Keyera Corp. (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$9.49B
• Dividend Yield: 4.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 838.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 8.00%
• EPS Growth: 52.89%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,005
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.57
• Shares Outstanding: 229,153,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,098,336
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 838,439
• PEG Ratio: 2.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$48.73
• Price Target Upside: 17.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$47.00 ▲(13.47%Upside)

Keyera Corp. has a strong financial foundation with promising growth initiatives. Technical indicators show weak momentum, but the stock's valuation and strategic plans provide potential upside. The overall outlook is stable, with liquidity and market volatility as key watch points.

Positive Factors

Execution Success

Continued successful execution of known opportunities should benefit the share price and valuation.

Financial Stability

The company's debt to EBITDA ratio is below the target range, which is a strong indicator of financial stability.

Future Growth

Keyera's dedicated team is actively evaluating inorganic opportunities, which could lead to future growth.

Growth Potential

Keyera Corp's new growth remains robust across its entire integrated value chain from gas processing debottlenecks, frac expansions, and NGL extensions.

Negative Factors

Market Guidance

The market was disappointed with the 2025 Marketing guidance falling short of consensus, leading to underperformance of shares compared to the S&P/TSX Pipelines Index.

Market Performance

The market was disappointed with 2025 Marketing guidance falling short and underwhelming results.

Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keyera Corp. is a leading Canadian energy infrastructure company that operates primarily within the oil and gas sector. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, and is involved in the gathering, processing, transport, storage, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Keyera's operations are organized into three primary segments: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing. This integrated business model allows Keyera to serve a wide range of customers, including major oil and gas producers across North America.

How the Company Makes Money

Keyera Corp. generates revenue through a diversified portfolio of energy services. The Gathering and Processing segment involves the collection and processing of raw natural gas, which is then sold or transported to other facilities. The Liquids Infrastructure segment focuses on the transportation, storage, and handling of natural gas liquids, which are used in various industries, including petrochemical and energy sectors. Additionally, the Marketing segment deals with the distribution and sale of natural gas liquids and iso-octane to domestic and international markets. Keyera's revenue is bolstered by long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with major energy producers, providing a stable and recurring income stream. The company also benefits from its extensive infrastructure network, which enables it to efficiently manage and transport energy products across North America.

Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keyera Corp. is in a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth, improved profitability, and robust cash flows. While leverage is manageable, liquidity needs close monitoring.

Income Statement

Keyera Corp. demonstrates a strong performance with consistent revenue growth, shown by a 1.95% increase in total revenue from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin decreased slightly, but net income grew by 14.75%, indicating improved profitability. The EBITDA margin remains healthy, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38, indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio is 32.35%, suggesting a solid equity base. However, the decrease in cash and cash equivalents warrants attention for liquidity management.

Cash Flow

Keyera Corp. exhibits robust cash flows with a significant increase in free cash flow by 271.59% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. However, the negative financing cash flow reflects ongoing debt repayments.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.14B	7.00B	7.06B	4.98B	3.01B
	Gross Profit
1.03B	1.06B	917.52M	787.66M	650.12M
	EBIT
0.00	901.84M	801.91M	693.46M	588.81M
	EBITDA
1.21B	1.07B	858.12M	853.21M	495.18M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
486.63M	424.03M	328.29M	324.21M	62.03M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
118.44M	20.09M	-209.40M	15.94M	2.90M
	Total Assets
8.76B	8.78B	8.57B	8.13B	7.56B
	Total Debt
3.90B	4.29B	3.90B	3.70B	3.43B
	Net Debt
3.78B	4.27B	4.11B	3.68B	3.43B
	Total Liabilities
5.92B	6.00B	5.75B	5.47B	4.80B
	Stockholders Equity
2.83B	2.78B	2.82B	2.66B	2.76B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.01B	272.80M	29.40M	67.21M	27.84M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.27B	975.49M	925.33M	583.84M	688.17M
	Investing Cash Flow
-235.31M	-819.71M	-843.92M	-397.12M	-748.31M
	Financing Cash Flow
-935.65M	-134.26M	-100.65M	-173.85M	53.80M

Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 41.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 41.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.80, below the 50-day MA of 42.77, and below the 200-day MA of 42.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEY.

Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	74 Outperform	$30.21B	16.95	11.55%	5.23%	-5.42%	-1.70%
TRP	74 Outperform	$73.20B	16.74	15.89%	5.03%	0.72%	60.40%
GEI	73 Outperform	$3.78B	23.27	17.23%	7.11%	-5.85%	-8.05%
KEY	72 Outperform	C$9.49B	17.38	19.55%	4.97%	8.00%	52.89%
ALA	71 Outperform	C$11.52B	20.44	6.56%	3.09%	2.27%	-9.19%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.14B	3.01	-3.46%	5.69%	0.76%	-49.20%
TWM	42 Neutral	C$84.08M	―	-16.97%	―	-25.69%	87.47%

Keyera Corp. Corporate Events

Keyera Corp. Announces Board Changes and Strong Shareholder Support

Keyera Corp. announced the retirement of directors Michael Norris and Douglas Haughey, marking a significant transition in its board leadership. The company also revealed the election of new directors, T. Tim Kitchen and Bob Pritchard, who bring substantial experience in the energy and investment banking sectors. The voting results from the Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders showed strong support for all nominees and resolutions, including executive compensation and auditor appointments, indicating shareholder confidence in Keyera’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Reports Q1 2025 Results and Approves KFS Frac III Expansion

Keyera Corp. announced its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net earnings increase to $130 million and a fee-for-service realized margin growth of 9% compared to the previous year. The company sanctioned the KFS Frac III expansion, aiming to enhance its infrastructure and support long-term shareholder value. Despite a maintenance outage impacting the Marketing segment’s margin, Keyera maintains a strong financial position with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.0 times, below its target range. The company continues to pursue organic growth opportunities and has secured additional long-term contracts, aligning with its strategic growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Declares Second Quarter 2025 Dividend

Keyera Corp. announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.52 per common share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on June 30, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and maintaining a stable financial outlook, reinforcing its position in the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Announces Q1 2025 Results and Annual Meeting Plans

Keyera Corp. announced the release of its first quarter 2025 results and the scheduling of its Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, both set for May 15, 2025. The results will be discussed in a conference call and webcast, while the Annual Meeting will be held both in-person and virtually, with shareholders encouraged to participate and vote. This announcement underscores Keyera’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement, potentially impacting its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.