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Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TSE:TVE)
TSX:TVE
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Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TVE

Tamarack Valley Energy

(TSX:TVE)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$8.00
▲(5.26% Upside)
Tamarack Valley Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting record production and strategic acquisitions. However, technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, and valuation concerns persist due to a negative P/E ratio. The company's ability to maintain operational efficiency and profitability improvements will be crucial for future performance.
Positive Factors
Debt Management
Effective debt reduction enhances financial stability and flexibility, allowing the company to invest in growth opportunities and weather market fluctuations.
Production Efficiency
Increased production efficiency and reduced capital spending indicate improved operational management, which can lead to higher margins and profitability.
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition expands resource holdings and enhances synergies, potentially increasing production capacity and long-term revenue streams.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Decline
A decline in revenue growth can signal challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, potentially impacting future profitability and market position.
Operational Challenges
Zero EBIT suggests potential inefficiencies or cost management issues, which could hinder profitability and require strategic adjustments to improve operations.
Oil Price Volatility
Volatility in oil prices can lead to unpredictable revenue and profit margins, posing a risk to financial stability and planning in the oil and gas sector.

Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Tamarack Valley Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTamarack Valley Energy Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin. It primarily holds interests in the Clearwater assets covering an area of approximately 357 sections of land located in Alberta; Charlie Lake assets covering approximately 357 sections of land in the northwestern area of Alberta; Viking light oil play in central and southern Alberta and west central Saskatchewan; Barons Sand oil play in the Penny area of southern Alberta; and heavy oil properties. The company was formerly known as Tango Energy Inc. and changed its name to Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. in June 2010. Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTamarack Valley Energy generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company employs a revenue model that includes the extraction of hydrocarbons from its operated and non-operated properties, leveraging its assets in key resource plays. TVE's key revenue streams consist of direct sales of oil and gas to refiners, marketers, and utility companies, as well as the monetization of production through long-term contracts and spot market sales. Strategic partnerships with other industry players and infrastructure investments also contribute to its earnings, allowing TVE to optimize logistics and reduce operational costs. Additionally, the company may benefit from hedging activities to manage price volatility in the energy markets.

Tamarack Valley Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, including record production, successful debt reduction, and strategic acquisitions that enhance Tamarack Valley's position. Despite challenges such as oil price volatility and temporary production reductions, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong operational and financial performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Production
Tamarack Valley Energy set a new corporate production record, averaging 70,260 BOEs per day in Q2 2025, with a peak of over 74,300 BOE per day in April.
Debt Reduction Success
Net debt was reduced by 19% year-over-year, down to $711 million, with a successful bond offering supporting debt laddering.
Waterflood Success and Expansion
Strong production response from waterflood patterns exceeded baseline volumes, with water injection rates in the Clearwater increasing to 20,000 barrels per day and a target of 30,000 barrels by year-end.
Increased Production and Decreased Costs
Production guidance for 2025 was revised up by 3%, capital spending was reduced by 7%, and production expenses were reduced by 5%.
Strategic Acquisition
Closed a $51.5 million acquisition of a Clearwater producer, adding 17% to Clearwater land holdings and enhancing synergies.
Negative Updates
Impact of Oil Price Volatility
Despite performance improvements, Tamarack Valley faced an 8% drop in WTI oil prices, affecting financial results.
Production Challenges in Q3
Planned turnarounds in the Clearwater and Charlie Lake regions are expected to reduce Q3 production by 1,500 to 2,000 BOE per day.
Company Guidance
During the Tamarack Valley Energy Limited Q2 2025 conference call, the company announced numerous positive updates in its guidance metrics. Tamarack achieved a new corporate production record, averaging 70,260 BOE per day in Q2, with April production reaching over 74,300 BOE per day. The company's Q2 debt-adjusted production per share increased by 24% year-over-year, reflecting the compounding impact of share buybacks and organic growth. Tamarack revised its 2025 production guidance upward by 3% and reduced capital spending by 7%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and cost improvements. The company also reported a year-on-year net debt reduction of 19% to $711 million. A strategic $51.5 million Clearwater tuck-in acquisition was completed, adding 1,100 barrels per day of heavy oil production and increasing Clearwater land holdings by 17%. Tamarack's waterflood program continues to demonstrate success, with the Clearwater growing 16% year-over-year and water injection rates reaching 20,000 barrels per day, aiming for over 30,000 barrels per day by year-end. Financially, Tamarack generated Q2 adjusted funds flow of $197 million ($0.39 per share) and free funds flow of $133 million ($0.26 per share), with share repurchases totaling 10.1 million shares year-to-date. The company's 2025 production guidance range was increased to 67,000 to 69,000 BOE per day, with capital guidance reduced to $400 million to $420 million, reflecting a 7% decrease.

Tamarack Valley Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tamarack Valley Energy shows strong financial performance with significant revenue and cash flow growth. The company has improved its debt management and maintains a solid equity position. However, the lack of EBIT raises concerns about operational efficiency. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with opportunities to enhance profitability.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Tamarack Valley Energy has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 23.86% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 33.53%, and the net profit margin improved to 9.31% in 2024. However, EBIT was zero, which may indicate operational challenges. EBITDA margin remains robust at 50.42%, highlighting effective cost management. Overall, the income statement reflects solid growth and profitability, but the absence of EBIT is a concern.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.36, showing improved leverage management. The equity ratio is healthy at 53.18%, suggesting a strong equity base. Return on equity is moderate at 7.65%, indicating potential for higher profitability. The balance sheet is stable with a strong equity position, but there is room for improvement in profitability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Operating cash flow improved significantly by 31.92% from 2023 to 2024, and free cash flow grew by 231.92%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 5.14, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.36, both demonstrating efficient cash utilization. Cash flow stability is a key strength, though maintaining this trajectory is crucial.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.74B1.74B1.41B1.46B701.05M222.07M
Gross Profit591.62M584.17M418.26M615.12M268.63M-9.64M
EBITDA990.02M893.54M884.22M878.64M758.48M-265.57M
Net Income250.57M162.22M94.20M345.20M390.51M-311.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.86B3.99B4.21B4.62B2.33B1.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.75M7.39M2.22M-75.84M-10.53M-10.15M
Total Debt747.69M771.89M839.10M1.22B487.97M221.01M
Total Liabilities1.73B1.87B2.03B2.46B1.07B518.08M
Stockholders Equity2.13B2.12B2.17B2.16B1.26B509.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow386.43M380.56M115.17M-606.52M-349.52M21.75M
Operating Cash Flow819.77M833.21M631.63M805.38M297.89M125.29M
Investing Cash Flow-403.64M-453.38M-378.02M-1.27B-581.06M-181.56M
Financing Cash Flow-415.60M-374.66M-253.61M465.18M283.17M56.27M

Tamarack Valley Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.60
Price Trends
50DMA
6.31
Positive
100DMA
5.76
Positive
200DMA
4.97
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.34
Negative
RSI
80.87
Negative
STOCH
89.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.70, above the 50-day MA of 6.31, and above the 200-day MA of 4.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TVE.

Tamarack Valley Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$3.63B-4.70%2.01%-1.36%-149.45%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
44
Neutral
$57.04M-4.18-434.16%-23.72%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
7.60
3.27
75.60%
TSE:AKT.B
Akita Drilling Cl B
2.15
-0.07
-3.15%
TSE:ORC.A
Orca Exploration Group Inc
61.00
1.39
2.33%
TSE:SGQ
SouthGobi Resources
0.21
-0.43
-67.19%
TSE:NSE
New Stratus Energy
0.41
-0.28
-41.30%
TSE:HAM
Highwood Oil Co. Ltd.
4.55
-1.47
-24.42%

Tamarack Valley Energy Corporate Events

Dividends
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares November 2025 Dividend
Positive
Nov 14, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.013333 per share, payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 30, 2025. This dividend declaration aligns with the company’s policy and is designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian income tax purposes, reflecting Tamarack’s commitment to shareholder value and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Tamarack Valley Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Oct 30, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd., a Canadian company engaged in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas, operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin with a focus on heavy oil and light oil projects in Northern Alberta.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Tamarack Valley Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Developments
Positive
Oct 29, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with significant cash flow and improved margins despite lower commodity prices. The company is expanding its waterflood development program, which is expected to enhance production growth and reduce corporate decline rates. Tamarack has also increased its dividend and is transitioning to a quarterly dividend schedule. The company completed a strategic acquisition and divestiture, optimizing its portfolio and reducing production expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tamarack Valley Energy Completes Strategic Asset Sale to Focus on Core Operations
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has completed the sale of its non-core assets in Eastern Alberta for $112 million, marking its transition to a pure-play Clearwater and Charlie Lake operator. This strategic divestment strengthens the company’s financial foundation, allowing it to focus on debt reduction and potentially increase shareholder returns or accelerate development in its core areas.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares October 2025 Dividend
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.01275 per share, payable on November 14, 2025, to shareholders of record on October 31, 2025. This dividend declaration aligns with the company’s policy and is marked as eligible for Canadian income tax purposes, reflecting Tamarack’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tamarack Valley Energy Sells Non-Core Assets to Focus on Clearwater and Charlie Lake
Positive
Sep 18, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced the sale of its remaining non-core producing assets in Eastern Alberta for $112 million, marking its transformation into a pure-play Clearwater and Charlie Lake producer. This strategic divestiture is expected to enhance the company’s financial position by reducing asset retirement obligations by $63 million and improving net production expenses by approximately 10%. The proceeds will be used to reduce net debt, offering the company flexibility for future shareholder returns or accelerated development in its core areas. The divestiture aligns with Tamarack’s long-term plan to reach a net debt target of $500 million by 2027, while maintaining its 2025 production guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Tamarack Valley Energy Declares September 2025 Dividend
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly cash dividend of C$0.01275 per share for September 2025, payable on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2025. This dividend declaration aligns with the company’s dividend policy and is designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian income tax purposes, reflecting Tamarack’s commitment to returning capital to its shareholders and maintaining financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TVE) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tamarack Valley Energy stock, see the TSE:TVE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 18, 2025