Peyto Exploration & Dev (PEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.87B
• Dividend Yield: 6.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 700.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 7.02%
• EPS Growth: 7.16%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 53
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 200,666,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 824,259
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 700,859
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$22.08
• Price Target Upside: 15.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$21.50 ▲(12.45% Upside)

Peyto Exploration & Dev's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and effective operational strategies, supported by reasonable valuation metrics. The earnings call provided positive insights into the company's strategic direction. However, technical indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment, and economic uncertainties pose potential challenges.

Positive Factors

Dividend and Hedging Strategy

Peyto shares currently offer a compelling dividend yield of roughly 7%, supported by the company's hedging program and industry-leading cost structure.

Financial Performance

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp reported strong Q1 results, with realized pricing significantly exceeding industry benchmarks.

Operational Efficiency

Peyto's production and financial metrics met or exceeded expectations, demonstrating operational efficiency and effective cost management.

Negative Factors

Hedging Limitations

Although the extensive hedge book has protected its high-yielding base dividend at lower natural gas prices, it has also constrained its upside to any potential improvements in natural gas prices relative to its peers.

Market Exposure

The company has no exposure to floating AECO prices, which will remove any upside associated with LNG Canada.

Stock Rating

The analyst has reduced the stock rating to HOLD from Buy due to relative valuation concerns after a strong performance period.

Peyto Exploration & Dev Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (PEY) is a Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in Western Canada. Operating within the energy sector, Peyto focuses on the efficient development of unconventional resources, particularly in the Deep Basin of Alberta, where it holds significant land positions and production facilities. The company is known for its low-cost operations and vertical integration, which includes ownership of natural gas processing facilities and infrastructure to enhance operational efficiency and maximize production value.

How the Company Makes Money

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company's revenue model is based on extracting hydrocarbons from its reserves and selling them in the open market. Key revenue streams include the sale of natural gas, NGLs, and crude oil, with natural gas being the predominant product. Peyto's earnings are influenced by factors such as production volumes, commodity prices, and operational efficiency. The company also benefits from its strategic partnerships and agreements with midstream service providers, enabling it to transport and process its products effectively. Additionally, Peyto focuses on maintaining a low-cost structure, which helps enhance its profitability even in fluctuating commodity price environments.

Peyto Exploration & Dev Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Peyto Exploration & Dev exhibits strong profitability and operational efficiency with robust margins and debt management. However, revenue consistency and cash flow volatility pose potential risks. Attention is needed for revenue growth strategies and cash flow stabilization.

Income Statement

Peyto Exploration & Dev has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 49.4%, indicating healthy cost management. The net profit margin is around 31.7%, suggesting strong profitability in the current period. However, the revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline in 2022 but a slight recovery in the most recent period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, at 25.0% and 92.4% respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet exhibits a stable financial structure. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.52, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity is about 11.4%, showing a reasonable return for shareholders. The equity ratio is approximately 48.4%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Overall, Peyto maintains a healthy balance between debt and equity, though the slight decline in equity year-on-year warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a solid performance with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.36, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.86, reflecting decent cash availability after capital expenditures. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been volatile, highlighting potential cash flow management challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	908.25M	945.51M	1.63B	911.98M	399.99M
Gross Profit	421.22M	424.58M	1.07B	575.60M	124.26M
EBITDA	849.88M	778.10M	872.94M	517.66M	261.29M
Net Income	280.57M	292.63M	390.66M	152.25M	-35.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.51B	5.51B	4.01B	3.78B	3.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.63M	37.18M	11.90M	5.72M	9.31M
Total Debt	1.36B	1.40B	864.52M	1.07B	1.18B
Total Liabilities	2.81B	2.79B	1.95B	2.02B	1.92B
Stockholders Equity	2.70B	2.71B	2.06B	1.77B	1.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	215.49M	233.84M	304.92M	92.82M	-32.65M
Operating Cash Flow	672.36M	644.87M	811.78M	457.87M	203.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-432.24M	-1.15B	-516.91M	-351.43M	-232.58M
Financing Cash Flow	-263.66M	527.27M	-288.68M	-110.03M	32.66M

Peyto Exploration & Dev Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.15, below the 50-day MA of 19.29, and above the 200-day MA of 17.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PEY.

Peyto Exploration & Dev Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCP	79 Outperform	$12.53B	6.94	11.56%	7.25%	12.28%	16.78%
ATH	76 Outperform	$2.80B	6.44	27.01%	―	5.67%	479.45%
NVA	74 Outperform	$2.81B	8.15	14.64%	―	-9.78%	5.12%
PEY	71 Outperform	C$3.87B	11.56	12.21%	6.90%	7.02%	7.16%
POU	69 Neutral	$2.91B	1.99	44.56%	5.51%	-18.29%	317.52%
IPCO	69 Neutral	C$2.77B	39.51	5.46%	―	-17.88%	-67.55%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$14.84B	8.62	2.77%	5.45%	4.51%	-62.52%

Peyto Exploration & Dev Corporate Events

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. Confirms August Dividend

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. has announced a monthly dividend of $0.11 per common share for August 2025, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders of record by August 31, 2025. This dividend declaration underscores Peyto’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and highlights its stable financial performance amidst the dynamic energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PEY) stock is a Hold with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peyto Exploration & Dev stock, see the TSE:PEY Stock Forecast page.

Peyto Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Increased Production and Debt Reduction

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with $191.3 million in funds from operations and a significant reduction in net debt. The company achieved an 8% increase in production volumes year over year, driven by its capital program, and maintained industry-leading low cash costs. Peyto’s strategic hedging and market diversification allowed it to realize a natural gas price significantly higher than the AECO benchmark, securing substantial revenue for future periods. The company’s disciplined risk management and operational efficiency resulted in a solid operating margin and profit margin, supporting shareholder dividends and further debt reduction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PEY) stock is a Hold with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peyto Exploration & Dev stock, see the TSE:PEY Stock Forecast page.

Peyto Confirms August Dividend Payment

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. has announced a monthly dividend of $0.11 per common share for July 2025, payable on August 15, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and may influence its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PEY) stock is a Hold with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peyto Exploration & Dev stock, see the TSE:PEY Stock Forecast page.

Peyto Announces Director Retirement and Confirms July Dividend

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. announced the retirement of Michael MacBean from its board of directors, acknowledging his significant contributions over 20 years, including roles as lead independent director and chair of various committees. Additionally, Peyto confirmed a monthly dividend of $0.11 per common share for June 2025, to be paid on July 15, 2025, highlighting its ongoing commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PEY) stock is a Hold with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peyto Exploration & Dev stock, see the TSE:PEY Stock Forecast page.

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. Announces Shareholder Meeting Results

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. announced the results of its annual and special meeting of shareholders, where all nominated directors were elected. Additionally, Deloitte LLP was appointed as auditors, and resolutions concerning executive compensation and the total shareholder return rights plan were approved. These decisions reflect shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction and governance, potentially impacting its operational and financial strategies moving forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PEY) stock is a Hold with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peyto Exploration & Dev stock, see the TSE:PEY Stock Forecast page.