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Athabasca Oil (TSE:ATH)
TSX:ATH

Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

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Athabasca Oil

(TSX:ATH)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$7.00
▲(22.81%Upside)
Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and undervaluation are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's robust financials, combined with bullish technical indicators and positive corporate events, suggest a promising outlook. However, potential overbought conditions and historical volatility in financial metrics warrant caution.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet
The company boasts one of the strongest balance sheets amongst its peers as it is sitting in a net cash position.
Volume Guidance
The company could achieve the upper end of its volume guidance due to the strong start at its thermal assets.
Negative Factors
Market Concerns
The first few months have been tough for ATH's share price due to tariff concerns and OPEC+ supply unwinds.
Stock Performance
ATH's stock has fallen by ~18% year-to-date, primarily due to tariff threats and OPEC+ production unwinds.

Athabasca Oil (ATH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAthabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) is a Canadian energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, the company operates primarily in the Athabasca region of Alberta, focusing on thermal and light oil projects. ATH is committed to responsible resource development and strives to maximize shareholder value through strategic asset management and operational excellence.
How the Company Makes MoneyAthabasca Oil Corporation generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's operations are divided into two main segments: Thermal Oil and Light Oil. The Thermal Oil segment includes large-scale oil sands projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology to produce bitumen, which is sold as either diluted bitumen or blended crude oil. The Light Oil segment focuses on the development and production of conventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas from its assets in the Montney and Duvernay formations. ATH sells its products to various markets, including refineries and other oil and gas companies. The company's earnings are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures may also play a role in enhancing its production capabilities and accessing new markets.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Athabasca Oil exhibits strong financial performance with significant improvements in profitability and cash flow metrics. The company benefits from solid revenue growth and effective cost management, bolstered by a stable balance sheet with low leverage. However, attention should be paid to historical volatility in margins and asset base stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability metrics with a robust Net Profit Margin of approximately 34.8% in TTM, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous years. Revenue growth has been impressive, particularly in 2023 and 2024, driven by increased efficiency and higher market demand. The company's Gross Profit Margin is also healthy, indicating effective cost management. However, historical volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests potential exposure to market fluctuations.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of approximately 0.11 in TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong, showcasing a high proportion of equity financing relative to assets. The Return on Equity is commendable at 28.7%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' funds. Nonetheless, the slight decrease in total assets over the last year warrants attention.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant increase in Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash. Historical fluctuations in capital expenditure reflect adaptive investment strategies.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44B1.44B1.20B1.50B1.02B464.65M
Gross Profit654.69M751.90M414.79M731.03M564.58M159.88M
EBITDA826.49M781.05M111.83M370.67M649.06M-457.96M
Net Income501.14M467.74M-51.22M572.27M457.61M-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.46B2.47B2.05B2.23B1.74B1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments304.54M344.84M343.31M197.53M223.06M165.20M
Total Debt196.02M195.83M185.54M206.13M384.30M559.50M
Total Liabilities590.70M610.88M465.18M519.86M716.17M858.96M
Stockholders Equity1.75B1.75B1.58B1.71B1.03B567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow349.40M289.50M165.69M168.17M102.11M-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow604.26M557.54M305.53M315.62M194.25M-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow-275.31M-251.34M20.56M-146.00M22.70M-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow-347.85M-328.68M-170.73M-204.95M-159.20M-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.70
Price Trends
50DMA
5.32
Positive
100DMA
5.13
Positive
200DMA
5.13
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.07
Positive
RSI
54.42
Neutral
STOCH
54.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.77, above the 50-day MA of 5.32, and above the 200-day MA of 5.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSATH
80
Outperform
$2.87B6.0530.45%15.99%1134.34%
TSNVA
74
Outperform
$2.78B7.5316.78%-15.57%-12.73%
TSBTE
74
Outperform
C$2.08B6.768.02%3.32%10.55%
TSPOU
69
Neutral
$3.10B2.0148.97%2.78%2.95%351.05%
TSFRU
69
Neutral
$2.11B13.0515.22%8.38%-1.62%12.60%
67
Neutral
C$2.52B23.248.83%-7.83%-45.69%
52
Neutral
C$2.92B-1.03-3.46%6.02%3.01%-47.13%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
5.70
0.42
7.95%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
2.63
-2.31
-46.77%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
21.59
5.79
36.64%
TSE:NVA
NuVista Energy
14.04
-0.22
-1.54%
TSE:FRU
Freehold Royalties
12.89
-0.04
-0.28%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
22.00
2.40
12.24%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM
Positive
May 8, 2025

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders were approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to positively impact the company’s governance and operational strategies, reinforcing its position in the energy sector.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM
Positive
May 8, 2025

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting have been approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company to continue its strategic focus on developing its thermal and light oil assets, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Significant Growth
Positive
May 8, 2025

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported a 63% growth in funds flow per share for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong operational execution and the completion of its second annual share buyback program. The company is well-positioned to handle market volatility with its low break-even costs and long-life assets, supported by a robust balance sheet and significant tax pools. The company’s operations, including projects at Leismer and Hangingstone, continue to generate meaningful free cash flow, and the outlook for Canadian heavy oil remains strong due to favorable market conditions.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 14, 2025