Acadian Timber (ADN) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

95 Followers

Top Page

Acadian Timber

(TSX:ADN)

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:

C$19.00

▲(7.65% Upside)

Acadian Timber's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial environment with declining revenue and cash flow, offset by stable profitability margins and a strong dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the earnings call underscores operational difficulties, particularly in Maine. The company's valuation is supported by its attractive dividend yield, but strategic initiatives are needed to address the negative trends and improve financial stability.

Acadian Timber (ADN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$320.24M

Dividend Yield8.38%

Average Volume (3M)6.78K

Price to Earnings (P/E)22.2

Beta (1Y)0.38

Revenue Growth-26.79%

EPS Growth-57.05%

CountryCA

Employees195

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength68

IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.15

Shares Outstanding18,123,201

10 Day Avg. Volume5,287

30 Day Avg. Volume6,783

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$19.00

Price Target Upside7.65% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Acadian Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAcadian Timber Corp. (ADN) is a leading timberland company in North America, primarily operating in the forestry and timberland sector. The company manages approximately 2.4 million acres of timberlands in New Brunswick, Canada, and Maine, USA. Acadian Timber is involved in sustainable forest management and the production of a wide range of forest products including sawlogs, pulpwood, and biomass, serving diverse markets in North America and beyond.

How the Company Makes MoneyAcadian Timber makes money by harvesting and selling timber products from its managed timberlands. Its primary revenue streams include the sale of sawlogs, which are used in the production of lumber, and pulpwood, which is utilized in the paper and pulp industry. Additionally, the company generates income from biomass, which is used as a renewable energy source. Acadian Timber's earnings are influenced by factors such as timber pricing, demand in the construction and paper industries, and sustainable forest management practices. The company may also engage in partnerships or long-term contracts with industrial and institutional customers to ensure steady revenue streams.

Acadian Timber Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Negative

The earnings call reflected a challenging period for Acadian Timber, with strong performance in New Brunswick offset by significant operational difficulties in Maine and a decline in overall financial metrics. While there were some positive aspects, such as increased biomass volumes and a strong financial position, the challenges in Maine and the drop in adjusted EBITDA and timber sales suggest a cautious outlook.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Solid Performance in New Brunswick

New Brunswick operations delivered solid results with increased timber sales volumes driven by strong demand for softwood sawlogs and increased harvesting capacity. Sales volume, excluding biomass, increased 4% compared to the prior year period.

Biomass Volume and Pricing Increase

Biomass volumes doubled and pricing increased 68% due to changes in product mix.

Strong Financial Position

Acadian maintained a strong financial position with a net liquidity of $15.1 million, including cash balances and undrawn revolving credit facilities.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Maine Operations

Maine operations faced challenges due to unfavorable weather conditions and the transition to internal logging operations, resulting in a 59% decrease in timber sales volume compared to the prior year and negative $900,000 in adjusted EBITDA.

Decrease in Overall Timber Sales

Overall timber sales and services decreased to $17.1 million from $21.5 million in the prior year period. Timber sales volume, excluding biomass, decreased 13% compared to the second quarter of 2024.

Significant Drop in Adjusted EBITDA and Margin

Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $2.4 million compared to $20.6 million in the prior year period. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 14% compared to 50% in the prior year period.

Decline in Softwood and Hardwood Pulpwood Pricing

Softwood pulpwood pricing decreased 2% and hardwood pulpwood pricing decreased 8% due to lower demand and shorter hauling distances.

Company Guidance

During the Acadian Timber Second Quarter 2025 Analyst Conference Call, several key financial metrics and operational insights were shared. The company reported timber sales and services of $17.1 million, a decrease from $21.5 million in the prior year, with timber sales volume, excluding biomass, down by 13%. New Brunswick operations performed well, with sales of $14.4 million and a 4% increase in timber sales volume, whereas operations in Maine faced challenges due to unfavorable weather, resulting in a 59% drop in timber sales volume. The weighted average selling price, excluding biomass, decreased by 4%, and operating costs and expenses were reduced to $15.4 million from $32.2 million the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.4 million, with a margin of 14% compared to 50% in the prior year. The net income for the quarter was $2.7 million or $0.15 per share, down from $7.9 million or $0.46 per share in the previous year. Acadian declared dividends of $5.2 million or $0.29 per share and maintained a strong net liquidity position of $15.1 million. Looking forward, the company expects to increase production levels in Maine and sees potential in real estate and renewable energy projects.

Acadian Timber Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Acadian Timber's financial performance is challenged by declining revenue and cash flow, though profitability margins remain reasonable. The balance sheet is stable, but the company needs to improve its return on equity and address the negative trends in revenue and cash flow.

Income Statement

Positive

Acadian Timber's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 21.44%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains decent profitability with a gross profit margin of 30.11% and a net profit margin of 16.03%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 25.99% and 27.25%, respectively, though they have decreased compared to previous periods. The company needs to address the declining revenue trend to improve its financial health.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33. The return on equity (ROE) is relatively low at 4.21% in the TTM period, indicating room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 56.27%, suggesting a solid equity base. Overall, the balance sheet is stable, but enhancing ROE should be a focus.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth rate by 77.11% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, indicating less cash generation from operations relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively strong at 87.24%, suggesting efficient cash conversion. Improving cash flow generation is crucial for future stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	88.15M	116.19M	93.48M	90.47M	95.73M	91.03M
Gross Profit	26.54M	38.27M	29.22M	27.58M	30.80M	30.13M
EBITDA	24.02M	34.63M	43.56M	52.51M	29.69M	35.86M
Net Income	14.13M	21.74M	29.43M	35.51M	18.68M	22.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	598.61M	608.02M	567.95M	547.84M	516.64M	513.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.65M	15.25M	1.83M	6.23M	7.32M	10.26M
Total Debt	110.73M	114.94M	105.52M	107.94M	100.89M	101.19M
Total Liabilities	261.84M	268.99M	248.97M	244.11M	225.16M	220.16M
Stockholders Equity	336.77M	339.03M	318.98M	303.72M	291.49M	293.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.10M	23.55M	9.79M	14.86M	15.90M	20.27M
Operating Cash Flow	6.99M	34.05M	10.41M	15.23M	16.23M	20.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.40M	-9.14M	56.00K	-319.00K	186.00K	32.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-8.39M	-11.49M	-14.87M	-16.00M	-19.36M	-17.99M

Acadian Timber Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price17.65

Price Trends

50DMA

17.91

Negative

100DMA

17.63

Positive

200DMA

17.25

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.07

Positive

RSI

34.38

Neutral

STOCH

17.41

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ADN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.83, below the 50-day MA of 17.91, and above the 200-day MA of 17.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:ADN.

Acadian Timber Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	62 Neutral	$10.28B	6.21	0.76%	2.84%	3.10%	-36.03%
ADN	60 Neutral	C$320.24M	22.18	4.24%	8.38%	-26.79%	-57.05%
ICLTF	―	$45.09M	―	-13.50%	―	―	―
WEF	48 Neutral	C$130.39M	―	-3.84%	―	3.89%	49.05%
CFF	39 Underperform	C$11.82M	―	-25.84%	―	-8.76%	16.86%
IFSPF	―	$477.48M	―	-11.53%	―	―	―
CFPZF	―	$1.12B	―	-19.38%	―	―	―

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:ADN

Acadian Timber

17.65

1.59

9.90%

ICLTF

GreenFirst Forest Products

2.03

-0.70

-25.64%

TSE:CFF

Conifex Timber

0.30

-0.08

-21.05%

TSE:WEF

Western Forest Prod

12.35

-0.40

-3.14%

IFSPF

Interfor

9.60

-2.73

-22.14%

CFPZF

Canfor

9.85

-0.51

-4.92%

Acadian Timber Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Acadian Timber Reports Mixed Q2 2025 Results Amid Operational Shifts

Neutral

Aug 6, 2025

Acadian Timber Corp. reported mixed results for the second quarter of 2025, with steady operations in New Brunswick but lower production in Maine due to ongoing development of new internal logging operations. The company’s sales decreased significantly to $17.1 million from $41.2 million the previous year, primarily due to the absence of carbon credit sales. Despite this, Acadian maintained a solid balance sheet with $15.1 million in net liquidity and declared dividends of $5.2 million, indicating confidence in its long-term operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ADN) stock is a Hold with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadian Timber stock, see the TSE:ADN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 26, 2025