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Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TSE:TVE)
TSX:TVE
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Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TVE

Tamarack Valley Energy

(TSX:TVE)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(10.70% Upside)
Tamarack Valley Energy's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's robust production growth, strategic acquisitions, and effective debt management are key strengths. Technical indicators support a positive trend, while valuation metrics suggest the stock is reasonably priced. Challenges such as oil price volatility and operational efficiency concerns are noted but do not overshadow the overall positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Enhanced margins are forecasted to boost annual free funds flow by $50 million, reaching $375-450 million, indicating improved financial health.
Insider Confidence
Insider buying across the company signals confidence in the company's future prospects and performance.
Operational Efficiency
TVE expects to achieve its target debt level two years ahead of schedule, indicating strong financial management and operational efficiency.
Negative Factors
Debt and Growth
With many of these acquisitions funded with debt, a slowdown in organic growth is likely as the company re-builds.

Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Tamarack Valley Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTamarack Valley Energy (TVE) is a Canadian oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company operates primarily in the regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan, where it leverages its expertise in horizontal drilling and enhanced oil recovery techniques to optimize production from its diverse asset portfolio. TVE is committed to sustainable practices and aims to balance economic growth with environmental stewardship.
How the Company Makes MoneyTamarack Valley Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is based on the extraction and marketing of hydrocarbons, where it sells its production to various customers, including refiners and natural gas marketers, at market prices. Key revenue streams include sales from light oil, heavy oil, and natural gas, with a significant emphasis on oil production, which typically commands higher prices. Additionally, TVE benefits from cost efficiencies achieved through technological advancements and operational optimization, which enhance profitability. The company may also engage in joint ventures or partnerships with other energy firms to share resources and expertise, further contributing to its financial performance.

Tamarack Valley Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, including record production, successful debt reduction, and strategic acquisitions that enhance Tamarack Valley's position. Despite challenges such as oil price volatility and temporary production reductions, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong operational and financial performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Production
Tamarack Valley Energy set a new corporate production record, averaging 70,260 BOEs per day in Q2 2025, with a peak of over 74,300 BOE per day in April.
Debt Reduction Success
Net debt was reduced by 19% year-over-year, down to $711 million, with a successful bond offering supporting debt laddering.
Waterflood Success and Expansion
Strong production response from waterflood patterns exceeded baseline volumes, with water injection rates in the Clearwater increasing to 20,000 barrels per day and a target of 30,000 barrels by year-end.
Increased Production and Decreased Costs
Production guidance for 2025 was revised up by 3%, capital spending was reduced by 7%, and production expenses were reduced by 5%.
Strategic Acquisition
Closed a $51.5 million acquisition of a Clearwater producer, adding 17% to Clearwater land holdings and enhancing synergies.
Negative Updates
Impact of Oil Price Volatility
Despite performance improvements, Tamarack Valley faced an 8% drop in WTI oil prices, affecting financial results.
Production Challenges in Q3
Planned turnarounds in the Clearwater and Charlie Lake regions are expected to reduce Q3 production by 1,500 to 2,000 BOE per day.
Company Guidance
During the Tamarack Valley Energy Limited Q2 2025 conference call, the company announced numerous positive updates in its guidance metrics. Tamarack achieved a new corporate production record, averaging 70,260 BOE per day in Q2, with April production reaching over 74,300 BOE per day. The company's Q2 debt-adjusted production per share increased by 24% year-over-year, reflecting the compounding impact of share buybacks and organic growth. Tamarack revised its 2025 production guidance upward by 3% and reduced capital spending by 7%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and cost improvements. The company also reported a year-on-year net debt reduction of 19% to $711 million. A strategic $51.5 million Clearwater tuck-in acquisition was completed, adding 1,100 barrels per day of heavy oil production and increasing Clearwater land holdings by 17%. Tamarack's waterflood program continues to demonstrate success, with the Clearwater growing 16% year-over-year and water injection rates reaching 20,000 barrels per day, aiming for over 30,000 barrels per day by year-end. Financially, Tamarack generated Q2 adjusted funds flow of $197 million ($0.39 per share) and free funds flow of $133 million ($0.26 per share), with share repurchases totaling 10.1 million shares year-to-date. The company's 2025 production guidance range was increased to 67,000 to 69,000 BOE per day, with capital guidance reduced to $400 million to $420 million, reflecting a 7% decrease.

Tamarack Valley Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tamarack Valley Energy shows strong financial performance with significant revenue and cash flow growth. The company has improved its debt management and maintains a solid equity position. However, the lack of EBIT raises concerns about operational efficiency.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Tamarack Valley Energy has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 23.86% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 33.53%, and the net profit margin improved to 9.31% in 2024. However, EBIT was zero, which may indicate operational challenges. EBITDA margin remains robust at 50.42%, highlighting effective cost management. Overall, the income statement reflects solid growth and profitability, but the absence of EBIT is a concern.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.36, showing improved leverage management. The equity ratio is healthy at 53.18%, suggesting a strong equity base. Return on equity is moderate at 7.65%, indicating potential for higher profitability. The balance sheet is stable with a strong equity position, but there is room for improvement in profitability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Operating cash flow improved significantly by 31.92% from 2023 to 2024, and free cash flow grew by 231.92%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 5.14, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.36, both demonstrating efficient cash utilization. Cash flow stability is a key strength, though maintaining this trajectory is crucial.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.74B1.74B1.41B1.46B701.05M222.07M
Gross Profit591.62M584.17M418.26M615.12M268.63M-9.64M
EBITDA990.02M893.54M884.22M878.64M758.48M-265.57M
Net Income250.57M162.22M94.20M345.20M390.51M-311.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.86B3.99B4.21B4.62B2.33B1.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.75M7.39M2.22M-75.84M-10.53M-10.15M
Total Debt747.69M771.89M860.65M1.22B487.97M221.01M
Total Liabilities1.73B1.87B2.03B2.46B1.07B518.08M
Stockholders Equity2.13B2.12B2.17B2.16B1.26B509.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow386.43M380.56M115.17M-606.52M-349.52M21.75M
Operating Cash Flow819.77M833.21M631.63M805.38M297.89M125.29M
Investing Cash Flow-403.64M-453.38M-378.02M-1.27B-581.06M-181.56M
Financing Cash Flow-415.60M-374.66M-253.61M465.18M283.17M56.27M

Tamarack Valley Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.42
Price Trends
50DMA
5.14
Positive
100DMA
4.59
Positive
200DMA
4.48
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Positive
RSI
58.41
Neutral
STOCH
68.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.36, above the 50-day MA of 5.14, and above the 200-day MA of 4.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TVE.

Tamarack Valley Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$2.70B11.3511.47%2.82%-5.67%107.06%
65
Neutral
$15.26B7.313.02%5.32%4.27%-62.52%
C$80.10M3.9512.72%
C$169.80M232.82-1.84%
C$115.71M2.53
$44.33M-350.57%
C$78.12M2.2425.78%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
5.42
1.49
37.95%
TSE:AKT.B
Akita Drilling Cl B
2.15
0.10
4.88%
TSE:ORC.A
Orca Exploration Group Inc
61.00
0.40
0.66%
TSE:SGQ
SouthGobi Resources
0.39
-0.05
-11.36%
RDRIF
New Stratus Energy
0.34
0.00
0.00%
TSE:HAM
Highwood Oil Co. Ltd.
5.18
-0.87
-14.38%

Tamarack Valley Energy Corporate Events

Dividends
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares Monthly Dividend
Positive
Aug 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.01275 per share, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 29, 2025. This declaration reflects the company’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders and maintaining financial stability, which may enhance its market positioning and offer potential benefits to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsStock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tamarack Valley Energy Reports Record Q2 Production and Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Jul 30, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. reported record quarterly production in Q2 2025, with a 19% year-over-year increase in production per share. The company has improved its capital efficiencies, resulting in strong free funds flow and increased shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividends. Tamarack has also updated its 2025 guidance, increasing production expectations and reducing capital spending. The company completed a strategic acquisition in the Clearwater area, enhancing its production capabilities and land holdings, and successfully issued senior notes to strengthen its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tamarack Valley Energy Secures $325 Million in New Notes, Enhances Financial Stability
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has successfully closed a private placement offering of $325 million in senior unsecured notes due in 2030, with a 6.875% interest rate. The proceeds are being used to repay part of the company’s credit facility and redeem a portion of its existing $300 million notes due in 2027. This financial maneuver is expected to enhance Tamarack’s financial stability and operational flexibility, potentially improving its market positioning and value proposition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares Monthly Dividend
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.01275 per share, payable on August 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 31, 2025. This dividend declaration aligns with the company’s strategy of returning capital to shareholders and reflects its commitment to financial stability and sustainable growth, potentially enhancing its market position and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tamarack Valley Energy Announces $325 Million Note Offering to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy announced the pricing of $325 million in senior unsecured notes due in 2030, as part of a refinancing strategy to extend debt maturities and enhance financial flexibility. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s capital structure, allowing it to focus on growth and development while maintaining a robust balance sheet, benefiting stakeholders by providing a more resilient financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares Dividend and Extends Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.01275 per share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. Additionally, the company has extended its $875 million credit facility by one year to April 30, 2028, maintaining access to over $400 million of undrawn credit, which supports its financial stability and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares Monthly Dividend
Positive
May 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.01275 per share, payable on June 16, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 30, 2025. This dividend declaration aligns with the company’s commitment to financial stability and returning capital to shareholders, potentially enhancing its market position and providing value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025