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Whitecap Resources (TSE:WCP)
TSX:WCP
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Whitecap Resources (WCP) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:WCP

Whitecap Resources

(TSX:WCP)

Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
C$12.00
▲(13.53%Upside)
Whitecap Resources receives a strong overall score due to its robust financial recovery, attractive valuation, and positive corporate developments. Technical indicators also support a bullish outlook, further boosted by strategic initiatives and effective cost management. Some risks remain, particularly around profitability margins and equity returns.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Reported Q4 cash flow came out higher than consensus expectations.
Operational Strength
The continued strength of recent condensate wells pushes positive sentiment for WCP's operational accomplishments.
Strategic Growth
Whitecap Resources completed its merger with VRN, indicating strategic growth and expansion.
Negative Factors
Debt Management
Net debt as a percentage of PDP value has decreased and currently stands at a low 13% of PDP value.
Financial Flexibility
Whitecap Resources announced $270 million from non-core asset sales, aiding in financial flexibility.

Whitecap Resources (WCP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Whitecap Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWhitecap Resources Inc., oil and gas company, acquires and develops petroleum and natural gas properties in Canada. Its principal properties are located in West Central Alberta, British Columbia, Southeast Saskatchewan, West Central Saskatchewan, and Southwest Saskatchewan. As of February 14, 2022, it had a total proved plus probable reserves of 701,829 thousand barrels of oil equivalent. Whitecap Resources Inc. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyWhitecap Resources makes money primarily through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, which are sold in the commodities market. The company's revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Whitecap's earnings are influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production volumes, and operating costs. The company also engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price volatility, which can impact its financial performance. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions of high-potential assets further contribute to Whitecap's revenue growth, allowing the company to expand its resource base and improve operational efficiency.

Whitecap Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.73%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant strategic advancements and successful integration of the Veren assets, leading to increased production and financial strength. Despite challenges with low AECO prices and commodity price volatility, the company showcased strong operational and financial performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Veren Business Combination Completion
Successfully completed the Veren business combination on May 12, increasing production to approximately 365,000 BOE per day and enterprise value to over $15 billion.
Strong Second Quarter Production
Achieved strong second quarter production of 292,754 BOE per day, exceeding internal forecasts with Montney, Duvernay, and Southeast Saskatchewan assets contributing significantly.
Successful Integration of Veren Assets
Integration of Veren assets and staff was successful, leading to consolidation of corporate costs and improved credit profile.
Operational and Financial Performance
Funds flow was strong at $713 million, up 6% per share from the previous year, with a net debt to annualized funds flow of approximately 1x.
Duvernay and Montney Asset Advancements
Duvernay production at Kaybob exceeded forecasts, and Montney wells at Gold Creek and Karr performed in line with internal expectations.
Debt Management and Credit Rating
Closed an issuance of investment-grade senior notes with a fixed coupon of 3.761% and achieved a BBB rating by DBRS.
Negative Updates
Low AECO Prices
Despite strong profitability, AECO prices averaged less than $2 per Mcf in the second quarter, impacting natural gas revenue.
Volatility in Commodity Prices
Experienced significant volatility in WTI prices, averaging below USD 65 per barrel, affecting the overall market environment.
Company Guidance
During the Whitecap Resources Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, significant guidance was provided on multiple metrics. The company reported a production increase to approximately 365,000 BOE per day following the completion of the Veren business combination on May 12, 2025, which elevated their enterprise value to over $15 billion. The second quarter saw strong production figures of 292,754 BOE per day, surpassing internal forecasts due to outperforming asset level performance in both conventional and unconventional portfolios. Looking forward, 75% of the capital program for the second half of 2025 is allocated to unconventional Montney and Duvernay assets, with 7 active rigs in operation, while the remaining 25% is directed towards conventional assets in Saskatchewan and Central Alberta. Financially, Whitecap reported a second quarter funds flow of $713 million or $0.75 per share, with a net debt of $3.3 billion, equating to a net debt to annualized funds flow of approximately 1x. The company also achieved a tax recovery of $7.4 million due to lower commodity prices and upheld a sustainable base dividend of $0.73 per share per annum, comfortably covered by funds flow at current commodity prices.

Whitecap Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Whitecap Resources demonstrates strong financial recovery with robust revenue and cash flow growth. However, there are areas of concern such as the decline in net profit margins and return on equity, which could pose risks to sustained profitability and efficiency.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Whitecap Resources has shown a strong recovery in its income statement metrics. The company achieved a significant gross profit margin improvement from 48.5% in 2023 to 60% in 2024. However, the net profit margin decreased slightly to 20.6% in 2024 from 27.5% in 2023, indicating increased costs or other financial pressures. Despite this, the revenue growth rate from 2023 to 2024 was impressive at 21.9%, showcasing strong top-line growth. The lack of EBIT margin is a weak point, but EBITDA margin remained robust at 54.4% in 2024.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Whitecap Resources reflects a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 57.8% in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.20, showing a reduction in leverage compared to previous years. However, the return on equity decreased from 16.2% in 2023 to 14.1% in 2024, suggesting a decline in efficiency or profitability relative to equity.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow statement indicates healthy cash generation, with a free cash flow of $696.8 million in 2024, a growth of 12.8% from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.26, reflecting efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio slightly decreased to 0.86, indicating potential challenges in maintaining cash flow relative to net earnings.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.94B3.23B4.78B2.69B931.90M
Gross Profit2.36B1.40B3.11B1.73B453.24M
EBITDA2.18B2.16B3.13B2.99B-2.00B
Net Income812.30M889.00M1.68B1.78B-1.84B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.95B9.60B9.53B6.88B3.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments362.30M32.90M-29.00M-29.67M-71.59M
Total Debt1.14B1.38B1.87B1.09B1.17B
Total Liabilities4.20B4.13B4.48B3.14B2.38B
Stockholders Equity5.75B5.48B5.05B3.74B996.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow696.80M617.60M1.49B564.70M248.91M
Operating Cash Flow1.83B1.74B2.18B1.12B450.18M
Investing Cash Flow-563.80M-765.60M-2.50B-387.38M-261.03M
Financing Cash Flow-907.40M-976.90M313.40M-736.53M-189.15M

Whitecap Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.57
Price Trends
50DMA
9.18
Positive
100DMA
8.71
Positive
200DMA
9.20
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.36
Negative
RSI
75.52
Negative
STOCH
91.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.67, above the 50-day MA of 9.18, and above the 200-day MA of 9.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.52 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:WCP.

Whitecap Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$13.02B7.2111.56%6.90%12.28%16.78%
59
Neutral
£7.36B-2.81-10.36%105.01%-1.03%-98.53%
$5.04B11.7313.64%1.45%
$4.12B26.248.08%0.24%
$2.05B7.7616.78%
77
Outperform
C$7.16B10.1012.43%3.17%796.07%-35.52%
70
Outperform
C$3.88B12.9511.17%6.82%2.80%-7.94%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
10.57
0.85
8.69%
MEGEF
MEG Energy
19.81
0.37
1.90%
PREKF
PrairieSky Royalty
17.55
-1.55
-8.12%
NUVSF
NuVista Energy
10.37
0.96
10.20%
TSE:PEY
Peyto Exploration & Dev
19.35
5.91
43.97%
TSE:SCR
Strathcona Resources
33.40
3.28
10.89%

Whitecap Resources Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Whitecap Resources Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Increased Production and Revenue
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. reported strong financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025, with significant increases in petroleum and natural gas revenues and net income compared to the previous year. The company’s average daily production rose substantially, driven by increased crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas outputs. This robust performance underscores Whitecap’s solid market positioning and operational efficiency, benefiting stakeholders through increased dividends and a strong financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Whitecap Resources Confirms July Dividend and Announces Q2 Results Call
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. has confirmed a monthly dividend of Cdn. $0.0608 per share for July, payable on August 15, 2025, to shareholders of record on July 31, 2025. The company also announced its intention to release its second quarter 2025 results on July 23, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on July 24, 2025. These announcements highlight Whitecap’s commitment to shareholder returns and transparency, potentially strengthening its market position and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Whitecap Resources Secures $300 Million in Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 19, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. has successfully closed a $300 million offering of senior unsecured notes due in 2028, with a fixed interest rate of 3.761% per annum. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Whitecap Resources Announces $300 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. has announced a $300 million offering of senior unsecured notes, with a 3.761% interest rate due in 2028. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes. The company’s credit rating was recently upgraded to BBB by Morningstar DBRS, reflecting an improved credit profile. This offering is expected to enhance Whitecap’s financial flexibility and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Whitecap Resources Announces June 2025 Dividend
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. has announced a monthly cash dividend of Cdn. $0.0608 per common share for June 2025, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record on June 30, 2025. This announcement reflects Whitecap’s commitment to providing sustainable dividends while maintaining its growth strategy, potentially reinforcing its market position and offering value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Whitecap Resources to End U.S. SEC Reporting Obligations
Neutral
May 22, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. announced its intention to terminate its U.S. reporting obligations with the SEC for its common shares, effective 90 days from filing, subject to SEC approval. The company’s shares will remain listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and it will continue to fulfill its Canadian disclosure obligations, ensuring transparency for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackDividends
Whitecap Resources Secures TSX Approval for Share Buyback and Confirms May Dividend
Positive
May 15, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. has received approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange to renew its normal course issuer bid, allowing the company to repurchase up to 10% of its public float over the next year. This move is intended to enhance shareholder value by repurchasing shares when their market price does not reflect their underlying value. Additionally, Whitecap has confirmed a monthly dividend of Cdn. $0.0608 per share for May, reinforcing its commitment to providing sustainable dividends to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Whitecap Resources Completes Merger with Veren, Boosts Production Outlook
Positive
May 12, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. has successfully completed its strategic merger with Veren Inc., making it the seventh largest oil and natural gas producer in Canada. This merger enhances Whitecap’s position as a major player in the industry, with increased production capabilities and a strong portfolio of drilling opportunities. The company plans to leverage this expanded asset base to improve profitability and shareholder returns. Additionally, Whitecap has entered agreements to sell non-strategic assets for $270 million, which will be used to strengthen its balance sheet. The company has also updated its 2025 production guidance, projecting increased production levels and significant capital expenditures focused on its Montney and Duvernay assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCP) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Whitecap Resources stock, see the TSE:WCP Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Whitecap Resources and Veren Finalize Acquisition Plan
Neutral
May 8, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. and Veren Inc. have received the final court order for their planned business combination, where Whitecap will acquire all outstanding shares of Veren. This strategic move, expected to complete by May 12, 2025, will lead to Veren’s delisting from the TSX and NYSE, impacting its trading status and reporting obligations in the U.S. market.

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Whitecap and Veren Shareholders Approve Business Combination
Neutral
May 6, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. and Veren Inc. have announced that their shareholders have approved a business combination, with significant majorities in favor from both companies. This merger, pending court approval and other conditions, is expected to close soon, resulting in Veren’s delisting from the TSX and NYSE, impacting its trading status and reporting obligations in the U.S.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Whitecap Resources Secures Strong Shareholder Support at Annual Meeting
Positive
Apr 29, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. announced that all matters presented at its annual shareholders’ meeting were approved, including the election of nine directors, appointment of auditors, and amendments to the award incentive plan. The meeting also saw the approval of a non-binding advisory resolution on executive compensation, reflecting strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and strategic initiatives.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025