International Petroleum Corporation (TSE:IPCO)
TSX:IPCO
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International Petroleum Corporation
(TSX:IPCO)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
C$36.00
▲(4.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorated cash-flow quality (negative TTM free cash flow) and weaker profitability versus prior years, alongside an elevated P/E. Offsetting factors include a still-manageable balance sheet and a more positive earnings-call outlook driven by improved operating cash flow guidance and the Blackrod Phase 1 catalyst, while technicals are broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
High-impact growth project (Blackrod Phase 1)
Blackrod Phase 1 is a structural growth catalyst: large reserve additions and meaningful production capacity that materially increases company-scale. Ahead-of-schedule delivery and minimal cost overrun preserve project economics, improving long-term cash flow potential and reserve-backed value.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow trend
Sustained negative free cash flow signals that capital investment outstrips internally generated cash, eroding self-funding capacity. Over several quarters this forces reliance on debt or external financing, constrains shareholder returns and heightens sensitivity to commodity or execution shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-impact growth project (Blackrod Phase 1)
Blackrod Phase 1 is a structural growth catalyst: large reserve additions and meaningful production capacity that materially increases company-scale. Ahead-of-schedule delivery and minimal cost overrun preserve project economics, improving long-term cash flow potential and reserve-backed value.
Read all positive factors
International Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)109.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)60.3
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth-12.72%
EPS Growth-67.54%
CountryCA
Employees297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding112,155,525
10 Day Avg. Volume83,477
30 Day Avg. Volume109,844
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)2.63
P/FCF Ratio-13.32
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$40.71Price Target Upside18.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.24B
International Petroleum Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
International Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas. The company holds a portfolio of oil and gas assets in Canada, Malaysia, and France. International Petroleum Corporation was incorporated in 2017 and is headquar...
How the Company Makes Money
IPCO primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids—from its portfolio of producing assets. Revenues are driven by (1) production volumes attributable to IPCO’s working interests and (2)...
International Petroleum Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive outlook: operational performance was solid with production at the high end of guidance, disciplined OpEx (<USD 18/boe), strong Q1 operating cash flow (USD 68M), and an upgraded full‑year OCF outlook (USD 220–340M). The major strategic catalyst — Blackrod Phase 1 — is ahead of schedule with first oil expected in Q3 2026, limited cost overrun (<1%) and attractive economics (NPV ~USD 1.4B, ~USD 47 WTI breakeven). Management increased 2026 CapEx to capture higher commodity prices and paused material share buybacks to prioritize production‑adding projects. Near‑term negatives include a Q1 FCF shortfall (‑USD 17M), hedging losses and a hedging program that mutes upside until end‑June, higher net debt (USD 513M) and exposure to Canadian differential/gas price pressure. Overall, the positives (accelerated flagship project, improved cash flow outlook, strong liquidity measures and clear path to positive FCF in H2/2026–2027) outweigh the short‑term cash and hedge headwinds.Positive Updates
Production at high end of guidance
Q1 production of 43,000 boe/d (top end of quarterly forecast); full-year production guidance maintained at 44,000–47,000 boe/d (annual average).
Negative Updates
Negative free cash flow in Q1 and likely Q2
Q1 free cash flow (FCF) was negative USD 17 million; company expects Q2 may also be negative as CapEx is front‑loaded in 2026.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production at high end of guidance
Q1 production of 43,000 boe/d (top end of quarterly forecast); full-year production guidance maintained at 44,000–47,000 boe/d (annual average).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year production guidance of 44,000–47,000 boe/d (Q1 at 43,000 boe/d) and OpEx guidance of $18–$20/boe (Q1 below $18/boe), raised 2026 CapEx to $163M (from $122M) with Q1 CapEx $71M, and expects Blackrod Phase 1 first oil in Q3 2026 (Phase 1 growth capital ~US$850M, minor cost pressure to ~US$857M; cumulative spend to end‑Q1 US$842M), with Phase 1 targeting 30,000 bbl/d (regulatory approval up to 80,000 bpd), 311 MMbbl 2P and ~1.45 billion barrels recoverable resource; financial guidance was updated to operating cash flow US$220–$340M and full‑year free cash flow US$0–$120M (both assuming $70–$90 Brent for the remainder of 2026), noting Q1 OCF $68M, EBITDA $64M, net profit $13M, Q1 free cash flow −$17M, and net debt $513M; liquidity was bolstered by expanding the Canadian RCF to US$250M (maturity 2028), while hedging (~40% of WTI/Brent) rolls off end‑June leaving the company fully exposed from July, gas hedges cover 50,000 GJ/day at CAD ~2.7/GJ (CAD ~2.8/Mcf), Q1 realized Dated Brent averaged >$81/bbl (Brent‑WTI ≈ $9/bbl; WTI‑WCS ≈ $14/bbl) and the company used assumed differentials of $5 (Brent‑WTI) and $14 (WTI‑WCS) in its full‑year outlook.International Petroleum Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 718.74M | 772.09M | 913.18M | 853.91M | 1.13B | 741.03M |
| Gross Profit | 114.74M | 128.12M | 210.17M | 362.60M | 652.31M | 243.91M |
| EBITDA | 233.93M | 218.06M | 310.01M | 365.28M | 620.26M | 311.45M |
| Net Income | 25.21M | 28.94M | 102.20M | 172.95M | 337.68M | 146.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.02B | 1.98B | 1.95B | 2.06B | 1.68B | 1.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.83M | 7.04M | 246.59M | 517.07M | 483.24M | 18.81M |
| Total Debt | 522.41M | 486.86M | 448.28M | 446.97M | 308.84M | 112.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.13B | 1.05B | 1.01B | 982.73M | 714.29M | 426.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 891.25M | 927.03M | 939.32M | 1.08B | 965.14M | 847.39M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -129.41M | -152.21M | -168.99M | 32.91M | 444.00M | 236.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 184.48M | 194.00M | 266.09M | 346.15M | 601.82M | 281.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -311.85M | -346.21M | -434.86M | -352.47M | -157.81M | -44.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 13.20M | -74.49M | -107.10M | 37.56M | 11.11M | -224.58M |
International Petroleum Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
34.44
Price Trends
36.46
Positive
32.27
Positive
28.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Negative
62.39
Neutral
94.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IPCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.28, below the 50-day MA of 36.46, and above the 200-day MA of 28.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:IPCO.
International Petroleum Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$3.16B | 21.48 | 18.54% | 4.58% | -3.35% | -30.86% | |
73 Outperform | C$5.95B | 29.25 | 12.23% | ― | -4.92% | -52.64% | |
73 Outperform | C$2.92B | 20.28 | 8.81% | 7.05% | -7.99% | -44.67% | |
66 Neutral | C$5.25B | -17.26 | -23.11% | 2.07% | -8.89% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
54 Neutral | C$4.35B | 60.26 | 2.73% | ― | -12.72% | -67.54% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
39.22
19.65
100.41%
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International Petroleum Corporation Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
International Petroleum Corp. Sets May 6, 2026 AGM and Outlines Shareholder Voting Process
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
International Petroleum Corp. has scheduled its Annual General Meeting for May 6, 2026, in Calgary, where shareholders will review the 2025 audited financial statements, set the board size at eight directors, elect the proposed slate, and appoint ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
International Petroleum Updates Share Capital After Employee Share Issuance
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
International Petroleum Corporation has updated its share capital following the issuance of 671,225 common shares tied to the vesting of employee share units under the company’s Share Unit Plan. After this transaction, the company’s to...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
IPC Eyes Cash Flow Inflection as Blackrod Phase 1 Nears First Oil
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
International Petroleum Corporation reported strong 2025 operational performance, with average annual production of 44,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day at the top end of guidance and operating costs below forecast. The company advanced Phase ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.