Northland Power (NPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$4.51B
• Dividend Yield: 6.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.21M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: -4.86%
• EPS Growth: -86.64%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,150
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): -1.58
• Shares Outstanding: 261,502,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,662,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,211,048
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$22.57
• Price Target Upside: 30.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: C$17.00 ▼(-1.51% Downside)

Northland Power's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and technical analysis. While the company shows strong cash flow generation and a high gross profit margin, challenges in profitability and high leverage are significant concerns. The technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, further impacting the score. The attractive dividend yield provides some support, but the negative P/E ratio due to net losses is a valuation concern.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow growth indicates robust operational efficiency and provides the company with flexibility to invest in new projects and manage debt.

Stable Revenue Streams

Long-term PPAs ensure stable and predictable revenue, reducing exposure to market volatility and supporting long-term financial planning.

High Gross Profit Margin

A high gross profit margin reflects effective cost control and pricing power, which can sustain profitability even in challenging market conditions.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Declining Profitability

Declining profitability suggests operational inefficiencies and could hinder the company's ability to generate sufficient returns for shareholders.

Negative Return on Equity

Negative return on equity indicates that the company is not generating sufficient profit from its equity base, which could deter potential investors.

Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northland Power Inc. (NPI) is a Canadian independent power producer that focuses on developing, constructing, and operating sustainable energy projects. The company primarily operates in the renewable energy sector, with a strong emphasis on offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, and natural gas-fired power generation. NPI's core services include the development of energy projects, power generation, and the sale of electricity and thermal energy to utilities and other customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Northland Power generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced by its renewable energy facilities. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with government entities and utilities, which provide a stable revenue stream by locking in prices for the electricity generated over extended periods. Key revenue streams include the sale of energy from its operational assets, capacity payments for being available to supply electricity when needed, and revenue from thermal energy sales. Additionally, NPI benefits from partnerships with other firms and governments in developing and operating its projects, which can enhance its market position and provide funding opportunities for new developments. Regulatory incentives and renewable energy credits also play a significant role in supporting the company's financial performance.

Northland Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northland Power shows strong cash flow generation and gross profit margins, but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and profitability. The high debt-to-equity ratio indicates leverage risks, though improvements in equity position are positive.

Income Statement

Northland Power's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -8.86%. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 71.24% in the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is negative in the TTM, reflecting recent profitability challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating EBIT and EBITDA margins, with a notable decline in EBIT margin from 2022 to the TTM period. Overall, while the company has strong gross margins, the recent decline in revenue and net income poses concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, the company has improved its equity ratio over time, suggesting a strengthening balance sheet. Return on equity has decreased in the TTM, reflecting recent profitability issues. Despite the high leverage, the company's ability to maintain a stable equity ratio is a positive sign of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Northland Power's cash flow statement shows strong free cash flow growth of 63.48% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong, highlighting effective cash management. Despite recent profitability challenges, the company's cash flow metrics demonstrate resilience and potential for future growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.30B	2.35B	2.24B	2.45B	2.09B	2.06B
Gross Profit	1.43B	2.35B	1.62B	1.83B	1.55B	1.56B
EBITDA	811.25M	1.53B	1.38B	1.65B	1.41B	1.42B
Net Income	-280.29M	271.82M	-175.19M	827.73M	189.56M	381.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.42B	13.60B	13.63B	14.22B	12.88B	11.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	900.56M	613.32M	740.24M	1.46B	673.81M	434.99M
Total Debt	7.28B	7.44B	7.44B	7.17B	8.14B	8.25B
Total Liabilities	9.17B	9.05B	9.14B	9.50B	9.91B	9.40B
Stockholders Equity	3.92B	4.19B	4.19B	4.39B	2.76B	1.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.14B	130.97M	18.26M	1.04B	858.02M	785.95M
Operating Cash Flow	1.27B	683.18M	459.37M	1.50B	1.33B	1.01B
Investing Cash Flow	10.64M	-468.77M	-1.21B	-677.09M	-975.41M	-935.93M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.01B	-372.66M	111.42M	-271.34M	-20.26M	-89.80M

Northland Power Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.09, below the 50-day MA of 20.80, and below the 200-day MA of 20.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NPI.

Northland Power Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INE	72 Outperform	―	―	―	―	0.97%	―
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
PIF	58 Neutral	C$244.29M	-15.08	-4.69%	7.22%	8.26%	-267.17%
BEP.UN	56 Neutral	$25.32B	-30.32	-5.58%	5.60%	14.78%	-9.37%
AQN	54 Neutral	C$6.55B	-155.94	2.04%	4.32%	-4.72%	96.98%
NPI	53 Neutral	C$4.51B	-15.86	-7.06%	6.95%	-4.86%	-86.64%
BLX	47 Neutral	C$2.59B	-112.77	-1.47%	2.61%	-11.91%	-132.41%

Northland Power Corporate Events

Northland Power Expands in Poland with Battery Storage Acquisition

Northland Power has acquired two late-stage pre-construction battery energy storage system projects in Poland, totaling 300 MW / 1.2 GWh, from Greenvolt Power Group. This acquisition enhances Northland’s presence in Poland, supporting the country’s transition from coal-based power to renewable energy, and aligns with Northland’s strategic growth ambitions. The projects, Mieczysławów and Kamionka, are expected to begin construction in 2026 with a total cost of €200 million, and will be among the first battery storage facilities in Poland, contributing to a reliable, lower-carbon energy system.

Northland Power Unveils Strategic 2030 Growth Plan and Market Expansion Initiatives

Northland Power has announced a strategic update and 2030 outlook, aiming to double its gross operating capacity to 7 GW by 2030 and implement a cost optimization program targeting over $50 million in annual savings by 2028. The company is restructuring into two regional hubs to streamline operations and enhance investment decisions, while also increasing project return thresholds and targeting a 10% total shareholder return. Recent acquisitions, such as battery storage projects in Poland, and a new Power Purchase Agreement for its Nordsee One offshore wind farm, highlight Northland’s efforts to strengthen its market position and expand its renewable energy capabilities.

Northland Power Secures 5-Year PPA with Shell for Nordsee One Wind Farm

Northland Power has signed a five-year Power Purchase Agreement with Shell Energy Europe for one-third of the production from its Nordsee One offshore wind farm, located in the North Sea. This agreement, starting in June 2027, aligns with Shell’s energy transition goals and underscores Northland’s commitment to delivering renewable energy in Europe. The deal is significant as it secures a stable revenue stream for Northland and strengthens its position in the renewable energy market, particularly as the German Renewable Energy Sources Act regime steps down in 2027.

Northland Power Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Updates

Northland Power reported strong third-quarter results for 2025, with a 96% availability rate and progress in its offshore wind projects in Europe. The company is advancing its Baltic Power and Hai Long offshore wind projects, although the commissioning of turbines at Hai Long has been slower than expected, potentially impacting pre-completion revenues in 2026. Northland’s board has adjusted the annual dividend to $0.72 per share to enhance financial flexibility for growth, while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet. The company is committed to delivering long-term value for shareholders and will present its strategic outlook at the upcoming Investor Day.

Northland Power to Release Q3 2025 Financial Results and Host Investor Call

Northland Power announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 12, 2025, followed by an investor conference call and webcast on November 13, 2025. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Northland Power Announces 2025 Investor Day

Northland Power announced it will host its 2025 Investor Day in Toronto on November 20, 2025, where the company’s leadership will present an overview of its performance, growth strategy, and updates on construction projects. The event will be available in a hybrid format, allowing both in-person and virtual attendance, with pre-registration required for participation. This event underscores Northland Power’s commitment to transparency and engagement with the investment community, potentially influencing investor confidence and market positioning.