Keyera Corp. (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$9.78B
• Dividend Yield: 4.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 1.57%
• EPS Growth: 55.82%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,005
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 229,153,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,043,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,197,989
• PEG Ratio: 1.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$52.00
• Price Target Upside: 22.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$49.00 ▲(15.32% Upside)

Keyera Corp. scores well due to strong earnings call highlights and solid valuation metrics. Financial performance is stable, though recent revenue and cash flow challenges need addressing. Technical analysis suggests caution with bearish momentum, but valuation and strategic growth initiatives provide a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Long-Term Contracting Achievements

Securing long-term contracts enhances revenue stability and supports Keyera's growth target of 7% to 8% annual fee-based adjusted EBITDA from 2024 to 2027, ensuring predictable cash flows and strengthening its market position.

Transformational Acquisition

The acquisition of Plains' Canadian NGL business is expected to significantly boost Keyera's fee-based adjusted EBITDA by approximately 50%, enhancing its competitive edge and market share in the midstream sector.

Dividend Increase

The dividend increase reflects Keyera's strong fee-for-service growth and sustainable cash flow, indicating confidence in its long-term financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Decline in Marketing Realized Margin

The significant decline in marketing realized margin due to softer commodity pricing and outages poses a risk to profitability, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments to mitigate market volatility impacts.

Impact of AEF Outage

The ongoing financial impact of the AEF outage underscores operational vulnerabilities, potentially affecting Keyera's ability to consistently meet financial targets and necessitating improved infrastructure resilience.

Revenue Growth Challenges

Recent revenue decline indicates potential market challenges, necessitating strategic focus on revenue growth and cash flow management to maintain financial stability and support long-term business objectives.

Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keyera Corp. engages in the energy infrastructure business in Canada. The company operates through Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing segments. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate the economic components primarily natural gas liquids; and provides condensate handling services. This segment has approximately 4,400 kilometers of gathering pipelines; and holds interests in 12 active gas plants in Alberta. The Liquids Infrastructure segment provides gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, liquids blending, and terminalling services for natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil through a network of facilities that include underground NGL storage caverns, above ground storage tanks, NGL fractionation and de-ethanization facilities, pipelines, rail and truck terminals, NGL blending facilities, and the Alberta EnviroFuels facility. This segment also produces iso-octane. The Marketing segment engages in the marketing of propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane, as well as liquids blending activities. The company was formerly known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund and changed its name to Keyera Corp. in January 2011. Keyera Corp. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Keyera Corp. generates revenue primarily through its midstream services, which include natural gas processing, transportation, and storage. The company earns income from fee-based contracts with producers, where it charges for processing and transporting natural gas. Key revenue streams include processing fees from its natural gas plants, transportation fees from its pipeline system, and revenue from the sale of by-products such as natural gas liquids. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other energy companies and long-term contracts with producers help to stabilize and diversify Keyera's earnings. The company also benefits from its operational efficiencies and scale, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing and enhance profitability.

Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keyera Corp. demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and operational efficiency. However, recent revenue decline and cash flow challenges pose risks. Continued focus on revenue growth and cash flow management will be crucial for sustaining financial stability.

Income Statement

Keyera Corp. shows a stable income statement with a consistent gross profit margin around 15% over the years, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 7.3% in the TTM, reflecting better profitability. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative recently, which is a concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36 in the TTM, indicating a balanced leverage. Return on equity has improved to 18.7%, showcasing effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which limits a full assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.29, indicating potential cash flow constraints. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.72, suggesting decent cash generation relative to profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.27B	7.14B	7.05B	7.06B	4.98B	3.01B
Gross Profit	1.45B	1.39B	1.43B	1.18B	1.05B	940.54M
EBITDA	1.22B	1.16B	1.24B	1.02B	893.99M	816.92M
Net Income	530.39M	486.63M	424.03M	328.29M	324.21M	62.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.64B	8.76B	8.78B	8.57B	8.13B	7.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.95M	118.44M	20.09M	-209.40M	15.94M	2.90M
Total Debt	3.84B	3.90B	4.29B	3.90B	3.70B	3.43B
Total Liabilities	7.81B	5.92B	6.00B	5.75B	5.47B	4.80B
Stockholders Equity	2.83B	2.83B	2.78B	2.82B	2.66B	2.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	652.31M	1.01B	272.80M	29.40M	67.21M	27.84M
Operating Cash Flow	906.04M	1.27B	975.49M	925.33M	583.84M	688.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-257.30M	-235.31M	-819.71M	-843.92M	-397.12M	-748.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-649.49M	-935.65M	-134.26M	-100.65M	-173.85M	53.80M

Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 42.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.60, below the 50-day MA of 44.62, and above the 200-day MA of 42.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEY.

Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRP	―	C$73.37B	17.29	15.25%	4.77%	-2.93%	23.33%
KEY	―	C$9.78B	18.44	18.92%	4.94%	1.57%	55.82%
PPL	―	$30.94B	17.93	10.69%	5.26%	-3.86%	-9.35%
ALA	―	$12.77B	16.35	9.15%	2.93%	-1.95%	78.65%
Sector *	―	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GEI	―	$3.94B	24.71	17.22%	7.06%	-14.27%	-11.69%
TWM	―	C$120.94M	-2.06	-21.94%	―	-30.00%	84.31%

Keyera Corp. Corporate Events

Keyera Corp. Seeks Amendments for Hybrid Notes

Keyera Corp. has initiated a consent solicitation process to amend the terms of its outstanding hybrid notes, aiming to align them with its most recent hybrid securities. This move is expected to standardize the treatment of its hybrid notes, potentially impacting their credit rating positively, and requires approval from a significant majority of noteholders by the end of October 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Closes $2.8 Billion Notes Offering to Fund Major Acquisition

Keyera Corp. has successfully closed its $2.3 billion senior notes and $500 million hybrid notes offerings, which will partially finance the acquisition of Plains Midstream Canada’s natural gas liquids business and select U.S. assets for $5.15 billion. This acquisition, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, will significantly enhance Keyera’s market position in the NGL sector, contingent on regulatory approvals. The company is also engaging in a consent solicitation to amend the terms of its existing hybrid notes, ensuring equal ranking in payment rights with the new hybrid notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Stability

Keyera Corp. recently held its earnings call, which highlighted a strong financial performance and significant growth through strategic acquisitions and project expansions. Despite a decrease in net earnings and marketing realized margins, the company demonstrated robust growth in key segments and maintained a strong financial position. The overall sentiment of the call was positive, with a focus on long-term growth and stability.

Keyera Corp. Boosts Quarterly Dividend by 4% for Q3 2025

Keyera Corp. has announced a 4% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it from $0.52 to $0.54 per common share, amounting to $2.16 annually. The dividend for the third quarter of 2025 will be paid on September 29, 2025, to shareholders of record on September 15, 2025. This move reflects Keyera’s commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may strengthen its position in the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Reports Strong Q2 Results and Announces Dividend Increase

Keyera Corp. reported strong second-quarter financial results, driven by robust performance in its Gathering and Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments. The company announced a 4% dividend increase, reflecting confidence in its stable cash flows. Keyera also highlighted the transformational acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL assets, which is expected to enhance service offerings and create value for customers and shareholders. Despite a decline in the Marketing segment due to lower commodity prices, Keyera maintained a strong financial position with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio below its target range. The company remains on track to achieve its growth targets, supported by new long-term contracts and strategic project expansions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Boosts Quarterly Dividend by 4%

Keyera Corp. has announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it from $0.52 to $0.54 per common share, which translates to an annual dividend of $2.16. This decision reflects the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to delivering value to its shareholders, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to investors and solidifying its position in the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Schedules Q2 2025 Results Release and Conference Call

Keyera Corp. has announced the release of its second quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for August 7, 2025, before market opening. The announcement will be followed by a conference call and webcast, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction. This event is significant for investors and analysts as it offers a detailed view of Keyera’s operational and financial health, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.