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Western Forest Prod (TSE:WEF)
TSX:WEF
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Western Forest Prod (WEF) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:WEF

Western Forest Prod

(TSX:WEF)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.00
▼(-1.96% Downside)
Western Forest Prod's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.
Positive Factors
Sustainable Forest Management
The company's focus on sustainable practices ensures long-term resource availability and compliance with environmental regulations, enhancing its reputation and access to premium markets.
Strategic Partnerships
Strong partnerships and client relationships expand market reach and stabilize revenue streams, providing a competitive edge in the forestry sector.
Low Leverage
Low leverage enhances financial stability and flexibility, allowing the company to navigate economic fluctuations and invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Declining Profitability
Sustained negative profitability indicates operational challenges and may hinder the company's ability to reinvest in its business and maintain competitive positioning.
Cash Flow Volatility
Volatile cash flows can strain operational liquidity and limit the company's ability to fund new projects or manage debt, impacting long-term financial health.
Negative Revenue Growth
Declining revenue growth suggests weakening demand for products, which could affect market share and long-term business sustainability if not addressed.

Western Forest Prod (WEF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Western Forest Prod Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWestern Forest Products Inc. (WEF) is a Canadian forest products company based in British Columbia. The company operates primarily in the forestry sector, focusing on the sustainable harvesting and production of a diverse array of timber and wood products. Its core products include high-quality lumber, logs, and wood chips, which are utilized in various industries such as construction, furniture, and pulp and paper. Western Forest Products is committed to sustainable forest management practices and serves both domestic and international markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyWestern Forest Products generates revenue through its comprehensive portfolio of wood-based products. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of lumber, logs, and wood chips. Lumber sales are a significant contributor to its earnings, with products tailored for construction, industrial, and specialty markets. Timber harvested from its forest tenure and private lands is sold as logs, targeting both domestic lumber mills and international buyers. Additionally, wood chips, a byproduct of lumber processing, are sold primarily to pulp and paper manufacturers. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term relationships with clients across North America and Asia, enhancing its market reach and revenue potential. Furthermore, Western Forest Products' focus on sustainable forest management and certification helps it maintain a competitive advantage and access premium markets.

Western Forest Prod Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights significant improvements in financial performance, strategic debt reduction, and operational efficiency. However, challenges remain, particularly regarding increased softwood lumber duties and ongoing uncertainties in U.S. trade policy. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a strong balance sheet and is focused on strategic growth initiatives.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significantly Improved Financial Results
Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $3.5 million, compared to negative $4.2 million in the same period last year, driven by higher lumber shipments and prices, stronger U.S. dollar exchange rates, and improved log prices and sales mix.
Debt Reduction and Credit Facility Extension
The company significantly reduced its debt, ending the quarter with a net debt-to-cap ratio of 4%, and extended its $250 million credit facility for three years to July 2028.
Successful Strategic Initiatives
Ratified a new six-year collective agreement with the USW, completed non-core asset sales for $76.5 million, and advanced site preparation for continuous dry kilns, with support from the BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund to reimburse up to $7.5 million of eligible expenses.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Achieved 90% operational uptime at the Duke Point sawmill and above-target uptime of 99% for the first continuous kiln at the Saltair Sawmill.
Strong Sales and Marketing Performance
Wholesale lumber shipment growth of 28% year-over-year, with efforts to diversify the customer base and focus on strategic accounts.
Negative Updates
Increased Softwood Lumber Duties
Preliminary combined softwood lumber duty rate applicable to Western is approximately 34%, with potential additional non-cash duty expense of approximately US$43 million plus accrued interest of US$7 million in the second half of 2025.
Harvest Permitting Delays
Permitting delays in some tenures led to lean log inventories for certain BC sawmills.
U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty
Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and trade measures, including potential impacts from the Section 232 investigation, could affect market dynamics and pricing strategies.
Company Guidance
During the Q1 2025 results call, Western Forest Products highlighted several key metrics reflecting improved financial performance and strategic progress. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 million, a significant improvement from the negative $4.2 million in the same period last year. This was driven by increased lumber shipments and prices, a stronger U.S. dollar exchange rate, and improved log prices and sales mix, despite facing higher softwood lumber duties and lower external log sales volume. Western also completed significant non-core asset sales, generating $76.5 million in gross proceeds, and extended the maturity of its $250 million credit facility to 2028. The company also reported improvements in inventory turnover rates, with log and lumber turnover ratios rising by 6% and 12%, respectively. Additionally, Western reduced its debt, ending the quarter with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 4%. The company's strategic CapEx plans for 2025 include expenditures of $60 million to $65 million, with $30 million allocated to completing two continuous kilns. Despite uncertainties in the U.S. trade policy and potential tariffs, Western emphasized its focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet and diversifying its market presence to mitigate risks.

Western Forest Prod Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Western Forest Prod faces financial difficulties with declining revenues and profitability. The income statement shows negative net profit and EBIT margins, while the balance sheet is stable with low leverage. Cash flow volatility is a concern, indicating the need for strategic adjustments.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Western Forest Prod has faced declining revenue and profitability over recent periods. The TTM data shows a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative, reflecting a downturn in sales. However, the company has maintained a positive EBITDA margin, suggesting some operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity has been negative in recent periods, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals significant volatility, with negative free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but free cash flow to net income is low, indicating cash flow challenges. Historical data shows better cash flow management, but recent trends are concerning.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.07B1.06B1.02B1.44B1.42B964.90M
Gross Profit72.20M90.20M50.60M254.50M399.00M171.60M
EBITDA-4.70M13.70M-35.10M137.00M317.70M107.00M
Net Income-21.60M-30.40M-68.50M61.70M201.40M33.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets837.60M915.50M915.40M932.80M959.00M852.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.20M7.90M2.30M15.80M130.00M2.90M
Total Debt50.30M105.00M104.60M20.60M18.30M93.70M
Total Liabilities279.30M349.20M347.50M281.10M341.80M346.60M
Stockholders Equity550.70M558.20M565.00M647.20M612.10M504.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-400.00K-13.30M-78.20M-56.80M248.50M61.70M
Operating Cash Flow34.90M20.10M-33.80M-10.30M281.60M80.40M
Investing Cash Flow39.80M3.00M-38.60M-59.90M38.70M-14.50M
Financing Cash Flow-74.80M-17.50M58.90M-44.00M-193.20M-65.10M

Western Forest Prod Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price12.24
Price Trends
50DMA
12.38
Negative
100DMA
12.16
Positive
200DMA
12.45
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
45.45
Neutral
STOCH
27.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WEF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.44, below the 50-day MA of 12.38, and below the 200-day MA of 12.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WEF.

Western Forest Prod Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.29B7.21-0.06%2.89%2.87%-36.73%
48
Neutral
C$130.92M-3.84%3.89%49.05%
$45.15M-13.50%
$5.84B6,251.67-1.80%1.73%
60
Neutral
C$311.54M21.584.24%8.61%-26.79%-57.05%
$496.13M-11.53%
$1.16B-19.38%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
12.33
-0.57
-4.42%
ICLTF
GreenFirst Forest Products
2.00
-1.10
-35.48%
WFG
West Fraser Timber Co
74.08
-11.34
-13.28%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
17.19
1.02
6.31%
IFSPF
Interfor
9.49
-3.10
-24.62%
CFPZF
Canfor
9.79
-0.86
-8.08%

Western Forest Prod Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Western Forest Products Faces Financial and Operational Challenges in Q2 2025
Negative
Aug 7, 2025

Western Forest Products Inc. reported a challenging second quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million, significantly down from $9.4 million in the same period last year, primarily due to a $3.6 million inventory provision expense. The company faced a net loss of $17.4 million, compared to a net loss of $5.7 million in the previous year, amid declining lumber prices and operational challenges, including a fire at the Columbia Vista Sawmill and a strike at the La-kwa sa muqw Forestry Limited Partnership. Western is focusing on transitioning to higher-value products by advancing construction of continuous dry kilns, although some projects have been deferred to maintain financial stability. The company is also dealing with the impact of the US Department of Commerce’s antidumping rates, which could lead to significant export tax expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WEF) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Forest Prod stock, see the TSE:WEF Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesStock Split
Western Forest Products Announces Share Consolidation Effective Date
Neutral
Jul 24, 2025

Western Forest Products Inc. announced the effective date for the consolidation of its common shares, which will reduce the number of issued and outstanding shares from approximately 316.7 million to about 10.6 million. The Toronto Stock Exchange has approved this share consolidation, and trading on a post-consolidation basis will commence on July 28, 2025. This move is expected to streamline the company’s share structure, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception. The consolidation will involve adjustments to stock options and other share units, with Computershare acting as the exchange agent to facilitate the process for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WEF) stock is a Hold with a C$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Forest Prod stock, see the TSE:WEF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Western Forest Products to Release Q2 2025 Results and Host Conference Call
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

Western Forest Products Inc. announced the release date for its second quarter 2025 financial and operating results, which will be available on August 7, 2025. The company will host a conference call on August 8, 2025, featuring discussions by key executives, including the CEO, CFO, and Senior Vice President, on the results and a Q&A session with analysts. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market position and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WEF) stock is a Hold with a C$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Forest Prod stock, see the TSE:WEF Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesStock Split
Western Forest Products Announces Share Consolidation
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

Western Forest Products Inc. has announced the implementation of a share consolidation, consolidating its common shares on a 1-for-30 basis, following shareholder approval. This move, pending final regulatory approval, aims to streamline the company’s share structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WEF) stock is a Hold with a C$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Forest Prod stock, see the TSE:WEF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Fire Renders Western Forest Products’ Columbia Vista Sawmill Inoperable
Negative
Jun 30, 2025

Western Forest Products Inc. announced that its Columbia Vista Division sawmill in Vancouver, Washington, has been extensively damaged by a fire, rendering it inoperable. The mill, which produced 53 million board feet of lumber in 2024, primarily focused on Douglas Fir specialty products for Japan and U.S. markets. While no injuries were reported, the incident may impact the company’s operations and market supply, necessitating an investigation and assessment to determine the next steps.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WEF) stock is a Hold with a C$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Forest Prod stock, see the TSE:WEF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2025