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Athabasca Oil
(TSX:ATH)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$11.50
▲(4.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance—especially low leverage and solid cash generation. This is moderated by weaker near-to-intermediate technical positioning (below key moving averages) and a valuation that looks less compelling for a cyclical E&P company given the 23.116 P/E and no provided dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
A very low debt-to-equity (~0.11) and a conservatively positioned balance sheet materially reduce financial risk across commodity cycles. This durability gives the company flexibility to fund operations, absorb short-term price shocks, and pursue opportunistic investments without near-term refinancing pressure.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline
Recent negative revenue trends (-4.2% TTM and -6.76% reported) signal weakening top-line momentum that can erode sustainable cash flow over months. For an upstream E&P, falling revenues reduce headroom for reinvestment and make the company more exposed to prolonged weak commodity pricing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
A very low debt-to-equity (~0.11) and a conservatively positioned balance sheet materially reduce financial risk across commodity cycles. This durability gives the company flexibility to fund operations, absorb short-term price shocks, and pursue opportunistic investments without near-term refinancing pressure.
Read all positive factors
Athabasca Oil (ATH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.10B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.4
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-6.76%
EPS Growth-46.80%
CountryCA
Employees187
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding484,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,265,416
30 Day Avg. Volume2,608,945
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio17.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$12.83Price Target Upside17.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.47B
Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Athabasca Oil Corporation, based in Calgary, Canada, is an energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resources across Alberta's Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company segments its oper...
How the Company Makes Money
Athabasca Oil makes money primarily by producing and selling crude oil (predominantly bitumen/heavy oil) from its upstream assets. Revenue is generated from the sale of produced volumes that are marketed into Canadian and export-linked pricing mar...
Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.31B | 1.44B | 1.20B | 1.50B | 1.02B |
| Gross Profit | 444.56M | 423.06M | 751.90M | 414.79M | 731.03M | 564.58M |
| EBITDA | 496.85M | 508.65M | 781.05M | 110.46M | 370.67M | 649.06M |
| Net Income | 228.69M | 245.11M | 467.74M | -51.22M | 572.27M | 457.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.55B | 2.47B | 2.05B | 2.23B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 291.73M | 316.37M | 344.84M | 343.31M | 197.53M | 223.06M |
| Total Debt | 205.58M | 201.86M | 199.73M | 185.54M | 206.13M | 384.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 650.35M | 657.43M | 610.88M | 465.18M | 519.86M | 716.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.88B | 1.77B | 1.75B | 1.58B | 1.71B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 417.68M | 197.91M | 289.50M | 165.69M | 168.17M | 102.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 531.64M | 520.46M | 557.54M | 305.53M | 315.62M | 194.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -380.51M | -305.77M | -251.34M | 20.56M | -146.00M | 22.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -173.77M | -230.74M | -328.68M | -170.73M | -204.95M | -159.20M |
Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
10.96
Price Trends
10.65
Negative
10.97
Negative
9.38
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
51.34
Neutral
88.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.49, above the 50-day MA of 10.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.
Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$5.10B | 22.37 | 12.57% | ― | -6.76% | -46.80% | |
67 Neutral | C$4.18B | -6.60 | -26.39% | 1.48% | -8.89% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$4.62B | 39.34 | 4.30% | 1.98% | -28.28% | -92.06% | |
62 Neutral | C$6.17B | 184.38 | 1.34% | 1.29% | 7.64% | -86.01% | |
52 Neutral | C$3.61B | 124.00 | 2.33% | ― | 4.38% | -57.68% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
10.56
4.79
83.02%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
6.04
3.32
121.65%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
31.90
12.67
65.88%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
13.22
7.94
150.33%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
32.43
7.67
30.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.