Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 5.67%
• EPS Growth: 479.45%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 492,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,055,105
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,815,009
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.77
• 1Y Price Target: $6.33
• Price Target Upside: 11.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: C$6.50 ▲(14.44% Upside)

Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its overall score. The company's strategic initiatives and positive corporate events further bolster its outlook. Technical analysis suggests a stable trend, supporting a positive but cautious investment stance.

Positive Factors

Growth Potential

ATH is expected to deliver one of the strongest per-share growth rates driven by the Leismer expansion project and ongoing buyback activity.

Share Buybacks

Buybacks are likely to accelerate, boosting the stock's potential value.

Negative Factors

Operational Challenges

Soft Q2 results have raised concerns that QB issues could linger into 2026.

Tariff Concerns

ATH's stock has fallen by approximately 18% year-to-date, primarily due to tariff threats and OPEC+ production unwinds.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through Thermal Oil and Light Oil segments. Its principal properties are in the Greater Placid and Greater Kaybob areas near the Town of Fox Creek in northwestern Alberta; and the Leismer and Hangingstone projects located in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The company produces light and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and natural gas liquids; and bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations. As of December 31, 2021, it held approximately 889,000 net acres of mineral resource leases, licenses, and permits, which include approximately 347,000 net acres of oil sands leases and permits, and approximately 337,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in the Athabasca region of northwestern Alberta; approximately 204,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in northwestern Alberta; and had an interest in approximately 254 gross wells of bitumen, crude oil, and natural gas. The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012. Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is driven by its production levels, which depend on the efficiency of its extraction operations and market demand for hydrocarbons. Key revenue streams include the sale of bitumen from oil sands projects, light oil production, and natural gas sales. Additionally, Athabasca may engage in joint ventures and partnerships with other energy companies to enhance its operational capabilities and share development costs, thus contributing to its earnings. The fluctuating prices of crude oil and natural gas in the global market significantly impact the company's profitability, along with its ability to manage operational costs effectively.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athabasca Oil exhibits strong financial performance with significant improvements in profitability and cash flow metrics. The company benefits from solid revenue growth and effective cost management, bolstered by a stable balance sheet with low leverage. However, attention should be paid to historical volatility in margins and asset base stability.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability metrics with a robust Net Profit Margin of approximately 34.8% in TTM, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous years. Revenue growth has been impressive, particularly in 2023 and 2024, driven by increased efficiency and higher market demand. The company's Gross Profit Margin is also healthy, indicating effective cost management. However, historical volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests potential exposure to market fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of approximately 0.11 in TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong, showcasing a high proportion of equity financing relative to assets. The Return on Equity is commendable at 28.7%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' funds. Nonetheless, the slight decrease in total assets over the last year warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant increase in Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash. Historical fluctuations in capital expenditure reflect adaptive investment strategies.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.43B	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
Gross Profit	686.18M	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
EBITDA	765.57M	781.05M	111.83M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
Net Income	461.93M	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	304.05M	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
Total Debt	196.22M	199.73M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
Total Liabilities	585.79M	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.77B	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	291.13M	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow	570.61M	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-263.49M	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-307.76M	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.73, below the 50-day MA of 5.71, and above the 200-day MA of 5.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATH	76 Outperform	$2.84B	6.44	27.01%	―	5.67%	479.45%
Sector *	56 Neutral	C$4.16B	1.05	16.25%	5.25%	10.45%	-57.37%
BTE	―	$1.55B	5.91	9.05%	3.19%	―	―
PRMRF	―	$2.07B	2.02	44.56%	5.37%	―	―
FRHLF	―	$1.57B	17.66	11.89%	8.14%	―	―
NUVSF	―	$2.01B	8.24	14.64%	―	―	―
IPCO	70 Outperform	C$2.80B	39.52	5.46%	―	-17.88%	-67.55%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Strategic Growth

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported strong operational results for the second quarter of 2025, with significant growth in production and robust financial performance. The company has maintained a pristine financial position, executing substantial share buybacks and committing to return 100% of free cash flow from thermal oil to shareholders. With ongoing projects at Leismer and Hangingstone, and a strategic focus on capital efficiency, Athabasca is well-positioned for continued growth and stability, with implications for increased shareholder value and sustained operational momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATH) stock is a Buy with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athabasca Oil stock, see the TSE:ATH Stock Forecast page.