Canadian Propane Distribution segment distributes and sells propane, and propane-consuming equipment; rents tanks, cylinders, and other equipment; and provides equipment supply, installation, and repair services. This segment offers its service in Canada and the United States. Superior General Partner Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. As of February 10, 2022, the company served approximately 780,000 customers The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneySuperior Plus generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of propane and heating oil to residential and commercial customers. The company operates a network of distribution centers and storage facilities that allow it to efficiently supply energy products. Additionally, Superior Plus earns income from its specialty chemicals division, which produces and sells a variety of chemical products used in different applications. The company also benefits from service agreements that provide recurring revenue from maintenance and installation services. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers enhance its market position and contribute to revenue stability.
Superior Plus Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: the company delivered modest consolidated EBITDA growth, materially improved per-share metrics via aggressive buybacks, reduced capex and costs, and achieved operational wins (record Certarus volumes, new hubs/contracts). However, significant headwinds remain — primarily CNG wellsite pricing pressure (a reported $40M impact), a downgraded multi-year growth outlook (3-year CAGR trimmed to ~2%), and execution challenges in propane delivery that delayed realization of transformation benefits (Superior Delivers timeline extended to three years). Management retains confidence in the long-term plan but acknowledges near-term revenue/EBITDA pressure and extended timelines.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Modest Consolidated EBITDA Growth
Full year adjusted EBITDA was $463.5M, up ~2% versus prior year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $161.9M, up 2% year-over-year.
Propane Segment Strength and Superior Delivers Contribution
North American propane adjusted EBITDA rose ~4% to $346.7M (U.S. Propane $246.3M, +5%; Canadian Propane $100.4M, +2%). Superior Delivers contributed $16.2M for the year and $11.2M in Q4, and management expects ~ $50M contribution in 2026 as the program progresses.
Per-Share and Cash Metrics Improved Significantly
Full year adjusted EBITDA per share $1.46 (+15%); adjusted net earnings per share $0.31 (+94%); free cash flow per share $0.87 (nearly doubled). Q4 per-share metrics also improved (Q4 adjusted EBITDA/share $0.55, +12%; Q4 FCF/share $0.37, +23%).
Share Repurchases and Capital Efficiency
Repurchased 19.6M shares (~8%) during the year and ~32M shares (~13%) since Nov 2024, supporting improved per-share metrics and reducing share count materially.
Certarus Volumes and Cost Reductions
Despite pricing headwinds, Certarus delivered record volumes in 2025 and achieved a 6% reduction in operating cost per MMBtu; Certarus also cut CapEx by ~50% (~$50M), supporting record free cash flow.
Lower Consolidated CapEx and Reduced Leverage
Consolidated CapEx was ~$140M (down ~26% vs 2024). Leverage ended 2025 at 4.0x, down ~0.1 turn year-over-year.
Operational Wins and New Business Development
Opened a Florida hub (21st hub), signed two new data center contracts (scaling toward ~30–40 trailers across those starts), and deploying 'smart trailers' on ~50% of fleet to improve visibility.
Negative Updates
CNG Pricing Pressure and Gross Margin Headwind
Wellsite pricing deterioration created roughly a $40M gross margin headwind in 2025. Certarus full-year adjusted EBITDA declined ~4% to $142.5M; Q4 CNG EBITDA was $34.3M, down 13% YoY.
Weakened Multi-Year Outlook
Revised multi-year outlook expects a 3-year EBITDA CAGR of ~2% (2024–2027), down from the prior ~8% target, reflecting lower CNG pricing and a longer timeline to realize Superior Delivers benefits.
Delay in Superior Delivers Timeline
Superior Delivers still targeted at $75M of annual benefits, but realization is now expected over a 3-year horizon (first full year of $75M benefits pushed to 2028) versus prior expectations of a faster timeline.
Execution Issues During Peak Winter Demand
Early versions of delivery optimization tools resulted in lower-than-optimal customer in-tank inventories entering Q4, complicating winter operations amid extreme weather and creating localized service challenges.
Near-Term Certarus EBITDA Guidance Weakness
Management guides Certarus 2026 adjusted EBITDA to decline 4%–9% (with the entire decline expected in Q1); Q1 2026 Certarus EBITDA expected to be flat vs Q4 2025 or down ~30%–35% vs Q1 2025.
Reduced Ancillary Revenues and Contract Normalization
Lower ancillary revenue from a Northeast utility contract (fewer sites) contributed to CNG near-term weakness and was largely reflected in 2026 guidance.
Capital Allocation and Preferred Share Redemption Risk
Company may shift some repurchase activity ($50M–$100M guidance range) toward debt reduction ahead of potential mid‑2027 redemption of $260M convertible preferred shares; redemption optionality and step-up coupon pose capital allocation uncertainty.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA to grow roughly 2% year-over-year, driven by propane growth of about 3–8% (assuming warmer weather in line with the 5‑year average) and a Superior Delivers contribution of ~US$50M in 2026 (up from ~US$16.2M in 2025), while Certarus (CNG) is expected to see adjusted EBITDA decline about 4–9% for the year (with the hit occurring in Q1 — Q1 EBITDA forecast flat to Q4‑25 or down ~30–35% vs Q1‑25, then growth in the next three quarters); 2026 capex (including lease additions) is ~US$160M (vs ~US$140M in 2025), year‑end 2025 leverage was 4.0x (management targets ~3.8x–3.5x toward 2027 depending on buybacks vs debt repayment), share repurchases may be reduced to ~US$50–100M in 2026 as capital shifts toward partly preparing to redeem the US$260M convertible preferred in mid‑2027 (conversion price ≈ CAD12; potential ~30M share dilution if not redeemed), the prior 3‑year EBITDA CAGR outlook was cut to ~2% (2024–2027) from ~8%, the US$75M Superior Delivers run‑rate is now expected to be fully realized in 2028, and the prior US$1.00–1.10 free cash flow target has been pushed out.Superior Plus Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash generation is strong (2025 operating cash flow ~$460M and free cash flow ~$300M) and 2025 showed a sharp revenue rebound with a return to positive net income (~$85M). Offsetting this, earnings have been volatile across years and the balance sheet is highly leveraged, with total debt rising materially in 2025 (~$2.70B vs. ~$1.87B in 2024).Income Statement
Revenue growth has been strong recently (2025 up ~39.8% after a 2024 decline), and profitability improved versus the 2022/2024 loss years, with 2025 returning to positive net income (~$85M). However, earnings have been volatile over the period (profits in 2020/2021/2023, losses in 2022/2024), and 2024 showed negative net margin despite positive operating profit, highlighting sensitivity to below-the-line items and/or cost pressures.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is a key constraint. Total debt increased materially in 2025 (~$2.70B) versus 2024 (~$1.87B), and historical debt-to-equity has been elevated (about 1.7x–2.1x in 2021–2024). Equity improved in 2025 (~$1.11B vs. ~$0.89B in 2024), but the capital structure still looks debt-heavy for the business, which can pressure resilience if profitability softens.48
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were solid in 2025 (~$460M and ~$300M), and free cash flow growth rebounded strongly in 2025 (up ~54%) after a weak 2024 (down ~67%). The main weakness is variability year-to-year (notably the 2024 dip), suggesting cash conversion can fluctuate with working capital and operating conditions.73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.44B | 2.27B | 2.53B | 2.52B | 1.88B |
| Gross Profit | 1.45B | 972.74M | 965.10M | 708.68M | 557.74M |
| EBITDA | 640.66M | 372.80M | 428.57M | 151.51M | 300.51M |
| Net Income | 84.96M | -35.03M | 38.85M | -83.84M | 143.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.92B | 3.69B | 5.17B | 4.48B | 3.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 32.62M | 60.38M | 48.30M | 58.40M | 81.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.70B | 1.87B | 2.48B | 2.15B | 1.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.46B | 2.54B | 3.40B | 3.02B | 2.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 885.80M | 1.43B | 1.11B | 983.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 299.58M | 113.70M | 349.80M | 131.40M | 126.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 459.57M | 274.10M | 550.00M | 248.70M | 232.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -132.60M | -142.10M | -467.10M | -632.10M | 172.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -317.32M | -144.70M | -99.70M | 410.90M | -399.60M |
Superior Plus Technical Analysis
Negative
6.70
Price Trends
7.18
Negative
7.36
Negative
7.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Positive
41.11
Neutral
22.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SPB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.13, below the 50-day MA of 7.18, and below the 200-day MA of 7.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SPB.
Superior Plus Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | C$14.54B | -188.74 | 9.01% | 2.99% | -0.68% | 49.61% | |
58 Neutral | C$13.04B | 97.60 | 8.84% | 4.33% | -0.94% | 25.64% | |
55 Neutral | C$5.36B | -37.36 | -9.02% | 1.46% | -11.00% | -227.07% | |
54 Neutral | C$1.46B | 18.82 | 2.49% | 2.54% | 6.58% | 9.33% | |
54 Neutral | C$6.60B | 42.21 | 9.32% | 3.62% | 7.75% | 11.25% | |
54 Neutral | C$7.30B | 26.51 | 2.04% | 4.32% | -4.72% | 96.98% |
* Utilities Sector Average
TSE:SPB
Superior Plus
6.70
0.10
1.56%
TSE:TA
TransAlta
18.07
4.20
30.25%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
46.72
11.42
32.36%
TSE:ACO.X
ATCO Ltd Cl I NV
65.58
19.18
41.33%
TSE:CU
Canadian Utilities A
47.95
14.34
42.68%
TSE:AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities
9.52
2.84
42.45%
Superior Plus Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Superior Plus Maintains Payout With Q1 2026 Dividend Declaration
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Superior Plus Corp. has declared a quarterly dividend of CAD $0.045 per common share for the first quarter of 2026, payable on April 15 to shareholders of record as of March 31. The announcement maintains the company’s annualized cash dividend rate at CAD $0.18 per share and confirms the payout will be treated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes.
The decision underscores Superior Plus’s ongoing capital-return approach while it continues to focus on distributing lower-carbon fuels across North America. For income-focused investors, the move signals stability in the company’s shareholder payout policy amid its efforts to support the energy transition and help customers lower operating costs and improve environmental performance.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SPB) stock is a Buy with a C$10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Superior Plus stock, see the TSE:SPB Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Superior Plus Sets February Dates for 2025 Year-End Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
Superior Plus Corp. announced it will release its 2025 fourth quarter and year-end financial results after markets close on February 19, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast with investors and analysts on the morning of February 20, 2026. The scheduled disclosure and investor engagement underscore the company’s efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders as it advances its strategy in low-carbon fuel distribution across North America.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SPB) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Superior Plus stock, see the TSE:SPB Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.