GreenFirst Forest Products (TSE:GFP)
TSX:GFP
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GreenFirst Forest Products
(TSX:GFP)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/27/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorating profitability and sustained cash burn, with a weakened equity base despite only moderate leverage. Technical indicators also show weak momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call commentary provides some offset from cost-control and expected benefits from Chapleau upgrades and potential federal support, but near-term conditions remain challenging, and valuation support is limited due to losses and no stated dividend.
Positive Factors
Chapleau mill capital improvements
Major Chapleau upgrades (new saw line, planer, boiler and cogeneration work) are structured to lower per-unit production costs and increase throughput. With a sub-3-year payback, these capital improvements should sustainably raise mill margins and output efficiency once fully commissioned, improving structural profitability.
Negative Factors
Deteriorating profitability and negative margins
Negative gross profit and a TTM net margin around -31.7% indicate core operations are not covering direct production costs. This structural unprofitability weakens reinvestment capacity, erodes equity, and undermines long-term viability unless cost structure or pricing sustainably improves.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Chapleau mill capital improvements
Major Chapleau upgrades (new saw line, planer, boiler and cogeneration work) are structured to lower per-unit production costs and increase throughput. With a sub-3-year payback, these capital improvements should sustainably raise mill margins and output efficiency once fully commissioned, improving structural profitability.
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GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$47.22M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth-17.95%
EPS Growth-97.06%
CountryCA
Employees750
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.43
Shares Outstanding23,146,973
10 Day Avg. Volume9,380
30 Day Avg. Volume8,815
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.13
P/FCF Ratio-1.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) is a leading Canadian forest products company specializing in the sustainable production and distribution of lumber and wood-based products. Operating within the forestry and manufacturing sectors, GFP focuses on d...
How the Company Makes Money
GreenFirst makes money primarily by manufacturing wood products (mainly softwood lumber) and selling them to customers. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of lumber produced at its mills, where earnings are driven by shipment volumes and prevaili...
GreenFirst Forest Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 11, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a challenging quarter for GreenFirst, with significant negative impacts from increased duty rates, market headwinds, and production issues at Chapleau. However, there are positive developments such as federal support, SG&A cost control, and capital improvements at Chapleau expected to benefit future performance.Positive Updates
SG&A Expenses Below Target
Selling, General, and Administrative expenses remained on target at $32 per thousand board feet in Q3, below both last year and the year-to-date average.
Negative Updates
Negative EBITDA Due to Adjustments
The company reported a negative EBITDA of $47.2 million, primarily due to a $33.8 million duty adjustment, an $8.2 million NRV provision, and $4.6 million impact from downtime at Chapleau mill.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
SG&A Expenses Below Target
Selling, General, and Administrative expenses remained on target at $32 per thousand board feet in Q3, below both last year and the year-to-date average.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During GreenFirst's Q3 2025 earnings call, the company reported a negative EBITDA of $47.2 million, primarily due to a $33.8 million duty adjustment from 2023, an $8.2 million NRV provision as lumber prices dropped from $508 to $420 per thousand board feet, and a $4.6 million downtime cost at their Chapleau mill for a new saw line installation. These adjustments affected the cost of goods sold, but excluding them, the company would have approached breakeven EBITDA. Sales volume decreased to 93 million board feet from 109 million in Q2, partly due to the installation downtime and market hesitancy amid a duty rate increase to 35.16% and a new 10% tariff on U.S. exports. Despite these challenges, SG&A expenses were on target at $32 per thousand board feet, and the company saw an increase in excess liquidity from $22 million last year to $27 million. GreenFirst is optimistic about future cost improvements and revenue growth from the Chapleau upgrades, with full benefits expected by Q1 2026. The company is also exploring federal support programs to mitigate duty and tariff impacts.GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
16
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 303.55M | 282.85M | 409.62M | 446.26M | 190.48M |
| Gross Profit | 3.56M | 9.04M | -12.45M | 43.08M | 28.25M |
| EBITDA | -68.95M | 5.31M | -30.89M | 29.80M | 264.00K |
| Net Income | -98.84M | -47.07M | -47.02M | -4.13M | -9.62M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 189.82M | 220.47M | 277.94M | 371.50M | 415.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.48M | 27.76M | 2.42M | 25.35M | 36.17M |
| Total Debt | 35.12M | 21.72M | 25.63M | 57.70M | 125.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 129.20M | 74.85M | 92.71M | 147.04M | 186.78M |
| Stockholders Equity | 60.62M | 145.62M | 185.24M | 224.46M | 229.16M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -40.87M | -32.41M | -82.21M | 24.26M | -2.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -10.87M | -23.99M | -58.03M | 57.86M | 3.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.83M | 19.67M | 67.36M | 15.06M | -251.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.42M | 29.65M | -32.26M | -83.75M | 278.61M |
GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis
Negative
1.70
Price Trends
2.37
Negative
2.13
Negative
2.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
41.87
Neutral
21.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.24, below the 50-day MA of 2.37, and below the 200-day MA of 2.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFP.
GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$319.10M | 5.90 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -28.86% | -48.20% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
48 Neutral | C$1.65B | -1.73 | -27.04% | ― | 1.76% | 34.61% | |
47 Neutral | C$5.50M | -0.08 | -45.26% | ― | 10.33% | -52.20% | |
46 Neutral | C$156.37M | -1.45 | -12.20% | ― | 2.06% | -46.23% | |
45 Neutral | C$47.22M | -0.31 | -73.85% | ― | -17.95% | -97.06% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
2.04
-1.38
-40.35%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
17.29
1.61
10.26%
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.14
-0.16
-55.00%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
14.81
2.96
24.98%
TSE:CFP
Canfor
13.81
-0.33
-2.33%
GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
GreenFirst Narrows Q4 Loss, Bolsters Liquidity Amid Tariffs and Weak Lumber Prices
Negative
Mar 26, 2026
GreenFirst Forest Products reported a Q4 2025 net loss from continuing operations of $32.8 million, narrowing from the prior quarter, with negative adjusted EBITDA as falling benchmark lumber prices and a new 10% U.S. tariff pressured results. The...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GreenFirst Schedules March 26 Call to Discuss Fiscal 2025 Results
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. will release its fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 financial results after markets close on March 25, 2026, and will host an earnings conference call the following morning. The webcast, replay, and presentation materia...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
GreenFirst Secures $30 Million Federal Loan to Weather Lumber Market Volatility
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
GreenFirst Forest Products has secured a $30 million term loan under the Government of Canada’s Softwood Lumber Program, arranged through BMO, to bolster liquidity and support ongoing operations amid persistent volatility in the North Americ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.