Shopify Inc. (TSE:SHOP)
NASDAQ:SHOP
Want to see TSE:SHOP full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Shopify
(NASDAQ:SHOP)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$144.00
▼(-19.77% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (low leverage, improved margins, and robust free cash flow) and a bullish earnings outlook with continued high growth and operating leverage. Offsetting these positives are weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and unfavorable/unclear valuation signals from a negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Platform & ecosystem network effects
A billion-item catalog plus an active app/developer ecosystem and AI-driven search materially raise switching costs and conversion for merchants. Over months, this bolsters retention, drives merchant monetization (payments, campaigns) and reinforces a durable multi-sided platform moat.
Negative Factors
Profitability & cash-flow volatility
Historical swings in profitability and cash flow indicate sensitivity to operating conditions and non-recurring items. This structural volatility can complicate multi-quarter planning, stress test margins during downturns, and raise execution risk as Shopify scales newer, capital-intensive services.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform & ecosystem network effects
A billion-item catalog plus an active app/developer ecosystem and AI-driven search materially raise switching costs and conversion for merchants. Over months, this bolsters retention, drives merchant monetization (payments, campaigns) and reinforces a durable multi-sided platform moat.
Read all positive factors
Shopify (SHOP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$179.00B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.35
Revenue Growth30.85%
EPS Growth-15.81%
CountryCA
Employees8,100
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.04
Shares Outstanding1,219,581,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,852,002
30 Day Avg. Volume2,113,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.30
Price to Book (P/B)15.54
Price to Sales (P/S)17.78
P/FCF Ratio102.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$215.48Price Target Upside20.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)2.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$20.18B
Shopify Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company's platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets,...
How the Company Makes Money
Shopify primarily makes money by monetizing its merchant base through two broad revenue categories: subscription revenue and merchant solutions revenue.
1) Subscription revenue: Shopify charges recurring fees for access to its platform plans. The...
Shopify Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: very large GMV and revenue growth, robust free cash flow, rapid adoption and monetization of AI products (Sidekick, catalog, Campaigns), sizable payments and Shop Pay momentum, and broad strength across geographies, channels and merchant sizes, including enterprise wins. The primary negatives were manageable near‑term headwinds—rising transaction/credit losses as financial products scale, higher LLM costs as AI usage grows, normalization of a developer revenue‑share benefit, modest FX and tax impacts, and some regulatory/accounting changes. Overall, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights, indicating durable growth and a compounding platform advantage.Positive Updates
GMV Milestone and Growth
Q1 GMV was $101 billion, up 35% year‑over‑year (30% on a constant currency basis), marking the second consecutive quarter above $100 billion.
Negative Updates
Rising Transaction and Loan Losses
Transaction and loan losses increased to 3.7% of revenue in Q1 from 3.2% in Q1 2025; the year‑over‑year increase was driven largely by credit exposure as payments and capital volumes scale.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
GMV Milestone and Growth
Q1 GMV was $101 billion, up 35% year‑over‑year (30% on a constant currency basis), marking the second consecutive quarter above $100 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shopify guided Q2 to revenue growth in the high‑20s percent year‑over‑year, gross profit dollars growth in the mid‑20s, operating expenses of 35–36% of revenue (an improvement from 37% in Q1), and free cash flow margins in the mid‑teens (Q1 FCF was $476M, or 15% of revenue); the outlook assumes ~0.5 points of FX tailwind versus >2 points in Q1 and management said an accounting change for merchant cash advances beginning in Q2 should add roughly 0.5 points to FCF margins, while the revenue vs. gross‑profit differential is driven by a narrowing mix shift between Merchant Solutions and Subscription Solutions and continued payments strength.Shopify Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.37B | 11.76B | 8.88B | 7.06B | 5.60B | 4.61B |
| Gross Profit | 5.92B | 5.63B | 4.47B | 3.52B | 2.75B | 2.48B |
| EBITDA | 1.96B | 1.96B | 1.28B | -8.00M | -383.00M | 3.21B |
| Net Income | 1.35B | 1.25B | 2.02B | 132.00M | -3.46B | 2.91B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.13B | 15.16B | 13.92B | 11.30B | 10.76B | 13.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.75B | 5.77B | 5.48B | 5.01B | 5.05B | 7.77B |
| Total Debt | 179.13M | 358.35M | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.40B | 1.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.62B | 1.71B | 2.37B | 2.23B | 2.52B | 2.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.51B | 13.45B | 11.56B | 9.07B | 8.24B | 11.13B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.12B | 2.04B | 1.60B | 905.00M | -186.00M | 453.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.15B | 2.07B | 1.62B | 944.00M | -136.00M | 504.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -277.22M | -1.21B | -1.59B | -1.24B | -719.00M | -2.35B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.36B | -825.20M | 61.00M | 60.00M | 18.00M | 1.65B |
Shopify Technical Analysis
Negative
179.49
Price Trends
163.61
Negative
177.46
Negative
194.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.82
Positive
37.21
Neutral
13.11
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SHOP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 179.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 158.71, above the 50-day MA of 163.61, and below the 200-day MA of 194.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SHOP.
Shopify Risk Analysis
Shopify disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shopify reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shopify Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | C$3.84B | 24.17 | 19.72% | ― | 16.06% | 744.14% | |
71 Outperform | C$8.01B | 34.64 | 10.76% | ― | 13.08% | 14.82% | |
70 Outperform | C$179.00B | -67.66 | 10.52% | ― | 30.85% | -15.81% | |
69 Neutral | C$7.55B | 8.13 | 12.93% | 3.27% | -0.86% | -16.61% | |
67 Neutral | C$55.36B | 25.77 | 20.79% | 0.17% | 16.36% | -0.70% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.67B | -12.26 | -44.56% | ― | 14.98% | -500.11% |
* Technology Sector Average
TSE:SHOP
Shopify
137.94
-10.09
-6.82%
TSE:OTEX
Open Text
31.13
-6.88
-18.10%
TSE:DSG
The Descartes Systems Group
93.16
-65.63
-41.33%
TSE:CSU
Constellation Software
2,612.34
-2,430.07
-48.19%
TSE:KXS
Kinaxis Inc
138.89
-60.31
-30.28%
TSE:LSPD
Lightspeed POS Inc
12.18
-3.06
-20.08%
Shopify Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke Adopts New Automatic Plan to Sell Class A Shares
Neutral
Mar 7, 2026
Shopify Chief Executive Officer Tobias Lütke has adopted new automatic securities disposition plans to sell up to 1,987,032 Class A subordinate voting shares he holds directly and indirectly, including through holding entities 7910240 Canada ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.