Calian Group (CGY) AI Stock Analysis

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Calian Group

(TSX:CGY)

Select Model

Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:61Neutral

Price Target:

C$53.00

▼(-2.05% Downside)

Calian Group's strong revenue growth and cash flow generation are significant positives, supported by a robust backlog and strategic investments in the defense sector. However, declining profitability, increased leverage, and challenges in the ITCS segment weigh on the overall score. The negative P/E ratio and neutral technical indicators further temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The robust top-line expansion indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term growth potential.

Defense Sector Expansion

The defense sector's significant growth enhances Calian's market position and revenue stability, leveraging increased demand in Canada and Europe.

Backlog Growth

A growing backlog indicates strong future revenue streams and business sustainability, providing a buffer against market fluctuations.

Negative Factors

Profitability Decline

Declining profitability suggests challenges in cost management, which could impact long-term financial health and operational efficiency.

ITCS Segment Challenges

The downturn in the ITCS segment indicates potential structural issues, affecting overall company performance and necessitating strategic adjustments.

Increased Leverage

Higher leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Calian Group (CGY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$575.68M

Dividend Yield2.07%

Average Volume (3M)18.08K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.89

Revenue Growth3.69%

EPS Growth92.38%

CountryCA

Employees4,000

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustrySpecialty Business Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.00

Shares Outstanding11,350,168

10 Day Avg. Volume19,482

30 Day Avg. Volume18,078

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.17

Price to Book (P/B)1.66

Price to Sales (P/S)0.73

P/FCF Ratio7.21

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$64.00

Price Target Upside18.28% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Calian Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCalian Group Ltd. (CGY) is a Canadian diversified company that provides a wide range of services in multiple sectors, including healthcare, information technology, engineering, and training. The company operates through several divisions, delivering innovative solutions to government and commercial clients. Calian's core products and services include healthcare staffing solutions, IT and cybersecurity services, engineering and technical support, and training programs, addressing the needs of various industries and enhancing operational efficiencies.

How the Company Makes MoneyCalian generates revenue through a diverse array of streams. Primarily, the company earns income from its professional services divisions, which include healthcare staffing and IT support services. The healthcare division provides personnel to hospitals and clinics, while the IT sector offers cybersecurity and technology solutions to both public and private entities. Additionally, Calian's engineering and training services contribute significantly to its revenue, with contracts often awarded by government agencies and large corporations. Strategic partnerships with both public sector clients and private industry players also enhance its market reach and profitability. The company's ability to secure long-term contracts and maintain a robust pipeline of projects is crucial for sustaining its earnings.

Calian Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 26, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Calian Group's earnings call highlighted record revenue and growth, driven by strong performance in the defense sector and strategic acquisitions. However, challenges in the ITCS segment and uncertainties regarding defense investment timing were noted. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of double-digit growth in FY 2026.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue and Growth

Calian Group delivered record results with the highest revenue quarter in its 43-year history and the second highest adjusted EBITDA. Revenues increased by 12% to $203 million in Q4, with a return to positive organic growth. The fiscal year 2025 revenues were up 4% to $774 million, a new record for the company.

Defense Solutions Expansion

Defense Solutions continues to lead with double-digit growth and now represents 50% of consolidated revenues. Revenues grew 17% year-over-year, driven by increased demand across Canada, the U.K., and Europe. Significant contract wins include agreements with NATO and Allied countries, and a $250 million expansion to the health services contract with Canadian Armed Forces.

Global Presence and Strategic Acquisitions

48% of Q4 revenues were generated outside Canada, marking the highest quarter in terms of international revenue. Strategic acquisitions like AMS and InField Scientific have strengthened Calian's capabilities, particularly in defense and health care.

Strong Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

Calian generated $45 million in cash flow from operations and maintained working capital efficiency below 10%. The company returned value to shareholders with $13 million in dividends and $26 million in share buybacks, representing approximately 5% of shares outstanding.

Positive Outlook and Strategic Direction

For fiscal year 2026, Calian expects double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The company plans to focus on high-growth vertical markets like defense and space, streamline operations, and invest with discipline.

Negative Updates

ITCS Segment Underperformance

The ITCS segment saw revenues decline by 4%, impacting the overall adjusted EBITDA margin, which stood at 11.9%, down from 13.1% last year. Material actions were taken in Q4 to restore performance, but their impact was limited this period.

Challenges in Organic Growth

Organic growth for the fiscal year was negative 2%, primarily due to defense cuts in the first half, delays in major space programs, and uncertainty surrounding tariffs at the beginning of the year.

Uncertain Timing of Defense Investments

While the Canadian federal budget is seen as positive for Calian, the timing of contract awards remains uncertain, which could impact future revenue and growth projections.

Company Guidance

During the Calian Group's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics and guidance for future growth were discussed. The company reported its highest revenue quarter in its 43-year history, with Q4 revenues increasing by 12% to $203 million. The Defense Solutions segment was highlighted as a major growth driver, achieving double-digit growth and representing 50% of consolidated revenues. Year-end signings totaled $1 billion, a 48% increase over the previous year. The backlog reached $1.4 billion, with $1 billion attributed to the defense sector. For fiscal year 2026, Calian anticipates double-digit revenue growth, driven by strategic acquisitions and organic growth, with an aim to expand adjusted EBITDA as the company focuses on high-growth verticals, particularly in defense and space. The company's financial flexibility is supported by a $350 million revolving credit facility, enabling continued investment in M&A and strategic initiatives.

Calian Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Calian Group demonstrates strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, which are positive indicators of business expansion and operational efficiency. However, declining profitability margins and increased leverage pose potential risks. The company needs to focus on improving cost management and profitability to enhance overall financial health.

Income Statement

Positive

Calian Group shows a strong revenue growth trajectory with a TTM growth rate of 96.9%, indicating robust top-line expansion. However, profitability metrics such as net profit margin and EBIT margin have declined significantly, with a negative net profit margin in the TTM period. This suggests challenges in cost management or increased expenses impacting the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased over time, indicating higher leverage, but it remains at a manageable level. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. However, the negative return on equity in the TTM period is concerning, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns on shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Positive

Calian Group's cash flow metrics are strong, with a significant increase in free cash flow growth and a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating good cash generation relative to reported earnings, despite the net income loss in the TTM period.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	752.10M	746.61M	658.58M	582.17M	518.40M	432.32M
Gross Profit	254.22M	254.01M	204.21M	169.23M	126.74M	89.16M
EBITDA	50.42M	70.78M	59.27M	56.06M	37.59M	38.79M
Net Income	-659.00K	11.18M	18.89M	13.60M	11.15M	20.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	723.59M	707.92M	585.72M	547.16M	457.97M	331.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	56.83M	51.79M	33.73M	42.65M	78.61M	24.23M
Total Debt	184.68M	129.19M	74.76M	26.54M	17.48M	19.59M
Total Liabilities	422.33M	381.17M	257.35M	241.98M	165.61M	130.65M
Stockholders Equity	301.25M	326.75M	328.37M	305.19M	292.36M	200.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	48.67M	75.42M	48.34M	35.82M	38.69M	-8.55M
Operating Cash Flow	58.45M	87.22M	56.77M	43.14M	46.54M	-2.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-48.86M	-99.67M	-79.62M	-72.89M	-56.61M	-35.19M
Financing Cash Flow	2.43M	30.50M	13.94M	-6.21M	64.44M	45.04M

Calian Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price54.11

Price Trends

50DMA

50.46

Positive

100DMA

50.43

Positive

200DMA

47.09

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.09

Negative

RSI

62.16

Neutral

STOCH

86.86

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.19, above the 50-day MA of 50.46, and above the 200-day MA of 47.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CGY.

Calian Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DXT	72 Outperform	C$640.22M	18.64	14.38%	3.02%	-0.73%	221.74%
KBL	69 Neutral	C$470.40M	20.88	8.30%	3.43%	26.29%	-6.47%
TCL.B	68 Neutral	C$1.70B	9.71	9.36%	9.25%	-2.90%	57.43%
GDI	67 Neutral	C$700.56M	20.01	8.55%	―	-2.83%	179.03%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CGY	61 Neutral	C$575.68M	-934.07	6.36%	2.07%	3.69%	92.38%
DCM	56 Neutral	C$73.01M	10.65	26.87%	4.26%	-7.01%	―

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:CGY

Calian Group

54.11

4.88

9.91%

TSE:DCM

Data Commun Management

1.76

0.06

3.53%

TSE:GDI

GDI Integrated

28.10

-7.71

-21.53%

TSE:DXT

Dexterra Group

11.99

4.91

69.35%

TSE:KBL

K-Bro Linen

34.97

-2.49

-6.65%

TSE:TCL.B

Transcontinental Inc. Class B

20.47

6.02

41.66%

Calian Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy

Calian Group Enhances Ottawa Airport’s Cybersecurity with New SOC Contract

Positive

Oct 15, 2025

Calian Group Ltd. has secured a three-year contract with the Ottawa International Airport Authority to implement and manage a cyber-focused Security Operations Centre (SOC). This initiative is part of the airport’s strategy to enhance its cybersecurity capabilities, reflecting a forward-thinking approach to protecting both physical and virtual environments. The partnership builds on a successful IT modernization project and represents a shift towards leveraging advanced systems to support future growth. Calian’s tailored, expert-driven SOC solutions are designed to provide seamless protection, enabling clients to focus on their core operations with confidence in their security posture.