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Trican Well (TSE:TCW)
:TCW

Trican Well Service (TCW) AI Stock Analysis

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Trican Well Service

(OTC:TCW)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$5.00
▲(8.23%Upside)
Trican Well Service's strong financial foundation and attractive valuation are key strengths, supporting the stock's potential for growth. Technical indicators present a mixed picture, while challenges with pricing pressures and decreased EBITDA are notable. The company's strategic initiatives and shareholder support further bolster its position.
Positive Factors
Customer Base
Trican Well maintains one of the best customer lists in Canada, which should allow for stability in results next year.
Dividends
The company raised its quarterly dividend by 11%, reflecting an annualized yield of more than 4%.
Share Buyback
The company has repurchased 3.9 million shares, equating to about 20% of the current buyback program.
Negative Factors
Growth Prospects
The lack of growth into 2025 combined with TCW's relatively expensive valuation causes a more neutral approach to the shares.

Trican Well Service (TCW) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Trican Well Service Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrican Well Service Ltd. is a Canadian-based oilfield services company that provides a comprehensive range of specialized products, equipment, and services primarily to the oil and gas industry. Operating mainly in Canada, Trican's core services include hydraulic fracturing, cementing, and coiled tubing. The company is dedicated to delivering high-quality, efficient, and environmentally responsible services to enhance the productivity and operational effectiveness of its clients' wells.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrican Well Service generates revenue primarily through its service offerings to oil and gas exploration and production companies. The company's key revenue streams include hydraulic fracturing services, which help increase the extraction of oil and natural gas from wells; cementing services, essential for securing and isolating wellbore zones; and coiled tubing services, used for various well intervention and maintenance activities. Trican's earnings are significantly influenced by the levels of oil and gas exploration and production activities, which in turn depend on factors such as global oil prices and demand. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with major oil and gas companies, which provide a steady flow of service requests and long-term business stability.

Trican Well Service Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 9.90%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights a strong performance in certain divisions like cementing and coil, and a significant return of capital through share buybacks. However, the company faced challenges with decreased EBITDA compared to the previous year, pricing pressures, and new tariffs affecting costs. The sentiment is balanced, with both notable achievements and significant challenges present.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Earnings and Cash Flow
Trican generated positive earnings of CAD31.9 million in the quarter, translating to $0.17 per share, and free cash flow of CAD43 million.
Strong Cementing Division Performance
The cementing division maintained high utilization and market share, particularly in technical plays like the Duvernay, where it has a 75% market share.
Coil Division Revenue Record
Q1 was the largest revenue quarter for the coil division with utilization over 70% and downtime of only 1.6%.
Share Buyback Program
Repurchased and canceled 2.5 million shares in Q1, 6.6 million subsequent to Q1, totaling 11.7 million shares, representing 61% of the 2024-'25 NCIB program.
Technological Advancements
Ongoing investments in electrification of equipment and technology modernization, with a capital budget of CAD70.2 million for maintenance and growth initiatives.
Negative Updates
Decreased EBITDA and Revenue
Revenue for the quarter was CAD259.1 million with adjusted EBITDA of CAD61.3 million, down from CAD72.8 million in Q1 2024, due to competitive pricing and inflationary pressures.
Pricing Pressure and Inflation
Experienced pricing pressure and inflationary cost pressures, affecting margins and revenue, compounded by foreign exchange fluctuations and rail surcharges.
Impact of Tariffs
New Canadian tariffs on sand are affecting costs, modeling CAD10 per tonne increase, impacting logistics and profitability.
Company Guidance
During the Trican Well Service's First Quarter 2025 earnings call, guidance was provided highlighting several key financial metrics. The company reported revenue of CAD259.1 million and an adjusted EBITDA of CAD61.3 million, which represents 24% of revenues, a decline from the CAD72.8 million or 27% of revenues in Q1 2024. Free cash flow for the quarter was CAD43 million, while capital expenditures totaled CAD12.5 million, divided between CAD8.8 million for maintenance and CAD3.7 million for upgrades. The capital budget for 2025 is set at CAD70.2 million, focusing on maintenance and growth initiatives. Trican aims for a 20% return on invested capital, although current pricing pressures have slightly lowered margins. The company repurchased and canceled 2.5 million shares under its NCIB program and declared a CAD0.05 per share dividend. Trican remains optimistic about the year, maintaining a solid balance sheet with CAD159 million in working capital and positive earnings of CAD31.9 million or CAD0.17 per share.

Trican Well Service Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trican Well Service is financially sound with strong profitability, as evidenced by a robust EBITDA margin of 22.99% and a healthy return on equity of 22.42%. However, the slight dip in net profit margin and free cash flow requires attention.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Trican Well Service exhibited a solid financial performance with a gross profit margin of 19.38% and an EBIT margin of 15.14% for 2024. The company demonstrated a steady revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, although the net profit margin slightly declined to 11.16%, suggesting some cost pressures. Despite these challenges, the EBITDA margin remained robust at 22.99%, indicating strong operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, reflecting prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio stands at 71.50%, showcasing a solid equity base. Return on equity is healthy at 22.42%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis highlights a decrease in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, with free cash flow to net income ratio at 0.73. This suggests efficient conversion of income into cash flow despite the decline. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.41, indicating strong cash generation capabilities.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
980.84M972.68M866.29M562.48M397.02M
Gross Profit
190.00M201.15M150.34M43.29M-40.57M
EBIT
148.51M161.62M110.18M14.22M-70.77M
EBITDA
225.54M238.76M190.68M101.76M-144.44M
Net Income Common Stockholders
109.48M121.01M79.22M12.06M-233.32M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
26.28M88.75M58.11M29.51M22.61M
Total Assets
683.07M710.44M671.12M577.84M563.21M
Total Debt
20.01M18.14M42.39M10.32M13.77M
Net Debt
-6.27M-70.61M-15.72M-19.19M-8.84M
Total Liabilities
194.68M193.38M166.45M88.44M70.94M
Stockholders Equity
488.39M517.07M504.67M489.40M492.27M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
79.78M169.17M48.61M20.21M57.98M
Operating Cash Flow
154.84M248.46M152.23M74.10M70.77M
Investing Cash Flow
-75.92M-75.09M-85.80M-39.35M13.26M
Financing Cash Flow
-141.39M-142.73M-37.83M-27.84M-68.67M

Trican Well Service Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4.62
Price Trends
50DMA
4.27
Positive
100DMA
4.44
Positive
200DMA
4.58
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
64.90
Neutral
STOCH
88.50
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TCW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.42, above the 50-day MA of 4.27, and above the 200-day MA of 4.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TCW.

Trican Well Service Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSTOT
80
Outperform
C$408.44M6.6011.38%3.67%11.02%102.23%
TSCEU
76
Outperform
$1.51B8.8123.66%2.38%8.79%31.76%
TSTCW
75
Outperform
C$861.63M8.9819.44%4.22%2.15%-5.97%
TSEFX
71
Outperform
C$1.32B12.977.03%1.41%1.22%
TSCFW
65
Neutral
C$290.31M16.533.00%-5.50%-88.55%
64
Neutral
C$280.35M151.92-3.90%-5.98%-121.37%
58
Neutral
$7.47B3.50-4.45%10.05%0.81%-49.42%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TCW
Trican Well Service
4.65
0.29
6.72%
TSE:CEU
CES Energy Solutions
6.92
0.02
0.26%
TSE:EFX
Enerflex
10.78
4.24
64.83%
TSE:TOT
Total Energy Services
10.99
1.94
21.44%
TSE:STEP
STEP Energy Services
3.80
-0.20
-5.00%
TSE:CFW
Calfrac Well Services
3.50
-0.45
-11.39%

Trican Well Service Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Trican Well Service Announces 2025 Annual Meeting Results
Positive
May 13, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. announced the results of its 2025 annual and special meeting, where six directors were elected to serve until the next meeting. Shareholders approved the appointment of KPMG LLP as auditors and endorsed the company’s executive compensation approach and stock option plan, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TCW) stock is a Buy with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trican Well Service stock, see the TSE:TCW Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trican Well Service Reports Q1 2025 Results Amid Competitive Pressures
Neutral
May 13, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. reported a decrease in its first-quarter 2025 financial results compared to the previous year, primarily due to a competitive pricing environment and inflationary cost pressures. Despite the lower revenue and profits, the company maintained a strong balance sheet with positive working capital, allowing for continued shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks. Trican’s ongoing commitment to its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) program and increased quarterly dividend reflects its strategic focus on returning capital to shareholders, while maintaining financial flexibility for future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TCW) stock is a Buy with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trican Well Service stock, see the TSE:TCW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trican Well Service to Release Q1 2025 Results and Host Conference Call
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. announced that it will release its First Quarter 2025 financial results on May 12, 2025, after the market closes. The company will hold a conference call on May 13, 2025, to discuss these results, providing stakeholders with insights into its financial performance and operational strategies.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.