Athabasca Oil (TSE:ATH)
TSX:ATH
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Athabasca Oil
(TSX:ATH)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$11.50
▲(16.04% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong cash generation, and low leverage). Technicals also support the rating with a clear uptrend and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E, though the absence of dividend yield data and the company’s historical cyclicality temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Trailing-twelve-month operating and free cash flow are strong and improved year-over-year, indicating the business generates durable internal funding for reinvestment, debt service, and optional shareholder returns. This underpins financial flexibility across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Recent revenue softness
Trailing revenue has softened (~3–4%), which, if persistent, can pressure operating leverage and future cash generation. For a production-focused E&P, sustained top-line declines reduce reinvestment capacity and make returns more sensitive to operational and pricing improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Trailing-twelve-month operating and free cash flow are strong and improved year-over-year, indicating the business generates durable internal funding for reinvestment, debt service, and optional shareholder returns. This underpins financial flexibility across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Athabasca Oil (ATH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.75B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth3.04%
EPS Growth115.77%
CountryCA
Employees181
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding479,700,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,265,416
30 Day Avg. Volume2,608,945
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio6.74
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$8.79Price Target Upside-11.28% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.07B
Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through Thermal Oil and Light Oil segments...
How the Company Makes Money
Athabasca Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil (bitumen/heavy oil) from its oil sands operations. Revenue is largely a function of (1) production volumes and (2) realized pricing for its crude, which is influenced by benchm...
Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.31B | 1.44B | 1.20B | 1.50B | 1.02B |
| Gross Profit | 423.06M | 751.90M | 414.79M | 731.03M | 564.58M |
| EBITDA | 508.65M | 781.05M | 110.46M | 370.67M | 649.06M |
| Net Income | 245.11M | 467.74M | -51.22M | 572.27M | 457.61M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.55B | 2.47B | 2.05B | 2.23B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 316.37M | 344.84M | 343.31M | 197.53M | 223.06M |
| Total Debt | 201.86M | 199.73M | 185.54M | 206.13M | 384.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 657.43M | 610.88M | 465.18M | 519.86M | 716.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.77B | 1.75B | 1.58B | 1.71B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 520.46M | 289.50M | 165.69M | 168.17M | 102.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 520.46M | 557.54M | 305.53M | 315.62M | 194.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -305.77M | -251.34M | 20.56M | -146.00M | 22.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -230.74M | -328.68M | -170.73M | -204.95M | -159.20M |
Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
9.91
Price Trends
8.56
Positive
7.89
Positive
7.00
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
68.72
Neutral
79.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.19, above the 50-day MA of 8.56, and above the 200-day MA of 7.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.
Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$4.75B | 14.32 | 27.19% | ― | 3.04% | 115.77% | |
73 Outperform | C$4.29B | 2.70 | 48.07% | 2.84% | -32.36% | 282.99% | |
68 Neutral | C$5.44B | -110.02 | -1.84% | 1.91% | -1.36% | -149.45% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$4.34B | -1.00 | -16.22% | 2.07% | -8.89% | ― | |
60 Neutral | C$4.03B | 70.08 | 3.12% | ― | -9.12% | -70.87% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
9.91
4.33
77.60%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
5.86
2.71
85.97%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
29.68
11.56
63.83%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
11.20
6.92
161.74%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
35.97
13.88
62.83%
Athabasca Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Athabasca Oil boosts 2025 output, reserves and ramps up share buybacks
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Athabasca Oil reported strong 2025 results, with average production rising 7% to 39,375 boe/d, 98% liquids, and hitting the top end of guidance. Adjusted funds flow reached $504 million, supported by $323 million in capital spending largely at the...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.