Capital Power (CPX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$8.67B
• Dividend Yield: 4.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 595.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: -27.55%
• EPS Growth: -12.05%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 741
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 154,648,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 667,675
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 595,565
• PEG Ratio: -0.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -57.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$64.29
• Price Target Upside: 14.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$64.00 ▲(14.10%Upside)

Capital Power's overall score reflects strong technical momentum and strategic corporate actions, offset by financial leverage and cash flow concerns. Earnings call insights and recent acquisitions bolster growth prospects despite market uncertainties.

Positive Factors

Acquisition and expansion

The acquisition establishes a foothold in the PJM RTO in the U.S. and diversifies cash flows away from the oversupplied Alberta power market.

Financial performance

The acquisition enhances CPX's scale and relevance with expected increases in EBITDA, free cash flow, enterprise value, and net capacity.

Negative Factors

Growth limitations

The weaker data center story makes it difficult to see Capital Power rallying further.

Regulatory constraints

The AESO Large Load Phase 1 allocation framework limits hyperscaler upside for Capital Power.

Capital Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates renewable and thermal power generation facilities in Canada and the United States. It generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, solar, waste heat, natural gas, and coal. The company owns an approximately 6,600 megawatts of power generation capacity at 26 facilities. It also manages its related electricity, natural gas, and emissions portfolios by undertaking trading and marketing activities. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Capital Power generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity generated by its portfolio of power generation facilities. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with various customers, including utilities, commercial entities, and governmental bodies, which provide a stable and predictable revenue stream. Additionally, Capital Power participates in wholesale electricity markets, selling electricity at spot market prices, which can contribute to revenue growth. The company also benefits from government incentives and subsidies related to renewable energy projects and carbon credits, which support its financial performance as it invests in cleaner energy technologies. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures are also significant contributors, allowing Capital Power to leverage expertise and share the financial risks associated with large-scale energy projects.

Capital Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Capital Power displays strong profitability and effective use of equity, but faces challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management, with high leverage posing potential risks.

Income Statement

Capital Power shows strong profitability with a stable gross profit margin and an improved net profit margin over the TTM. However, revenue has decreased compared to the previous year, indicating challenges in maintaining growth.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, but the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, suggesting significant leverage. Return on equity is strong, indicating effective use of shareholder funds.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust compared to net income, yet the company faces negative free cash flow growth due to high capital expenditure, indicating potential cash flow management issues.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.47B	3.77B	4.15B	2.80B	1.86B	1.88B
	Gross Profit
1.60B	1.98B	1.98B	1.22B	1.19B	1.30B
	EBIT
626.00M	766.00M	1.04B	302.00M	276.00M	412.00M
	EBITDA
1.53B	1.63B	1.68B	809.00M	828.00M	882.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
645.00M	699.00M	744.00M	138.00M	98.00M	136.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.42B	851.00M	1.42B	290.00M	370.00M	343.00M
	Total Assets
11.16B	12.93B	11.16B	10.13B	9.07B	8.91B
	Total Debt
4.86B	5.11B	4.86B	3.87B	3.50B	3.69B
	Net Debt
3.44B	4.26B	3.44B	3.58B	3.13B	3.35B
	Total Liabilities
7.97B	8.36B	7.97B	7.67B	6.21B	5.98B
	Stockholders Equity
3.19B	4.58B	3.19B	2.45B	2.84B	2.90B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-141.00M	74.00M	45.00M	253.00M	245.00M	305.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
999.00M	1.14B	768.00M	935.00M	867.00M	611.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-753.00M	-1.92B	-807.00M	-910.00M	-565.00M	-349.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
273.00M	202.00M	1.16B	-102.00M	-275.00M	-146.00M

Capital Power Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 56.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.43, above the 50-day MA of 51.82, and above the 200-day MA of 52.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CPX.

Capital Power Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CPX	75 Outperform	C$8.67B	12.13	15.24%	4.65%	-27.55%	-12.05%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.57B	10.35	4.24%	4.64%	4.07%	-13.04%
TAC		$3.29B	21.34	2.97%	1.65%	―	―
CU	72 Outperform	C$7.82B	26.06	6.76%	4.80%	-0.53%	-31.77%
INE	67 Neutral	C$2.80B	70.16	4.20%	2.61%	0.97%	―
BLX	63 Neutral	C$3.31B	300.75	0.67%	2.05%	-16.63%	-87.78%
NPIFF		$4.20B	22.63	6.08%	5.38%	―	―

Capital Power Corporate Events

Capital Power Completes Major Acquisition of U.S. Natural Gas Facilities

Capital Power Corporation has completed the acquisition of the Hummel and Rolling Hills natural gas facilities in Pennsylvania and Ohio, respectively, for approximately US$2.2 billion. This strategic acquisition, financed through a combination of equity and notes offerings, is expected to enhance Capital Power’s operational capacity and strengthen its position in the North American energy market, potentially increasing adjusted funds from operations per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CPX) stock is a Hold with a C$68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital Power stock, see the TSE:CPX Stock Forecast page.

Capital Power Secures $1.2 Billion for Strategic U.S. Acquisitions

Capital Power Corporation has successfully closed a private offering of US$1.2 billion in senior notes to fund its acquisition of Hummel Station, LLC and Rolling Hills Generating, L.L.C., two significant natural gas facilities in the United States. This strategic move is expected to enhance Capital Power’s operational capabilities and market position, with potential implications for future growth and debt management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CPX) stock is a Hold with a C$68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital Power stock, see the TSE:CPX Stock Forecast page.

Capital Power Prices $1.2 Billion Senior Notes for Strategic Acquisition

Capital Power Corporation announced the pricing of a private offering of US$1.2 billion in senior notes to fund its acquisition of Hummel Station, LLC and Rolling Hills Generating, L.L.C., both natural gas facilities in the United States. The proceeds from this offering will support the company’s strategic expansion in the energy sector, enhancing its operational capacity and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CPX) stock is a Hold with a C$68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital Power stock, see the TSE:CPX Stock Forecast page.

Capital Power Announces 2025 Shareholder Meeting Results

Capital Power Corporation held its annual meeting of shareholders on April 29, 2025, where all 10 director nominees were elected, KPMG LLP was appointed as auditors, and the approach to executive compensation was approved. Additionally, the continuation of the Amended and Restated Shareholder Rights Plan Agreement was passed. These decisions reflect Capital Power’s commitment to maintaining strong governance and operational strategies, reinforcing its position in the power production industry.

Capital Power Declares Quarterly Dividends for 2025

Capital Power has announced dividends for its common and preference shares for the quarter ending June 30, 2025. The dividends, which are eligible for enhanced tax credits under Canadian law, reflect the company’s commitment to providing shareholder returns while acknowledging its operations on Indigenous lands.

Capital Power Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Strategic Expansion

Capital Power Corporation reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strategic acquisitions and ongoing projects. The company entered into an agreement to acquire two natural gas-fired power generation facilities in the PJM market, adding significant capacity to its U.S. portfolio. This move is expected to enhance long-term cash flow and shareholder value. Additionally, Capital Power is progressing with growth projects in Ontario and has commenced construction of a solar project in North Carolina, reflecting its commitment to diversification and risk management. The company’s financial performance, including increased adjusted EBITDA and net income, underscores the effectiveness of its strategy and its ability to provide stable returns to shareholders.

Capital Power Closes $667 Million Share Offering to Fund U.S. Acquisitions

Capital Power Corporation has successfully closed a $667 million offering of common shares, which includes both a public offering and a private placement. The proceeds from this offering will be used to fund the acquisition of Hummel Station, LLC and Rolling Hills Generating, L.L.C., two significant natural gas facilities in the United States. This acquisition is expected to enhance Capital Power’s operational capacity and market positioning in the energy sector, although the completion of the acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals.

Capital Power Upsizes Bought Deal Offering to Fund Strategic Acquisitions

Capital Power Corporation has announced an increase in its previously declared bought deal offering of common shares, raising approximately $450 million in gross proceeds. The funds from this offering, along with a private placement, will be used to finance the acquisition of Hummel Station, LLC and Rolling Hills Generating, L.L.C., or alternatively, to support future growth opportunities, capital expenditures, or debt reduction.

Capital Power Expands with Strategic Acquisition in PJM Market

Capital Power Corporation has announced the acquisition of two natural gas facilities, Hummel Station and Rolling Hills, for approximately US$2.2 billion. This strategic move is expected to enhance Capital Power’s position in the PJM market, making it one of the top five North American IPPs with over 10 GW of natural gas capacity. The acquisition is anticipated to be immediately accretive to the company’s adjusted funds from operations per share, and it aligns with Capital Power’s strategy to diversify and expand its North American operations.