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Keyera Corp. (TSE:KEY)
TSX:KEY
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Keyera Corp. (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:KEY

Keyera Corp.

(TSX:KEY)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$49.00
▲(10.48% Upside)
Keyera Corp. receives a strong overall score due to its solid financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The technical analysis supports a stable trend, while the valuation is reasonable with a good dividend yield. The company's strategic growth initiatives and acquisitions are expected to drive future growth, outweighing current challenges in revenue and cash flow.
Positive Factors
Acquisition
The acquisition enhances Keyera Corp.'s existing integrated NGL footprint in Western Canada and extends into eastern North America, creating a more efficient NGL platform.
Earnings
The acquisition is expected to be significantly accretive, with earnings per share expected to increase by mid-teens in the first full year of operations.
Financial Performance
Keyera Corp.'s anticipated growth is significantly higher than its peers, with a potential total return of over 30%.
Negative Factors
Guidance
The market was disappointed with 2025 Marketing guidance falling short and underwhelming results.
Market Performance
The market was disappointed with the 2025 Marketing guidance falling short of consensus, leading to underperformance of shares compared to the S&P/TSX Pipelines Index.

Keyera Corp. (KEY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKeyera Corp. engages in the energy infrastructure business in Canada. The company operates through Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing segments. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate the economic components primarily natural gas liquids; and provides condensate handling services. This segment has approximately 4,400 kilometers of gathering pipelines; and holds interests in 12 active gas plants in Alberta. The Liquids Infrastructure segment provides gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, liquids blending, and terminalling services for natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil through a network of facilities that include underground NGL storage caverns, above ground storage tanks, NGL fractionation and de-ethanization facilities, pipelines, rail and truck terminals, NGL blending facilities, and the Alberta EnviroFuels facility. This segment also produces iso-octane. The Marketing segment engages in the marketing of propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane, as well as liquids blending activities. The company was formerly known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund and changed its name to Keyera Corp. in January 2011. Keyera Corp. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyKeyera Corp. generates revenue primarily through its three business segments: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing. The Gathering and Processing segment earns money by charging fees for the processing of natural gas and NGLs from producers. The Liquids Infrastructure segment generates income from providing storage, transportation, and fractionation services, where it charges customers for the use of its facilities and pipelines. The Marketing segment derives revenue from the purchase and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and iso-octane, leveraging market opportunities and price differentials. Additionally, Keyera benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with producers and other industry players, ensuring stable and recurring income streams.

Keyera Corp. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, significant long-term contracting achievements, and a transformational acquisition that is expected to drive future growth. However, there were challenges, including a decline in marketing realized margins and the impact of the AEF outage. Overall, the positives in terms of strategic growth and financial strength outweighed the negatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q2 2025 Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA was $252 million, although it included $12 million in onetime transaction costs related to the Plains acquisition. Distributable cash flow was $159 million or $0.69 per share, with net earnings of $127 million, down from $142 million last year.
Significant Long-Term Contracting Achievements
Secured over 100,000 barrels per day of new long-term contracted volumes on KAPS Zones 1 to 4. The frac capacity at KFS is now substantially contracted, supporting a growth target of 7% to 8% annual fee-based adjusted EBITDA from 2024 to 2027.
Transformational Acquisition
Acquired Plains' Canadian NGL business, expected to be mid-teens accretive to DCF per share in the first full year, assuming $100 million in near-term synergies. Fee-based adjusted EBITDA expected to increase by approximately 50% over that period.
Dividend Increase
Board approved a 4% annual increase in dividend, driven by strong fee-for-service growth and sustainable cash flow.
Negative Updates
Decline in Marketing Realized Margin
Marketing realized margin declined to $60 million from $136 million last year, primarily due to softer commodity pricing and outages at AEF.
Impact of AEF Outage
Annual impact of the 2025 AEF outage remains estimated at $50 million, affecting overall financial performance.
Company Guidance
During Keyera's 2025 Second Quarter Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. Keyera sanctioned three capital-efficient growth projects: Frac II Debottleneck, Frac III, and KAPS Zone 4, while securing over 100,000 barrels per day of new long-term contracted volumes on KAPS Zones 1 to 4. This progress supports their growth target of 7% to 8% annual fee-based adjusted EBITDA from 2024 to 2027. The company's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $252 million, and distributable cash flow was $159 million or $0.69 per share. Net earnings were reported at $127 million. The Gathering and Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments contributed a combined realized margin of $255 million, an increase of over 8% from the previous year. Keyera's marketing realized margin was $60 million, with an annual impact from the 2025 AEF outage estimated at $50 million. The company ended the quarter with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2x, excluding acquisition-related costs, and reaffirmed marketing realized margin guidance of $310 million to $350 million for the year. Growth capital expenditure is now expected to range between $275 million to $300 million, slightly adjusted due to project timing.

Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Keyera Corp. shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability. The company has robust cash flows, although liquidity management needs attention due to decreased cash reserves.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Keyera Corp. demonstrates a strong performance with consistent revenue growth, shown by a 1.95% increase in total revenue from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin decreased slightly, but net income grew by 14.75%, indicating improved profitability. The EBITDA margin remains healthy, reflecting efficient operational management.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38, indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio is 32.35%, suggesting a solid equity base. However, the decrease in cash and cash equivalents warrants attention for liquidity management.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Keyera Corp. exhibits robust cash flows with a significant increase in free cash flow by 271.59% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. However, the negative financing cash flow reflects ongoing debt repayments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.27B7.14B7.00B7.06B4.98B3.01B
Gross Profit1.09B1.03B1.06B917.52M787.66M650.12M
EBITDA1.27B1.21B1.07B858.12M853.21M495.18M
Net Income530.39M486.63M424.03M328.29M324.21M62.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.64B8.76B8.78B8.57B8.13B7.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments44.95M118.44M20.09M-209.40M15.94M2.90M
Total Debt3.84B3.90B4.29B3.90B3.70B3.43B
Total Liabilities7.81B5.92B6.00B5.75B5.47B4.80B
Stockholders Equity2.83B2.83B2.78B2.82B2.66B2.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow652.31M1.01B272.80M29.40M67.21M27.84M
Operating Cash Flow906.04M1.27B975.49M925.33M583.84M688.17M
Investing Cash Flow-257.30M-235.31M-819.71M-843.92M-397.12M-748.31M
Financing Cash Flow-649.49M-935.65M-134.26M-100.65M-173.85M53.80M

Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price44.35
Price Trends
50DMA
43.65
Positive
100DMA
42.68
Positive
200DMA
42.52
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.47
Negative
RSI
53.05
Neutral
STOCH
49.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.01, above the 50-day MA of 43.65, and above the 200-day MA of 42.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEY.

Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
C$10.26B19.3418.92%4.69%1.57%55.82%
65
Neutral
$15.47B7.302.96%5.25%4.27%-62.52%
$21.83B17.6010.69%5.33%
$53.20B17.3715.25%4.84%
$3.06B26.6817.22%6.39%
$8.77B15.899.15%2.96%
47
Neutral
C$97.17M-21.94%-30.00%84.31%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
44.35
5.91
15.37%
PBA
Pembina Pipeline
37.53
-0.74
-1.93%
TRP
TC Energy
51.64
11.59
28.94%
GBNXF
Gibson Energy
18.68
3.38
22.09%
ATGFF
AltaGas
29.68
5.20
21.24%
TSE:TWM
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure
0.23
-0.10
-30.30%

Keyera Corp. Corporate Events

Dividends
Keyera Corp. Boosts Quarterly Dividend by 4% for Q3 2025
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Keyera Corp. has announced a 4% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it from $0.52 to $0.54 per common share, amounting to $2.16 annually. The dividend for the third quarter of 2025 will be paid on September 29, 2025, to shareholders of record on September 15, 2025. This move reflects Keyera’s commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may strengthen its position in the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Keyera Reports Strong Q2 Results and Announces Dividend Increase
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Keyera Corp. reported strong second-quarter financial results, driven by robust performance in its Gathering and Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments. The company announced a 4% dividend increase, reflecting confidence in its stable cash flows. Keyera also highlighted the transformational acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL assets, which is expected to enhance service offerings and create value for customers and shareholders. Despite a decline in the Marketing segment due to lower commodity prices, Keyera maintained a strong financial position with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio below its target range. The company remains on track to achieve its growth targets, supported by new long-term contracts and strategic project expansions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Keyera Corp. Boosts Quarterly Dividend by 4%
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Keyera Corp. has announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it from $0.52 to $0.54 per common share, which translates to an annual dividend of $2.16. This decision reflects the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to delivering value to its shareholders, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to investors and solidifying its position in the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Keyera Corp. Schedules Q2 2025 Results Release and Conference Call
Neutral
Jul 24, 2025

Keyera Corp. has announced the release of its second quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for August 7, 2025, before market opening. The announcement will be followed by a conference call and webcast, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction. This event is significant for investors and analysts as it offers a detailed view of Keyera’s operational and financial health, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Keyera Completes $2.07 Billion Offering to Fund Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

Keyera Corp. announced the successful closing of a $2.07 billion bought-deal offering of subscription receipts, which will trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘KEY.R’. The proceeds are intended to finance part of Keyera’s acquisition of Plains’ Canadian natural gas liquids business and select U.S. assets, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. This strategic move is anticipated to enhance Keyera’s market position in the energy infrastructure sector, providing growth opportunities and strengthening its asset base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Keyera Corp. Launches $1.8 Billion Offering to Fund Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Jun 17, 2025

Keyera Corp. announced a $1.8 billion bought-deal offering of subscription receipts to finance the acquisition of Plains’ Canadian natural gas liquids business and select U.S. assets. This strategic move is expected to enhance Keyera’s market position and expand its asset base, potentially benefiting shareholders through increased dividends and strengthening its operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Keyera Corp. Expands NGL Infrastructure with $5.15 Billion Acquisition
Positive
Jun 17, 2025

Keyera Corp. has announced a transformative acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL business and select U.S. assets for $5.15 billion, significantly expanding its NGL infrastructure across Canada. This strategic move is expected to enhance Keyera’s market position by providing more reliable services and diversified market access, while also delivering immediate shareholder value and supporting Canada’s energy infrastructure resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Keyera Corp. Sanctions KAPS Zone 4 Expansion to Strengthen Market Position
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

Keyera Corp. has announced the sanctioning of KAPS Zone 4, an 85-kilometre pipeline extension, enhancing connectivity to the Montney regions in British Columbia and Alberta. This strategic expansion, backed by long-term agreements with Montney producers, is expected to boost Keyera’s competitive position and support sustainable dividend growth through increased contracted volumes and diversified market access.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Keyera Corp. Announces Board Changes and Strong Shareholder Support
Positive
May 16, 2025

Keyera Corp. announced the retirement of directors Michael Norris and Douglas Haughey, marking a significant transition in its board leadership. The company also revealed the election of new directors, T. Tim Kitchen and Bob Pritchard, who bring substantial experience in the energy and investment banking sectors. The voting results from the Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders showed strong support for all nominees and resolutions, including executive compensation and auditor appointments, indicating shareholder confidence in Keyera’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Keyera Corp. Reports Q1 2025 Results and Approves KFS Frac III Expansion
Positive
May 15, 2025

Keyera Corp. announced its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net earnings increase to $130 million and a fee-for-service realized margin growth of 9% compared to the previous year. The company sanctioned the KFS Frac III expansion, aiming to enhance its infrastructure and support long-term shareholder value. Despite a maintenance outage impacting the Marketing segment’s margin, Keyera maintains a strong financial position with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.0 times, below its target range. The company continues to pursue organic growth opportunities and has secured additional long-term contracts, aligning with its strategic growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Keyera Corp. Declares Second Quarter 2025 Dividend
Positive
May 14, 2025

Keyera Corp. announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.52 per common share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on June 30, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and maintaining a stable financial outlook, reinforcing its position in the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025