Whitecap Resources (TSE:WCP)
TSX:WCP
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Whitecap Resources
(TSX:WCP)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$18.00
â–²(29.22% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue and cash generation but with commodity-driven volatility and some margin compression) and supportive technicals (clear uptrend with positive momentum). Valuation adds support via a moderate P/E and ~4.6% dividend yield, while the latest earnings call was broadly positive with raised near-term production guidance, strong capital returns, and improved credit profile, tempered by commodity-price and operational constraint risks.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash flow
Sustained operating cash flow (~$2.7B in 2025) with OCF exceeding net income indicates high earnings quality and durable internal funding. This supports ongoing reinvestment, dividend capacity and buybacks across cycles, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Commodity price exposure
Hedging covers only ~25%–29% of 2026 volumes and management highlights remaining exposure; combined with commodity cyclicality, this leaves a material portion of cash flows sensitive to oil and gas prices, creating durable earnings volatility and planning risk across 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash flow
Sustained operating cash flow (~$2.7B in 2025) with OCF exceeding net income indicates high earnings quality and durable internal funding. This supports ongoing reinvestment, dividend capacity and buybacks across cycles, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Whitecap Resources (WCP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$19.46B
Dividend Yield6.33%
Average Volume (3M)7.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth80.64%
EPS Growth-50.20%
CountryCA
Employees567
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding1,213,800,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,101,035
30 Day Avg. Volume7,566,501
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)2.21
P/FCF Ratio18.74
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$17.90Price Target Upside28.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$7.08B
Whitecap Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Whitecap Resources Inc., oil and gas company, acquires and develops petroleum and natural gas properties in Canada. Its principal properties are located in West Central Alberta, British Columbia, Southeast Saskatchewan, West Central Saskatchewan, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Whitecap makes money primarily by producing crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas and selling these commodities into Canadian and North American markets. Revenue is largely a function of (1) production volumes (barrels of oil equi...
Whitecap Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, meaningful cost and capital efficiency gains, substantial free cash flow generation (~$900M), disciplined returns to shareholders ($736M dividends and $193M buybacks), upgraded credit profile, and sizable reserve and drilling inventory (2.2 billion BOE 2P, ~10,500 locations). Management acknowledged a weaker commodity backdrop (WTI down ~15%, AECO < $1.70/GJ) and some near-term constraints (Musreau capacity), but they have mitigation plans, long-term gas marketing agreements, solid liquidity, and conservative hedging in place. On balance the positive operational and financial achievements substantially outweigh the challenges highlighted.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Production and Per-Share Outperformance
Q4 production averaged over 379,000 BOE/day, exceeding expectations, and Q4 production per share was the highest quarterly result in company history, driven by accelerated timing and asset-level outperformance.
Negative Updates
Weaker Commodity Price Environment
2025 commodity backdrop was weaker: WTI averaged just under USD 65/bbl (down ~15% year-over-year) and AECO natural gas averaged under $1.70/GJ, pressuring realized commodity revenues and prompting a strategy to diversify away from AECO exposure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Production and Per-Share Outperformance
Q4 production averaged over 379,000 BOE/day, exceeding expectations, and Q4 production per share was the highest quarterly result in company history, driven by accelerated timing and asset-level outperformance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Whitecap guided first‑quarter 2026 production of 375,000–380,000 BOE/d (up from its internal forecast of 370,000–375,000) and reiterated full‑year 2026 production guidance of 370,000–375,000 BOE/d on planned capital spending of $2.0–$2.1 billion; their planning case assumes ~USD 65/bbl WTI (light oil differential $4, condensate differential $2, CAD$0.74) and $2/GJ AECO, and they currently have ~25% of 2026 oil hedged with a floor just under CAD 85/bbl and ~29% of 2026 gas hedged at ~C$3.75/GJ (consistent with a 25%–35% hedging policy and incremental layering into 2027 via costless collars). Financially they finished the year with $3.4 billion net debt (<1x annualized Q4 funds flow), ~$1.5 billion liquidity, and tax guidance of 3%–5% of funds flow for 2026 (5%–8% thereafter); operational upside cited includes Kaybob debottlenecked capacity of 115,000–120,000 BOE/d by year‑end, Musreau rising from ~17,000–18,000 BOE/d to a ~20,000 BOE/d nameplate after Q3 gas‑lift, ~90,000 BOE/d of near‑term productive capacity across the portfolio, and expected asset‑level free cash flow at Kaybob of $650–$850 million at $60–$70 WTI requiring only 50%–55% reinvestment.Whitecap Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.34B | 5.17B | 3.34B | 3.23B | 3.92B | 2.28B |
| Gross Profit | 2.44B | 1.61B | 2.07B | 2.03B | 2.72B | 1.48B |
| EBITDA | 3.76B | 2.95B | 1.94B | 2.07B | 2.46B | 5.13B |
| Net Income | 844.30M | 984.60M | 812.30M | 889.00M | 1.68B | 1.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.67B | 19.29B | 9.95B | 9.60B | 9.53B | 6.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 73.00M | 59.40M | 362.30M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 3.57B | 4.40B | 1.14B | 1.38B | 1.87B | 1.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.86B | 8.29B | 4.20B | 4.13B | 4.48B | 3.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.81B | 11.00B | 5.75B | 5.48B | 5.05B | 3.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.17B | 609.40M | 696.80M | 617.60M | 1.49B | 564.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.53B | 2.69B | 1.83B | 1.74B | 2.18B | 1.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.68B | -1.35B | -563.80M | -765.60M | -2.50B | -387.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.77B | -1.64B | -907.40M | -976.90M | 313.40M | -736.53M |
Whitecap Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
13.93
Price Trends
14.06
Negative
12.77
Positive
11.41
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
42.47
Neutral
30.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.80, below the 50-day MA of 14.06, and above the 200-day MA of 11.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WCP.
Whitecap Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$19.46B | 11.60 | 10.14% | 6.33% | 80.64% | -50.20% | |
73 Outperform | C$7.98B | 33.57 | 7.89% | 3.76% | -6.33% | -8.64% | |
73 Outperform | C$18.24B | 11.74 | 15.52% | 2.95% | 17.91% | 11.40% | |
70 Outperform | C$9.14B | -15.31 | 15.77% | 2.99% | -15.23% | 50.79% | |
69 Neutral | C$25.47B | 89.45 | 8.69% | 4.79% | 12.30% | -79.31% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$6.15B | -110.02 | -1.84% | 1.91% | -4.03% | -126.25% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
16.03
8.72
119.38%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
12.74
9.26
265.67%
TSE:PSK
PrairieSky Royalty
34.31
12.28
55.75%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
65.80
8.22
14.28%
TSE:ARX
ARC Resources
32.22
7.83
32.12%
TSE:SCR
Strathcona Resources
42.68
24.53
135.18%
Whitecap Resources Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Whitecap Confirms April Dividend and Sets Date for Q1 2026 Results Call
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Whitecap Resources Inc., a leading Canadian oil and natural gas producer operating in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, focuses on responsible resource development and shareholder returns. The company has built a reputation for profitable gr...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Whitecap Confirms March Dividend, Underscoring Stable Payout Strategy
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Whitecap Resources Inc. has confirmed a cash dividend of Cdn. $0.0608 per common share for March 2026 operations, payable on April 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 31, 2026. The payout, designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian ta...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Whitecap Confirms February Dividend and Sets Date for 2025 Results Call
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Whitecap Resources Inc., a Canadian oil and natural gas producer operating in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, highlights its strategy of combining responsible resource development with profitable growth and a sustainable dividend. The comp...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Whitecap Resources Adds Veteran Energy Accountant Scott Althen to Board as Bryksa Retires
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
Whitecap Resources has announced the appointment of veteran energy-sector accountant Scott Althen to its board of directors, effective March 1, 2026, while director Craig Bryksa has retired to pursue other opportunities. Althen, who recently retir...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.