GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$40.21M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: -17.95%
• EPS Growth: -97.06%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): -2.54
• Shares Outstanding: 23,111,933
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,380
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,815
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: C$1.50 ▼(-11.76% Downside)

GreenFirst Forest Products is currently facing substantial financial and operational challenges, reflected in its low financial performance and valuation scores. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while the earnings call provides some hope for future improvements. However, the overall outlook remains cautious due to the current negative financial metrics and market conditions.

Positive Factors

Capital Improvements

The installation of a new saw line and upgrades at Chapleau are expected to enhance profitability, with a payback period under 3 years, indicating a strategic investment in operational efficiency.

Federal Support Program

Anticipated benefits from Canadian federal support, including loan guarantees and market diversification funds, could mitigate duty impacts and support long-term growth.

Improved Liquidity

Excess liquidity increased from $22 million to $27 million, reflecting effective cash management and providing a buffer for future operational needs.

Negative Factors

Negative Profitability Margins

Negative profitability margins and declining revenue growth indicate ongoing challenges in maintaining financial health and competitiveness.

Increased Duty Rates

Higher duty rates on U.S. exports create pricing pressure and reduce competitiveness, potentially impacting sales and market share.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow indicates difficulties in generating sufficient cash from operations, which can constrain investment and growth opportunities.

GreenFirst Forest Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GreenFirst Forest Products (GFP) is a leading Canadian forest products company specializing in the sustainable production and distribution of lumber and wood-based products. Operating within the forestry and manufacturing sectors, GFP focuses on delivering high-quality, eco-friendly building materials while promoting responsible forest management practices. The company offers a range of products, including dimensional lumber, engineered wood products, and value-added products, catering to both residential and commercial construction markets.

How the Company Makes Money

GreenFirst Forest Products generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wood products, including lumber and engineered wood solutions. The company operates sawmills and manufacturing facilities that convert raw timber into finished products, which are then sold to wholesalers, distributors, and directly to construction firms. Key revenue streams include the sale of dimensional lumber, which is in high demand in the residential construction sector, and engineered wood products that provide innovative solutions for modern building needs. Additionally, GFP benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors that enhance its market reach and efficiency. The company's commitment to sustainable forestry practices also positions it favorably in a market increasingly focused on environmental responsibility, potentially leading to increased demand and premium pricing for its eco-friendly products.

GreenFirst Forest Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GreenFirst Forest Products shows strong revenue growth but faces profitability and cash flow challenges. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, yet negative returns on equity and cash flow deficits are concerning.

Income Statement

GreenFirst Forest Products has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a significant revenue growth rate of 39.77% in the TTM period, indicating a positive trajectory in sales. However, profitability remains a concern with negative net profit margins and EBIT margins, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. The gross profit margin is low at 2.07%, suggesting limited pricing power or high cost of goods sold.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of GreenFirst Forest Products shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, which is relatively low and indicates a conservative capital structure. However, the return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio stands at 64.23%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets, which provides some financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges for GreenFirst Forest Products. The company has negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating cash generation issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that cash flow is better than net income, but the overall cash flow position remains weak. The negative growth in free cash flow further emphasizes the need for improvement in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	296.55M	282.85M	409.62M	446.26M	190.48M	0.00
Gross Profit	-1.61M	9.04M	-12.45M	43.08M	28.25M	0.00
EBITDA	-64.26M	5.31M	-30.89M	29.80M	264.00K	0.00
Net Income	-94.08M	-47.07M	-47.02M	-4.13M	-9.62M	-2.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	209.03M	220.47M	277.94M	371.50M	415.94M	17.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.49M	27.76M	2.42M	25.35M	36.17M	5.40M
Total Debt	37.17M	21.72M	25.63M	57.70M	125.19M	3.70M
Total Liabilities	127.35M	74.85M	92.71M	147.04M	186.78M	5.14M
Stockholders Equity	81.68M	145.62M	185.24M	224.46M	229.16M	12.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-39.96M	-32.41M	-82.21M	24.26M	-2.16M	-13.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-18.57M	-23.99M	-58.03M	57.86M	3.94M	-1.60M
Investing Cash Flow	6.26M	19.67M	67.36M	15.06M	-251.65M	-10.87M
Financing Cash Flow	4.78M	29.65M	-32.26M	-83.75M	278.61M	4.84M

GreenFirst Forest Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.79, below the 50-day MA of 1.99, and below the 200-day MA of 3.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFP.

GreenFirst Forest Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADN	69 Neutral	C$283.26M	18.62	4.46%	7.37%	-28.86%	-48.20%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CFX	50 Neutral	C$32.29M	-3.16	-6.02%	―	-15.38%	94.27%
CFP	48 Neutral	C$1.28B	-2.79	-15.06%	―	1.76%	34.61%
WEF	47 Neutral	C$112.87M	-1.76	-12.20%	―	2.06%	-46.23%
GFP	42 Neutral	C$40.21M	-0.40	-73.85%	―	-17.95%	-97.06%
CFF	37 Underperform	C$2.45M	-0.07	-45.26%	―	10.33%	-52.20%

GreenFirst Forest Products Corporate Events

GreenFirst Faces Q3 Loss Amid Market and Duty Challenges

GreenFirst Forest Products reported a significant net loss of $57.4 million in Q3 2025, impacted by lower lumber prices and increased duty liabilities due to higher assessed duty rates by the US Department of Commerce. Despite these challenges, the company is advancing its modernization efforts at the Chapleau mill, which is expected to strengthen its operations once market conditions improve.

GreenFirst Forest Products to Discuss Q3 2025 Financial Results

GreenFirst Forest Products announced it will host a conference call to discuss its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 12, 2025. The results will be released on November 11, 2025, and the call will provide insights into the company’s financial performance, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning.

GreenFirst Supports Kap Paper’s Operational Restart, Strengthening Northern Ontario’s Forestry Sector

GreenFirst Forest Products has expressed support for the restart of operations at Kap Paper Inc., a key customer, highlighting collaboration between federal and provincial governments. This development stabilizes the supply and use of sawmill residues in Northeastern Ontario, addressing challenges in the lumber industry and supporting local communities. Additionally, there are plans for a long-term project to transform the paper mill into a more competitive and sustainable facility, further strengthening GreenFirst’s business prospects in the region.

GreenFirst Sees Positive Developments for Kap Paper and Regional Forestry Sector

GreenFirst Forest Products is optimistic about the progress toward stabilizing Kap Paper Inc. and the forestry sector in Northeastern Ontario, as discussions with the Canadian and Ontario governments advance. The company is preparing to resume operations at its mills, aiming to protect jobs and maintain supply chains, while continuing to engage with stakeholders to ensure the long-term sustainability of the regional forest economy.

GreenFirst Temporarily Curtails Operations Amid Industry Challenges

GreenFirst Forest Products announced a temporary curtailment of its sawmill operations in response to the idling of Kap Paper, its primary customer for wood by-products, and broader challenges in the forestry sector. This decision affects approximately 140 employees and highlights issues such as elevated tariffs, market uncertainty, and low lumber prices, underscoring the difficulties faced by the industry in Ontario.