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International Petroleum Co (TSE:IPCO)
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International Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:IPCO

International Petroleum Corporation

(TSX:IPCO)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$27.00
▲(10.11% Upside)
The overall stock score of 67 reflects a mixed outlook for International Petroleum Corporation. The most significant factor is the company's financial performance, which is challenged by declining revenue and profitability margins. Technical analysis shows positive momentum, but valuation concerns arise from a high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. The earnings call provided a balanced sentiment with strong operational performance but highlighted financial challenges.
Positive Factors
Project Development
IPC has done a solid job on ensuring the project's development timeline and costs remain on track.
Share Buyback Program
The active buyback program has helped bolster the share price as buybacks made up almost 15% of trading liquidity in 2024, growing to 25% in January 2025.
Negative Factors
Valuation Concerns
IPC's valuation has expanded materially over the past year, which could constrain near-term share performance.

International Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

International Petroleum Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInternational Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas. The company holds a portfolio of oil and gas assets in Canada, Malaysia, and France. International Petroleum Corporation was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyIPCO generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its various upstream assets. The company's key revenue streams include the direct sale of these hydrocarbons to refineries, distributors, and other end-users in the energy market. Additionally, IPCO might engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its production capabilities and market reach. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil prices, production levels, and operational efficiency. Strategic acquisitions and asset optimizations also play a significant role in IPCO's revenue generation, allowing the company to leverage new opportunities and improve its asset portfolio.

International Petroleum Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong production performance, effective cost management, and significant progress on the Blackrod Phase 1 project. However, the company faced challenges with negative free cash flow and increased net debt due to lower oil prices. The overall sentiment is balanced with both positive operational achievements and financial challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
Average daily production rates were 43,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with guidance. The full-year production guidance is maintained at 43,000 to 45,000 barrels per day.
Operational Cost Management
Operating costs for the quarter were slightly below guidance at $17.80 per barrel. The full-year operating expenditure outlook is maintained between $18 and $19 a barrel.
Blackrod Phase 1 Development Progress
Significant progress on the Blackrod Phase 1 development with $138 million out of the $199 million spent in the first 6 months allocated towards it. The project is on time and on budget.
Hedging Strategy
Increased oil hedging exposure with 4,000 barrels per day for the second half of 2025 in the form of 0 cost collars between $65 and $75 a barrel WTI.
Share Repurchase Program
85% progress through the NCIB program with an average repurchase price of SEK 140 per share. Intention to complete the program before expiry in December.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow for the quarter was minus USD 58 million, with a full-year forecast expected to be between minus USD 135 million and minus USD 120 million.
Increased Net Debt
Net debt position at the end of Q2 was USD 375 million, with gross cash available to the business of USD 79 million.
Lower Oil Prices Impact
Oil prices were slightly lower, $7-$8 lower than during the first quarter, impacting operating cash flow, which was USD 55 million for the quarter.
Company Guidance
During IPC's second-quarter results update for 2025, the company maintained its full-year production guidance at 43,000 to 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Q2 production averaging 43,600 BOE per day. Operating costs for Q2 were slightly below guidance at $17.80 per BOE, while full-year operating expenditure is expected to be between $18 and $19 per barrel. Capital expenditure for the year remains projected at USD 320 million, with USD 199 million spent in the first half, including USD 138 million allocated to the Blackrod Phase 1 development. The company reported operating cash flow of USD 55 million for the quarter, with a full-year outlook of USD 245 million to USD 260 million, assuming Brent prices of $60 to $75 per barrel. Despite a negative free cash flow of USD 58 million in Q2, IPC remains financially stable with a net debt of USD 375 million and gross cash of USD 79 million, alongside an undrawn revolving credit facility of CAD 250 million. The company also progressed 85% through its share repurchase program, with plans to complete it by December 2025.

International Petroleum Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
International Petroleum Corporation is facing challenges with declining revenue and profitability margins, yet it maintains a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage. Cash flow generation is strong, but negative free cash flow remains a concern. The company needs to address revenue growth and profitability to improve its financial standing.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company has shown a decline in revenue growth with a negative trend in recent periods, particularly a -8.38% in TTM. Margins have also decreased, with the gross profit margin dropping from 42.46% in 2023 to 22.55% in TTM. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a positive net profit margin of 9.59% in TTM, indicating some level of profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly to 0.50 in TTM, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 8.68% in TTM from 16.01% in 2023, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced capital structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The company has experienced a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 24.55% in TTM, yet it remains negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.52 in TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights ongoing cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue809.28M913.18M853.91M1.13B741.03M340.84M
Gross Profit150.09M210.17M362.60M652.31M243.91M-82.00M
EBITDA242.29M310.01M365.28M620.26M311.45M26.92M
Net Income53.37M102.20M172.95M337.68M146.03M-77.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.02B1.95B2.06B1.68B1.27B1.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments78.89M246.59M517.07M483.24M18.81M6.50M
Total Debt450.10M448.28M446.97M308.84M112.69M326.15M
Total Liabilities1.06B1.01B982.73M714.29M426.13M624.67M
Stockholders Equity962.47M939.32M1.08B965.14M847.39M708.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-149.81M-168.99M32.91M444.00M236.95M-938.00K
Operating Cash Flow272.81M266.09M346.15M601.82M281.18M77.15M
Investing Cash Flow-422.40M-434.86M-352.47M-157.81M-44.23M-105.79M
Financing Cash Flow-139.92M-107.10M37.56M11.11M-224.58M19.91M

International Petroleum Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price24.52
Price Trends
50DMA
23.47
Positive
100DMA
21.80
Positive
200DMA
20.08
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.53
Positive
RSI
50.11
Neutral
STOCH
29.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IPCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.85, above the 50-day MA of 23.47, and above the 200-day MA of 20.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:IPCO.

International Petroleum Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
C$2.77B39.555.46%-17.88%-67.55%
66
Neutral
$15.26B7.303.22%5.27%4.16%-60.82%
$2.21B7.0427.01%
$2.16B2.1144.56%5.17%
$1.92B11.0911.47%
$1.58B17.4911.89%8.02%
$2.10B8.6014.64%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
24.52
7.23
41.82%
ATHOF
Athabasca Oil
4.45
0.84
23.27%
PRMRF
Paramount Resources
14.96
5.26
54.23%
TNEYF
Tamarack Valley Energy
3.82
1.19
45.25%
FRHLF
Freehold Royalties
9.62
0.75
8.46%
NUVSF
NuVista Energy
10.70
2.05
23.70%

International Petroleum Corporation Corporate Events

Stock Buyback
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Positive
Aug 11, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 98,900 common shares as part of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) from August 4 to 8, 2025. This initiative, in compliance with relevant EU and Canadian regulations, aims to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares. The repurchased shares will be canceled, and IPC has repurchased a total of 6,491,251 shares since December 2024, nearing its maximum limit of 7,465,356 shares by December 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Advances Sustainability Initiatives
Positive
Aug 5, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation reported strong operational and financial results for Q2 2025, aligning with its annual guidance. The company highlighted progress in its Blackrod Phase 1 development project in Canada and continued share repurchases, reducing outstanding shares significantly since 2017. Despite volatile oil prices, IPC maintained its production and cost guidance, with a net result of MUSD 14 for the quarter. The release of its sixth annual Sustainability Report underscores IPC’s commitment to sustainable practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
International Petroleum Corporation to Announce Q2 2025 Results
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced it will release its second-quarter 2025 financial and operational results on August 5, 2025. The release will be followed by an audiocast featuring comments from IPC’s President and CEO, William Lundin, and CFO, Christophe Nerguararian. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into IPC’s performance and strategic developments, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Hold with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Updates Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation has announced an update to its share capital following the cancellation of 76,000 common shares repurchased under its share repurchase program. As of July 31, 2025, the total number of issued and outstanding common shares is 113,278,532, with no shares held in treasury. This move reflects IPC’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure effectively, potentially enhancing shareholder value and impacting its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Hold with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corp. Advances Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 76,000 common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) from July 1 to 4, 2025. This initiative, which aligns with EU and Canadian regulations, involves repurchasing shares on both the Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with the aim to cancel them, thereby reducing the number of outstanding shares. As of July 4, 2025, IPC has repurchased a total of 6,392,351 shares since the NCIB’s inception, with a maximum limit set at 7,465,356 shares by December 4, 2025. This strategic move is expected to optimize shareholder value and enhance the company’s market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Updates Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation has updated its share capital following the cancellation of 288,027 common shares repurchased under its share repurchase program. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of issued and outstanding common shares is 113,354,532, with no shares held in treasury. This move reflects IPC’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure effectively, potentially enhancing shareholder value and impacting its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation announced the repurchase of 122,427 common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) from June 9 to 13, 2025. This initiative, compliant with EU and Canadian regulations, is part of IPC’s strategy to manage its share capital effectively. The repurchased shares will be canceled, reducing the total number of outstanding shares and potentially increasing shareholder value. Since the NCIB’s commencement in December 2024, IPC has repurchased over 6.3 million shares, with a maximum of 7.4 million shares allowed for repurchase until December 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Results
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the results of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), revealing that it repurchased a total of 125,600 common shares between June 2 and June 6, 2025. These repurchases, conducted on both the Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, are part of IPC’s ongoing share repurchase program, which allows for the repurchase of up to 7,465,356 shares over a twelve-month period. The repurchased shares will be canceled, reducing the total number of issued and outstanding shares. This move is part of IPC’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Results
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the results of its normal course issuer bid, repurchasing a total of 89,200 common shares between May 26 and 30, 2025. The repurchase was conducted under IPC’s share repurchase program, adhering to regulations and policies of the Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stockholm. All repurchased shares will be canceled, contributing to a total of 6,068,324 shares repurchased since the program’s inception. This strategic move aims to optimize the company’s capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Advances Share Buyback Program
Positive
May 26, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 134,300 common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) from May 19 to 23, 2025. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to buy back up to 7,465,356 shares by December 4, 2025, aimed at enhancing shareholder value. The repurchased shares will be cancelled, reducing the total number of outstanding shares and potentially increasing the value of remaining shares. This move reflects IPC’s commitment to optimizing its capital structure and returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Completes Share Repurchase Under NCIB
Positive
May 19, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation announced the repurchase of 146,900 common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) during May 12-16, 2025. This initiative is part of a broader program announced in December 2024, allowing IPC to repurchase up to 7,465,356 shares over a year. The repurchased shares will be canceled, impacting the total number of outstanding shares and potentially enhancing shareholder value. This strategic move reflects IPC’s commitment to optimizing its capital structure and returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
International Petroleum Corporation Reports Share Repurchase Progress
Positive
May 12, 2025

International Petroleum Corporation (IPC) announced the repurchase of 275,160 IPC common shares under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) program from May 1 to 9, 2025. The repurchases were made on the Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with all shares to be canceled. This initiative is part of IPC’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. The NCIB allows for the repurchase of up to 7,465,356 shares by December 4, 2025, reflecting IPC’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders and optimizing its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Buy with a C$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025