Peyto Exploration & Dev (TSE:PEY)
TSX:PEY
Top Page
Peyto Exploration & Dev
(TSX:PEY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$32.00
▲(22.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
Score is driven primarily by strong recent financial performance (profitability and cash generation with improving leverage), supported by an established technical uptrend and attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend). The key offsets are commodity-cycle volatility, moderate free-cash-flow conversion, and earnings-call risks tied to low AECO prices and elevated government-related costs.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Robust 2025 operating cash flow and a sizable free cash flow outturn provide durable funding for capex, dividends and debt reduction. With OCF covering earnings ~2.3x, the company has recurring internal liquidity to support growth plans and manage cyclicality without overreliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Commodity cyclicality
Upstream gas exposure means earnings and cash flows remain highly sensitive to commodity price cycles. Historical swings including a 2020 loss and multi-year revenue volatility limit visibility on sustained profitability and force conservative capital planning, increasing execution risk for multi-year growth targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Robust 2025 operating cash flow and a sizable free cash flow outturn provide durable funding for capex, dividends and debt reduction. With OCF covering earnings ~2.3x, the company has recurring internal liquidity to support growth plans and manage cyclicality without overreliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Peyto Exploration & Dev (PEY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.34B
Dividend Yield5.77%
Average Volume (3M)967.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.9
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth11.52%
EPS Growth24.76%
CountryCA
Employees53
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.61
Shares Outstanding204,858,110
10 Day Avg. Volume974,472
30 Day Avg. Volume967,154
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.60
Price to Sales (P/S)4.32
P/FCF Ratio11.87
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$28.33Price Target Upside8.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.48B
Peyto Exploration & Dev Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Deep Basin of Alberta. As of December 31, 2021, it had a total proved plus probable reserves of 904 mi...
How the Company Makes Money
Peyto makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into energy markets. Its core revenue stream is the sale of natural gas, with additional revenue from natural gas liquids (such as condensate and other NGL components) recovere...
Peyto Exploration & Dev Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook with strong financial performance and production efficiency, supported by a successful hedging strategy and future growth plans. However, challenges included adverse weather impacts, low AECO prices, and high government-related costs.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Funds from operations nearly $200 million or $0.98 per diluted share, up 29% from Q3 last year, with a profit margin of 29%.
Negative Updates
Wet Weather Impact
July was unusually wet, slowing down activities and resulting in some gas shut-ins due to low prices.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Funds from operations nearly $200 million or $0.98 per diluted share, up 29% from Q3 last year, with a profit margin of 29%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In Peyto's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a strong quarter with production per share up by 5% compared to Q3 last year, and production remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter at approximately 130,000 BOEs per day. The company achieved a significant reduction in cash costs, which reached $1.21 per Mcfe ($1.13 per Mcfe without royalties), marking the lowest level since the acquisition of Repsol Canada assets in late 2023. Despite AECO 7A prices averaging a low $0.94 per GJ, Peyto's strong hedging strategy and market diversification resulted in an all-in realized natural gas price of $3.57 per Mcf, yielding a 3.3x multiple over AECO prices. Funds from operations reached nearly $200 million, up 29% year-over-year, with a profit margin of 29%. The company paid $66 million in dividends, representing $0.33 per share, with a payout ratio just under 100%. Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $126 million, influenced by projects such as the new compressor station in Sundance and the addition of a fifth rig. Peyto's liquidity remains robust, supported by an extended credit facility of $1.05 billion, and the company expects to set a new production record in November, targeting a production exit rate of 140,000 BOEs per day by December. Looking ahead to 2026, Peyto plans to invest $450 million to $500 million in capital, aiming to drill 70 to 80 net wells, potentially adding 43,000 to 48,000 BOEs per day by year-end, while maintaining a disciplined hedging strategy to navigate market volatility.Peyto Exploration & Dev Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.06B | 908.25M | 945.51M | 1.63B | 911.98M |
| Gross Profit | 395.02M | 421.22M | 424.58M | 1.07B | 575.60M |
| EBITDA | 746.56M | 849.88M | 778.10M | 872.94M | 517.66M |
| Net Income | 418.59M | 280.57M | 292.63M | 390.66M | 152.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.46B | 5.51B | 5.51B | 4.01B | 3.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.06M | 13.63M | 37.18M | 11.90M | 5.72M |
| Total Debt | 1.18B | 1.36B | 1.40B | 864.52M | 1.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.61B | 2.81B | 2.79B | 1.95B | 2.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.85B | 2.70B | 2.71B | 2.06B | 1.77B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 384.13M | 215.49M | 233.84M | 304.92M | 92.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 857.48M | 672.36M | 644.87M | 811.78M | 457.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -452.45M | -432.24M | -1.15B | -516.91M | -351.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -367.60M | -263.66M | 527.27M | -288.68M | -110.03M |
Peyto Exploration & Dev Technical Analysis
Neutral
26.09
Price Trends
26.32
Negative
24.18
Positive
21.36
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
43.31
Neutral
12.97
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PEY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.46, below the 50-day MA of 26.32, and above the 200-day MA of 21.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:PEY.
Peyto Exploration & Dev Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$5.28B | 14.32 | 27.19% | ― | 3.04% | 115.77% | |
78 Outperform | C$5.34B | 10.89 | 15.30% | 5.77% | 11.52% | 24.76% | |
73 Outperform | C$4.17B | 2.70 | 48.07% | 2.84% | -32.36% | 282.99% | |
68 Neutral | C$5.61B | -110.02 | -1.84% | 1.91% | -1.36% | -149.45% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$4.60B | -1.00 | -16.22% | 2.07% | -8.89% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:PEY
Peyto Exploration & Dev
26.09
11.73
81.65%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
6.22
4.19
206.55%
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
11.00
6.79
161.28%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
28.87
14.15
96.13%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
11.55
8.27
252.46%
Peyto Exploration & Dev Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Peyto Boosts Reserves, Cuts Debt and Sets $450–$500 Million 2026 Capital Plan
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Peyto reported strong 2025 reserves additions, adding 504 BCFe of new proved developed producing reserves at its lowest finding, development and acquisition cost in 23 years, while growing reserves across all categories and achieving record Decemb...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Peyto Confirms March Payout for February Monthly Dividend
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Peyto Exploration Development Corp. has confirmed it will pay a monthly dividend of $0.11 per common share for February 2026, with the payout scheduled for March 13, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 28. The company noted that these ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Peyto Confirms $0.11 Monthly Dividend for January 2026
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
Peyto Exploration Development Corp. has confirmed a monthly dividend of $0.11 per common share for January 2026, payable on February 13, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 31, 2026. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend for ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Peyto Extends Debt Maturities With New $100 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
Peyto Exploration Development Corp. has refinanced its debt by issuing $100 million in senior secured notes at a 5.03% coupon, maturing in 2033, through a private placement that ranks pari passu with its existing credit facilities and note agreem...
Dividends
Peyto Exploration & Development Confirms December Dividend
Positive
Dec 15, 2025
Peyto Exploration Development Corp. announced a monthly dividend of $0.11 per common share for December 2025, payable on January 15, 2026. This announcement reinforces Peyto’s commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and highligh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.