Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.43B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: 3.04%
• EPS Growth: 115.77%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 492,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,265,416
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,608,945
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.77
• 1Y Price Target: $7.30
• Price Target Upside: -3.88% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: C$8.50 ▲(11.99% Upside)

Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and undervaluation are the primary drivers of its high score. The stock's technical indicators show bullish momentum, further supporting a positive outlook. However, challenges in revenue and free cash flow growth, along with the absence of earnings call insights, slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Recovery

The company's financial recovery and profitability indicate effective management and operational efficiency, which can support long-term growth and stability.

Robust Balance Sheet

A low debt-to-equity ratio suggests prudent financial management, providing the company with flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and withstand economic downturns.

High Return on Equity

High ROE indicates efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits, which can attract investors and support sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue growth can hinder the company's ability to expand and compete, potentially impacting long-term profitability and market position.

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow growth may limit the company's ability to invest in new projects and technologies, affecting future operational capabilities.

Revenue Decline

A recent decline in revenue, despite strong margins, could signal challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, impacting long-term growth prospects.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through Thermal Oil and Light Oil segments. Its principal properties are in the Greater Placid and Greater Kaybob areas near the Town of Fox Creek in northwestern Alberta; and the Leismer and Hangingstone projects located in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The company produces light and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and natural gas liquids; and bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations. As of December 31, 2021, it held approximately 889,000 net acres of mineral resource leases, licenses, and permits, which include approximately 347,000 net acres of oil sands leases and permits, and approximately 337,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in the Athabasca region of northwestern Alberta; approximately 204,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in northwestern Alberta; and had an interest in approximately 254 gross wells of bitumen, crude oil, and natural gas. The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012. Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company earns income from its Thermal Oil operations by extracting heavy crude oil from oil sands and selling it at market prices, which can be influenced by global oil prices and local infrastructure constraints. Additionally, the Light Oil segment contributes revenue by producing and selling conventional oil and natural gas. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refineries and other market participants. The company may also engage in joint ventures and partnerships to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, which can further support its earnings.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athabasca Oil demonstrates a strong financial recovery with impressive profitability and efficient operations. The balance sheet is robust, with low leverage and strong equity returns. However, recent revenue and free cash flow growth challenges highlight areas for improvement in sustaining growth momentum.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil's income statement shows a strong recovery from previous years, with a notable improvement in net profit margin to 32.25% in TTM. Despite a slight revenue decline recently, the company maintains robust EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating efficient operations. However, the negative revenue growth rate in TTM suggests potential challenges in sustaining revenue momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity is strong at 27.06%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio remains healthy, underscoring financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth in TTM, but the company maintains a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.65. This suggests good cash generation relative to net income, although the decrease in free cash flow growth rate indicates potential cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.43B	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
Gross Profit	686.18M	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
EBITDA	765.57M	781.05M	110.46M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
Net Income	461.93M	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	304.05M	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
Total Debt	196.22M	199.73M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
Total Liabilities	585.79M	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.77B	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	291.13M	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow	570.61M	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-263.49M	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-307.76M	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.26, above the 50-day MA of 6.89, and above the 200-day MA of 5.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATH	80 Outperform	$3.43B	7.75	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
POU	74 Outperform	$3.42B	2.50	41.81%	3.36%	-32.36%	282.99%
NVA	74 Outperform	C$3.50B	11.18	13.57%	―	-6.14%	14.09%
BTE	71 Outperform	C$3.42B	15.94	5.16%	2.75%	-8.89%	―
FRU	69 Neutral	$2.28B	18.19	13.00%	7.27%	2.52%	-8.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
IPCO	63 Neutral	C$2.64B	37.97	3.59%	―	-9.12%	-70.87%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance

Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the development of thermal and light oil assets within Alberta’s Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, with a significant focus on its subsidiary, Duvernay Energy Corporation.

Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Continued Growth

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported strong third quarter results for 2025, highlighting consistent operational performance and a solid financial position. The company achieved a 2% year-over-year production growth, with significant cash flow and shareholder returns through share buybacks. Athabasca continues to invest in its Leismer growth project and anticipates further development at its Corner and Hangingstone operations. The company maintains a net cash position and is well-positioned for future growth, with production expected to reach the upper end of its guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATH) stock is a Buy with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athabasca Oil stock, see the TSE:ATH Stock Forecast page.