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Cascades (TSE:CAS)
TSX:CAS
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Cascades (CAS) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CAS

Cascades

(TSX:CAS)

Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$10.50
▲(5.95% Upside)
Cascades' overall score is driven by its financial performance challenges, particularly profitability issues, despite revenue and cash flow growth. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but valuation concerns persist due to a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook with strong EBITDA growth but highlighted operational challenges and demand uncertainties.

Cascades (CAS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cascades Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCascades Inc. produces, converts, and markets packaging and tissue products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through three segments: Containerboard, Specialty Products, and Tissue Papers. It manufactures containerboards, as well as converts corrugated products. The company also offers uncoated recycled paperboards for use in packaging converters and industrial users of headers and wrappers for the paper industry, as well as partitions that are used as protective packaging; honeycomb paperboards for the beer, wine, and spirits industry; laminated paperboards for food packaging and furniture backing industries; and specialty containers, structural components, and paperboard and fiber composites. In addition, it provides egg filler flats and egg cartons for egg processors and four-cup carriers for the quick-service restaurant industry; polystyrene foam trays for processors and retailers in the food industry; rigid plastic packaging products for food industry, processors, and retailers; and flexible films for frozen foods, bakery, and ice industries. Further, the company offers bathroom and facial tissues, paper towels, paper hand towels and napkins, and other related products and services under the Cascades PRO Signature, Cascades PRO Perform, Cascades PRO Select, Cascades PRO Tandem, and Cascades PRO Tuff-Job brands; and under the Cascades Fluff, Cascades Tuff, and Satin Soft labels, as well as private labels and other secondary marks. Additionally, it offers services to recover and process discarded materials for the municipal, industrial, commercial, and institutional sectors. The company sells its products through own sales force and external representatives. Cascades Inc. was incorporated in 1964 and is headquartered in Kingsey Falls, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCascades generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of packaging products and tissue papers. The company benefits from its ability to leverage recycled materials, which not only lowers production costs but also aligns with growing consumer demand for sustainable products. Additionally, Cascades has established significant partnerships with various retailers and businesses, which help secure long-term contracts and stable supply agreements. Their revenue model is further supported by a focus on innovation and the development of new products that meet market needs, thereby enhancing their competitive position and driving growth.

Cascades Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant EBITDA growth and improved liquidity. However, the company faced operational challenges and recorded impairment charges due to the closure of a mill. While the Packaging segment showed solid growth, the Tissue segment experienced a year-over-year decline. Demand uncertainty due to trade policies remains a concern.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
EBITDA Growth
Consolidated EBITDA of $137 million increased 10% from Q1 and 22% year-over-year, driven by stronger performance in the Packaging segment and improved pricing.
Packaging Segment Performance
Second quarter EBITDA for the Packaging segment increased by 9% sequentially to $119 million, with EBITDA margins improving by 1.3% to 15.6% in Q2.
Bear Island Facility Improvement
Production at Bear Island increased 8% to 82,000 tons versus the first quarter, with further improvements expected to reach 91% of the targeted ramp-up production level.
Debt Reduction
Net debt decreased by $112 million in the second quarter, with the leverage ratio going down to 3.8x from 4.2x at the end of the first quarter.
Tissue Business Growth
Second quarter sales in the Tissue segment increased 8% sequentially, driven by stronger volumes and favorable pricing and mix.
Liquidity Improvement
Available liquidity improved by $400 million since the end of Q1 to $595 million.
Negative Updates
Operational Challenges
Capacity was limited at the Greenpac mill due to operational issues at the third-party steam supplier, impacting production and costing an estimated $4 million in the quarter.
Niagara Falls Mill Closure
Impairment charges of $23 million were recorded due to the closure of the Niagara Falls mill.
Tissue Segment Year-over-Year Decline
Year-over-year EBITDA for the Tissue segment decreased by $16 million due to lower volumes, higher operating costs, and a slightly lower average selling price.
Uncertain Demand due to Trade Policies
Cautious demand levels were noted across segments due to ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Cascades reported a 3% sequential increase in sales driven by volume and selling price, despite facing demand challenges due to global trade uncertainties. Year-over-year sales rose by 1%, with consolidated EBITDA climbing 22% to $137 million, boosted by strong performance in the Packaging segment. The segment's EBITDA increased by 9% sequentially to $119 million, with margins improving to 15.6%. The Tissue business saw an 8% sequential sales increase and a marginal EBITDA rise to $38 million. The Bear Island facility improved production by 8% to 82,000 tons, nearing its targeted ramp-up level. The company revised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to $150 million and reduced net debt by $112 million, with a leverage ratio decline to 3.8x. Cascades aims for a $100 million profitability improvement by the end of 2026 and plans to achieve an $80 million asset monetization target by mid-2026.

Cascades Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cascades shows stable revenue growth and solid cash flow management, indicating operational resilience. However, profitability struggles persist, as reflected in negative net income and low EBIT margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, allowing some financial stability but with a need for improved profitability.
Income Statement
62
Positive
The company shows a modest revenue growth of 0.96% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting resilience in sales. However, the net profit margin is negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. The EBIT margin is low at 2.87%, although EBITDA margin is relatively better at 9.14%, suggesting some operational efficiency. Overall, while there is stable revenue growth, profitability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.31, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on Equity is negative due to the net loss, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is 34.02%, suggesting a reasonable proportion of assets financed by shareholders. The balance sheet reflects a company with moderate leverage but with room to improve profitability.
Cash Flow
66
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, showing robust cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow has decreased but remains positive, indicating some financial flexibility. Free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting efficient cash management. Cash flow performance is solid, with strong operating cash flow providing a buffer against profitability challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.75B4.70B4.64B4.47B3.96B5.16B
Gross Profit1.92B1.85B1.66B1.63B491.00M836.00M
EBITDA436.00M392.00M307.00M273.00M281.00M548.00M
Net Income-8.00M-31.00M-76.00M-14.00M-47.00M198.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.81B5.00B4.77B5.05B4.57B5.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments31.00M28.00M54.00M111.00M175.00M389.00M
Total Debt2.13B2.12B1.94B2.07B1.52B2.06B
Total Liabilities3.11B3.23B2.99B3.13B2.64B3.46B
Stockholders Equity1.67B1.72B1.74B1.87B1.88B1.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow108.00M88.00M159.00M-362.00M-90.00M324.00M
Operating Cash Flow271.00M272.00M510.00M144.00M211.00M587.00M
Investing Cash Flow-119.00M-150.00M-332.00M-486.00M-247.00M-203.00M
Financing Cash Flow-147.00M-149.00M-225.00M272.00M-529.00M-156.00M

Cascades Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.91
Price Trends
50DMA
9.25
Positive
100DMA
9.02
Positive
200DMA
10.13
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.22
Negative
RSI
62.86
Neutral
STOCH
58.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CAS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.52, above the 50-day MA of 9.25, and below the 200-day MA of 10.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CAS.

Cascades Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$14.23B18.6315.20%1.46%7.90%19.55%
71
Outperform
C$2.56B13.4210.79%7.66%4.69%4.54%
68
Neutral
C$1.68B9.389.65%9.45%-2.58%100.21%
61
Neutral
$17.75B12.51-5.49%3.06%1.43%-14.10%
60
Neutral
$1.00B-0.47%4.84%2.77%81.01%
58
Neutral
C$107.57M-12.57%4.42%-3.54%-244.21%
$10.28B18.3614.88%1.49%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CAS
Cascades
9.91
1.08
12.18%
TSE:CCL.A
CCL Industries (A)
82.74
5.98
7.79%
TSE:SXP
Supremex
4.30
0.12
2.87%
TSE:TCL.A
Transcontinental
20.11
5.13
34.25%
TSE:WPK
Winpak
41.76
-0.45
-1.07%
CCDBF
CCL Industries
59.16
3.23
5.78%

Cascades Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Cascades Inc. Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results with Improved EBITDA and Reduced Debt
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

Cascades Inc. reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting a slight increase in sales to $1,187 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $137 million. Despite a net loss per share, the company saw improvements in operating income and a reduction in net debt. The packaging segment benefited from price increases and stable shipments, while the tissue segment maintained stable results despite higher operational costs. The company anticipates a slightly better performance in the third quarter, with stable packaging results and stronger tissue performance expected.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAS) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cascades stock, see the TSE:CAS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Cascades Inc. to Close Niagara Falls Facility to Optimize Packaging Operations
Negative
Jul 9, 2025

Cascades Inc. has announced the permanent closure of its corrugated medium manufacturing facility in Niagara Falls, NY, as part of its strategy to optimize its packaging production platform. This decision, which will affect 123 employees, is aimed at enhancing profitability and customer service levels. Despite the closure, Cascades remains committed to strategic growth and will provide job search support to the affected employees. The company emphasizes that the closure will not impact its ability to serve customers due to its streamlined operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAS) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cascades stock, see the TSE:CAS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Cascades Inc. Announces $400 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 29, 2025

Cascades Inc. announced the pricing of a private placement of US$400 million in Senior Notes due 2030, with a 6.750% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to redeem existing notes, repay part of its revolving credit facility, and cover transaction costs, potentially strengthening its financial position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAS) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cascades stock, see the TSE:CAS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cascades Inc. Announces $400 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 28, 2025

Cascades Inc. announced a proposed private offering of US$400 million in Senior Notes due 2030, with the intention to use the proceeds to redeem existing notes, repay part of its revolving credit facility, and cover transaction expenses. This move is aimed at optimizing the company’s financial structure and could enhance its market position by reducing debt and improving liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAS) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cascades stock, see the TSE:CAS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025