Conifex Timber (TSE:CFF)
TSX:CFF
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Conifex Timber
(TSX:CFF)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.12
▲(2.50% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (recent losses, negative free cash flow, and higher leverage with a reduced equity base). Technicals provide a modest offset with improving short-term momentum, while valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings. The latest earnings call adds some support from an operational recovery plan and financing actions, but near-term tariff, curtailment, and liquidity risks remain significant.
Positive Factors
Timber supply / cost advantage
Conifex operates inside a regional timber surplus (≈10M m3 supply vs ≈8M m3 demand), giving sustainable access to competitively priced sawlogs and relatively affordable stumpage. This structural input-cost advantage supports long-run margins versus higher-cost peers and underpins volume stability as mills scale.
Negative Factors
Eroded balance sheet and higher leverage
Rising total debt alongside a materially smaller equity base weakens financial flexibility and increases solvency risk across the cycle. With equity down markedly, the firm has less capacity to absorb further losses or price shocks, making future funding more costly and constraining strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Timber supply / cost advantage
Conifex operates inside a regional timber surplus (≈10M m3 supply vs ≈8M m3 demand), giving sustainable access to competitively priced sawlogs and relatively affordable stumpage. This structural input-cost advantage supports long-run margins versus higher-cost peers and underpins volume stability as mills scale.
Read all positive factors
Conifex Timber (CFF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.10M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)22.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.86
Revenue Growth10.33%
EPS Growth-52.20%
CountryCA
Employees244
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.28
Shares Outstanding40,767,710
10 Day Avg. Volume25,842
30 Day Avg. Volume21,996
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.02
P/FCF Ratio-0.28
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Conifex Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Conifex Timber Inc. primarily manufactures and sells lumber products in the United States, China, Canada, Japan, and internationally. It is involved in the timber harvesting, reforestation, and forest management activities; manufacture of finished...
How the Company Makes Money
Conifex primarily makes money by producing and selling softwood lumber. Revenue is generated through wholesale shipments of lumber produced at its sawmilling operations, with realized pricing driven by prevailing North American lumber market condi...
Conifex Timber Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: significant near-term challenges from sharply increased U.S. duties/tariffs, a large 2025 net loss ($35.7M), curtailed operations and working capital strain created material downside risks. Offsetting these negatives are meaningful lender support (Pender and BDC), a clear operational plan to return to 2-shift production with estimated conversion cost savings ($50–$70 per 1,000), identified quick-payback capex (~$11M for >$4M EBITDA uplift), and a pathway to EBITDA-positive months in late 2026 assuming improved pricing/duty relief and restored inventory. Given the balance of material negatives and credible near-term mitigants/financings, the tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Secured Bridge and Longer-Term Financing
Obtained significant lender support: Pender Fund advances (initial $25.0M term loan in June 2024 plus ~$21.5M in follow-ons through 2025) and a $19.0M secured term loan from BDC under the softwood lumber guarantee program (matures 2033, interest = BDC floating base rate - 60 bps). $8.0M of BDC proceeds retired short-term Pender advances and the BDC loan reduces near-term covenant risk.
Negative Updates
Large full-year net loss driven by duties/tariffs
Reported full-year 2025 net loss of $35.7M after expensing duty deposits and tariff charges of $26.1M; result included a one-time non-cash charge of $15.3M for 2023 duty underpayments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Secured Bridge and Longer-Term Financing
Obtained significant lender support: Pender Fund advances (initial $25.0M term loan in June 2024 plus ~$21.5M in follow-ons through 2025) and a $19.0M secured term loan from BDC under the softwood lumber guarantee program (matures 2033, interest = BDC floating base rate - 60 bps). $8.0M of BDC proceeds retired short-term Pender advances and the BDC loan reduces near-term covenant risk.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Conifex guided that 2026 will be a transition year—curtailment and single-shift operations in H1 moving to steady two-shift operations in H2—with management saying a single shift is not expected to be EBITDA positive under 2026 SPF consensus pricing while a two‑shift run rate should be EBITDA positive in the closing months (conversion cost improvement of roughly $50–$70 per 1,000 board feet going to two shifts; Q4 ran at ~46% capacity). FY2025 headwinds included duty deposit rates rising from 14.4% to 35.16% plus a new 10% tariff (total 45.16%), $26.1M of duty/tariff charges expensed, a $35.7M net loss (including a $15.3M one‑time non‑cash 2023 duty underpayment), and tight liquidity addressed by Pender financings ($25M term loan June 2024, +$8.5M Q1'25, +$5M Sep/Oct'25, +$8M late 2025) and a $19M BDC loan (matures 2033, interest = BDC floating base rate −60 bps, principal repayments begin Aug 2028; $8M used to retire Pender advances); long‑term debt was temporarily reclassified as current at Dec 31, 2025 but is expected to be reversed in Q1. Management also targets >$11M of quick‑payback capital projects (>$4M EBITDA upside, <3‑year payback) and is seeking additional capital (noting some government programs have ~$30M minimums) to build sawlog inventory (regional supply ~10M m3 vs local demand ~8M m3) and secure two‑shift sustainability.Conifex Timber Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
37
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 142.75M | 127.74M | 141.16M | 231.27M | 250.53M |
| Gross Profit | 15.80M | 3.84M | -5.82M | 65.55M | 72.44M |
| EBITDA | -26.74M | -15.12M | -25.77M | 35.86M | 51.49M |
| Net Income | -35.67M | -29.78M | -30.63M | 24.49M | 27.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 207.67M | 203.88M | 218.99M | 257.26M | 231.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.93M | 3.64M | 4.19M | 8.44M | 6.35M |
| Total Debt | 87.65M | 77.32M | 63.85M | 62.80M | 59.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 157.93M | 118.04M | 103.49M | 111.00M | 101.63M |
| Stockholders Equity | 49.74M | 85.84M | 115.50M | 146.27M | 129.83M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -10.04M | -10.70M | -2.99M | 11.31M | 20.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -5.52M | -6.62M | 3.62M | 24.83M | 26.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.53M | -4.08M | -5.20M | -12.81M | -5.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.34M | 10.15M | -2.67M | -9.94M | -25.73M |
Conifex Timber Technical Analysis
Negative
0.12
Price Trends
0.13
Negative
0.13
Negative
0.21
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
44.41
Neutral
25.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, below the 50-day MA of 0.13, and below the 200-day MA of 0.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFF.
Conifex Timber Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$310.98M | 5.90 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -28.86% | -48.20% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
48 Neutral | C$1.58B | -1.73 | -27.04% | ― | 1.76% | 34.61% | |
47 Neutral | C$5.10M | -0.08 | -45.26% | ― | 10.33% | -52.20% | |
46 Neutral | C$153.09M | -1.77 | -12.20% | ― | 2.06% | -46.23% | |
45 Neutral | C$46.29M | -0.31 | -73.85% | ― | -17.95% | -97.06% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.13
-0.16
-56.14%
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
2.00
-1.29
-39.21%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
16.85
1.04
6.56%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
14.50
2.65
22.36%
TSE:CFP
Canfor
13.28
>-0.01
-0.08%
Conifex Timber Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Conifex Deepens 2025 Losses Despite Higher Lumber Revenues
Negative
Mar 23, 2026
Conifex Timber reported a significantly wider EBITDA loss of $27.5 million and a net loss of $35.7 million for 2025, as weaker lumber prices, higher duty deposit rates and tariffs drove deeper operating losses despite modest revenue growth. Lumber...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.