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Cascades (TSE:CAS)
TSX:CAS
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Cascades (CAS) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CAS

Cascades

(TSX:CAS)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
▲(0.08% Upside)
Cascades' stock score is primarily driven by its strong earnings call performance and technical analysis indicators, despite challenges in financial performance and valuation. The company's revenue growth and cash flow improvements are positive, but profitability issues and high leverage remain concerns. The technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but overbought conditions could lead to a pullback. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with improved segment performance and debt reduction, although caution is advised due to potential demand fluctuations.

Cascades (CAS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cascades Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCascades Inc. produces, converts, and markets packaging and tissue products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through three segments: Containerboard, Specialty Products, and Tissue Papers. It manufactures containerboards, as well as converts corrugated products. The company also offers uncoated recycled paperboards for use in packaging converters and industrial users of headers and wrappers for the paper industry, as well as partitions that are used as protective packaging; honeycomb paperboards for the beer, wine, and spirits industry; laminated paperboards for food packaging and furniture backing industries; and specialty containers, structural components, and paperboard and fiber composites. In addition, it provides egg filler flats and egg cartons for egg processors and four-cup carriers for the quick-service restaurant industry; polystyrene foam trays for processors and retailers in the food industry; rigid plastic packaging products for food industry, processors, and retailers; and flexible films for frozen foods, bakery, and ice industries. Further, the company offers bathroom and facial tissues, paper towels, paper hand towels and napkins, and other related products and services under the Cascades PRO Signature, Cascades PRO Perform, Cascades PRO Select, Cascades PRO Tandem, and Cascades PRO Tuff-Job brands; and under the Cascades Fluff, Cascades Tuff, and Satin Soft labels, as well as private labels and other secondary marks. Additionally, it offers services to recover and process discarded materials for the municipal, industrial, commercial, and institutional sectors. The company sells its products through own sales force and external representatives. Cascades Inc. was incorporated in 1964 and is headquartered in Kingsey Falls, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCascades generates revenue through various key streams, primarily from the sale of its packaging and tissue products. The company produces and sells containerboard and boxboard used in the manufacturing of packaging products, which are distributed to various industries including food, consumer goods, and e-commerce. Additionally, Cascades offers tissue products, including bathroom tissue, paper towels, and napkins, which are sold to both retail and commercial customers. Significant partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers help drive sales while the company's commitment to sustainability attracts environmentally conscious consumers. Furthermore, Cascades benefits from its investments in recycling operations, as these initiatives reduce raw material costs and enhance profitability by providing a consistent supply of recycled fibers for production.

Cascades Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call indicates a strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant improvements in both the Packaging and Tissue segments, as well as successful debt reduction efforts. However, there are concerns regarding environmental and restructuring costs, along with a cautious outlook for Q4 due to potential demand fluctuations.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stronger Than Expected Q3 Performance
Cascades' Q3 2025 performance was stronger than projections, driven by improved volumes, higher average selling prices, and lower production costs. Consolidated EBITDA increased by 16% from Q2 and 14% year-over-year.
Packaging Segment Improvement
Packaging sales increased 4% sequentially, with Q3 EBITDA rising 14% sequentially to $136 million. EBITDA margins improved to 17.1% from 15.6% in Q2.
Tissue Business Growth
Third quarter sales in the Tissue segment increased 5% sequentially. EBITDA of $46 million rose 21% from Q2. Year-over-year, sales increased 6% with stronger volumes and higher average selling prices.
Net Debt Reduction
Sequentially, net debt decreased by $81 million in the third quarter, mainly due to stronger cash flow from operations and a reversal in working capital requirements.
Asset Sale and Debt Repayment
Completed sale of Flexible Packaging operation for $31 million, contributing to debt repayment. Total proceeds from asset sales amounted to $57 million this year.
Negative Updates
Environmental and Restructuring Costs
Operating income was impacted by $12 million due to a $10 million environmental provision related to a plant closure in Canada and $6 million of restructuring charges mainly from the Niagara Falls mill closure.
Demand Level Concerns
Cautious outlook for Q4 with anticipated 5% decrease in Packaging volumes due to unusual post-Thanksgiving seasonality and continued macroeconomic uncertainty.
Company Guidance
During the Cascades' Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance regarding its performance and future expectations. The company reported a consolidated EBITDA of $159 million, which marked a 16% increase from Q2 and a 14% year-over-year increase. Specific to the Packaging segment, Q3 EBITDA increased by 14% sequentially to $136 million, with an improvement in EBITDA margins to 17.1%. The Tissue business also showed strength, with a 21% sequential increase in EBITDA to $46 million. For Q4, Cascades anticipates favorable trends in raw material and selling prices for Packaging, although demand levels are expected to be stable to 10% below Q3 levels due to seasonality and economic uncertainty. The company also highlighted a reduction in net debt by $81 million during Q3, reflecting stronger cash flow from operations, with a leverage ratio decrease to 3.6x. Capital expenditures are projected to be slightly lower than previous estimates for 2025, with expectations set at approximately $140 million. Additionally, Cascades aims to achieve $100 million in run rate profitability improvements by the end of 2026 through ongoing initiatives.

Cascades Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cascades is experiencing growth in revenue and cash flow, but profitability remains a significant challenge. The company has a strong gross profit margin, but negative net income and increasing leverage are concerns. While cash flow metrics are improving, the reliance on debt and negative returns on equity highlight the need for strategic improvements to enhance financial stability and profitability.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Cascades has shown a positive revenue growth trend, with a 14.7% increase in the TTM period. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit margins and a negative net income. The gross profit margin is relatively strong at 38.5%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest, suggesting operational efficiency challenges.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.31, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing, which could pose a risk if not managed properly. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's ongoing profitability issues. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cascades has improved its free cash flow by 36.7% in the TTM period, which is a positive sign. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash flow improvements are not yet translating into profitability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.75B4.70B4.64B4.47B3.96B5.16B
Gross Profit1.92B1.85B1.66B1.63B491.00M836.00M
EBITDA436.00M392.00M330.00M273.00M281.00M548.00M
Net Income-8.00M-31.00M-76.00M-14.00M-47.00M198.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.81B5.00B4.77B5.05B4.57B5.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments31.00M28.00M54.00M111.00M175.00M389.00M
Total Debt2.13B2.12B1.94B2.07B1.52B2.06B
Total Liabilities3.11B3.23B2.99B3.13B2.64B3.46B
Stockholders Equity1.67B1.72B1.74B1.87B1.88B1.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow108.00M88.00M159.00M-362.00M-90.00M324.00M
Operating Cash Flow271.00M272.00M510.00M144.00M211.00M587.00M
Investing Cash Flow-119.00M-150.00M-332.00M-486.00M-247.00M-203.00M
Financing Cash Flow-147.00M-149.00M-225.00M272.00M-529.00M-156.00M

Cascades Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price12.49
Price Trends
50DMA
10.65
Positive
100DMA
10.01
Positive
200DMA
9.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.55
Positive
RSI
70.22
Negative
STOCH
51.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CAS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.80, above the 50-day MA of 10.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.22 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CAS.

Cascades Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
C$13.54B17.4115.16%1.53%7.12%17.15%
75
Outperform
C$2.52B13.2810.45%7.33%3.19%-0.26%
75
Outperform
$13.54B17.3214.88%1.49%7.12%17.15%
66
Neutral
C$1.61B9.179.36%9.48%-2.90%57.43%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
$1.13B-141.291.16%3.84%3.50%
54
Neutral
C$87.63M5.3115.15%18.16%-4.69%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CAS
Cascades
12.49
1.32
11.80%
TSE:CCL.A
CCL Industries (A)
84.99
7.08
9.09%
TSE:SXP
Supremex
3.58
0.14
4.07%
TSE:TCL.A
Transcontinental
20.05
4.57
29.52%
TSE:WPK
Winpak
43.65
-3.49
-7.40%
TSE:CCL.B
CCL Industries
83.77
7.77
10.23%

Cascades Corporate Events

Cascades Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings
Nov 7, 2025

Cascades Inc., a Canadian company, specializes in sustainable packaging, hygiene, and recovery solutions, operating in the manufacturing sector with a focus on recycling and innovation. In its third-quarter earnings report for 2025, Cascades Inc. reported a significant improvement in financial performance, with sales reaching $1,238 million, an increase from both the previous quarter and the same period last year. The company’s operating income more than doubled to $73 million compared to the previous quarter, and net earnings per share rose to $0.29, marking a substantial turnaround from a loss in the prior quarter.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cascades Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Cascades Inc. reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with sales reaching $1,238 million and operating income of $73 million. The company saw significant improvements in net earnings per share and a reduction in net debt, driven by strong operational execution and favorable market conditions. The packaging and tissue segments performed well, with the company achieving a 24% increase in production volumes at Bear Island. Looking ahead, Cascades anticipates stable performance in the fourth quarter, despite seasonal challenges in packaging, and remains focused on strategic objectives to enhance its financial and operational profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAS) stock is a Hold with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cascades stock, see the TSE:CAS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Cascades Sells Flexible Packaging Plant to Five Star Holding for CAN$31 Million
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

Cascades Inc. has announced the sale of its Flexible Packaging plant in Mississauga, Ontario, to Five Star Holding for CAN$31 million. This strategic move allows Cascades to reduce its debt and focus on optimizing its operational platform to grow its strategic sectors. The transaction includes a supply agreement to ensure continued production and supply of flexible film for Cascades’ Tissue and Packaging sectors. Five Star will retain all 45 employees and aims to accelerate growth in sustainability-focused packaging across North America.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAS) stock is a Hold with a C$10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cascades stock, see the TSE:CAS Stock Forecast page.

Cascades Inc. Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiments and Strategic Outlook
Aug 13, 2025

The recent earnings call for Cascades Inc. revealed a mixed sentiment, highlighting both achievements and challenges faced by the company. On the positive side, there was notable EBITDA growth and improvements in the Packaging segment and Bear Island facility. However, the company also faced significant hurdles, including operational issues at the Greenpac Mill, a decline in Tissue business profitability, and trade uncertainties. Additionally, the closure of the Niagara Falls mill added a financial strain.

Cascades Inc. Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Aug 8, 2025

Cascades Inc., a leader in sustainable packaging and hygiene solutions, operates across North America with a focus on innovative and eco-friendly products.

Financial Disclosures
Cascades Inc. Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results with Improved EBITDA and Reduced Debt
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

Cascades Inc. reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting a slight increase in sales to $1,187 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $137 million. Despite a net loss per share, the company saw improvements in operating income and a reduction in net debt. The packaging segment benefited from price increases and stable shipments, while the tissue segment maintained stable results despite higher operational costs. The company anticipates a slightly better performance in the third quarter, with stable packaging results and stronger tissue performance expected.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAS) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cascades stock, see the TSE:CAS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025