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Northland Power (TSE:NPI)
TSX:NPI

Northland Power (NPI) AI Stock Analysis

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Northland Power

(TSX:NPI)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$23.00
▲( 13.64% Upside)
Northland Power benefits from strong financial performance and strategic project completions. However, high leverage and recent financial challenges due to low wind resources temper the outlook, despite positive technical indicators and a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Financial Outlook
EBITDA growth is expected to accelerate next year with new projects coming online and a permanent CEO appointment anticipated soon.
Growth Opportunities
NPI is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the significant growth expected in the offshore wind market.
Valuation
Analyst rates NPI shares Outperform due to the under-appreciated growth pipeline and attractive relative valuation.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
NPI reported Q3/24 adjusted EBITDA below expectations, primarily due to issues in Offshore Wind and Natural Gas performance.
Market Perception
Given the ~7% adj. EBITDA miss and less positive directional tone on the 2024 guide, shares could trade heavy in the near term.
Performance Issues
Lower offshore wind speeds and curtailments at the German offshore wind facilities have led to reduced 4Q estimates.

Northland Power (NPI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthland Power Inc., an independent power producer, develops, builds, owns, and operates clean and green power projects in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower, as well as clean-burning natural gas and biomass for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements. It owned or had an economic interest in 3.2 gigawatts of operating generating capacity. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthland Power generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of electricity from its renewable and clean energy assets. The company's key revenue streams include long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utility companies and other large-scale purchasers, which provide stable and predictable cash flows. Additionally, Northland Power benefits from government incentives and subsidies for renewable energy projects, particularly in jurisdictions with strong support for green energy initiatives. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its project portfolio and enhance its market presence, further contributing to its revenue growth.

Northland Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Northland Power showcases a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability. High leverage is a concern, but effective cash flow management supports operations and growth initiatives. The improvement in net income and free cash flow suggests a positive trajectory, though attention to debt levels is important.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Northland Power demonstrates solid revenue growth with a 5.1% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a recovery in net income from a loss in 2023 to a profit in 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 11.6% due to high interest and tax expenses, suggesting room for profitability improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.72, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed well. However, the company has maintained solid equity growth over the years, and the equity ratio of 30.8% suggests a reasonable proportion of assets financed by shareholders' equity. The return on equity improved to 6.5% in 2024, which is a positive sign.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Northland Power's cash flow statement reflects a robust operating cash flow, which increased significantly from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow growth of 38.9% is impressive, indicating effective capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, showing strong cash generation relative to reported profits.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.35B2.23B2.45B2.09B2.06B
Gross Profit
1.01B1.61B2.18B1.88B1.86B
EBIT
812.89M741.16M1.05B808.65M900.21M
EBITDA
1.59B1.26B2.22B1.41B1.54B
Net Income Common Stockholders
271.82M-175.19M827.73M269.88M381.08M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
613.32M813.50M1.30B673.69M434.99M
Total Assets
13.60B13.63B14.22B12.88B11.40B
Total Debt
7.20B7.20B7.17B7.63B7.59B
Net Debt
6.59B6.55B5.87B6.96B7.15B
Total Liabilities
9.05B9.14B9.50B9.91B9.40B
Stockholders Equity
4.19B4.19B4.39B2.76B1.58B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
476.75M343.05M1.31B1.14B1.10B
Operating Cash Flow
1.03B785.21M1.83B1.61B1.32B
Investing Cash Flow
-448.81M-1.17B-629.68M-1.03B-839.27M
Financing Cash Flow
-720.25M-262.04M-604.84M-225.68M-389.53M

Northland Power Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.24
Price Trends
50DMA
19.12
Positive
100DMA
18.46
Positive
200DMA
19.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.48
Negative
RSI
62.31
Neutral
STOCH
69.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.41, above the 50-day MA of 19.12, and above the 200-day MA of 19.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NPI.

Northland Power Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSNPI
72
Outperform
$5.29B20.326.08%5.91%-5.33%
64
Neutral
$8.54B10.244.67%4.36%4.12%-13.19%
BEBEP
$15.59B-5.97%6.09%
TSINE
73
Outperform
C$2.78B69.604.20%2.63%0.97%
TSPIF
66
Neutral
C$247.31M59.81-4.70%7.09%-1.45%-210.16%
TSBLX
63
Neutral
C$3.16B287.200.67%2.15%-16.63%-87.78%
AQAQN
$4.27B5.54%5.48%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:NPI
Northland Power
20.24
-2.21
-9.84%
BEP
Brookfield Renewable Partners
23.56
-2.64
-10.08%
TSE:BLX
Boralex Inc Cl A
30.73
-1.90
-5.82%
TSE:INE
Innergex Renewable Energy
13.67
4.93
56.41%
TSE:PIF
Polaris Infrastructure
11.74
-0.76
-6.08%
AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities
5.56
-0.46
-7.64%

Northland Power Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.53%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as the completion of the Oneida Battery Storage Project and progress on offshore wind projects, which demonstrate Northland Power's operational capabilities and strategic growth. However, financial performance was impacted by historically low offshore wind resources, leading to decreased EBITDA and free cash flow. The company maintains a strong financial position and remains on track to meet its financial guidance, balancing the challenges with strategic achievements.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Completion of Oneida Battery Storage Project
Completed ahead of schedule and under budget. It's the largest energy storage project in Canada, generating revenue and supporting over 180 jobs during peak construction.
Progress on Offshore Wind Projects
Hai Long and Baltic Power projects are on track, with significant milestones achieved including turbine installations and foundation completions. Total investment for these projects is approximately $15 billion.
Recognition for Safety Innovation
EBSA utility in Colombia received the CCS Award for Innovation in Safety, demonstrating Northland Power's commitment to safety and innovation.
Strong Financial Position
Northland Power maintains a strong balance sheet with $1.1 billion of available corporate liquidity, supporting its ability to pursue growth opportunities.
Maintained Financial Guidance
Despite challenges, Northland Power is on track to meet its financial guidance set earlier this year.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 20% compared to the same quarter in 2024, primarily due to historically low offshore wind resources in the North Sea.
Decline in Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow for Q1 was $157 million, 30% lower than the same quarter last year, with per share free cash flow decreasing from $0.88 to $0.60.
Impact of Low Offshore Winds
The low wind resource was the lowest seen across Northland's time invested in European offshore wind assets, impacting financial performance.
Company Guidance
During the Northland Power Conference Call held on May 14, 2025, the management provided guidance on the company's operations and financial performance for the first quarter of 2025. Christine Healy, President and CEO, highlighted the successful completion of the Oneida Battery Storage project, which was finished ahead of schedule and under budget, and marked as Canada's largest energy storage project. The company also advanced its offshore wind projects, Hai Long and Baltic Power, with a combined investment of approximately $15 billion and 2.2 gigawatts of capacity. Despite a significant 20% decrease in adjusted EBITDA to $361 million, primarily due to historically low offshore wind resources, the company maintained robust operational performance with a 95% commercial availability rate. Free cash flow for the quarter was $157 million, representing a 30% decline from the previous year. The management reiterated their commitment to meeting the financial guidance set earlier in the year, emphasizing a strong balance sheet with $1.1 billion in available corporate liquidity. Northland Power is actively pursuing growth through a diversified portfolio, including new battery storage projects and participating in procurement processes, while remaining resilient to macroeconomic challenges such as U.S. tariffs.

Northland Power Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Northland Power’s 2025 AGM: Director Elections and Auditor Appointment
Positive
May 21, 2025

Northland Power held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all ten director nominees proposed by management were elected, and Ernst & Young LLP was appointed as the independent auditor. The meeting also included a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation, which was accepted by a significant majority. This meeting reflects Northland’s ongoing commitment to strong governance and strategic oversight, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence in the company’s leadership and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Achieves Key Milestones in Q1 2025
Positive
May 14, 2025

Northland Power has reported significant progress in its construction projects for the first quarter of 2025, including the early and under-budget completion of the Oneida energy storage project and ongoing advancements in the Hai Long and Baltic Power offshore wind projects. Despite challenging wind conditions in Europe, Northland’s diversified portfolio has demonstrated resilience, with strong performance in North American operations. The company has also seen changes in its executive leadership, with Christine Healy appointed as President and CEO, and Jeff Hart as CFO, positioning Northland to advance its strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Launches Canada’s Largest Battery Storage Facility
Positive
May 7, 2025

Northland Power has announced the commencement of commercial operations at the Oneida Energy Storage Project, Canada’s largest battery storage facility, which was completed ahead of schedule and under budget. This milestone positions Northland as a leader in the battery storage market, enhancing grid stability in Ontario and providing long-term revenue through a 20-year capacity contract. The project, valued at approximately $700 million, is a joint venture with various partners, including First Nations groups, and underscores Northland’s capability to execute large-scale energy projects effectively.

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Highlights 2024 Sustainability Achievements
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant achievements in sustainability and energy transition. The report showcases progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, advancing renewable projects, and maintaining strong sustainability ratings. These efforts underscore Northland’s commitment to responsible energy production and its role in the global shift towards sustainable energy solutions.

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Advances Sustainability Goals in 2024 Report
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power released its 2024 Sustainability Report, showcasing significant progress in sustainability achievements and its commitment to the global energy transition. The report highlights key milestones in major projects such as Hai Long, Baltic Power, and Oneida, and emphasizes the company’s efforts in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and maintaining strong sustainability ratings. The achievements underscore Northland’s dedication to delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy worldwide, reinforcing its long-term sustainability strategy.

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Advances Sustainability Goals in 2024 Report
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power’s 2024 Sustainability Report highlights significant progress in its sustainability goals, emphasizing its commitment to people, communities, and the planet. The report showcases achievements such as a 30% reduction in GHG emissions intensity since 2019, the generation of 11,046 GWh of electricity globally, and advancements in renewable projects under construction. These milestones reinforce Northland’s long-term sustainability strategy and its role in the global energy transition, providing safe, reliable, and affordable energy worldwide.

Business Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Highlights 2024 Sustainability Achievements
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Northland Power released its 2024 Sustainability Report, showcasing significant progress in sustainability achievements. The report highlights milestones in their Hai Long, Baltic Power, and Oneida projects, and emphasizes their commitment to sustainable practices and global partnerships. In 2024, Northland generated 11,046 GWh of electricity globally, achieved a 30% reduction in GHG emissions intensity since 2019, and advanced 2.4 GW of renewable projects under construction. These efforts reinforce Northland’s long-term sustainability strategy and commitment to responsible energy solutions.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Appoints Jeff Hart as New CFO
Positive
Apr 21, 2025

Northland Power has announced the appointment of Jeff Hart as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective May 1, 2025. Hart, who has extensive experience in financial leadership and capital markets from his previous roles at Husky Energy and Cenovus Energy, is expected to play a crucial role in advancing Northland’s financial growth and strategic objectives. The appointment reflects Northland’s commitment to strengthening its industry position and delivering long-term shareholder value. Additionally, Adam Beaumont, who served as Interim CFO, will transition to the role of Senior Vice President, Capital Markets, continuing to contribute to the company’s success.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Northland Power Announces Leadership Transition in Board Chair
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

Northland Power announced a succession plan for its Board Chair, with John Brace stepping down after a long tenure and Ian Pearce poised to take over if elected at the upcoming AGM. This transition marks a significant leadership change as Northland continues its growth and innovation under the new leadership of Christine Healy as President and CEO, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to maintaining its position as a global leader in the energy sector.

Financial Disclosures
Northland Power to Release Q1 2025 Financial Results and Host Investor Call
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

Northland Power announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 13, 2025, with an investor call scheduled for May 14, 2025. This announcement is part of Northland’s ongoing efforts to keep stakeholders informed about its financial performance and operational progress, reflecting its commitment to transparency and engagement with investors.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northland Power Secures Financing for Alberta’s Largest Battery Storage Project
Positive
Apr 9, 2025

Northland Power has secured financing for its Jurassic Battery Energy Storage System project in Alberta, marking its second battery storage financing. The 80 MW, 2-hour battery storage system will be Alberta’s largest once completed and is expected to enhance the stability and reliability of the province’s energy grid. With a project cost of approximately $120 million, it is anticipated to contribute about $15 million of annual Adjusted EBITDA upon reaching commercial operation in late 2026. This project underscores Northland’s commitment to expanding its footprint in Canada and diversifying its asset base, highlighting the growth potential of its multi-technology approach.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Northland Power Reports Strong Q4 2024 Results and Outlines 2025 Outlook
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

Northland Power reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, achieving the high end of its financial guidance. The company continues to advance its major construction projects, including Baltic Power, Hai Long, and Oneida, and has completed an upgrade to the Thorold natural gas facility. With a robust balance sheet and significant liquidity, Northland Power is well-positioned for growth. The company has issued its 2025 financial outlook, anticipating an increase in Adjusted EBITDA and changes to its Dividend Reinvestment Plan.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.