Transcontinental (TSE:TCL.A)
TSX:TCL.A
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Transcontinental
(TSX:TCL.A)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(8.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
Overall score reflects pressured top-line trends and recent margin compression despite improving leverage and solid free cash flow. Technicals show strong trend but appear overextended (very high RSI), while valuation is helped by a very high dividend yield and moderate P/E. Earnings call was moderately positive on stable EBITDA guidance, planned debt reduction, and a sizable shareholder distribution, tempered by weaker recent quarter performance and softer book printing outlook.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained free cash flow (~$236M TTM) and operating cash flow (~$303M TTM) provide durable internal funding for capex, working capital and debt reduction. Strong cash conversion supports strategic flexibility, helps fund shareholder distributions and M&A without immediate reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline
A persistent top-line contraction (TTM revenue down ~13.8%) indicates structural demand weakness in core segments and lost scale. Reduced revenue limits operating leverage, compresses margins and constrains reinvestment capacity, making medium-term growth and margin recovery more challenging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained free cash flow (~$236M TTM) and operating cash flow (~$303M TTM) provide durable internal funding for capex, working capital and debt reduction. Strong cash conversion supports strategic flexibility, helps fund shareholder distributions and M&A without immediate reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Transcontinental (TCL.A) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$475.65M
Dividend Yield8.32%
Average Volume (3M)118.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.3
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth-2.45%
EPS Growth44.20%
CountryCA
Employees7,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Business Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding74,112,650
10 Day Avg. Volume111,798
30 Day Avg. Volume118,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio6.72
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$11.45Price Target Upside107.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.15B
Transcontinental Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Transcontinental Inc. engages in the flexible packaging business in Canada, the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through Packaging, Printing, and Media sectors. The Packaging sector engages ...
How the Company Makes Money
Transcontinental makes money primarily by selling packaging and printing products and related services to business customers. Its largest revenue stream is flexible packaging, where it generates sales by manufacturing and converting plastic-based ...
Transcontinental Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 10, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there was notable growth in safety metrics and adjusted net earnings, challenges such as decreased Q4 revenues and the impact of the Canada Post labor conflict were significant. The sale of the packaging sector and strategic acquisitions offer potential for future growth.Positive Updates
Improvement in Safety Metrics
The company achieved a 39% reduction in accidents year-over-year, following a 9% reduction between 2024 and 2023.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Fourth Quarter Revenue
Q4 revenues decreased by 2.3% to $732.4 million due to lower retail services and printing volumes and the sale of industrial packaging operations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improvement in Safety Metrics
The company achieved a 39% reduction in accidents year-over-year, following a 9% reduction between 2024 and 2023.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the TC Transcontinental Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics. The company reported a 10.7% year-over-year increase in net earnings per share for fiscal 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $732.4 million, reflecting a 2.3% decrease from the previous year, attributed to lower volumes in the retail services and printing sector and the sale of industrial packaging operations. Despite this, the packaging sector showed organic revenue growth of 2.8% and a 3.3% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $67.9 million. For fiscal 2026, TC Transcontinental expects stable adjusted EBITDA compared to 2025, with anticipated growth in the ISM activities and media business. The company plans to use proceeds from the sale of its packaging business for a distribution of approximately $20 per share to shareholders, alongside a reduction in net debt, targeting a pro forma net debt ratio of about 1.7x post-transaction. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be around $60 million, and cash taxes are expected to be approximately $30 million. Overall, the company remains focused on aligning corporate costs with business size and anticipates a full impact of cost reductions by fiscal 2027.Transcontinental Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.36B | 2.74B | 2.81B | 2.94B | 2.96B | 2.64B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07B | 1.37B | 1.38B | 1.36B | 1.32B | 1.25B |
| EBITDA | 362.30M | 474.50M | 416.30M | 391.70M | 447.50M | 450.00M |
| Net Income | 145.10M | 171.00M | 121.30M | 85.80M | 141.20M | 130.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 3.35B | 3.64B | 3.70B | 3.80B | 3.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.00M | 47.00M | 185.20M | 137.00M | 45.70M | 231.10M |
| Total Debt | 752.20M | 787.40M | 989.00M | 1.06B | 1.15B | 1.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.37B | 1.43B | 1.73B | 1.79B | 1.92B | 1.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.91B | 1.91B | 1.90B | 1.88B | 1.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 236.10M | 245.60M | 275.30M | 277.50M | 69.00M | 168.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 302.60M | 314.90M | 370.40M | 422.80M | 186.10M | 283.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -110.50M | 11.00M | -112.60M | -165.20M | -257.40M | -181.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -422.90M | -470.40M | -214.70M | -166.80M | -116.20M | -117.80M |
Transcontinental Technical Analysis
Positive
5.52
Price Trends
3.72
Positive
3.42
Positive
3.11
Positive
Market Momentum
0.57
Negative
84.98
Negative
61.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TCL.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.27, above the 50-day MA of 3.72, and above the 200-day MA of 3.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TCL.A.
Transcontinental Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$845.51M | 30.99 | 6.36% | 1.98% | 3.69% | 92.38% | |
64 Neutral | C$475.65M | 16.26 | 7.69% | 8.32% | -2.45% | 44.20% | |
64 Neutral | C$740.21M | 17.94 | 14.45% | 3.02% | -0.73% | 221.74% | |
64 Neutral | C$448.99M | 23.08 | 7.09% | 3.43% | 26.29% | -6.47% | |
62 Neutral | C$87.97M | -35.59 | 26.87% | 5.99% | -7.01% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:TCL.A
Transcontinental
5.52
3.20
138.24%
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Calian Group
73.64
32.31
78.17%
TSE:DCM
Data Commun Management
1.60
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2.56%
TSE:DXT
Dexterra Group
11.86
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67.99%
TSE:KBL
K-Bro Linen
34.77
2.55
7.91%
Transcontinental Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
TC Transcontinental Buys PDI Group to Bolster In-Store Marketing Push
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
TC Transcontinental has acquired Quebec-based PDI Group, a producer of large-format signage, displays, commercial printing and specialized distribution, in a move that deepens its capabilities in in-store marketing and expands its footprint in the...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Transcontinental Shareholders Back Board, By‑laws and Capital Return After Packaging Sale
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Transcontinental Inc. reported that all director nominees were elected and all management resolutions passed at its annual and special shareholder meeting, reflecting strong investor support for the board and executive pay. Shareholders also recon...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsM&A Transactions
TC Transcontinental to Return $20 per Share After Sale of Packaging Unit
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
TC Transcontinental’s board has authorized a special cash distribution of $20 per Class A Subordinate Voting Share and Class B Share following the completion of the sale of its Packaging Sector to ProAmpac Holdings. The payout will be execut...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Transcontinental pivots from packaging as Q1 profit dips and new CEO named
Negative
Mar 10, 2026
Transcontinental reported first-quarter 2026 revenues of $263.5 million, up 2.3% year over year, driven mainly by recent acquisitions and favourable exchange rates, but operating earnings fell sharply and the company posted a small net loss from c...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
TC Transcontinental Names New CEO as It Enters Post-Packaging Era
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
TC Transcontinental has appointed long-time executive Sam Bendavid as chief executive officer, effective April 6, 2026, following the sale of its Packaging business and as part of a succession plan to ensure continuity and growth. Bendavid, who ha...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TC Transcontinental Clears Antitrust Hurdles for Sale of Packaging Business to ProAmpac
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026
TC Transcontinental said regulatory waiting periods under Canada’s Competition Act and the U.S. Hart-Scott-Rodino Act have expired or been terminated for the planned sale of its Packaging Sector to ProAmpac Holdings Inc. The company now expe...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
TC Transcontinental Shareholders Overwhelmingly Back Sale of Packaging Business to ProAmpac
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
Shareholders of TC Transcontinental have overwhelmingly approved the sale of the company’s Packaging business to ProAmpac Holdings, with 99.98% of votes cast in favour at a special meeting, far above the required two‑thirds threshold. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.