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Parkland Corporation (TSE:PKI)
:PKI

Parkland (PKI) AI Stock Analysis

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Parkland

(TSX:PKI)

Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$42.00
▲(9.12%Upside)
Parkland's strong strategic initiatives, particularly the arrangement with Sunoco, enhance its growth prospects and provide a significant boost to its overall score. Stable financial performance supports this outlook, though high leverage and valuation concerns moderate the score.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Offer
Sunoco's acquisition offer includes a ~25% premium to where Parkland shares were trading at the time of the deal announcement.
Dividend Increase
PKI announced a modest 3% bump in its quarterly dividend to $0.36/share.
Negative Factors
Operational Challenges
PKI reported softer Q4/24 results due in part to weaker refinery margins.
Valuation Concerns
PKI is trading at the low end of its historical valuation range, significantly below its Retail/Commercial peer groups.

Parkland (PKI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Parkland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionParkland Corporation (PKI) is an established player in the energy sector, primarily engaged in the marketing, distribution, and retailing of petroleum products and related services. The company operates across various segments, including retail, commercial, and wholesale, serving customers in Canada, the United States, and the Caribbean. Parkland's core products include gasoline, diesel, propane, lubricants, and other petroleum products, which are delivered through an extensive network of service stations, terminals, and distribution points.
How the Company Makes MoneyParkland Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and petroleum products across its retail, commercial, and wholesale channels. In the retail segment, Parkland operates a vast network of branded service stations under various banners, offering fuel and convenience store products directly to consumers. The commercial segment serves businesses and industries with bulk fuel deliveries, while the wholesale segment supplies fuel to resellers and other distributors. Additionally, the company benefits from its lubricants and propane sales, which contribute to its diversified revenue streams. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships also play a crucial role in expanding Parkland's market reach and enhancing its supply chain capabilities, thereby supporting revenue growth.

Parkland Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 1.50%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in membership growth, cost reductions, and international segment performance. However, these were offset by challenges in share performance, refinery and U.S. segment issues, and negative same-store sales growth. The strategic review aims to address these challenges.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
JOURNIE Rewards Membership Growth
Increased JOURNIE Rewards membership to more than 6 million members through strategic partnerships and targeted promotions, leading to impressive market share gains in 2024.
Cost Reduction Achievements
Reduced operating and MG&A costs by $50 million compared to 2023, more than offsetting inflationary pressures.
International Segment Growth
International segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $171 million, up 9% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Guyana and Suriname.
Dividend Increase
Announced a 3% dividend increase, marking the 13th consecutive annual increase.
Negative Updates
Underperformance of Parkland Shares
Parkland shares have underperformed and do not reflect the intrinsic value of the company, leading to a strategic review.
Refinery and U.S. Segment Challenges
Refinery utilization impacted by an unplanned outage and unfavorable North American crack spreads. U.S. business faced unfavorable market conditions and lower demand.
Decline in U.S. Adjusted EBITDA
U.S. segment delivered $32 million in adjusted EBITDA, down $7 million from prior year due to market headwinds, including compressed retail fuel margins and hurricanes.
Negative Same-Store Sales Growth
Same-store sales growth was negative for the quarter, primarily driven by reduced traffic at M&M Food Market and the impact of the Canada Post strike.
Company Guidance
During the Parkland Q4 and Year-End Analyst Conference Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, projecting an adjusted EBITDA of $1.95 billion. The call highlighted that the refined margins environment was more favorable than anticipated, with the Burnaby Refinery expected to operate at 90% to 95% utilization despite a three-week maintenance period in Q1. The company also maintained its commitment to a leverage ratio target range of 2x to 3x and announced a 3% dividend increase, reflecting its 13th consecutive annual dividend growth. Parkland outlined its strategy to reduce operating and MG&A costs by $50 million compared to 2023, exceeding inflationary pressures, and identified approximately 1,500 position reductions through divestments and synergy initiatives. Furthermore, the company noted that the JOURNIE Rewards membership grew to over 6 million, contributing to market share gains in 2024. Despite challenges in the U.S. segment, Parkland remains optimistic about capturing increased volumes and margins as market conditions improve, supported by a diversified business model and resilient execution.

Parkland Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Parkland exhibits a stable financial position with moderate profitability and robust cash flow generation. The income statement reveals stable profit margins, but a slight decline in revenue. The balance sheet shows high leverage, posing potential risks, while cash flow indicates strong free cash flow generation.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The income statement shows a stable gross profit margin of 10.44% for TTM, with a net profit margin of 0.70%. Revenue has shown a slight decline in the TTM compared to the previous annual period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable at 2.81% and 5.25%, respectively, showcasing decent operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 2.09, suggesting a higher leverage which can pose risks in a volatile market. However, the equity ratio of 22.62% reflects a reasonable proportion of assets funded by equity. ROE stands at 6.20% for TTM, showing satisfactory returns on shareholder investments.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights strong free cash flow generation with a TTM free cash flow to net income ratio of 4.67. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 7.68, indicating robust cash flow generation relative to net income, providing a buffer for debt servicing and investments. However, free cash flow has decreased slightly from the previous annual period, which may need monitoring.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.18B28.30B32.45B35.46B21.47B14.01B
Gross Profit2.94B2.89B3.15B3.28B2.34B1.73B
EBITDA1.48B1.32B1.70B1.47B1.08B1.02B
Net Income196.00M127.00M471.00M310.00M97.00M112.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.87B14.04B13.87B14.29B11.55B9.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments387.00M385.00M387.00M653.00M284.00M262.00M
Total Debt6.36B6.64B6.36B6.97B5.56B4.16B
Total Liabilities10.69B10.88B10.69B11.25B9.22B6.83B
Stockholders Equity3.18B3.17B3.18B3.04B1.97B1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow915.00M960.00M1.30B823.00M508.00M589.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.50B1.53B1.78B1.33B904.00M934.00M
Investing Cash Flow-524.00M-524.00M-516.00M-1.23B-1.51B-515.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.03B-1.04B-1.57B276.00M655.00M-367.00M

Parkland Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price38.49
Price Trends
50DMA
37.80
Positive
100DMA
36.38
Positive
200DMA
34.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.22
Negative
RSI
55.19
Neutral
STOCH
72.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PKI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.11, above the 50-day MA of 37.80, and above the 200-day MA of 34.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PKI.

Parkland Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSWCP
77
Outperform
C$11.46B6.0316.40%10.82%5.56%35.85%
TSWCP
77
Outperform
C$11.46B6.0316.40%10.82%5.56%35.85%
TSTPZ
70
Outperform
C$3.91B71.434.22%5.35%2.02%12.06%
TSTPZ
70
Outperform
C$3.91B71.434.22%5.35%2.02%12.06%
68
Neutral
$15.14B9.956.38%5.21%4.16%-67.19%
TSKEY
67
Neutral
C$9.85B18.0419.55%4.84%8.00%52.89%
TSKEY
67
Neutral
C$9.85B18.0419.55%4.84%8.00%52.89%
TSPSK
65
Neutral
$5.56B24.928.39%4.41%1.73%3.68%
TSPKI
60
Neutral
C$6.71B34.216.21%3.74%-9.79%-49.13%
TSGEI
60
Neutral
$3.89B23.9617.23%7.23%-5.85%-8.05%
TSGEI
60
Neutral
$3.89B23.9617.23%7.23%-5.85%-8.05%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PKI
Parkland
38.49
2.40
6.65%
TSE:PSK
PrairieSky Royalty
23.60
-1.98
-7.75%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
23.78
2.88
13.80%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
23.78
2.88
13.80%
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
9.31
-0.10
-1.06%
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
9.31
-0.10
-1.06%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
42.98
7.37
20.70%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
42.98
7.37
20.70%
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
25.43
2.17
9.33%
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
25.43
2.17
9.33%

Parkland Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Corporation Announces Shareholder Approval of Key Arrangement with Sunoco LP
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the successful approval of all matters at its 2025 Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, including a significant arrangement with Sunoco LP. The arrangement, pending regulatory and court approvals, is expected to close in the latter half of 2025. This development reflects Parkland’s strategic efforts to enhance its market position and operational capabilities, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by aligning with its growth and performance objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Parkland Executes Supplemental Indentures Amid Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the execution of supplemental indentures for its senior notes following successful consent solicitations related to its acquisition by Sunoco LP. These amendments eliminate the obligation for a ‘Change of Control Offer’ due to the transaction and redefine ‘Change of Control’ to recognize Sunoco as a ‘Qualified Owner.’ The changes are binding on all note holders and will only become inoperative if the transaction is not completed or applicable fees are not paid.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland’s Strategic Move with Sunoco Gains Key Endorsements
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced that proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis have endorsed its proposed arrangement with Sunoco LP, highlighting strategic and financial benefits. The arrangement promises enhanced diversification and improved capital markets access, backed by fairness opinions from major financial institutions. Parkland’s Board of Directors unanimously recommends shareholders vote in favor of the arrangement at the upcoming meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Corporation Declares Q2 2025 Dividend
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Parkland Corporation has announced a dividend of $0.36 per share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 20, 2025. This announcement reflects Parkland’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and highlights its strong operational performance and strategic positioning in the fuel distribution and convenience retail industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
Parkland Completes Consent Solicitations for Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the successful completion of consent solicitations related to its acquisition by Sunoco LP. The company received the necessary consents to amend the indentures governing its senior notes, eliminating the obligation to make a ‘Change of Control Offer’ and recognizing Sunoco as a ‘Qualified Owner.’ This move facilitates the acquisition process and impacts the company’s financial obligations, potentially affecting stakeholders and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Announces Strategic Transaction with Sunoco for Long-Term Growth
Positive
May 28, 2025

Parkland Corporation has announced a strategic transaction with Sunoco LP, which involves the filing of a Management Information Circular for an upcoming shareholder meeting. This transaction is set to deliver immediate value to shareholders and position the combined company for long-term growth. The arrangement offers a 25% premium based on recent share prices and provides shareholders with flexible consideration options, including cash and SunocoCorp common units. The merger will create one of the largest independent fuel distributors in the Americas, expected to achieve significant synergies and improve financial performance. Sunoco will maintain a Canadian headquarters and continue investing in Canadian operations, reinforcing its commitment to the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Initiates Consent Solicitations Amid Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
May 27, 2025

Parkland Corporation has initiated consent solicitations to amend the indentures governing its outstanding notes in connection with its acquisition by Sunoco LP. This move is aimed at eliminating the obligation to make a ‘Change of Control Offer’ and redefining ‘Change of Control’ to recognize Sunoco as a qualified owner. The transaction has not resulted in any downgrade of the notes’ ratings by major rating agencies, indicating a stable outlook for Parkland’s financial instruments post-acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Parkland Corporation Reports Strong Q1 2025 Recovery Amid Strategic Challenges
Positive
May 6, 2025

Parkland Corporation reported a recovery in its first quarter of 2025, overcoming challenges from the previous year, including a significant impact from exiting the California compliance market. The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $375 million, driven by strong performance in its international segment and improved refining margins. Despite macroeconomic and regulatory challenges, Parkland’s diverse portfolio showed resilience, with notable growth in the international segment and a robust driving season anticipated in Canada. However, the company faced a decrease in adjusted EBITDA in its Canadian and USA segments due to strategic decisions and market conditions.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunoco to Acquire Parkland in $9.1 Billion Deal
Positive
May 5, 2025

Sunoco LP has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Parkland Corporation in a transaction valued at approximately U.S.$9.1 billion. This acquisition is expected to create the largest independent fuel distributor in the Americas, offering significant financial benefits and operational synergies. The deal includes a 25% premium for Parkland shareholders and promises continued investment in Canadian operations, including maintaining the Calgary headquarters and investing in Parkland’s refinery. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
ISS Endorses Parkland’s Board Amidst Simpson’s Control Bid
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. (ISS) has expressed support for Parkland’s current board of directors, raising concerns about Simpson Oil Limited’s attempt to gain control. ISS criticized Simpson’s lack of detailed strategy and leadership planning, recommending against their nominee for interim CEO. Parkland’s board, endorsed by ISS, is seen as well-structured to continue strategic initiatives and deliver shareholder value. Shareholders are urged to vote for Parkland’s nominees to ensure experienced governance and value maximization.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Parkland Corporation Sets Date for Q1 2025 Results and Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

Parkland Corporation has announced the release date for its 2025 first quarter results, which will be shared after market close on May 5, 2025, followed by a webcast and conference call on May 6, 2025. The company will also hold its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on the same day, urging shareholders to vote using the BLUE Proxy for director nominees. This announcement is part of Parkland’s ongoing efforts to engage with stakeholders and maintain transparency in its operations, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder relations.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Counters Simpson Oil’s Control Bid, Reaffirms Board’s Leadership
Negative
Apr 22, 2025

Parkland Corporation has published a presentation to counter claims by Simpson Oil Limited, asserting that Parkland’s independent and experienced Board is best suited to lead the company’s Strategic Review and maximize shareholder value. The company criticizes Simpson’s attempt to gain control without offering a premium and highlights the lack of qualifications and independence in Simpson’s proposed board nominees. Parkland emphasizes its commitment to delivering long-term value for all shareholders and accuses Simpson of prioritizing personal financial interests over those of other shareholders.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Parkland Announces CEO Succession and Strategic Review Amidst Market Challenges
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced that Bob Espey will step down as President and CEO, with Michael Jennings appointed as Executive Chair. The company is undergoing a strategic review to maximize shareholder value, considering options like asset divestments and business combinations. Preliminary Q1 2025 results show an expected Adjusted EBITDA of $375 million, with challenges from macroeconomic and regulatory volatility affecting operations, particularly in the U.S. and California.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Announces Board Nominees and CFO Appointment Amid Strategic Review
Neutral
Apr 7, 2025

Parkland Corporation, a company involved in the energy sector, has announced the filing of its management information circular for the upcoming annual general meeting of shareholders. The company has added three nominees from Simpson Oil Limited to its board slate, including one on the special committee overseeing a strategic review. This move comes amid Simpson’s attempt to nominate nine directors, which Parkland views as a bid to gain control without a premium. Parkland has also appointed Brad Monaco as the permanent Chief Financial Officer, highlighting his strong leadership and strategic capabilities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025