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Conifex Timber (TSE:CFF)
TSX:CFF
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Conifex Timber (CFF) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CFF

Conifex Timber

(TSX:CFF)

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Underperform 38 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:
C$0.00
▼(-100.00% Downside)
Conifex Timber's overall stock score is heavily impacted by its poor financial performance, which is the most significant factor. The technical analysis also indicates bearish momentum, while the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. These factors collectively suggest a challenging outlook for the stock.

Conifex Timber (CFF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Conifex Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConifex Timber Inc. primarily manufactures and sells lumber products in the United States, China, Canada, Japan, and internationally. It is involved in the timber harvesting, reforestation, and forest management activities; manufacture of finished softwood lumber from spruce, pine, and fir logs; manufacture, sale, and distribution of dimension lumber; processing logs into lumber and wood chips, as well as by-products or residues, such as trim blocks, sawdust, shavings, and barks; and providing value added lumber finishing services. It also develops bioenergy and bio products; and operates a 36 megawatt biomass power generation plant, which produces renewable energy for commercial sale. The company was formerly known as West Fourth Capital Inc. and changed its name to Conifex Timber Inc. in June 2010. Conifex Timber Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyConifex Timber generates revenue primarily through the sale of lumber products, wood chips, and other timber-related goods. The company operates sawmills that convert harvested timber into finished lumber, which is then sold to various markets, including home builders, construction companies, and wholesalers. In addition to lumber, Conifex produces wood chips, which are used for various applications, including biomass energy production. Key revenue streams also include the sale of timber from its land holdings. The company benefits from strategic partnerships within the forestry and construction sectors, allowing it to optimize its supply chain and expand its market reach. Fluctuations in lumber prices, demand for construction materials, and the overall health of the housing market significantly influence Conifex's earnings.

Conifex Timber Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2024
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted improvements in EBITDA loss, strengthening lumber prices, and surplus sawlogs availability as positive factors. However, challenges such as reductions in the allowable annual cut, legal issues with BC Hydro, and limited borrowing capacity to expand operations were noted. Overall, the sentiment leans towards optimism with significant progress made but also acknowledges existing hurdles.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Improvement in EBITDA Loss
Negative EBITDA of $3.9 million in Q3 2024, lower than the $7.1 million loss in Q2 and $6.7 million loss in Q3 2023.
Strengthening Lumber Prices
Average lumber selling price realizations increased to CAD 512 per thousand board feet in Q4, a 17.5% improvement over Q3.
Potential Positive EBITDA in Q4
Expectations to record a dramatically reduced EBITDA loss or potentially positive EBITDA in Q4 due to firm lumber prices.
Surplus of Sawlogs in Mackenzie TSA
The Mackenzie Timber Supply Area has a large surplus of sawlogs, ensuring no challenges in securing sawlogs for future operations.
Reduction in Delivered Log Costs
Achieved a modest reduction in delivered log costs due to adjustments by the Ministry of Forests and changes in supply demand dynamics.
Negative Updates
Reduction in Allowable Annual Cut
The new allowable annual cut for the Mackenzie Timber Supply Area was set at 2.39 million cubic meters, a 20% reduction from past levels.
Legal Challenges with BC Hydro
Facing legal challenges due to BC Hydro suspending electric power interconnection transactions, with an appeal pending in the Supreme Court of BC.
Limited Borrowing Headroom
Lack of borrowing headroom is preventing the move to a 2-shift operation at the sawmill complex, limiting potential production increases.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Conifex Timber Inc., CEO Ken Shields discussed several key metrics and developments. The company reported a negative EBITDA of $3.9 million for the quarter, which was an improvement from the $7.1 million loss in Q2 and the $6.7 million EBITDA loss in Q3 2023. The average lumber selling price realizations for the third quarter were CAD 436 per thousand board feet, with shipments of 29.3 million board feet, and prices improved to CAD 512 per thousand board feet in the early fourth quarter, marking a 17.5% increase. Shields highlighted the company's progress in reducing log costs and improving their position on the North American industry cost curve for SPF lumber, contributing to lower EBITDA losses compared to 2023. Looking ahead, Conifex aims to move to a two-shift operation in 2025, which would enhance their ability to achieve positive EBITDA. The company is also appealing a legal decision concerning power interconnection projects and anticipates a court hearing before the end of the year.

Conifex Timber Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Conifex Timber is facing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenues and persistent losses. The balance sheet reflects increased leverage and negative returns on equity, while the cash flow statement underscores liquidity issues with negative cash flows and declining growth rates.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Conifex Timber's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company has experienced declining revenue over the past few years, with a slight recovery in the TTM period. Gross profit margins have been volatile, and the company has struggled to maintain profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins in recent periods. The revenue growth rate in the TTM period shows a slight improvement, but overall, the income statement reflects a company facing substantial profitability issues.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a moderately leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio slightly above 1 in the TTM period. The equity ratio has been declining, suggesting increased reliance on debt financing. Return on equity has been negative in recent periods, reflecting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. While the company has maintained a stable asset base, the financial leverage and negative ROE are concerning.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Conifex Timber's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges in generating positive cash flows. The company has reported negative operating cash flows and free cash flows in recent periods, with a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. Despite a high free cash flow to net income ratio, the overall cash flow position is weak, reflecting liquidity challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue133.70M127.74M141.16M231.27M250.53M128.71M
Gross Profit16.87M3.84M-5.82M65.55M72.44M28.11M
EBITDA-5.77M-15.12M-25.77M35.86M51.49M9.72M
Net Income-23.16M-29.78M-30.63M24.49M27.20M-6.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets203.35M203.88M218.99M257.26M231.46M216.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.99M3.64M4.19M8.44M6.35M11.16M
Total Debt81.63M77.32M63.85M62.80M59.38M63.40M
Total Liabilities125.45M118.04M103.49M111.00M101.63M100.34M
Stockholders Equity77.91M85.84M115.50M146.27M129.83M116.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-12.59M-10.70M-2.99M11.31M20.33M-8.52M
Operating Cash Flow-8.55M-6.62M3.62M24.83M26.74M-6.30M
Investing Cash Flow-3.33M-4.08M-5.20M-12.81M-5.81M221.48M
Financing Cash Flow3.92M10.15M-2.67M-9.94M-25.73M-207.41M

Conifex Timber Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.19
Price Trends
50DMA
0.24
Negative
100DMA
0.28
Negative
200DMA
0.31
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
33.95
Neutral
STOCH
4.44
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.22, below the 50-day MA of 0.24, and below the 200-day MA of 0.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFF.

Conifex Timber Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
58
Neutral
C$256.93M16.894.46%9.58%-28.86%-48.20%
48
Neutral
$1.42B-3.09-15.06%1.76%34.61%
46
Neutral
C$25.44M-0.17-6.02%-15.38%94.27%
44
Neutral
C$122.05M-5.65-12.20%2.06%-46.23%
42
Neutral
$52.21M-1.69-73.85%-17.95%-97.06%
38
Underperform
C$9.38M-0.40-45.26%10.33%-52.20%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.18
-0.26
-59.09%
TSE:GFP
GreenFirst Forest Products
1.67
-3.94
-70.23%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
14.60
-2.06
-12.36%
TSE:CFX
Canfor Pulp Products
0.38
-0.48
-55.81%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
10.26
-3.78
-26.92%
TSE:CFP
Canfor
11.20
-7.09
-38.76%

Conifex Timber Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Conifex Timber Reports Increased Production Amid Financial Losses in Q3 2025
Negative
Nov 14, 2025

Conifex Timber Inc. reported a significant financial downturn in the third quarter of 2025, with a net loss of $16.6 million, compared to losses in previous quarters. The company’s lumber production increased by 9% from the previous quarter, despite challenges related to log profile and delivery delays. This increase was due to improved log availability and operational adjustments, although the financial results reflect ongoing operational and market challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFF) stock is a Sell with a C$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Conifex Timber stock, see the TSE:CFF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 22, 2025