Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.31B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: 5.67%
• EPS Growth: 479.45%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 492,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,265,416
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,608,945
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.77
• 1Y Price Target: $7.02
• Price Target Upside: 4.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$7.50 ▲(11.11% Upside)

Athabasca Oil's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its score. While technical analysis indicates some bearish trends, the company's robust balance sheet and low P/E ratio suggest potential for future growth. However, challenges in revenue and cash flow growth need to be addressed to sustain momentum.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Recovery

The company's financial recovery and profitability indicate effective management and operational efficiency, which can support long-term growth and stability.

Robust Balance Sheet

A low debt-to-equity ratio suggests prudent financial management, providing the company with flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and withstand economic downturns.

High Return on Equity

High ROE indicates efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits, which can attract investors and support sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue growth can hinder the company's ability to expand and compete, potentially impacting long-term profitability and market position.

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow growth may limit the company's ability to invest in new projects and technologies, affecting future operational capabilities.

Revenue Decline

A recent decline in revenue, despite strong margins, could signal challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, impacting long-term growth prospects.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) is a Canadian oil and gas exploration and production company based in Calgary, Alberta. The company primarily focuses on the development of its oil sands and light oil assets in the Athabasca region of Alberta. Athabasca's core products include crude oil and natural gas, which are extracted through conventional methods and advanced technologies tailored for oil sands extraction. The company aims to maximize the value of its resources while adhering to sustainable practices in the energy sector.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is driven by its production levels, which depend on the efficiency of its extraction operations and market demand for hydrocarbons. Key revenue streams include the sale of bitumen from oil sands projects, light oil production, and natural gas sales. Additionally, Athabasca may engage in joint ventures and partnerships with other energy companies to enhance its operational capabilities and share development costs, thus contributing to its earnings. The fluctuating prices of crude oil and natural gas in the global market significantly impact the company's profitability, along with its ability to manage operational costs effectively.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athabasca Oil exhibits strong financial performance with significant improvements in profitability and cash flow metrics. The company benefits from solid revenue growth and effective cost management, bolstered by a stable balance sheet with low leverage. However, attention should be paid to historical volatility in margins and asset base stability.

Income Statement

Athabasca Oil demonstrates strong profitability metrics with a robust Net Profit Margin of approximately 34.8% in TTM, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous years. Revenue growth has been impressive, particularly in 2023 and 2024, driven by increased efficiency and higher market demand. The company's Gross Profit Margin is also healthy, indicating effective cost management. However, historical volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests potential exposure to market fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of approximately 0.11 in TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong, showcasing a high proportion of equity financing relative to assets. The Return on Equity is commendable at 28.7%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' funds. Nonetheless, the slight decrease in total assets over the last year warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant increase in Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash. Historical fluctuations in capital expenditure reflect adaptive investment strategies.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.43B	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B	464.65M
Gross Profit	686.18M	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M	159.88M
EBITDA	765.57M	781.05M	111.83M	370.67M	649.06M	-457.96M
Net Income	461.93M	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M	-720.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	304.05M	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M	165.20M
Total Debt	196.22M	199.73M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M	559.50M
Total Liabilities	585.79M	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M	858.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.77B	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B	567.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	291.13M	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M	-134.55M
Operating Cash Flow	570.61M	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M	-22.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-263.49M	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M	-60.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-307.76M	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M	-2.58M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.75
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.65, above the 50-day MA of 6.43, and above the 200-day MA of 5.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POU	―	$3.28B	2.24	44.56%	3.99%	-18.29%	317.52%
NVA	―	$3.13B	9.29	14.64%	―	-9.78%	5.12%
ATH	―	$3.31B	7.61	27.01%	―	5.67%	479.45%
FRU	―	$2.29B	18.24	11.89%	7.67%	-0.92%	-23.14%
Sector *	―	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BTE	―	$2.57B	7.10	9.05%	2.82%	-7.76%	―
IPCO	―	C$2.45B	35.30	5.46%	―	-17.88%	-67.55%