GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$55.24M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -17.95%
• EPS Growth: -97.06%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): -2.54
• Shares Outstanding: 23,111,933
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,380
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,815
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: C$2.50 ▲(47.06% Upside)

The score is held down mainly by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative margins, and negative operating/free cash flow). Technicals are mixed—recent strength versus key moving averages but with overextended momentum signals. Valuation is difficult to support due to losses (negative P/E), while the earnings call adds some medium-term optimism from mill upgrades and liquidity discipline despite significant duty/tariff headwinds.

Positive Factors

Manageable Leverage

A low debt-to-equity ratio provides financial flexibility and lowers refinancing risk, enabling GFP to absorb cyclical losses and fund targeted investments. This balance sheet capacity supports execution of capital projects and market diversification without immediate reliance on dilutive financing.

Chapleau Capital Upgrades

New saw line, planer, boiler and cogeneration upgrades that raise drying capacity and cut downtime create durable productivity gains. With an under-3-year payback and full benefits expected by Q1 2026, these improvements should sustainably lower unit costs and uplift mill-level margins.

Cost Discipline & Liquidity

Improved excess liquidity paired with SG&A discipline (reported at $32/MBF) reflects tight cash management. This buffer reduces short-term refinancing risk, funds near-term capex completion, and increases runway to achieve operational recoveries before material cash generation resumes.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A near-20% TTM revenue decline undermines scale economics and suggests persistent demand or competitive issues. Sustained top-line contraction worsens fixed-cost absorption, pressures margins and free cash flow, and makes funding ongoing capex and turnaround initiatives more difficult.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative operating and free cash flow with poor coverage indicates core operations are not generating sufficient cash to support the business. This forces reliance on liquidity or external financing, restricting reinvestment and increasing solvency risk if operational improvement is delayed.

Trade Duties & Tariffs

Elevated export duties and a new tariff create a structural cost handicap to U.S. markets, reducing price competitiveness and likely suppressing volumes. Persistent trade barriers can force permanent margin concessions, accelerate market diversification needs, and depress long-term revenue potential.

GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) is a leading Canadian forest products company specializing in the sustainable production and distribution of lumber and wood-based products. Operating within the forestry and manufacturing sectors, GFP focuses on delivering high-quality, eco-friendly building materials while promoting responsible forest management practices. The company offers a range of products, including dimensional lumber, engineered wood products, and value-added products, catering to both residential and commercial construction markets.

How the Company Makes Money

GreenFirst Forest Products generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wood products, including lumber and engineered wood solutions. The company operates sawmills and manufacturing facilities that convert raw timber into finished products, which are then sold to wholesalers, distributors, and directly to construction firms. Key revenue streams include the sale of dimensional lumber, which is in high demand in the residential construction sector, and engineered wood products that provide innovative solutions for modern building needs. Additionally, GFP benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors that enhance its market reach and efficiency. The company's commitment to sustainable forestry practices also positions it favorably in a market increasingly focused on environmental responsibility, potentially leading to increased demand and premium pricing for its eco-friendly products.

GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GreenFirst Forest Products shows strong revenue growth but faces profitability and cash flow challenges. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, yet negative returns on equity and cash flow deficits are concerning.

Income Statement

GreenFirst Forest Products has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a significant revenue growth rate of 39.77% in the TTM period, indicating a positive trajectory in sales. However, profitability remains a concern with negative net profit margins and EBIT margins, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. The gross profit margin is low at 2.07%, suggesting limited pricing power or high cost of goods sold.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of GreenFirst Forest Products shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, which is relatively low and indicates a conservative capital structure. However, the return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio stands at 64.23%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets, which provides some financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges for GreenFirst Forest Products. The company has negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating cash generation issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that cash flow is better than net income, but the overall cash flow position remains weak. The negative growth in free cash flow further emphasizes the need for improvement in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	296.55M	282.85M	409.62M	446.26M	190.48M	0.00
Gross Profit	-1.61M	9.04M	-12.45M	43.08M	28.25M	0.00
EBITDA	-64.26M	5.31M	-30.89M	29.80M	264.00K	0.00
Net Income	-94.08M	-47.07M	-47.02M	-4.13M	-9.62M	-2.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	209.03M	220.47M	277.94M	371.50M	415.94M	17.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.49M	27.76M	2.42M	25.35M	36.17M	5.40M
Total Debt	37.17M	21.72M	25.63M	57.70M	125.19M	3.70M
Total Liabilities	127.35M	74.85M	92.71M	147.04M	186.78M	5.14M
Stockholders Equity	81.68M	145.62M	185.24M	224.46M	229.16M	12.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-39.96M	-32.41M	-82.21M	24.26M	-2.16M	-13.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-18.57M	-23.99M	-58.03M	57.86M	3.94M	-1.60M
Investing Cash Flow	6.26M	19.67M	67.36M	15.06M	-251.65M	-10.87M
Financing Cash Flow	4.78M	29.65M	-32.26M	-83.75M	278.61M	4.84M

GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.95, below the 50-day MA of 1.89, and below the 200-day MA of 2.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GFP.

GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADN	69 Neutral	C$299.90M	19.71	4.46%	7.35%	-28.86%	-48.20%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CFX	50 Neutral	C$37.84M	-3.77	-6.02%	―	-15.38%	94.27%
CFP	48 Neutral	C$1.63B	-3.59	-15.06%	―	1.76%	34.61%
WEF	47 Neutral	C$144.12M	-2.30	-12.20%	―	2.06%	-46.23%
GFP	45 Neutral	C$55.24M	-0.51	-73.85%	―	-17.95%	-97.06%
CFF	43 Neutral	C$6.93M	-0.18	-45.26%	―	10.33%	-52.20%

GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events

GreenFirst Extends Holiday Sawmill Curtailments Amid Weak Lumber Market

GreenFirst Forest Products is extending its holiday shutdown at three of its four Ontario sawmills—Hearst, Kapuskasing and Cochrane—to a three-week curtailment from December 22, 2025 to January 9, 2026, as it responds to ongoing weakness in softwood lumber markets. The company cited soft North American demand and the burden of roughly 45% combined duties and tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber as key pressures driving industry-wide production cuts, and said it will continue to adjust output to align with demand and support the long-term sustainability of its operations and the communities where it operates.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFP) stock is a Hold with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GreenFirst Forest Products stock, see the TSE:GFP Stock Forecast page.

GreenFirst Boosts Liquidity With Pension Surplus Retention and $19 Million EDC Backstop

GreenFirst Forest Products has received regulatory approval to distribute surplus assets from its wound-up defined benefit pension plan for Kapuskasing organized employees, allowing the company to retain an estimated $10.7 million after payments to eligible members and wind-up costs. In a parallel move to bolster its balance sheet, GreenFirst has secured a $19 million backstop on its existing standby letters of credit from Export Development Canada under the Account Performance Security Guarantee program, measures that collectively enhance the company’s liquidity, financial flexibility, and capacity to maintain operations and pursue strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFP) stock is a Hold with a C$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GreenFirst Forest Products stock, see the TSE:GFP Stock Forecast page.

GreenFirst Faces Q3 Loss Amid Market and Duty Challenges

GreenFirst Forest Products reported a significant net loss of $57.4 million in Q3 2025, impacted by lower lumber prices and increased duty liabilities due to higher assessed duty rates by the US Department of Commerce. Despite these challenges, the company is advancing its modernization efforts at the Chapleau mill, which is expected to strengthen its operations once market conditions improve.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFP) stock is a Hold with a C$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GreenFirst Forest Products stock, see the TSE:GFP Stock Forecast page.

GreenFirst Forest Products to Discuss Q3 2025 Financial Results

GreenFirst Forest Products announced it will host a conference call to discuss its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 12, 2025. The results will be released on November 11, 2025, and the call will provide insights into the company’s financial performance, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFP) stock is a Hold with a C$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GreenFirst Forest Products stock, see the TSE:GFP Stock Forecast page.

GreenFirst Supports Kap Paper’s Operational Restart, Strengthening Northern Ontario’s Forestry Sector

GreenFirst Forest Products has expressed support for the restart of operations at Kap Paper Inc., a key customer, highlighting collaboration between federal and provincial governments. This development stabilizes the supply and use of sawmill residues in Northeastern Ontario, addressing challenges in the lumber industry and supporting local communities. Additionally, there are plans for a long-term project to transform the paper mill into a more competitive and sustainable facility, further strengthening GreenFirst’s business prospects in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFP) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GreenFirst Forest Products stock, see the TSE:GFP Stock Forecast page.