Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$5.22B
• Dividend Yield: 1.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.57M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: -1.36%
• EPS Growth: -149.45%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 110
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 485,441,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,067,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,569,273
• PEG Ratio: 0.89
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$10.66
• Price Target Upside: -0.91% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.53B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$11.50 ▲(6.88% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and manageable leverage, supported by a favorable technical uptrend. These positives are tempered by weaker recent profitability (TTM net loss and declining revenue) and a negative P/E, which reduce valuation support.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Robust TTM operating cash flow and materially positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for sustaining capital, debt service and optional returns. The operating cash flow to net income (~3.19x) and recent FCF growth improve resilience through commodity cycles and support multi‑period capital plans.

Manageable leverage / balance sheet capacity

A debt-to-equity near 0.39 and sizable equity relative to debt give the company balance-sheet flexibility to fund development, absorb price shocks, or pursue modest M&A without excessive refinancing stress, reducing structural default and liquidity risk over the medium term.

Diversified upstream revenue streams

An upstream model producing oil, natural gas and NGLs provides multiple commodity exposures and marketing levers. This diversity allows shifting revenue mix and hedging strategies to smooth cash flows across cycles, enhancing long‑term cash generation stability versus a single‑product operator.

Negative Factors

Recent revenue decline and net loss

A trailing decline in revenue combined with a return to a net loss reduces retained earnings and constrains internal reinvestment. If sustained, this trend can pressure dividends, capital programs and credit metrics, and reflects vulnerability to volume, price differentials or operational headwinds.

Earnings volatility and negative ROE

Swinging ROE — from robust positive years to a negative TTM — signals profit sensitivity to commodity cycles and operational variability. Persistent volatility undermines predictable shareholder returns, complicates capital allocation decisions, and can erode equity value if negative ROE episodes recur.

Historic free-cash-flow inconsistency

Prior episodes of negative free cash flow highlight that strong recent FCF is cyclical rather than guaranteed. In downturns, negative FCF can force asset sales, higher leverage, or dividend cuts, making long-term investment and payout forecasting less reliable despite recent improvements.

Tamarack Valley Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin. It primarily holds interests in the Clearwater assets covering an area of approximately 357 sections of land located in Alberta; Charlie Lake assets covering approximately 357 sections of land in the northwestern area of Alberta; Viking light oil play in central and southern Alberta and west central Saskatchewan; Barons Sand oil play in the Penny area of southern Alberta; and heavy oil properties. The company was formerly known as Tango Energy Inc. and changed its name to Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. in June 2010. Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TVE primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and associated natural gas liquids (NGLs). Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold at prevailing market prices (often benchmarked to indices such as WTI for oil and AECO for Canadian natural gas), adjusted for realized differentials based on quality, location, and transportation and marketing costs. The company’s key revenue streams therefore include: (1) crude oil sales, typically the largest contributor when oil volumes and prices are strong; (2) natural gas sales, which vary with gas volumes and regional pricing; and (3) NGL sales (e.g., condensate and other liquids recovered from gas production), which can enhance realized pricing because liquids often sell at different pricing than dry gas. Cash flow is influenced by production volumes, realized commodity prices, royalties paid to governments, operating costs (lifting costs), transportation and processing fees (midstream charges), and capital spending required to drill, complete, and tie in wells. TVE may also use commodity price risk management (hedging) to stabilize cash flows; when used, hedge settlements can increase or decrease realized revenue relative to spot prices depending on market movements. If applicable in a given period, additional cash inflows can come from dispositions of assets, infrastructure/processing arrangements, or other non-core transactions; however, specific partnership structures or contract terms are null.

Tamarack Valley Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a key strength (strong operating cash flow and robust, growing free cash flow), and leverage appears manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.39). Offsetting this, TTM revenue declined (-7.7%) and the company returned to a net loss (net margin -5.6%), with negative ROE, reflecting meaningful earnings volatility.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined (-7.7%) and the company posted a net loss (net margin -5.6%) despite still generating solid gross profit (gross margin ~35.9%). Profitability has been volatile: 2024 was profitable (net margin ~9.3%) while 2022 was stronger (net margin ~23.6%), highlighting meaningful commodity/price-cycle sensitivity. Overall, margins above the gross line remain supportive, but the recent swing back to losses and slowing top-line trend weigh on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity around ~0.39 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and absolute equity remains sizable versus debt, suggesting balance-sheet capacity. However, profitability pressure is showing up in returns: return on equity turned negative in TTM (about -4.5%) after positive returns in 2024 and 2022. Overall positioning is reasonable on leverage, but earnings volatility increases risk to equity value creation.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow was strong (~$779M) and comfortably covered accounting earnings (operating cash flow to net income ~3.19), while free cash flow remained robust (~$379M) and grew ~17.6% versus the prior period. The track record is not perfectly steady (notably negative free cash flow in 2021–2022), but the last two periods show materially improved free-cash-flow durability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.35B	1.74B	1.41B	1.46B	701.05M
Gross Profit	498.57M	584.17M	418.26M	615.12M	268.63M
EBITDA	970.71M	893.54M	884.22M	878.64M	758.48M
Net Income	-36.35M	162.22M	94.20M	345.20M	390.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.36B	3.99B	4.21B	4.62B	2.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.44M	7.39M	2.22M	-75.84M	-10.53M
Total Debt	680.65M	771.89M	839.10M	1.22B	487.97M
Total Liabilities	1.54B	1.87B	2.03B	2.46B	1.07B
Stockholders Equity	1.83B	2.12B	2.17B	2.16B	1.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	378.88M	380.56M	115.17M	-606.52M	-349.52M
Operating Cash Flow	778.90M	833.21M	631.63M	805.38M	297.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-403.73M	-453.38M	-378.02M	-1.27B	-581.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-377.11M	-374.66M	-253.61M	465.18M	283.17M

Tamarack Valley Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.89, above the 50-day MA of 9.10, and above the 200-day MA of 6.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TVE.

Tamarack Valley Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATH	80 Outperform	C$4.28B	14.32	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
PEY	78 Outperform	C$5.74B	10.89	13.75%	5.77%	11.52%	24.76%
POU	73 Outperform	$4.27B	2.70	48.07%	2.84%	-32.36%	282.99%
TVE	68 Neutral	C$5.22B	-110.02	-4.70%	1.91%	-1.36%	-149.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BTE	65 Neutral	$4.02B	―	-16.23%	2.07%	-8.89%	―

Tamarack Valley Energy Corporate Events

Tamarack Valley Energy Posts Strong 2025 Results as Clearwater Growth, Waterflood Gains Drive Lower Costs

Tamarack Valley Energy reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by higher production, lower operating costs and robust free funds flow despite weaker WTI prices. The company’s Clearwater assets drove a 16% year-over-year production increase, while net operating expenses per boe fell 17% and full-year free funds flow rose 10%, helping support dividends, share buybacks and net debt reduction.

The producer accelerated its shift toward high-margin Clearwater development, expanding waterflood operations and investing $400 million in 2025, down 11% from the prior year as sustaining capital needs declined. Proved developed producing reserves grew 31% and total proved plus probable reserves rose 18%, positioning Tamarack with a lower corporate breakeven near US$35 WTI and a modest decline rate, which together underpin ongoing shareholder returns and reinforce its competitive standing among Canadian unconventional oil players.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Tamarack Valley Energy Declares December 2025 Dividend

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. announced a monthly dividend declaration of C$0.013333 per share for December 2025, payable on January 15, 2026. This dividend declaration reflects Tamarack’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders and maintaining financial stability, which is crucial for its operations and strategic positioning in the oil and natural gas industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.