Polaris Infrastructure (PIF) AI Stock Analysis

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Polaris Infrastructure

(TSX:PIF)

Rating:66Neutral

Price Target:

C$12.50

▲(5.75%Upside)

Polaris Infrastructure's score is driven by solid operational cash flow and strategic expansions like the Punta Lima acquisition. However, challenges such as a negative net profit margin and revenue decline weigh on its financial performance and valuation.

Polaris Infrastructure (PIF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$249.32M

Dividend Yield7.02%

Average Volume (3M)21.50K

Price to Earnings (P/E)59.8

Beta (1Y)0.91

Revenue Growth-1.45%

EPS Growth-210.16%

CountryCA

Employees205

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength83

IndustryRenewable Utilities

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.65

Shares Outstanding21,039,366

10 Day Avg. Volume19,386

30 Day Avg. Volume21,497

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.03

Price to Book (P/B)0.71

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio4.85

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$20.00

Price Target Upside69.20% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering0

Polaris Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPolaris Renewable Energy Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, and operation of renewable energy projects in Latin America. The company operates a 72 MW net geothermal facility in Nicaragua; and three run-of-river hydroelectric facilities in Peru with approximately 5 MW net, 8 MW net, and 20 MW net capacity. It also operates a solar project in the Dominican Republic with 32.6 MWdc. The company was formerly known as Polaris Infrastructure Inc. and changed its name to Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. in July 2022. Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes MoneyPolaris Infrastructure makes money through the generation and sale of electricity from its renewable energy projects. The company's key revenue streams include long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utility companies and governments, which provide a stable and predictable income. These contracts typically ensure that Polaris receives a fixed price for the electricity generated over an extended period. Additionally, the company's earnings are influenced by its strategic partnerships and investments in new projects, which help expand its portfolio and increase capacity. Factors such as government incentives for renewable energy, carbon credits, and the operational efficiency of its plants also contribute to Polaris Infrastructure's financial performance.

Polaris Infrastructure Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 0.51%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a mix of positive developments and challenges. While there was significant growth in adjusted EBITDA and operational cash flow, alongside strategic acquisitions and dividends, a reported net loss and revenue decline posed concerns. The company is also dealing with operational downtime in some regions, but is optimistic about future projects like the Puerto Rico battery program.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Increased Power Generation

Consolidated power production for the quarter was 216,344 megawatt hours, up from 213,434 megawatt hours in the same period in 2024.

Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $15 million, a significant increase from $5.7 million in the same period last year.

Cash Generation Improvement

Net cash from operating activities was $11.8 million, higher than $8.7 million for the same period last year.

Punta Lima Acquisition and Production

The acquisition of Punta Lima wind farm in Puerto Rico resulted in 3,558 megawatt hours of production since March 3, 2025.

Dividend Announcement

A quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share is to be paid on May 23 to shareholders of record on May 12.

Puerto Rico Battery Program

Plans for an 80-megawatt battery system in Puerto Rico are progressing, with a targeted signing in mid-June.

Negative Updates

Net Loss for the Quarter

A net loss of $10.4 million was reported for the quarter, mainly due to one-time finance costs related to the paydown of four loans.

Revenue Decline

Revenue for the quarter was $20.3 million, a slight decrease from $20.6 million last year.

Unplanned Downtime in Nicaragua and Peru

Nicaragua experienced unplanned downtime in the binary unit, resulting in 1,200 to 1,500 megawatt hours less production. Peru also faced downtime at 8 de Agosto, affecting 4,000 megawatt hours due to sediment issues.

Increased Cash Used in Investing Activities

Net cash used in investing activities was $14.7 million, up from $1.3 million in the same period in 2024, primarily due to the Punta Lima acquisition.

Company Guidance

During Polaris Renewable Energy's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported consolidated power production of 216,344 megawatt hours, a slight increase from the previous year's 213,434 megawatt hours. Despite a net loss of $10.4 million, attributed to one-time finance costs, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $15 million, significantly up from $5.7 million in Q1 2024. Revenue for the quarter was $20.3 million, slightly down from $20.6 million the previous year. Polaris also generated net cash from operating activities of $11.8 million, with a notable increase in net cash used in investing activities to $14.7 million, primarily due to the acquisition of the Punta Lima wind farm. The company plans to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share on May 23. Looking ahead, Polaris is focused on its Puerto Rican ASAP battery program, targeting an 80-megawatt battery project with a $70 million gross CapEx and anticipated net CapEx of $50 million after potential ITC grants. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $225 million in debt and $91 million in cash, positioning it for future growth opportunities.

Polaris Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Polaris Infrastructure demonstrates solid cash flow management, which is a significant strength, providing financial flexibility. However, challenges in profitability due to a recent net loss and declining equity levels present risks. Operational efficiency is maintained, yet overall financial health is pressured by these profitability issues.

Income Statement

Neutral

The company displays a decrease in revenue from $75.77M in 2024 to $75.43M in TTM, indicating a slight negative growth trend. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain stable, but the net profit margin has turned negative at -15.63% due to a net loss in the TTM period. This suggests profitability challenges despite stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The debt-to-equity ratio is at a moderate level, reflecting balanced leverage. However, the declining equity ratio from previous years indicates a reduced cushion against liabilities. The ROE has turned negative, emphasizing profitability issues and potential risks in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

The company shows strong free cash flow growth with a significant increase from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio highlights robust cash generation capabilities despite the net loss. This reflects solid cash flow performance, providing financial flexibility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
75.43M	75.77M	78.52M	62.60M	59.52M	74.72M
	Gross Profit
32.20M	32.81M	67.29M	25.19M	22.75M	38.77M
	EBIT
18.68M	19.45M	28.04M	17.61M	15.92M	37.87M
	EBITDA
39.90M	49.84M	56.99M	45.24M	45.69M	78.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-11.80M	2.99M	11.74M	2.50M	501.00K	28.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
87.02M	213.31M	40.05M	35.33M	97.93M	60.06M
	Total Assets
558.22M	662.11M	519.40M	535.10M	502.70M	491.12M
	Total Debt
219.25M	317.70M	175.12M	187.33M	170.99M	189.99M
	Net Debt
132.23M	104.39M	135.07M	152.00M	73.06M	129.93M
	Total Liabilities
312.42M	402.58M	249.47M	264.89M	241.88M	264.35M
	Stockholders Equity
245.99M	259.75M	269.34M	269.68M	262.76M	228.75M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
35.97M	31.69M	32.57M	1.02M	32.72M	33.42M
	Operating Cash Flow
38.13M	35.05M	43.96M	33.51M	41.13M	40.31M
	Investing Cash Flow
-16.77M	-3.31M	-11.38M	-65.99M	-10.15M	-2.85M
	Financing Cash Flow
24.64M	141.51M	-27.71M	-30.13M	6.89M	-9.99M

Polaris Infrastructure Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price11.82

Price Trends

50DMA

11.55

Positive

100DMA

11.89

Negative

200DMA

11.93

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.06

Negative

RSI

55.95

Neutral

STOCH

67.78

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PIF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.63, above the 50-day MA of 11.55, and below the 200-day MA of 11.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PIF.

Polaris Infrastructure Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INE	73 Outperform	C$2.78B	69.76	4.20%	2.63%	0.97%	―
PIF	66 Neutral	C$249.32M	59.81	-4.70%	7.02%	-1.45%	-210.16%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.56B	10.35	4.70%	4.34%	4.05%	-13.36%
BLX	63 Neutral	C$3.24B	294.39	0.67%	2.10%	-16.63%	-87.78%
GRB	35 Underperform	C$16.48M	―	-78.49%	―	-100.00%	-14.57%
AQN		$4.30B	―	5.54%	5.43%	―	―
NPIFF		$3.89B	21.11	6.08%	5.75%	―	―

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:PIF

Polaris Infrastructure

11.82

-0.79

-6.26%

TSE:BLX

Boralex Inc Cl A

31.70

-2.50

-7.31%

TSE:GRB

Greenbriar Capital

0.44

-0.29

-39.73%

TSE:INE

Innergex Renewable Energy

13.72

4.52

49.13%

AQN

Algonquin Power & Utilities

5.42

-0.49

-8.29%

NPIFF

Northland Power

14.85

-1.37

-8.45%

Polaris Infrastructure Corporate Events

Dividends

Polaris Renewable Energy Declares Quarterly Dividend

Positive

May 1, 2025

Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.15 per common share, payable on May 23rd to shareholders of record as of May 12th. The company’s board remains committed to maintaining and potentially increasing these dividends, reflecting its strong financial performance and dedication to shareholder value.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Polaris Renewable Energy Reports Q1 2025 Results with Strategic Acquisitions and Debt Optimization

Neutral

May 1, 2025

Polaris Renewable Energy reported its Q1 2025 results, highlighting a slight increase in energy production due to the acquisition of a Puerto Rican wind farm. Despite a stable revenue stream, the company faced net losses attributed to one-time finance costs. The acquisition of the Punta Lima Wind Farm in Puerto Rico is expected to enhance future production, with a Power Purchase Agreement in place until 2044. The company’s debt optimization strategy, including the settlement of credit facilities, aims to reduce borrowing costs, which is a strategic move to strengthen its financial position.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Polaris Renewable Energy Schedules Q1 2025 Earnings Call

Neutral

Apr 4, 2025

Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. has announced its Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast scheduled for May 1, 2025. This event will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its operations and positioning in the renewable energy sector.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Polaris Renewable Energy Expands with Puerto Rico Wind Farm Acquisition

Positive

Mar 3, 2025

Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. has completed the acquisition of Punta Lima Wind Farm LLC in Puerto Rico, marking a strategic expansion into wind energy. The acquisition, structured through a tax-equity agreement with Santander Bank, positions Polaris as the manager and operator of the 26 MW wind farm, with a 20-year power purchase agreement in place. This move is expected to provide attractive returns and growth opportunities, including potential energy storage solutions and further strategic developments on the island.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.