Keyera Corp. (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$9.28B
• Dividend Yield: 4.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: -4.09%
• EPS Growth: -3.57%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,005
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 229,153,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,043,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,197,989
• PEG Ratio: 1.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$51.20
• Price Target Upside: 16.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: C$48.00 ▲(9.19% Upside)

Keyera Corp.'s overall stock score is driven by solid financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's strong profitability and operational efficiency are offset by recent revenue decline and cash flow challenges. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, while valuation metrics indicate moderate pricing with an attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Fee-for-Service Margin Growth

The significant growth in fee-for-service margins indicates strong demand and utilization of Keyera's services, enhancing long-term revenue stability.

Sustainability Achievements

Achieving sustainability targets early enhances Keyera's reputation and positions it favorably in an industry increasingly focused on environmental impact.

Contracting and Project Advancements

Securing significant new contracts and advancing major projects ensures future revenue streams and strengthens Keyera's market position.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue growth can impact long-term financial stability, necessitating strategic adjustments to sustain profitability.

Marketing Segment Underperformance

Underperformance in the Marketing segment reflects challenges in adapting to market conditions, potentially affecting overall profitability.

Deferred Growth Capital Spending

Deferring growth capital spending may delay expansion efforts, impacting Keyera's ability to capitalize on future opportunities.

Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keyera Corp. engages in the energy infrastructure business in Canada. The company operates through Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing segments. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate the economic components primarily natural gas liquids; and provides condensate handling services. This segment has approximately 4,400 kilometers of gathering pipelines; and holds interests in 12 active gas plants in Alberta. The Liquids Infrastructure segment provides gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, liquids blending, and terminalling services for natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil through a network of facilities that include underground NGL storage caverns, above ground storage tanks, NGL fractionation and de-ethanization facilities, pipelines, rail and truck terminals, NGL blending facilities, and the Alberta EnviroFuels facility. This segment also produces iso-octane. The Marketing segment engages in the marketing of propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane, as well as liquids blending activities. The company was formerly known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund and changed its name to Keyera Corp. in January 2011. Keyera Corp. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Keyera Corp. generates revenue primarily through its midstream services, which include natural gas processing, transportation, and storage. The company earns income from fee-based contracts with producers, where it charges for processing and transporting natural gas. Key revenue streams include processing fees from its natural gas plants, transportation fees from its pipeline system, and revenue from the sale of by-products such as natural gas liquids. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other energy companies and long-term contracts with producers help to stabilize and diversify Keyera's earnings. The company also benefits from its operational efficiencies and scale, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing and enhance profitability.

Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keyera Corp. demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and operational efficiency. While leverage is managed well, recent revenue decline and cash flow challenges pose risks. Continued focus on revenue growth and cash flow management will be crucial for sustaining financial stability.

Income Statement

Keyera Corp. shows a stable income statement with a consistent gross profit margin around 15% over the years, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 7.3% in the TTM, reflecting better profitability. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative recently, which is a concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36 in the TTM, indicating a balanced leverage. Return on equity has improved to 18.7%, showcasing effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which limits a full assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.29, indicating potential cash flow constraints. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.72, suggesting decent cash generation relative to profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.27B	7.14B	7.05B	7.06B	4.98B	3.01B
Gross Profit	1.45B	1.39B	1.43B	1.18B	1.05B	940.54M
EBITDA	1.22B	1.16B	1.24B	1.02B	893.99M	816.92M
Net Income	530.39M	486.63M	424.03M	328.29M	324.21M	62.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.64B	8.76B	8.78B	8.57B	8.13B	7.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.95M	118.44M	20.09M	-209.40M	15.94M	2.90M
Total Debt	3.84B	3.90B	4.29B	3.90B	3.70B	3.43B
Total Liabilities	7.81B	5.92B	6.00B	5.75B	5.47B	4.80B
Stockholders Equity	2.83B	2.83B	2.78B	2.82B	2.66B	2.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	652.31M	1.01B	272.80M	29.40M	67.21M	27.84M
Operating Cash Flow	906.04M	1.27B	975.49M	925.33M	583.84M	688.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-257.30M	-235.31M	-819.71M	-843.92M	-397.12M	-748.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-649.49M	-935.65M	-134.26M	-100.65M	-173.85M	53.80M

Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 43.96
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.03, above the 50-day MA of 43.89, and above the 200-day MA of 42.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEY.

Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRP	72 Outperform	$79.72B	23.48	12.96%	4.39%	-3.98%	-33.45%
KEY	70 Outperform	C$9.28B	17.49	15.28%	4.78%	-4.09%	-3.57%
PPL	67 Neutral	$31.39B	19.26	10.22%	5.13%	2.81%	-14.92%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
ALA	63 Neutral	$13.05B	17.44	9.01%	2.82%	-0.68%	49.61%
GEI	59 Neutral	$4.08B	26.29	16.47%	7.02%	-12.18%	-29.17%
TWM	51 Neutral	C$128.93M	-2.19	-33.62%	―	-23.30%	76.16%

Keyera Corp. Corporate Events

Keyera Corp. Reports Q3 2025 Results and Achieves Emissions Target Early

Keyera Corp. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a year-over-year growth in fee-for-service realized margins, driven by increased throughput and utilization across its integrated system. Despite a decrease in the Marketing segment’s realized margin due to lower liquids blending contributions and reduced condensate import volumes, Keyera maintains confidence in its long-term marketing outlook. The company also achieved a significant milestone by meeting its 2025 GHG emissions intensity reduction target ahead of schedule. Additionally, Keyera finalized financing for its acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL business, with the transaction expected to close in early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend for 2025

Keyera Corp. announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.54 per common share for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on December 31, 2025, to shareholders of record on December 15, 2025. This announcement underscores Keyera’s commitment to delivering value to its shareholders, reflecting its stable financial performance and strategic positioning within the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Completes Consent Solicitation for Hybrid Notes

Keyera Corp. has successfully completed its consent solicitation for its outstanding hybrid notes, receiving strong support from noteholders. This approval allows for amendments to the indentures governing the notes, resulting in the exchange of the 2019 and 2021 Notes for new notes with similar economic terms but without automatic conversion provisions. This alignment of hybrid instruments is expected to maintain consistent credit ratings and strengthen Keyera’s financial positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Schedules Q3 2025 Results Release and Conference Call

Keyera Corp. announced the release of its third quarter 2025 financial results scheduled for November 14, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Seeks Amendments for Hybrid Notes

Keyera Corp. has initiated a consent solicitation process to amend the terms of its outstanding hybrid notes, aiming to align them with its most recent hybrid securities. This move is expected to standardize the treatment of its hybrid notes, potentially impacting their credit rating positively, and requires approval from a significant majority of noteholders by the end of October 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Closes $2.8 Billion Notes Offering to Fund Major Acquisition

Keyera Corp. has successfully closed its $2.3 billion senior notes and $500 million hybrid notes offerings, which will partially finance the acquisition of Plains Midstream Canada’s natural gas liquids business and select U.S. assets for $5.15 billion. This acquisition, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, will significantly enhance Keyera’s market position in the NGL sector, contingent on regulatory approvals. The company is also engaging in a consent solicitation to amend the terms of its existing hybrid notes, ensuring equal ranking in payment rights with the new hybrid notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.