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Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP)
TSX:CFP
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Canfor (CFP) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CFP

Canfor

(TSX:CFP)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
C$14.50
▲(1.97%Upside)
Canfor's overall stock score of 52 reflects significant financial challenges, balanced by positive strategic transformations and corporate developments. The major risks include profitability issues and external market uncertainties, while strategic diversification efforts and strong shareholder support provide some positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Export Duties
Higher export duties are likely to pressure Canfor's EBITDA.
Financial Performance
Canfor has generated a significant EBITDA loss in its North American lumber operations.
Financial Strain
Canfor has experienced a significant net cash reduction from C$1.3bn to C$262mm, indicating financial strain.

Canfor (CFP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Canfor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanfor Corporation operates as an integrated forest products company in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Lumber, and Pulp and Paper. The company manufactures and sells finger-jointed lumber, engineered wood products, wood chips and pellets, and logs, as well as custom specialty products, including strength-rated trusses, beams, and tongue-and-groove timber; and generates green energy. It also produces and sells pulp and paper products, including bleached and unbleached softwood kraft pulp, as well as bleached, colored, and unbleached kraft paper. The company was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanfor makes money primarily through the production and sale of wood products and pulp & paper. The company's revenue model is centered on its lumber segment, which involves harvesting timber from its forest lands and processing it into various wood products for construction, renovation, and industrial applications. Key revenue streams include sales of lumber, plywood, and other engineered wood products to both domestic and international markets. Additionally, Canfor generates income from its pulp and paper segment by producing pulp used in the manufacturing of tissue, paper, and other products. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global demand for wood products, lumber prices, and trade relationships. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions also play a significant role in expanding its market reach and enhancing its revenue potential.

Canfor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. Canfor demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic transformation, yet faces significant challenges due to ongoing trade disputes, volatility in lumber pricing, and potential fiber supply issues.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Canfor Pulp generated solid financial results in the first quarter with improved productivity and higher pulp sales realizations. Lumber business adjusted EBITDA was $61 million, up $44 million from the previous quarter.
Strategic Transformation and Diversification
Successful transformation with 40% of production now in the U.S. South and 70% of overall production outside of Canada, providing a more resilient and diversified platform.
Improved Geographic Mix and Cost Structure
The company benefited from an 18% increase in Southern Yellow Pine production due to new investments, and an improved geographic mix supporting profitability.
Solid Pulp Business Performance
Canfor Pulp's adjusted EBITDA was $21 million, up $9 million from the prior quarter, with a 15% increase in shipments due to improved productivity.
Negative Updates
Ongoing Trade Disputes and Uncertainty
Significant uncertainty due to trade disputes and potential elevated duties later in the year, with less than 20% of sales revenue exposed to these issues.
Volatile Lumber Pricing
Lumber pricing expected to remain volatile through 2025, affecting short-term demand and market conditions.
Challenges in Fiber Supply
Uncertainty with respect to fiber supply due to elevated duties and trade environment, potentially impacting pulp production.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter analyst call, Canfor and Canfor Pulp provided guidance indicating a robust position amidst economic uncertainties and trade disputes. The call highlighted that Canfor's transformation into a globally diversified lumber platform has resulted in a lower cost structure and a strong balance sheet, with 40% of its lumber volume now produced in the U.S. South. In Q1, Canfor's lumber business achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $61 million, an increase of $44 million from the prior quarter, attributed to higher lumber prices and improved production in the U.S. South. Canfor Pulp also reported solid results with an adjusted EBITDA of $21 million, supported by a 6% increase in pulp production and higher sales realizations. Despite anticipated volatility in lumber pricing and potential elevated duties later in the year, less than 20% of Canfor's total sales revenue is exposed to these duties. Canfor plans a capital expenditure of approximately $250 million in 2025 for its lumber business, reflecting a more modest capital plan, and anticipates opportunistically repurchasing shares throughout the year. The company maintains significant financial flexibility with $1.3 billion in available liquidity, positioning it to pursue strategic growth initiatives as opportunities arise.

Canfor Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Canfor faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues. The income statement shows negative EBIT and EBITDA, while the balance sheet remains moderately stable. Cash flow struggles are evident with a negative free cash flow, highlighting operational inefficiencies and financial risk.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Canfor's income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative EBIT and EBITDA in the most recent TTM. The gross profit margin stands at 12.99%, and the net profit margin is -12.02%, indicating profitability struggles. Revenue growth has declined by -2.57% compared to the previous year, highlighting a downward trend in sales performance.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate level of stability, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is 58.05%, indicating a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity is negative due to recent losses, impacting overall profitability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates challenges in generating free cash flow, with a negative free cash flow of -$365.8 million in the latest TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.28, showing inefficiency in converting profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is -0.58, further highlighting cash flow struggles.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.25B5.43B7.43B7.68B5.45B
Gross Profit946.70M904.00M2.63B3.51B1.92B
EBITDA-487.80M-34.40M1.53B2.30B1.15B
Net Income-669.00M-326.10M787.30M1.34B544.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.57B6.13B6.74B6.17B5.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments259.30M627.40M1.27B1.35B419.20M
Total Debt703.60M399.30M392.40M335.80M773.70M
Total Liabilities1.99B1.85B1.98B2.16B2.48B
Stockholders Equity3.31B3.82B4.22B3.48B2.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-352.90M-432.30M487.70M1.49B872.10M
Operating Cash Flow174.20M154.70M1.11B1.91B1.07B
Investing Cash Flow-672.20M-603.70M-1.05B-468.40M-246.90M
Financing Cash Flow124.10M-185.60M-179.40M-504.10M-463.00M

Canfor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price14.22
Price Trends
50DMA
13.98
Positive
100DMA
14.07
Positive
200DMA
15.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Positive
RSI
49.13
Neutral
STOCH
27.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.41, above the 50-day MA of 13.98, and below the 200-day MA of 15.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CFP.

Canfor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.49B10.771.52%2.68%2.24%-33.79%
52
Neutral
$1.64B-18.19%-2.51%-157.38%
$52.17M-16.05%
$5.57B6,251.67-1.80%0.02%
54
Neutral
C$13.86M-24.89%-7.32%10.08%
52
Neutral
C$131.45M-1.51%9.47%85.29%
$492.58M-16.90%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CFP
Canfor
14.22
-1.23
-7.96%
ICLTF
GreenFirst Forest Products
2.25
-0.16
-6.64%
WFG
West Fraser Timber Co
72.17
-13.17
-15.43%
TSE:CFF
Conifex Timber
0.35
-0.07
-16.67%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
0.41
0.00
0.00%
IFSPF
Interfor
9.52
-3.37
-26.14%

Canfor Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canfor’s Vida AB Expands Production Capacity with Swedish Acquisition
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

Canfor Corporation announced that its subsidiary, Vida AB, will acquire AB Karl Hedin Sågverk for $164 million, expanding its operations into Central Sweden. This acquisition will increase Vida’s annual production capacity by 230 million board feet, reaching a total of approximately 2.1 billion board feet. The strategic move is expected to yield annual synergies of $15 million within three years, enhancing Vida’s operating platform and diversifying its presence in Sweden. The transaction will be financed largely through cash on hand and new equity from minority Vida AB shareholders, and is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFP) stock is a Hold with a C$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canfor stock, see the TSE:CFP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Canfor to Close Estill and Darlington Sawmills Amid Market Challenges
Negative
Jun 26, 2025

Canfor Corporation announced the permanent closure of its Estill and Darlington sawmills in South Carolina, effective August 2025, due to prolonged weak market conditions and financial losses. This decision will affect approximately 290 employees and reduce the company’s U.S. lumber production capacity by 350 million board feet annually. Canfor is committed to supporting affected employees through severance payments and potential redeployment opportunities within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFP) stock is a Hold with a C$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canfor stock, see the TSE:CFP Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canfor Corporation Reports Strong Shareholder Support in Director Elections
Positive
May 13, 2025

Canfor Corporation announced the voting results from its Annual General Meeting held on May 8, 2025, in Vancouver. Shareholders voted in favor of all business items, including the election of all director nominees, with a significant 84.86% of outstanding shares represented. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to reinforce Canfor’s strategic direction and governance, potentially impacting its market position positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFP) stock is a Hold with a C$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canfor stock, see the TSE:CFP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Canfor Corporation Reports First Quarter 2025 Results Amid Global Challenges
Negative
May 8, 2025

Canfor Corporation reported a first-quarter operating loss of $29 million for 2025, with a net loss of $31 million. Despite improved North American lumber prices due to supply constraints, the company faces challenges from global economic uncertainties and US softwood lumber duties. However, Canfor’s diversified operations in Western Canada and Europe have shown improved results, particularly in the lumber and pulp segments. The company remains focused on operating efficiently and working closely with customers to navigate the uncertain market conditions.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 23, 2025