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Greenfirst Forest Products Inc. (TSE:GFP)
:GFP
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GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:GFP

GreenFirst Forest Products

(OTC:GFP)

Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
C$3.00
▼(-3.23%Downside)
GreenFirst Forest Products' overall score is driven by significant financial challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. Despite some operational improvements and positive corporate events, the technical analysis and valuation metrics suggest caution. The earnings call provided some positive insights, but the overall outlook remains constrained by external market challenges and internal financial difficulties.

GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) is a Canadian-based company operating within the forest products sector. The company is engaged in the production and distribution of lumber and other wood-related products. Its core product offerings cater to various markets, including residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, with a focus on sustainable and environmentally friendly practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreenFirst Forest Products makes money primarily through the sale of its lumber and wood products. The company's revenue model is based on harvesting timber from its forest lands, processing it into finished goods at its manufacturing facilities, and distributing these products to a diverse customer base, including construction companies, wholesalers, and retailers. Key revenue streams include sales of dimensional lumber, wood chips, and other by-products. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include efficient forest management practices, strategic partnerships with distribution networks, and adherence to sustainable forestry standards, which enhance its market appeal and competitiveness.

GreenFirst Forest Products Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -22.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
GreenFirst showed a notable financial recovery with positive EBITDA and net income, driven largely by increased lumber prices and operational improvements. However, the company faced significant challenges with production and shipment due to tariff uncertainties and weather disruptions, alongside concerns about potential duty increases. While there are positive elements, such as strong performance in the repair and remodeling market, the overall sentiment is balanced by the significant challenges noted.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Financial Turnaround
GreenFirst reported a positive EBITDA of $5.1 million and a net income of $920,000 for Q1 2025, a significant improvement from Q4 2024, where they had a negative EBITDA of $913,000 and a net loss of $26.6 million.
Lumber Price Increase
The average realized lumber selling price increased from $680 in Q4 2024 to $729 in Q1 2025, contributing to stronger market pricing conditions during the quarter.
Operational Improvements
GreenFirst implemented operational changes that improved the overall grade of wood produced, driving the mill net approximately $30 per thousand higher overall.
Continued Strong Performance in Repair and Remodeling Market
The repair and remodeling market segment remained strong, driven by factors such as increased home equity and aging housing stock.
SG&A Reduction
Selling, General, and Administrative expenses were reduced to $2.6 million in Q1 2025 from $2.8 million in Q4 2024.
Negative Updates
Production and Shipment Challenges
Production and shipment volumes were lower than expected due to uncertainty around tariffs and weather-related disruptions, with Q1 production at 101 million FBM compared to 103 million in Q4 2024.
Tariff Uncertainty Impact
Uncertainty around a potential 25% tariff on Canadian lumber by the U.S. negatively impacted sales volume, creating negative buyer sentiment.
Inventory Increase
Inventory levels ended higher than expected due to economic uncertainty and tariff impacts, with finished goods inventory increasing.
Potential Duty Increase
The combined duty rate is expected to increase from 14.4% to 34.45% starting late Q3, which may impact end consumers and the company's cost structure.
Softening Lumber Demand
Despite an initial surge, demand began to soften, and prices started to decline towards the end of Q1 2025.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, GreenFirst Forest Products reported a positive EBITDA of $5.1 million and a net income of $920,000, marking a significant improvement from the previous quarter's negative EBITDA of $913,000 and a net loss of $26.6 million. This turnaround was largely attributed to higher lumber prices, although shipment and production were slightly below expectations due to tariff uncertainties and weather disruptions in Northern Ontario. The company faced a potential 25% tariff on Canadian lumber, impacting buyer sentiment and sales volume, but ultimately, the tariff was not implemented. Despite these challenges, GreenFirst achieved a production level of 101 million FBM, slightly lower than the 103 million FBM in Q4 2024, and ended the quarter with higher inventory levels due to economic uncertainties. The company maintained SG&A expenses at $29 per thousand, well below the target of $40 per thousand, and implemented a $20 million capital investment focused on strategic projects. GreenFirst also managed to improve the average realized lumber selling price from $680 in Q4 2024 to $729 in Q1 2025, despite a 3% decrease in revenue and a 4% reduction in sales volume.

GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary
GreenFirst Forest Products faces several financial challenges including declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and cash flow constraints. Despite maintaining a manageable level of debt, the shrinking asset base and equity reflect ongoing financial instability.
Income Statement
40
Negative
GreenFirst Forest Products has seen declining revenue over the past two years, with a significant drop from 2023 to 2024. The company’s gross profit margin improved in 2024 but remains low. Net profit margins have been negative, with losses in the last two years indicating profitability challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been negative, reflecting operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, indicating manageable leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased, reflecting a shrinking asset base. Return on equity is negative, pointing to inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a solid equity base compared to its liabilities.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
GreenFirst Forest Products has experienced negative free cash flow in recent years, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating limited cash generation relative to earnings.
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.10
Price Trends
50DMA
3.63
Negative
100DMA
3.76
Negative
200DMA
4.68
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.14
Positive
RSI
33.29
Neutral
STOCH
12.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.29, below the 50-day MA of 3.63, and below the 200-day MA of 4.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFP.

GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
C$328.08M16.545.85%8.11%12.30%-36.60%
61
Neutral
C$98.12M11.864.19%4.27%3.48%-37.78%
54
Neutral
C$14.27M-24.89%-7.32%10.08%
52
Neutral
C$130.08M-1.51%9.47%85.30%
49
Neutral
C$44.36M-59.20%-9.60%-92.59%
44
Neutral
C$969.39M-6.88-13.68%2.10%17.43%-32.98%
44
Neutral
C$69.62M-16.05%-23.94%24.31%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
3.08
0.16
5.41%
TSE:GDL
Goodfellow
11.71
-2.05
-14.90%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
13.65
1.20
9.64%
TSE:CFX
Canfor Pulp Products
0.68
-0.31
-31.31%
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.36
-0.07
-16.28%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
18.25
1.35
7.99%

GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GreenFirst Forest Products Reports Positive Q1 2025 Results Amid Market Challenges
Positive
May 14, 2025

GreenFirst Forest Products reported a positive financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with a net income of $0.9 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $5.1 million, marking a significant improvement from the previous quarter’s losses. Despite economic uncertainty and potential tariffs on lumber exports to the U.S., the company benefited from strong lumber prices, which offset lower sales volumes due to market conditions and weather-related disruptions. The company remains focused on disciplined capital expenditures and maintaining a strong balance sheet to handle market volatility.

Financial Disclosures
GreenFirst Forest Products to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 7, 2025

GreenFirst Forest Products announced it will host a conference call to discuss its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 14, 2025. The results will be released after trading on May 13, 2025, and stakeholders can access the webcast and presentation slides on the company’s website. This announcement highlights GreenFirst’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its investors, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
GreenFirst Forest Products Announces AGM Voting Results
Positive
May 2, 2025

GreenFirst Forest Products announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, where all nominees for the Board of Directors were elected with high approval rates. Shareholders also approved the setting of the number of directors at six and the appointment of the auditor, reflecting strong support for the company’s governance and operational strategies.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 15, 2025