Conifex Timber (CFF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$6.12M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 22.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.92
• Revenue Growth: 10.33%
• EPS Growth: -52.20%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 244
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 40,767,710
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 25,842
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,996
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.04
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.15 ▲(22.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/24/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (multi-year losses, negative/weak cash flow, and rising leverage with a much smaller equity base). Technicals provide some offset with improving near-term momentum, but the longer-term trend remains weak, and valuation is constrained by loss-making results and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration / timber access

Owning harvesting and log procurement capabilities secures feedstock and reduces reliance on third-party suppliers. Over months this supports stable production scheduling, helps control delivered log costs versus peers, and provides a durable advantage in managing input volatility and sustaining mill throughput.

By-product monetization

Monetizing residual fiber creates a secondary revenue stream and improves realized margins per cubic meter of wood processed. Over time this diversifies income, reduces waste disposal costs, and cushions lumber margin swings by capturing value from non-lumber outputs.

Gross profit recovery

Return to positive gross profit indicates operational cost improvements or better product mix at the mill level. Sustained positive gross margins are a prerequisite for eventual operating profit recovery and suggest the company can generate unit-level economics supportive of long-term margin rebuilding.

Negative Factors

Persistent operating losses

Multi-year operating losses erode retained earnings and limit capacity to invest or weather downturns. Over a 2–6 month horizon this persistent unprofitability constrains management choices, weakens stakeholder confidence, and prolongs reliance on external capital to fund operations.

Rising leverage and shrinking equity

A materially smaller equity base alongside higher debt increases financial risk and reduces the company’s cushion versus cyclical shocks. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk and limits strategic flexibility, making the business more vulnerable if lumber markets weaken.

Weak, inconsistent cash generation

Recurring negative free cash flow means the business is not self-funding capital needs and may need external financing. Over months this pressures liquidity, can force asset sales or higher-cost funding, and hampers the ability to invest in maintenance or growth without diluting stakeholders.

Conifex Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Conifex Timber Inc. primarily manufactures and sells lumber products in the United States, China, Canada, Japan, and internationally. It is involved in the timber harvesting, reforestation, and forest management activities; manufacture of finished softwood lumber from spruce, pine, and fir logs; manufacture, sale, and distribution of dimension lumber; processing logs into lumber and wood chips, as well as by-products or residues, such as trim blocks, sawdust, shavings, and barks; and providing value added lumber finishing services. It also develops bioenergy and bio products; and operates a 36 megawatt biomass power generation plant, which produces renewable energy for commercial sale. The company was formerly known as West Fourth Capital Inc. and changed its name to Conifex Timber Inc. in June 2010. Conifex Timber Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Conifex primarily makes money by producing and selling softwood lumber. Revenue is generated through wholesale shipments of lumber produced at its sawmilling operations, with realized pricing driven by prevailing North American lumber market conditions, product mix, and sales terms. The company also earns revenue from the sale of by-products produced during lumber manufacturing (e.g., wood chips, sawdust, and bark) where such markets exist, monetizing residual fiber that is not converted into lumber. On the supply side, Conifex’s access to timber through its harvesting and log procurement activities supports sawmill production and can influence margins via delivered log costs. Financial performance is therefore mainly a function of lumber shipment volumes, lumber pricing, production costs (including logs, labor, energy, and transportation), and the ability to sell manufacturing residuals into end markets. Specific partnership arrangements or contract details are null.

Conifex Timber Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial quality is weak: profitability has deteriorated into sizable operating losses across 2023–2025, revenue has trended down, and cash generation is inconsistent with mostly negative free cash flow in recent years. Balance-sheet risk has increased as debt rose while equity shrank materially, reducing the cushion in a cyclical downturn.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply versus the 2021–2022 upcycle: the company moved from solid positive margins in 2021–2022 to sizable operating losses in 2023–2025, with EBIT and net income negative in each of the last three annual periods. Revenue is also volatile and trending down overall (large drop in 2023, further declines in 2024–2025), signaling weak pricing/power and/or volume pressure. A modest positive is that gross profit turned positive again in 2024–2025 after a negative gross profit year in 2023, but current earnings levels remain meaningfully loss-making.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased and balance-sheet flexibility has weakened: total debt rose from ~62–64M (2022–2023) to ~77M (2024) and ~88M (2025), while equity has fallen materially from ~146M (2022) to ~50M (2025), indicating cumulative losses and/or write-downs. In 2024, debt was already high relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.90) and returns to shareholders were deeply negative. Total assets have been relatively stable, but the shrinking equity base raises financial risk and reduces cushion against further cyclical downturns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak and inconsistent. Operating cash flow is negative in 2020, 2024, and 2025, with only a modest positive year in 2023 and strong generation during 2021–2022. Free cash flow is negative in most years (2020, 2023–2025), including 2025, implying the business is not currently self-funding. While free cash flow improved versus 2024 (growth rate strongly positive), it remains meaningfully negative, suggesting ongoing liquidity pressure unless conditions improve or funding sources remain available.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	142.75M	127.74M	141.16M	231.27M	250.53M
Gross Profit	15.80M	3.84M	-5.82M	65.55M	72.44M
EBITDA	-26.74M	-15.12M	-25.77M	35.86M	51.49M
Net Income	-35.67M	-29.78M	-30.63M	24.49M	27.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	207.67M	203.88M	218.99M	257.26M	231.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.93M	3.64M	4.19M	8.44M	6.35M
Total Debt	87.65M	77.32M	63.85M	62.80M	59.38M
Total Liabilities	157.93M	118.04M	103.49M	111.00M	101.63M
Stockholders Equity	49.74M	85.84M	115.50M	146.27M	129.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-10.04M	-10.70M	-2.99M	11.31M	20.33M
Operating Cash Flow	-5.52M	-6.62M	3.62M	24.83M	26.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.53M	-4.08M	-5.20M	-12.81M	-5.81M
Financing Cash Flow	9.34M	10.15M	-2.67M	-9.94M	-25.73M

Conifex Timber Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.13, below the 50-day MA of 0.13, and below the 200-day MA of 0.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CFF.

Conifex Timber Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADN	66 Neutral	C$311.90M	5.90	14.25%	7.35%	-28.86%	-48.20%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CFF	46 Neutral	C$6.12M	-0.16	-45.26%	―	10.33%	-52.20%
WEF	46 Neutral	C$138.84M	-1.45	-12.20%	―	2.06%	-46.23%
GFP	45 Neutral	C$50.67M	-0.24	-73.85%	―	-17.95%	-97.06%
CFP	44 Neutral	C$1.51B	-1.73	-27.04%	―	1.76%	34.61%
CFX	43 Neutral	C$33.27M	-0.22	-105.48%	―	-15.38%	94.27%

Conifex Timber Corporate Events

Conifex Deepens 2025 Losses Despite Higher Lumber Revenues

Conifex Timber reported a significantly wider EBITDA loss of $27.5 million and a net loss of $35.7 million for 2025, as weaker lumber prices, higher duty deposit rates and tariffs drove deeper operating losses despite modest revenue growth. Lumber revenues rose 7% to $101 million on higher benchmark prices and a 3% increase in shipments, while production ran at a 62% rate before being curtailed in the second half as market conditions deteriorated.

The company’s Mackenzie operations produced 147.9 million board feet of lumber and 179 GWh of electricity in 2025, reflecting slightly improved output over 2024 but insufficient to offset rising costs and trade headwinds. The results underscore ongoing margin pressure in B.C.’s lumber sector and suggest continued financial strain for Conifex as it adapts mill configurations and curtailments to volatile pricing and escalating U.S. softwood lumber duties.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFF) stock is a Hold with a C$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Conifex Timber stock, see the TSE:CFF Stock Forecast page.