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Conifex Timber (TSE:CFF)
:CFF
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Conifex Timber (CFF) AI Stock Analysis

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Conifex Timber

(TSX:CFF)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.50
▲(66.67%Upside)
Conifex Timber's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial challenges, including consistent losses and cash flow issues. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, and valuation metrics highlight profitability concerns. However, recent corporate events, including a profitable quarter and shareholder confidence, provide some positive outlook.

Conifex Timber (CFF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Conifex Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConifex Timber Inc. (CFF) is a publicly traded forestry company based in Canada, specializing in the production of softwood lumber. The company operates primarily in the forest products sector, focusing on the harvesting of timber and the manufacturing of lumber products. Conifex Timber is committed to sustainable forest management and utilizes advanced technologies to maximize efficiency and product quality in its operations.
How the Company Makes MoneyConifex Timber Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of softwood lumber products. The company's revenue model is driven by its timber harvesting operations, which supply raw materials for its lumber manufacturing facilities. Conifex's key revenue streams include domestic and international sales of lumber, with a focus on markets in North America and Asia. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its market reach and operational capabilities. Additionally, factors such as lumber prices, demand for housing and construction, and forest management practices significantly influence Conifex's earnings.

Conifex Timber Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: -9.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted improvements in EBITDA loss, strengthening lumber prices, and surplus sawlogs availability as positive factors. However, challenges such as reductions in the allowable annual cut, legal issues with BC Hydro, and limited borrowing capacity to expand operations were noted. Overall, the sentiment leans towards optimism with significant progress made but also acknowledges existing hurdles.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Improvement in EBITDA Loss
Negative EBITDA of $3.9 million in Q3 2024, lower than the $7.1 million loss in Q2 and $6.7 million loss in Q3 2023.
Strengthening Lumber Prices
Average lumber selling price realizations increased to CAD 512 per thousand board feet in Q4, a 17.5% improvement over Q3.
Potential Positive EBITDA in Q4
Expectations to record a dramatically reduced EBITDA loss or potentially positive EBITDA in Q4 due to firm lumber prices.
Surplus of Sawlogs in Mackenzie TSA
The Mackenzie Timber Supply Area has a large surplus of sawlogs, ensuring no challenges in securing sawlogs for future operations.
Reduction in Delivered Log Costs
Achieved a modest reduction in delivered log costs due to adjustments by the Ministry of Forests and changes in supply demand dynamics.
Negative Updates
Reduction in Allowable Annual Cut
The new allowable annual cut for the Mackenzie Timber Supply Area was set at 2.39 million cubic meters, a 20% reduction from past levels.
Legal Challenges with BC Hydro
Facing legal challenges due to BC Hydro suspending electric power interconnection transactions, with an appeal pending in the Supreme Court of BC.
Limited Borrowing Headroom
Lack of borrowing headroom is preventing the move to a 2-shift operation at the sawmill complex, limiting potential production increases.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Conifex Timber Inc., CEO Ken Shields discussed several key metrics and developments. The company reported a negative EBITDA of $3.9 million for the quarter, which was an improvement from the $7.1 million loss in Q2 and the $6.7 million EBITDA loss in Q3 2023. The average lumber selling price realizations for the third quarter were CAD 436 per thousand board feet, with shipments of 29.3 million board feet, and prices improved to CAD 512 per thousand board feet in the early fourth quarter, marking a 17.5% increase. Shields highlighted the company's progress in reducing log costs and improving their position on the North American industry cost curve for SPF lumber, contributing to lower EBITDA losses compared to 2023. Looking ahead, Conifex aims to move to a two-shift operation in 2025, which would enhance their ability to achieve positive EBITDA. The company is also appealing a legal decision concerning power interconnection projects and anticipates a court hearing before the end of the year.

Conifex Timber Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Conifex Timber faces significant financial challenges with consistent losses impacting profitability and cash flow. Improvements in gross profit margin are noted, but negative net income, cash flows, and increasing debt levels present risks. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but declining equity, highlighting potential risks.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The company's income statement shows a challenging period with declining revenues and negative profitability metrics. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $131.6M represents a slight growth from the previous annual figure. However, the gross profit margin improved to 10.2% for TTM from 3.0% the previous year, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin remains negative due to substantial losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating ongoing operating challenges. These factors contribute to a low income statement score.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a moderately leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97 TTM, which is manageable but requires caution. The equity ratio of 40.4% TTM indicates a reasonable level of financial stability. However, the declining stockholders' equity and increasing total debt are concerns. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, which impacts the score. Overall, the balance sheet reflects moderate financial health with some risks.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
The company's cash flow statement highlights a challenging environment with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio are negative, reflecting cash generation issues. Free cash flow growth is negative, indicating cash management difficulties. This results in a low cash flow score, suggesting the need for improved cash flow management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue127.74M141.16M231.27M250.53M128.71M
Gross Profit3.84M-5.82M65.55M72.44M28.11M
EBITDA-15.12M-25.77M46.71M51.76M9.72M
Net Income-29.78M-30.63M24.49M27.20M-6.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets203.88M218.99M257.26M231.46M216.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.64M4.19M8.44M6.35M11.16M
Total Debt77.32M63.85M62.80M59.38M63.40M
Total Liabilities118.04M103.49M111.00M101.63M100.34M
Stockholders Equity85.84M115.50M146.27M129.83M116.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-10.70M-2.99M11.31M20.33M-8.52M
Operating Cash Flow-6.62M3.62M24.83M26.74M-6.30M
Investing Cash Flow-4.08M-5.20M-12.81M-5.81M221.48M
Financing Cash Flow10.15M-2.67M-9.94M-25.73M-207.41M

Conifex Timber Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.30
Price Trends
50DMA
0.34
Negative
100DMA
0.33
Negative
200DMA
0.36
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
42.20
Neutral
STOCH
4.63
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.32, below the 50-day MA of 0.34, and below the 200-day MA of 0.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFF.

Conifex Timber Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSADN
75
Outperform
C$322.32M16.265.85%6.47%12.30%-36.60%
TSCFP
53
Neutral
$1.71B-18.19%-2.51%-157.38%
TSWEF
52
Neutral
C$126.70M-1.51%9.47%85.29%
TSCFX
49
Neutral
C$45.66M-59.20%-9.60%-92.59%
TSCFF
48
Neutral
C$12.43M-24.89%-7.32%10.08%
44
Neutral
C$967.00M-6.65-13.73%2.47%17.55%-32.57%
TSGFP
44
Neutral
$74.14M-16.05%-23.94%24.31%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.32
-0.09
-21.95%
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
3.28
-0.37
-10.19%
TSE:CFP
Canfor
14.59
-0.21
-1.42%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
0.40
-0.04
-9.09%
TSE:CFX
Canfor Pulp Products
0.70
-0.34
-32.69%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
17.95
1.76
10.87%

Conifex Timber Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Conifex Timber Inc. Announces Successful Director Elections and Auditor Appointment
Positive
Jun 28, 2025

Conifex Timber Inc. announced the successful election of all management nominees as directors at its annual general meeting. Shareholders also approved PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the company’s auditor for the upcoming year. This election and auditor appointment reflect shareholder confidence in the company’s leadership and financial oversight, potentially strengthening its market position and operational stability.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Conifex Timber Inc. Reports Profitable First Quarter 2025
Positive
May 12, 2025

Conifex Timber Inc. reported a profitable first quarter in 2025, with a net income of $0.6 million, a significant turnaround from the previous quarter’s net loss of $7.8 million. The company achieved an EBITDA of $4.9 million, reflecting improved operational efficiency and increased lumber production, which rose by 87% compared to the previous quarter. Despite logistical challenges affecting shipments, Conifex’s operational adjustments, including resuming a two-shift configuration, have positioned it for continued growth in the upcoming quarters.

Financial Disclosures
Conifex Timber to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 2, 2025

Conifex Timber Inc. has announced that it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 12, 2025, before the market opens. The company has scheduled a conference call on the same day to discuss these results, which could provide insights into its financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting its stakeholders and market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 11, 2025