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Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TSE:TVE)
TSX:TVE
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Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) AI Stock Analysis

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Tamarack Valley Energy

(TSX:TVE)

Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(20.72%Upside)
Tamarack Valley Energy's strong financial performance, robust technical indicators, and positive earnings call sentiment are key strengths. A fair valuation combined with attractive dividends further supports the stock's potential, though operational efficiency remains a concern due to the lack of EBIT.
Positive Factors
Financial Management
TVE expects to achieve its target debt level two years ahead of schedule, indicating strong financial management and operational efficiency.
Insider Buying
Insider buying across the company signals confidence in the company's future prospects and performance.
Strategic Shift
Tamarack's strategic shift toward the Charlie Lake and Clearwater plays has significantly extended inventory duration and enhanced forward-looking profitability.
Negative Factors
Debt and Growth
With many of these acquisitions funded with debt, a slowdown in organic growth is likely as the company re-builds.
Organic Growth
Unfortunately, with many of these acquisitions funded with debt, we're likely to see a slowdown in organic growth as the company re-builds.

Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Tamarack Valley Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE) is a Calgary-based oil and gas exploration and production company operating in the energy sector. It focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in Western Canada. The company's core assets are located in the Cardium, Viking, and Clearwater regions, where it applies innovative technologies to maximize resource recovery and operational efficiency.
How the Company Makes MoneyTamarack Valley Energy Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its oil and gas products in the open market, where prices are influenced by global commodity markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of light and medium crude oil, heavy oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Tamarack Valley Energy enhances its earnings through strategic acquisitions of undervalued assets and maintaining a focus on cost efficiency and operational excellence. Additionally, partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies can play a significant role in sharing risks and optimizing resource development.

Tamarack Valley Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 37.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant production growth, cost efficiency, and strong shareholder returns, while maintaining financial resilience despite oil price contractions. The company demonstrated operational efficiency and maintained a strong balance sheet. However, potential challenges such as oil price fluctuations and planned turnarounds were noted. Overall, the sentiment is largely positive with a few areas of concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Levels
Production averaged 67,697 BOEs per day, up 9% from Q1 '24. The total oil and liquids production of 57,594 BOE per day was the highest in the company's history.
Significant Year-over-Year Growth
Tamarack achieved a production growth of 15% in the Clearwater and 9% in the Charlie Lake year-over-year. Adjusted funds flow increased by 33% year-over-year.
Cost Reductions and Operational Efficiency
Operating netback increased by 13% year-over-year, driven by cost structure improvements. Production expenses were 23% lower compared to Q1 2024.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Discipline
The company returned over $246 million to shareholders in dividends and buybacks over the last 12 months. Initiated buybacks in January 2024, repurchasing approximately 9% of the 2023 year-end shares outstanding.
Strong Financial Position
Net debt-to-EBITDA fell to 0.7x on a trailing 12-month basis, with over $400 million of undrawn credit capacity.
Waterflood Program Expansion
Increased water injection rates in the Clearwater to over 15,000 barrels a day, with plans to double this by the end of 2025.
Negative Updates
Oil Price Contraction
While oil prices have contracted, Tamarack retains a strong outlook, though it highlights potential challenges in maintaining profitability.
Potential Impact of Turnarounds
Larger turnaround projects planned for Q3 2025 could affect production levels temporarily.
Company Guidance
During the Tamarack Valley Energy Limited Q1 2025 conference call, CEO Brian Schmidt highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company reported a production average of 67,697 BOEs per day, marking a 9% increase from Q1 2024. The Clearwater and Charlie Lake areas demonstrated significant year-over-year production growth of 15% and 9%, respectively. The company also advanced its waterflood development, increasing water injection rates to over 15,000 barrels per day, with plans to double this by the end of 2025. CFO Steve Buytels noted a 33% year-over-year rise in adjusted funds flow to $226 million and a 100% increase in free funds flow to $91 million. Operating netback improved by 13% to $47.37 per BOE, driven by reduced production expenses and cost efficiencies. Tamarack's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio fell to 0.7x, reflecting a strong balance sheet with over $400 million in undrawn credit capacity. While the 2025 guidance remains unchanged, the company anticipates full-year production to trend toward the higher end of the 65,000 to 67,000 BOE per day range, emphasizing strategic capital deployment and resilience to market volatility.

Tamarack Valley Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tamarack Valley Energy shows strong financial performance with significant revenue and cash flow growth. The company has improved its debt management and maintains a solid equity position. However, the lack of EBIT raises concerns about operational efficiency.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Tamarack Valley Energy has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 23.86% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 33.53%, and the net profit margin improved to 9.31% in 2024. However, EBIT was zero, which may indicate operational challenges. EBITDA margin remains robust at 50.42%, highlighting effective cost management. Overall, the income statement reflects solid growth and profitability, but the absence of EBIT is a concern.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.36, showing improved leverage management. The equity ratio is healthy at 53.18%, suggesting a strong equity base. Return on equity is moderate at 7.65%, indicating potential for higher profitability. The balance sheet is stable with a strong equity position, but there is room for improvement in profitability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Operating cash flow improved significantly by 31.92% from 2023 to 2024, and free cash flow grew by 231.92%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 5.14, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.36, both demonstrating efficient cash utilization. Cash flow stability is a key strength, though maintaining this trajectory is crucial.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.74B1.41B1.46B701.05M222.07M
Gross Profit584.17M418.26M615.12M268.63M-9.64M
EBITDA893.54M884.22M878.64M758.48M-265.57M
Net Income162.22M94.20M345.20M390.51M-311.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.99B4.21B4.62B2.33B1.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.39M2.22M-75.84M-10.53M-10.15M
Total Debt771.89M860.65M1.22B487.97M221.01M
Total Liabilities1.87B2.03B2.46B1.07B518.08M
Stockholders Equity2.12B2.17B2.16B1.26B509.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow380.56M115.17M-606.52M-349.52M21.75M
Operating Cash Flow833.21M631.63M805.38M297.89M125.29M
Investing Cash Flow-453.38M-378.02M-1.27B-581.06M-181.56M
Financing Cash Flow-374.66M-253.61M465.18M283.17M56.27M

Tamarack Valley Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4.97
Price Trends
50DMA
4.64
Positive
100DMA
4.28
Positive
200DMA
4.31
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Positive
RSI
57.71
Neutral
STOCH
40.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.93, above the 50-day MA of 4.64, and above the 200-day MA of 4.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TVE.

Tamarack Valley Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSTVE
82
Outperform
$2.49B10.2512.43%3.12%1.01%357.91%
65
Neutral
6.18B16.771.38%8.60%33.60%18.24%
TSNSE
44
Neutral
C$57.32M-350.57%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
4.97
1.24
33.14%
TSE:NSE
New Stratus Energy
0.43
-0.12
-21.82%

Tamarack Valley Energy Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares Monthly Dividend
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.01275 per share, payable on August 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 31, 2025. This dividend declaration aligns with the company’s strategy of returning capital to shareholders and reflects its commitment to financial stability and sustainable growth, potentially enhancing its market position and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tamarack Valley Energy Announces $325 Million Note Offering to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy announced the pricing of $325 million in senior unsecured notes due in 2030, as part of a refinancing strategy to extend debt maturities and enhance financial flexibility. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s capital structure, allowing it to focus on growth and development while maintaining a robust balance sheet, benefiting stakeholders by providing a more resilient financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares Dividend and Extends Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.01275 per share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. Additionally, the company has extended its $875 million credit facility by one year to April 30, 2028, maintaining access to over $400 million of undrawn credit, which supports its financial stability and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares Monthly Dividend
Positive
May 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.01275 per share, payable on June 16, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 30, 2025. This dividend declaration aligns with the company’s commitment to financial stability and returning capital to shareholders, potentially enhancing its market position and providing value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
Tamarack Valley Energy Announces Successful AGM Voting Results
Positive
May 8, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. announced that all resolutions at its annual general meeting were approved, with 52.68% of its common shares represented. Eight directors were elected, and KPMG LLP was appointed as auditors, reflecting strong shareholder support and stability in the company’s governance.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tamarack Valley Energy Reports Record Oil Production and Financial Growth in Q1 2025
Positive
May 7, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy announced record quarterly oil production for Q1 2025, driven by successful waterflood investments in its Clearwater assets, resulting in a 15% production increase. The company reported a 33% year-over-year increase in adjusted funds flow per share and a 100% increase in free funds flow per share, supported by higher margins and cost improvements. Tamarack also reduced its net debt and continued share buybacks, enhancing shareholder returns.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 15, 2025