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West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (TSE:WFG)
:WFG
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West Fraser Timber Co (WFG) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:WFG

West Fraser Timber Co

(NYSE:WFG)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$102.00
▲(3.18%Upside)
West Fraser Timber Co shows a solid financial foundation with strong liquidity and low leverage, which are key strengths. However, significant challenges persist in revenue growth and profitability, exacerbated by bearish market trends and macroeconomic pressures. The company's strategic financial maneuvers and sustainability efforts provide a degree of resilience and potential for future stability.

West Fraser Timber Co (WFG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

West Fraser Timber Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWest Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, pulp, newsprint, wood chips, and other residuals and renewable energy. It offers spruce-pine-fir and southern yellow pine lumber, treated wood products, medium density fiberboard panels and plywood, oriented strand board, and laminated veneer lumber wood products. The company also provides northern bleached softwood Kraft pulp and bleached chemical thermo-mechanical pulp used to produce various paper products, including printing and writing papers, specialty grades, and various tissue products. It sells its products to major retail chains, contractor supply yards, and wholesalers, as well as industrial customers for further processing or as components for other products in Canada, the United States, China, Europe, Asia, and other countries. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. was founded in 1955 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyWest Fraser Timber Co. makes money primarily through the production and sale of wood products, including lumber, panels, and pulp. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on its vast network of manufacturing facilities, which transform raw timber into finished products for the construction, industrial, and consumer markets. Key revenue streams include sales of lumber used in residential and commercial construction, plywood and other panel products for industrial applications, and pulp for paper production. West Fraser benefits from economies of scale and cost-effective operations, as well as strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements with major customers. Additionally, the company engages in sustainable forestry practices, ensuring a steady supply of raw materials while maintaining environmental standards.

West Fraser Timber Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -3.74%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a challenging quarter for West Fraser, with decreased EBITDA in key segments and pressures from macroeconomic factors, such as housing market challenges and tariffs. However, the company maintains a strong balance sheet and has made strategic financial maneuvers to preserve liquidity and flexibility.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity
West Fraser exited Q2 with nearly $1.7 billion of available liquidity and a strong cash position net of debt, demonstrating financial stability despite market challenges.
Successful Financial Initiatives
Successfully amended and extended a $1 billion credit facility and a $300 million term loan, up from the prior $200 million, reinforcing financial flexibility.
European Business Improvement
The European business posted $2 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, an improvement from negative $2 million in the first quarter, linked to higher OSB pricing and shipments.
Negative Updates
Decline in Lumber and OSB Segments
The Lumber segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $15 million in Q2, down from $66 million in Q1, and the North America EWP segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased to $68 million from $125 million due to lower pricing and inventory valuation adjustments.
Pulp and Paper Segment Loss
The Pulp and Paper segment generated a negative $1 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 compared to a positive $7 million in Q1, attributed to an inventory write-down.
Challenges in Housing and Tariffs
New home construction in the U.S. slowed with housing starts averaging 1.32 million units due to elevated mortgage rates, impacting demand. The shifting landscape of tariffs also poses potential risks to future demand.
Lower Product Prices and Inventory Adjustments
Lower product prices for lumber and North American OSB products and inventory valuation adjustments were significant detractors compared to Q1.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, West Fraser reported $84 million in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting a 6% margin amidst a cyclical downturn. The Lumber segment faced a significant drop in adjusted EBITDA from $66 million in Q1 to $15 million in Q2, mainly due to lower pricing, higher fiber costs, and inventory valuation adjustments. The North America EWP segment also saw a decrease, with adjusted EBITDA falling from $125 million to $68 million, influenced by lower OSB pricing. Meanwhile, the Pulp and Paper segment posted a negative $1 million adjusted EBITDA, down from $7 million. Conversely, the European business improved, with adjusted EBITDA increasing from negative $2 million to $2 million, benefiting from higher OSB pricing and shipments. Despite these challenges, West Fraser maintained a robust balance sheet with $1.7 billion in available liquidity and a net cash balance of $310 million. The company adjusted its 2025 shipment guidance for SPF, SYP, and North American OSB due to softer-than-expected demand, largely attributed to challenges in housing affordability and the repair and remodeling markets. Additionally, West Fraser continues to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, including evolving tariffs and trade policies, which could further impact their operations.

West Fraser Timber Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
West Fraser Timber Co shows a stable financial structure with low leverage and strong equity. However, declining revenue and profit margins, despite positive cash flows and profitability, indicate challenges in growth and profitability that need addressing.
Income Statement
65
Positive
West Fraser Timber Co has shown a decline in total revenue from $10.5B in 2021 to $6.0B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The gross profit margin for the TTM period stands at 30.1%, with a slight improvement in EBIT margin from -4.4% in 2023 to 0.4% in TTM 2025. Net profit margin remains low at 0.03% for TTM 2025. Despite the decline in revenue, the company has managed to maintain profitability, although at a reduced level.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 in TTM 2025, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio is high at 79.1%, suggesting a stable financial structure. Stockholders' equity remains strong, providing a solid foundation for potential growth.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The company's operating cash flow was $626M in TTM 2025, ensuring sufficient liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 78.5, but free cash flow has decreased compared to previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is exceptionally high, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.17B6.45B9.70B10.52B4.59B
Gross Profit1.84B1.77B4.56B5.87B1.89B
EBITDA614.00M337.00M4.17B5.68B1.36B
Net Income-5.00M-167.00M1.98B2.95B588.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.76B9.41B9.97B10.43B4.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments641.00M900.00M1.16B1.57B460.33M
Total Debt229.00M538.00M536.00M510.00M507.39M
Total Liabilities1.81B2.19B2.35B2.78B1.70B
Stockholders Equity6.95B7.22B7.62B7.66B2.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow174.00M48.00M1.73B2.92B826.56M
Operating Cash Flow661.00M525.00M2.21B3.55B1.02B
Investing Cash Flow-318.00M-530.00M-459.00M-286.00M
Financing Cash Flow-582.00M-268.00M-2.13B-2.16B

West Fraser Timber Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price98.86
Price Trends
50DMA
101.89
Negative
100DMA
103.79
Negative
200DMA
114.72
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.69
Positive
RSI
44.24
Neutral
STOCH
28.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 98.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 101.93, below the 50-day MA of 101.89, and below the 200-day MA of 114.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WFG.

West Fraser Timber Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$4.46B13.5018.06%1.47%4.52%0.51%
75
Outperform
C$328.43M16.465.85%8.10%12.30%-36.60%
61
Neutral
C$7.63B3,150.31-1.80%0.02%-8.31%-191.58%
59
Neutral
HK$17.74B4.77-5.52%3.45%-3.57%-61.41%
52
Neutral
C$1.64B-18.19%-2.51%-157.38%
52
Neutral
C$131.45M-1.51%9.47%85.29%
46
Neutral
$674.56M-16.90%-10.70%10.74%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:WFG
West Fraser Timber Co
98.86
-19.33
-16.35%
TSE:IFP
Interfor
13.06
-4.69
-26.42%
TSE:SJ
Stella-Jones
80.71
-12.96
-13.83%
TSE:CFP
Canfor
14.22
-1.23
-7.96%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
0.41
0.00
0.00%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
18.27
1.12
6.53%

West Fraser Timber Co Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
West Fraser Enhances Liquidity with Credit Facility Renewal
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. has announced the renewal and extension of its $1 billion credit facility to May 2030 and an increase in its term loan to $300 million, maturing in May 2028. This strategic financial move enhances the company’s liquidity and financial flexibility, positioning it strongly for future operations and stability in the wood products industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WFG) stock is a Buy with a C$125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on West Fraser Timber Co stock, see the TSE:WFG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
West Fraser Releases 2024 Sustainability Report Highlighting Key Achievements
Positive
May 22, 2025

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant achievements in environmental, social, and governance goals. Key accomplishments include enhanced safety training, a substantial reduction in carbon emissions, sustainable forest management, partnerships with Indigenous Nations, and community investments. These initiatives underscore West Fraser’s commitment to sustainability and responsible resource management, potentially strengthening its industry position and stakeholder relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WFG) stock is a Buy with a C$125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on West Fraser Timber Co stock, see the TSE:WFG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025