Source Energy Services Ltd (TSE:SHLE)
TSX:SHLE
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Source Energy Services Ltd
(TSX:SHLE)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
C$15.50
▲(1.84% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by moderate financial performance (positive profitability and cash flow, but weaker TTM momentum and meaningful leverage). Technicals are a key drag with the stock trading below major moving averages and weak momentum indicators. Earnings-call commentary is supportive (flat-to-up volume outlook, liquidity, buyback/debt reduction) but tempered by ongoing margin and cost pressures, while valuation is less supportive due to a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Integrated proppant & logistics scale
Source’s integrated mine-to-wellsite footprint—Peace River capacity, new terminals and strengthened last-mile trucking—creates durable service differentiation. Owning production plus terminals lowers customer switching costs, secures volumes through contracts and supports capture of logistics margin as LNG/export activity ramps over months.
Negative Factors
Revenue and free cash flow decline
A falling revenue trend and large FCF contraction materially weaken internal funding capacity. Reduced free cash flow limits reinvestment and increases sensitivity to drilling/completion cycles, making sustained capex, buybacks or rapid debt paydown harder without restoring topline or margins over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated proppant & logistics scale
Source’s integrated mine-to-wellsite footprint—Peace River capacity, new terminals and strengthened last-mile trucking—creates durable service differentiation. Owning production plus terminals lowers customer switching costs, secures volumes through contracts and supports capture of logistics margin as LNG/export activity ramps over months.
Read all positive factors
Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$193.46M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)27.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth-8.55%
EPS Growth-80.24%
CountryCA
Employees512
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.46
Shares Outstanding13,080,255
10 Day Avg. Volume38,581
30 Day Avg. Volume27,520
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.97
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio6.59
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$15.00Price Target Upside-1.45% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$726.20M
Source Energy Services Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Source Energy Services Ltd. produces, supplies, and distributes Northern White frac sand used primarily in oil and gas exploration and production in Western Canada and the United States. It also provides storage and logistics services for other bu...
How the Company Makes Money
Source Energy Services makes money primarily by providing frac sand and sand-related logistics services to upstream oil and gas producers and completion services companies. Key revenue streams include: (1) Proppant supply and distribution: revenue...
Source Energy Services Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a positive operational and strategic story—record volumes and revenue, significant year-over-year net income improvement, facility expansions, logistics enhancements, a share buyback and debt reduction—while also acknowledging margin pressure from product and terminal mix, incremental commissioning and weather-related costs, higher capex/lease commitments and tax/currency headwinds. Management expects 2026 volumes to be broadly flat with potential back-half upside and continued investment focused on optimizing recently expanded capabilities.Positive Updates
Record Volumes and Revenue
Total 2025 sand sales volume reached a record 3.7 million metric tons, up 5% year-over-year; total revenue for 2025 was $700.3 million, an increase of $26.4 million (≈+3.9%) versus 2024.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin and Adjusted Gross Margin Declines
Reported gross margin for 2025 was $116.6 million, down 8% year-over-year; adjusted gross margin was $159.3 million, down 2% versus 2024, reflecting mix shifts and incremental facility costs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Volumes and Revenue
Total 2025 sand sales volume reached a record 3.7 million metric tons, up 5% year-over-year; total revenue for 2025 was $700.3 million, an increase of $26.4 million (≈+3.9%) versus 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Source’s forward-looking guidance for 2026 calls for net capital expenditures of $30–$40 million (majority on Peace River optimization and existing terminals), an expectation that full‑year sand volumes will be fairly flat year‑over‑year with steadier quarter‑to‑quarter pacing and potential back‑half upside as LNG Canada ramps, and a focus on growth areas such as expanded chemical transloading; supporting metrics and capacity highlights noted on the call include Peace River expanded to ~1.0 million tons of production, domestic sand capability of ~1.0 million tons/year, completed Taylor terminal and expanded Chetwynd terminal, Sahara unit utilization at 50% in Canada and 100% in the U.S. (Q4), year‑end available liquidity of $59.9 million, and the company being cash‑taxable in the U.S. now (with Canada expected to follow within about a year).Source Energy Services Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 651.96M | 700.30M | 673.95M | 569.75M | 415.91M | 319.86M |
| Gross Profit | 89.13M | 93.86M | 127.34M | 109.41M | 58.15M | 39.33M |
| EBITDA | 104.96M | 114.57M | 102.69M | 223.89M | 55.76M | 36.89M |
| Net Income | 6.18M | 33.08M | 9.51M | 167.34M | -2.93M | -56.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 614.07M | 617.13M | 598.22M | 482.83M | 326.90M | 266.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.01M | 19.90M | 32.72M | 0.00 | -68.42M | -38.44M |
| Total Debt | 297.26M | 352.69M | 274.87M | 221.78M | 244.94M | 221.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 405.53M | 408.24M | 408.35M | 313.70M | 321.24M | 259.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 208.54M | 208.90M | 189.87M | 169.13M | 5.66M | 6.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.88M | 30.76M | 51.06M | 28.98M | 65.01M | 7.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 76.78M | 90.61M | 94.39M | 51.09M | 80.17M | 14.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -64.54M | -59.35M | -27.06M | -13.20M | -13.90M | -6.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.65M | -43.25M | -34.61M | -67.04M | -66.28M | -8.01M |
Source Energy Services Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
15.22
Price Trends
16.16
Negative
15.68
Negative
14.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
47.99
Neutral
62.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SHLE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.00, below the 50-day MA of 16.16, and above the 200-day MA of 14.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SHLE.
Source Energy Services Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | C$1.66B | 12.71 | 19.03% | 3.57% | 20.60% | 6.72% | |
82 Outperform | C$949.20M | 8.57 | 12.57% | 2.57% | 18.21% | 29.33% | |
72 Outperform | C$4.67B | 20.96 | 7.72% | 0.74% | 11.15% | 10.92% | |
71 Outperform | C$3.86B | 19.25 | 26.01% | 1.29% | 6.08% | 24.69% | |
66 Neutral | C$580.25M | 8.66 | 4.57% | ― | -17.68% | 123.13% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
55 Neutral | C$193.46M | -14.73 | 2.93% | ― | -8.55% | -80.24% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:SHLE
Source Energy Services Ltd
14.79
3.26
28.27%
TSE:CEU
CES Energy Solutions
18.40
12.35
203.98%
TSE:CFW
Calfrac Well Services
5.81
2.51
75.95%
TSE:EFX
Enerflex
38.34
28.53
290.95%
TSE:TOT
Total Energy Services
26.05
16.04
160.11%
TSE:TCW
Trican Well Service
7.89
3.59
83.32%
Source Energy Services Ltd Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Source Energy Services Sets Q1 2026 Results Date and Virtual AGM
Neutral
Apr 13, 2026
Source Energy Services Ltd., a TSX‑listed energy services provider, specializes in the integrated production and distribution of frac sand and other bulk completion materials for the oil and gas sector. Leveraging mines in Wisconsin and Peac...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Source Energy Services Posts Record 2025 Sand Volumes but Tighter Margins
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
Source Energy Services reported record 2025 sand sales volumes of 3.7 million metric tonnes and total revenue of $700.3 million, up 4% year over year, driven by a rebound in customer activity and strong demand despite mid‑year uncertainty. N...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.