Keyera Corp. (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$10.09B
• Dividend Yield: 4.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 8.00%
• EPS Growth: 52.89%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,005
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.57
• Shares Outstanding: 229,153,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,119,696
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,740,533
• PEG Ratio: 29.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 222.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$50.80
• Price Target Upside: 16.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: C$48.00 ▲(9.69%Upside)

Keyera Corp. demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability. The positive technical indicators and fair valuation further support its potential. The earnings call highlighted strategic growth initiatives despite some operational challenges. Overall, the stock presents a promising investment opportunity with moderate risks.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Impact

The acquisition enhances Keyera Corp.'s existing integrated NGL footprint in Western Canada and extends into eastern North America, creating a more efficient NGL platform.

Financial Performance

The acquisition is expected to be significantly accretive, with earnings per share expected to increase by mid-teens in the first full year of operations.

Growth Prospects

Keyera Corp.'s anticipated growth is significantly higher than its peers, with a potential total return of over 30%.

Negative Factors

Guidance Shortfall

The market was disappointed with 2025 Marketing guidance falling short and underwhelming results.

Market Reaction

The market was disappointed with the 2025 Marketing guidance falling short of consensus, leading to underperformance of shares compared to the S&P/TSX Pipelines Index.

Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keyera Corp. is a leading Canadian energy infrastructure company that operates primarily within the oil and gas sector. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, and is involved in the gathering, processing, transport, storage, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Keyera's operations are organized into three primary segments: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing. This integrated business model allows Keyera to serve a wide range of customers, including major oil and gas producers across North America.

How the Company Makes Money

Keyera Corp. generates revenue through a diversified portfolio of energy services. The Gathering and Processing segment involves the collection and processing of raw natural gas, which is then sold or transported to other facilities. The Liquids Infrastructure segment focuses on the transportation, storage, and handling of natural gas liquids, which are used in various industries, including petrochemical and energy sectors. Additionally, the Marketing segment deals with the distribution and sale of natural gas liquids and iso-octane to domestic and international markets. Keyera's revenue is bolstered by long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with major energy producers, providing a stable and recurring income stream. The company also benefits from its extensive infrastructure network, which enables it to efficiently manage and transport energy products across North America.

Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keyera Corp. is in a strong financial position with solid revenue growth, improved profitability, and robust cash flows. While leverage is within a manageable range, liquidity should be monitored closely.

Income Statement

Keyera Corp. demonstrates a strong performance with consistent revenue growth, shown by a 1.95% increase in total revenue from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin decreased slightly, but net income grew by 14.75%, indicating improved profitability. The EBITDA margin remains healthy, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38, indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio is 32.35%, suggesting a solid equity base. However, the decrease in cash and cash equivalents warrants attention for liquidity management.

Cash Flow

Keyera Corp. exhibits robust cash flows with a significant increase in free cash flow by 271.59% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. However, the negative financing cash flow reflects ongoing debt repayments.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.14B	7.00B	7.06B	4.98B	3.01B
Gross Profit	1.03B	1.06B	917.52M	787.66M	650.12M
EBITDA	1.21B	1.07B	858.12M	853.21M	495.18M
Net Income	486.63M	424.03M	328.29M	324.21M	62.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.76B	8.78B	8.57B	8.13B	7.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	118.44M	20.09M	-209.40M	15.94M	2.90M
Total Debt	3.90B	4.29B	3.90B	3.70B	3.43B
Total Liabilities	5.92B	6.00B	5.75B	5.47B	4.80B
Stockholders Equity	2.83B	2.78B	2.82B	2.66B	2.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.01B	272.80M	29.40M	67.21M	27.84M
Operating Cash Flow	1.27B	975.49M	925.33M	583.84M	688.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-235.31M	-819.71M	-843.92M	-397.12M	-748.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-935.65M	-134.26M	-100.65M	-173.85M	53.80M

Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 43.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.35, above the 50-day MA of 42.24, and above the 200-day MA of 42.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEY.

Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KEY	76 Outperform	C$10.09B	18.48	19.55%	4.75%	8.00%	52.89%
PPL	75 Outperform	$29.39B	16.49	11.55%	5.60%	-5.42%	-1.70%
GEI	73 Outperform	$3.88B	24.07	17.23%	7.20%	-5.85%	-8.05%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$14.65B	9.68	6.41%	5.31%	4.12%	-71.24%
ALA	67 Neutral	$11.45B	20.33	6.56%	3.29%	2.27%	-9.19%
TRP	66 Neutral	$67.05B	15.40	15.89%	5.25%	0.72%	60.40%
TWM	49 Neutral	C$90.56M	―	-16.97%	―	-25.69%	87.47%

Keyera Corp. Corporate Events

Keyera Completes $2.07 Billion Offering to Fund Strategic Acquisition

Keyera Corp. announced the successful closing of a $2.07 billion bought-deal offering of subscription receipts, which will trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘KEY.R’. The proceeds are intended to finance part of Keyera’s acquisition of Plains’ Canadian natural gas liquids business and select U.S. assets, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. This strategic move is anticipated to enhance Keyera’s market position in the energy infrastructure sector, providing growth opportunities and strengthening its asset base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Launches $1.8 Billion Offering to Fund Strategic Acquisition

Keyera Corp. announced a $1.8 billion bought-deal offering of subscription receipts to finance the acquisition of Plains’ Canadian natural gas liquids business and select U.S. assets. This strategic move is expected to enhance Keyera’s market position and expand its asset base, potentially benefiting shareholders through increased dividends and strengthening its operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Expands NGL Infrastructure with $5.15 Billion Acquisition

Keyera Corp. has announced a transformative acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL business and select U.S. assets for $5.15 billion, significantly expanding its NGL infrastructure across Canada. This strategic move is expected to enhance Keyera’s market position by providing more reliable services and diversified market access, while also delivering immediate shareholder value and supporting Canada’s energy infrastructure resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Sanctions KAPS Zone 4 Expansion to Strengthen Market Position

Keyera Corp. has announced the sanctioning of KAPS Zone 4, an 85-kilometre pipeline extension, enhancing connectivity to the Montney regions in British Columbia and Alberta. This strategic expansion, backed by long-term agreements with Montney producers, is expected to boost Keyera’s competitive position and support sustainable dividend growth through increased contracted volumes and diversified market access.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Announces Board Changes and Strong Shareholder Support

Keyera Corp. announced the retirement of directors Michael Norris and Douglas Haughey, marking a significant transition in its board leadership. The company also revealed the election of new directors, T. Tim Kitchen and Bob Pritchard, who bring substantial experience in the energy and investment banking sectors. The voting results from the Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders showed strong support for all nominees and resolutions, including executive compensation and auditor appointments, indicating shareholder confidence in Keyera’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Reports Q1 2025 Results and Approves KFS Frac III Expansion

Keyera Corp. announced its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net earnings increase to $130 million and a fee-for-service realized margin growth of 9% compared to the previous year. The company sanctioned the KFS Frac III expansion, aiming to enhance its infrastructure and support long-term shareholder value. Despite a maintenance outage impacting the Marketing segment’s margin, Keyera maintains a strong financial position with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.0 times, below its target range. The company continues to pursue organic growth opportunities and has secured additional long-term contracts, aligning with its strategic growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Declares Second Quarter 2025 Dividend

Keyera Corp. announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.52 per common share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on June 30, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and maintaining a stable financial outlook, reinforcing its position in the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Announces Q1 2025 Results and Annual Meeting Plans

Keyera Corp. announced the release of its first quarter 2025 results and the scheduling of its Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, both set for May 15, 2025. The results will be discussed in a conference call and webcast, while the Annual Meeting will be held both in-person and virtually, with shareholders encouraged to participate and vote. This announcement underscores Keyera’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement, potentially impacting its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.