Northland Power (TSE:NPI)
TSX:NPI
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Northland Power
(TSX:NPI)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$24.50
▲(10.31% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven by solid operating profitability and a big step-up in 2025 cash generation, but is held back by high leverage and volatile bottom-line results (including a 2025 net loss). Technicals are constructive with strong momentum, though indicators are overbought. The earnings outlook suggests EBITDA growth, but lower guided 2026 free cash flow per share and major-project execution/funding timing risks temper the overall view.
Positive Factors
High operating and EBITDA margins
Sustained high operating (≈32%) and EBITDA (≈62%) margins in 2025 indicate efficient asset operations and favorable contract exposure. Robust margins support project-level cash generation, underpin returns on new builds, and provide a durable earnings cushion against resource variability and non-operating shocks.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt around 1.6–1.8x equity (≈1.77 in 2025) leaves Northland highly leveraged for a capital‑intensive renewables operator. Elevated leverage raises interest and refinancing exposure, limits strategic flexibility, and magnifies the impact of project delays or weaker wholesale prices on shareholder returns and investment capacity.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High operating and EBITDA margins
Sustained high operating (≈32%) and EBITDA (≈62%) margins in 2025 indicate efficient asset operations and favorable contract exposure. Robust margins support project-level cash generation, underpin returns on new builds, and provide a durable earnings cushion against resource variability and non-operating shocks.
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Northland Power (NPI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$6.16B
Dividend Yield6.8%
Average Volume (3M)938.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth3.78%
EPS Growth-162.59%
CountryCA
Employees1,150
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding261,502,040
10 Day Avg. Volume884,806
30 Day Avg. Volume938,201
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.92
P/FCF Ratio4.78
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$25.33Price Target Upside14.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.54B
Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northland Power Inc., an independent power producer, develops, builds, owns, and operates clean and green power projects in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as wind, so...
How the Company Makes Money
Northland Power makes money primarily by generating electricity from its power plants and selling that electricity under contractual and market-based arrangements. Key revenue streams include: (1) Electricity sales from renewable and thermal facil...
Northland Power Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of strong operational and near-term financial performance (notably an excellent Q4, delivery of adjusted EBITDA guidance, clear project milestones, and robust 2026 EBITDA guidance) alongside several significant near-term challenges (a material noncash impairment at Nordsee One, slower-than-expected commissioning at Hai Long with a potential $150–$200 million funding timing gap, and lower 2026 expected free cash flow per share driven by one-time items and higher financing costs). Management emphasized execution discipline, liquidity (> $900M) and strategic positioning (capacity growth to 7 GW by 2030, a minimum 12% return threshold, and cost-savings targets), but results and outlook remain dependent on timely completion and commissioning of major offshore projects and on managing debt/cash timing.Positive Updates
Strong Fourth Quarter Financial Performance
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $390 million, a 25% increase year-over-year; Q4 net income of $290 million versus $150 million in Q4 2024 (≈+93%); Q4 free cash flow per share $0.46 versus $0.31 in 2024 (≈+48%). Production in Q4 was ~21% higher than the same quarter last year, supported by 96% operating availability and record generation from German offshore wind assets.
Negative Updates
Nordsee One Noncash Impairment and Full-Year Net Loss
Recorded a noncash impairment for Nordsee One in Q3 2025 leading to a full-year net loss of $108 million versus net income of $371 million in 2024, a substantial swing driven by the impairment.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fourth Quarter Financial Performance
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $390 million, a 25% increase year-over-year; Q4 net income of $290 million versus $150 million in Q4 2024 (≈+93%); Q4 free cash flow per share $0.46 versus $0.31 in 2024 (≈+48%). Production in Q4 was ~21% higher than the same quarter last year, supported by 96% operating availability and record generation from German offshore wind assets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Northland guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of C$1.45–1.65 billion (about +25% vs C$1.25B in 2025) and free cash flow of C$1.05–1.25 per share (vs C$1.46 in 2025), noting 2025 included onetime items of ~C$0.22/share and that Baltic Power adds roughly C$0.20/share; the company assumes ~C$50M of development spend in 2026, has >C$900M of available liquidity, and reports Hai Long, Baltic Power and Jurassic BESS on track for commercial operation in 2027, H2‑2026 and 2026 respectively (Hai Long and Baltic Power had <C$4B of remaining capex as at Dec. 31); management warned slower Hai Long commissioning could create a C$150–200M equity funding need for pre‑completion revenue timing, reaffirmed targets including $50M annual cost savings by 2028 and a minimum 12% project return threshold, and cited strong operating metrics (96% availability, Q4 adjusted EBITDA C$390M, Q4 FCF/share C$0.46, Q4 net income C$290M).Northland Power Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
49
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.43B | 2.35B | 2.24B | 2.45B | 2.09B |
| Gross Profit | 968.13M | 2.35B | 1.62B | 1.83B | 1.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.53B | 1.38B | 1.65B | 1.41B |
| Net Income | -163.25M | 271.82M | -175.19M | 827.73M | 189.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.24B | 13.60B | 13.63B | 14.22B | 12.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 678.90M | 613.32M | 740.24M | 1.46B | 673.81M |
| Total Debt | 7.18B | 7.44B | 7.44B | 7.17B | 8.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.81B | 9.05B | 9.14B | 9.50B | 9.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.06B | 4.19B | 4.19B | 4.39B | 2.76B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 976.54M | 130.97M | 18.26M | 1.04B | 858.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.11B | 683.18M | 459.37M | 1.50B | 1.33B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -94.18M | -468.77M | -1.21B | -677.09M | -975.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.01B | -372.66M | 111.42M | -271.34M | -20.26M |
Northland Power Technical Analysis
Neutral
22.21
Price Trends
21.65
Positive
19.73
Positive
21.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.41
Positive
42.48
Neutral
7.63
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.23, above the 50-day MA of 21.65, and above the 200-day MA of 21.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NPI.
Northland Power Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | C$269.54M | -64.76 | -1.09% | 7.11% | 8.43% | -208.08% | |
61 Neutral | C$6.16B | -28.57 | -3.92% | 6.80% | 3.78% | -162.59% | |
58 Neutral | C$31.95B | -400.32 | 2.67% | 5.56% | 16.73% | 68.44% | |
51 Neutral | C$6.66B | 25.55 | 3.88% | 4.32% | -0.44% | ― | |
46 Neutral | C$3.78B | 422.17 | 0.45% | 2.62% | -0.47% | -80.56% | |
46 Neutral | C$14.25M | -5.14 | -69.20% | ― | -35.26% | -811.11% |
* Utilities Sector Average
TSE:NPI
Northland Power
23.57
5.51
30.49%
TSE:BEP.UN
Brookfield Renewable Partners
46.70
16.40
54.13%
TSE:BLX
Boralex Inc Cl A
36.77
6.31
20.71%
TSE:REVV
ReVolve Renewable Power Corp
0.17
-0.04
-19.05%
TSE:PIF
Polaris Infrastructure
12.90
1.84
16.59%
TSE:AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities
8.66
1.59
22.56%
Northland Power Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Northland Power Adds Former Brookfield CFO Bahir Manios to Board
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Northland Power Inc. has appointed Bahir Manios to its Board of Directors, effective March 25, 2026, increasing the board size from ten to eleven members and adding deep North American capital markets expertise. Manios, co-founder of Genesis Finan...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Northland Power Posts Solid 2025 Results and Sharpens Growth Strategy to 2030
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Northland Power reported 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion, in line with guidance, and free cash flow of $1.46 per share, above expectations, supported by record offshore wind output in Germany and 96% fleet availability. The company issued 20...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Northland Power Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results and Earnings Call
Neutral
Jan 27, 2026
Northland Power said it will publish its fourth-quarter 2025 operating and financial results after the market close on February 25, 2026, and will host an earnings conference call and webcast the following morning, February 26, 2026, including a q...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.