Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 15.99%
• EPS Growth: 1134.34%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 62
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 499,717,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,807,200
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,385,362
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $6.37
• Price Target Upside: 11.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▲(22.81%Upside)

Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and undervaluation are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's robust financials, combined with bullish technical indicators and positive corporate events, suggest a promising outlook. However, potential overbought conditions and historical volatility in financial metrics warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet

The company boasts one of the strongest balance sheets amongst its peers as it is sitting in a net cash position.

Volume Guidance

The company could achieve the upper end of its volume guidance due to the strong start at its thermal assets.

Negative Factors

Market Concerns

The first few months have been tough for ATH's share price due to tariff concerns and OPEC+ supply unwinds.

Stock Performance

ATH's stock has fallen by ~18% year-to-date, primarily due to tariff threats and OPEC+ production unwinds.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) is a Canadian energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, the company operates primarily in the Athabasca region of Alberta, focusing on thermal and light oil projects. ATH is committed to responsible resource development and strives to maximize shareholder value through strategic asset management and operational excellence.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil Corporation generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's operations are divided into two main segments: Thermal Oil and Light Oil. The Thermal Oil segment includes large-scale oil sands projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology to produce bitumen, which is sold as either diluted bitumen or blended crude oil. The Light Oil segment focuses on the development and production of conventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas from its assets in the Montney and Duvernay formations. ATH sells its products to various markets, including refineries and other oil and gas companies. The company's earnings are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures may also play a role in enhancing its production capabilities and accessing new markets.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athabasca Oil exhibits strong financial performance with significant improvements in profitability and cash flow metrics. The company benefits from solid revenue growth and effective cost management, bolstered by a stable balance sheet with low leverage. However, attention should be paid to historical volatility in margins and asset base stability.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability metrics with a robust Net Profit Margin of approximately 34.8% in TTM, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous years. Revenue growth has been impressive, particularly in 2023 and 2024, driven by increased efficiency and higher market demand. The company's Gross Profit Margin is also healthy, indicating effective cost management. However, historical volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests potential exposure to market fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of approximately 0.11 in TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong, showcasing a high proportion of equity financing relative to assets. The Return on Equity is commendable at 28.7%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' funds. Nonetheless, the slight decrease in total assets over the last year warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant increase in Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash. Historical fluctuations in capital expenditure reflect adaptive investment strategies.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.44B	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
Gross Profit	654.69M	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
EBITDA	826.49M	781.05M	111.83M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
Net Income	501.14M	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.46B	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	304.54M	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
Total Debt	196.02M	195.83M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
Total Liabilities	590.70M	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.75B	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	349.40M	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow	604.26M	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-275.31M	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-347.85M	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.77, above the 50-day MA of 5.32, and above the 200-day MA of 5.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATH	80 Outperform	$2.87B	6.05	30.45%	―	15.99%	1134.34%
NVA	74 Outperform	$2.78B	7.53	16.78%	―	-15.57%	-12.73%
BTE	74 Outperform	C$2.08B	6.76	8.02%	3.32%	10.55%	―
POU	69 Neutral	$3.10B	2.01	48.97%	2.78%	2.95%	351.05%
FRU	69 Neutral	$2.11B	13.05	15.22%	8.38%	-1.62%	12.60%
IPCO	67 Neutral	C$2.52B	23.24	8.83%	―	-7.83%	-45.69%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.92B	-1.03	-3.46%	6.02%	3.01%	-47.13%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders were approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to positively impact the company’s governance and operational strategies, reinforcing its position in the energy sector.

Athabasca Oil Corporation Secures Shareholder Approval at 2025 AGM

Athabasca Oil Corporation announced that all matters presented at its 2025 Annual General Meeting have been approved, including the election of eight directors and the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. This approval reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company to continue its strategic focus on developing its thermal and light oil assets, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

Athabasca Oil Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Significant Growth

Athabasca Oil Corporation reported a 63% growth in funds flow per share for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong operational execution and the completion of its second annual share buyback program. The company is well-positioned to handle market volatility with its low break-even costs and long-life assets, supported by a robust balance sheet and significant tax pools. The company’s operations, including projects at Leismer and Hangingstone, continue to generate meaningful free cash flow, and the outlook for Canadian heavy oil remains strong due to favorable market conditions.