Supremex Inc. (TSE:SXP)
TSX:SXP
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Supremex
(TSX:SXP)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$4.00
▲(13.31% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is primarily supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and constructive earnings-call commentary pointing to improving momentum and strong cash generation. Offsetting these positives are uneven financial performance (notably earnings volatility and a leverage risk noted in the financial statements) and weak-to-neutral technical momentum signals.
Positive Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow across the trailing period provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and M&A. Strong FCF cushions the business against cyclical volume swings, supports reinvestment in packaging capacity, and underpins multi‑month strategic flexibility.
Negative Factors
Balance sheet leverage flagged as elevated in 2025
The documented step‑up in debt and higher leverage in 2025 (per the balance‑sheet assessment) signals potential strain on financial flexibility if cash flows deteriorate. Elevated leverage can limit ability to pursue larger M&A or absorb shocks, creating a durable risk to strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow across the trailing period provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and M&A. Strong FCF cushions the business against cyclical volume swings, supports reinvestment in packaging capacity, and underpins multi‑month strategic flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Supremex (SXP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$89.75M
Dividend Yield19.66%
Average Volume (3M)16.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-4.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding24,388,771
10 Day Avg. Volume20,445
30 Day Avg. Volume16,568
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.83
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio4.71
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$263.50M
Supremex Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Supremex (SXP) is a leading manufacturer and provider of custom packaging solutions, primarily serving the North American market. The company operates in the packaging and printing sectors, specializing in the production of a diverse range of prod...
How the Company Makes Money
Supremex generates revenue through the sale of its packaging products, which includes a variety of envelopes, mailers, and custom packaging solutions. The company's primary revenue stream comes from direct sales to businesses in need of packaging ...
Supremex Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive and improving operational and financial picture: notable top-line growth (notably +18.3% in packaging), sequential margin recovery, strong cash generation and an almost net-zero debt position provide the company with flexibility to pursue accretive tuck-in M&A and return capital to shareholders. Offsetting factors include YoY profitability declines largely driven by lower selling prices, a material noncash FX revaluation, legacy disruption from Canada Post and the loss of volume from a single large U.S. client; management indicated these headwinds are being resolved and highlighted near-term restructuring costs ($1M–$2M) tied to network rationalization. On balance, the positives around cash flow, deleveraging, acquisitions and sequential improvement were emphasized as outweighing the transitory and accounting-related negatives.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth in Q4 and FY Momentum
Q4 revenue of $72.9M, up 5.6% year-over-year; packaging & specialty revenue rose 18.3% YoY to $24.0M. Envelope revenue held steady at $48.9M and was up sequentially from Q3 ($45.1M).
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Profitability Decline
Adjusted EBITDA declined YoY to $9.1M (12.5% of sales) from $12.9M (18.7%) a year earlier; adjusted net earnings fell to $1.5M ($0.06/share) in Q4 from $5.2M ($0.20/share) a year ago.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth in Q4 and FY Momentum
Q4 revenue of $72.9M, up 5.6% year-over-year; packaging & specialty revenue rose 18.3% YoY to $24.0M. Envelope revenue held steady at $48.9M and was up sequentially from Q3 ($45.1M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said Q1 2026 is “off to a good/solid start” and expects the late‑2025 momentum to continue as the Canada Post disruptions are lapped and the large U.S. customer headwind eases, with continued strength in folding cartons and e‑commerce packaging and further U.S. envelope share gains; they remain focused on tuck‑in and larger packaging M&A. They emphasized strong financial flexibility after year‑end net debt of $1.0M (net debt/adjusted EBITDA 0.03x), annual free cash flow of $73.2M (excluding the $53M sale‑leaseback produces a TTM free cash flow yield of ~22%), ongoing buybacks (~216k shares for ~$0.8M year‑to‑date) and a quarterly dividend of $0.05/share. Near‑term items to note: a Q1 non‑recurring provision of $1–2M related to the Indianapolis plant closure, and deal specifics such as the Elite Envelope tuck‑in (~US$5M trailing revenue, low double‑digit EBITDA margin, <1‑year payback). For context, Q4 benchmarks were total revenue $72.9M (+5.6% YoY), envelope revenue $48.9M (volume +5.3%, envelope adj. EBITDA margin ~15.9%), packaging revenue $24.0M (+18.3%, packaging adj. EBITDA ~13.2% and ~16% excl. commercial print), and consolidated adjusted EBITDA $9.1M (12.5% of sales).Supremex Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 274.78M | 281.04M | 302.19M | 272.47M | 226.43M |
| Gross Profit | 52.67M | 79.45M | 87.22M | 75.10M | 53.11M |
| EBITDA | 29.61M | 15.91M | 48.28M | 55.11M | 36.91M |
| Net Income | 12.02M | -11.74M | 17.33M | 28.44M | 15.75M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 273.13M | 236.97M | 263.76M | 260.56M | 206.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.09M | 1.79M | 1.07M | 1.93M | 6.36M |
| Total Debt | 200.79M | 87.92M | 89.25M | 88.10M | 67.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 164.92M | 122.00M | 139.22M | 136.24M | 108.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 108.21M | 114.97M | 134.72M | 124.32M | 97.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.13M | 30.36M | 37.64M | 23.82M | 26.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.65M | 32.09M | 43.90M | 26.91M | 30.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 42.33M | -2.92M | -35.50M | -31.72M | -6.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -62.44M | -27.36M | -9.59M | -48.85K | -20.02M |
Supremex Technical Analysis
Positive
3.53
Price Trends
3.66
Positive
3.62
Positive
3.61
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
55.35
Neutral
59.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SXP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.60, below the 50-day MA of 3.66, and below the 200-day MA of 3.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SXP.
Supremex Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$2.65B | 14.22 | 10.69% | 7.11% | 3.19% | -0.26% | |
68 Neutral | C$456.13M | 16.26 | 7.69% | 8.22% | -2.45% | 44.20% | |
65 Neutral | C$89.75M | 7.49 | 10.80% | 19.66% | -4.69% | ― | |
64 Neutral | C$456.13M | 16.26 | 7.69% | 8.32% | -2.45% | 44.20% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | C$1.18B | 18.01 | 1.16% | 3.90% | 3.50% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:SXP
Supremex
3.68
0.35
10.54%
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Supremex Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Supremex Swings to Profit in 2025 as Packaging Growth and Deleveraging Offset Margin Pressure
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Supremex reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $72.9 million, up 5.6% year over year, driven by an 18.3% rise in Packaging Specialty Products, while envelope sales were flat and net income fell to $1.3 million amid margin compression. The compa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.