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Parkland (TSE:PKI)
TSX:PKI
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Parkland (PKI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:PKI

Parkland

(TSX:PKI)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$42.00
▲(9.20%Upside)
Parkland's strong strategic initiatives, particularly the arrangement with Sunoco, enhance its growth prospects and provide a significant boost to its overall score. Stable financial performance supports this outlook, though high leverage and valuation concerns moderate the score.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Offer
Sunoco's acquisition offer includes a ~25% premium to where Parkland shares were trading at the time of the deal announcement.
Dividend Increase
PKI announced a modest 3% bump in its quarterly dividend to $0.36/share, offering an attractive yield.
Valuation
Longer-term upside is believed to lie in Parkland's shares, particularly given its compressed valuation.
Negative Factors
Market Valuation
PKI is trading at the low end of its historical valuation range, significantly below its Retail/Commercial peer groups.
Operational Challenges
PKI reported softer Q4/24 results due in part to weaker refinery margins.
Operational Downtime
Unexpected refinery downtime trims the Q4/24 outlook.

Parkland (PKI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Parkland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionParkland Corporation operates food and convenience stores in Canada, the United States, the Caribbean region, and Central and South America. The company operates through four segments: Canada, USA, Supply, and International. The Canada segment owns, operates, supports, and distributes a coast-to-coast network of retail convenience, food, and fuel sites, as well as commercial cardlocks and bulk fuel facilities; and provides propane, heating oil, lubricants, and other related services to commercial, industrial, and residential customers. It operates 1,812 retail gas stations under the Ultramar, Esso, Fas Gas Plus, Chevron, and Pioneer brands; and a convenience store under the On the Run brand. This segment also delivers bulk fuel, bulk and cylinder exchange propane, heating oil, lubricants, and other related products and services to customers in oil and gas, construction, mining, forestry, fishing, and transportation industries under the Ultramar, Bluewave Energy, Pipeline Commercial, Chevron, Columbia Fuels, and Sparlings Propane brands. The International segment operates retail service stations under the Esso, Shell, and Sol brands; and delivers and supplies gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, propane, and lubricants. This segment also provides commercial solar and other renewable energy solutions. The USA segment operates a network of gas stations; and delivers bulk fuel, lubricants, and other related products and services under the Rhinehart Oil, Farstad Oil, Conrad & Bischoff, Tropic Oil and NFN National Fuel Network brands. The Supply segment manufactures transportation fuels; transports, stores, and markets fuels, crude oil, and liquid petroleum gases; and manufactures and sells aviation fuel to airlines. The company was formerly known as Parkland Fuel Corporation and changed its name to Parkland Corporation in May 2020. Parkland Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyParkland Corporation generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale and distribution of fuel and petroleum products. The company operates an extensive network of retail gas stations and convenience stores, which contribute significantly to its income. Additionally, Parkland serves commercial clients by supplying bulk fuel and by offering tailored energy solutions to various industries such as agriculture, mining, and transportation. The wholesale division further boosts revenue by distributing fuel to third-party retailers and resellers. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships in the energy sector also enhance Parkland's market reach and financial performance, enabling the company to capitalize on synergies and expand its service offerings.

Parkland Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 1.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in membership growth, cost reductions, and international segment performance. However, these were offset by challenges in share performance, refinery and U.S. segment issues, and negative same-store sales growth. The strategic review aims to address these challenges.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
JOURNIE Rewards Membership Growth
Increased JOURNIE Rewards membership to more than 6 million members through strategic partnerships and targeted promotions, leading to impressive market share gains in 2024.
Cost Reduction Achievements
Reduced operating and MG&A costs by $50 million compared to 2023, more than offsetting inflationary pressures.
International Segment Growth
International segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $171 million, up 9% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Guyana and Suriname.
Dividend Increase
Announced a 3% dividend increase, marking the 13th consecutive annual increase.
Negative Updates
Underperformance of Parkland Shares
Parkland shares have underperformed and do not reflect the intrinsic value of the company, leading to a strategic review.
Refinery and U.S. Segment Challenges
Refinery utilization impacted by an unplanned outage and unfavorable North American crack spreads. U.S. business faced unfavorable market conditions and lower demand.
Decline in U.S. Adjusted EBITDA
U.S. segment delivered $32 million in adjusted EBITDA, down $7 million from prior year due to market headwinds, including compressed retail fuel margins and hurricanes.
Negative Same-Store Sales Growth
Same-store sales growth was negative for the quarter, primarily driven by reduced traffic at M&M Food Market and the impact of the Canada Post strike.
Company Guidance
During the Parkland Q4 and Year-End Analyst Conference Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, projecting an adjusted EBITDA of $1.95 billion. The call highlighted that the refined margins environment was more favorable than anticipated, with the Burnaby Refinery expected to operate at 90% to 95% utilization despite a three-week maintenance period in Q1. The company also maintained its commitment to a leverage ratio target range of 2x to 3x and announced a 3% dividend increase, reflecting its 13th consecutive annual dividend growth. Parkland outlined its strategy to reduce operating and MG&A costs by $50 million compared to 2023, exceeding inflationary pressures, and identified approximately 1,500 position reductions through divestments and synergy initiatives. Furthermore, the company noted that the JOURNIE Rewards membership grew to over 6 million, contributing to market share gains in 2024. Despite challenges in the U.S. segment, Parkland remains optimistic about capturing increased volumes and margins as market conditions improve, supported by a diversified business model and resilient execution.

Parkland Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Parkland demonstrates stable financial performance with decent operational efficiency and strong cash flow generation. However, challenges in revenue growth and high leverage pose potential risks.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The income statement shows a stable gross profit margin of 10.44% for TTM, with a net profit margin of 0.70%. Revenue has shown a slight decline in the TTM compared to the previous annual period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable at 2.81% and 5.25%, respectively, showcasing decent operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 2.09, suggesting a higher leverage which can pose risks in a volatile market. However, the equity ratio of 22.62% reflects a reasonable proportion of assets funded by equity. ROE stands at 6.20% for TTM, showing satisfactory returns on shareholder investments.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights strong free cash flow generation with a TTM free cash flow to net income ratio of 4.67. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 7.68, indicating robust cash flow generation relative to net income, providing a buffer for debt servicing and investments. However, free cash flow has decreased slightly from the previous annual period, which may need monitoring.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.18B28.30B32.45B35.46B21.47B14.01B
Gross Profit2.94B2.89B3.15B3.28B2.34B1.73B
EBITDA1.48B1.32B1.70B1.47B1.08B1.02B
Net Income196.00M127.00M471.00M310.00M97.00M112.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.97B14.04B13.87B14.29B11.55B9.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments362.00M385.00M387.00M653.00M284.00M262.00M
Total Debt6.61B6.64B6.36B6.97B5.56B4.16B
Total Liabilities10.81B10.88B10.69B11.25B9.22B6.83B
Stockholders Equity3.16B3.17B3.18B3.04B1.97B1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow915.00M960.00M1.30B823.00M508.00M589.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.50B1.53B1.78B1.33B904.00M934.00M
Investing Cash Flow-524.00M-524.00M-516.00M-1.23B-1.51B-515.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.03B-1.04B-1.57B276.00M655.00M-367.00M

Parkland Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price38.46
Price Trends
50DMA
38.24
Positive
100DMA
36.69
Positive
200DMA
35.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.11
Negative
RSI
60.08
Neutral
STOCH
57.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PKI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.41, above the 50-day MA of 38.24, and above the 200-day MA of 35.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PKI.

Parkland Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
C$6.71B34.186.21%3.69%-9.79%-49.13%
67
Neutral
$15.15B9.896.22%5.21%4.47%-70.67%
$9.50B7.3311.56%6.77%
$2.95B25.1017.23%0.33%
$4.12B26.248.08%0.24%
80
Outperform
C$9.87B18.0719.55%4.83%8.00%52.89%
70
Outperform
C$3.94B71.974.22%5.19%2.02%12.06%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PKI
Parkland
38.89
2.00
5.42%
WCPRF
Whitecap Resources
7.82
0.82
11.71%
GBNXF
Gibson Energy
18.07
2.62
16.96%
PREKF
PrairieSky Royalty
17.55
-1.55
-8.12%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
43.41
6.67
18.15%
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
26.08
2.75
11.79%

Parkland Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Parkland to Release Q2 2025 Results Amid Sunoco Arrangement
Neutral
Jul 22, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced that it will release its 2025 second quarter results on August 5, 2025, after market close. Due to an ongoing arrangement with Sunoco LP, Parkland will not hold a conference call or webcast for this quarter’s results. This decision may impact stakeholders’ usual access to detailed financial discussions and insights.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Corporation Announces Shareholder Approval of Key Arrangement with Sunoco LP
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the successful approval of all matters at its 2025 Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, including a significant arrangement with Sunoco LP. The arrangement, pending regulatory and court approvals, is expected to close in the latter half of 2025. This development reflects Parkland’s strategic efforts to enhance its market position and operational capabilities, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by aligning with its growth and performance objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Parkland Executes Supplemental Indentures Amid Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the execution of supplemental indentures for its senior notes following successful consent solicitations related to its acquisition by Sunoco LP. These amendments eliminate the obligation for a ‘Change of Control Offer’ due to the transaction and redefine ‘Change of Control’ to recognize Sunoco as a ‘Qualified Owner.’ The changes are binding on all note holders and will only become inoperative if the transaction is not completed or applicable fees are not paid.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland’s Strategic Move with Sunoco Gains Key Endorsements
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced that proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis have endorsed its proposed arrangement with Sunoco LP, highlighting strategic and financial benefits. The arrangement promises enhanced diversification and improved capital markets access, backed by fairness opinions from major financial institutions. Parkland’s Board of Directors unanimously recommends shareholders vote in favor of the arrangement at the upcoming meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Corporation Declares Q2 2025 Dividend
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Parkland Corporation has announced a dividend of $0.36 per share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 20, 2025. This announcement reflects Parkland’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and highlights its strong operational performance and strategic positioning in the fuel distribution and convenience retail industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
Parkland Completes Consent Solicitations for Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

Parkland Corporation announced the successful completion of consent solicitations related to its acquisition by Sunoco LP. The company received the necessary consents to amend the indentures governing its senior notes, eliminating the obligation to make a ‘Change of Control Offer’ and recognizing Sunoco as a ‘Qualified Owner.’ This move facilitates the acquisition process and impacts the company’s financial obligations, potentially affecting stakeholders and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Announces Strategic Transaction with Sunoco for Long-Term Growth
Positive
May 28, 2025

Parkland Corporation has announced a strategic transaction with Sunoco LP, which involves the filing of a Management Information Circular for an upcoming shareholder meeting. This transaction is set to deliver immediate value to shareholders and position the combined company for long-term growth. The arrangement offers a 25% premium based on recent share prices and provides shareholders with flexible consideration options, including cash and SunocoCorp common units. The merger will create one of the largest independent fuel distributors in the Americas, expected to achieve significant synergies and improve financial performance. Sunoco will maintain a Canadian headquarters and continue investing in Canadian operations, reinforcing its commitment to the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Parkland Initiates Consent Solicitations Amid Sunoco Acquisition
Neutral
May 27, 2025

Parkland Corporation has initiated consent solicitations to amend the indentures governing its outstanding notes in connection with its acquisition by Sunoco LP. This move is aimed at eliminating the obligation to make a ‘Change of Control Offer’ and redefining ‘Change of Control’ to recognize Sunoco as a qualified owner. The transaction has not resulted in any downgrade of the notes’ ratings by major rating agencies, indicating a stable outlook for Parkland’s financial instruments post-acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PKI) stock is a Hold with a C$43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Parkland stock, see the TSE:PKI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Parkland Corporation Reports Strong Q1 2025 Recovery Amid Strategic Challenges
Positive
May 6, 2025

Parkland Corporation reported a recovery in its first quarter of 2025, overcoming challenges from the previous year, including a significant impact from exiting the California compliance market. The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $375 million, driven by strong performance in its international segment and improved refining margins. Despite macroeconomic and regulatory challenges, Parkland’s diverse portfolio showed resilience, with notable growth in the international segment and a robust driving season anticipated in Canada. However, the company faced a decrease in adjusted EBITDA in its Canadian and USA segments due to strategic decisions and market conditions.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sunoco to Acquire Parkland in $9.1 Billion Deal
Positive
May 5, 2025

Sunoco LP has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Parkland Corporation in a transaction valued at approximately U.S.$9.1 billion. This acquisition is expected to create the largest independent fuel distributor in the Americas, offering significant financial benefits and operational synergies. The deal includes a 25% premium for Parkland shareholders and promises continued investment in Canadian operations, including maintaining the Calgary headquarters and investing in Parkland’s refinery. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
ISS Endorses Parkland’s Board Amidst Simpson’s Control Bid
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. (ISS) has expressed support for Parkland’s current board of directors, raising concerns about Simpson Oil Limited’s attempt to gain control. ISS criticized Simpson’s lack of detailed strategy and leadership planning, recommending against their nominee for interim CEO. Parkland’s board, endorsed by ISS, is seen as well-structured to continue strategic initiatives and deliver shareholder value. Shareholders are urged to vote for Parkland’s nominees to ensure experienced governance and value maximization.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025