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Supremex
(TSX:SXP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$4.00
▲(9.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is led by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings update showing revenue/EBITDA momentum and identifiable cost-synergy upside. These positives are tempered by only mid-level financial statement strength (thin margins, moderate leverage, and weaker recent cash conversion) and a technical picture that is constructive but only lightly confirmed due to missing momentum indicators.
Positive Factors
Packaging segment strength
Packaging’s double-digit revenue growth and a 15.4% adjusted EBITDA margin reflect durable structural gains: e-commerce demand, folding-carton share wins and the Trans-Graphique acquisition. This diversifies revenue and supports higher, more stable margins over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Thin profitability margins
Margins remain thin versus historical peaks, leaving limited buffer against input-cost shocks (notably paper) or pricing pressure. Sustained low margins constrain reinvestment, reduce resilience to demand swings, and require consistent efficiency or pricing actions to restore stronger returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Packaging segment strength
Packaging’s double-digit revenue growth and a 15.4% adjusted EBITDA margin reflect durable structural gains: e-commerce demand, folding-carton share wins and the Trans-Graphique acquisition. This diversifies revenue and supports higher, more stable margins over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Supremex (SXP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$89.78M
Dividend Yield18.92%
Average Volume (3M)16.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth3.78%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding24,331,144
10 Day Avg. Volume20,445
30 Day Avg. Volume16,568
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.83
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio4.71
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$279.00M
Supremex Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Supremex Inc. specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of envelopes, paper packaging solutions, and various specialty products. They cater to a broad clientele, encompassing corporations, resellers, government bodies, small and medium-siz...
How the Company Makes Money
Supremex makes money primarily by selling physical products to business and institutional customers, with revenue broadly generated from two operating segments. (1) Envelope segment: The company generates sales by manufacturing and distributing en...
Supremex Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented clear operational progress: revenue growth, rising adjusted EBITDA and sequential margin expansion across both segments, plus strategic tuck-in M&A and tangible cost-savings actions. These positives are tempered by near-term cash flow weakness, a modest decline in adjusted net earnings, slight pricing pressure (ASP down ~0.9%) and working-capital-driven increases in net debt. Management's tone was cautiously optimistic, emphasizing continued productivity gains, synergies from consolidations and a disciplined M&A appetite while acknowledging temporary cash and transition headwinds.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Q1 revenue of $74.8M, up 6.6% year-over-year (from $70.2M) and showing sequential improvement versus Q4 2025.
Negative Updates
Operating and Free Cash Flow Weakness
Net cash from operating activities was negative $0.8M versus positive $7.0M a year ago; free cash flow was negative $1.8M vs positive $6.8M last year, driven mainly by working capital requirements and a tax settlement related to a prior sale-leaseback.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Q1 revenue of $74.8M, up 6.6% year-over-year (from $70.2M) and showing sequential improvement versus Q4 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance was cautious but constructive: management expects operating conditions to improve gradually through 2026 and to continue driving revenue and earnings momentum from the platform they’ve built (Q1 revenue $74.8M, +6.6% y/y; adjusted EBITDA $9.9M, 13.2% of revenue). Near‑term margin upside is expected from realized synergies — notably >$1.5M of annualized run‑rate savings from the Indianapolis Envelope consolidation (largely linear after exiting the site by end‑June) and >$500k from label consolidations — supporting further expansion of the Packaging segment (Q1 packaging adj. EBITDA margin 15.4%, its highest in three years) and Envelope (Q1 volume +6%, revenue $50.9M, ASP down 0.9%). Financial flexibility remains strong (net debt $4.1M; net debt/adjusted EBITDA 0.13x), the company will continue tuck‑in M&A (four small acquisitions in the last 10 months) while returning capital via a $0.05 quarterly dividend and buybacks (57k shares for $0.2M in Q1), and management expects working‑capital intensity to stay roughly flat or decline slightly as packaging grows.Supremex Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 284.99M | 274.78M | 281.04M | 302.19M | 272.47M | 226.43M |
| Gross Profit | 112.65M | 52.67M | 79.45M | 87.22M | 75.10M | 53.11M |
| EBITDA | 36.87M | 34.91M | 15.91M | 48.28M | 55.11M | 36.91M |
| Net Income | 12.16M | 12.02M | -11.74M | 17.33M | 28.44M | 15.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 306.81M | 273.13M | 236.97M | 263.76M | 260.56M | 206.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.54M | 3.09M | 1.79M | 1.07M | 1.93M | 6.36M |
| Total Debt | 149.30M | 200.79M | 87.92M | 89.25M | 88.10M | 67.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 197.87M | 164.92M | 122.00M | 139.22M | 136.24M | 108.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 108.93M | 108.21M | 114.97M | 134.72M | 124.32M | 97.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.92M | 19.13M | 30.36M | 37.64M | 23.82M | 26.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.57M | 20.65M | 32.09M | 43.90M | 26.91M | 30.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.31M | 42.33M | -2.92M | -35.50M | -31.72M | -6.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.20M | -62.44M | -27.36M | -9.59M | -48.85K | -20.02M |
Supremex Technical Analysis
Positive
3.65
Price Trends
3.66
Positive
3.63
Positive
3.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
53.69
Neutral
66.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SXP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.67, below the 50-day MA of 3.66, and above the 200-day MA of 3.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SXP.
Supremex Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$2.60B | 13.97 | 10.41% | 0.44% | 0.26% | 1.01% | |
68 Neutral | C$89.78M | 7.46 | 11.20% | 19.18% | 3.78% | ― | |
64 Neutral | C$1.76B | 13.79 | 7.24% | 3.66% | 0.55% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | C$467.84M | 1.35 | 22.24% | 383.18% | -29.78% | 88.96% | |
58 Neutral | C$467.84M | 1.35 | 22.24% | 328.00% | -29.78% | 88.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:SXP
Supremex
3.70
0.08
2.18%
TSE:TCL.A
Transcontinental
5.45
2.69
97.11%
TSE:TCL.B
Transcontinental Inc. Class B
6.73
3.03
81.90%
TSE:WPK
Winpak
44.51
3.15
7.62%
TSE:CAS
Cascades
17.06
7.51
78.60%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.