Supremex (SXP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$88.53M
• Dividend Yield: 19.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -4.69%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 24,388,771
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,445
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,568
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$263.50M

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: C$4.00 ▲(13.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is primarily supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and constructive earnings-call commentary pointing to improving momentum and strong cash generation. Offsetting these positives are uneven financial performance (notably earnings volatility and a leverage risk noted in the financial statements) and weak-to-neutral technical momentum signals.

Positive Factors

Consistent free cash flow generation

Sustained, sizable free cash flow across the trailing period provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and M&A. Strong FCF cushions the business against cyclical volume swings, supports reinvestment in packaging capacity, and underpins multi‑month strategic flexibility.

Very low net leverage post‑year end

A near‑zero net debt position materially increases financial flexibility, lowering refinancing and covenant risk and enabling accretive tuck‑in acquisitions or shareholder returns without stressing liquidity. This balance sheet strength supports durable capital allocation choices over the next several quarters.

Packaging segment growth and improving margins

Rapid growth in folding cartons and e‑commerce packaging reflects structural demand shifts and higher value‑add content. Improving packaging margins and new business wins indicate scalable capacity and stronger mix, supporting more predictable, higher‑margin revenues over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Balance sheet leverage flagged as elevated in 2025

The documented step‑up in debt and higher leverage in 2025 (per the balance‑sheet assessment) signals potential strain on financial flexibility if cash flows deteriorate. Elevated leverage can limit ability to pursue larger M&A or absorb shocks, creating a durable risk to strategic optionality.

Volatile profitability and inconsistent growth

Earnings and margin swings across recent years indicate the company’s profitability is sensitive to price, mix and cost swings. This makes forecasting and capital planning harder and suggests earnings power is less stable, a structural headwind to sustained margin expansion over coming quarters.

Customer concentration and external logistics exposure

Dependence on a large direct‑mail client and exposure to postal/logistics disruptions create persistent revenue variability and pricing pressure. These structural demand and service risks can mute growth visibility and require ongoing commercial diversification and margin management.

Supremex Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Supremex (SXP) is a leading manufacturer and provider of custom packaging solutions, primarily serving the North American market. The company operates in the packaging and printing sectors, specializing in the production of a diverse range of products including envelopes, mailers, and specialty packaging. With a focus on innovation and sustainability, Supremex offers high-quality products tailored to meet the unique needs of its clients across various industries such as e-commerce, retail, and direct mail marketing.

How the Company Makes Money

Supremex generates revenue through the sale of its packaging products, which includes a variety of envelopes, mailers, and custom packaging solutions. The company's primary revenue stream comes from direct sales to businesses in need of packaging solutions, particularly in the e-commerce and retail sectors. Additionally, Supremex may benefit from long-term contracts with key clients, providing a stable income source. The company places a strong emphasis on sustainable packaging options, which can attract environmentally conscious customers and open up new market segments. Strategic partnerships with logistics and shipping companies can also enhance their distribution capabilities, contributing to increased sales and market reach.

Supremex Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a key support (consistently positive free cash flow with a strong improvement in 2025), but the profile is held back by volatile profitability (loss in 2024 with a partial rebound in 2025) and an elevated leverage risk flag in 2025 per the balance-sheet assessment.

Income Statement

Revenue is broadly stable over time, but growth has been inconsistent (down in 2024, modestly higher in 2025). Profitability has been volatile: strong margins in 2022–2023, a sharp loss in 2024 (negative net and operating margins), and a return to profitability in 2025. The 2025 rebound is a positive signal, but margins remain well below the 2022–2023 peak and the earnings profile looks less predictable than earlier years.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially in 2025, with debt rising sharply and debt-to-equity moving to elevated levels versus prior years (which were moderate). Equity has not grown meaningfully over the period, and the higher debt load reduces financial flexibility. While the company had a healthier leverage profile in 2020–2024, the 2025 step-up in debt is a key balance-sheet risk to monitor.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: free cash flow is consistently positive across all years and improved strongly in 2025 versus 2024. Free cash flow tracks net income reasonably well in the profitable years, supporting earnings quality. The main weakness is variability in cash conversion, with operating cash flow coverage notably weaker in 2025 versus 2024, suggesting working-capital or timing headwinds even as reported profitability improved.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	274.78M	281.04M	302.19M	272.47M	226.43M
Gross Profit	52.67M	79.45M	87.22M	75.10M	53.11M
EBITDA	29.61M	15.91M	48.28M	55.11M	36.91M
Net Income	12.02M	-11.74M	17.33M	28.44M	15.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	273.13M	236.97M	263.76M	260.56M	206.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.09M	1.79M	1.07M	1.93M	6.36M
Total Debt	200.79M	87.92M	89.25M	88.10M	67.60M
Total Liabilities	164.92M	122.00M	139.22M	136.24M	108.97M
Stockholders Equity	108.21M	114.97M	134.72M	124.32M	97.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	19.13M	30.36M	37.64M	23.82M	26.09M
Operating Cash Flow	20.65M	32.09M	43.90M	26.91M	30.00M
Investing Cash Flow	42.33M	-2.92M	-35.50M	-31.72M	-6.61M
Financing Cash Flow	-62.44M	-27.36M	-9.59M	-48.85K	-20.02M

Supremex Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SXP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.70, below the 50-day MA of 3.72, and below the 200-day MA of 3.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SXP.

Supremex Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WPK	77 Outperform	C$2.82B	15.34	10.45%	7.11%	3.19%	-0.26%
TCL.A	74 Outperform	C$1.96B	11.40	8.95%	8.32%	-2.45%	44.20%
TCL.B	70 Neutral	C$1.96B	11.33	8.95%	8.22%	-2.45%	44.20%
SXP	65 Neutral	C$88.53M	7.55	15.15%	19.66%	-4.69%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CAS	53 Neutral	C$1.23B	17.39	1.16%	3.90%	3.50%	―

Supremex Corporate Events

Supremex Swings to Profit in 2025 as Packaging Growth and Deleveraging Offset Margin Pressure

Supremex reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $72.9 million, up 5.6% year over year, driven by an 18.3% rise in Packaging & Specialty Products, while envelope sales were flat and net income fell to $1.3 million amid margin compression. The company completed the acquisition of Elite Envelope in Massachusetts, extended its credit facility to 2028 and declared a quarterly dividend, underscoring balance sheet strength after ending the year essentially debt free.

For full-year 2025, revenue slipped to $274.8 million, but Supremex swung to a $12.0 million profit from an $11.7 million loss in 2024, supported by improved operating earnings and strong free cash flow of $73.2 million. The company advanced its consolidation strategy with acquisitions in folding carton and envelope assets, a $53.0 million sale-leaseback of two properties, a special dividend and share buybacks, bolstering its financial flexibility and market positioning despite lower adjusted EBITDA margins.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SXP) stock is a Hold with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Supremex stock, see the TSE:SXP Stock Forecast page.