Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: 5.67%
• EPS Growth: 479.45%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 492,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,823,179
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,055,671
• PEG Ratio: 0.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $6.32
• Price Target Upside: 6.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: C$6.50 ▲(9.61%Upside)

Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and recent corporate events are the most significant factors driving the positive score. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook, though caution is advised due to potential overbought signals. The valuation is attractive, enhancing the overall investment appeal despite the absence of dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

Q2/25 results prove double-digit EPS growth still within reach.

Financial Performance

The company boasts one of the cleanest balance sheets among its peers and one of the longest reserve lives.

Shareholder Returns

Athabasca's valuation is well-supported by its commitment to accelerating shareholder returns and volume growth.

Negative Factors

Market Challenges

ATH's stock has fallen by ~18% year-to-date, primarily due to tariff threats and OPEC+ production unwinds.

Operational Issues

Soft Q2 results - QB issues could linger into 2026.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) is a Canadian energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resources. The company operates primarily in the Athabasca region of Alberta, utilizing advanced extraction technologies to harness its significant resource base. ATH is focused on sustainable and efficient resource development, aiming to deliver value through its diversified portfolio of thermal oil and light oil assets.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil Corporation generates revenue by producing and selling oil extracted from its thermal and light oil operations. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of produced crude oil and natural gas liquids to various markets, leveraging both spot market sales and long-term contractual agreements. ATH employs steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology in its thermal oil projects, optimizing production efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, strategic partnerships and joint ventures may contribute to its revenue, enhancing operational capabilities and market access. The corporation's earnings are influenced by global oil prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 34.8% and solid revenue growth. Balance sheet is robust with low leverage, though historical volatility in margins and asset stability needs attention.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability metrics with a robust Net Profit Margin of approximately 34.8% in TTM, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous years. Revenue growth has been impressive, particularly in 2023 and 2024, driven by increased efficiency and higher market demand. The company's Gross Profit Margin is also healthy, indicating effective cost management. However, historical volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests potential exposure to market fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of approximately 0.11 in TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong, showcasing a high proportion of equity financing relative to assets. The Return on Equity is commendable at 28.7%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' funds. Nonetheless, the slight decrease in total assets over the last year warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant increase in Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash. Historical fluctuations in capital expenditure reflect adaptive investment strategies.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
Gross Profit	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
EBITDA	781.05M	111.83M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
Net Income	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
Total Debt	195.83M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
Total Liabilities	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.93
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.66, above the 50-day MA of 5.59, and above the 200-day MA of 5.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POU	81 Outperform	$3.12B	2.02	48.97%	73.62%	2.95%	351.05%
ATH	79 Outperform	$2.91B	6.72	27.01%	―	5.67%	479.45%
BTE	76 Outperform	C$2.28B	7.41	8.02%	2.98%	10.55%	―
NVA	74 Outperform	$2.88B	7.95	16.78%	―	-15.57%	-12.73%
FRU	69 Neutral	$2.22B	13.70	15.22%	7.95%	-1.62%	12.60%
IPCO	67 Neutral	C$2.71B	25.62	8.83%	―	-7.83%	-45.69%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.98B	-1.54	-3.48%	6.42%	2.99%	-49.41%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Strategic Growth

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported strong operational results for the second quarter of 2025, with significant growth in production and robust financial performance. The company has maintained a pristine financial position, executing substantial share buybacks and committing to return 100% of free cash flow from thermal oil to shareholders. With ongoing projects at Leismer and Hangingstone, and a strategic focus on capital efficiency, Athabasca is well-positioned for continued growth and stability, with implications for increased shareholder value and sustained operational momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATH) stock is a Buy with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athabasca Oil stock, see the TSE:ATH Stock Forecast page.

Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders were approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to positively impact the company’s governance and operational strategies, reinforcing its position in the energy sector.

Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting have been approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company to continue its strategic focus on developing its thermal and light oil assets, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Significant Growth

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported a 63% growth in funds flow per share for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong operational execution and the completion of its second annual share buyback program. The company is well-positioned to handle market volatility with its low break-even costs and long-life assets, supported by a robust balance sheet and significant tax pools. The company’s operations, including projects at Leismer and Hangingstone, continue to generate meaningful free cash flow, and the outlook for Canadian heavy oil remains strong due to favorable market conditions.