Canfor (CFP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 219.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: 1.76%
• EPS Growth: 34.61%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,634
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): -1.48
• Shares Outstanding: 116,578,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 163,822
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 219,473
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.34
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.79
• 1Y Price Target: $15.26
• Price Target Upside: 32.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: C$12.00 ▲(4.35% Upside)

Canfor's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues and profitability issues. Technical analysis and valuation metrics further highlight the stock's struggles, while the earnings call provides a slightly positive outlook due to strategic actions and strong liquidity. However, the ongoing market challenges and financial uncertainties weigh heavily on the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of sawmills in Sweden and fleet modernization in the U.S. South enhance Canfor's production capacity and geographic diversification, positioning the company for long-term growth and improved market competitiveness.

Strong Liquidity Position

A robust liquidity position allows Canfor to navigate market uncertainties and invest in strategic initiatives, supporting long-term operational stability and growth.

Operational Improvements

Operational improvements in sourcing and cost structure enhance efficiency and competitiveness, potentially leading to better margins and financial performance over time.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenues

Declining revenues and negative margins indicate operational struggles, which can hinder Canfor's ability to invest in growth and maintain competitive positioning.

Cash Flow Challenges

Cash flow challenges limit Canfor's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives, impacting its long-term financial health and growth potential.

Weak Global Lumber Market

Weak global lumber market conditions and high duties affect profitability, posing a risk to Canfor's revenue and margin sustainability in the long term.

Canfor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Canfor Corporation (CFP) is a leading integrated forest products company based in Canada, primarily engaged in the production of lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), and other wood products. The company operates in the forestry sector, with significant operations in Canada and the United States. Canfor's core products cater to the construction, renovation, and manufacturing industries, positioning it as a key player in the North American wood products market.

How the Company Makes Money

Canfor generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wood products, including dimensional lumber, OSB, and specialty products. The company benefits from a diversified revenue model that includes both domestic and international sales, with a significant portion of its products exported to markets in Asia and Europe. Key revenue streams include the lumber segment, which is influenced by housing demand, and the panel products segment, which serves the construction and industrial sectors. Additionally, Canfor engages in partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational efficiency and product offerings, contributing to its overall financial performance. Factors such as market demand, timber prices, and production costs play crucial roles in shaping Canfor's earnings, alongside its strategic investments in technology and sustainability initiatives that bolster its competitive edge.

Canfor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Canfor is experiencing financial difficulties with declining revenues, negative profit margins, and cash flow challenges. Despite a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, the company struggles with profitability and cash generation, which are critical for future growth and stability.

Income Statement

Canfor's income statement reveals a challenging period with declining revenues and negative profit margins. The TTM data shows a gross profit margin of 12.99% and a net profit margin of -12.02%, indicating significant profitability issues. Revenue has decreased by 4% compared to the previous period, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational struggles. The company needs to address these declines to improve financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative at -18.86%, indicating that the company is not generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 56.06%, which is a positive sign of financial stability. Overall, while leverage is under control, profitability remains a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a decline in free cash flow growth by 19.74% in the TTM period, highlighting cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.16, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is -2.03, reflecting cash flow issues relative to earnings. The company needs to enhance cash flow management to support operations and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.29B	5.25B	5.43B	7.43B	7.68B	5.45B
Gross Profit	1.03B	946.70M	904.00M	2.63B	3.51B	1.92B
EBITDA	-328.90M	-487.80M	-30.50M	1.53B	2.30B	1.15B
Net Income	-647.20M	-669.00M	-326.10M	787.30M	1.34B	544.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.42B	5.57B	6.13B	6.74B	6.17B	5.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	112.90M	259.30M	627.40M	1.27B	1.35B	419.20M
Total Debt	725.00M	703.60M	399.30M	392.40M	335.80M	773.70M
Total Liabilities	2.11B	1.99B	1.85B	1.98B	2.16B	2.48B
Stockholders Equity	3.04B	3.31B	3.82B	4.22B	3.48B	2.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-293.60M	-352.90M	-432.30M	487.70M	1.49B	872.10M
Operating Cash Flow	132.70M	174.20M	154.70M	1.11B	1.91B	1.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-560.30M	-672.20M	-603.70M	-1.05B	-468.40M	-246.90M
Financing Cash Flow	104.50M	124.10M	-185.60M	-179.40M	-504.10M	-463.00M

Canfor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.96, below the 50-day MA of 12.38, and below the 200-day MA of 13.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFP.

Canfor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CFP	48 Neutral	$1.42B	-3.09	-15.06%	―	1.76%	34.61%
WFG	48 Neutral	C$6.62B	-19.44	-3.61%	2.15%	-6.67%	-168.27%
IFP	45 Neutral	$404.43M	―	-20.72%	―	-3.63%	31.61%
WEF	44 Neutral	C$122.05M	-5.65	-12.20%	―	2.06%	-46.23%
GFP	42 Neutral	$52.21M	-1.69	-73.85%	―	-17.95%	-97.06%
CFF	38 Underperform	C$9.38M	-0.40	-45.26%	―	10.33%	-52.20%

Canfor Corporate Events

Canfor Corp Navigates Mixed Earnings Amid Market Challenges

Canfor Corp’s recent earnings call revealed a mixed sentiment, highlighting both operational successes and ongoing market challenges. The company showcased significant improvements and strategic acquisitions, yet faced hurdles in the global lumber and pulp markets. While financial performance was hindered by weak demand, high duties, and increased costs, Canfor’s liquidity remains robust, providing a cushion against these adversities.

Canfor Announces Q3 2025 Results Conference Call

Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp Products Inc. have announced a joint analyst conference call scheduled for November 6, 2025, to discuss their third-quarter financial and operating results. This call will provide insights into the companies’ performance and strategies, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFP) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canfor stock, see the TSE:CFP Stock Forecast page.