Keyera Corp. (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$11.94B
• Dividend Yield: 4.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -4.09%
• EPS Growth: -3.57%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,005
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 229,282,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,043,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,197,989
• PEG Ratio: -2.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$54.22
• Price Target Upside: 4.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$8.51B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: C$55.00 ▲(5.65% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by financial risk from higher leverage and softer 2025 cash-flow/revenue trends, partially offset by strong technical uptrend and a constructive earnings-call outlook (fee-for-service strength and growth/M&A). Valuation is mixed: a solid dividend yield helps, but the higher P/E reduces upside support.

Positive Factors

Fee-for-service segment strength

Sustained growth in fee-for-service margins reflects higher throughput and plant contributions (Wapiti, Simonette). Fee-based cash flows are structurally more predictable than commodity-exposed earnings, supporting durable EBITDA and lowering revenue volatility over a multi‑year horizon.

Sanctioned contracted growth projects

The company’s pipeline of highly contracted, capital-efficient expansions should lift fee-based capacity and cash flow. Contracted projects lower execution risk, target double-digit returns on capital, and provide structural EBITDA growth visibility through 2027, bolstering long-term revenue resilience.

Transformational Plains NGL acquisition

Acquiring Plains' Canadian NGL assets materially expands scale and integrated value-chain capabilities, increasing fee-based and infrastructure revenue streams. If closed, the deal should diversify markets, improve terminal/storage footprint and strengthen long-term cash generation and competitive position.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

A sharp step-up in leverage constrains balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. Elevated debt amplifies downside risk if midstream cash flows soften, limiting the company's ability to fund growth, weather outages, or sustain dividends without additional capital actions.

Large marketing margin decline

A near-40% drop in marketing margins materially reduces earnings diversification and the company’s margin cushion. Persistent weakness in marketing spreads or volumes would compress overall profitability and make distributable cash flow more sensitive to cyclical commodity differentials and operational disruptions.

Weaker cash conversion and volatile FCF

Declining and volatile free cash flow reduces the company’s capacity to delever, fund sanctioned growth, and maintain a conservative dividend target. Lower cash conversion raises execution and liquidity risk over the medium term, especially given higher leverage and potential capital needs for integration/outages.

Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keyera Corp. engages in the energy infrastructure business in Canada. The company operates through Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing segments. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate the economic components primarily natural gas liquids; and provides condensate handling services. This segment has approximately 4,400 kilometers of gathering pipelines; and holds interests in 12 active gas plants in Alberta. The Liquids Infrastructure segment provides gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, liquids blending, and terminalling services for natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil through a network of facilities that include underground NGL storage caverns, above ground storage tanks, NGL fractionation and de-ethanization facilities, pipelines, rail and truck terminals, NGL blending facilities, and the Alberta EnviroFuels facility. This segment also produces iso-octane. The Marketing segment engages in the marketing of propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane, as well as liquids blending activities. The company was formerly known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund and changed its name to Keyera Corp. in January 2011. Keyera Corp. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Keyera Corp. generates revenue primarily through its midstream services, which include natural gas processing, transportation, and storage. The company earns income from fee-based contracts with producers, where it charges for processing and transporting natural gas. Key revenue streams include processing fees from its natural gas plants, transportation fees from its pipeline system, and revenue from the sale of by-products such as natural gas liquids. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other energy companies and long-term contracts with producers help to stabilize and diversify Keyera's earnings. The company also benefits from its operational efficiencies and scale, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing and enhance profitability.

Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability remains solid (mid-single-digit net margins) and free cash flow is positive, but 2025 showed weaker revenue/margins and a sharp step-up in leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~2.3x). Operating cash flow fell versus 2024 and cash conversion weakened, increasing balance-sheet and execution risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has been largely flat to down recently (2025 down ~3.4% after a modest 2024 uptick), while profitability remains solid for the sector with net margins in the mid-single digits (about 6–7% in 2023–2025). However, 2025 shows clear pressure versus 2024, with lower gross margin and lower net income, pointing to a less favorable pricing/spread environment and/or higher costs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint. Debt-to-equity moved from a ~1.4–1.5x range (2021–2024) to ~2.3x in 2025 as total debt increased sharply, reducing financial flexibility. Equity is relatively stable and returns on equity are healthy (mid-teens in 2023–2025), but the higher leverage meaningfully raises risk if earnings or cash flow soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, but volatility is notable. Free cash flow improved materially in 2023–2024 and remained positive in 2025, yet 2025 declined ~10% year over year and operating cash flow fell sharply versus 2024. Free cash flow covered only ~64% of net income in 2025 (down from ~80% in 2024), suggesting weaker cash conversion and/or higher capital spending needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.85B	7.14B	7.05B	7.06B	4.98B
Gross Profit	1.01B	1.39B	1.43B	1.18B	1.05B
EBITDA	1.19B	1.16B	1.24B	1.02B	893.99M
Net Income	432.33M	486.63M	424.03M	328.29M	324.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.05B	8.76B	8.78B	8.57B	8.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.33B	118.44M	20.09M	-209.40M	15.94M
Total Debt	6.30B	3.90B	4.29B	3.90B	3.70B
Total Liabilities	10.29B	5.92B	6.00B	5.75B	5.47B
Stockholders Equity	2.76B	2.83B	2.78B	2.82B	2.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	492.01M	1.01B	272.80M	29.40M	67.21M
Operating Cash Flow	774.54M	1.27B	975.49M	925.33M	583.84M
Investing Cash Flow	-465.43M	-235.31M	-819.71M	-843.92M	-397.12M
Financing Cash Flow	1.91B	-935.65M	-134.26M	-100.65M	-173.85M

Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 52.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.72, above the 50-day MA of 46.11, and above the 200-day MA of 43.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 68.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEY.

Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	77 Outperform	$34.83B	22.47	9.91%	5.44%	2.81%	-14.92%
TPZ	70 Outperform	C$4.81B	37.23	4.75%	4.91%	6.52%	-13.92%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
ALA	64 Neutral	$14.43B	18.56	9.01%	2.99%	-0.68%	49.61%
KEY	61 Neutral	C$11.94B	27.60	15.28%	4.81%	-4.09%	-3.57%
GEI	58 Neutral	$5.04B	24.27	16.47%	6.61%	-12.18%	-29.17%
TWM	43 Neutral	C$172.65M	-2.01	-33.62%	―	-23.30%	76.16%

Keyera Corp. Corporate Events

Keyera Posts Record Fee-Based Margins as Transformative NGL Expansion Advances

Keyera reported 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1.13 billion, or $1.16 billion excluding transaction costs, with record annual fee-for-service margins from its Gathering and Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments, even as weaker Marketing results weighed on overall performance. Distributable cash flow reached $735 million for the year, net earnings were $432 million, and leverage remained low at 1.8 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, underscoring a strong balance sheet.

The company marked 2025 as a transformational year, sanctioning three major growth projects, acquiring a strategic interest in two Simonette-area gas plants, and progressing the transformative purchase of Plains’ Canadian NGL business, expected to close around the end of the first quarter of 2026. These moves expand Keyera’s national platform, secure additional long-term volumes, unlock follow-on growth opportunities, and are aimed at enhancing reliability, competitiveness, and long-term value for customers and shareholders, while non-core asset sales such as the Wildhorse Terminal help recycle capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Declares Q1 2026 Dividend, Underscoring Stable Midstream Cash Flows

Keyera Corp., a Canadian energy infrastructure company specializing in natural gas and NGL services across North America, runs a largely fee-for-service business that includes gathering, processing, liquids handling, iso-octane production and a leading condensate system around Edmonton and Fort Saskatchewan. The company emphasizes ethical, safe and environmentally responsible operations while providing value-added midstream services to its customers.

Keyera declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.54 per common share for the first quarter of 2026, payable on March 31 to shareholders of record on March 16, with the same date as the ex-dividend date. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes and subject to withholding for non-residents, underscores the company’s continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders and signals confidence in the stability of its fee-based midstream cash flows.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2025 Results and Investor Call

Keyera Corp. has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for before markets open on February 12, 2026, followed by a same-day conference call and live webcast for investors and stakeholders. The planned disclosure and accompanying investor events underscore the company’s ongoing engagement with the market and provide a key upcoming milestone for shareholders and analysts to assess its recent operational and financial performance within the Canadian energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Faces Extended Alberta Envirofuels Outage, Brings Forward Major Turnaround

Keyera Corp. has reported an extended unplanned outage at its Alberta Envirofuels iso-octane facility after identifying premature failure in long-life equipment that had been replaced about three years ago, with the plant now expected to return to service in May 2026. The company is advancing a major six-week turnaround that had been scheduled for fall 2026 to coincide with the current shutdown, which will avoid a separate outage later in the year but is expected to reduce 2026 Marketing segment realized margin by about $110 million and Liquids Infrastructure realized margin by $15 million, partially offset by a roughly $30 million decrease in cash taxes and a $10 million increase in maintenance capital, with the operational disruption and financial hit highlighting reliability risks at a key asset even as Keyera seeks to protect long-term integrity and minimize future downtime.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Adds Veteran Energy Executive Renee Zemljak to Board of Directors

Keyera Corp. has appointed veteran energy executive Renee Zemljak to its Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2026, adding more than three decades of experience in North American energy markets and midstream operations. Zemljak’s background in commodity risk management, midstream infrastructure development, M&A-driven portfolio optimization, capital allocation discipline, and organizational transformation is expected to strengthen Keyera’s strategic oversight and support its ongoing efforts to create value and enhance governance as it competes in the evolving North American energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.