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Athabasca Oil
(TSX:ATH)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$11.00
▲(4.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is supported primarily by strong financial health—low leverage and solid cash generation—tempered by cyclical earnings volatility. Technicals add a moderate positive tailwind due to an established uptrend and neutral momentum, while valuation is a key constraint given the higher P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Sustained low debt (D/E ~0.11) provides structural financial flexibility across commodity cycles. It reduces refinancing risk, preserves capacity to fund sustaining growth or opportunistic capex, and supports resilience to downturns without forcing asset sales or distress financing.
Negative Factors
Cyclical earnings volatility
Large year-to-year swings in profitability reflect commodity-price and volume sensitivity. This undermines predictable free cash flow and makes long-term capital allocation, dividend policy, and multi-year investment planning more difficult for management and creditors.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Sustained low debt (D/E ~0.11) provides structural financial flexibility across commodity cycles. It reduces refinancing risk, preserves capacity to fund sustaining growth or opportunistic capex, and supports resilience to downturns without forcing asset sales or distress financing.
Read all positive factors
Athabasca Oil (ATH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.28B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.7
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth-4.92%
EPS Growth-52.64%
CountryCA
Employees187
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.44
Shares Outstanding484,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,265,416
30 Day Avg. Volume2,608,945
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio17.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$12.00Price Target Upside14.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.48B
Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Athabasca Oil Corporation, based in Calgary, Canada, is an energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resources across Alberta's Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company segments its oper...
How the Company Makes Money
Athabasca Oil makes money primarily by producing and selling crude oil (predominantly bitumen/heavy oil) from its upstream assets. Revenue is generated from the sale of produced volumes that are marketed into Canadian and export-linked pricing mar...
Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.35B | 1.31B | 1.44B | 1.20B | 1.50B | 1.02B |
| Gross Profit | 518.17M | 423.06M | 751.90M | 414.79M | 731.03M | 564.58M |
| EBITDA | 477.43M | 508.65M | 781.05M | 110.46M | 370.67M | 649.06M |
| Net Income | 219.39M | 245.11M | 467.74M | -51.22M | 572.27M | 457.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.67B | 2.55B | 2.47B | 2.05B | 2.23B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 290.52M | 316.37M | 344.84M | 343.31M | 197.53M | 223.06M |
| Total Debt | 209.57M | 201.86M | 199.73M | 185.54M | 206.13M | 384.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 708.73M | 657.43M | 610.88M | 465.18M | 519.86M | 716.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.77B | 1.75B | 1.58B | 1.71B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 312.10M | 197.91M | 289.50M | 165.69M | 168.17M | 102.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 499.13M | 520.46M | 557.54M | 305.53M | 315.62M | 194.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -336.90M | -305.77M | -251.34M | 20.56M | -146.00M | 22.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -167.90M | -230.74M | -328.68M | -170.73M | -204.95M | -159.20M |
Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
10.49
Price Trends
11.21
Negative
10.62
Positive
8.94
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
53.63
Neutral
68.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.47, below the 50-day MA of 11.21, and above the 200-day MA of 8.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.
Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$5.28B | 24.72 | 12.23% | ― | -4.92% | -52.64% | |
66 Neutral | C$4.42B | -6.21 | -23.11% | 2.07% | -8.89% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$4.17B | 77.95 | 1.96% | 2.84% | -49.03% | -96.56% | |
60 Neutral | C$6.27B | -69.14 | -5.03% | 1.91% | -5.38% | -139.64% | |
54 Neutral | C$3.54B | 100.23 | 2.73% | ― | -12.72% | -67.54% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
10.93
5.42
98.37%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
5.97
3.50
141.70%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
28.85
8.32
40.55%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
13.02
8.21
170.80%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
31.14
9.20
41.93%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.