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International Petroleum Corporation (TSE:IPCO)
TSX:IPCO

International Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) AI Stock Analysis

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International Petroleum Corporation

(TSX:IPCO)

Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$20.00
â–²( 3.68% Upside)
International Petroleum Corporation demonstrates solid financial health with strong balance sheet and operational efficiency. However, challenges such as declining revenue, negative free cash flow, and market volatility impact the outlook. The stock's valuation appears high, and technical indicators suggest neutral to bearish momentum, contributing to a moderate overall score.
Positive Factors
Project Development
IPC has done a solid job on ensuring the project's development timeline and costs remain on track.
Share Buyback Program
The active buyback program has helped bolster the share price as buybacks made up almost 15% of trading liquidity in 2024, growing to 25% in January 2025.
Negative Factors
Valuation Concerns
IPC's valuation has expanded materially over the past year, which could constrain near-term share performance.

International Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

International Petroleum Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInternational Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) is an independent oil and gas company that engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Operating primarily in Canada, Malaysia, and France, IPCO is committed to optimizing its portfolio of high-quality assets, leveraging its technical expertise, and ensuring sustainable and responsible resource management. The company focuses on enhancing shareholder value through strategic investments and operational excellence in its core sectors.
How the Company Makes MoneyInternational Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its exploration and production activities. The company benefits from its diversified asset base across multiple geographic regions, which allows it to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations. IPCO's revenue streams include the direct sale of hydrocarbons to refineries and other end-users, along with potential income from joint ventures or partnerships that optimize production efficiency and resource management. Additionally, IPCO may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable cash flows, further contributing to its financial performance.

International Petroleum Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
International Petroleum Corporation shows stable profitability with a decline in revenue growth as reflected by a Revenue Growth Rate of -3.28%. The balance sheet demonstrates financial stability with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50 and a strong equity position. Cash flow statements indicate improvements in free cash flow, yet challenges remain in free cash flow generation.
Income Statement
68
Positive
International Petroleum Corporation's revenue showed a decline in TTM, with a Revenue Growth Rate of -3.28% from the previous year. The Gross Profit Margin is at 22.55% for TTM, indicating moderate profitability. Net Profit Margin decreased to 9.59% in TTM from 11.19% the previous year, indicating a slight decline in net profitability. The EBIT Margin improved to 23.36%, showing operational efficiency despite revenue decline. Overall, the income statement reflects stable profitability with some pressure on revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.50, showing a conservative leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) is 9.48% for TTM, which is moderate but has decreased from the previous year's 10.88%. The Equity Ratio stands at 47.01% for TTM, indicating a solid equity base. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates financial stability with prudent leverage management.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is positive, as the negative free cash flow narrowed from -168,989,000 last year to -120,282,000 in TTM, indicating improvement. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 3.40, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio remains negative, indicating challenges in free cash flow generation. Overall, cash flow stability shows improvement but remains under pressure.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
883.26M913.18M853.91M1.23B741.03M340.84M
Gross Profit
199.14M210.17M362.60M497.58M243.91M-82.00M
EBIT
206.27M179.55M341.79M477.46M225.69M-85.54M
EBITDA
284.94M310.01M365.28M620.26M311.45M26.92M
Net Income Common Stockholders
84.72M102.20M172.95M337.68M146.03M-77.94M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
517.07M246.59M517.07M483.24M18.81M6.50M
Total Assets
2.06B1.95B2.06B1.68B1.27B1.33B
Total Debt
446.97M448.28M446.97M308.84M112.69M326.15M
Net Debt
-70.11M201.69M-70.11M-174.40M93.88M319.65M
Total Liabilities
982.73M1.01B982.73M714.29M426.13M624.67M
Stockholders Equity
1.08B939.32M1.08B965.14M847.39M708.32M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-120.28M-168.99M32.91M444.00M236.95M-938.00K
Operating Cash Flow
288.40M266.09M346.15M601.82M281.18M77.15M
Investing Cash Flow
-408.46M-434.86M-352.47M-157.81M-44.23M-105.79M
Financing Cash Flow
-142.58M-107.10M37.56M11.11M-224.58M19.91M

International Petroleum Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price19.29
Price Trends
50DMA
19.66
Negative
100DMA
19.41
Negative
200DMA
18.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
49.76
Neutral
STOCH
39.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IPCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.24, below the 50-day MA of 19.66, and above the 200-day MA of 18.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:IPCO.

International Petroleum Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSATH
80
Outperform
$2.63B5.5430.45%―15.99%1134.34%
TSTVE
78
Outperform
$2.22B9.0712.43%3.40%1.01%357.91%
TSPOU
75
Outperform
$2.74B1.7848.97%22.95%2.95%351.05%
TSNVA
74
Outperform
C$2.81B7.5016.78%―-15.57%-12.73%
TSFRU
69
Neutral
$2.04B12.6215.22%8.56%-1.62%12.60%
60
Neutral
C$2.20B20.388.83%―-7.83%-45.69%
57
Neutral
$7.06B3.07-3.48%5.79%0.59%-50.58%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
19.29
0.80
4.33%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
19.09
2.92
18.09%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
4.38
0.92
26.66%
TSE:NVA
NuVista Energy
13.98
0.67
5.03%
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
5.22
0.23
4.61%
TSE:FRU
Freehold Royalties
12.46
-0.11
-0.91%

International Petroleum Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call indicates a strong operational and financial performance with strategic progress in key projects like Blackrod Phase 1. Effective hedging strategies and a successful share repurchase program further highlight the company's robust management. However, negative free cash flow, increased net debt, and market volatility present challenges that the company must navigate.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production and Financial Performance
The company delivered 44,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q1, in line with guidance. Operating cash flow for Q1 was $75 million, with an EBITDA of $71 million.
Blackrod Phase 1 Progress
Significant progress on the Blackrod Phase 1 project, with $77 million spent in Q1. The project is on time and on budget, expected to deliver First Oil in 2026.
Effective Hedging Strategy
About 50% of WTI to WCS differential exposure hedged at $14 a barrel, 40% of Canadian crude at $71 WTI, and 40% of Brent exposure at $76, providing downside protection.
No Material Safety Incidents
No material safety incidents were reported in the first quarter, indicating strong health and safety management.
Share Repurchase Program
Purchased 75 million shares since inception at significantly low prices, creating value through buybacks. The company is close to completing its NCIB program.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow
Q1 free cash flow was minus $43 million, and full year forecast is between minus $135 million to minus $110 million, impacted by growth capital expenditure.
Increased Net Debt
Net debt increased by roughly $100 million due to heavy spending on Blackrod and share buybacks, totaling $314 million as of April 1, 2025.
Economic and Market Volatility
Concerns about the macro environment and potential impact on demand due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC's increased supply, contributing to lower oil prices.
Company Guidance
During IPC's 2025 First Quarter Results Update Presentation, the company provided a robust set of metrics reflecting strong performance. The portfolio achieved a production rate of 44,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, aligning with the guidance for the quarter. The full year production guidance remains unchanged at 43,000 to 45,000 barrels per day. Operating costs for Q1 were $17.30 per barrel, slightly below the full year guidance of $18 to $19. Capital expenditure for 2025 is set at US$320 million, with nearly $100 million spent in Q1, including $77 million on the Blackrod Phase 1 project. The company generated $75 million in operating cash flow for the first quarter, with a negative free cash flow of $43 million due to growth capital expenditure. The full year operating cash flow is projected to be between $240 million and $270 million. Net debt stood at US$314 million, with gross cash resources of US$140 million. The company has hedged 50% of its WTI to WCS differential exposure at $14 per barrel and 40% of its Canadian crude at a WTI price of $71. The share repurchase program has seen significant progress, with 5.7 million shares repurchased since December 2024, nearing three-quarters completion of the buyback program.

International Petroleum Corporation Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Completes Share Repurchase Under NCIB
Positive
May 19, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation announced the repurchase of 146,900 common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) during May 12-16, 2025. This initiative is part of a broader program announced in December 2024, allowing IPC to repurchase up to 7,465,356 shares over a year. The repurchased shares will be canceled, impacting the total number of outstanding shares and potentially enhancing shareholder value. This strategic move reflects IPC’s commitment to optimizing its capital structure and returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Positive
May 12, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 275,160 IPC common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) program from May 1 to 9, 2025. The repurchases were made on the Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with all shares to be canceled. This initiative is part of IPC’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. The NCIB allows for the repurchase of up to 7,465,356 shares by December 4, 2025, reflecting IPC’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders and optimizing its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corp. Reports 2025 AGM Results
Positive
May 7, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, held in Calgary, Alberta. The meeting set the number of directors at eight, with all eight nominees elected to the board. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was appointed as the auditor for the upcoming year. This announcement reinforces IPC’s stable governance and commitment to maintaining transparency and accountability, which is likely to bolster investor confidence and support its strategic growth in the oil and gas sector.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
International Petroleum Corp. Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Market Challenges
Positive
May 6, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation reported strong operational and financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with an average net daily production of 44,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company is advancing its Blackrod Phase 1 development project in Canada, maintaining its forecast for first oil by late 2026. Despite a challenging market environment with fluctuating oil prices, IPC’s financial performance remained robust, with operating cash flow of MUSD 75 and net results of MUSD 16 for the quarter. The company continues to execute its share buyback program, having completed 60% of the 2024/2025 target.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Results
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation announced the results of its normal course issuer bid, repurchasing a total of 230,435 common shares between April 22 and 30, 2025. These repurchases were part of IPC’s ongoing share repurchase program, which began in December 2024, and are conducted in compliance with EU and Canadian regulations. The repurchased shares will be canceled, impacting the total number of issued and outstanding shares. This move reflects IPC’s strategic focus on managing its share capital and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

Financial Disclosures
International Petroleum Corporation to Announce Q1 2025 Results
Neutral
Apr 28, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced that it will release its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025 on May 6, 2025. The results will be published at 07:30 CET, followed by an audiocast presentation at 09:00 CET. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Advances Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 213,960 common shares between April 14 and 21, 2025, as part of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB). The shares were repurchased on both the Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with all repurchased shares set to be cancelled. This move is part of IPC’s ongoing strategy to manage its share capital, potentially enhancing shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding. The NCIB allows for the repurchase of up to 7,465,356 shares by December 4, 2025, indicating IPC’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Positive
Apr 14, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 277,060 common shares between April 7 and 11, 2025, as part of its ongoing normal course issuer bid (NCIB). This initiative is in line with IPC’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value, with all repurchased shares set to be canceled. The NCIB allows for a maximum of 7,465,356 shares to be repurchased over a twelve-month period, demonstrating IPC’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and maintaining a strong market position.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Positive
Apr 7, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 206,940 common shares from April 1 to 4, 2025, as part of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) program. This initiative, conducted in compliance with EU and Canadian regulations, involved repurchasing shares on both Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with the repurchased shares set to be canceled. Since the program’s inception in December 2024, IPC has repurchased over 4.7 million shares, aiming to buy back up to 7.46 million shares by December 2025. This move is part of IPC’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the results of its normal course issuer bid, repurchasing a total of 199,956 common shares between March 24 and 31, 2025. The repurchases were conducted on both Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with all shares set to be canceled. This initiative is part of IPC’s strategy to manage its share capital effectively, potentially enhancing shareholder value. As of March 31, 2025, IPC has repurchased a total of 4,494,369 shares since the start of the program in December 2024, with a maximum of 7,465,356 shares allowed for repurchase by December 2025.

Shareholder Meetings
International Petroleum Corp. Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting Details
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

International Petroleum Corp. has announced its Annual General Meeting will be held on May 7, 2025, in Calgary, Alberta. The meeting will cover the presentation of audited financial statements, the election of directors, and the appointment of auditors. Shareholders holding Euroclear Registered Common Shares will need to follow specific instructions to vote. The announcement outlines the procedural details for shareholders and emphasizes the absence of any additional business items or management presentations at the meeting.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Results
Positive
Mar 17, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the results of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), revealing the repurchase of 339,400 common shares between March 10 and 14, 2025. This initiative is part of IPC’s ongoing strategy to manage its capital structure, with shares repurchased on both the Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange. The repurchased shares will be canceled, reducing the total number of issued and outstanding shares. This move is seen as a strategic effort to enhance shareholder value and optimize the company’s financial structure.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 352,360 common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) during the period of March 3 to 7, 2025. This initiative is part of IPC’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. The repurchases were conducted on both Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with all shares to be cancelled. Since the initiation of the NCIB in December 2024, IPC has repurchased a total of 3,708,675 shares, with a maximum of 7,465,356 shares authorized for repurchase over a twelve-month period.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports on Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the results of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), revealing the repurchase of 214,308 common shares between February 24 and 28, 2025. The repurchase was conducted on both the Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with all shares set to be canceled. This move is part of IPC’s strategy to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting the company’s active engagement in optimizing its financial structure.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Announces Share Repurchase Results
Positive
Feb 25, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 218,956 common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) program between February 17 and 21, 2025. This initiative, which aligns with EU and Canadian regulations, involves share repurchases on both Nasdaq Stockholm and the TSX, with the aim of canceling the repurchased shares. As of February 21, 2025, IPC has repurchased a total of 3,142,007 shares since the NCIB’s commencement on December 5, 2024, with a maximum of 7,465,356 shares allowed for repurchase by December 4, 2025. This strategic move is expected to enhance shareholder value and reflects IPC’s commitment to optimizing its capital structure.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.