International Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.76B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 109.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 70.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: -9.12%
• EPS Growth: -70.87%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 297
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 112,155,525
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 83,477
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 109,844
• PEG Ratio: -1.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$27.00
• Price Target Upside: -19.52% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$969.46M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: C$35.00 ▲(4.32% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened cash generation (deeply negative free cash flow in 2024–2025) and a high P/E valuation, despite supportive technical momentum and a generally solid earnings-call read-through on operations (production/cost performance and Blackrod progress) tempered by higher CapEx and net debt.

Positive Factors

Production Outperformance

Sustained production above guidance demonstrates operational execution and reservoir performance that underpin durable revenue capacity. Higher base production improves near-term and medium-term cash generation potential, strengthens life-of-field economics and reduces delivery risk for development projects.

Blackrod Phase 1 Progress

Accelerated delivery of Blackrod Phase 1 is a structural growth catalyst: earlier first oil shifts the project’s cash‑flow profile forward, improves reserve conversion timing and supports longer‑term production growth and free cash flow potential once ramped, reducing project execution risk.

Refinancing and Equity Support

Extending debt maturities via refinancing materially reduces near‑term refinancing risk and provides predictable financing costs to 2030. Combined with a balance sheet described as 'reasonably supported by equity', this improves funding flexibility while management demonstrates active liability management.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 increases reliance on external funding and heightens execution risk. Heavy near‑term reinvestment can generate future returns, but sustained negative FCF constrains liquidity, limits optionality for returns or debt paydown, and raises financing vulnerability.

Rising Net Debt / Leverage

Rising net debt and noted drift in leverage reduce financial flexibility and increase interest and refinancing exposure—especially while cash flow is weak. Higher leverage can limit strategic choices, raise cost of capital and amplify downside in lower commodity-price scenarios.

Profitability Compression & Revenue Volatility

Compressed margins and volatile revenue reflect high sensitivity to commodity cycles and weaker unit economics versus prior upcycles. Structural margin pressure reduces retained earnings, weakens cash generation resilience, and increases the company's exposure to commodity and regional demand shocks.

International Petroleum Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

International Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas. The company holds a portfolio of oil and gas assets in Canada, Malaysia, and France. International Petroleum Corporation was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

International Petroleum Corporation generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is largely based on the volume of hydrocarbons produced and sold, as well as the prevailing market prices for these commodities. Key revenue streams include direct sales of oil and gas, as well as potential revenue from joint ventures and partnerships in exploration projects. IPCO may also benefit from strategic alliances with other energy companies, which can provide access to new markets and technologies, thereby enhancing its overall profitability. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of price volatility in the oil and gas markets, ensuring more stable revenue flows.

International Petroleum Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: the balance sheet is reasonably supported by equity (Balance Sheet Score 68), but profitability has compressed since 2022 (Income Statement Score 62) and free cash flow has been deeply negative in 2024–2025 (Cash Flow Score 45), raising funding and execution risk.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly after 2020 and remains higher than pre-2021 levels, but growth has been volatile (sharp expansion in 2021–2022, contraction in 2023, modest recovery in 2024, and lower revenue in 2025). Profitability peaked in 2022 and has compressed materially since then, with net income falling from 2022–2024 levels to a much lower result in 2025, indicating meaningful margin pressure and higher earnings sensitivity to the commodity cycle. Strengths include demonstrated ability to generate solid profits in up-cycles; weakness is the clear downshift in margins and earnings over the last two years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably supported by equity, with moderate leverage in the years where leverage data is provided (debt levels rising from 2021 to 2025, while equity stays broadly stable). Total debt has increased versus 2022, reducing financial flexibility, but the capital structure remains more conservative than many peers in a cyclical industry. Strength: solid equity base relative to debt; weakness: leverage has been drifting higher as profitability has softened.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has remained positive, but it has stepped down from the 2022 peak and weakened further by 2025. Free cash flow is the key issue: it turned from strongly positive in 2021–2022 to only modestly positive in 2023, and then deeply negative in 2024 and 2025, suggesting heavy reinvestment and/or weaker cash generation versus spending. Strength: the core business still produces operating cash; weakness: persistent negative free cash flow in the last two annual periods increases funding and execution risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	772.09M	913.18M	853.91M	1.13B	741.03M
Gross Profit	128.12M	210.17M	362.60M	652.31M	243.91M
EBITDA	218.06M	310.01M	365.28M	620.26M	311.45M
Net Income	28.94M	102.20M	172.95M	337.68M	146.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.98B	1.95B	2.06B	1.68B	1.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.04M	246.59M	517.07M	483.24M	18.81M
Total Debt	486.86M	448.28M	446.97M	308.84M	112.69M
Total Liabilities	1.05B	1.01B	982.73M	714.29M	426.13M
Stockholders Equity	927.03M	939.32M	1.08B	965.14M	847.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-152.21M	-168.99M	32.91M	444.00M	236.95M
Operating Cash Flow	194.00M	266.09M	346.15M	601.82M	281.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-346.21M	-434.86M	-352.47M	-157.81M	-44.23M
Financing Cash Flow	-74.49M	-107.10M	37.56M	11.11M	-224.58M

International Petroleum Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IPCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.03, above the 50-day MA of 28.08, and above the 200-day MA of 24.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.07 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:IPCO.

International Petroleum Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	82 Outperform	C$2.93B	14.55	23.55%	4.58%	6.44%	-6.74%
ATH	80 Outperform	C$4.20B	14.32	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
FRU	75 Outperform	$2.93B	16.54	13.00%	7.05%	2.52%	-8.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BTE	65 Neutral	C$4.13B	―	5.16%	2.07%	-8.89%	―
IPCO	59 Neutral	C$3.76B	70.08	3.59%	―	-9.12%	-70.87%

International Petroleum Corporation Corporate Events

International Petroleum Updates Share Capital After Employee Share Issuance

International Petroleum Corporation has updated its share capital following the issuance of 671,225 common shares tied to the vesting of employee share units under the company’s Share Unit Plan. After this transaction, the company’s total issued and outstanding share count stands at 112,826,752 common shares with voting rights, and the company holds no shares in treasury.

The capital change reflects IPC’s ongoing use of equity‑based incentives to compensate and retain employees without raising external capital. The updated share count is relevant for shareholders tracking ownership dilution, voting power and market capitalization, and fulfills disclosure requirements under the Swedish Financial Instruments Trading Act for the company’s dual listing in Canada and Sweden.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Hold with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

IPC Eyes Cash Flow Inflection as Blackrod Phase 1 Nears First Oil

International Petroleum Corporation reported strong 2025 operational performance, with average annual production of 44,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day at the top end of guidance and operating costs below forecast. The company advanced Phase 1 of its Blackrod project ahead of schedule and on budget, completed adjacent land acquisitions, and progressed drilling programs in Canada and Malaysia while buying back 7.7 million shares.

Financially, IPC generated solid operating cash flow of USD 259 million in 2025 despite weaker commodity prices but reported negative free cash flow due to heavy Blackrod spending, which it views as the final major investment year for the project. With first oil from Blackrod now expected in the third quarter of 2026, IPC forecasts a step-change in free cash flow between 2026 and 2030, positioning the company for enhanced shareholder value creation supported by expanded credit facilities and bond refinancing.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Hold with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

International Petroleum Corporation Sets February 10 Date for 2025 Results and Capital Markets Day

International Petroleum Corporation announced it will release its financial and operating results, including management’s discussion and analysis, for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, on February 10, 2026, at 07:30 CET. The company will host an audiocast presentation of the results at 10:00 CET and hold its annual Capital Markets Day later the same day at 15:00 CET via webcast, signaling an upcoming update to investors and analysts on recent performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Hold with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

International Petroleum Corporation Clears Prospectus for USD 450 Million Bond Listing in Oslo

International Petroleum Corporation has secured approval from the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority for the prospectus tied to its USD 450 million 7.50% senior unsecured bonds, clearing the way for their listing on Euronext Oslo Børs. The bonds, originally issued in October 2025 and maturing in October 2030, are expected to begin trading in Oslo around February 6, 2026, broadening IPC’s access to Nordic capital markets and potentially enhancing liquidity and investor diversification for its long-dated funding instrument.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Hold with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.

IPC Starts Steam Injection at Blackrod Phase 1 Ahead of First Oil in 2026

International Petroleum Corporation has begun steam injection at its 100%-owned Blackrod Phase 1 heavy oil development in Canada, marking a key milestone toward first oil production, which the company continues to forecast for the third quarter of 2026, one quarter earlier than initially guided. The project, which targets plateau production of 30,000 barrels of oil per day within a regulatory framework that allows up to 80,000 barrels per day, remains on budget with forecast growth capital expenditure of USD 850 million, of which about 92% had been spent by the end of the third quarter of 2025; the scale of Blackrod’s reserves and contingent resources underscores its strategic importance to IPC’s long-term production growth and cash flow profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IPCO) stock is a Hold with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Petroleum Corporation stock, see the TSE:IPCO Stock Forecast page.