Trican Well Service (TSE:TCW)
TSX:TCW
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Trican Well Service
(TSX:TCW)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
C$9.00
▲(40.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (solid margins, low leverage, and improving free cash flow) and supportive technicals with price above major moving averages. Valuation is reasonable with a moderate P/E and a ~2.7% yield, while the earnings call reinforces strength in recent results and capital returns but flags near-term risks from pricing pressure, commodity-sensitive demand (Iron Horse), and logistics capacity constraints.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Revenue Momentum
Sustained margins and recurring revenue growth signal durable operating strength. Above-industry gross and EBIT margins give the company buffer vs cyclical revenue swings, supporting reinvestment in fleet and consistent operating cash flow that underpins long-term competitiveness.
Negative Factors
Commodity Sensitivity (Iron Horse)
Heavy exposure of the Iron Horse business to oil price cycles creates structural volatility in utilization and margins. If oil-focused customers delay projects, revenue and fleet utilization can decline materially, lengthening payback on acquisition-related investments and capex.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & Revenue Momentum
Sustained margins and recurring revenue growth signal durable operating strength. Above-industry gross and EBIT margins give the company buffer vs cyclical revenue swings, supporting reinvestment in fleet and consistent operating cash flow that underpins long-term competitiveness.
Read all positive factors
Trican Well Service (TCW) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.69B
Dividend Yield3.57%
Average Volume (3M)612.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth20.60%
EPS Growth6.72%
CountryCA
Employees1,200
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding210,487,550
10 Day Avg. Volume505,243
30 Day Avg. Volume612,738
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.88
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio10.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$8.33Price Target Upside30.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.29B
Trican Well Service Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trican Well Service Ltd., an equipment services company, provides various specialized products, equipment, services, and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation, and reworking of oil and gas wells in Canada. The company offers ...
How the Company Makes Money
TCW makes money primarily by contracting oil and gas operators to perform specific wellsite service jobs and by charging for the equipment, crews, and consumables required to complete that work. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Hydraulic...
Trican Well Service Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveys a positive operational and financial picture: material year-over-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, positive net earnings and strong free cash flow, low leverage, successful integration of Iron Horse, and clear investments in technology (natural gas and electric fleets) and logistics that position the company for growth in a strengthening gas market. Near-term headwinds include oil-driven softness impacting the Iron Horse business, pricing pressure in Q4, weather/seasonality effects, logistics capacity constraints (drivers/equipment), and uncertainty around wet-sand trials. Management expects net debt to trend down, to continue a balanced capital return strategy (dividends and NCIB), and to invest selectively in natural-gas/electric assets and potential M&A as opportunities emerge.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $322.7 million vs. $275.5 million in Q4 2024, an increase of $47.2 million or +17.1% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Pressure Impacting Oil-Focused Operations
Oil pricing weakened in H2 2025 and significantly impacted Iron Horse activity in Q4 as oil-focused customers delayed or shelved projects; management noted Iron Horse workload is highly elastic to oil prices and may not return to previous outlook timing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $322.7 million vs. $275.5 million in Q4 2024, an increase of $47.2 million or +17.1% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was conservative and steady: Q1 is expected to be in line with consensus and net debt should trend downward from the December 31 position of $79.9 million (loans and borrowings $92.4m, cash $12.5m) with leverage just under one‑third of a turn on trailing‑12 month EBITDAS after generating Q4 free cash flow of $46.6m. The 2026 capital program is about $120m (roughly 50% expansion ≈ $60m, with ~ $40m targeted to the natural‑gas frac fleet), they expect first 3520 100% natural‑gas pumpers in Q2 and a full 10‑pumper natural‑gas spread by early fall (natural‑gas semis to follow later), and Q4 CapEx was $15.1m (maintenance $12.8m, upgrade $2.8m). Return‑of‑capital will be a mix of dividends and NCIBs with roughly 50% of free cash flow expected to be returned (dividend declared $0.055/share ≈ $11.5m payable Mar 31, 2026; Q4 buybacks 1.4m shares, 2025 total 12.1m shares repurchased at ~$4.35 average = 6.4% of beginning shares, plus ~300k repurchased post‑Q4), and operating targets are supported by Q4 results of revenue $322.7m, adjusted EBITDA $73.4m (23% of revenue), adjusted EBITDAS $75.3m (23%), and net earnings $31.9m or $0.15/share, while industry trends (sand pumped ~8.5m tonnes in 2025, forecast >12m by 2030) and logistics constraints were noted as growth drivers and limits.Trican Well Service Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.17B | 1.10B | 980.84M | 972.68M | 866.29M | 562.48M |
| Gross Profit | 225.22M | 212.86M | 190.00M | 201.15M | 150.34M | 43.29M |
| EBITDA | 265.55M | 253.64M | 225.54M | 238.76M | 190.68M | 101.76M |
| Net Income | 110.60M | 112.19M | 109.48M | 121.01M | 79.22M | 12.06M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 944.85M | 1.01B | 683.07M | 710.44M | 671.12M | 577.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.42M | 12.46M | 26.28M | 88.75M | 58.11M | 29.51M |
| Total Debt | 53.60M | 134.19M | 20.01M | 18.14M | 42.39M | 10.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 239.60M | 317.87M | 194.68M | 193.38M | 166.45M | 88.44M |
| Stockholders Equity | 705.25M | 695.85M | 488.39M | 517.07M | 504.67M | 489.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 195.54M | 104.69M | 79.78M | 169.17M | 48.61M | 20.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.43M | 167.58M | 154.84M | 248.46M | 152.23M | 74.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -133.42M | -126.10M | -75.92M | -75.09M | -85.80M | -39.35M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -133.72M | -55.29M | -141.39M | -142.73M | -37.83M | -27.84M |
Trican Well Service Technical Analysis
Positive
6.39
Price Trends
7.20
Positive
6.89
Positive
6.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
68.99
Neutral
84.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TCW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.37, below the 50-day MA of 7.20, and above the 200-day MA of 6.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TCW.
Trican Well Service Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | C$1.69B | 12.71 | 17.25% | 3.57% | 20.60% | 6.72% | |
82 Outperform | C$992.56M | 8.57 | 12.57% | 2.57% | 18.21% | 29.33% | |
72 Outperform | C$4.66B | 20.96 | 7.72% | 0.74% | 11.15% | 10.92% | |
66 Neutral | C$613.21M | 8.66 | 6.49% | ― | -17.68% | 123.13% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
52 Neutral | C$570.63M | 23.34 | 7.69% | 2.56% | 4.39% | -20.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:TCW
Trican Well Service
8.06
3.98
97.40%
TSE:NOA
North American Construction Group
19.90
-3.22
-13.92%
TSE:CFW
Calfrac Well Services
6.11
2.99
96.08%
TSE:EFX
Enerflex
37.45
27.99
296.00%
TSE:TOT
Total Energy Services
26.42
16.73
172.54%
Trican Well Service Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trican Well Service Sets Date for Q1 2026 Results and Earnings Call
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Trican Well Service Ltd. plans to release its first quarter 2026 financial results on May 11, 2026, after markets close. The company will follow with an earnings conference call and webcast on May 12, offering investors and analysts an opportunity...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trican Reschedules Q4 2025 Earnings Call After Technical Issues
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Trican Well Service Ltd. has rescheduled its Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings results conference call to Friday, February 20, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. MT, citing technical difficulties with the previously planned event. The company confirmed that its quart...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Trican Boosts 2025 Results, Hikes Dividend and Extends Aggressive Buyback Plan
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Trican reported stronger 2025 financial results, with revenue rising 12% to $1.10 billion and higher adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and profit compared with 2024 as activity increased and the Iron Horse acquisition contributed to growth. The com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.