West Fraser Timber Co (TSE:WFG)
TSX:WFG
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West Fraser Timber Co
(TSX:WFG)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$84.00
▼(-8.17% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak current financial performance (TTM losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum). These are partially offset by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and an earnings-call narrative showing operational improvement and solid liquidity, plus a modest dividend yield despite loss-making results.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity buffer
A >$1.2B liquidity buffer provides durable financial flexibility through cyclical downturns, allowing the company to fund operating losses, sustain necessary capex, and avoid forced asset sales. This runway supports executing restructuring and ramp‑ups without immediate refinancing risk.
Negative Factors
Severe profitability deterioration
A dramatic EBITDA collapse signals that pricing, mix and/or cost absorption failed amid weaker demand. Such an outsized decline indicates persistent cyclicality and operating leverage that can keep returns depressed and equity erosion if recovery in end markets is slow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity buffer
A >$1.2B liquidity buffer provides durable financial flexibility through cyclical downturns, allowing the company to fund operating losses, sustain necessary capex, and avoid forced asset sales. This runway supports executing restructuring and ramp‑ups without immediate refinancing risk.
Read all positive factors
West Fraser Timber Co (WFG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$6.39B
Dividend Yield2.21%
Average Volume (3M)142.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth-11.68%
EPS Growth-64044.58%
CountryCA
Employees9,700
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-18.60
Shares Outstanding76,018,340
10 Day Avg. Volume127,894
30 Day Avg. Volume142,312
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.13
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio-21.05
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$112.70Price Target Upside23.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.72B
West Fraser Timber Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, pulp, newsprint, wood chips, and other residuals and renewable energy. It offers spr...
How the Company Makes Money
West Fraser makes money primarily by manufacturing commodity and value-added wood products and selling them to wholesalers, retailers, distributors, and industrial customers. Its major revenue streams include: (1) Lumber: producing softwood lumber...
West Fraser Timber Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a cautious but constructive tone: the company reported a meaningful sequential operational turnaround (underlying adjusted EBITDA of $48M excluding duty adjustments), improved segment performance, continued portfolio optimization and strong liquidity. However, material near-term headwinds remain—headline negative EBITDA driven by large noncash duty adjustments, a seasonal working-capital cash outflow, and rising resin and energy costs that are expected to pressure margins in Q2. Management emphasized balance-sheet strength and operational initiatives that position the company to navigate uncertainty while pausing share repurchases to preserve liquidity.Positive Updates
Sequential Turnaround and Underlying EBITDA
Reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $66M in Q1 2026 includes $114M of noncash prior-period duty adjustments; excluding those duties the underlying business generated $48M of adjusted EBITDA, a turnaround of over $120M versus Q4 2025.
Negative Updates
Headline Negative Adjusted EBITDA and Large Duty Adjustments
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was negative $66M on a reported basis due to two large noncash softwood lumber duty-related adjustments totaling $114M (preliminary 2024 Commerce rates and revised liquidation estimates).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sequential Turnaround and Underlying EBITDA
Reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $66M in Q1 2026 includes $114M of noncash prior-period duty adjustments; excluding those duties the underlying business generated $48M of adjusted EBITDA, a turnaround of over $120M versus Q4 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said they made no changes to 2026 shipment guidance or their capital‑expenditure range and expect the seasonal log‑inventory build to unwind in Q2–Q3; they also noted preliminary AR7 duty rates are poised to decline roughly 6%. Cost pressures (resin — ~25% of OSB input cost — and transportation/diesel) should be more visible in Q2 (resin) and into Q3 (Western Canada diesel), but the magnitude is hard to quantify. Q1 included negative $66M of adjusted EBITDA (which contained $114M of non‑cash duty adjustments), with the underlying business generating about $48M (lumber ex‑duties +$30M vs Q4’s -$57M, North American EWP +$11M, Europe +$10M — the highest Europe EBITDA since Q2‑2023); SYP shipments were +4% vs Q4. The balance sheet remains solid with liquidity ≈$900M, cash flow from operations of -$170M in Q1, net debt $457M and net‑debt‑to‑capital in the single digits; share repurchases were paused in Q1 while dividends were paid, the high‑level Alberta OSB mill wind‑down (~860M sf) is complete, Henderson is four months into ramp‑up, and Bemidji capital work is largely delivered.West Fraser Timber Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.74B | 5.46B | 6.17B | 6.44B | 9.79B | 10.43B |
| Gross Profit | 572.85M | 1.28B | 1.84B | 1.76B | 4.60B | 5.82B |
| EBITDA | -1.02B | -608.00M | 654.38M | 534.72M | 3.23B | 4.48B |
| Net Income | -1.44B | -937.00M | ― | -166.60M | 1.99B | 2.92B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.68B | 7.62B | 8.75B | 9.35B | 10.07B | 10.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 81.06M | 202.00M | 640.62M | 893.53M | 1.17B | 1.55B |
| Total Debt | 528.37M | 333.00M | 228.86M | 534.13M | 541.26M | 522.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.03B | 1.77B | 1.80B | 2.18B | 2.38B | 2.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.64B | 5.85B | 6.95B | 7.17B | 7.69B | 7.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -388.20M | -315.00M | 180.88M | 72.15M | 1.67B | 2.83B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.73M | 96.00M | 644.49M | 556.89M | 2.14B | 3.46B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -383.87M | -380.00M | -343.67M | -586.36M | -461.83M | -281.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 72.06M | -167.00M | -528.35M | -247.96M | -2.04B | -2.09B |
West Fraser Timber Co Technical Analysis
Positive
91.47
Price Trends
91.00
Positive
89.69
Positive
92.38
Negative
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
55.26
Neutral
53.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 91.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.14, above the 50-day MA of 91.00, and below the 200-day MA of 92.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:WFG.
West Fraser Timber Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$3.98B | 21.24 | 14.85% | 1.43% | 1.24% | -7.57% | |
63 Neutral | C$320.76M | 22.72 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -23.77% | 142.01% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | C$145.60M | -2.02 | -12.20% | ― | -15.14% | -1199.88% | |
47 Neutral | C$6.39B | -9.62 | -23.07% | 2.21% | -11.68% | -64044.58% | |
47 Neutral | C$563.62M | -2.64 | -28.72% | ― | -7.89% | -26.09% | |
47 Neutral | C$1.42B | -5.55 | -27.04% | ― | -0.13% | -33.42% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:WFG
West Fraser Timber Co
81.57
-21.29
-20.70%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.