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Athabasca Oil (TSE:ATH)
TSX:ATH
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Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:ATH

Athabasca Oil

(TSX:ATH)

Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
C$6.50
▲(9.61%Upside)
Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and recent corporate events are the most significant factors driving the positive score. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook, though caution is advised due to potential overbought signals. The valuation is attractive, enhancing the overall investment appeal despite the absence of dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
Q2/25 results prove double-digit EPS growth still within reach.
Financial Performance
The company boasts one of the cleanest balance sheets among its peers and one of the longest reserve lives.
Shareholder Returns
Athabasca's valuation is well-supported by its commitment to accelerating shareholder returns and volume growth.
Negative Factors
Market Challenges
ATH's stock has fallen by ~18% year-to-date, primarily due to tariff threats and OPEC+ production unwinds.
Operational Issues
Soft Q2 results - QB issues could linger into 2026.

Athabasca Oil (ATH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAthabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) is a Canadian energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resources. The company operates primarily in the Athabasca region of Alberta, utilizing advanced extraction technologies to harness its significant resource base. ATH is focused on sustainable and efficient resource development, aiming to deliver value through its diversified portfolio of thermal oil and light oil assets.
How the Company Makes MoneyAthabasca Oil Corporation generates revenue by producing and selling oil extracted from its thermal and light oil operations. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of produced crude oil and natural gas liquids to various markets, leveraging both spot market sales and long-term contractual agreements. ATH employs steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology in its thermal oil projects, optimizing production efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, strategic partnerships and joint ventures may contribute to its revenue, enhancing operational capabilities and market access. The corporation's earnings are influenced by global oil prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 34.8% and solid revenue growth. Balance sheet is robust with low leverage, though historical volatility in margins and asset stability needs attention.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability metrics with a robust Net Profit Margin of approximately 34.8% in TTM, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous years. Revenue growth has been impressive, particularly in 2023 and 2024, driven by increased efficiency and higher market demand. The company's Gross Profit Margin is also healthy, indicating effective cost management. However, historical volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests potential exposure to market fluctuations.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of approximately 0.11 in TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong, showcasing a high proportion of equity financing relative to assets. The Return on Equity is commendable at 28.7%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' funds. Nonetheless, the slight decrease in total assets over the last year warrants attention.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant increase in Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash. Historical fluctuations in capital expenditure reflect adaptive investment strategies.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44B1.20B1.50B1.02B464.65M
Gross Profit751.90M414.79M731.03M564.58M159.88M
EBITDA781.05M111.83M370.67M649.06M-457.96M
Net Income467.74M-51.22M572.27M457.61M-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.47B2.05B2.23B1.74B1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments344.84M343.31M197.53M223.06M165.20M
Total Debt195.83M185.54M206.13M384.30M559.50M
Total Liabilities610.88M465.18M519.86M716.17M858.96M
Stockholders Equity1.75B1.58B1.71B1.03B567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow289.50M165.69M168.17M102.11M-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow557.54M305.53M315.62M194.25M-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow-251.34M20.56M-146.00M22.70M-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow-328.68M-170.73M-204.95M-159.20M-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.93
Price Trends
50DMA
5.59
Positive
100DMA
5.26
Positive
200DMA
5.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.07
Negative
RSI
64.48
Neutral
STOCH
78.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.66, above the 50-day MA of 5.59, and above the 200-day MA of 5.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$3.12B2.0248.97%73.62%2.95%351.05%
79
Outperform
$2.91B6.7227.01%5.67%479.45%
76
Outperform
C$2.28B7.418.02%2.98%10.55%
74
Outperform
$2.88B7.9516.78%-15.57%-12.73%
69
Neutral
$2.22B13.7015.22%7.95%-1.62%12.60%
67
Neutral
C$2.71B25.628.83%-7.83%-45.69%
52
Neutral
C$2.98B-1.54-3.48%6.42%2.99%-49.41%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
5.93
0.46
8.41%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
3.02
-1.72
-36.25%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
21.80
7.26
49.97%
TSE:NVA
NuVista Energy
14.82
1.78
13.65%
TSE:FRU
Freehold Royalties
13.58
0.46
3.51%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
24.25
4.77
24.49%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Strategic Growth
Positive
Jul 24, 2025

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported strong operational results for the second quarter of 2025, with significant growth in production and robust financial performance. The company has maintained a pristine financial position, executing substantial share buybacks and committing to return 100% of free cash flow from thermal oil to shareholders. With ongoing projects at Leismer and Hangingstone, and a strategic focus on capital efficiency, Athabasca is well-positioned for continued growth and stability, with implications for increased shareholder value and sustained operational momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATH) stock is a Buy with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athabasca Oil stock, see the TSE:ATH Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM
Positive
May 8, 2025

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders were approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to positively impact the company’s governance and operational strategies, reinforcing its position in the energy sector.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM
Positive
May 8, 2025

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting have been approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company to continue its strategic focus on developing its thermal and light oil assets, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Significant Growth
Positive
May 8, 2025

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported a 63% growth in funds flow per share for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong operational execution and the completion of its second annual share buyback program. The company is well-positioned to handle market volatility with its low break-even costs and long-life assets, supported by a robust balance sheet and significant tax pools. The company’s operations, including projects at Leismer and Hangingstone, continue to generate meaningful free cash flow, and the outlook for Canadian heavy oil remains strong due to favorable market conditions.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025