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Parkland Corporation (TSE:PKI)
:PKI
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Parkland (PKI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:PKI

Parkland

(TSX:PKI)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$41.00
▲(5.83% Upside)
Parkland's stock score is primarily driven by its strong cash flow generation and operational improvements, despite high debt levels and a revenue decline. The technical analysis supports a positive trend, while the valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued, balanced by a decent dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Offer
Texas-based Sunoco LP has offered to acquire Parkland for ~US$9 billion, which represents the best near-term outcome for PKI shareholders given ongoing shareholder overhang and recent operational challenges.
Shareholder Premium
Parkland shareholders will receive a ~25% premium to the share trading price at the time of the deal announcement.
Negative Factors
Earnings
PKI reported softer Q4/24 results due in part to weaker refinery margins.
Valuation
PKI is trading at the low end of its historical valuation range, significantly below its Retail/Commercial peer groups.

Parkland (PKI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Parkland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionParkland Corporation operates food and convenience stores in Canada, the United States, the Caribbean region, and Central and South America. The company operates through four segments: Canada, USA, Supply, and International. The Canada segment owns, operates, supports, and distributes a coast-to-coast network of retail convenience, food, and fuel sites, as well as commercial cardlocks and bulk fuel facilities; and provides propane, heating oil, lubricants, and other related services to commercial, industrial, and residential customers. It operates 1,812 retail gas stations under the Ultramar, Esso, Fas Gas Plus, Chevron, and Pioneer brands; and a convenience store under the On the Run brand. This segment also delivers bulk fuel, bulk and cylinder exchange propane, heating oil, lubricants, and other related products and services to customers in oil and gas, construction, mining, forestry, fishing, and transportation industries under the Ultramar, Bluewave Energy, Pipeline Commercial, Chevron, Columbia Fuels, and Sparlings Propane brands. The International segment operates retail service stations under the Esso, Shell, and Sol brands; and delivers and supplies gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, propane, and lubricants. This segment also provides commercial solar and other renewable energy solutions. The USA segment operates a network of gas stations; and delivers bulk fuel, lubricants, and other related products and services under the Rhinehart Oil, Farstad Oil, Conrad & Bischoff, Tropic Oil and NFN National Fuel Network brands. The Supply segment manufactures transportation fuels; transports, stores, and markets fuels, crude oil, and liquid petroleum gases; and manufactures and sells aviation fuel to airlines. The company was formerly known as Parkland Fuel Corporation and changed its name to Parkland Corporation in May 2020. Parkland Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyParkland Corporation generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale and distribution of fuel and petroleum products. The company operates an extensive network of retail gas stations and convenience stores, which contribute significantly to its income. Additionally, Parkland serves commercial clients by supplying bulk fuel and by offering tailored energy solutions to various industries such as agriculture, mining, and transportation. The wholesale division further boosts revenue by distributing fuel to third-party retailers and resellers. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships in the energy sector also enhance Parkland's market reach and financial performance, enabling the company to capitalize on synergies and expand its service offerings.

Parkland Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in membership growth, cost reductions, and international segment performance. However, these were offset by challenges in share performance, refinery and U.S. segment issues, and negative same-store sales growth. The strategic review aims to address these challenges.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
JOURNIE Rewards Membership Growth
Increased JOURNIE Rewards membership to more than 6 million members through strategic partnerships and targeted promotions, leading to impressive market share gains in 2024.
Cost Reduction Achievements
Reduced operating and MG&A costs by $50 million compared to 2023, more than offsetting inflationary pressures.
International Segment Growth
International segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $171 million, up 9% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Guyana and Suriname.
Dividend Increase
Announced a 3% dividend increase, marking the 13th consecutive annual increase.
Negative Updates
Underperformance of Parkland Shares
Parkland shares have underperformed and do not reflect the intrinsic value of the company, leading to a strategic review.
Refinery and U.S. Segment Challenges
Refinery utilization impacted by an unplanned outage and unfavorable North American crack spreads. U.S. business faced unfavorable market conditions and lower demand.
Decline in U.S. Adjusted EBITDA
U.S. segment delivered $32 million in adjusted EBITDA, down $7 million from prior year due to market headwinds, including compressed retail fuel margins and hurricanes.
Negative Same-Store Sales Growth
Same-store sales growth was negative for the quarter, primarily driven by reduced traffic at M&M Food Market and the impact of the Canada Post strike.
Company Guidance
During the Parkland Q4 and Year-End Analyst Conference Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, projecting an adjusted EBITDA of $1.95 billion. The call highlighted that the refined margins environment was more favorable than anticipated, with the Burnaby Refinery expected to operate at 90% to 95% utilization despite a three-week maintenance period in Q1. The company also maintained its commitment to a leverage ratio target range of 2x to 3x and announced a 3% dividend increase, reflecting its 13th consecutive annual dividend growth. Parkland outlined its strategy to reduce operating and MG&A costs by $50 million compared to 2023, exceeding inflationary pressures, and identified approximately 1,500 position reductions through divestments and synergy initiatives. Furthermore, the company noted that the JOURNIE Rewards membership grew to over 6 million, contributing to market share gains in 2024. Despite challenges in the U.S. segment, Parkland remains optimistic about capturing increased volumes and margins as market conditions improve, supported by a diversified business model and resilient execution.

Parkland Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Parkland demonstrates a stable financial position with moderate profitability and strong cash flow generation. The income and balance sheets suggest operational efficiency and a high leverage level, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Continued focus on revenue growth and debt management will be crucial for sustaining financial health.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The income statement shows a stable gross profit margin of 10.44% for TTM, with a net profit margin of 0.70%. Revenue has shown a slight decline in the TTM compared to the previous annual period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable at 2.81% and 5.25%, respectively, showcasing decent operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 2.09, suggesting a higher leverage which can pose risks in a volatile market. However, the equity ratio of 22.62% reflects a reasonable proportion of assets funded by equity. ROE stands at 6.20% for TTM, showing satisfactory returns on shareholder investments.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights strong free cash flow generation with a TTM free cash flow to net income ratio of 4.67. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 7.68, indicating robust cash flow generation relative to net income, providing a buffer for debt servicing and investments. However, free cash flow has decreased slightly from the previous annual period, which may need monitoring.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue27.55B28.30B32.45B35.46B21.47B14.01B
Gross Profit2.98B2.89B3.15B3.28B2.34B1.73B
EBITDA1.55B1.32B1.70B1.47B1.08B1.02B
Net Income298.00M127.00M471.00M310.00M97.00M112.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.62B14.04B13.87B14.29B11.55B9.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments439.00M385.00M387.00M653.00M284.00M262.00M
Total Debt6.46B6.64B6.36B6.97B5.56B4.16B
Total Liabilities10.44B10.88B10.69B11.25B9.22B6.83B
Stockholders Equity3.17B3.17B3.18B3.04B1.97B1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.03B960.00M1.30B823.00M508.00M589.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.66B1.53B1.78B1.33B904.00M934.00M
Investing Cash Flow-542.00M-524.00M-516.00M-1.23B-1.51B-515.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.01B-1.04B-1.57B276.00M655.00M-367.00M

Parkland Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price38.74
Price Trends
50DMA
38.52
Positive
100DMA
37.81
Positive
200DMA
35.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
55.78
Neutral
STOCH
62.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PKI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.58, above the 50-day MA of 38.52, and above the 200-day MA of 35.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PKI.

Parkland Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.01B7.483.39%5.36%4.10%-61.80%
65
Neutral
C$6.76B22.659.44%3.67%-10.91%-21.14%
$8.98B6.8911.56%7.11%
$3.11B27.1617.22%6.33%
$4.12B26.278.08%4.18%
73
Outperform
C$10.16B19.1518.92%4.67%1.57%55.82%
68
Neutral
C$3.82B59.595.17%5.32%1.92%11.06%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PKI
Parkland
38.86
5.35
15.97%
WCPRF
Whitecap Resources
7.32
0.75
11.42%
GBNXF
Gibson Energy
18.60
3.69
24.75%
PREKF
PrairieSky Royalty
17.49
-0.73
-4.01%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
44.50
5.25
13.38%
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
25.01
1.10
4.60%

Parkland Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Parkland Corporation Achieves Record Q2 Results Amid Strategic Advancements
Positive
Aug 5, 2025

Parkland Corporation reported a record second quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $508 million in 2025, showcasing the strength of its diversified business model. The company’s Canadian and International operations demonstrated resilience, with notable performance in the Burnaby refinery contributing to higher refining margins. However, the USA segment faced challenges due to competitive pricing and macroeconomic pressures. The company is advancing a significant transaction with Sunoco, which is expected to enhance its market position and cash flow potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Parkland to Release Q2 2025 Results Amid Sunoco Arrangement
Neutral
Jul 22, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced that it will release its 2025 second quarter results on August 5, 2025, after market close. Due to an ongoing arrangement with Sunoco LP, Parkland will not hold a conference call or webcast for this quarter’s results. This decision may impact stakeholders’ usual access to detailed financial discussions and insights.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Corporation Announces Shareholder Approval of Key Arrangement with Sunoco LP
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the successful approval of all matters at its 2025 Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, including a significant arrangement with Sunoco LP. The arrangement, pending regulatory and court approvals, is expected to close in the latter half of 2025. This development reflects Parkland’s strategic efforts to enhance its market position and operational capabilities, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by aligning with its growth and performance objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Parkland Executes Supplemental Indentures Amid Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the execution of supplemental indentures for its senior notes following successful consent solicitations related to its acquisition by Sunoco LP. These amendments eliminate the obligation for a ‘Change of Control Offer’ due to the transaction and redefine ‘Change of Control’ to recognize Sunoco as a ‘Qualified Owner.’ The changes are binding on all note holders and will only become inoperative if the transaction is not completed or applicable fees are not paid.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland’s Strategic Move with Sunoco Gains Key Endorsements
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced that proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis have endorsed its proposed arrangement with Sunoco LP, highlighting strategic and financial benefits. The arrangement promises enhanced diversification and improved capital markets access, backed by fairness opinions from major financial institutions. Parkland’s Board of Directors unanimously recommends shareholders vote in favor of the arrangement at the upcoming meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Corporation Declares Q2 2025 Dividend
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Parkland Corporation has announced a dividend of $0.36 per share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 20, 2025. This announcement reflects Parkland’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and highlights its strong operational performance and strategic positioning in the fuel distribution and convenience retail industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
Parkland Completes Consent Solicitations for Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the successful completion of consent solicitations related to its acquisition by Sunoco LP. The company received the necessary consents to amend the indentures governing its senior notes, eliminating the obligation to make a ‘Change of Control Offer’ and recognizing Sunoco as a ‘Qualified Owner.’ This move facilitates the acquisition process and impacts the company’s financial obligations, potentially affecting stakeholders and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Announces Strategic Transaction with Sunoco for Long-Term Growth
Positive
May 28, 2025

Parkland Corporation has announced a strategic transaction with Sunoco LP, which involves the filing of a Management Information Circular for an upcoming shareholder meeting. This transaction is set to deliver immediate value to shareholders and position the combined company for long-term growth. The arrangement offers a 25% premium based on recent share prices and provides shareholders with flexible consideration options, including cash and SunocoCorp common units. The merger will create one of the largest independent fuel distributors in the Americas, expected to achieve significant synergies and improve financial performance. Sunoco will maintain a Canadian headquarters and continue investing in Canadian operations, reinforcing its commitment to the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Initiates Consent Solicitations Amid Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
May 27, 2025

Parkland Corporation has initiated consent solicitations to amend the indentures governing its outstanding notes in connection with its acquisition by Sunoco LP. This move is aimed at eliminating the obligation to make a ‘Change of Control Offer’ and redefining ‘Change of Control’ to recognize Sunoco as a qualified owner. The transaction has not resulted in any downgrade of the notes’ ratings by major rating agencies, indicating a stable outlook for Parkland’s financial instruments post-acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025