NuVista Energy (NVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.49B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: -6.14%
• EPS Growth: 14.09%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 88
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 193,254,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 881,569
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,341,430
• PEG Ratio: -0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$18.50
• Price Target Upside: 2.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: C$20.00 ▲(10.25% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and a conservative balance sheet, partially offset by weaker free-cash-flow generation. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~10.9), and the proposed Ovintiv acquisition with a stated premium is a supportive corporate catalyst, while technical signals are neutral-to-mixed.

NuVista Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NuVista Energy Ltd., an oil and natural gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It primarily focuses on the condensate rich Montney formation in the Wapiti area of the Alberta Deep Basin. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

NuVista Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that it extracts from its properties. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of these commodities in both domestic and international markets. NuVista's earnings are influenced by the prevailing market prices of oil and natural gas, its production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies and service providers can also impact revenue by facilitating access to new technologies, expertise, and markets, thereby optimizing production capabilities and cost management.

NuVista Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NuVista Energy exhibits strong operational performance with solid margins and a healthy balance sheet. Revenue has slightly decreased, but effective cost management keeps profitability stable. The reduction in debt enhances financial stability, though attention is needed on cash flow management due to declining Free Cash Flow.

Income Statement

NuVista Energy has shown a slight decrease in revenue in the latest year, with a Total Revenue of $1.215 billion compared to $1.263 billion the previous year. Gross Profit Margin remains robust, indicating effective cost management. The Net Profit Margin declined slightly, reflecting a drop in profitability. The absence of EBIT in the latest report is notable, but EBITDA remains strong, suggesting good operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's Debt-to-Equity ratio has improved, indicating a lower reliance on debt to finance operations, which reduces financial risk. The Return on Equity remains healthy, demonstrating effective use of shareholder funds. The Equity Ratio suggests a strong capital structure, with a significant portion of assets financed through equity.

Cash Flow

Operating Cash Flow remains strong, but Free Cash Flow has decreased, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio indicates that the company generates sufficient cash to cover its net income. However, the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate has declined, which could impact future flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.18B	1.22B	1.26B	1.75B	885.29M	424.64M
Gross Profit	825.63M	788.15M	804.36M	1.34B	819.33M	48.35M
EBITDA	735.78M	733.47M	767.13M	1.07B	562.80M	-38.84M
Net Income	328.31M	305.72M	367.68M	631.04M	264.67M	-197.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.67B	3.45B	3.06B	2.82B	2.39B	2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	0.00	0.00	41.89M	-122.03M	-125.96M
Total Debt	420.81M	288.07M	305.05M	332.12M	541.26M	706.36M
Total Liabilities	1.23B	1.10B	943.02M	886.17M	956.17M	1.00B
Stockholders Equity	2.45B	2.35B	2.12B	1.94B	1.44B	1.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	78.45M	105.98M	160.14M	428.64M	50.74M	-32.91M
Operating Cash Flow	537.23M	600.25M	721.34M	844.82M	338.58M	147.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-451.25M	-499.58M	-531.59M	-442.09M	-176.26M	-201.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-85.97M	-100.67M	-231.65M	-360.83M	-162.32M	54.23M

NuVista Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.93, above the 50-day MA of 18.03, and above the 200-day MA of 15.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NVA.

NuVista Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTE	75 Outperform	$3.54B	16.51	5.16%	2.07%	-8.89%	―
NVA	74 Outperform	C$3.49B	11.16	13.57%	―	-6.14%	14.09%
ATH	68 Neutral	$3.16B	7.62	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
TVE	67 Neutral	C$3.77B	-40.23	-4.70%	1.91%	-1.36%	-149.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
POU	65 Neutral	C$3.26B	2.39	41.81%	2.84%	-32.36%	282.99%
IPCO	60 Neutral	C$2.77B	59.82	3.59%	―	-9.12%	-70.87%

NuVista Energy Corporate Events

Proxy Advisors Back NuVista’s Ovintiv Deal as Best Path for Shareholders

NuVista Energy announced that independent proxy advisory firms, including Institutional Shareholder Services, have recommended that shareholders vote in favour of its proposed plan of arrangement under which Ovintiv Inc. would acquire the company through its subsidiary Ovintiv Canada ULC. The transaction offers NuVista shareholders a choice between all-cash, all-share, or a combination of cash and Ovintiv stock, at terms ISS highlighted as the result of a robust sales process that produced a higher, largely cash-based offer exceeding NuVista’s historical market prices over the past 15 years, supporting the board’s view that the deal delivers accelerated value and represents the best strategic path forward for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NVA) stock is a Buy with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NuVista Energy stock, see the TSE:NVA Stock Forecast page.

Proxy Advisers Back NuVista’s Sale to Ovintiv, Citing Premium Valuation and Flexibility

NuVista Energy has secured recommendations from independent proxy advisory firms, including Institutional Shareholder Services, for shareholders to vote in favour of its proposed plan of arrangement under which Ovintiv Inc. would acquire NuVista through its subsidiary Ovintiv Canada ULC. The transaction offers NuVista shareholders the option to receive $18.00 in cash per share, 0.344 Ovintiv shares per NuVista share, or a mix of cash and shares, subject to proration limits, and ISS highlighted the enhanced valuation and larger cash component, noting that the consideration exceeds NuVista’s historical market prices over the past 15 years. NuVista’s board, backed by these endorsements, is urging shareholders to vote ahead of the January 21, 2026 proxy deadline and to elect their preferred form of consideration before the election cut-off, underscoring the deal as the best route to accelerate value and provide flexibility for investors seeking either immediate liquidity or ongoing exposure to Ovintiv.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NVA) stock is a Buy with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NuVista Energy stock, see the TSE:NVA Stock Forecast page.

NuVista Sets January Vote on Premium Ovintiv Takeover Offering Cash and Stock Mix

NuVista Energy has filed its management information circular and related materials for a special shareholder meeting to vote on a previously announced plan of arrangement under which Ovintiv Inc. will acquire NuVista. The deal offers NuVista shareholders (excluding Ovintiv and its affiliates) the choice of receiving cash at $18 per share, Ovintiv stock, or a mix of both, with the cash price representing a 21% premium to NuVista’s unaffected 20‑day volume‑weighted average price and exceeding any closing price over the past 15 years. The transaction is positioned as providing immediate value, liquidity, and ongoing upside via ownership of an approximately 10.6% stake in a larger, investment‑grade Ovintiv, giving NuVista investors exposure to a US$25 billion pro forma enterprise value, Ovintiv’s established positions in the Permian and Montney plays, and its growing dividend and capital return program. The special meeting is scheduled for January 23, 2026, in Calgary, with shareholders urged to review the circular and vote ahead of the proxy deadline.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NVA) stock is a Hold with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NuVista Energy stock, see the TSE:NVA Stock Forecast page.

NuVista Energy Reports Strong Q3 Results and Increased Production

NuVista Energy Ltd. reported its third-quarter financial and operational results, highlighting a production level of 67,680 Boe/d, slightly below its guidance. However, with the completion of third-party gas facility turnarounds and the commissioning of the Pipestone Gas Plant, production has increased to over 100,000 Boe/d. The company achieved strong financial performance with adjusted funds flow of $143.5 million and net earnings of $36.5 million for the quarter. NuVista also repurchased and canceled 3.4 million shares, maintaining a strong balance sheet with a favorable net debt ratio. The company’s operational efficiency has been bolstered by its two-rig drilling program and completion of 43 new wells, positioning it well for continued growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NVA) stock is a Hold with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NuVista Energy stock, see the TSE:NVA Stock Forecast page.

NuVista Energy to be Acquired by Ovintiv in $3.8 Billion Deal

NuVista Energy has entered into an agreement to be acquired by Ovintiv Inc. in a transaction valued at approximately $3.8 billion. The deal offers NuVista shareholders a 21% premium on their shares and provides a mix of cash and Ovintiv shares, allowing them to benefit from the combined company’s operations in major North American shale plays. This acquisition is expected to enhance shareholder value through synergies, increased liquidity, and potential dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NVA) stock is a Hold with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NuVista Energy stock, see the TSE:NVA Stock Forecast page.