Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP)
TSX:CFP
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Canfor
(TSX:CFP)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
▲(6.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses and negative free cash flow), with only moderate balance-sheet support. Technical signals are mixed with negative momentum indicators, and valuation is difficult to support due to negative earnings. The latest earnings call adds some offset via strong corporate liquidity and strategic restructuring, but near-term market and covenant risks remain material.
Positive Factors
Asset rationalization and geographic diversification
Multi-year closures of high-cost mills and targeted investment in U.S. South and Sweden materially reduce structural cost exposure and lower industry cyclicality impact. Capacity rationalization improves long-run break-even, while geographic mix diversifies demand and log-cost risk across regions.
Negative Factors
Sustained negative profitability and weak cash generation
Persistent losses and materially negative free cash flow signal structural earnings weakness versus prior cycles. Continued cash burn limits reinvestment capacity, erodes ROE, and forces reliance on liquidity or asset sales to fund operations, undermining long-term financial resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset rationalization and geographic diversification
Multi-year closures of high-cost mills and targeted investment in U.S. South and Sweden materially reduce structural cost exposure and lower industry cyclicality impact. Capacity rationalization improves long-run break-even, while geographic mix diversifies demand and log-cost risk across regions.
Read all positive factors
Canfor (CFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)157.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth-0.13%
EPS Growth-33.42%
CountryCA
Employees6,634
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.16
Shares Outstanding119,201,270
10 Day Avg. Volume138,224
30 Day Avg. Volume157,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio-5.49
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$15.58Price Target Upside32.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.48B
Canfor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canfor Corporation operates as an integrated forest products company in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Lumber, and Pulp and Paper. The company manufactures and sells finger-jointed l...
How the Company Makes Money
Canfor makes money primarily by selling wood products and pulp products to wholesale and industrial customers.
1) Wood Products (lumber and related products)
- Primary revenue stream: Sales of dimension lumber and other solid wood products produc...
Canfor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced view: management highlighted meaningful strategic actions (mill closures, geographic diversification, targeted capex, and solid corporate liquidity) and early signs of cost improvement in Sweden and improved pricing from industry downtime. However, near-term financial performance remains under pressure with Q4 adjusted EBITDA losses in both lumber (-$8M) and pulp (-$17M), a significant $250.6M European impairment, elevated duties and tariff-related cash pressures, elevated pulp inventories, and potential covenant risk for Canfor Pulp absent a corporate transaction. The company’s strong liquidity and strategic repositioning are positives that partially offset the operational and market headwinds.Positive Updates
Strategic transformation and asset rationalization
Canfor has undertaken a multi-year transformation to strengthen its operating platform: since 2023 the company closed 9 high-cost sawmills (including 2 in 2025) representing 2.3 billion board feet of capacity, while investing in new U.S. South facilities and expanding operations in Sweden to diversify assets and improve cost competitiveness.
Negative Updates
Lumber adjusted EBITDA loss in Q4
Canfor's lumber business reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $8 million in Q4, deteriorating by $6 million versus the prior quarter, reflecting weak lumber market conditions (notably Southern Yellow Pine) and lower Canadian sales realizations after Section 232 tariffs were introduced.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic transformation and asset rationalization
Canfor has undertaken a multi-year transformation to strengthen its operating platform: since 2023 the company closed 9 high-cost sawmills (including 2 in 2025) representing 2.3 billion board feet of capacity, while investing in new U.S. South facilities and expanding operations in Sweden to diversify assets and improve cost competitiveness.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance focused on 2026 capital spending of roughly $210 million—about $175 million for lumber and $35 million for Canfor Pulp (with ~40% of the budget described as discretionary)—while warning of continued near‑term market volatility but expecting constrained supply to support higher European lumber pricing into Q2. Key metrics cited: Q4 adjusted EBITDA losses of $8 million for lumber (down $6 million QoQ) and $17 million for pulp (down $14 million QoQ), European lumber adjusted EBITDA of $42 million for 2025, a Q4 asset write‑down/impairment of $250.6 million (excluded from adjusted EBITDA), Canfor Pulp net debt of $104 million with $40 million available liquidity, Canfor (ex‑Pulp and duty loan) net debt of ≈$226 million with ≈$1.2 billion available liquidity, pulp inventory at ~47 days (about a one‑week overhang ≈0.5 million tonnes in a 25 million tonne market), and management saying it is highly probable Canfor Pulp will meet covenants in Q1 absent a transaction; they also noted 9 sawmill closures since 2023 totaling 2.3 billion board feet of capacity.Canfor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.28B | 5.34B | 5.25B | 5.43B | 7.43B | 7.68B |
| Gross Profit | 353.40M | -108.70M | 946.70M | 904.00M | 2.63B | 3.51B |
| EBITDA | -44.40M | 133.20M | -487.80M | -30.50M | 1.53B | 2.30B |
| Net Income | -837.80M | -796.70M | -669.00M | -326.10M | 787.30M | 1.34B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.06B | 4.98B | 5.57B | 6.13B | 6.74B | 6.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.20M | 132.40M | 259.30M | 627.40M | 1.27B | 1.35B |
| Total Debt | 1.06B | 931.30M | 703.60M | 399.30M | 392.40M | 335.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.43B | 2.26B | 1.99B | 1.85B | 1.98B | 2.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.44B | 2.51B | 3.31B | 3.82B | 4.22B | 3.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -187.30M | -250.90M | -352.90M | -432.30M | 487.70M | 1.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.20M | 37.80M | 174.20M | 154.70M | 1.11B | 1.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -336.20M | -355.60M | -672.20M | -603.70M | -1.05B | -468.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 219.30M | 175.20M | 124.10M | -185.60M | -179.40M | -504.10M |
Canfor Technical Analysis
Negative
11.72
Price Trends
13.72
Negative
13.19
Negative
13.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
42.85
Neutral
20.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.28, below the 50-day MA of 13.72, and below the 200-day MA of 13.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFP.
Canfor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$3.89B | 21.24 | 14.85% | 1.43% | 1.24% | -7.57% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | C$151.40M | -2.02 | -12.20% | ― | -15.14% | -1199.88% | |
47 Neutral | C$1.52B | -5.55 | -27.04% | ― | -0.13% | -33.42% | |
47 Neutral | C$6.63B | -9.62 | -23.07% | 2.21% | -11.68% | -64044.58% | |
47 Neutral | C$623.47M | -1.37 | -25.24% | ― | -7.20% | -5.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CFP
Canfor
12.71
-0.99
-7.23%
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Canfor Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Canfor Sets Virtual AGM and Q1 2026 Results Call to Boost Investor Access
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Canfor Corporation will hold its annual general meeting in a virtual-only webcast format on May 6, 2026, giving registered shareholders and duly appointed proxyholders an opportunity to vote and pose questions online, while other investors can joi...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Canfor Renews Share Buyback Program, Authorizing Repurchase of Up to 5% of Shares
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
Canfor has received regulatory clearance to renew its normal course issuer bid, authorizing the repurchase for cancellation of up to 5,821,442 common shares, or about 5% of its outstanding stock, between March 23, 2026 and March 22, 2027 through t...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Canfor Corporation Takes Canfor Pulp Private in Full Buyout
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
Canfor Corporation has completed its acquisition of all remaining shares of Canfor Pulp Products Inc., consolidating full ownership of its pulp and paper subsidiary under a court-approved plan of arrangement. Former Canfor Pulp shareholders could ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Canfor Swings to Deep Q4 Loss on Heavy Impairments and Weak Lumber, Pulp Markets
Negative
Mar 6, 2026
Canfor reported a steep fourth-quarter 2025 operating loss of $415.9 million and a net loss of $390.5 million, hurt by a $320.4 million asset write-down and impairment charge tied to its lumber and pulp and paper businesses. Even after adjusting f...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Canfor books $321 million impairment as log and pulp markets weaken
Negative
Feb 18, 2026
Canfor Corporation will take a non-cash asset write-down and impairment charge of about $321 million in its fourth-quarter 2025 results, split between $215 million in its lumber segment and $106 million in its pulp and paper segment. The move refl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.