Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$4.28B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 3.04%
• EPS Growth: 115.77%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 480,083,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,265,416
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,608,945
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$8.65
• Price Target Upside: -3.02% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.12B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$9.00 ▲(0.90% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 12/19/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 12/19/25

Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are offset by bearish technical indicators. The company's profitability and solid balance sheet are significant strengths, but the recent decline in revenue growth and negative market momentum present risks. The stock's undervaluation offers potential upside if market conditions improve.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Athabasca's very low leverage and high equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility through commodity cycles. Strong ROE shows efficient capital use, enabling sustained investment in operations, debt capacity and resilience to downturns without immediate refinancing needs.

High Profitability & Margins

Consistently high gross and EBITDA margins indicate structural cost advantage and efficient operations in both Thermal and Light segments. Elevated profit margins lower breakeven prices, supporting durability of cash flows and reinvestment capacity across a 2-6 month horizon and beyond.

Improving Cash Generation

Rising free cash flow and strong conversion of earnings into cash suggest sustainable internal funding for capex, maintenance and debt service. This durable cash-generation profile supports strategic flexibility and lowers reliance on external financing over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak Revenue Growth Trend

A declining revenue growth rate signals the company faces challenges expanding volumes or realizations. Over months this can constrain scale-driven margin improvements and limit capacity to fund growth initiatives, making earnings and cash flow gains harder to sustain.

Commodity & Infrastructure Exposure

Athabasca's revenues are structurally tied to oil prices and physical takeaway capacity. Persistent price volatility and regional pipeline or processing bottlenecks can materially reduce realized prices and utilization, creating durable upside/downside to cash flows independent of internal execution.

No Dividend Payout

Lack of a dividend reduces direct cash returns to shareholders and may limit appeal to income-focused investors. Over time this can narrow the shareholder base and place greater emphasis on capital appreciation rather than steady income, affecting long-term investor stability.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through Thermal Oil and Light Oil segments. Its principal properties are in the Greater Placid and Greater Kaybob areas near the Town of Fox Creek in northwestern Alberta; and the Leismer and Hangingstone projects located in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The company produces light and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and natural gas liquids; and bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations. As of December 31, 2021, it held approximately 889,000 net acres of mineral resource leases, licenses, and permits, which include approximately 347,000 net acres of oil sands leases and permits, and approximately 337,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in the Athabasca region of northwestern Alberta; approximately 204,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in northwestern Alberta; and had an interest in approximately 254 gross wells of bitumen, crude oil, and natural gas. The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012. Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company earns income from its Thermal Oil operations by extracting heavy crude oil from oil sands and selling it at market prices, which can be influenced by global oil prices and local infrastructure constraints. Additionally, the Light Oil segment contributes revenue by producing and selling conventional oil and natural gas. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refineries and other market participants. The company may also engage in joint ventures and partnerships to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, which can further support its earnings.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 33.02% and efficient cost management reflected in high EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio and high return on equity. However, the recent decline in revenue growth is a concern.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil's income statement shows a strong net profit margin of 33.02% TTM, indicating robust profitability. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 2.13% TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 46.77% TTM, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 44.78% and 53.88% TTM, respectively, reflecting efficient cost management. Overall, the company demonstrates solid profitability despite recent revenue contraction.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Athabasca Oil is strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity is impressive at 26.26% TTM, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 70.32% TTM, highlighting a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity. Overall, the company maintains a stable and healthy financial position.

Cash Flow

Athabasca Oil's cash flow statement reveals a 7.01% growth in free cash flow TTM, indicating improving cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.10 TTM, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 57.60% TTM, reflecting a good balance between profitability and cash flow generation. Despite these strengths, the company should focus on sustaining cash flow growth to support future operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
Gross Profit	655.71M	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
EBITDA	755.33M	781.05M	110.46M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
Net Income	462.85M	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.53B	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	334.55M	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
Total Debt	198.08M	199.73M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
Total Liabilities	634.41M	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.78B	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	311.53M	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow	540.88M	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-294.38M	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-252.85M	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.58, above the 50-day MA of 7.69, and above the 200-day MA of 6.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTE	75 Outperform	C$4.05B	18.77	5.16%	2.07%	-8.89%	―
ATH	68 Neutral	C$4.28B	9.95	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
TVE	68 Neutral	C$5.05B	-132.61	-4.70%	1.91%	-1.36%	-149.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
POU	65 Neutral	C$3.95B	2.84	41.81%	2.84%	-32.36%	282.99%
IPCO	59 Neutral	C$3.66B	94.12	3.59%	―	-9.12%	-70.87%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil Unveils 2026 Budget with Focus on Growth and Shareholder Returns

Athabasca Oil Corporation has announced its 2026 budget, emphasizing production growth and cash flow per share enhancements. The company plans to allocate 100% of its Free Cash Flow to share buybacks, supported by a strong balance sheet and strategic capital projects. With significant investments in its Leismer and Corner projects, Athabasca aims to increase production and maintain robust shareholder returns, forecasting substantial Free Cash Flow over the next five years.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATH) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athabasca Oil stock, see the TSE:ATH Stock Forecast page.