Winpak (WPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.82B
• Dividend Yield: 7.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 50.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 3.19%
• EPS Growth: -0.26%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.82
• Shares Outstanding: 58,662,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 54,448
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 50,738
• PEG Ratio: -5.57
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$51.00
• Price Target Upside: 6.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.46
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.19B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$54.00 ▲(12.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial resilience (minimal leverage and steady profitability). Technicals add support via a clear uptrend and positive momentum, though the high Stochastic suggests limited near-term room. Valuation is reasonable on earnings, but the low dividend yield modestly tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet and minimal leverage

Very low leverage and reported zero total debt in 2025 give Winpak durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, supports steady capital allocation for capex or dividends, and cushions the business during demand cyclicality over the next 2–6 months.

Recurring consumables business with machinery pull-through

The core model of recurring high-barrier materials sales provides steady volume-linked revenue. Machinery sales create customer lock-in and drive ongoing consumable demand, strengthening revenue durability and margin visibility versus one-off product businesses over a medium-term horizon.

Stable profitability with steady ROE

Consistent ~10–12% ROE and generally strong margins indicate efficient operations and disciplined pricing/product mix. This earnings resilience supports reinvestment and consistent cash generation, making operating performance more predictable across near-to-medium term business cycles.

Negative Factors

Modest recent revenue growth and top-line stagnation

Revenue expansion has been tepid, with only modest growth in 2025 after prior soft years. Without clear acceleration or new structural demand drivers, organic growth may remain limited, pressuring the company to rely on pricing or share gains to drive durable top-line expansion.

Volatile free cash flow and cash conversion

While FCF is positive, year-to-year swings and inconsistent cash conversion reduce predictability of internal funding for capex, dividends, or buybacks. Working-capital and capex timing variability increases execution risk for strategic investments over the coming months.

Exposure to raw material cost swings and pass-through risk

Winpak's margins are sensitive to resin and other raw-material price volatility. If competitive pressures or customer contract terms limit pricing pass-through, input-cost spikes could compress margins, making near-to-medium term earnings and cashflow less resilient.

Winpak Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Winpak Ltd. manufactures and distributes packaging materials and related packaging machines in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Flexible Packaging, Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding, and Packaging Machinery. The Flexible Packaging segment provides modified atmosphere packaging products for fresh and processed meats, poultry, cheese, medical device packaging, and high performance pouch applications; high-barrier films for converting applications; barrier and non-barrier films, including shrink bags for printing, laminating, and bag making applications; and biaxially oriented nylon films for food packaging and industrial applications. The Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding segment offers portion control and single-serve containers, as well as plastic sheet, custom, and retort trays for food, pet food, beverage, dairy, industrial, and healthcare applications; die-cut, daisy chain, and rollstock lidding products for food, dairy, beverage, industrial, and healthcare applications; and specialized printed packaging solutions for the pharmaceutical, healthcare, nutraceutical, cosmetic, and personal care markets. The Packaging Machinery segment provides horizontal fill/seal machines for preformed containers and vertical form/fill/seal pouch machines for pumpable liquid and semi-liquid, as well as various dry products. The company was incorporated in 1975 and is based in Winnipeg, Canada. Winpak Ltd. is a subsidiary of Wihuri International Oy.

How the Company Makes Money

Winpak generates revenue through the sale of various packaging products and solutions to its clients in multiple sectors, primarily food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and medical industries. The company's revenue model is built on producing and selling flexible and rigid packaging materials, which include bags, films, containers, and more. Key revenue streams come from long-term contracts with major food manufacturers and distributors, as well as partnerships with pharmaceutical companies. Winpak also benefits from a focus on innovation and sustainability, which attracts clients looking for eco-friendly packaging solutions. Additionally, the company's investments in advanced manufacturing technologies allow it to enhance production efficiency, reduce costs, and meet the growing demand for customized packaging solutions.

Winpak Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial profile is strong, led by an exceptionally conservative balance sheet (very low/zero debt and steady ~10–12% ROE). Profitability is solid but recent revenue growth is modest and net income in 2025 is below 2023–2024. Cash flow is positive with free cash flow each year, but volatility in free cash flow and cash conversion reduces quality/stability.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and consistent, with healthy operating earnings and net income across the period. Revenue growth has been modest recently (2025 up ~2% after a slightly down 2024 and 2023), but margins have generally remained strong, supporting stable earnings power. The main weakness is the lack of clear top-line acceleration and some year-to-year earnings softness (2025 net income below 2023–2024).

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength is a key advantage: leverage is minimal (debt-to-equity around ~1% in 2020–2024, and total debt is shown as zero in 2025), and equity is large relative to the asset base. Returns on equity are steady around the ~10–12% range (2022–2024), indicating good profitability without reliance on debt. A watch item is that total assets dipped in 2025 versus 2024, but overall financial risk appears very low.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with operating cash flow consistently positive and free cash flow positive each year. However, free cash flow has been volatile (notably down in 2024 vs. 2023, then rebounding strongly in 2025), suggesting swings in working capital and/or capital spending. Cash conversion also fluctuates meaningfully (operating cash flow relative to net income ranged from strong in 2023 to weaker in 2024), which lowers the quality/stability score despite the rebound.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.15B	1.13B	1.14B	1.18B	1.00B
Gross Profit	346.74M	361.63M	334.15M	331.76M	274.45M
EBITDA	236.15M	265.40M	250.22M	224.24M	189.70M
Net Income	139.43M	149.46M	148.13M	128.34M	103.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.56B	1.65B	1.57B	1.46B	1.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	374.94M	497.26M	541.87M	398.67M	377.46M
Total Debt	29.92M	17.85M	13.84M	12.53M	13.49M
Total Liabilities	239.81M	363.21M	187.82M	223.71M	205.96M
Stockholders Equity	1.29B	1.25B	1.35B	1.20B	1.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	103.23M	58.14M	151.81M	28.11M	48.52M
Operating Cash Flow	189.61M	181.92M	220.84M	77.57M	97.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-87.34M	-123.77M	-69.03M	-49.46M	-48.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-226.04M	-102.75M	-8.61M	-6.90M	-166.40M

Winpak Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 48.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WPK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.33, above the 50-day MA of 46.25, and above the 200-day MA of 43.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:WPK.

Winpak Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WPK	77 Outperform	C$2.82B	15.34	10.45%	7.11%	3.19%	-0.26%
CCL.A	77 Outperform	C$16.25B	20.44	15.16%	1.44%	7.12%	17.15%
TCL.A	74 Outperform	C$1.96B	11.40	8.95%	8.32%	-2.45%	44.20%
SXP	65 Neutral	C$88.53M	7.55	15.15%	19.66%	-4.69%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CAS	53 Neutral	C$1.23B	17.39	1.16%	3.90%	3.50%	―
IFX	47 Neutral	C$122.15M	91.60	2.09%	―	0.32%	-76.77%

Winpak Corporate Events

Winpak Declares First-Quarter 2026 Dividend

Winpak Ltd.’s board of directors has declared a first-quarter 2026 dividend of five Canadian cents per share, payable on April 10 to shareholders of record as of April 1. The move underscores the company’s continued practice of returning capital to investors and signals confidence in its financial position within the competitive packaging industry.

The dividend declaration may be viewed by shareholders as a sign of stable cash flow generation from Winpak’s core packaging operations. It also reinforces the firm’s commitment to shareholder returns at a time when demand for food, beverage, and healthcare packaging remains strategically important across North American markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WPK) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Winpak stock, see the TSE:WPK Stock Forecast page.

Winpak Posts Lower 2025 Profit on Margin Pressure Despite Stable Revenue

Winpak reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $284.9 million, essentially flat year over year, while net income attributable to equity holders declined 1.2 percent to $36.2 million, as lower gross profit and reduced net finance income weighed on results. For the full year 2025, revenue dipped slightly to $1.13 billion and earnings fell 8.1 percent to $137.3 million, reflecting margin pressure and softer profitability that may signal a more challenging operating environment for the packaging group.

Despite the earnings contraction, Winpak maintained stable top-line performance, suggesting demand resilience across its food, beverage and healthcare packaging end markets. However, the deterioration in gross profit and EBITDA, alongside lower net finance income, underscores cost and margin headwinds that investors will watch closely as they assess the company’s ability to protect profitability in a competitive and cost-sensitive packaging industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WPK) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Winpak stock, see the TSE:WPK Stock Forecast page.

Winpak Earns Fourth Straight A- Climate Score from CDP

Winpak Ltd. has received an A- score from the Carbon Disclosure Project for the fourth consecutive year, placing the company among global leaders in environmental governance, climate disclosure and climate risk management. The repeat rating reflects Winpak’s continued progress in emissions tracking, energy-efficiency initiatives, emissions reduction efforts and supplier engagement, underscoring how its sustainability strategy is increasingly embedded in day-to-day operations and seen as a driver of both environmental performance and long-term business value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WPK) stock is a Buy with a C$52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Winpak stock, see the TSE:WPK Stock Forecast page.

Winpak Declares Fourth Quarter 2025 Dividend

Winpak Ltd. has announced a dividend of five cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on January 12, 2026, to shareholders recorded by January 2, 2026. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and could positively impact its market position by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WPK) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Winpak stock, see the TSE:WPK Stock Forecast page.