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Canfor
(TSX:CFP)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
C$14.50
▲(23.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—large TTM losses and still-negative free cash flow—despite moderate leverage. Technicals are a relative positive with the stock trading above all major moving averages, while valuation remains constrained by unprofitability and no provided dividend yield. Earnings-call signals were mixed: strong lumber EBITDA improvement and solid liquidity are offset by persistent pulp weakness and significant near-term closure-related charges.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity buffer
A sizable liquidity pool (~$1.2B) provides durable runway to fund operations, capital projects and restructuring while markets and pulp cycles normalize. This reduces near-term refinancing risk, supports disciplined capex execution and gives management flexibility to pursue strategic restructuring into 2027.
Negative Factors
Sustained unprofitability
Large trailing losses indicate the business has not yet converted revenue into sustainable profits. Persistent negative operating and net margins erode retained earnings, limit reinvestment capacity, and mean recovery depends on structural improvement in commodity pricing and cost base rather than temporary market swings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity buffer
A sizable liquidity pool (~$1.2B) provides durable runway to fund operations, capital projects and restructuring while markets and pulp cycles normalize. This reduces near-term refinancing risk, supports disciplined capex execution and gives management flexibility to pursue strategic restructuring into 2027.
Read all positive factors
Canfor (CFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.77B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)157.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth2.69%
EPS Growth-2.51%
CountryCA
Employees6,406
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.61
Shares Outstanding117,341,064
10 Day Avg. Volume138,224
30 Day Avg. Volume157,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio-5.49
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$17.20Price Target Upside46.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.65B
Canfor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canfor Corporation, headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and established in 1938, functions as a fully integrated forest products firm with a global reach across the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and other international markets. Its business...
How the Company Makes Money
Canfor makes money primarily by manufacturing forest products and selling them to wholesale, distribution, and industrial customers. Its main revenue stream is the sale of softwood lumber (including specialty grades) produced at its sawmills; real...
Canfor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of meaningful operational and financial improvements in the lumber business (notably a large QoQ EBITDA increase and stronger European performance), a solid liquidity position, and strategic moves to diversify into higher-value products. Offsetting these positives are persistent weakness in pulp markets, planned closures that will generate significant near-term restructuring and impairment charges (~$65 million combined expected in Q3), regional fiber supply challenges (Alberta) and ongoing transportation and macro headwinds. Management frames the actions as necessary to create a more sustainable, lower-cost platform with benefits expected into 2027.Positive Updates
Strong Lumber EBITDA and Quarter-over-Quarter Improvement
Lumber adjusted EBITDA of $145 million in Q2, an increase of $116 million versus the prior quarter (up ~400% from roughly $29 million), driven by improved pricing, increased volumes and cost structure improvements, particularly in the U.S. South.
Negative Updates
Pulp & Paper Weakness and Q2 EBITDA Loss
Pulp and paper reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $12 million in Q2, with management stating this reflects planned maintenance downtime and continued weakness in global pulp markets driven by elevated inventories and structural market shifts; the loss widened by $4 million quarter-over-quarter.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Lumber EBITDA and Quarter-over-Quarter Improvement
Lumber adjusted EBITDA of $145 million in Q2, an increase of $116 million versus the prior quarter (up ~400% from roughly $29 million), driven by improved pricing, increased volumes and cost structure improvements, particularly in the U.S. South.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided quantified near-term guidance and actions: Q2 lumber adjusted EBITDA was $145 million (up $116 million QoQ) including $16 million of one‑time items (net of a $7 million inventory write‑down recovery), with European lumber EBITDA of $37 million and pulp & paper reporting an adjusted EBITDA loss of $12 million (down $4 million QoQ); management announced closures of the Northwood pulp mill, two Swedish sawmills and the Fox Creek sawmill and expects to record ~ $30 million of restructuring costs and ~ $35 million of asset write‑downs/impairments in Q3; liquidity stood at ~ $1.2 billion (improved by $215 million in Q2) with net debt reported excluding the $316 million duty loan, and 2026 capital spending is expected to be ~ $210 million (including ~ $35 million for pulp), with seasonal Swedish downtime typically removing >100 million board feet and the company flagging further cost savings to flow through in 2027.Canfor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.43B | 5.34B | 5.25B | 5.43B | 7.43B | 7.68B |
| Gross Profit | 199.90M | -108.70M | 946.70M | 904.00M | 2.63B | 3.51B |
| EBITDA | 66.80M | 133.20M | -487.80M | -30.50M | 1.53B | 2.30B |
| Net Income | -653.50M | -796.70M | -669.00M | -326.10M | 787.30M | 1.34B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.07B | 4.98B | 5.57B | 6.13B | 6.74B | 6.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 234.70M | 132.40M | 259.30M | 627.40M | 1.27B | 1.35B |
| Total Debt | 1.02B | 931.30M | 703.60M | 399.30M | 392.40M | 335.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.43B | 2.26B | 1.99B | 1.85B | 1.98B | 2.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.45B | 2.51B | 3.31B | 3.82B | 4.22B | 3.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -36.30M | -250.90M | -352.90M | -432.30M | 487.70M | 1.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 191.30M | 37.80M | 174.20M | 154.70M | 1.11B | 1.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -265.60M | -355.60M | -672.20M | -603.70M | -1.05B | -468.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 194.40M | 175.20M | 124.10M | -185.60M | -179.40M | -504.10M |
Canfor Technical Analysis
Positive
11.72
Price Trends
14.15
Positive
13.52
Positive
13.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.44
Negative
56.24
Neutral
49.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.68, below the 50-day MA of 14.15, and below the 200-day MA of 13.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CFP.
Canfor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$4.04B | 15.69 | 12.35% | 1.65% | 1.91% | -20.39% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$7.70B | -3.72 | -24.96% | 1.90% | -11.06% | -888.45% | |
58 Neutral | C$956.91M | -2.16 | -30.64% | ― | -7.37% | -92.84% | |
51 Neutral | C$197.97M | -2.35 | -22.88% | ― | -18.00% | -290.71% | |
50 Neutral | C$1.77B | -2.69 | -25.37% | ― | 2.69% | -2.51% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CFP
Canfor
15.10
2.29
17.88%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.