Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: 3.04%
• EPS Growth: 115.77%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 481,129,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,265,416
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,608,945
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$8.00
• Price Target Upside: 0.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$8.50 ▲(6.38% Upside)

Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are offset by bearish technical indicators. The company's profitability and solid balance sheet are significant strengths, but the recent decline in revenue growth and negative market momentum present risks. The stock's undervaluation offers potential upside if market conditions improve.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & Margins

Sustained high gross, EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate the business extracts strong profitability from operations and maintains efficient cost structures. These margins support durable cash generation, resilience through price cycles, and provide room to fund reinvestment or debt reduction over multiple quarters.

Strong Balance Sheet & Low Leverage

Very low leverage and a high equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund capital programs, withstand commodity downturns, and pursue M&A or joint ventures without stressing solvency. High ROE shows efficient use of capital, supporting long-term shareholder value creation.

Operational Diversification Across Segments

Having both Thermal Oil (SAGD) and Light Oil operations gives Athabasca product and operational diversification. This reduces single-segment exposure, allows capital allocation across asset types, and offers strategic optionality to shift focus based on long-term price and infrastructure dynamics.

Negative Factors

Slowing Revenue Growth

A contraction in top-line growth signals potential demand, production or market-access headwinds. Slower revenue expansion can limit the company’s ability to scale operations, fund new projects organically, or absorb fixed costs, pressuring investment plans and long-term growth trajectory.

Commodity & Infrastructure Exposure

Heavy dependence on crude and gas sales ties cash flows to volatile global prices and local pipeline/market access. Structural infrastructure bottlenecks or prolonged weak prices can curtail realizations, increase basis differentials and materially reduce sustainable free cash flow over quarters to years.

Modest Free Cash Flow Growth

While cash conversion ratios are solid, single-digit FCF growth may be insufficient to fund large capital programs, accelerate debt paydown, or initiate shareholder returns without relying on higher commodity prices. Sustained modest FCF growth can constrain strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through Thermal Oil and Light Oil segments. Its principal properties are in the Greater Placid and Greater Kaybob areas near the Town of Fox Creek in northwestern Alberta; and the Leismer and Hangingstone projects located in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The company produces light and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and natural gas liquids; and bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations. As of December 31, 2021, it held approximately 889,000 net acres of mineral resource leases, licenses, and permits, which include approximately 347,000 net acres of oil sands leases and permits, and approximately 337,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in the Athabasca region of northwestern Alberta; approximately 204,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in northwestern Alberta; and had an interest in approximately 254 gross wells of bitumen, crude oil, and natural gas. The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012. Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company earns income from its Thermal Oil operations by extracting heavy crude oil from oil sands and selling it at market prices, which can be influenced by global oil prices and local infrastructure constraints. Additionally, the Light Oil segment contributes revenue by producing and selling conventional oil and natural gas. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refineries and other market participants. The company may also engage in joint ventures and partnerships to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, which can further support its earnings.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 33.02% and efficient cost management reflected in high EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio and high return on equity. However, the recent decline in revenue growth is a concern.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil's income statement shows a strong net profit margin of 33.02% TTM, indicating robust profitability. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 2.13% TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 46.77% TTM, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 44.78% and 53.88% TTM, respectively, reflecting efficient cost management. Overall, the company demonstrates solid profitability despite recent revenue contraction.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Athabasca Oil is strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity is impressive at 26.26% TTM, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 70.32% TTM, highlighting a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity. Overall, the company maintains a stable and healthy financial position.

Cash Flow

Athabasca Oil's cash flow statement reveals a 7.01% growth in free cash flow TTM, indicating improving cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.10 TTM, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 57.60% TTM, reflecting a good balance between profitability and cash flow generation. Despite these strengths, the company should focus on sustaining cash flow growth to support future operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
Gross Profit	655.71M	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
EBITDA	755.33M	781.05M	110.46M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
Net Income	462.85M	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.53B	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	334.55M	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
Total Debt	198.08M	199.73M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
Total Liabilities	634.41M	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.78B	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	311.53M	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow	540.88M	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-294.38M	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-252.85M	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.17, above the 50-day MA of 7.29, and above the 200-day MA of 6.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTE	75 Outperform	C$3.61B	16.83	5.16%	2.07%	-8.89%	―
NVA	74 Outperform	C$3.60B	11.47	13.57%	―	-6.14%	14.09%
ATH	68 Neutral	C$3.84B	8.91	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
TVE	67 Neutral	C$4.47B	-47.74	-4.70%	1.91%	-1.36%	-149.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
POU	65 Neutral	C$3.71B	2.70	41.81%	2.84%	-32.36%	282.99%
IPCO	60 Neutral	C$3.19B	68.78	3.59%	―	-9.12%	-70.87%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil Unveils 2026 Budget with Focus on Growth and Shareholder Returns

Athabasca Oil Corporation has announced its 2026 budget, emphasizing production growth and cash flow per share enhancements. The company plans to allocate 100% of its Free Cash Flow to share buybacks, supported by a strong balance sheet and strategic capital projects. With significant investments in its Leismer and Corner projects, Athabasca aims to increase production and maintain robust shareholder returns, forecasting substantial Free Cash Flow over the next five years.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATH) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athabasca Oil stock, see the TSE:ATH Stock Forecast page.