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GreenFirst Forest Products (TSE:GFP)
TSX:GFP
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GreenFirst Forest Products
(TSX:GFP)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
C$3.50
▲(2.94%Upside)
GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$76.17M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-23.94%
EPS Growth24.31%
CountryCA
Employees750
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength71
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding22,602,750
10 Day Avg. Volume2,909
30 Day Avg. Volume2,852
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-1.82
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.50Price Target Upside2.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreenFirst Forest Products Inc. manufactures and markets forest products in Canada, and the United States. It operates in two segments, Forest Products and Paper Products. The Forest Products segment manufactures and markets a range of spruce-pine-fir lumber, wood chips, and other by-products for use in residential and multi-family homes, light industrial and commercial facilities, and the home repair and remodel markets. The Paper Products segment manufactures and markets paper products that are used to print newspapers, advertising materials, food service bags, and other publications. The company was formerly known as Itasca Capital Ltd. and changed its name to GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. in January 2021. GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreenFirst Forest Products makes money through the sale of its wood-based products, primarily lumber and paper. The company's revenue model is centered around harvesting timber from responsibly managed forests, processing it into various products, and distributing these goods to industrial and commercial customers. Key revenue streams include the construction industry, which demands high volumes of lumber, and the packaging and printing sectors, which utilize paper products. Additionally, GFP engages in partnerships and contracts with distributors and retailers to expand its market reach and enhance its sales channels. The company's focus on sustainability and efficient production processes also helps in optimizing costs and maintaining competitive pricing in the market.
GreenFirst Forest Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -14.89%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
GreenFirst showed a notable financial recovery with positive EBITDA and net income, driven largely by increased lumber prices and operational improvements. However, the company faced significant challenges with production and shipment due to tariff uncertainties and weather disruptions, alongside concerns about potential duty increases. While there are positive elements, such as strong performance in the repair and remodeling market, the overall sentiment is balanced by the significant challenges noted.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Financial Turnaround
GreenFirst reported a positive EBITDA of $5.1 million and a net income of $920,000 for Q1 2025, a significant improvement from Q4 2024, where they had a negative EBITDA of $913,000 and a net loss of $26.6 million.
Lumber Price Increase
The average realized lumber selling price increased from $680 in Q4 2024 to $729 in Q1 2025, contributing to stronger market pricing conditions during the quarter.
Operational Improvements
GreenFirst implemented operational changes that improved the overall grade of wood produced, driving the mill net approximately $30 per thousand higher overall.
Continued Strong Performance in Repair and Remodeling Market
The repair and remodeling market segment remained strong, driven by factors such as increased home equity and aging housing stock.
SG&A Reduction
Selling, General, and Administrative expenses were reduced to $2.6 million in Q1 2025 from $2.8 million in Q4 2024.
Negative Updates
Production and Shipment Challenges
Production and shipment volumes were lower than expected due to uncertainty around tariffs and weather-related disruptions, with Q1 production at 101 million FBM compared to 103 million in Q4 2024.
Tariff Uncertainty Impact
Uncertainty around a potential 25% tariff on Canadian lumber by the U.S. negatively impacted sales volume, creating negative buyer sentiment.
Inventory Increase
Inventory levels ended higher than expected due to economic uncertainty and tariff impacts, with finished goods inventory increasing.
Potential Duty Increase
The combined duty rate is expected to increase from 14.4% to 34.45% starting late Q3, which may impact end consumers and the company's cost structure.
Softening Lumber Demand
Despite an initial surge, demand began to soften, and prices started to decline towards the end of Q1 2025.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, GreenFirst Forest Products reported a positive EBITDA of $5.1 million and a net income of $920,000, marking a significant improvement from the previous quarter's negative EBITDA of $913,000 and a net loss of $26.6 million. This turnaround was largely attributed to higher lumber prices, although shipment and production were slightly below expectations due to tariff uncertainties and weather disruptions in Northern Ontario. The company faced a potential 25% tariff on Canadian lumber, impacting buyer sentiment and sales volume, but ultimately, the tariff was not implemented. Despite these challenges, GreenFirst achieved a production level of 101 million FBM, slightly lower than the 103 million FBM in Q4 2024, and ended the quarter with higher inventory levels due to economic uncertainties. The company maintained SG&A expenses at $29 per thousand, well below the target of $40 per thousand, and implemented a $20 million capital investment focused on strategic projects. GreenFirst also managed to improve the average realized lumber selling price from $680 in Q4 2024 to $729 in Q1 2025, despite a 3% decrease in revenue and a 4% reduction in sales volume.GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GreenFirst Forest Products faces financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and cash flow constraints. Despite manageable debt levels, the shrinking asset base and negative return on equity indicate inefficiencies.Income Statement
GreenFirst Forest Products has seen declining revenue over the past two years, with a significant drop from 2023 to 2024. The company’s gross profit margin improved in 2024 but remains low. Net profit margins have been negative, with losses in the last two years indicating profitability challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been negative, reflecting operational difficulties.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, indicating manageable leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased, reflecting a shrinking asset base. Return on equity is negative, pointing to inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a solid equity base compared to its liabilities.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
GreenFirst Forest Products has experienced negative free cash flow in recent years, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating limited cash generation relative to earnings.35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 215.66M | 284.74M | 409.62M | 446.26M | 190.48M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 15.32M | 9.04M | -12.45M | 43.08M | 28.25M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 7.48M | 3.77M | -30.89M | 29.80M | 264.00K | 0.00 |
| Net Income | -18.27M | -47.07M | -47.02M | -4.13M | -9.62M | -2.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 243.52M | 220.47M | 277.94M | 371.50M | 415.94M | 17.31M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.46M | 27.76M | 2.42M | 25.35M | 36.17M | 5.40M |
| Total Debt | 29.80M | 23.02M | 25.63M | 57.70M | 125.19M | 3.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 96.13M | 74.85M | 92.71M | 147.04M | 186.78M | 5.14M |
| Stockholders Equity | 147.39M | 145.62M | 185.24M | 224.46M | 229.16M | 12.18M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -40.40M | -32.41M | -82.21M | 24.26M | -2.16M | -13.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -28.05M | -23.99M | -58.03M | 57.86M | 3.94M | -1.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 15.22M | 19.67M | 67.36M | 15.06M | -251.65M | -10.87M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.09M | 29.65M | -32.26M | -83.75M | 278.61M | 4.84M |
GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis
Negative
3.40
Price Trends
3.83
Negative
3.97
Negative
4.93
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
35.74
Neutral
7.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.67, below the 50-day MA of 3.83, and below the 200-day MA of 4.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFP.
GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (43)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$323.58M | 16.31 | 5.85% | 6.44% | 12.30% | -36.60% | |
64 Neutral | C$103.61M | 9.37 | 5.72% | 4.05% | 0.62% | -23.94% | |
52 Neutral | C$128.28M | ― | -1.51% | ― | 9.47% | 85.29% | |
51 Neutral | C$47.62M | ― | -59.20% | ― | -9.60% | -92.59% | |
49 Neutral | C$13.37M | ― | -24.89% | ― | -7.32% | 10.08% | |
46 Neutral | $76.17M | ― | -16.05% | ― | -23.94% | 24.31% | |
43 Neutral | AU$1.42B | -6.27 | -40.74% | 4.05% | -3.45% | -41.76% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
3.40
-0.79
-18.94%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
17.90
2.00
12.58%
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.32
-0.08
-20.00%
TSE:CFX
Canfor Pulp Products
0.70
-0.36
-33.96%
TSE:GDL
Goodfellow
12.37
-1.23
-9.04%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
0.40
-0.05
-11.11%
GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GreenFirst Forest Products Reports Positive Q1 2025 Results Amid Market Challenges
Positive
May 14, 2025
GreenFirst Forest Products reported a positive financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with a net income of $0.9 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $5.1 million, marking a significant improvement from the previous quarter’s losses. Despite economic uncertainty and potential tariffs on lumber exports to the U.S., the company benefited from strong lumber prices, which offset lower sales volumes due to market conditions and weather-related disruptions. The company remains focused on disciplined capital expenditures and maintaining a strong balance sheet to handle market volatility.
Financial Disclosures
GreenFirst Forest Products to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 7, 2025
GreenFirst Forest Products announced it will host a conference call to discuss its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 14, 2025. The results will be released after trading on May 13, 2025, and stakeholders can access the webcast and presentation slides on the company’s website. This announcement highlights GreenFirst’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its investors, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.
Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
GreenFirst Forest Products Announces AGM Voting Results
Positive
May 2, 2025
GreenFirst Forest Products announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, where all nominees for the Board of Directors were elected with high approval rates. Shareholders also approved the setting of the number of directors at six and the appointment of the auditor, reflecting strong support for the company’s governance and operational strategies.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.