Trican Well Service (TSE:TCW)
TSX:TCW
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Trican Well Service (TCW) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TCW

Trican Well Service

(TSX:TCW)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(8.30% Upside)
Trican Well Service's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook. The company's low valuation metrics and attractive dividend yield further enhance its appeal. However, bearish technical indicators and external challenges such as oil price volatility slightly temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant year-over-year revenue growth indicates strong demand for Trican's services, reinforcing its market position and potential for sustained business expansion.
Cash Generation
Robust free cash flow generation enhances Trican's financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns, supporting long-term growth.
Technological Advancements
Investing in natural gas solutions aligns with industry trends towards sustainability, potentially reducing costs and enhancing competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
Oil Price Volatility
Volatility in oil prices can disrupt project timelines and revenue streams, posing a risk to Trican's financial performance and planning.
Acquisition Costs
Acquisition-related expenses can strain financial resources and impact profitability, necessitating careful integration and cost management strategies.
Pricing Pressure
Competitive pricing pressures can erode margins and limit pricing power, challenging Trican's ability to maintain profitability in a competitive market.

Trican Well Service (TCW) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Trican Well Service Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrican Well Service Ltd., an equipment services company, provides various specialized products, equipment, services, and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation, and reworking of oil and gas wells in Canada. The company offers cementing solutions, including pre-flushes and spacers, cement plugs, lost circulation, cement design, and laboratory solutions, as well as surface, intermediate, production, liner, horizontal, and remedial/squeeze cementing services; and cement pumpers, bulk equipment, and cement auxiliary equipment. It also provides reservoir solutions, such as exploration, production analysis, and simulation and modeling services; and coiled tubing solutions comprising coiled tubing fracturing and acidizing, specially designed tools, in-house engineering, well cleanouts, milling, high pressure jetting, e-coil, nitrogen gas lifting, and production enhancement, as well as equipment and tools. In addition, the company offers acidizing and production enhancement services that include production and injection well enhancement services, and equipment; well intervention tools; and fracturing solutions and equipment. Trican Well Service Ltd. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrican Well Service generates revenue primarily through its pressure pumping services, which include hydraulic fracturing and cementing. The company charges clients based on the volume of services provided and the complexity of the operations performed. Key revenue streams include contracts with oil and gas exploration and production companies, which often involve multi-year agreements that provide steady cash flow. Additionally, TCW benefits from partnerships with major energy firms, allowing it to secure substantial projects and maintain a competitive edge in the market. Fluctuations in oil and gas prices, as well as demand for energy services, significantly influence the company's earnings, making it sensitive to market conditions.

Trican Well Service Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a generally positive outlook with strong revenue and earnings growth, successful cash flow management, and strategic advancements in technology. Despite some challenges such as oil price volatility and acquisition costs, the company's market position and forward-looking strategies suggest resilience and potential for further growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Trican's Q3 2025 revenue increased to $300.6 million from $221.6 million in Q3 2024. Adjusted EBITDAS rose to $66.9 million from $53.1 million, and the company generated positive earnings of $28.9 million.
Free Cash Flow and Share Repurchase
Trican generated $35.4 million in free cash flow during Q3 2025 and repurchased 13.2 million shares under its NCIB program, which is now renewed to purchase up to 18.4 million shares.
Technology and Environmental Commitment
Trican is focusing on 100% natural gas solutions for its operations, expecting to add a natural gas fleet by mid-2026, and is committed to technological advancements in the industry.
Strong Market Position
Trican maintains significant market share in key areas like Duvernay and Montney, with high customer retention and a focus on expanding logistics capabilities for sand distribution.
Negative Updates
Impact of Oil Price Volatility
Oil pricing was hit hard in September 2025, causing customers to delay or cancel projects, impacting Trican's potential performance for the quarter.
Iron Horse Acquisition Costs
Trican incurred $2.5 million in transaction costs related to the acquisition of Iron Horse, impacting financial results for Q3 2025.
Pricing Pressure and Rig Count Decline
There is ongoing pricing pressure due to competitors and a slight decline in rig count from last year, affecting overall industry dynamics.
Company Guidance
During the Trican Well Service Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial results despite challenges in commodity pricing. Revenues for the quarter were $300.6 million, up from $221.6 million in Q3 2024, while adjusted EBITDA was $59.5 million, representing 20% of revenue, compared to $50.2 million or 23% of revenue the previous year. The acquisition of Iron Horse contributed to these results, although $2.5 million in transaction costs were expensed. The company generated positive earnings of $28.9 million, or $0.15 per share, on both basic and fully diluted bases, and free cash flows of $35.4 million. CapEx for the quarter was $18.9 million, with $13.5 million allocated to maintenance capital and $5.4 million to upgrade capital, primarily for electrification projects. Trican's net debt stood at $130.6 million as of September 30, primarily due to the Iron Horse acquisition. The company also repurchased 100,000 shares and announced a dividend of $0.055 per share, totaling approximately $11.7 million in payments to shareholders. Looking ahead, Trican is optimistic about Q4 2025 and 2026, citing expected improvements in gas prices and ongoing technological advancements, including a focus on 100% natural gas solutions.

Trican Well Service Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trican Well Service exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability. The company benefits from a stable balance sheet with low leverage and impressive cash flow metrics, highlighting efficient cash management. Minor fluctuations in margins and equity do not significantly detract from the overall solid financial health.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Trican Well Service has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in the TTM period with a 20.5% increase. The company maintains healthy margins with a gross profit margin of 19.2% and a net profit margin of 10.7% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 14.3% and 22.2%, respectively. These figures indicate solid profitability and operational efficiency, although there is a slight decline in margins compared to previous years.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.041, indicating minimal leverage. Return on equity is strong at 21.2%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 74.5%, highlighting a solid equity base. However, the slight decrease in stockholders' equity over time suggests a need for careful management of equity resources.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 33.7% in the TTM, indicating enhanced cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.04 suggests strong cash flow relative to net income, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.71 reflects efficient cash conversion. These metrics underscore the company's strong cash flow position, although fluctuations in free cash flow growth in previous years warrant attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue969.97M980.84M972.68M866.29M562.48M397.02M
Gross Profit185.93M190.00M201.15M150.34M43.29M-40.57M
EBITDA215.09M225.54M238.76M190.68M101.76M-144.44M
Net Income103.43M109.48M121.01M79.22M12.06M-233.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets639.34M683.07M710.44M671.12M577.84M563.21M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments36.34M26.28M88.75M58.11M29.51M22.61M
Total Debt19.68M20.01M18.14M42.39M10.32M13.77M
Total Liabilities162.84M194.68M193.38M166.45M88.44M70.94M
Stockholders Equity476.50M488.39M517.07M504.67M489.40M492.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow154.38M79.78M169.17M48.61M20.21M57.98M
Operating Cash Flow216.99M154.84M248.46M152.23M74.10M70.77M
Investing Cash Flow-76.56M-75.92M-75.09M-85.80M-39.35M13.26M
Financing Cash Flow-140.07M-141.39M-142.73M-37.83M-27.84M-68.67M

Trican Well Service Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.54
Price Trends
50DMA
5.75
Negative
100DMA
5.64
Negative
200DMA
4.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.09
Negative
RSI
49.07
Neutral
STOCH
55.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TCW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.49, below the 50-day MA of 5.75, and above the 200-day MA of 4.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TCW.

Trican Well Service Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$2.37B13.8622.50%1.42%5.79%-5.08%
72
Outperform
$1.12B9.2618.06%3.80%9.24%6.35%
71
Outperform
C$2.17B12.2512.48%0.80%5.92%
69
Neutral
C$525.44M8.7610.51%2.76%15.58%47.55%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
58
Neutral
C$399.37M-19.59-1.94%-9.19%-119.27%
55
Neutral
C$269.69M27.353.20%-8.13%-28.00%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TCW
Trican Well Service
5.54
0.88
19.01%
TSE:CEU
CES Energy Solutions
11.09
2.31
26.27%
TSE:CFW
Calfrac Well Services
3.12
-0.75
-19.38%
TSE:EFX
Enerflex
18.66
6.44
52.70%
TSE:TOT
Total Energy Services
14.13
2.82
24.93%
TSE:STEP
STEP Energy Services
5.47
0.43
8.53%

Trican Well Service Corporate Events

Trican Well Service Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Oct 30, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd., headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, is a leading provider of oil and natural gas well servicing equipment and solutions, specializing in hydraulic fracturing, cementing, coiled tubing, nitrogen services, and chemical sales within the energy sector.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Trican Well Service Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Oct 28, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. reported strong third-quarter results for 2025, with revenue increasing to $300.6 million compared to the previous year, driven by an acquisition and increased operational activity despite weak commodity prices. The company also announced the completion of its strategic acquisition of Iron Horse Coiled Tubing Inc., which is expected to bolster its service offerings and market position in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Additionally, Trican continues its return of capital strategy through its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) program, purchasing and canceling a significant number of shares, and has renewed the program for another year.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TCW) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trican Well Service stock, see the TSE:TCW Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Trican Well Service to Announce Q3 2025 Results
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. has announced that it will release its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on October 28, 2025, after the market closes. The company will hold a conference call on October 29, 2025, to discuss these results, which could provide insights into its operational performance and market positioning within the oil and gas industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TCW) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trican Well Service stock, see the TSE:TCW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Trican Well Service Renews Share Buyback Program for 2025-2026
Positive
Oct 1, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. has announced the renewal of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) program, allowing the company to repurchase up to 18,405,613 common shares, representing 10% of its public float, between October 2025 and October 2026. This move underscores Trican’s commitment to providing shareholder returns and maintaining a prudent capital structure, as the company has repurchased a significant portion of its shares since 2017, reflecting its strategic focus on shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TCW) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trican Well Service stock, see the TSE:TCW Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Trican Completes Acquisition of Iron Horse Energy Services
Positive
Aug 27, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. has completed the acquisition of Iron Horse Energy Services, a provider of fracturing and coiled tubing services in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. This acquisition, valued at approximately $77.35 million in cash and 33.76 million Trican shares, strengthens Trican’s market position and adds Iron Horse’s CEO, Tom Coolen, to its Board of Directors, signaling strategic growth and expansion in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TCW) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trican Well Service stock, see the TSE:TCW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Trican Well Service Clears Regulatory Hurdle for Iron Horse Acquisition
Positive
Aug 20, 2025

Trican Well Service Ltd. has received clearance from the Competition Bureau for its acquisition of Iron Horse Energy Services, a provider of fracturing and coiled tubing services in key Canadian plays. This acquisition, valued at approximately $77.35 million in cash and 33.76 million Trican shares, is expected to enhance Trican’s growth strategy and service offerings in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, with the anticipated closing date around August 27, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TCW) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trican Well Service stock, see the TSE:TCW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025