Northland Power (NPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.87B
• Dividend Yield: 5.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 715.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: -8.39%
• EPS Growth: -180.67%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,150
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 261,502,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 713,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 715,783
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.41
• 1Y Price Target: $27.58
• Price Target Upside: 22.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: C$23.50 ▲(4.77% Upside)

Northland Power's overall score is driven by strong cash flow generation and successful project completions, but is tempered by declining revenue, profitability challenges, and a high debt-to-equity ratio. The negative P/E ratio and revised financial guidance further weigh on the score, despite a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Financial Outlook

EBITDA growth is expected to accelerate next year with new projects coming online and a permanent CEO appointment anticipated soon.

Growth Opportunities

NPI is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the significant growth expected in the offshore wind market.

Valuation

Analyst rates NPI shares Outperform due to the under-appreciated growth pipeline and attractive relative valuation.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

NPI reported Q3/24 adjusted EBITDA below expectations, primarily due to issues in Offshore Wind and Natural Gas performance.

Market Perception

Given the ~7% adj. EBITDA miss and less positive directional tone on the 2024 guide, shares could trade heavy in the near term.

Performance Issues

Lower offshore wind speeds and curtailments at the German offshore wind facilities have led to reduced 4Q estimates.

Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northland Power Inc. (NPI) is a Canadian independent power producer that develops, builds, owns, and operates sustainable power infrastructure. The company primarily focuses on renewable energy sectors, including offshore and onshore wind, solar, and natural gas, with a commitment to reducing carbon emissions. NPI's core products and services revolve around the generation of clean energy and the provision of long-term energy solutions, catering to both private and public sector clients.

How the Company Makes Money

Northland Power generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced by its renewable energy assets under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and feed-in tariffs. These agreements often provide a stable and predictable cash flow, as they typically span 10 to 25 years. The company also earns revenue from the operation and maintenance of its facilities, in addition to contributing to various energy markets and programs that promote renewable energy. Significant partnerships with governments, utility companies, and other stakeholders enhance its ability to secure funding and support for new projects, while its strategic focus on expanding its portfolio of renewable assets drives further growth and profitability.

Northland Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northland Power exhibits strong operational efficiency and cash generation capabilities, with a solid income statement and robust cash flows. However, a slight decline in revenue growth suggests potential challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The balance sheet shows a moderate leverage position, which is manageable but should be monitored for any industry volatility.

Income Statement

Northland Power's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is high at 71.25%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is moderate at 11.74%. The revenue has slightly decreased from the previous period, impacting overall growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with an equity ratio of 30.99%, suggesting a balanced asset structure. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67 shows moderate leverage, which is typical for the industry. Return on equity is 6.02%, highlighting moderate profitability relative to shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates robust free cash flow growth of 64.80% in TTM, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 4.37, suggesting excellent cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.99, underscoring solid free cash flow relative to net earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.22B	2.35B	2.23B	2.45B	2.09B	2.06B
Gross Profit	1.79B	1.71B	1.61B	2.18B	1.88B	1.86B
EBITDA	1.10B	1.59B	1.26B	2.22B	1.41B	1.54B
Net Income	-45.78M	271.82M	-175.19M	827.73M	269.88M	381.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.69B	13.60B	13.63B	14.22B	12.88B	11.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	737.51M	613.32M	813.50M	1.30B	673.69M	434.99M
Total Debt	7.04B	7.20B	7.20B	7.17B	7.63B	7.59B
Total Liabilities	8.96B	9.05B	9.14B	9.50B	9.91B	9.40B
Stockholders Equity	4.31B	4.19B	4.19B	4.39B	2.76B	1.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.28B	476.75M	343.05M	1.31B	1.14B	1.10B
Operating Cash Flow	1.43B	1.03B	785.21M	1.83B	1.61B	1.32B
Investing Cash Flow	41.91M	-448.81M	-1.17B	-629.68M	-1.03B	-839.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.51B	-720.25M	-262.04M	-604.84M	-225.68M	-389.53M

Northland Power Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.08, above the 50-day MA of 22.31, and above the 200-day MA of 19.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NPI.

Northland Power Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.24B	17.99	5.60%	3.67%	6.63%	11.55%
NPI	60 Neutral	$5.87B	22.11	-1.19%	5.51%	-8.39%	-180.67%
BEP	―	$16.47B	―	-5.97%	5.89%	―	―
INE	72 Outperform		―		―	0.97%	―
PIF	61 Neutral	C$266.58M	59.81	-4.34%	6.60%	4.98%	-244.98%
BLX	54 Neutral	C$2.89B	271.12	-0.61%	2.37%	-13.45%	-112.19%
AQN	―	$4.35B	―	1.50%	4.62%	―	―

Northland Power Corporate Events

Northland Power Advances Key Projects Amidst Challenging Wind Conditions

Northland Power reported its second quarter 2025 results, highlighting significant progress in its major projects. Despite experiencing below-average wind levels in Europe, the company achieved key construction milestones, including the early and cost-effective completion of the Oneida energy storage project, first power at the Hai Long offshore wind project, and the installation of Baltic Power’s first wind turbine. Financially, Northland saw a decrease in revenue and net income compared to the previous year, attributed to low wind resources affecting its offshore wind facilities. However, the company maintained strong operational performance with 95% commercial availability and substantial liquidity, positioning itself well for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results

Northland Power announced that it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 13, 2025, after market close. The company will host an investor conference call and webcast on August 14, 2025, to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with an opportunity to engage with management and gain insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power’s Hai Long Project Achieves First Power Milestone

Northland Power has achieved a significant milestone with the first power generation from its Hai Long Offshore Wind Project in Taiwan, connecting to Taipower’s grid ahead of schedule. This achievement marks substantial progress in the project, which is expected to be fully operational by 2027, contributing to Taiwan’s renewable energy goals and providing clean electricity to over one million homes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power’s 2025 AGM: Director Elections and Auditor Appointment

Northland Power held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all ten director nominees proposed by management were elected, and Ernst & Young LLP was appointed as the independent auditor. The meeting also included a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation, which was accepted by a significant majority. This meeting reflects Northland’s ongoing commitment to strong governance and strategic oversight, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence in the company’s leadership and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power Achieves Key Milestones in Q1 2025

Northland Power has reported significant progress in its construction projects for the first quarter of 2025, including the early and under-budget completion of the Oneida energy storage project and ongoing advancements in the Hai Long and Baltic Power offshore wind projects. Despite challenging wind conditions in Europe, Northland’s diversified portfolio has demonstrated resilience, with strong performance in North American operations. The company has also seen changes in its executive leadership, with Christine Healy appointed as President and CEO, and Jeff Hart as CFO, positioning Northland to advance its strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.