Northland Power (NPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.57B
• Dividend Yield: 6.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 938.20K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: -4.86%
• EPS Growth: -86.64%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,150
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 261,502,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 884,806
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 938,201
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.92
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.63
• 1Y Price Target: $24.00
• Price Target Upside: 12.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.51B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: C$22.50 ▲(5.68% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/01/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/01/26

The score is primarily driven by solid operating profitability and improved 2025 cash generation, partially offset by a leveraged balance sheet and volatile bottom-line results (including a 2025 net loss). Technicals are supportive due to a clear uptrend, but overbought momentum indicators add near-term risk. Valuation is mixed: an attractive dividend yield is tempered by negative earnings (negative P/E).

Positive Factors

Contracted revenue via long-term PPAs

Long-term PPAs underpin stable, predictable cash flows and reduce merchant exposure, enabling reliable project financing and supporting operations across development, construction, and operations. This contractual backbone is a durable structural strength for the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Strong free cash flow growth

Sustained free cash flow growth and strong cash conversion provide capacity to fund capital projects, service debt, and support dividends. Robust cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and bolsters resilience through development cycles and construction phases.

Diversified renewable generation portfolio

A mix of offshore wind, onshore wind, solar and gas assets spreads technology and resource risk, allowing the company to capture multiple markets and regulatory incentives. Portfolio diversification supports steadier output and development optionality over multi-quarter horizons.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Elevated debt-to-equity increases refinancing and interest-rate vulnerability, constrains financial flexibility for new developments, and raises default risk if cash flows weaken. High leverage is a persistent structural risk that can limit strategic options over several quarters.

Negative profitability and ROE

Negative ROE and recurring net losses erode retained earnings and weaken shareholder returns, making it harder to deleverage or fund growth internally. Persistent unprofitability will pressure credit metrics and dividend sustainability over the medium term.

Declining operating margins

Compressing EBIT/EBITDA margins despite modest revenue growth signals rising operating costs or lower contract economics. Margin deterioration reduces free cash flow upside and amplifies sensitivity to input costs and interest expense, a structural concern for multi-quarter earnings stability.

Northland Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northland Power Inc., an independent power producer, develops, builds, owns, and operates clean and green power projects in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower, as well as clean-burning natural gas and biomass for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements. It owned or had an economic interest in 3.2 gigawatts of operating generating capacity. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Northland Power generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced by its renewable energy facilities. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with government entities and utilities, which provide a stable revenue stream by locking in prices for the electricity generated over extended periods. Key revenue streams include the sale of energy from its operational assets, capacity payments for being available to supply electricity when needed, and revenue from thermal energy sales. Additionally, NPI benefits from partnerships with other firms and governments in developing and operating its projects, which can enhance its market position and provide funding opportunities for new developments. Regulatory incentives and renewable energy credits also play a significant role in supporting the company's financial performance.

Northland Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating profitability and a meaningful 2025 improvement in operating cash flow/free cash flow support the business quality, but the 2025 net loss and elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.77) raise earnings and financing-risk volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been fairly steady with a modest rebound in 2025 (+5.9% YoY) after a dip in 2023, but bottom-line performance is volatile. Profitability remains strong at the operating level (2025 operating margin ~32% and EBITDA margin ~62%), yet net results swung from profit in 2024 to a net loss in 2025 (net margin ~-6.7%), indicating meaningful non-operating items, financing costs, or other below-the-line pressures. Overall: solid core earnings power, but inconsistent net profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated for the period shown, with debt consistently around 1.6x–1.8x equity in recent years (2025 debt-to-equity ~1.77). Equity is sizable (~$4.1B in 2025) against a large asset base (~$13.2B), but returns to shareholders have been uneven, including negative return on equity in 2025 and 2023. The balance sheet appears asset-heavy and finance-intensive, which is common in renewables, but the high leverage reduces flexibility if earnings weaken or rates remain unfavorable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in 2025: operating cash flow rose to ~$1.11B and free cash flow to ~$0.98B, a sharp step-up versus 2024 (free cash flow ~$0.13B). While free cash flow growth was negative in 2025 (down ~9% from the prior period’s higher base implied by the data), absolute free cash flow is strong and provides more financial breathing room. A key weakness is that cash-flow metrics have been choppy across years, signaling variability in working capital, capital spending, or project timing.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.43B	2.35B	2.24B	2.45B	2.09B
Gross Profit	968.13M	2.35B	1.62B	1.83B	1.55B
EBITDA	1.51B	1.53B	1.38B	1.65B	1.41B
Net Income	-163.25M	271.82M	-175.19M	827.73M	189.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.24B	13.60B	13.63B	14.22B	12.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	678.90M	613.32M	740.24M	1.46B	673.81M
Total Debt	7.18B	7.44B	7.44B	7.17B	8.14B
Total Liabilities	8.81B	9.05B	9.14B	9.50B	9.91B
Stockholders Equity	4.06B	4.19B	4.19B	4.39B	2.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	976.54M	130.97M	18.26M	1.04B	858.02M
Operating Cash Flow	1.11B	683.18M	459.37M	1.50B	1.33B
Investing Cash Flow	-94.18M	-468.77M	-1.21B	-677.09M	-975.41M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.01B	-372.66M	111.42M	-271.34M	-20.26M

Northland Power Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 21.29
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.93, above the 50-day MA of 18.97, and above the 200-day MA of 20.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.21 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NPI.

Northland Power Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
PIF	64 Neutral	C$255.33M	-64.76	-4.69%	7.11%	8.26%	-267.17%
NPI	58 Neutral	$5.57B	-28.57	-7.06%	6.80%	-4.86%	-86.64%
BEP.UN	58 Neutral	$28.42B	-400.32	-0.84%	5.56%	14.78%	-9.37%
AQN	54 Neutral	$7.30B	26.51	2.04%	4.32%	-4.72%	96.98%
BLX	47 Neutral	C$2.77B	422.17	-1.47%	2.62%	-11.91%	-132.41%
REVV	46 Neutral	C$15.51M	-5.14	-69.20%	―	-31.40%	-354.49%

Northland Power Corporate Events

Northland Power Posts Solid 2025 Results and Sharpens Growth Strategy to 2030

Northland Power reported 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion, in line with guidance, and free cash flow of $1.46 per share, above expectations, supported by record offshore wind output in Germany and 96% fleet availability. The company issued 2026 guidance with higher expected Adjusted EBITDA of $1.45–$1.65 billion and free cash flow of $1.05–$1.25 per share, while noting that slower-than-expected turbine commissioning at its Hai Long offshore wind project may reduce pre-completion revenues by $150–$200 million.

The company advanced construction on its 1.0 GW Hai Long and 1.1 GW Baltic Power offshore wind projects, both remaining on track for their targeted commercial operation dates and with costs aligned to original expectations. Northland also expanded its battery energy storage pipeline in Poland by 300 MW / 1.2 GWh, signed a five-year PPA for part of the Nordsee One output, adjusted its annual dividend to $0.72 per share and unveiled a strategic plan to double operating capacity to 7 GW by 2030, sharpen its focus on Canada and Europe and target investment returns above 12%.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Hold with a C$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.

Northland Power Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results and Earnings Call

Northland Power said it will publish its fourth-quarter 2025 operating and financial results after the market close on February 25, 2026, and will host an earnings conference call and webcast the following morning, February 26, 2026, including a question-and-answer session for analysts. The company will also make an audio recording of the event available on its website on February 27, 2026, providing investors and other stakeholders with multiple avenues to review its performance and outlook, underscoring the importance of the forthcoming results disclosure for the market’s assessment of the power producer’s ongoing growth and transition-focused strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NPI) stock is a Hold with a C$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northland Power stock, see the TSE:NPI Stock Forecast page.