GreenFirst Forest Products (TSE:GFP)
TSX:GFP
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GreenFirst Forest Products
(TSX:GFP)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (deep losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and rising leverage). Technicals are mildly bearish with the price below key moving averages. The earnings call adds some offset from operational ramp progress and improved QoQ metrics, but guidance remains cautious and the business is still loss-making; valuation is also constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Capacity & quality gains from Chapleau ramp
Completion and ramp of the Chapleau saw line and associated projects materially raise productive capacity, improve lumber recovery and grade, and lower per-unit costs. Sustained higher utilization supports durable margin improvement potential and better product mix once market demand normalizes.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative profitability and cash burn
Deep, sustained losses and multi-year negative operating and free cash flow indicate the core business is not currently self-funding. Continued cash burn erodes flexibility, forces dependence on external financing, and raises risk of asset sales or severe cost cuts if cyclical demand and pricing fail to improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capacity & quality gains from Chapleau ramp
Completion and ramp of the Chapleau saw line and associated projects materially raise productive capacity, improve lumber recovery and grade, and lower per-unit costs. Sustained higher utilization supports durable margin improvement potential and better product mix once market demand normalizes.
Read all positive factors
GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$51.15M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-4.76%
EPS Growth-203.50%
CountryCA
Employees750
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.28
Shares Outstanding23,146,973
10 Day Avg. Volume9,380
30 Day Avg. Volume8,815
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.13
P/FCF Ratio-1.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) is a leading Canadian forest products company specializing in the sustainable production and distribution of lumber and wood-based products. Operating within the forestry and manufacturing sectors, GFP focuses on d...
How the Company Makes Money
GreenFirst makes money primarily by manufacturing wood products (mainly softwood lumber) and selling them to customers. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of lumber produced at its mills, where earnings are driven by shipment volumes and prevaili...
GreenFirst Forest Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed results: the company delivered noteworthy operational progress (Chapleau saw line ramp, completed planer and cogeneration projects, improved lumber quality), reduced some cost pressures (NRV and freight), and secured meaningful government financing to shore up liquidity. However, material negatives remain — revenues and shipments declined significantly, the company remains loss-making (negative EBITDA and operating loss), tariffs continue to materially impact costs, and working capital/ liquidity were strained. Early price recovery and housing indicators are positive, but the near-term outlook remains cautious.Positive Updates
Maintained Excellent Safety Performance
Company continued record safety results and strong safety culture in Q1, maintaining industry-leading safety metrics (no impairments related to safety reported).
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenue was $60.6 million in Q1 2026, down from $71.8 million in Q1 2025 (approx. -15.6% YoY) and down from $77.0 million in Q4 2025 (approx. -21.3% QoQ), driven primarily by lower shipment volumes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Maintained Excellent Safety Performance
Company continued record safety results and strong safety culture in Q1, maintaining industry-leading safety metrics (no impairments related to safety reported).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: GreenFirst expects only a modest lumber price increase in H2 2026 and remains cautious given high mortgage rates and geopolitical uncertainty, though a preliminary U.S. duty cut to ~25% from 35% (plus a 10% Section 232 tariff) in October would provide some relief. Operationally, the Chapleau saw line increased production +60% Jan–Mar, is operating at ~90% of target with full integration expected in Q2, and the planer and cogeneration projects are complete; the company has only partially advanced the previously announced $50M Phase 1 capex program. Q1 metrics: revenue $60.6M (lumber $55.4M, byproduct $5.2M), shipments 83 Mbf (production 90.6 Mbf), cost of sales $62.6M, NRV expense $1.8M (vs $10.2M in Q4), duties $12.1M, EBITDA -$15.1M (vs -$21.7M Q4, +$5.1M Q1 2025), operating loss $19M, cash $6.5M (from $3.5M), revolver availability $19.6M (from $39.4M), financing inflows $38.6M including a $30M BDC loan, working capital outflow $22.5M and operating cash impact ~ $12.7M, with continued focus on disciplined cash management.GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
16
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 292.34M | 303.55M | 282.85M | 409.62M | 446.26M | 190.48M |
| Gross Profit | -8.19M | 3.56M | 9.04M | -12.45M | 43.08M | 28.25M |
| EBITDA | -89.31M | -68.95M | 5.31M | -30.89M | 29.80M | 264.00K |
| Net Income | -120.44M | -98.84M | -47.07M | -47.02M | -4.13M | -9.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 219.53M | 189.82M | 220.47M | 277.94M | 371.50M | 415.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.52M | 3.48M | 27.76M | 2.42M | 25.35M | 36.17M |
| Total Debt | 73.96M | 35.12M | 21.72M | 25.63M | 57.70M | 125.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 179.31M | 129.20M | 74.85M | 92.71M | 147.04M | 186.78M |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.22M | 60.62M | 145.62M | 185.24M | 224.46M | 229.16M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -40.68M | -40.87M | -32.41M | -82.21M | 24.26M | -2.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -16.21M | -10.87M | -23.99M | -58.03M | 57.86M | 3.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.89M | -27.83M | 19.67M | 67.36M | 15.06M | -251.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 42.15M | 14.42M | 29.65M | -32.26M | -83.75M | 278.61M |
GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis
Negative
1.70
Price Trends
2.14
Negative
2.22
Negative
2.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
46.18
Neutral
65.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.14, below the 50-day MA of 2.14, and below the 200-day MA of 2.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFP.
GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | C$322.98M | 22.72 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -23.77% | 142.01% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | C$146.34M | -2.02 | -12.20% | ― | -15.14% | -1199.88% | |
47 Neutral | C$1.43B | -5.55 | -30.75% | ― | -0.13% | -33.42% | |
44 Neutral | C$51.15M | -0.58 | -73.85% | ― | -4.76% | -203.50% | |
44 Neutral | C$4.40M | -0.14 | -45.26% | ― | -8.88% | -84.89% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
2.21
-1.70
-43.48%
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-70.81%
TSE:WEF
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13.86
1.86
15.50%
TSE:CFP
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-6.02%
GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
GreenFirst Narrows Q4 Loss, Bolsters Liquidity Amid Tariffs and Weak Lumber Prices
Negative
Mar 26, 2026
GreenFirst Forest Products reported a Q4 2025 net loss from continuing operations of $32.8 million, narrowing from the prior quarter, with negative adjusted EBITDA as falling benchmark lumber prices and a new 10% U.S. tariff pressured results. The...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GreenFirst Schedules March 26 Call to Discuss Fiscal 2025 Results
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. will release its fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 financial results after markets close on March 25, 2026, and will host an earnings conference call the following morning. The webcast, replay, and presentation materia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.