Cascades (TSE:CAS)
TSX:CAS
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Cascades
(TSX:CAS)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$11.50
▲(5.80% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and stronger free cash flow trends, tempered by elevated leverage and a sharp TTM revenue decline. Valuation is a meaningful support (low P/E and solid dividend yield), while technical indicators remain weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), limiting the overall score.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability
Cascades has moved from multi-year losses to TTM positive net income and stronger operating earnings, a structural improvement in profitability. Sustained operating profit restores internal funding capacity, supports reinvestment and reduces reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt modestly above equity and a persistent elevated leverage profile constrain financial flexibility. In a cyclical packaging industry higher leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate risk, limits ability to invest opportunistically, and amplifies earnings volatility if volumes or margins weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved profitability
Cascades has moved from multi-year losses to TTM positive net income and stronger operating earnings, a structural improvement in profitability. Sustained operating profit restores internal funding capacity, supports reinvestment and reduces reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Cascades (CAS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.06B
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)162.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.7
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth0.02%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees9,700
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.02
Shares Outstanding101,306,340
10 Day Avg. Volume168,034
30 Day Avg. Volume162,691
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio5.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$13.33Price Target Upside22.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.81B
Cascades Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cascades Inc. produces, converts, and markets packaging and tissue products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through three segments: Containerboard, Specialty Products, and Tissue Papers. It manufactures containerboards, as we...
How the Company Makes Money
Cascades makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaging and tissue products to business customers (and, in some cases, to retail channels via customers/brands). Its core revenue streams generally align with its operating segments: (1...
Cascades Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call indicates a strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant improvements in both the Packaging and Tissue segments, as well as successful debt reduction efforts. However, there are concerns regarding environmental and restructuring costs, along with a cautious outlook for Q4 due to potential demand fluctuations.Positive Updates
Stronger Than Expected Q3 Performance
Cascades' Q3 2025 performance was stronger than projections, driven by improved volumes, higher average selling prices, and lower production costs. Consolidated EBITDA increased by 16% from Q2 and 14% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Environmental and Restructuring Costs
Operating income was impacted by $12 million due to a $10 million environmental provision related to a plant closure in Canada and $6 million of restructuring charges mainly from the Niagara Falls mill closure.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stronger Than Expected Q3 Performance
Cascades' Q3 2025 performance was stronger than projections, driven by improved volumes, higher average selling prices, and lower production costs. Consolidated EBITDA increased by 16% from Q2 and 14% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Cascades' Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance regarding its performance and future expectations. The company reported a consolidated EBITDA of $159 million, which marked a 16% increase from Q2 and a 14% year-over-year increase. Specific to the Packaging segment, Q3 EBITDA increased by 14% sequentially to $136 million, with an improvement in EBITDA margins to 17.1%. The Tissue business also showed strength, with a 21% sequential increase in EBITDA to $46 million. For Q4, Cascades anticipates favorable trends in raw material and selling prices for Packaging, although demand levels are expected to be stable to 10% below Q3 levels due to seasonality and economic uncertainty. The company also highlighted a reduction in net debt by $81 million during Q3, reflecting stronger cash flow from operations, with a leverage ratio decrease to 3.6x. Capital expenditures are projected to be slightly lower than previous estimates for 2025, with expectations set at approximately $140 million. Additionally, Cascades aims to achieve $100 million in run rate profitability improvements by the end of 2026 through ongoing initiatives.Cascades Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.75B | 4.78B | 4.70B | 4.64B | 4.47B | 3.96B |
| Gross Profit | 895.00M | 565.00M | 1.85B | 1.66B | 1.63B | 491.00M |
| EBITDA | 529.00M | 591.00M | 392.00M | 330.00M | 273.00M | 281.00M |
| Net Income | 102.00M | 70.00M | -31.00M | -76.00M | -14.00M | -47.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.74B | 4.67B | 5.00B | 4.77B | 5.05B | 4.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.00M | 48.00M | 28.00M | 54.00M | 111.00M | 175.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.99B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 1.94B | 2.07B | 1.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.95B | 2.92B | 3.23B | 2.99B | 3.13B | 2.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.76B | 1.72B | 1.72B | 1.74B | 1.87B | 1.88B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 305.00M | 227.00M | 88.00M | 159.00M | -362.00M | -90.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 449.00M | 379.00M | 272.00M | 510.00M | 144.00M | 211.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 30.00M | -94.00M | -150.00M | -332.00M | -486.00M | -247.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -423.00M | -263.00M | -149.00M | -225.00M | 272.00M | -529.00M |
Cascades Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.87
Price Trends
11.96
Negative
12.27
Negative
11.09
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.32
Positive
41.20
Neutral
19.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CAS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.20, below the 50-day MA of 11.96, and below the 200-day MA of 11.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CAS.
Cascades Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | C$14.95B | 18.41 | 14.41% | 1.46% | 4.34% | -4.98% | |
69 Neutral | C$459.51M | 16.26 | 7.69% | 8.22% | -14.81% | -9.37% | |
67 Neutral | C$2.34B | 15.42 | 10.32% | 7.11% | -2.26% | -7.15% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | C$1.06B | 7.67 | 5.95% | 3.90% | 0.02% | ― | |
60 Neutral | C$310.09M | 18.41 | 10.96% | ― | 5.99% | -47.22% | |
58 Neutral | C$88.78M | 28.46 | 10.80% | 19.66% | 0.50% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:CAS
Cascades
10.44
1.99
23.52%
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Cascades Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cascades Cuts Q1 2026 Outlook but Reaffirms Longer-Term Profit Targets
Negative
Apr 10, 2026
Cascades will report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 7 and has cut its outlook for adjusted EBITDA to a range of $115 million to $120 million, down from a prior forecast of $130 million to $142 million. Management cited weather-related disru...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cascades Boosts 2025 Profit, Cuts Debt as Strategic Moves Take Hold
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Cascades reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $1.197 billion, with operating income rising to $76 million and earnings per share improving to $0.37, reflecting stronger packaging performance offset by weaker tissue results and a costly power outa...
Business Operations and Strategy
Cascades Exits Honeycomb and Partition Packaging to Refocus on Core Markets
Negative
Feb 9, 2026
Cascades Inc. is exiting its honeycomb paperboard and partition packaging segments, closing three plants in Berthierville and Saint-Césaire, Quebec, and York, Pennsylvania, as it concentrates on strategic markets where it sees better long-ter...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.