Northland Power (NPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.92B
• Dividend Yield: 5.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 716.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: -5.33%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,150
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 261,502,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 797,151
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 716,506
• PEG Ratio: -5.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $26.40
• Price Target Upside: 16.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$25.00 ▲(10.42%Upside)

Northland Power's strong operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives are offset by challenges in revenue growth and potential overvaluation. The stock benefits from successful project completions and a robust dividend yield, but caution is advised due to its nearing overbought technical indicators.

Positive Factors

Financial Outlook

EBITDA growth is expected to accelerate next year with new projects coming online and a permanent CEO appointment anticipated soon.

Growth Opportunities

NPI is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the significant growth expected in the offshore wind market.

Valuation

Analyst rates NPI shares Outperform due to the under-appreciated growth pipeline and attractive relative valuation.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

NPI reported Q3/24 adjusted EBITDA below expectations, primarily due to issues in Offshore Wind and Natural Gas performance.

Market Perception

Given the ~7% adj. EBITDA miss and less positive directional tone on the 2024 guide, shares could trade heavy in the near term.

Performance Issues

Lower offshore wind speeds and curtailments at the German offshore wind facilities have led to reduced 4Q estimates.

Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northland Power Inc., an independent power producer, develops, builds, owns, and operates clean and green power projects in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower, as well as clean-burning natural gas and biomass for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements. It owned or had an economic interest in 3.2 gigawatts of operating generating capacity. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Northland Power generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced from its diverse portfolio of renewable and clean energy assets. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utility companies and governments, ensuring a stable and predictable cash flow. These agreements often include fixed pricing terms, which provide insulation against market volatility. Northland Power also leverages strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its asset base and enhance its operational capabilities. Additionally, the company may receive government subsidies and incentives designed to promote clean energy production, further supporting its revenue streams.

Northland Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northland Power shows strong operational efficiency and cash generation capabilities, with a high gross profit margin and robust cash flows. However, challenges in maintaining revenue growth and moderate leverage are notable.

Income Statement

Northland Power's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is high at 71.25%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is moderate at 11.74%. The revenue has slightly decreased from the previous period, impacting overall growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with an equity ratio of 30.99%, suggesting a balanced asset structure. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67 shows moderate leverage, which is typical for the industry. Return on equity is 6.02%, highlighting moderate profitability relative to shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates robust free cash flow growth of 64.80% in TTM, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 4.37, suggesting excellent cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.99, underscoring solid free cash flow relative to net earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.35B	2.23B	2.45B	2.09B	2.06B
Gross Profit	1.01B	1.61B	2.18B	1.88B	1.86B
EBITDA	1.59B	1.26B	2.22B	1.41B	1.54B
Net Income	271.82M	-175.19M	827.73M	269.88M	381.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.60B	13.63B	14.22B	12.88B	11.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	613.32M	813.50M	1.30B	673.69M	434.99M
Total Debt	7.20B	7.20B	7.17B	7.63B	7.59B
Total Liabilities	9.05B	9.14B	9.50B	9.91B	9.40B
Stockholders Equity	4.19B	4.19B	4.39B	2.76B	1.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	476.75M	343.05M	1.31B	1.14B	1.10B
Operating Cash Flow	1.03B	785.21M	1.83B	1.61B	1.32B
Investing Cash Flow	-448.81M	-1.17B	-629.68M	-1.03B	-839.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-720.25M	-262.04M	-604.84M	-225.68M	-389.53M

Northland Power Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 22.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.88, above the 50-day MA of 21.74, and above the 200-day MA of 19.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NPI.

Northland Power Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NPI	73 Outperform	$5.92B	22.73	6.08%	5.43%	-5.33%	―
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.54B	18.00	7.11%	3.56%	4.38%	9.89%
BEP	―	$18.25B	―	-5.97%	5.28%	―	―
INE	72 Outperform	$2.79B	69.96	4.20%	2.62%	0.97%	―
PIF	62 Neutral	C$261.45M	59.81	-4.34%	6.73%	4.98%	-244.98%
BLX	56 Neutral	C$3.24B	294.58	0.67%	2.10%	-16.63%	-87.78%
AQN	―	$4.53B	―	5.54%	4.41%	―	―

Northland Power Corporate Events

Northland Power to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results

Northland Power announced that it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 13, 2025, after market close. The company will host an investor conference call and webcast on August 14, 2025, to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with an opportunity to engage with management and gain insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power’s Hai Long Project Achieves First Power Milestone

Northland Power has achieved a significant milestone with the first power generation from its Hai Long Offshore Wind Project in Taiwan, connecting to Taipower’s grid ahead of schedule. This achievement marks substantial progress in the project, which is expected to be fully operational by 2027, contributing to Taiwan’s renewable energy goals and providing clean electricity to over one million homes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power’s 2025 AGM: Director Elections and Auditor Appointment

Northland Power held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all ten director nominees proposed by management were elected, and Ernst & Young LLP was appointed as the independent auditor. The meeting also included a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation, which was accepted by a significant majority. This meeting reflects Northland’s ongoing commitment to strong governance and strategic oversight, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence in the company’s leadership and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power Achieves Key Milestones in Q1 2025

Northland Power has reported significant progress in its construction projects for the first quarter of 2025, including the early and under-budget completion of the Oneida energy storage project and ongoing advancements in the Hai Long and Baltic Power offshore wind projects. Despite challenging wind conditions in Europe, Northland’s diversified portfolio has demonstrated resilience, with strong performance in North American operations. The company has also seen changes in its executive leadership, with Christine Healy appointed as President and CEO, and Jeff Hart as CFO, positioning Northland to advance its strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power Launches Canada’s Largest Battery Storage Facility

Northland Power has announced the commencement of commercial operations at the Oneida Energy Storage Project, Canada’s largest battery storage facility, which was completed ahead of schedule and under budget. This milestone positions Northland as a leader in the battery storage market, enhancing grid stability in Ontario and providing long-term revenue through a 20-year capacity contract. The project, valued at approximately $700 million, is a joint venture with various partners, including First Nations groups, and underscores Northland’s capability to execute large-scale energy projects effectively.